Victorian Owners and Breeders Race Day at Caulfield is headlined by The Showdown, which is exclusive to two-year-olds and $1 million in prize money. Other highlights for the day include the VOBIS Gold Sprint.

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Race 2

12:40pm

Suggested

Mandela Effect (No.1) & Call It A Day (No.5)

Dangers

Renewal (No.3) & Ocean Deep (No.10)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield today for their big Vobis race day. I have to admit, I find these days sometimes to be a bit difficult from a punting perspective. The market typically zeros in on a couple of runners or in some races one runner given the compressed weights scales. Often a far inferior horse is carrying a similar weight to that of a well performed galloper. That generally makes finding the winner a bit easier, but from a punting perspective there can be a lack of value. Last year on this day quite a few short priced favourites got beat that were considered good things so it will be interesting to see how today plays out. There has been a bit of rain about Melbourne yesterday but these Melbourne tracks just drain so well and as a result we are still racing on a good track to kick things off with the rail out five metres. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 1400m. It was hard not to be impressed with the win of this Tasmanian galloper in Mandela Effect at Bendigo. He sat off the pace, really built into his work nicely and was strong through the line. That was his sixth win from his last seven starts. Put simply the horse is just flying. I think he will be even better here going to the 1400m. He draws a nice middle gate for Lachie King to get a run just off the speed and providing he goes on from his last run I think he will be winning here and the price looks quite acceptable though he is trimming up now from what we saw available yesterday. I think if he is to get beat it will be by Call It A Day. This horse just simply ran his rivals into the ground here two weeks ago. That is probably his chance of victory again here today. He will get out rolling in front and hopefully pinch a gap on Mandela Effect and that could prove decisive. He ran good time last start and last campaign he was a horse who really held his form once he found it so I think he is the clear danger. He is probably going to kick clear at the top of the straight and look the winner so I will save on him so we have something to cheer regardless but Mandela Effect is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Mandela Effect here and save with $25 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:15pm

Suggested

Twitchy Frank (No.1) & Spanner Head (No.3)

Dangers

Truly Discreet (No.2) & Think I’m Dreaming (No.5)

We get to the first of these Vobis races here and this one is for the mares over the 1400m. Certainly on weights Twitchy Frank looks well placed. This mare has found herself in the Tasmanian stable of Adam Trinder after formerly being with Darren Weir. I thought her run last start at Bendigo was good and reckon that might have been a tune up run for this. She was over four weeks between runs there and was a fairly notable drifter in the market from the time prices first went up to the time they jumped. She led the field up but was run down late by Miss Siska who obviously went to Sydney and ran well in the big Group One mares race. She is four weeks between runs again but meets both rivals that come out of that Bendigo race significantly better at the weights here. I expect her to roll forward in the small field from gate five and be hard to beat. I am keeping Spanner Head on side. This is a mare with a touch of class on her side resuming from a break. She typically races well fresh too. I think she is the bit of x-factor in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run well here fresh. I couldn’t find a jump out for her despite extensive searching (the sooner they get these into the form guides the better). The Archie Alexander team is going well though and I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to keep her on side and save behind Twitchy Frank.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Twitchy Frank here and save with $25 the win on Spanner Head!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

2:30pm

Suggested

Fine Dane (No.5), More Bricks (No.6) & Thine Is The Power (No.9)

Dangers

Halvorsen (No.1) & Columbus Circle (No.2)

This is another Vobis race. This one is for the three year olds over the 1100m. This is a good race though. There are no standouts here and it is quite an even bunch of horses and an open betting race. There aren’t too many stand outs in this race. There are quite a few different form lines coming together though. I am a bit here nor there with the form of Halvorsen and Columbus Circle through the 1000m race here two weeks ago and am leaning to a couple of other form lines. Fine Dane has been racing well this time in and his form around Anjana at his past couple of runs certainly reads quite well. The form around Anjana has been quite good and she went to Adelaide and ran well in a good race there behind Humma Mumma and Behemoth. Fine Dane has been pretty competitive with her and I just feel that form might be a fraction stronger. He draws gate one so he is going to land right on the speed and get every chance and the Moloney stable is in a rich vein of form. I think he will just need a touch of luck from that inside gate and he will be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Thine Is The Power has form around Fine Dane and for that reason I want to be with her also. She was five weeks between runs last Saturday when hitting the line strongly behind Graceful Storm and Thrillster and I like her on the quick back up here. Her form right through the campaign has been strong and two starts ago she was just touched off by Causeway Girl who we have seen run really well in Sydney in strong grade. I think that form is good, she draws gate three here to hopefully hold a position a little closer to the speed and if she can do that and the breaks come her way she can be in the finish. Happy to have her in my corner. I am also going to keep More Bricks on side who has his first run for the Preusker yard here. He resumed as a gelding and was given a solid hit out in a recent Ararat jump out. He is a horse that has shown good talent in his career so far and at double figure odds I am happy to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Thine Is The Power, $30 the win on Fine Dane and $15 the win on More Bricks!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:50pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.1)

Dangers

Mr Quickie (No.8)

This is another Vobis race here over the 2000m for the older gallopers. It is a small field and the market has clearly narrowed it down to two winning chances in Mahamedeis and Mr Quickie. I have to admit when I did the form for the race I had them a lot closer to each other in my market and was very surprised to see Mr Quickie at around the $1.60-70 mark and Mahamedeis $3+ when I looked at the actual odds. For that reason even though I didn’t have a lot between them I was more than happy to be having something on Mahamedeis. The horse is clearly in good form this time in. He did enough first up behind Widgee Turf at Flemington before being pretty unlucky in the Golden Mile where you can argue he probably should have won that race. Then he came here to Caulfield two weeks ago and god the job done in strong fashion. Plain Ciel ran third in that race and came out and won the Easter Cup. Once he struck winning form last campaign he really went on with the job and I would be surprised if he didn’t again this time around. With Runaway engaged in the race for Gai I think that should ensure a solid tempo and I am just a little bit more convinced about Mahamedeis being strong at the end of a solidly run 2000m. Mr Quickie has won over the 2000m but it was in lower grade and he just got there on that occasion. That is probably more a theory than anything but I just think Mahamedeis at this stage has the score on the board and the $3+ gives us a great betting opportunity so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Mahamedeis here and will lock in the $3.40 about him with SportsBet!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Iconoclasm (No.3) & Moonlight Ruby (No.7)

Dangers

Ashlor (No.1) & Miss Leonidas (No.10)

This is a good sprint race to finish the day on. The market has narrowed it down to three winning chances mainly in AshlorIconoclasm and Miss Leonidas. Ideally I really wanted to back Miss Leonidas and Iconoclasm. There just isn’t enough fat in the market though with Miss Leonidas around the $2.50 mark and the money continuing to come in for Iconoclasm into just over $3 from around a $4 price yesterday. I may be a little bit swayed by the price but I am going to be in the corner of Iconcoclasm. I think he is just a darned good horse and first up here for a white hot Danny O’Brien stable he should be ready to run a big race fresh. His Flemington jump out looked good enough. He wasn’t asked to do a lot but I thought he got through the line strongly and had a fair bit more to give. I am just banking on a couple of the speed horses overdoing it a bit up front and hoping Craig Williams can just come off their backs late and be really strong to run over the top of them. If that scenario comes to fruition hopefully we can be ending on a high. I am really scared of Miss Leonidas but after discussing her at length with Adam Blencowe in Sydney a few weeks back and then not taking the good odds about her last start when she won, it is hard to come back in at the $2.40 today given we missed the price last time out so hoping Iconoclasm can run her down in the final stages. The one at odds I am going to have a small bet on is Moonlight Ruby. This is a lightly raced mare who looks a bit out of her depth here but she did trial really well recently. I jotted her down post that trial as a horse to follow first up. I probably didn’t expect to see her in a race of this nature, I was thinking more a Thursday night at Pakenham. Because she is here though she is $20-30 and she draws well and should go well fresh so I am going to have something small on her just in case as I would kick myself if she saluted and I wasn’t on. A couple of these sprinters aren’t 100% consistent either so an upset isn’t completely out of the question.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Iconoclasm here and will save with $10 the win on Moonlight Ruby!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 4

1:35pm

Suggested

Pecans (No.1), Irithea (No.3) & Aqua D’ivina (No.5)

Dangers

Manicure (No.2) & Multaja (No.6)

Prepare yourselves for pain punters! I am having a couple of bets at Hawkesbury. I swear that I will never bet at this meeting ever again as I never seem to win there and it isn’t a track that I bet at often either. It is also an ordinary track to watch races on TV with the horrible camera angle. This is their big day though. It is a stand alone Saturday in New South Wales and it is their Cup Day so there are some good horses going around and I have found three races to bet into. Just a quick note, I did receive a tip for a horse in the fifth race which is the Highway for Bullseye Score. He is nice each way odds. On doing the form for the race myself I couldn’t really find an angle but if you want to have a bet, I am passing that one on, I will probably have something small each way for an interest. Let’s get into the races that I am actually confident in. We are racing on a good track and the first of those races is the Hawkesbury Crown which is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares. Almost immediately when you put two Godolphin horses as your dangers you get nervous. Their stable is flying but I am taking on Manicure and Multaja here. Irithea bypassed a lot of the main autumn races and she might reap the benefits of that post carnival in races like this. She resumed two weeks ago when a brave second behind White Moss. She had to carry the field up to the runaway leader in Quilista there and only just failed. Providing she hasn’t been flattened by that tough first up run here I think she is going to prove hard to hold out here. She fraws ideally in gate four to roll forward and get up on speed and she typically improves from her first up run to her second up run. If she does that here she is going to take some beating so happy to be with her. Pecans unlike me loves Hawkesbury. For that reason she looks worth a bet here. She is unbeaten in two runs here having won this race last year and then another feature race back in November defeating the males. She has had two trials leading into this and her most recent one showed she is right on track. She draws out but should roll forward for Corey Brown and she just ticks a lot of boxes. She likes it here, she goes well fresh and she loves this distance, I have to have something on her. I also want to keep Aqua D’ivina on side. This is a mare I have a lot of time for. I thought she closed off nicely in her recent trial with plenty still left in the tank. While this is short of her best trip, the small field means she probably won’t be too far off them in the run. She is a mare I don’t think we have seen the best of either yet so I want to keep her on side at the double figure odds just in case.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Irithea here and save with $20 the win on Pecans and $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Quackerjack (No.3) & Eawase (No.8)

Dangers

Trope (No.5) & Kylease (No.9)

This is another one of the features on the program. It is the Hawkesbury Guineas over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a pretty deep and challenging race. There are a few different form lines coming together. Kylease and Trope have come up the two most fancied in the market. Both are getting pretty deep into their first campaigns here and I just thought they might be a bit of a risk here. I am betting around them. Military Zone was touched off as an odds on favourite first up at Gosford when finishing sixth of ten. He was only beaten a length though and I am pretty confident that run was used as a tune up for this race. He flies second up this galloper. Last campaign he was ridden very quietly first up in a race at Randwick where he hit the line hard from the back late before going to Gosford and winning the Gosford Guineas second up. I am hoping for a repeat here this campaign by coming here and winning the Hawkesbury Guineas second up. He draws a nice middle gate for J-Mac, it is only a field of nine so he shouldn’t be too far off them and he is the one I can see really hitting the line hard late. Happy to be with him. I am keeping Quackerjack on side also. He resumed as a gelding and got the job done well on the Kensington track. I just think he might be the one in the race to really apply the pressure to Kylease and make this a pretty testing 1400m race. That will play into his hands. Him and Sheriff will both show speed and come across from the wide draw to either take up the running or apply the pressure to Kylease depending on if Corey Brown holds the front on her. Either way I think the pressure will be there and that might see Quackerjack come into his own and just keep grinding away. Happy to be with him here. I am also going to have something small on Eawase. Her two runs back have been good and I am convinced she is a filly with real talent, the stable are just still working her out. If that pressure is on up front then she might be the one swooping late so at good odds I will have something small on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here, $25 the win on Quackerjack and $10 the win on Eawase!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Kaonic (No.4), Tumultuous (No.5), Black On Gold (No.7) & Zourkhan (No.10)

Dangers

Aloisia (No.3) & Archedemus (No.11)

This is the Hawkesbury Cup, or the Waller Cup whichever way you want to look at it. Chris Waller saddles up seven of the twelve runners. I am playing this race pretty wide with a few of his roughies. All four horses I am backing are Waller horses but a couple are at bigger odds. My main starting point for the race was to take on Archedemus. I thought he got out in time at Randwick last start in the Championship final for the provincial gallopers but was pretty weak through the line over the 1400m. I don’t see him running out a strong mile here even if there is a consensus that he will appreciate not racing back inside horses here today and that was more the reason for him not finishing off last time out. Either way at the price I think he is a risk. Kaonic gets back on to a firmer surface here and that should hopefully see him run an improved race. He has a good record over the distance, he draws well for James McDonald and an improved run certainly wouldn’t surprise me here. His win on Melbourne Cup Day last year was so dominant I just think if he can get back to anything like that form here then he is going to be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Zourkhan is pretty easy to like. He resumed from a spell with an excellent first up run behind Star Of The Seas and he beat home Mahalangur in that race who came out and won last Saturday so he has a bit going for him. He gets right down in the weights here to just 53kgs from a good draw for Jay Ford. He typically goes very well second up and he has obviously come back in good order so I am keen to be with him. The other two Waller horses I am backing are resuming and at bigger odds. Tumultuous seems to save his best for the Gold Coast around Magic Millions time but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a race here. He is fresh over the mile with Josh Parr on board from a good middle gate and I thought his recent trial was very nice. He wasn’t beaten far and looked to have plenty more to give. He has come up around the $12-15 mark in this race and in a race that looks pretty even I thought he was worth a ticket. Black On Gold is the other one at really big odds I am having something on. The key for him here is that he gets on to a firm surface. He hasn’t been asked to do much at all in his trials leading into this but he has run well when fresh in the past. I just thought the odds that he come up made him worth a small bet here. He is around the $30-40 mark and at that price is surely worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Zourkhan, $20 the win on Kaonic and $10 the win on Tumultuous and Black On Gold!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:00pm

Suggested

Lota Creek Gold (No.6), Insensata (No.13) & Mymming (No.14)

Dangers

Impasse (No.5) & Shogun Sun (No.12)

Racing returns to Eagle Farm this Saturday in Brisbane and the carnival is starting to really heat up. The weather has finally taken a turn for the better up north too and we will be racing on a good track for what is a really good meeting. I think it is more of a watch and learn meeting then one to dive into from a punting perspective. A lot of horses are kicking off their campaigns a few are trying to carry Sydney form from their carnival through to up here and then you have the locals trying to make the step up to take on the challengers. For that reason I am a bit wary today but have still found four races to bet into. I am kicking off in the third race which is over the mile. The mile is probably the key factor here. Shogun Sun has come up a short priced favourite in the early markets and I just think he is a bit of a question mark at the mile. For that reason I thought there were a couple of opportunities around him. Mymminghas come back from a spell in really good form and I think she can run a big race here again. She is proven over the mile stays down in the weights and from a good draw I can see her being really strong late. I am happy to be with her. Insensata makes the journey north having been scratched from the Hawkesbury Cup. This would be the easiest race she has contested for some time. She has been taking on some pretty handy races in Sydney over the carnival recently and will appreciate the class drop here. She draws gate two and shouldn’t have to do too much work at all early so happy to have something on her around that $8 mark. The one I am saving on is Lota Creek Gold. I think he might be ready to show something here at his third run back from a spell. He draws out but looks likely to roll forward and control things out in front. If he can roll along and get his rivals chasing he might be hard to get past so happy to have something on him at the big odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on both Insensata and Mymming here and will save with $10 the win on Lots creek Gold!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 5

1:08pm

Suggested

Garibaldi (No.2) & Deep Sea (No.5)

Dangers

Jagged Edge (No.7) & Yitai Synergy (No.11)

This is the big two year old race on the program. It is the listed Dalrello Stakes over the 1000m. We see some Sydney blood arrive up north here with Yitai Synergy and Deep Sea coming up for the Snowden and Newnham camps respectively. Yitai Synergy has been a bit of a boom trial horse but when she got to the races just after Christmas in December I thought she was pretty ordinary. She has again trialled really nicely leading into this first up run and I obviously respect the stable and jockey from the good draw but I want to see her do it on race day before I tumble in. Deep Sea did the job impressively on debut on the Kensington track. It was the win of a good horse I thought. He sat back off the speed and landed good bets when rounding his rivals up comfortably. The question mark with him is that he goes from 1150m back to 1000m. If he can handle that and stay within striking distance in the run I think he is the one to beat. I don’t mind him drawn out over the short trip. If Blake Shinn can have him close enough to them I think he will overpower them late and am happy to be with him. Garibaldi is a local who tried his luck down in Sydney at his second start and now returns to his home state. He won well on debut over this course and distance when coming from off the speed and being really strong late. He then wasn’t beaten too far by Tenley in Sydney which reads as good form for a race of this nature. He comes into this race fresh with no trials, he draws a perfect gate to lob just in behind them and I think he should be right in the finish also.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Deep Sea here and save with $25 the win on Garibaldi!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 9

3:42pm

Suggested

Winter Bride (No.6)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Group Two Victory Stakes over the 1200m. Under the conditions of the race it looks a benefit for Redzel doesn’t it? He is clearly the highest rated horse in the race and under the weight for age conditions he looks thrown in. That is on his best form. It is just hard to know how well he is going. He was touched off by Ball Of Muscle first up before failing in The Galaxy and then running better in the T J Smith last start but still not near his best. I am hoping with the likes of I’m A Rippa, Fiery Heights and Jonker engaged that the speed is right on early up front and that our favourite horse Winter Bride can just lob behind them from gate one and have the last crack at them. While I am a big fan of her, I can’t say I ever thought I would be tipping her at weight for age against Redzel. I think she is clearly flying though and this is definitely her opportunity to roll him. She won well first up before the race shape last start just brought her undone. Those runaway leaders just got too far in front and she was unable to reel them in. She was clearly the best of the closers though in my opinion. She returns here to her home state, she will get all the favours in the run and if she is every to roll Redzel this looks the race. I just have to be with her. Cmon girl!

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Winter Bride here!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 10

4:22pm

Suggested

Freddie Fox Trot (No.3) & Chapter And Verse (No.11)

Dangers

Cadogan (No.1) & Capital Connection (No.7)

This is a cracking race to finish the day on. There are some good horses going around who will look to be taking the next step through this campaign and take on better races into the winter carnival. Freddie Fox Trot has the advantage of a recent run under his belt over Chapter And Verse and Cadogan and I am just wondering whether could prove crucial in the end result. He resumed in the Goldmarket five weeks ago where he came through on the slower inside section of the track at the Gold Coast. He just failed to run down Tyzone who then went to Sydney and ran really well in a strong race down there. Even though he is five weeks between runs I think he looks well placed here. He is unbeaten second up, I don’t mind his drawn out by this stage of the day and his record in this distance range is excellent. I think he will be very hard to beat. Chapter And Verse and Cadogan don’t have a lot between them based on their meetings last campaign. Typically Cadogan is a horse that takes a run to find his best whereas Chapter And Versehas a really good first up record. For that reason I am just siding with Chapter And Verse over Cadogan here but it is almost a toss of the coin. He draws in gate three does Chapter And Verse and he will do no work in the run early and if the breaks come his way he should be finishing hard. Both these horses ran well here last campaign and would expect them to be in the finish here but I just have that slight leaning to Chapter And Verse on the fresh side. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Cadogan though if you like him as his recent Gold Coast trial was quite good also and he beat Chapter And Verse twice last campaign. It is a good race to finish the day on.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Freddie Fox Trot and Chapter And Verse here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:40pm

Suggested

Mandela Effect (No.1) & Call It A Day (No.5)

Dangers

Renewal (No.3) & Ocean Deep (No.10)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield today for their big Vobis race day. I have to admit, I find these days sometimes to be a bit difficult from a punting perspective. The market typically zeros in on a couple of runners or in some races one runner given the compressed weights scales. Often a far inferior horse is carrying a similar weight to that of a well performed galloper. That generally makes finding the winner a bit easier, but from a punting perspective there can be a lack of value. Last year on this day quite a few short priced favourites got beat that were considered good things so it will be interesting to see how today plays out. There has been a bit of rain about Melbourne yesterday but these Melbourne tracks just drain so well and as a result we are still racing on a good track to kick things off with the rail out five metres. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 1400m. It was hard not to be impressed with the win of this Tasmanian galloper in Mandela Effect at Bendigo. He sat off the pace, really built into his work nicely and was strong through the line. That was his sixth win from his last seven starts. Put simply the horse is just flying. I think he will be even better here going to the 1400m. He draws a nice middle gate for Lachie King to get a run just off the speed and providing he goes on from his last run I think he will be winning here and the price looks quite acceptable though he is trimming up now from what we saw available yesterday. I think if he is to get beat it will be by Call It A Day. This horse just simply ran his rivals into the ground here two weeks ago. That is probably his chance of victory again here today. He will get out rolling in front and hopefully pinch a gap on Mandela Effect and that could prove decisive. He ran good time last start and last campaign he was a horse who really held his form once he found it so I think he is the clear danger. He is probably going to kick clear at the top of the straight and look the winner so I will save on him so we have something to cheer regardless but Mandela Effect is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Mandela Effect here and save with $25 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:15pm

Suggested

Twitchy Frank (No.1) & Spanner Head (No.3)

Dangers

Truly Discreet (No.2) & Think I’m Dreaming (No.5)

We get to the first of these Vobis races here and this one is for the mares over the 1400m. Certainly on weights Twitchy Frank looks well placed. This mare has found herself in the Tasmanian stable of Adam Trinder after formerly being with Darren Weir. I thought her run last start at Bendigo was good and reckon that might have been a tune up run for this. She was over four weeks between runs there and was a fairly notable drifter in the market from the time prices first went up to the time they jumped. She led the field up but was run down late by Miss Siska who obviously went to Sydney and ran well in the big Group One mares race. She is four weeks between runs again but meets both rivals that come out of that Bendigo race significantly better at the weights here. I expect her to roll forward in the small field from gate five and be hard to beat. I am keeping Spanner Head on side. This is a mare with a touch of class on her side resuming from a break. She typically races well fresh too. I think she is the bit of x-factor in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run well here fresh. I couldn’t find a jump out for her despite extensive searching (the sooner they get these into the form guides the better). The Archie Alexander team is going well though and I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to keep her on side and save behind Twitchy Frank.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Twitchy Frank here and save with $25 the win on Spanner Head!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

2:30pm

Suggested

Fine Dane (No.5), More Bricks (No.6) & Thine Is The Power (No.9)

Dangers

Halvorsen (No.1) & Columbus Circle (No.2)

This is another Vobis race. This one is for the three year olds over the 1100m. This is a good race though. There are no standouts here and it is quite an even bunch of horses and an open betting race. There aren’t too many stand outs in this race. There are quite a few different form lines coming together though. I am a bit here nor there with the form of Halvorsen and Columbus Circle through the 1000m race here two weeks ago and am leaning to a couple of other form lines. Fine Dane has been racing well this time in and his form around Anjana at his past couple of runs certainly reads quite well. The form around Anjana has been quite good and she went to Adelaide and ran well in a good race there behind Humma Mumma and Behemoth. Fine Dane has been pretty competitive with her and I just feel that form might be a fraction stronger. He draws gate one so he is going to land right on the speed and get every chance and the Moloney stable is in a rich vein of form. I think he will just need a touch of luck from that inside gate and he will be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Thine Is The Power has form around Fine Dane and for that reason I want to be with her also. She was five weeks between runs last Saturday when hitting the line strongly behind Graceful Storm and Thrillster and I like her on the quick back up here. Her form right through the campaign has been strong and two starts ago she was just touched off by Causeway Girl who we have seen run really well in Sydney in strong grade. I think that form is good, she draws gate three here to hopefully hold a position a little closer to the speed and if she can do that and the breaks come her way she can be in the finish. Happy to have her in my corner. I am also going to keep More Bricks on side who has his first run for the Preusker yard here. He resumed as a gelding and was given a solid hit out in a recent Ararat jump out. He is a horse that has shown good talent in his career so far and at double figure odds I am happy to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Thine Is The Power, $30 the win on Fine Dane and $15 the win on More Bricks!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:50pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.1)

Dangers

Mr Quickie (No.8)

This is another Vobis race here over the 2000m for the older gallopers. It is a small field and the market has clearly narrowed it down to two winning chances in Mahamedeis and Mr Quickie. I have to admit when I did the form for the race I had them a lot closer to each other in my market and was very surprised to see Mr Quickie at around the $1.60-70 mark and Mahamedeis $3+ when I looked at the actual odds. For that reason even though I didn’t have a lot between them I was more than happy to be having something on Mahamedeis. The horse is clearly in good form this time in. He did enough first up behind Widgee Turf at Flemington before being pretty unlucky in the Golden Mile where you can argue he probably should have won that race. Then he came here to Caulfield two weeks ago and god the job done in strong fashion. Plain Ciel ran third in that race and came out and won the Easter Cup. Once he struck winning form last campaign he really went on with the job and I would be surprised if he didn’t again this time around. With Runaway engaged in the race for Gai I think that should ensure a solid tempo and I am just a little bit more convinced about Mahamedeis being strong at the end of a solidly run 2000m. Mr Quickie has won over the 2000m but it was in lower grade and he just got there on that occasion. That is probably more a theory than anything but I just think Mahamedeis at this stage has the score on the board and the $3+ gives us a great betting opportunity so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Mahamedeis here and will lock in the $3.40 about him with SportsBet!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Iconoclasm (No.3) & Moonlight Ruby (No.7)

Dangers

Ashlor (No.1) & Miss Leonidas (No.10)

This is a good sprint race to finish the day on. The market has narrowed it down to three winning chances mainly in AshlorIconoclasm and Miss Leonidas. Ideally I really wanted to back Miss Leonidas and Iconoclasm. There just isn’t enough fat in the market though with Miss Leonidas around the $2.50 mark and the money continuing to come in for Iconoclasm into just over $3 from around a $4 price yesterday. I may be a little bit swayed by the price but I am going to be in the corner of Iconcoclasm. I think he is just a darned good horse and first up here for a white hot Danny O’Brien stable he should be ready to run a big race fresh. His Flemington jump out looked good enough. He wasn’t asked to do a lot but I thought he got through the line strongly and had a fair bit more to give. I am just banking on a couple of the speed horses overdoing it a bit up front and hoping Craig Williams can just come off their backs late and be really strong to run over the top of them. If that scenario comes to fruition hopefully we can be ending on a high. I am really scared of Miss Leonidas but after discussing her at length with Adam Blencowe in Sydney a few weeks back and then not taking the good odds about her last start when she won, it is hard to come back in at the $2.40 today given we missed the price last time out so hoping Iconoclasm can run her down in the final stages. The one at odds I am going to have a small bet on is Moonlight Ruby. This is a lightly raced mare who looks a bit out of her depth here but she did trial really well recently. I jotted her down post that trial as a horse to follow first up. I probably didn’t expect to see her in a race of this nature, I was thinking more a Thursday night at Pakenham. Because she is here though she is $20-30 and she draws well and should go well fresh so I am going to have something small on her just in case as I would kick myself if she saluted and I wasn’t on. A couple of these sprinters aren’t 100% consistent either so an upset isn’t completely out of the question.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Iconoclasm here and will save with $10 the win on Moonlight Ruby!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 4

1:35pm

Suggested

Pecans (No.1), Irithea (No.3) & Aqua D’ivina (No.5)

Dangers

Manicure (No.2) & Multaja (No.6)

Prepare yourselves for pain punters! I am having a couple of bets at Hawkesbury. I swear that I will never bet at this meeting ever again as I never seem to win there and it isn’t a track that I bet at often either. It is also an ordinary track to watch races on TV with the horrible camera angle. This is their big day though. It is a stand alone Saturday in New South Wales and it is their Cup Day so there are some good horses going around and I have found three races to bet into. Just a quick note, I did receive a tip for a horse in the fifth race which is the Highway for Bullseye Score. He is nice each way odds. On doing the form for the race myself I couldn’t really find an angle but if you want to have a bet, I am passing that one on, I will probably have something small each way for an interest. Let’s get into the races that I am actually confident in. We are racing on a good track and the first of those races is the Hawkesbury Crown which is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares. Almost immediately when you put two Godolphin horses as your dangers you get nervous. Their stable is flying but I am taking on Manicure and Multaja here. Irithea bypassed a lot of the main autumn races and she might reap the benefits of that post carnival in races like this. She resumed two weeks ago when a brave second behind White Moss. She had to carry the field up to the runaway leader in Quilista there and only just failed. Providing she hasn’t been flattened by that tough first up run here I think she is going to prove hard to hold out here. She fraws ideally in gate four to roll forward and get up on speed and she typically improves from her first up run to her second up run. If she does that here she is going to take some beating so happy to be with her. Pecans unlike me loves Hawkesbury. For that reason she looks worth a bet here. She is unbeaten in two runs here having won this race last year and then another feature race back in November defeating the males. She has had two trials leading into this and her most recent one showed she is right on track. She draws out but should roll forward for Corey Brown and she just ticks a lot of boxes. She likes it here, she goes well fresh and she loves this distance, I have to have something on her. I also want to keep Aqua D’ivina on side. This is a mare I have a lot of time for. I thought she closed off nicely in her recent trial with plenty still left in the tank. While this is short of her best trip, the small field means she probably won’t be too far off them in the run. She is a mare I don’t think we have seen the best of either yet so I want to keep her on side at the double figure odds just in case.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Irithea here and save with $20 the win on Pecans and $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Quackerjack (No.3) & Eawase (No.8)

Dangers

Trope (No.5) & Kylease (No.9)

This is another one of the features on the program. It is the Hawkesbury Guineas over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a pretty deep and challenging race. There are a few different form lines coming together. Kylease and Trope have come up the two most fancied in the market. Both are getting pretty deep into their first campaigns here and I just thought they might be a bit of a risk here. I am betting around them. Military Zone was touched off as an odds on favourite first up at Gosford when finishing sixth of ten. He was only beaten a length though and I am pretty confident that run was used as a tune up for this race. He flies second up this galloper. Last campaign he was ridden very quietly first up in a race at Randwick where he hit the line hard from the back late before going to Gosford and winning the Gosford Guineas second up. I am hoping for a repeat here this campaign by coming here and winning the Hawkesbury Guineas second up. He draws a nice middle gate for J-Mac, it is only a field of nine so he shouldn’t be too far off them and he is the one I can see really hitting the line hard late. Happy to be with him. I am keeping Quackerjack on side also. He resumed as a gelding and got the job done well on the Kensington track. I just think he might be the one in the race to really apply the pressure to Kylease and make this a pretty testing 1400m race. That will play into his hands. Him and Sheriff will both show speed and come across from the wide draw to either take up the running or apply the pressure to Kylease depending on if Corey Brown holds the front on her. Either way I think the pressure will be there and that might see Quackerjack come into his own and just keep grinding away. Happy to be with him here. I am also going to have something small on Eawase. Her two runs back have been good and I am convinced she is a filly with real talent, the stable are just still working her out. If that pressure is on up front then she might be the one swooping late so at good odds I will have something small on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here, $25 the win on Quackerjack and $10 the win on Eawase!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Kaonic (No.4), Tumultuous (No.5), Black On Gold (No.7) & Zourkhan (No.10)

Dangers

Aloisia (No.3) & Archedemus (No.11)

This is the Hawkesbury Cup, or the Waller Cup whichever way you want to look at it. Chris Waller saddles up seven of the twelve runners. I am playing this race pretty wide with a few of his roughies. All four horses I am backing are Waller horses but a couple are at bigger odds. My main starting point for the race was to take on Archedemus. I thought he got out in time at Randwick last start in the Championship final for the provincial gallopers but was pretty weak through the line over the 1400m. I don’t see him running out a strong mile here even if there is a consensus that he will appreciate not racing back inside horses here today and that was more the reason for him not finishing off last time out. Either way at the price I think he is a risk. Kaonic gets back on to a firmer surface here and that should hopefully see him run an improved race. He has a good record over the distance, he draws well for James McDonald and an improved run certainly wouldn’t surprise me here. His win on Melbourne Cup Day last year was so dominant I just think if he can get back to anything like that form here then he is going to be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Zourkhan is pretty easy to like. He resumed from a spell with an excellent first up run behind Star Of The Seas and he beat home Mahalangur in that race who came out and won last Saturday so he has a bit going for him. He gets right down in the weights here to just 53kgs from a good draw for Jay Ford. He typically goes very well second up and he has obviously come back in good order so I am keen to be with him. The other two Waller horses I am backing are resuming and at bigger odds. Tumultuous seems to save his best for the Gold Coast around Magic Millions time but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a race here. He is fresh over the mile with Josh Parr on board from a good middle gate and I thought his recent trial was very nice. He wasn’t beaten far and looked to have plenty more to give. He has come up around the $12-15 mark in this race and in a race that looks pretty even I thought he was worth a ticket. Black On Gold is the other one at really big odds I am having something on. The key for him here is that he gets on to a firm surface. He hasn’t been asked to do much at all in his trials leading into this but he has run well when fresh in the past. I just thought the odds that he come up made him worth a small bet here. He is around the $30-40 mark and at that price is surely worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Zourkhan, $20 the win on Kaonic and $10 the win on Tumultuous and Black On Gold!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:00pm

Suggested

Lota Creek Gold (No.6), Insensata (No.13) & Mymming (No.14)

Dangers

Impasse (No.5) & Shogun Sun (No.12)

Racing returns to Eagle Farm this Saturday in Brisbane and the carnival is starting to really heat up. The weather has finally taken a turn for the better up north too and we will be racing on a good track for what is a really good meeting. I think it is more of a watch and learn meeting then one to dive into from a punting perspective. A lot of horses are kicking off their campaigns a few are trying to carry Sydney form from their carnival through to up here and then you have the locals trying to make the step up to take on the challengers. For that reason I am a bit wary today but have still found four races to bet into. I am kicking off in the third race which is over the mile. The mile is probably the key factor here. Shogun Sun has come up a short priced favourite in the early markets and I just think he is a bit of a question mark at the mile. For that reason I thought there were a couple of opportunities around him. Mymminghas come back from a spell in really good form and I think she can run a big race here again. She is proven over the mile stays down in the weights and from a good draw I can see her being really strong late. I am happy to be with her. Insensata makes the journey north having been scratched from the Hawkesbury Cup. This would be the easiest race she has contested for some time. She has been taking on some pretty handy races in Sydney over the carnival recently and will appreciate the class drop here. She draws gate two and shouldn’t have to do too much work at all early so happy to have something on her around that $8 mark. The one I am saving on is Lota Creek Gold. I think he might be ready to show something here at his third run back from a spell. He draws out but looks likely to roll forward and control things out in front. If he can roll along and get his rivals chasing he might be hard to get past so happy to have something on him at the big odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on both Insensata and Mymming here and will save with $10 the win on Lots creek Gold!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 5

1:08pm

Suggested

Garibaldi (No.2) & Deep Sea (No.5)

Dangers

Jagged Edge (No.7) & Yitai Synergy (No.11)

This is the big two year old race on the program. It is the listed Dalrello Stakes over the 1000m. We see some Sydney blood arrive up north here with Yitai Synergy and Deep Sea coming up for the Snowden and Newnham camps respectively. Yitai Synergy has been a bit of a boom trial horse but when she got to the races just after Christmas in December I thought she was pretty ordinary. She has again trialled really nicely leading into this first up run and I obviously respect the stable and jockey from the good draw but I want to see her do it on race day before I tumble in. Deep Sea did the job impressively on debut on the Kensington track. It was the win of a good horse I thought. He sat back off the speed and landed good bets when rounding his rivals up comfortably. The question mark with him is that he goes from 1150m back to 1000m. If he can handle that and stay within striking distance in the run I think he is the one to beat. I don’t mind him drawn out over the short trip. If Blake Shinn can have him close enough to them I think he will overpower them late and am happy to be with him. Garibaldi is a local who tried his luck down in Sydney at his second start and now returns to his home state. He won well on debut over this course and distance when coming from off the speed and being really strong late. He then wasn’t beaten too far by Tenley in Sydney which reads as good form for a race of this nature. He comes into this race fresh with no trials, he draws a perfect gate to lob just in behind them and I think he should be right in the finish also.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Deep Sea here and save with $25 the win on Garibaldi!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 9

3:42pm

Suggested

Winter Bride (No.6)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Group Two Victory Stakes over the 1200m. Under the conditions of the race it looks a benefit for Redzel doesn’t it? He is clearly the highest rated horse in the race and under the weight for age conditions he looks thrown in. That is on his best form. It is just hard to know how well he is going. He was touched off by Ball Of Muscle first up before failing in The Galaxy and then running better in the T J Smith last start but still not near his best. I am hoping with the likes of I’m A Rippa, Fiery Heights and Jonker engaged that the speed is right on early up front and that our favourite horse Winter Bride can just lob behind them from gate one and have the last crack at them. While I am a big fan of her, I can’t say I ever thought I would be tipping her at weight for age against Redzel. I think she is clearly flying though and this is definitely her opportunity to roll him. She won well first up before the race shape last start just brought her undone. Those runaway leaders just got too far in front and she was unable to reel them in. She was clearly the best of the closers though in my opinion. She returns here to her home state, she will get all the favours in the run and if she is every to roll Redzel this looks the race. I just have to be with her. Cmon girl!

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Winter Bride here!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 10

4:22pm

Suggested

Freddie Fox Trot (No.3) & Chapter And Verse (No.11)

Dangers

Cadogan (No.1) & Capital Connection (No.7)

This is a cracking race to finish the day on. There are some good horses going around who will look to be taking the next step through this campaign and take on better races into the winter carnival. Freddie Fox Trot has the advantage of a recent run under his belt over Chapter And Verse and Cadogan and I am just wondering whether could prove crucial in the end result. He resumed in the Goldmarket five weeks ago where he came through on the slower inside section of the track at the Gold Coast. He just failed to run down Tyzone who then went to Sydney and ran really well in a strong race down there. Even though he is five weeks between runs I think he looks well placed here. He is unbeaten second up, I don’t mind his drawn out by this stage of the day and his record in this distance range is excellent. I think he will be very hard to beat. Chapter And Verse and Cadogan don’t have a lot between them based on their meetings last campaign. Typically Cadogan is a horse that takes a run to find his best whereas Chapter And Versehas a really good first up record. For that reason I am just siding with Chapter And Verse over Cadogan here but it is almost a toss of the coin. He draws in gate three does Chapter And Verse and he will do no work in the run early and if the breaks come his way he should be finishing hard. Both these horses ran well here last campaign and would expect them to be in the finish here but I just have that slight leaning to Chapter And Verse on the fresh side. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Cadogan though if you like him as his recent Gold Coast trial was quite good also and he beat Chapter And Verse twice last campaign. It is a good race to finish the day on.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Freddie Fox Trot and Chapter And Verse here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:40pm

Suggested

Mandela Effect (No.1) & Call It A Day (No.5)

Dangers

Renewal (No.3) & Ocean Deep (No.10)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield today for their big Vobis race day. I have to admit, I find these days sometimes to be a bit difficult from a punting perspective. The market typically zeros in on a couple of runners or in some races one runner given the compressed weights scales. Often a far inferior horse is carrying a similar weight to that of a well performed galloper. That generally makes finding the winner a bit easier, but from a punting perspective there can be a lack of value. Last year on this day quite a few short priced favourites got beat that were considered good things so it will be interesting to see how today plays out. There has been a bit of rain about Melbourne yesterday but these Melbourne tracks just drain so well and as a result we are still racing on a good track to kick things off with the rail out five metres. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 1400m. It was hard not to be impressed with the win of this Tasmanian galloper in Mandela Effect at Bendigo. He sat off the pace, really built into his work nicely and was strong through the line. That was his sixth win from his last seven starts. Put simply the horse is just flying. I think he will be even better here going to the 1400m. He draws a nice middle gate for Lachie King to get a run just off the speed and providing he goes on from his last run I think he will be winning here and the price looks quite acceptable though he is trimming up now from what we saw available yesterday. I think if he is to get beat it will be by Call It A Day. This horse just simply ran his rivals into the ground here two weeks ago. That is probably his chance of victory again here today. He will get out rolling in front and hopefully pinch a gap on Mandela Effect and that could prove decisive. He ran good time last start and last campaign he was a horse who really held his form once he found it so I think he is the clear danger. He is probably going to kick clear at the top of the straight and look the winner so I will save on him so we have something to cheer regardless but Mandela Effect is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Mandela Effect here and save with $25 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:15pm

Suggested

Twitchy Frank (No.1) & Spanner Head (No.3)

Dangers

Truly Discreet (No.2) & Think I’m Dreaming (No.5)

We get to the first of these Vobis races here and this one is for the mares over the 1400m. Certainly on weights Twitchy Frank looks well placed. This mare has found herself in the Tasmanian stable of Adam Trinder after formerly being with Darren Weir. I thought her run last start at Bendigo was good and reckon that might have been a tune up run for this. She was over four weeks between runs there and was a fairly notable drifter in the market from the time prices first went up to the time they jumped. She led the field up but was run down late by Miss Siska who obviously went to Sydney and ran well in the big Group One mares race. She is four weeks between runs again but meets both rivals that come out of that Bendigo race significantly better at the weights here. I expect her to roll forward in the small field from gate five and be hard to beat. I am keeping Spanner Head on side. This is a mare with a touch of class on her side resuming from a break. She typically races well fresh too. I think she is the bit of x-factor in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run well here fresh. I couldn’t find a jump out for her despite extensive searching (the sooner they get these into the form guides the better). The Archie Alexander team is going well though and I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to keep her on side and save behind Twitchy Frank.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Twitchy Frank here and save with $25 the win on Spanner Head!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

2:30pm

Suggested

Fine Dane (No.5), More Bricks (No.6) & Thine Is The Power (No.9)

Dangers

Halvorsen (No.1) & Columbus Circle (No.2)

This is another Vobis race. This one is for the three year olds over the 1100m. This is a good race though. There are no standouts here and it is quite an even bunch of horses and an open betting race. There aren’t too many stand outs in this race. There are quite a few different form lines coming together though. I am a bit here nor there with the form of Halvorsen and Columbus Circle through the 1000m race here two weeks ago and am leaning to a couple of other form lines. Fine Dane has been racing well this time in and his form around Anjana at his past couple of runs certainly reads quite well. The form around Anjana has been quite good and she went to Adelaide and ran well in a good race there behind Humma Mumma and Behemoth. Fine Dane has been pretty competitive with her and I just feel that form might be a fraction stronger. He draws gate one so he is going to land right on the speed and get every chance and the Moloney stable is in a rich vein of form. I think he will just need a touch of luck from that inside gate and he will be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Thine Is The Power has form around Fine Dane and for that reason I want to be with her also. She was five weeks between runs last Saturday when hitting the line strongly behind Graceful Storm and Thrillster and I like her on the quick back up here. Her form right through the campaign has been strong and two starts ago she was just touched off by Causeway Girl who we have seen run really well in Sydney in strong grade. I think that form is good, she draws gate three here to hopefully hold a position a little closer to the speed and if she can do that and the breaks come her way she can be in the finish. Happy to have her in my corner. I am also going to keep More Bricks on side who has his first run for the Preusker yard here. He resumed as a gelding and was given a solid hit out in a recent Ararat jump out. He is a horse that has shown good talent in his career so far and at double figure odds I am happy to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Thine Is The Power, $30 the win on Fine Dane and $15 the win on More Bricks!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:50pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.1)

Dangers

Mr Quickie (No.8)

This is another Vobis race here over the 2000m for the older gallopers. It is a small field and the market has clearly narrowed it down to two winning chances in Mahamedeis and Mr Quickie. I have to admit when I did the form for the race I had them a lot closer to each other in my market and was very surprised to see Mr Quickie at around the $1.60-70 mark and Mahamedeis $3+ when I looked at the actual odds. For that reason even though I didn’t have a lot between them I was more than happy to be having something on Mahamedeis. The horse is clearly in good form this time in. He did enough first up behind Widgee Turf at Flemington before being pretty unlucky in the Golden Mile where you can argue he probably should have won that race. Then he came here to Caulfield two weeks ago and god the job done in strong fashion. Plain Ciel ran third in that race and came out and won the Easter Cup. Once he struck winning form last campaign he really went on with the job and I would be surprised if he didn’t again this time around. With Runaway engaged in the race for Gai I think that should ensure a solid tempo and I am just a little bit more convinced about Mahamedeis being strong at the end of a solidly run 2000m. Mr Quickie has won over the 2000m but it was in lower grade and he just got there on that occasion. That is probably more a theory than anything but I just think Mahamedeis at this stage has the score on the board and the $3+ gives us a great betting opportunity so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Mahamedeis here and will lock in the $3.40 about him with SportsBet!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Iconoclasm (No.3) & Moonlight Ruby (No.7)

Dangers

Ashlor (No.1) & Miss Leonidas (No.10)

This is a good sprint race to finish the day on. The market has narrowed it down to three winning chances mainly in AshlorIconoclasm and Miss Leonidas. Ideally I really wanted to back Miss Leonidas and Iconoclasm. There just isn’t enough fat in the market though with Miss Leonidas around the $2.50 mark and the money continuing to come in for Iconoclasm into just over $3 from around a $4 price yesterday. I may be a little bit swayed by the price but I am going to be in the corner of Iconcoclasm. I think he is just a darned good horse and first up here for a white hot Danny O’Brien stable he should be ready to run a big race fresh. His Flemington jump out looked good enough. He wasn’t asked to do a lot but I thought he got through the line strongly and had a fair bit more to give. I am just banking on a couple of the speed horses overdoing it a bit up front and hoping Craig Williams can just come off their backs late and be really strong to run over the top of them. If that scenario comes to fruition hopefully we can be ending on a high. I am really scared of Miss Leonidas but after discussing her at length with Adam Blencowe in Sydney a few weeks back and then not taking the good odds about her last start when she won, it is hard to come back in at the $2.40 today given we missed the price last time out so hoping Iconoclasm can run her down in the final stages. The one at odds I am going to have a small bet on is Moonlight Ruby. This is a lightly raced mare who looks a bit out of her depth here but she did trial really well recently. I jotted her down post that trial as a horse to follow first up. I probably didn’t expect to see her in a race of this nature, I was thinking more a Thursday night at Pakenham. Because she is here though she is $20-30 and she draws well and should go well fresh so I am going to have something small on her just in case as I would kick myself if she saluted and I wasn’t on. A couple of these sprinters aren’t 100% consistent either so an upset isn’t completely out of the question.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Iconoclasm here and will save with $10 the win on Moonlight Ruby!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 4

1:35pm

Suggested

Pecans (No.1), Irithea (No.3) & Aqua D’ivina (No.5)

Dangers

Manicure (No.2) & Multaja (No.6)

Prepare yourselves for pain punters! I am having a couple of bets at Hawkesbury. I swear that I will never bet at this meeting ever again as I never seem to win there and it isn’t a track that I bet at often either. It is also an ordinary track to watch races on TV with the horrible camera angle. This is their big day though. It is a stand alone Saturday in New South Wales and it is their Cup Day so there are some good horses going around and I have found three races to bet into. Just a quick note, I did receive a tip for a horse in the fifth race which is the Highway for Bullseye Score. He is nice each way odds. On doing the form for the race myself I couldn’t really find an angle but if you want to have a bet, I am passing that one on, I will probably have something small each way for an interest. Let’s get into the races that I am actually confident in. We are racing on a good track and the first of those races is the Hawkesbury Crown which is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares. Almost immediately when you put two Godolphin horses as your dangers you get nervous. Their stable is flying but I am taking on Manicure and Multaja here. Irithea bypassed a lot of the main autumn races and she might reap the benefits of that post carnival in races like this. She resumed two weeks ago when a brave second behind White Moss. She had to carry the field up to the runaway leader in Quilista there and only just failed. Providing she hasn’t been flattened by that tough first up run here I think she is going to prove hard to hold out here. She fraws ideally in gate four to roll forward and get up on speed and she typically improves from her first up run to her second up run. If she does that here she is going to take some beating so happy to be with her. Pecans unlike me loves Hawkesbury. For that reason she looks worth a bet here. She is unbeaten in two runs here having won this race last year and then another feature race back in November defeating the males. She has had two trials leading into this and her most recent one showed she is right on track. She draws out but should roll forward for Corey Brown and she just ticks a lot of boxes. She likes it here, she goes well fresh and she loves this distance, I have to have something on her. I also want to keep Aqua D’ivina on side. This is a mare I have a lot of time for. I thought she closed off nicely in her recent trial with plenty still left in the tank. While this is short of her best trip, the small field means she probably won’t be too far off them in the run. She is a mare I don’t think we have seen the best of either yet so I want to keep her on side at the double figure odds just in case.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Irithea here and save with $20 the win on Pecans and $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Quackerjack (No.3) & Eawase (No.8)

Dangers

Trope (No.5) & Kylease (No.9)

This is another one of the features on the program. It is the Hawkesbury Guineas over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a pretty deep and challenging race. There are a few different form lines coming together. Kylease and Trope have come up the two most fancied in the market. Both are getting pretty deep into their first campaigns here and I just thought they might be a bit of a risk here. I am betting around them. Military Zone was touched off as an odds on favourite first up at Gosford when finishing sixth of ten. He was only beaten a length though and I am pretty confident that run was used as a tune up for this race. He flies second up this galloper. Last campaign he was ridden very quietly first up in a race at Randwick where he hit the line hard from the back late before going to Gosford and winning the Gosford Guineas second up. I am hoping for a repeat here this campaign by coming here and winning the Hawkesbury Guineas second up. He draws a nice middle gate for J-Mac, it is only a field of nine so he shouldn’t be too far off them and he is the one I can see really hitting the line hard late. Happy to be with him. I am keeping Quackerjack on side also. He resumed as a gelding and got the job done well on the Kensington track. I just think he might be the one in the race to really apply the pressure to Kylease and make this a pretty testing 1400m race. That will play into his hands. Him and Sheriff will both show speed and come across from the wide draw to either take up the running or apply the pressure to Kylease depending on if Corey Brown holds the front on her. Either way I think the pressure will be there and that might see Quackerjack come into his own and just keep grinding away. Happy to be with him here. I am also going to have something small on Eawase. Her two runs back have been good and I am convinced she is a filly with real talent, the stable are just still working her out. If that pressure is on up front then she might be the one swooping late so at good odds I will have something small on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here, $25 the win on Quackerjack and $10 the win on Eawase!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Kaonic (No.4), Tumultuous (No.5), Black On Gold (No.7) & Zourkhan (No.10)

Dangers

Aloisia (No.3) & Archedemus (No.11)

This is the Hawkesbury Cup, or the Waller Cup whichever way you want to look at it. Chris Waller saddles up seven of the twelve runners. I am playing this race pretty wide with a few of his roughies. All four horses I am backing are Waller horses but a couple are at bigger odds. My main starting point for the race was to take on Archedemus. I thought he got out in time at Randwick last start in the Championship final for the provincial gallopers but was pretty weak through the line over the 1400m. I don’t see him running out a strong mile here even if there is a consensus that he will appreciate not racing back inside horses here today and that was more the reason for him not finishing off last time out. Either way at the price I think he is a risk. Kaonic gets back on to a firmer surface here and that should hopefully see him run an improved race. He has a good record over the distance, he draws well for James McDonald and an improved run certainly wouldn’t surprise me here. His win on Melbourne Cup Day last year was so dominant I just think if he can get back to anything like that form here then he is going to be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Zourkhan is pretty easy to like. He resumed from a spell with an excellent first up run behind Star Of The Seas and he beat home Mahalangur in that race who came out and won last Saturday so he has a bit going for him. He gets right down in the weights here to just 53kgs from a good draw for Jay Ford. He typically goes very well second up and he has obviously come back in good order so I am keen to be with him. The other two Waller horses I am backing are resuming and at bigger odds. Tumultuous seems to save his best for the Gold Coast around Magic Millions time but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a race here. He is fresh over the mile with Josh Parr on board from a good middle gate and I thought his recent trial was very nice. He wasn’t beaten far and looked to have plenty more to give. He has come up around the $12-15 mark in this race and in a race that looks pretty even I thought he was worth a ticket. Black On Gold is the other one at really big odds I am having something on. The key for him here is that he gets on to a firm surface. He hasn’t been asked to do much at all in his trials leading into this but he has run well when fresh in the past. I just thought the odds that he come up made him worth a small bet here. He is around the $30-40 mark and at that price is surely worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Zourkhan, $20 the win on Kaonic and $10 the win on Tumultuous and Black On Gold!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:00pm

Suggested

Lota Creek Gold (No.6), Insensata (No.13) & Mymming (No.14)

Dangers

Impasse (No.5) & Shogun Sun (No.12)

Racing returns to Eagle Farm this Saturday in Brisbane and the carnival is starting to really heat up. The weather has finally taken a turn for the better up north too and we will be racing on a good track for what is a really good meeting. I think it is more of a watch and learn meeting then one to dive into from a punting perspective. A lot of horses are kicking off their campaigns a few are trying to carry Sydney form from their carnival through to up here and then you have the locals trying to make the step up to take on the challengers. For that reason I am a bit wary today but have still found four races to bet into. I am kicking off in the third race which is over the mile. The mile is probably the key factor here. Shogun Sun has come up a short priced favourite in the early markets and I just think he is a bit of a question mark at the mile. For that reason I thought there were a couple of opportunities around him. Mymminghas come back from a spell in really good form and I think she can run a big race here again. She is proven over the mile stays down in the weights and from a good draw I can see her being really strong late. I am happy to be with her. Insensata makes the journey north having been scratched from the Hawkesbury Cup. This would be the easiest race she has contested for some time. She has been taking on some pretty handy races in Sydney over the carnival recently and will appreciate the class drop here. She draws gate two and shouldn’t have to do too much work at all early so happy to have something on her around that $8 mark. The one I am saving on is Lota Creek Gold. I think he might be ready to show something here at his third run back from a spell. He draws out but looks likely to roll forward and control things out in front. If he can roll along and get his rivals chasing he might be hard to get past so happy to have something on him at the big odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on both Insensata and Mymming here and will save with $10 the win on Lots creek Gold!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 5

1:08pm

Suggested

Garibaldi (No.2) & Deep Sea (No.5)

Dangers

Jagged Edge (No.7) & Yitai Synergy (No.11)

This is the big two year old race on the program. It is the listed Dalrello Stakes over the 1000m. We see some Sydney blood arrive up north here with Yitai Synergy and Deep Sea coming up for the Snowden and Newnham camps respectively. Yitai Synergy has been a bit of a boom trial horse but when she got to the races just after Christmas in December I thought she was pretty ordinary. She has again trialled really nicely leading into this first up run and I obviously respect the stable and jockey from the good draw but I want to see her do it on race day before I tumble in. Deep Sea did the job impressively on debut on the Kensington track. It was the win of a good horse I thought. He sat back off the speed and landed good bets when rounding his rivals up comfortably. The question mark with him is that he goes from 1150m back to 1000m. If he can handle that and stay within striking distance in the run I think he is the one to beat. I don’t mind him drawn out over the short trip. If Blake Shinn can have him close enough to them I think he will overpower them late and am happy to be with him. Garibaldi is a local who tried his luck down in Sydney at his second start and now returns to his home state. He won well on debut over this course and distance when coming from off the speed and being really strong late. He then wasn’t beaten too far by Tenley in Sydney which reads as good form for a race of this nature. He comes into this race fresh with no trials, he draws a perfect gate to lob just in behind them and I think he should be right in the finish also.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Deep Sea here and save with $25 the win on Garibaldi!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 9

3:42pm

Suggested

Winter Bride (No.6)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Group Two Victory Stakes over the 1200m. Under the conditions of the race it looks a benefit for Redzel doesn’t it? He is clearly the highest rated horse in the race and under the weight for age conditions he looks thrown in. That is on his best form. It is just hard to know how well he is going. He was touched off by Ball Of Muscle first up before failing in The Galaxy and then running better in the T J Smith last start but still not near his best. I am hoping with the likes of I’m A Rippa, Fiery Heights and Jonker engaged that the speed is right on early up front and that our favourite horse Winter Bride can just lob behind them from gate one and have the last crack at them. While I am a big fan of her, I can’t say I ever thought I would be tipping her at weight for age against Redzel. I think she is clearly flying though and this is definitely her opportunity to roll him. She won well first up before the race shape last start just brought her undone. Those runaway leaders just got too far in front and she was unable to reel them in. She was clearly the best of the closers though in my opinion. She returns here to her home state, she will get all the favours in the run and if she is every to roll Redzel this looks the race. I just have to be with her. Cmon girl!

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Winter Bride here!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 10

4:22pm

Suggested

Freddie Fox Trot (No.3) & Chapter And Verse (No.11)

Dangers

Cadogan (No.1) & Capital Connection (No.7)

This is a cracking race to finish the day on. There are some good horses going around who will look to be taking the next step through this campaign and take on better races into the winter carnival. Freddie Fox Trot has the advantage of a recent run under his belt over Chapter And Verse and Cadogan and I am just wondering whether could prove crucial in the end result. He resumed in the Goldmarket five weeks ago where he came through on the slower inside section of the track at the Gold Coast. He just failed to run down Tyzone who then went to Sydney and ran really well in a strong race down there. Even though he is five weeks between runs I think he looks well placed here. He is unbeaten second up, I don’t mind his drawn out by this stage of the day and his record in this distance range is excellent. I think he will be very hard to beat. Chapter And Verse and Cadogan don’t have a lot between them based on their meetings last campaign. Typically Cadogan is a horse that takes a run to find his best whereas Chapter And Versehas a really good first up record. For that reason I am just siding with Chapter And Verse over Cadogan here but it is almost a toss of the coin. He draws in gate three does Chapter And Verse and he will do no work in the run early and if the breaks come his way he should be finishing hard. Both these horses ran well here last campaign and would expect them to be in the finish here but I just have that slight leaning to Chapter And Verse on the fresh side. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Cadogan though if you like him as his recent Gold Coast trial was quite good also and he beat Chapter And Verse twice last campaign. It is a good race to finish the day on.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Freddie Fox Trot and Chapter And Verse here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:40pm

Suggested

Mandela Effect (No.1) & Call It A Day (No.5)

Dangers

Renewal (No.3) & Ocean Deep (No.10)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield today for their big Vobis race day. I have to admit, I find these days sometimes to be a bit difficult from a punting perspective. The market typically zeros in on a couple of runners or in some races one runner given the compressed weights scales. Often a far inferior horse is carrying a similar weight to that of a well performed galloper. That generally makes finding the winner a bit easier, but from a punting perspective there can be a lack of value. Last year on this day quite a few short priced favourites got beat that were considered good things so it will be interesting to see how today plays out. There has been a bit of rain about Melbourne yesterday but these Melbourne tracks just drain so well and as a result we are still racing on a good track to kick things off with the rail out five metres. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 1400m. It was hard not to be impressed with the win of this Tasmanian galloper in Mandela Effect at Bendigo. He sat off the pace, really built into his work nicely and was strong through the line. That was his sixth win from his last seven starts. Put simply the horse is just flying. I think he will be even better here going to the 1400m. He draws a nice middle gate for Lachie King to get a run just off the speed and providing he goes on from his last run I think he will be winning here and the price looks quite acceptable though he is trimming up now from what we saw available yesterday. I think if he is to get beat it will be by Call It A Day. This horse just simply ran his rivals into the ground here two weeks ago. That is probably his chance of victory again here today. He will get out rolling in front and hopefully pinch a gap on Mandela Effect and that could prove decisive. He ran good time last start and last campaign he was a horse who really held his form once he found it so I think he is the clear danger. He is probably going to kick clear at the top of the straight and look the winner so I will save on him so we have something to cheer regardless but Mandela Effect is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Mandela Effect here and save with $25 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:15pm

Suggested

Twitchy Frank (No.1) & Spanner Head (No.3)

Dangers

Truly Discreet (No.2) & Think I’m Dreaming (No.5)

We get to the first of these Vobis races here and this one is for the mares over the 1400m. Certainly on weights Twitchy Frank looks well placed. This mare has found herself in the Tasmanian stable of Adam Trinder after formerly being with Darren Weir. I thought her run last start at Bendigo was good and reckon that might have been a tune up run for this. She was over four weeks between runs there and was a fairly notable drifter in the market from the time prices first went up to the time they jumped. She led the field up but was run down late by Miss Siska who obviously went to Sydney and ran well in the big Group One mares race. She is four weeks between runs again but meets both rivals that come out of that Bendigo race significantly better at the weights here. I expect her to roll forward in the small field from gate five and be hard to beat. I am keeping Spanner Head on side. This is a mare with a touch of class on her side resuming from a break. She typically races well fresh too. I think she is the bit of x-factor in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run well here fresh. I couldn’t find a jump out for her despite extensive searching (the sooner they get these into the form guides the better). The Archie Alexander team is going well though and I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to keep her on side and save behind Twitchy Frank.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Twitchy Frank here and save with $25 the win on Spanner Head!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

2:30pm

Suggested

Fine Dane (No.5), More Bricks (No.6) & Thine Is The Power (No.9)

Dangers

Halvorsen (No.1) & Columbus Circle (No.2)

This is another Vobis race. This one is for the three year olds over the 1100m. This is a good race though. There are no standouts here and it is quite an even bunch of horses and an open betting race. There aren’t too many stand outs in this race. There are quite a few different form lines coming together though. I am a bit here nor there with the form of Halvorsen and Columbus Circle through the 1000m race here two weeks ago and am leaning to a couple of other form lines. Fine Dane has been racing well this time in and his form around Anjana at his past couple of runs certainly reads quite well. The form around Anjana has been quite good and she went to Adelaide and ran well in a good race there behind Humma Mumma and Behemoth. Fine Dane has been pretty competitive with her and I just feel that form might be a fraction stronger. He draws gate one so he is going to land right on the speed and get every chance and the Moloney stable is in a rich vein of form. I think he will just need a touch of luck from that inside gate and he will be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Thine Is The Power has form around Fine Dane and for that reason I want to be with her also. She was five weeks between runs last Saturday when hitting the line strongly behind Graceful Storm and Thrillster and I like her on the quick back up here. Her form right through the campaign has been strong and two starts ago she was just touched off by Causeway Girl who we have seen run really well in Sydney in strong grade. I think that form is good, she draws gate three here to hopefully hold a position a little closer to the speed and if she can do that and the breaks come her way she can be in the finish. Happy to have her in my corner. I am also going to keep More Bricks on side who has his first run for the Preusker yard here. He resumed as a gelding and was given a solid hit out in a recent Ararat jump out. He is a horse that has shown good talent in his career so far and at double figure odds I am happy to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Thine Is The Power, $30 the win on Fine Dane and $15 the win on More Bricks!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:50pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.1)

Dangers

Mr Quickie (No.8)

This is another Vobis race here over the 2000m for the older gallopers. It is a small field and the market has clearly narrowed it down to two winning chances in Mahamedeis and Mr Quickie. I have to admit when I did the form for the race I had them a lot closer to each other in my market and was very surprised to see Mr Quickie at around the $1.60-70 mark and Mahamedeis $3+ when I looked at the actual odds. For that reason even though I didn’t have a lot between them I was more than happy to be having something on Mahamedeis. The horse is clearly in good form this time in. He did enough first up behind Widgee Turf at Flemington before being pretty unlucky in the Golden Mile where you can argue he probably should have won that race. Then he came here to Caulfield two weeks ago and god the job done in strong fashion. Plain Ciel ran third in that race and came out and won the Easter Cup. Once he struck winning form last campaign he really went on with the job and I would be surprised if he didn’t again this time around. With Runaway engaged in the race for Gai I think that should ensure a solid tempo and I am just a little bit more convinced about Mahamedeis being strong at the end of a solidly run 2000m. Mr Quickie has won over the 2000m but it was in lower grade and he just got there on that occasion. That is probably more a theory than anything but I just think Mahamedeis at this stage has the score on the board and the $3+ gives us a great betting opportunity so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Mahamedeis here and will lock in the $3.40 about him with SportsBet!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Iconoclasm (No.3) & Moonlight Ruby (No.7)

Dangers

Ashlor (No.1) & Miss Leonidas (No.10)

This is a good sprint race to finish the day on. The market has narrowed it down to three winning chances mainly in AshlorIconoclasm and Miss Leonidas. Ideally I really wanted to back Miss Leonidas and Iconoclasm. There just isn’t enough fat in the market though with Miss Leonidas around the $2.50 mark and the money continuing to come in for Iconoclasm into just over $3 from around a $4 price yesterday. I may be a little bit swayed by the price but I am going to be in the corner of Iconcoclasm. I think he is just a darned good horse and first up here for a white hot Danny O’Brien stable he should be ready to run a big race fresh. His Flemington jump out looked good enough. He wasn’t asked to do a lot but I thought he got through the line strongly and had a fair bit more to give. I am just banking on a couple of the speed horses overdoing it a bit up front and hoping Craig Williams can just come off their backs late and be really strong to run over the top of them. If that scenario comes to fruition hopefully we can be ending on a high. I am really scared of Miss Leonidas but after discussing her at length with Adam Blencowe in Sydney a few weeks back and then not taking the good odds about her last start when she won, it is hard to come back in at the $2.40 today given we missed the price last time out so hoping Iconoclasm can run her down in the final stages. The one at odds I am going to have a small bet on is Moonlight Ruby. This is a lightly raced mare who looks a bit out of her depth here but she did trial really well recently. I jotted her down post that trial as a horse to follow first up. I probably didn’t expect to see her in a race of this nature, I was thinking more a Thursday night at Pakenham. Because she is here though she is $20-30 and she draws well and should go well fresh so I am going to have something small on her just in case as I would kick myself if she saluted and I wasn’t on. A couple of these sprinters aren’t 100% consistent either so an upset isn’t completely out of the question.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Iconoclasm here and will save with $10 the win on Moonlight Ruby!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 4

1:35pm

Suggested

Pecans (No.1), Irithea (No.3) & Aqua D’ivina (No.5)

Dangers

Manicure (No.2) & Multaja (No.6)

Prepare yourselves for pain punters! I am having a couple of bets at Hawkesbury. I swear that I will never bet at this meeting ever again as I never seem to win there and it isn’t a track that I bet at often either. It is also an ordinary track to watch races on TV with the horrible camera angle. This is their big day though. It is a stand alone Saturday in New South Wales and it is their Cup Day so there are some good horses going around and I have found three races to bet into. Just a quick note, I did receive a tip for a horse in the fifth race which is the Highway for Bullseye Score. He is nice each way odds. On doing the form for the race myself I couldn’t really find an angle but if you want to have a bet, I am passing that one on, I will probably have something small each way for an interest. Let’s get into the races that I am actually confident in. We are racing on a good track and the first of those races is the Hawkesbury Crown which is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares. Almost immediately when you put two Godolphin horses as your dangers you get nervous. Their stable is flying but I am taking on Manicure and Multaja here. Irithea bypassed a lot of the main autumn races and she might reap the benefits of that post carnival in races like this. She resumed two weeks ago when a brave second behind White Moss. She had to carry the field up to the runaway leader in Quilista there and only just failed. Providing she hasn’t been flattened by that tough first up run here I think she is going to prove hard to hold out here. She fraws ideally in gate four to roll forward and get up on speed and she typically improves from her first up run to her second up run. If she does that here she is going to take some beating so happy to be with her. Pecans unlike me loves Hawkesbury. For that reason she looks worth a bet here. She is unbeaten in two runs here having won this race last year and then another feature race back in November defeating the males. She has had two trials leading into this and her most recent one showed she is right on track. She draws out but should roll forward for Corey Brown and she just ticks a lot of boxes. She likes it here, she goes well fresh and she loves this distance, I have to have something on her. I also want to keep Aqua D’ivina on side. This is a mare I have a lot of time for. I thought she closed off nicely in her recent trial with plenty still left in the tank. While this is short of her best trip, the small field means she probably won’t be too far off them in the run. She is a mare I don’t think we have seen the best of either yet so I want to keep her on side at the double figure odds just in case.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Irithea here and save with $20 the win on Pecans and $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Quackerjack (No.3) & Eawase (No.8)

Dangers

Trope (No.5) & Kylease (No.9)

This is another one of the features on the program. It is the Hawkesbury Guineas over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a pretty deep and challenging race. There are a few different form lines coming together. Kylease and Trope have come up the two most fancied in the market. Both are getting pretty deep into their first campaigns here and I just thought they might be a bit of a risk here. I am betting around them. Military Zone was touched off as an odds on favourite first up at Gosford when finishing sixth of ten. He was only beaten a length though and I am pretty confident that run was used as a tune up for this race. He flies second up this galloper. Last campaign he was ridden very quietly first up in a race at Randwick where he hit the line hard from the back late before going to Gosford and winning the Gosford Guineas second up. I am hoping for a repeat here this campaign by coming here and winning the Hawkesbury Guineas second up. He draws a nice middle gate for J-Mac, it is only a field of nine so he shouldn’t be too far off them and he is the one I can see really hitting the line hard late. Happy to be with him. I am keeping Quackerjack on side also. He resumed as a gelding and got the job done well on the Kensington track. I just think he might be the one in the race to really apply the pressure to Kylease and make this a pretty testing 1400m race. That will play into his hands. Him and Sheriff will both show speed and come across from the wide draw to either take up the running or apply the pressure to Kylease depending on if Corey Brown holds the front on her. Either way I think the pressure will be there and that might see Quackerjack come into his own and just keep grinding away. Happy to be with him here. I am also going to have something small on Eawase. Her two runs back have been good and I am convinced she is a filly with real talent, the stable are just still working her out. If that pressure is on up front then she might be the one swooping late so at good odds I will have something small on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here, $25 the win on Quackerjack and $10 the win on Eawase!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Kaonic (No.4), Tumultuous (No.5), Black On Gold (No.7) & Zourkhan (No.10)

Dangers

Aloisia (No.3) & Archedemus (No.11)

This is the Hawkesbury Cup, or the Waller Cup whichever way you want to look at it. Chris Waller saddles up seven of the twelve runners. I am playing this race pretty wide with a few of his roughies. All four horses I am backing are Waller horses but a couple are at bigger odds. My main starting point for the race was to take on Archedemus. I thought he got out in time at Randwick last start in the Championship final for the provincial gallopers but was pretty weak through the line over the 1400m. I don’t see him running out a strong mile here even if there is a consensus that he will appreciate not racing back inside horses here today and that was more the reason for him not finishing off last time out. Either way at the price I think he is a risk. Kaonic gets back on to a firmer surface here and that should hopefully see him run an improved race. He has a good record over the distance, he draws well for James McDonald and an improved run certainly wouldn’t surprise me here. His win on Melbourne Cup Day last year was so dominant I just think if he can get back to anything like that form here then he is going to be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Zourkhan is pretty easy to like. He resumed from a spell with an excellent first up run behind Star Of The Seas and he beat home Mahalangur in that race who came out and won last Saturday so he has a bit going for him. He gets right down in the weights here to just 53kgs from a good draw for Jay Ford. He typically goes very well second up and he has obviously come back in good order so I am keen to be with him. The other two Waller horses I am backing are resuming and at bigger odds. Tumultuous seems to save his best for the Gold Coast around Magic Millions time but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a race here. He is fresh over the mile with Josh Parr on board from a good middle gate and I thought his recent trial was very nice. He wasn’t beaten far and looked to have plenty more to give. He has come up around the $12-15 mark in this race and in a race that looks pretty even I thought he was worth a ticket. Black On Gold is the other one at really big odds I am having something on. The key for him here is that he gets on to a firm surface. He hasn’t been asked to do much at all in his trials leading into this but he has run well when fresh in the past. I just thought the odds that he come up made him worth a small bet here. He is around the $30-40 mark and at that price is surely worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Zourkhan, $20 the win on Kaonic and $10 the win on Tumultuous and Black On Gold!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:00pm

Suggested

Lota Creek Gold (No.6), Insensata (No.13) & Mymming (No.14)

Dangers

Impasse (No.5) & Shogun Sun (No.12)

Racing returns to Eagle Farm this Saturday in Brisbane and the carnival is starting to really heat up. The weather has finally taken a turn for the better up north too and we will be racing on a good track for what is a really good meeting. I think it is more of a watch and learn meeting then one to dive into from a punting perspective. A lot of horses are kicking off their campaigns a few are trying to carry Sydney form from their carnival through to up here and then you have the locals trying to make the step up to take on the challengers. For that reason I am a bit wary today but have still found four races to bet into. I am kicking off in the third race which is over the mile. The mile is probably the key factor here. Shogun Sun has come up a short priced favourite in the early markets and I just think he is a bit of a question mark at the mile. For that reason I thought there were a couple of opportunities around him. Mymminghas come back from a spell in really good form and I think she can run a big race here again. She is proven over the mile stays down in the weights and from a good draw I can see her being really strong late. I am happy to be with her. Insensata makes the journey north having been scratched from the Hawkesbury Cup. This would be the easiest race she has contested for some time. She has been taking on some pretty handy races in Sydney over the carnival recently and will appreciate the class drop here. She draws gate two and shouldn’t have to do too much work at all early so happy to have something on her around that $8 mark. The one I am saving on is Lota Creek Gold. I think he might be ready to show something here at his third run back from a spell. He draws out but looks likely to roll forward and control things out in front. If he can roll along and get his rivals chasing he might be hard to get past so happy to have something on him at the big odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on both Insensata and Mymming here and will save with $10 the win on Lots creek Gold!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 5

1:08pm

Suggested

Garibaldi (No.2) & Deep Sea (No.5)

Dangers

Jagged Edge (No.7) & Yitai Synergy (No.11)

This is the big two year old race on the program. It is the listed Dalrello Stakes over the 1000m. We see some Sydney blood arrive up north here with Yitai Synergy and Deep Sea coming up for the Snowden and Newnham camps respectively. Yitai Synergy has been a bit of a boom trial horse but when she got to the races just after Christmas in December I thought she was pretty ordinary. She has again trialled really nicely leading into this first up run and I obviously respect the stable and jockey from the good draw but I want to see her do it on race day before I tumble in. Deep Sea did the job impressively on debut on the Kensington track. It was the win of a good horse I thought. He sat back off the speed and landed good bets when rounding his rivals up comfortably. The question mark with him is that he goes from 1150m back to 1000m. If he can handle that and stay within striking distance in the run I think he is the one to beat. I don’t mind him drawn out over the short trip. If Blake Shinn can have him close enough to them I think he will overpower them late and am happy to be with him. Garibaldi is a local who tried his luck down in Sydney at his second start and now returns to his home state. He won well on debut over this course and distance when coming from off the speed and being really strong late. He then wasn’t beaten too far by Tenley in Sydney which reads as good form for a race of this nature. He comes into this race fresh with no trials, he draws a perfect gate to lob just in behind them and I think he should be right in the finish also.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Deep Sea here and save with $25 the win on Garibaldi!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 9

3:42pm

Suggested

Winter Bride (No.6)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Group Two Victory Stakes over the 1200m. Under the conditions of the race it looks a benefit for Redzel doesn’t it? He is clearly the highest rated horse in the race and under the weight for age conditions he looks thrown in. That is on his best form. It is just hard to know how well he is going. He was touched off by Ball Of Muscle first up before failing in The Galaxy and then running better in the T J Smith last start but still not near his best. I am hoping with the likes of I’m A Rippa, Fiery Heights and Jonker engaged that the speed is right on early up front and that our favourite horse Winter Bride can just lob behind them from gate one and have the last crack at them. While I am a big fan of her, I can’t say I ever thought I would be tipping her at weight for age against Redzel. I think she is clearly flying though and this is definitely her opportunity to roll him. She won well first up before the race shape last start just brought her undone. Those runaway leaders just got too far in front and she was unable to reel them in. She was clearly the best of the closers though in my opinion. She returns here to her home state, she will get all the favours in the run and if she is every to roll Redzel this looks the race. I just have to be with her. Cmon girl!

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Winter Bride here!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 10

4:22pm

Suggested

Freddie Fox Trot (No.3) & Chapter And Verse (No.11)

Dangers

Cadogan (No.1) & Capital Connection (No.7)

This is a cracking race to finish the day on. There are some good horses going around who will look to be taking the next step through this campaign and take on better races into the winter carnival. Freddie Fox Trot has the advantage of a recent run under his belt over Chapter And Verse and Cadogan and I am just wondering whether could prove crucial in the end result. He resumed in the Goldmarket five weeks ago where he came through on the slower inside section of the track at the Gold Coast. He just failed to run down Tyzone who then went to Sydney and ran really well in a strong race down there. Even though he is five weeks between runs I think he looks well placed here. He is unbeaten second up, I don’t mind his drawn out by this stage of the day and his record in this distance range is excellent. I think he will be very hard to beat. Chapter And Verse and Cadogan don’t have a lot between them based on their meetings last campaign. Typically Cadogan is a horse that takes a run to find his best whereas Chapter And Versehas a really good first up record. For that reason I am just siding with Chapter And Verse over Cadogan here but it is almost a toss of the coin. He draws in gate three does Chapter And Verse and he will do no work in the run early and if the breaks come his way he should be finishing hard. Both these horses ran well here last campaign and would expect them to be in the finish here but I just have that slight leaning to Chapter And Verse on the fresh side. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Cadogan though if you like him as his recent Gold Coast trial was quite good also and he beat Chapter And Verse twice last campaign. It is a good race to finish the day on.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Freddie Fox Trot and Chapter And Verse here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:40pm

Suggested

Mandela Effect (No.1) & Call It A Day (No.5)

Dangers

Renewal (No.3) & Ocean Deep (No.10)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield today for their big Vobis race day. I have to admit, I find these days sometimes to be a bit difficult from a punting perspective. The market typically zeros in on a couple of runners or in some races one runner given the compressed weights scales. Often a far inferior horse is carrying a similar weight to that of a well performed galloper. That generally makes finding the winner a bit easier, but from a punting perspective there can be a lack of value. Last year on this day quite a few short priced favourites got beat that were considered good things so it will be interesting to see how today plays out. There has been a bit of rain about Melbourne yesterday but these Melbourne tracks just drain so well and as a result we are still racing on a good track to kick things off with the rail out five metres. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 1400m. It was hard not to be impressed with the win of this Tasmanian galloper in Mandela Effect at Bendigo. He sat off the pace, really built into his work nicely and was strong through the line. That was his sixth win from his last seven starts. Put simply the horse is just flying. I think he will be even better here going to the 1400m. He draws a nice middle gate for Lachie King to get a run just off the speed and providing he goes on from his last run I think he will be winning here and the price looks quite acceptable though he is trimming up now from what we saw available yesterday. I think if he is to get beat it will be by Call It A Day. This horse just simply ran his rivals into the ground here two weeks ago. That is probably his chance of victory again here today. He will get out rolling in front and hopefully pinch a gap on Mandela Effect and that could prove decisive. He ran good time last start and last campaign he was a horse who really held his form once he found it so I think he is the clear danger. He is probably going to kick clear at the top of the straight and look the winner so I will save on him so we have something to cheer regardless but Mandela Effect is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Mandela Effect here and save with $25 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:15pm

Suggested

Twitchy Frank (No.1) & Spanner Head (No.3)

Dangers

Truly Discreet (No.2) & Think I’m Dreaming (No.5)

We get to the first of these Vobis races here and this one is for the mares over the 1400m. Certainly on weights Twitchy Frank looks well placed. This mare has found herself in the Tasmanian stable of Adam Trinder after formerly being with Darren Weir. I thought her run last start at Bendigo was good and reckon that might have been a tune up run for this. She was over four weeks between runs there and was a fairly notable drifter in the market from the time prices first went up to the time they jumped. She led the field up but was run down late by Miss Siska who obviously went to Sydney and ran well in the big Group One mares race. She is four weeks between runs again but meets both rivals that come out of that Bendigo race significantly better at the weights here. I expect her to roll forward in the small field from gate five and be hard to beat. I am keeping Spanner Head on side. This is a mare with a touch of class on her side resuming from a break. She typically races well fresh too. I think she is the bit of x-factor in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run well here fresh. I couldn’t find a jump out for her despite extensive searching (the sooner they get these into the form guides the better). The Archie Alexander team is going well though and I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to keep her on side and save behind Twitchy Frank.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Twitchy Frank here and save with $25 the win on Spanner Head!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

2:30pm

Suggested

Fine Dane (No.5), More Bricks (No.6) & Thine Is The Power (No.9)

Dangers

Halvorsen (No.1) & Columbus Circle (No.2)

This is another Vobis race. This one is for the three year olds over the 1100m. This is a good race though. There are no standouts here and it is quite an even bunch of horses and an open betting race. There aren’t too many stand outs in this race. There are quite a few different form lines coming together though. I am a bit here nor there with the form of Halvorsen and Columbus Circle through the 1000m race here two weeks ago and am leaning to a couple of other form lines. Fine Dane has been racing well this time in and his form around Anjana at his past couple of runs certainly reads quite well. The form around Anjana has been quite good and she went to Adelaide and ran well in a good race there behind Humma Mumma and Behemoth. Fine Dane has been pretty competitive with her and I just feel that form might be a fraction stronger. He draws gate one so he is going to land right on the speed and get every chance and the Moloney stable is in a rich vein of form. I think he will just need a touch of luck from that inside gate and he will be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Thine Is The Power has form around Fine Dane and for that reason I want to be with her also. She was five weeks between runs last Saturday when hitting the line strongly behind Graceful Storm and Thrillster and I like her on the quick back up here. Her form right through the campaign has been strong and two starts ago she was just touched off by Causeway Girl who we have seen run really well in Sydney in strong grade. I think that form is good, she draws gate three here to hopefully hold a position a little closer to the speed and if she can do that and the breaks come her way she can be in the finish. Happy to have her in my corner. I am also going to keep More Bricks on side who has his first run for the Preusker yard here. He resumed as a gelding and was given a solid hit out in a recent Ararat jump out. He is a horse that has shown good talent in his career so far and at double figure odds I am happy to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Thine Is The Power, $30 the win on Fine Dane and $15 the win on More Bricks!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:50pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.1)

Dangers

Mr Quickie (No.8)

This is another Vobis race here over the 2000m for the older gallopers. It is a small field and the market has clearly narrowed it down to two winning chances in Mahamedeis and Mr Quickie. I have to admit when I did the form for the race I had them a lot closer to each other in my market and was very surprised to see Mr Quickie at around the $1.60-70 mark and Mahamedeis $3+ when I looked at the actual odds. For that reason even though I didn’t have a lot between them I was more than happy to be having something on Mahamedeis. The horse is clearly in good form this time in. He did enough first up behind Widgee Turf at Flemington before being pretty unlucky in the Golden Mile where you can argue he probably should have won that race. Then he came here to Caulfield two weeks ago and god the job done in strong fashion. Plain Ciel ran third in that race and came out and won the Easter Cup. Once he struck winning form last campaign he really went on with the job and I would be surprised if he didn’t again this time around. With Runaway engaged in the race for Gai I think that should ensure a solid tempo and I am just a little bit more convinced about Mahamedeis being strong at the end of a solidly run 2000m. Mr Quickie has won over the 2000m but it was in lower grade and he just got there on that occasion. That is probably more a theory than anything but I just think Mahamedeis at this stage has the score on the board and the $3+ gives us a great betting opportunity so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Mahamedeis here and will lock in the $3.40 about him with SportsBet!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Iconoclasm (No.3) & Moonlight Ruby (No.7)

Dangers

Ashlor (No.1) & Miss Leonidas (No.10)

This is a good sprint race to finish the day on. The market has narrowed it down to three winning chances mainly in AshlorIconoclasm and Miss Leonidas. Ideally I really wanted to back Miss Leonidas and Iconoclasm. There just isn’t enough fat in the market though with Miss Leonidas around the $2.50 mark and the money continuing to come in for Iconoclasm into just over $3 from around a $4 price yesterday. I may be a little bit swayed by the price but I am going to be in the corner of Iconcoclasm. I think he is just a darned good horse and first up here for a white hot Danny O’Brien stable he should be ready to run a big race fresh. His Flemington jump out looked good enough. He wasn’t asked to do a lot but I thought he got through the line strongly and had a fair bit more to give. I am just banking on a couple of the speed horses overdoing it a bit up front and hoping Craig Williams can just come off their backs late and be really strong to run over the top of them. If that scenario comes to fruition hopefully we can be ending on a high. I am really scared of Miss Leonidas but after discussing her at length with Adam Blencowe in Sydney a few weeks back and then not taking the good odds about her last start when she won, it is hard to come back in at the $2.40 today given we missed the price last time out so hoping Iconoclasm can run her down in the final stages. The one at odds I am going to have a small bet on is Moonlight Ruby. This is a lightly raced mare who looks a bit out of her depth here but she did trial really well recently. I jotted her down post that trial as a horse to follow first up. I probably didn’t expect to see her in a race of this nature, I was thinking more a Thursday night at Pakenham. Because she is here though she is $20-30 and she draws well and should go well fresh so I am going to have something small on her just in case as I would kick myself if she saluted and I wasn’t on. A couple of these sprinters aren’t 100% consistent either so an upset isn’t completely out of the question.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Iconoclasm here and will save with $10 the win on Moonlight Ruby!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 4

1:35pm

Suggested

Pecans (No.1), Irithea (No.3) & Aqua D’ivina (No.5)

Dangers

Manicure (No.2) & Multaja (No.6)

Prepare yourselves for pain punters! I am having a couple of bets at Hawkesbury. I swear that I will never bet at this meeting ever again as I never seem to win there and it isn’t a track that I bet at often either. It is also an ordinary track to watch races on TV with the horrible camera angle. This is their big day though. It is a stand alone Saturday in New South Wales and it is their Cup Day so there are some good horses going around and I have found three races to bet into. Just a quick note, I did receive a tip for a horse in the fifth race which is the Highway for Bullseye Score. He is nice each way odds. On doing the form for the race myself I couldn’t really find an angle but if you want to have a bet, I am passing that one on, I will probably have something small each way for an interest. Let’s get into the races that I am actually confident in. We are racing on a good track and the first of those races is the Hawkesbury Crown which is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares. Almost immediately when you put two Godolphin horses as your dangers you get nervous. Their stable is flying but I am taking on Manicure and Multaja here. Irithea bypassed a lot of the main autumn races and she might reap the benefits of that post carnival in races like this. She resumed two weeks ago when a brave second behind White Moss. She had to carry the field up to the runaway leader in Quilista there and only just failed. Providing she hasn’t been flattened by that tough first up run here I think she is going to prove hard to hold out here. She fraws ideally in gate four to roll forward and get up on speed and she typically improves from her first up run to her second up run. If she does that here she is going to take some beating so happy to be with her. Pecans unlike me loves Hawkesbury. For that reason she looks worth a bet here. She is unbeaten in two runs here having won this race last year and then another feature race back in November defeating the males. She has had two trials leading into this and her most recent one showed she is right on track. She draws out but should roll forward for Corey Brown and she just ticks a lot of boxes. She likes it here, she goes well fresh and she loves this distance, I have to have something on her. I also want to keep Aqua D’ivina on side. This is a mare I have a lot of time for. I thought she closed off nicely in her recent trial with plenty still left in the tank. While this is short of her best trip, the small field means she probably won’t be too far off them in the run. She is a mare I don’t think we have seen the best of either yet so I want to keep her on side at the double figure odds just in case.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Irithea here and save with $20 the win on Pecans and $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Quackerjack (No.3) & Eawase (No.8)

Dangers

Trope (No.5) & Kylease (No.9)

This is another one of the features on the program. It is the Hawkesbury Guineas over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a pretty deep and challenging race. There are a few different form lines coming together. Kylease and Trope have come up the two most fancied in the market. Both are getting pretty deep into their first campaigns here and I just thought they might be a bit of a risk here. I am betting around them. Military Zone was touched off as an odds on favourite first up at Gosford when finishing sixth of ten. He was only beaten a length though and I am pretty confident that run was used as a tune up for this race. He flies second up this galloper. Last campaign he was ridden very quietly first up in a race at Randwick where he hit the line hard from the back late before going to Gosford and winning the Gosford Guineas second up. I am hoping for a repeat here this campaign by coming here and winning the Hawkesbury Guineas second up. He draws a nice middle gate for J-Mac, it is only a field of nine so he shouldn’t be too far off them and he is the one I can see really hitting the line hard late. Happy to be with him. I am keeping Quackerjack on side also. He resumed as a gelding and got the job done well on the Kensington track. I just think he might be the one in the race to really apply the pressure to Kylease and make this a pretty testing 1400m race. That will play into his hands. Him and Sheriff will both show speed and come across from the wide draw to either take up the running or apply the pressure to Kylease depending on if Corey Brown holds the front on her. Either way I think the pressure will be there and that might see Quackerjack come into his own and just keep grinding away. Happy to be with him here. I am also going to have something small on Eawase. Her two runs back have been good and I am convinced she is a filly with real talent, the stable are just still working her out. If that pressure is on up front then she might be the one swooping late so at good odds I will have something small on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here, $25 the win on Quackerjack and $10 the win on Eawase!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Kaonic (No.4), Tumultuous (No.5), Black On Gold (No.7) & Zourkhan (No.10)

Dangers

Aloisia (No.3) & Archedemus (No.11)

This is the Hawkesbury Cup, or the Waller Cup whichever way you want to look at it. Chris Waller saddles up seven of the twelve runners. I am playing this race pretty wide with a few of his roughies. All four horses I am backing are Waller horses but a couple are at bigger odds. My main starting point for the race was to take on Archedemus. I thought he got out in time at Randwick last start in the Championship final for the provincial gallopers but was pretty weak through the line over the 1400m. I don’t see him running out a strong mile here even if there is a consensus that he will appreciate not racing back inside horses here today and that was more the reason for him not finishing off last time out. Either way at the price I think he is a risk. Kaonic gets back on to a firmer surface here and that should hopefully see him run an improved race. He has a good record over the distance, he draws well for James McDonald and an improved run certainly wouldn’t surprise me here. His win on Melbourne Cup Day last year was so dominant I just think if he can get back to anything like that form here then he is going to be hard to hold out so happy to be with him. Zourkhan is pretty easy to like. He resumed from a spell with an excellent first up run behind Star Of The Seas and he beat home Mahalangur in that race who came out and won last Saturday so he has a bit going for him. He gets right down in the weights here to just 53kgs from a good draw for Jay Ford. He typically goes very well second up and he has obviously come back in good order so I am keen to be with him. The other two Waller horses I am backing are resuming and at bigger odds. Tumultuous seems to save his best for the Gold Coast around Magic Millions time but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a race here. He is fresh over the mile with Josh Parr on board from a good middle gate and I thought his recent trial was very nice. He wasn’t beaten far and looked to have plenty more to give. He has come up around the $12-15 mark in this race and in a race that looks pretty even I thought he was worth a ticket. Black On Gold is the other one at really big odds I am having something on. The key for him here is that he gets on to a firm surface. He hasn’t been asked to do much at all in his trials leading into this but he has run well when fresh in the past. I just thought the odds that he come up made him worth a small bet here. He is around the $30-40 mark and at that price is surely worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Zourkhan, $20 the win on Kaonic and $10 the win on Tumultuous and Black On Gold!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:00pm

Suggested

Lota Creek Gold (No.6), Insensata (No.13) & Mymming (No.14)

Dangers

Impasse (No.5) & Shogun Sun (No.12)

Racing returns to Eagle Farm this Saturday in Brisbane and the carnival is starting to really heat up. The weather has finally taken a turn for the better up north too and we will be racing on a good track for what is a really good meeting. I think it is more of a watch and learn meeting then one to dive into from a punting perspective. A lot of horses are kicking off their campaigns a few are trying to carry Sydney form from their carnival through to up here and then you have the locals trying to make the step up to take on the challengers. For that reason I am a bit wary today but have still found four races to bet into. I am kicking off in the third race which is over the mile. The mile is probably the key factor here. Shogun Sun has come up a short priced favourite in the early markets and I just think he is a bit of a question mark at the mile. For that reason I thought there were a couple of opportunities around him. Mymminghas come back from a spell in really good form and I think she can run a big race here again. She is proven over the mile stays down in the weights and from a good draw I can see her being really strong late. I am happy to be with her. Insensata makes the journey north having been scratched from the Hawkesbury Cup. This would be the easiest race she has contested for some time. She has been taking on some pretty handy races in Sydney over the carnival recently and will appreciate the class drop here. She draws gate two and shouldn’t have to do too much work at all early so happy to have something on her around that $8 mark. The one I am saving on is Lota Creek Gold. I think he might be ready to show something here at his third run back from a spell. He draws out but looks likely to roll forward and control things out in front. If he can roll along and get his rivals chasing he might be hard to get past so happy to have something on him at the big odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on both Insensata and Mymming here and will save with $10 the win on Lots creek Gold!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 5

1:08pm

Suggested

Garibaldi (No.2) & Deep Sea (No.5)

Dangers

Jagged Edge (No.7) & Yitai Synergy (No.11)

This is the big two year old race on the program. It is the listed Dalrello Stakes over the 1000m. We see some Sydney blood arrive up north here with Yitai Synergy and Deep Sea coming up for the Snowden and Newnham camps respectively. Yitai Synergy has been a bit of a boom trial horse but when she got to the races just after Christmas in December I thought she was pretty ordinary. She has again trialled really nicely leading into this first up run and I obviously respect the stable and jockey from the good draw but I want to see her do it on race day before I tumble in. Deep Sea did the job impressively on debut on the Kensington track. It was the win of a good horse I thought. He sat back off the speed and landed good bets when rounding his rivals up comfortably. The question mark with him is that he goes from 1150m back to 1000m. If he can handle that and stay within striking distance in the run I think he is the one to beat. I don’t mind him drawn out over the short trip. If Blake Shinn can have him close enough to them I think he will overpower them late and am happy to be with him. Garibaldi is a local who tried his luck down in Sydney at his second start and now returns to his home state. He won well on debut over this course and distance when coming from off the speed and being really strong late. He then wasn’t beaten too far by Tenley in Sydney which reads as good form for a race of this nature. He comes into this race fresh with no trials, he draws a perfect gate to lob just in behind them and I think he should be right in the finish also.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Deep Sea here and save with $25 the win on Garibaldi!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 9

3:42pm

Suggested

Winter Bride (No.6)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Group Two Victory Stakes over the 1200m. Under the conditions of the race it looks a benefit for Redzel doesn’t it? He is clearly the highest rated horse in the race and under the weight for age conditions he looks thrown in. That is on his best form. It is just hard to know how well he is going. He was touched off by Ball Of Muscle first up before failing in The Galaxy and then running better in the T J Smith last start but still not near his best. I am hoping with the likes of I’m A Rippa, Fiery Heights and Jonker engaged that the speed is right on early up front and that our favourite horse Winter Bride can just lob behind them from gate one and have the last crack at them. While I am a big fan of her, I can’t say I ever thought I would be tipping her at weight for age against Redzel. I think she is clearly flying though and this is definitely her opportunity to roll him. She won well first up before the race shape last start just brought her undone. Those runaway leaders just got too far in front and she was unable to reel them in. She was clearly the best of the closers though in my opinion. She returns here to her home state, she will get all the favours in the run and if she is every to roll Redzel this looks the race. I just have to be with her. Cmon girl!

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Winter Bride here!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 10

4:22pm

Suggested

Freddie Fox Trot (No.3) & Chapter And Verse (No.11)

Dangers

Cadogan (No.1) & Capital Connection (No.7)

This is a cracking race to finish the day on. There are some good horses going around who will look to be taking the next step through this campaign and take on better races into the winter carnival. Freddie Fox Trot has the advantage of a recent run under his belt over Chapter And Verse and Cadogan and I am just wondering whether could prove crucial in the end result. He resumed in the Goldmarket five weeks ago where he came through on the slower inside section of the track at the Gold Coast. He just failed to run down Tyzone who then went to Sydney and ran really well in a strong race down there. Even though he is five weeks between runs I think he looks well placed here. He is unbeaten second up, I don’t mind his drawn out by this stage of the day and his record in this distance range is excellent. I think he will be very hard to beat. Chapter And Verse and Cadogan don’t have a lot between them based on their meetings last campaign. Typically Cadogan is a horse that takes a run to find his best whereas Chapter And Versehas a really good first up record. For that reason I am just siding with Chapter And Verse over Cadogan here but it is almost a toss of the coin. He draws in gate three does Chapter And Verse and he will do no work in the run early and if the breaks come his way he should be finishing hard. Both these horses ran well here last campaign and would expect them to be in the finish here but I just have that slight leaning to Chapter And Verse on the fresh side. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Cadogan though if you like him as his recent Gold Coast trial was quite good also and he beat Chapter And Verse twice last campaign. It is a good race to finish the day on.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Freddie Fox Trot and Chapter And Verse here!

Race Outlay

$70

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