Melbourne Cup Preview 2017
I hope those of you that subscribed and followed our Melbourne Cup preview had a successful week on the punt. It’s all over for another year!
Results across the week were fairly consistent with Tuesday being the stand out day. Even though the Melbourne Cup Carnival 2017 has finished, the hard work doesn’t stop here and we will certainly look to ensure that the year ends on a positve.
The year is tracking well overall in terms of results. If you followed all of the previews since the start of the year you would be making around an 11% profit on turnover. I would love to try and get this up towards the 15% mark by year’s end but that is obviously easier said than done.
Thanks again to all subscribers for your ongoing support and messages during Melbourne Cup Carnival 2017, it really is very much appreciated and below is a snapshot of how the week panned out for us.
Previous posts this Spring Racing carnival:
- Caulfield Cup
- Caulfield Guineas & The Everest
- Turnbull Stakes
- Grand Final Weekend including Moir Stakes
- Golden Rose Stakes
- Sofitel Girls’ Day Out
AAMI Victoria Derby Day
Flemington proved to be a pretty tough day. From seven races bet into I was only able to find the two winners. Luckily it was at either end of the meet and they were two of the more confident bets on the program. Levendi kicked the day off on a winning note by winning the Carbine Club and then Rich Charm ended it with a super win down the straight. Securing $6.50 about Rich Charm turned out to be a good result also as he started much shorter on the day.
The Rosehill meeting in Sydney was where most of the good work was done. Unforgotten was a very confident bet in the second race and she got out to a really good price and confirmed herself as a very good filly by coming from off the speed to win well. The other big bet to come off there was securing $4.80 about Zumbelina on the Thursday and she was very heavily backed and won well. Other wins on the day for smaller amounts were Pomelo and Black On Gold giving us four winners from five races bet into.
The Doomben meeting was a small outlay meeting and again the Overs God was kind to us. Zahspeed ended up starting a well supported $3.60 favourite and at the time of the preview being posted, it was suggested to take the $7 being bet about him. He went straight to the front and won well there, giving us one winner from three races bet into there.
It was disappointing to get quite a few races really wrong at Flemington on AAMI Victoria Derby Day. I didn’t get close in the Lexus won by Cismontane and despite backing a number of horses in the Coolmore, most of them finished well down the track. Dixie Blossoms and Prompt Response narrowly went down in the Myer Classic as did Sully in the Derby while the biggest regret of the day was clearly not following up on Shillelagh after backing her at her previous start when most unlucky. She was able to run down Tom Melbourne in the Kennedy mile.
The only other disappointment on the day was up in Doomben where I made Valfierno a stand out bet and he was a big drifter in the market and ran poorly.
Final Result: – +$244
Emirates Melbourne Cup Day
Well there were plenty on Emirates Melbourne Cup Day. I was able to find five winners from the eight races bet into with the highlight obviously being Rekindling winning the Cup at $17 and also suggesting to take a $100 First 4 which would have given you 3.77% of the total dividend. Had you followed just the Emirates Melbourne Cup betting strategy for that race you would have made a profit of around $1860 on that race alone. That was backed up with the horse I suggested was the best bet of the day in Odeon saluting and then the day was capped off in grand fashion with Pedrena getting up at odds of $9+. Earlier in the day Prezado saluted at odds of $20+ for us and Our Crown Mistress also continued on her winning ways for a small winning result.
I can’t complain too much on a day like this. The day didn’t start well with two losing races in race two and three that I suggested to bet into. Race three was a painful race as I was on second, third and fourth but luckily the day was able to rebound from there and the three losing races I bet into all contained a horse backed that placed, so it showed I was around the mark all day!
Final Result: – +$2,222.56
Kennedy Oaks Day
The Great Game can certainly bring you back down to earth pretty quickly. After the highs of Emirates Melbourne Cup Day, Kennedy Oaks Day was the only losing day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival 2017. Luckily Hellova Street was one of the more confident bets on the program and he duly saluted. Ball Of Muscle was the other winning result on the day but overall it was a fairly disappointing day as I was only able to find the two winners from seven races bet into.
Gee, there were a few! It started early. I was keen to back Linguist on Tuesday at double figure odds, she was scratched from that race to run in the first race on Thursday and come up much shorter odds. I am not sure whether that had too much influence on me, but I decided to bet around her with a few roughies and paid the price. Linguist bolted in and none of mine ever looked a chance.
Aside from that it was the number of close seconds. Night’s Watch was very stiff in race four I thought when beaten by the stable mate. Black Sail who I was very keen on and tweeted out to back on Wednesday night at $11 loomed up to win race seven but couldn’t get past All Too Huying. Then the last race rubbed salt into the wounds. I backed I Am Excited at $6.50, she started $5 and beat the rest of the field by panels and was a clear winner on the outside rail but was just nutted by Jorda down on the flat side who was ridden by Hugh Bowman for Godolphin, both of whom had horrid carnivals up until then. It really was a day of what could have been.
Final Result: – -$175
Emirates Stakes Day
I staked pretty safe on Emirates Stakes Day at Flemington and maybe keeping the lead for the carnival was more in my mind then really going all out and attacking the day. I was able to find four winners from seven races bet into. The big win on the day came from Fastnet Tempest in race three where I unfortunately took odds of $2.45 only for him to end up starting around the $2.80 mark. Savapinski and Redzel also were excellent results while I also backed Vengeur Masque but in the preview suggested to only have a very small bet on him as he was double figure odds in the morning but started around the $7 mark.
Rosehill was a bit of a non event. It looked an ordinary meeting on paper and the results were fairly ordinary. Unforgotten was the only winner from three races bet into there.
Doomben was much kinder to us. Don’t Doubt Da Wife was a dominant winner while the big result of the day was Brooklyn Storm getting out to $12 Top Fluc and winning well. Given I expected him to be around the $6-7 mark, my suggested bet on the horse was a lot bigger than normal for a $12 horse. This offset the Vengeur Masque bet in a way and was probably the result that got me in front for the day.
I outlayed very heavily in race four at Flemington which was a real trap race and in hindsight I clearly should have stayed out or at the very least not risked so much on the race. The last race was a bit of a throw at the stumps and had it not been the last race of the carnival I would have stayed out. I had been with Tosen Stardom his last two starts and not backing up on him after AAMI Victoria Derby Day annoyed me.
At Randwick it was a couple of close finished that really cost us not winning more there. Roseito and Highway Sixtysix ran second and third in the Highway race while Zonk looked all over the winner only to be nabbed late by Machine Gun Jubs. Zonk ended up being a big drifter and would have been a big result had she held on.
I found two out of three at Doomben, but it should have been two out of two as I should have left race seven alone once Colinelle was scratched as I really wasn’t keen on the race.
Final Result: – +$176.50
Another enjoyable Melbourne Cup Carnival 2017. If you followed my betting strategy, here is where you would have landed.
Melbourne Cup Carnival 2017 Results
Suggested Outlay: – $3,395
Total Return: – $5,863
Melbourne Cup Carnival 2017 Profit: – +$2,468.06
Visit the Results page for more details.