Well punters we started the carnival pretty well with a solid first day. A couple of winners at big odds and the one stand out bet winning the first. We were a bit stiff with a couple later in the day but should be going into the second day with a lead. Clearly the pattern on Friday suggested that getting wider on the track won’t be a disadvantage and that will certainly come into play as we try and find a few winners on Day 2. Good luck!

Race 1 – 12:21pm

This is a maiden over the 1100m. It is a competitive one too. I think Gaius comes out of a couple of strong maidens this campaign and looks well placed here. He raced up on speed first up and then got back at Geelong last start. The key here is the blinkers go on. I think he will get up on speed and be hard to beat. What A Sham chased home a smart one in Ashford Street at Murtoa last start. She was still a little green there but obviously has some ability. This is certainly a winnable maiden, the wide draw given how this track is likely to play is no issue and as such happy to be with her as well.

Betting Strategy

I think Gaius and What A Sham is a good two bet play here both around that $4-5 mark.

Race 2 – 12:56pm

This is another very competitive maiden over the 1000m. Easy Single has jumped out well and comes into this gelded and from a big stable but gee, it is short for a horse that has had such a long break. Drawn gate one here too may not be a big plus. As a result I was happy to play this race pretty wide and bet around it.

Hunka Hunka Harry has racked up the second placings in his career so far but has taken on some handy horses. His two jump outs leading into this have been very sharp and I would expect him to be right in the finish.

Hope Is Good looks to have gone up big odds. She makes her debut here and has jumped out quite nicely. If she can run up to those she is a big show at a price.

Betting Strategy

Wide betting race for mine but pretty keen to take on the favourite with Hunka Hunka Harry and Hope Is Good.

Race 3 – 1:31pm

This is another maiden over the 1400m. Don’t Forget Dad comes through two strong maidens to kick his campaign off and looks extremely well placed here. He is certainly racing like he is looking for the 1400m and given the way the track played on Friday that wide draw could very well play to his advantage. I honestly thought he would come up closer to odds on here and as such very keen to be with him as one of the better bets of the day.Maarkle is the saving bet. Her run last start at Murtoa was good behind the smart Ashford Street and she also looks suited stepping up in trip. She looked the one over the odds around that $15 mark.

Betting Strategy

Very keen Don’t Forget Dad and will save on Maarkle.

Race 4 – 2:06pm

This race is over the 2000m for the stayers. This looks a relatively skinny race and the chances certainly look to lie with those at the top of the market. I think Simon Says on the quick back up from Casterton on Monday looks well placed. His form this campaign has been very good. He has chased home Mark The Horse and Hosier which reads as very good form prior to that run at Casterton on Monday. He was a bit unlucky there too having to go back to the inside where he was tightened for room. He still finished off OK and this looks a very winnable race. He is clearly the one to beat.

Breakhus has been a horse that I have been following this campaign. He finally gets up in trip here to the 2000m, he is locally owned with the Lanyon family involved and perhaps this is a nice setup race for him. He is a horse with talent and he finds a very winnable race here so happy to be with him.

Betting Strategy

Very keen on the two bet play here with Simon Says and Breakhus.

Race 5 – 2:41pm

This is a competitive race over the 1200m. There are a host of chances here. I thought Annemiek was OK last start at Warracknabeal against the pattern. She had to come wide and was always going to find it difficult the way the track and that race was playing and run. She looks well suited here and on her day is more than capable in a race of this nature so happy to be with her.

I am wary of Mallee Hammer. This mare gets the blinkers on for the first time and has been racing OK. She would certainly like this track to dry out a bit. If it does and we get to a Soft 5 or close to it then this is within her grasp and I just don’t want to let her go around without me. Toojay is the other one to be respected. He won his only start here and is pretty talented on his day. The middle to wide gate suits and he can run well.

Betting Strategy

Look, this is very open. Annemiek is the main bet, and then saving on Mallee Hammer and Toojay and will get keener on the former should the track dry out a bit.

Race 6 – 3:21pm

Without question probably the lowest race of the carnival this one. I am always trying to be positive, but gee, this is tough. Acoustic has certainly ran in better races than this but his jump outs weren’t overly inspiring. El Fabio has also run well in races that would see him competitive in something like this but his last start run was poor (may have had an issue).

I was left with the two Hobson gallopers. Sandhill and Highway To Success have been punching around in similar races in recent times and look to find something very winnable here. Both draw nice middle gates and have come up around the $4.8-6.5 mark which looks a decent price. In a pretty low race I think you can count on them to be competitive and give you something to cheer about.

Betting Strategy

Look, I would probably give this race a miss, but if travelling with confidence and feeling the need to bet then Sandhill and Highway To Success look a reasonable two bet play.

Race 7 – 4:01pm

This race is over the 1400m to finish the day on. Hopefully we can finish the carnival on a high as well. I think most punters will agree here as we try and blast out with The Siscos Kid. This looks an ideal race for him. He resumed from a spell with a really good run last start on the Ballarat Synthetic behind Avenue Of Pleasure. That followed a campaign previously where he really went through his grades well. He is only a lightly raced four year old and certainly looks to have a fair bit more upside than his rivals here. He draws out which should be a big advantage come this time of the day and also gets the blinkers go back on suggesting the stable is keen to come here for a kill. I just think he wins. I think black figures is reasonable and wouldn’t be surprised if come the time they jump he is in the red. We love a good thing to finish a carnival and I think The Siscos Kid might be that good thing.

Betting Strategy

Whether you’re blasting out or capitalising on the winnings already made I think you can back The Siscos Kid confidently in the last.

Mildura Cup Day 1 2021

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