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Select Race Meeting Event

Race 2

12:55pm

Suggested

Snogging (No.13), Paremuus Boy (No.14) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.15)

Dangers

Renewal (No.2), Fragment (No.3) & Kapaulenko (No.5)

Racing in Melbourne again comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for someone who was pleased about the return to racing there last Saturday it certainly didn’t reflect in my punting there. It was a rough old day summed up when Bandipur kicked back to touch off Spirit Of Aquada in a really sick beat. Hopefully we can bounce back there this Saturday at a track which is traditionally a profitable one. It won’t be easy though. I found this a terribly hard meeting. I found most races pretty hard to narrow down and as a result I have only found the four races to bet into. The rail is again out a fair way to the thirteen metre position but the weather has been pretty dry in Melbourne so we will be racing on a good track.

I am kicking the day off in the second race and even as I write this preview on Friday morning this race preview is a bit up in the air as the three horses I have come up with in the race are the first three emergencies so this preview could change dramatically come Saturday morning. Tan Tat Trusting unfortunately is the third of those emergencies but he is the horse I liked most in the race. He raced really well last campaign and it was a lengthy campaign. He probably didn’t get as many wins on the board as his form warranted but he still raced really well. I like him coming into this first up. He has had two really solid jump outs leading into this. His first one he was given a quiet time before being given a more rousing hit out in his most recent one over the 1400m. His record first up is good as is his record over the trip and I think if he gains a start he will run a big race here.

Another horse coming into this race first up from a spell is Snogging. Gee, this mare trialled well. Her form has tapered off a bit from earlier in her three year old season where she looked like she was going to go on and be a handy horse but she probably hasn’t gone on with the job to the level some might have thought she would have. That recent trial though was really impressive. It is hard judging horses too much off trials but she tracked up behind the speed and was never let off the bridle when coming off the leaders heels and winning easily. It all suggests she has come back well. I like her first up at this 1400m distance and if she can get into a good spot for Linda Meech she can be winning here. She is also the first emergency so she is most likely out of the three to get a run.

The second emergency and third horse I like in the race should he gain a start is Paremuus Boy. He was tried over a longer trip at Sandown last start and I am not sure that is his go. He got back out of his ground, he looked like he was moving into the race but probably peaked on his run late. He has been freshened since that and comes back to the 1400m here. He has also had a really stylish jump out at Camperdown to keep him up to the mark so at double figure odds happy to be with him if he gains a start.

Obviously a fair bit changes if those three don’t gain a start. If they don’t I would look at basing my bets around the dangers in the race pending odds. I think Kapaulenko would certainly be promoted at a price and then it will be deciding out of Renewal and the Tasmanian galloper in Fragment.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Snogging and Tan Tat Trusting here and $10 the win on Paremuus Boy! (at this stage)

Race Outlay

$60

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Wild Planet (No.4), Final Award (No.6) & Tahitian Dancer (No.9)

Dangers

Fasika (No.10), Green Aeon (No.11) & Millard Reaction (No.12)

Day Two of The Championships arrives at Royal Randwick on Saturday and after a cracking day up in Sydney last Saturday we are in for another outstanding day of racing. The Sydney weather started to turn last weekend while I was up there and it looks as if it has held firm through this week which means we will be racing on a good track come Saturday in my opinion. Obviously the eyes of the nation will be on Winx as she brings the curtain down on a career which is unparalleled. The level of domination seen over the past few years is certainly not anything I have seen before. Will she go down as my favourite horse? No, she won’t. I am amazed by her achievements but the utter domination has at the same time dulled the exhilaration of the competition which I love. That is nothing against her, it is just the fact that she is so good and so much better than any other horse.

She should round out her career in style and perhaps we will also see an heir apparent in Verry Elleegant stamp herself as a real superstar by winning the Oaks. Both are prohibitive odds of course and don’t represent anything from a betting point of view and that is why both races don’t appear in the preview. It should be good viewing though, in particular Verry Elleegant. If she can get the job done in the Oaks on Saturday I think there will be some real hype about her coming into next spring which will obviously be a much more open spring without Winx.

The track played well last Saturday, they got off the fence a bit as the day progressed and I would anticipate a similar pattern on Saturday but horses won on speed and from off speed so pretty fair all in all. Let’s get into the races we are actually betting into and I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a competitive race. There are some promising horses facing their toughest test here and it is an intriguing race. I certainly think the horse with the score on the board coming into this race is the Team Hawkes galloper Wild Planet. This horse races really well through the spring in Melbourne which culminated in a narrow defeat in the Carbine Club on Derby Day. He returned from a spell at big odds in the Derby Munro three weeks ago and ran an enormous race. He kept kicking up on the inside that day over the 1200m to keep the favourite Classique Legend working outside of him. He kicked back and beat that horse off only for Krone to dart up the inside and nab him late in the race. I thought it was an enormous first up return. The question is can he go on with the job after such a hard run first up. I think the three weeks between runs is certainly a big advantage. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and providing Tommy can roll forward from gate ten and find a good spot on speed he should prove hard to run down. Keen to be with him.

I am going to keep a couple of other runners on side. One of the few things I remember from that big weekend I had in Canberra a month back was that Final Award looked a really impressive animal winning the Canberra Guineas. He went back to last out of the gates that day but rounded his rivals up in the straight really impressively. Two starts prior to that he defeated the promising Amangiri who ran so well here last Saturday. He is clearly a horse of talent for mine. He has been freshened since that Canberra Guineas run but has had a very nice trial at Warwick Farm about a week and a half ago which has kept him up to the mark. I wish he hadn’t drawn gate on here. I would be much more confident had he drawn out but he will get back and if Williams can get him to the outside and clear air he will prove very hard to hold out so happy to be with him.

The other horse I want to be on in the race is Tahitian Dancer. This filly trialled super prior to her first up win and that win in itself at Mornington was super. She just held off the fast finishing Music Bay and there was a monster gap back to the third horse. Music Bay came out at Sandown and walked in on Wednesday which is a good sign. She gets down in the weights here from a nice middle draw for Brenton Avdulla and her form last campaign around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read well for a race of this nature so happy to be with her.

The chances don’t end there. The unbeaten trio of Fasika, Green Aeon and Millard Reaction all look really talented and I haven’t even mentioned Krone who rolled Wild Planet last start. Really good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wild Planet here! I will also have $15 the win on both Final Award and Tahitian Dancer!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

1:15pm

Suggested

Kiamichi (No.1), Flit (No.4) & Villami (No.7)

Dangers

Cheer Leader (No.5) & Athiri (No.6)

This race is for the two year old fillies over the 1200m. It is a two year old race so just back a Godolphin horse. Preview finished. Just kidding, kind of. That is how it is at the moment though isn’t it? The Godolphin two year olds are flying. We got one right last Saturday with Microphone in the Sires but not the first race when Bivouac beat Athiri home. To really make matters hard for us punters in this race James Cummings has decided to saddle up five runners. I have to admit I was pretty surprised Kiamichi didn’t come up favourite. I know she steps away from a wet track here for the first time in a few runs, but she is the Golden Slipper winner and this looks well within her scope. She backed up that Golden Slipper win with a really good run here last Saturday in the Sires. I have to admit when they turned for home I thought she looked the winner. She kicked clear and looked to have all her rivals off the bit and chasing. She just maybe failed to run the 1400m out strongly as she stopped quickly over the last 100m. I think she looks so well suited here. She drops back to 1200m, she is against her own sex and draws ideally in gate five for Hugh Bowman to either lead or land right outside the leader.

I know Cheer Leader was impressive at Moonee Valley last start and Lane riding her is maybe the lead punters are taking in backing her so heavily given he has been riding Kiamichi. However Cheer Leader is now nearly $2 shorter in the market than Kiamichi and for mine that is far too much of a discrepancy which makes Kiamichi a really good bet here. Happy to be with her.

I think Flit is the fresh blood on the scene that can make her presence felt. This is another Godolphin filly and she looks the up and comer that we perhaps haven’t got to the bottom of yet. She started a heavily backed odds on favourite on debut at Bendigo when running third before going to Flemington and sharing the spoils down the straight in a Group 3 race where I thought she went particularly well. She has come up to Sydney and trialled well earlier this week. She draws out for J-Mac but that will suit her as she looks to me to settle off the speed here and be the one coming over the top of them late. There looks to be good speed engaged so if they do overdo it up front I think she is the one that can be really strong late and around that $8 mark I think she is worth a ticket.

The throw at the stumps bet is Villami. This filly won well on debut and then started very firm in the market at her second start when well beaten behind Kiamichi. Kiamichi started around five times the price of Villami that day. Did the market just get it so wrong or was the heavy track to blame for Villami’s failure? Since then Villami has gone back to the trials and looked really stylish at Rosehill earlier this week. In this race the market has reversed she is about four to five times the price of Kiamichi. I reckon given that and the fact she gets back on to a drier surface here from gate one for The Gun she can run a big race and at the price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kiamichi here, $25 the win on Flit and $10 the win on Villami!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 2

1:41pm

Suggested

Debt Collector (No.7) & Heaven’s Deal (No.8)

Dangers

Split Lip (No.4) & Gytrash (No.9)

I am making a rare venture to Morphettville on Saturday. Given I am a bit light on in the preview in Brisbane and there are some quality horses running around in Adelaide I thought I would preview a few to bet into at this meeting. Ironically the race of most interest which is the last I am not betting in. That race features Behemoth and Anjana who both look really promising. Behemoth looked very exciting when winning at Moonee Valley back in December and hasn’t been seen since. His recent trial was excellent too. He runs into Anjana who is just flying at the moment and has been huge winning both runs this time in. Had Anjana drawn out I would have probably backed her but I am just worried from gate one she may find a bit of trouble and if Behemoth can take advantage of that with full momentum he will be hard to beat. They are both too short to back both but didn’t have a firm opinion either way to back one and not the other. I suggest watching the race though it will be good.

The weather is good in Adelaide and the track is also good for a good day of racing where I am kicking the betting off in the second race which is over the 1050m. I am looking forward to seeing the return of a horse here that I have a bit of time for in Debt Collector. I think he is a pretty handy horse. His form last campaign was really strong and he kicked that campaign off with a really good win over this track and trip. His last two runs of the campaign were the ones that really took my eye. He won so impressively two starts back over Going Gaga when coming from the clouds late and then was perhaps a touch unlucky at his most recent run to not reel in Like To Think So who was high rolling out in front while Debt Collector was held up for runs. He has had a quiet trial to tune him up for this which he went quite well in and even though he draws wide here, given his off speed racing pattern I don’t think that will be too big of a disadvantage given there are only eleven runners in the field. He won’t be too far off them and will have clear galloping room. He flies fresh, he likes this short course distance and I am happy to be with him.

I thought Heaven’s Deal with the two runs under her belt and a bit of fitness on side represented the danger. She will most likely jump on the bunny from gate four and if she can lead without doing too much work she could prove hard to run down. Most of the well fancied runners in this race are first up so if she can make the most of that fitness edge she can be very competitive and happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Debt Collector here and save with $25 the win on Heaven's Deal!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:55pm

Suggested

Snogging (No.13), Paremuus Boy (No.14) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.15)

Dangers

Renewal (No.2), Fragment (No.3) & Kapaulenko (No.5)

Racing in Melbourne again comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for someone who was pleased about the return to racing there last Saturday it certainly didn’t reflect in my punting there. It was a rough old day summed up when Bandipur kicked back to touch off Spirit Of Aquada in a really sick beat. Hopefully we can bounce back there this Saturday at a track which is traditionally a profitable one. It won’t be easy though. I found this a terribly hard meeting. I found most races pretty hard to narrow down and as a result I have only found the four races to bet into. The rail is again out a fair way to the thirteen metre position but the weather has been pretty dry in Melbourne so we will be racing on a good track.

I am kicking the day off in the second race and even as I write this preview on Friday morning this race preview is a bit up in the air as the three horses I have come up with in the race are the first three emergencies so this preview could change dramatically come Saturday morning. Tan Tat Trusting unfortunately is the third of those emergencies but he is the horse I liked most in the race. He raced really well last campaign and it was a lengthy campaign. He probably didn’t get as many wins on the board as his form warranted but he still raced really well. I like him coming into this first up. He has had two really solid jump outs leading into this. His first one he was given a quiet time before being given a more rousing hit out in his most recent one over the 1400m. His record first up is good as is his record over the trip and I think if he gains a start he will run a big race here.

Another horse coming into this race first up from a spell is Snogging. Gee, this mare trialled well. Her form has tapered off a bit from earlier in her three year old season where she looked like she was going to go on and be a handy horse but she probably hasn’t gone on with the job to the level some might have thought she would have. That recent trial though was really impressive. It is hard judging horses too much off trials but she tracked up behind the speed and was never let off the bridle when coming off the leaders heels and winning easily. It all suggests she has come back well. I like her first up at this 1400m distance and if she can get into a good spot for Linda Meech she can be winning here. She is also the first emergency so she is most likely out of the three to get a run.

The second emergency and third horse I like in the race should he gain a start is Paremuus Boy. He was tried over a longer trip at Sandown last start and I am not sure that is his go. He got back out of his ground, he looked like he was moving into the race but probably peaked on his run late. He has been freshened since that and comes back to the 1400m here. He has also had a really stylish jump out at Camperdown to keep him up to the mark so at double figure odds happy to be with him if he gains a start.

Obviously a fair bit changes if those three don’t gain a start. If they don’t I would look at basing my bets around the dangers in the race pending odds. I think Kapaulenko would certainly be promoted at a price and then it will be deciding out of Renewal and the Tasmanian galloper in Fragment.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Snogging and Tan Tat Trusting here and $10 the win on Paremuus Boy! (at this stage)

Race Outlay

$60

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Wild Planet (No.4), Final Award (No.6) & Tahitian Dancer (No.9)

Dangers

Fasika (No.10), Green Aeon (No.11) & Millard Reaction (No.12)

Day Two of The Championships arrives at Royal Randwick on Saturday and after a cracking day up in Sydney last Saturday we are in for another outstanding day of racing. The Sydney weather started to turn last weekend while I was up there and it looks as if it has held firm through this week which means we will be racing on a good track come Saturday in my opinion. Obviously the eyes of the nation will be on Winx as she brings the curtain down on a career which is unparalleled. The level of domination seen over the past few years is certainly not anything I have seen before. Will she go down as my favourite horse? No, she won’t. I am amazed by her achievements but the utter domination has at the same time dulled the exhilaration of the competition which I love. That is nothing against her, it is just the fact that she is so good and so much better than any other horse.

She should round out her career in style and perhaps we will also see an heir apparent in Verry Elleegant stamp herself as a real superstar by winning the Oaks. Both are prohibitive odds of course and don’t represent anything from a betting point of view and that is why both races don’t appear in the preview. It should be good viewing though, in particular Verry Elleegant. If she can get the job done in the Oaks on Saturday I think there will be some real hype about her coming into next spring which will obviously be a much more open spring without Winx.

The track played well last Saturday, they got off the fence a bit as the day progressed and I would anticipate a similar pattern on Saturday but horses won on speed and from off speed so pretty fair all in all. Let’s get into the races we are actually betting into and I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a competitive race. There are some promising horses facing their toughest test here and it is an intriguing race. I certainly think the horse with the score on the board coming into this race is the Team Hawkes galloper Wild Planet. This horse races really well through the spring in Melbourne which culminated in a narrow defeat in the Carbine Club on Derby Day. He returned from a spell at big odds in the Derby Munro three weeks ago and ran an enormous race. He kept kicking up on the inside that day over the 1200m to keep the favourite Classique Legend working outside of him. He kicked back and beat that horse off only for Krone to dart up the inside and nab him late in the race. I thought it was an enormous first up return. The question is can he go on with the job after such a hard run first up. I think the three weeks between runs is certainly a big advantage. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and providing Tommy can roll forward from gate ten and find a good spot on speed he should prove hard to run down. Keen to be with him.

I am going to keep a couple of other runners on side. One of the few things I remember from that big weekend I had in Canberra a month back was that Final Award looked a really impressive animal winning the Canberra Guineas. He went back to last out of the gates that day but rounded his rivals up in the straight really impressively. Two starts prior to that he defeated the promising Amangiri who ran so well here last Saturday. He is clearly a horse of talent for mine. He has been freshened since that Canberra Guineas run but has had a very nice trial at Warwick Farm about a week and a half ago which has kept him up to the mark. I wish he hadn’t drawn gate on here. I would be much more confident had he drawn out but he will get back and if Williams can get him to the outside and clear air he will prove very hard to hold out so happy to be with him.

The other horse I want to be on in the race is Tahitian Dancer. This filly trialled super prior to her first up win and that win in itself at Mornington was super. She just held off the fast finishing Music Bay and there was a monster gap back to the third horse. Music Bay came out at Sandown and walked in on Wednesday which is a good sign. She gets down in the weights here from a nice middle draw for Brenton Avdulla and her form last campaign around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read well for a race of this nature so happy to be with her.

The chances don’t end there. The unbeaten trio of Fasika, Green Aeon and Millard Reaction all look really talented and I haven’t even mentioned Krone who rolled Wild Planet last start. Really good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wild Planet here! I will also have $15 the win on both Final Award and Tahitian Dancer!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

1:15pm

Suggested

Kiamichi (No.1), Flit (No.4) & Villami (No.7)

Dangers

Cheer Leader (No.5) & Athiri (No.6)

This race is for the two year old fillies over the 1200m. It is a two year old race so just back a Godolphin horse. Preview finished. Just kidding, kind of. That is how it is at the moment though isn’t it? The Godolphin two year olds are flying. We got one right last Saturday with Microphone in the Sires but not the first race when Bivouac beat Athiri home. To really make matters hard for us punters in this race James Cummings has decided to saddle up five runners. I have to admit I was pretty surprised Kiamichi didn’t come up favourite. I know she steps away from a wet track here for the first time in a few runs, but she is the Golden Slipper winner and this looks well within her scope. She backed up that Golden Slipper win with a really good run here last Saturday in the Sires. I have to admit when they turned for home I thought she looked the winner. She kicked clear and looked to have all her rivals off the bit and chasing. She just maybe failed to run the 1400m out strongly as she stopped quickly over the last 100m. I think she looks so well suited here. She drops back to 1200m, she is against her own sex and draws ideally in gate five for Hugh Bowman to either lead or land right outside the leader.

I know Cheer Leader was impressive at Moonee Valley last start and Lane riding her is maybe the lead punters are taking in backing her so heavily given he has been riding Kiamichi. However Cheer Leader is now nearly $2 shorter in the market than Kiamichi and for mine that is far too much of a discrepancy which makes Kiamichi a really good bet here. Happy to be with her.

I think Flit is the fresh blood on the scene that can make her presence felt. This is another Godolphin filly and she looks the up and comer that we perhaps haven’t got to the bottom of yet. She started a heavily backed odds on favourite on debut at Bendigo when running third before going to Flemington and sharing the spoils down the straight in a Group 3 race where I thought she went particularly well. She has come up to Sydney and trialled well earlier this week. She draws out for J-Mac but that will suit her as she looks to me to settle off the speed here and be the one coming over the top of them late. There looks to be good speed engaged so if they do overdo it up front I think she is the one that can be really strong late and around that $8 mark I think she is worth a ticket.

The throw at the stumps bet is Villami. This filly won well on debut and then started very firm in the market at her second start when well beaten behind Kiamichi. Kiamichi started around five times the price of Villami that day. Did the market just get it so wrong or was the heavy track to blame for Villami’s failure? Since then Villami has gone back to the trials and looked really stylish at Rosehill earlier this week. In this race the market has reversed she is about four to five times the price of Kiamichi. I reckon given that and the fact she gets back on to a drier surface here from gate one for The Gun she can run a big race and at the price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kiamichi here, $25 the win on Flit and $10 the win on Villami!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 2

1:41pm

Suggested

Debt Collector (No.7) & Heaven’s Deal (No.8)

Dangers

Split Lip (No.4) & Gytrash (No.9)

I am making a rare venture to Morphettville on Saturday. Given I am a bit light on in the preview in Brisbane and there are some quality horses running around in Adelaide I thought I would preview a few to bet into at this meeting. Ironically the race of most interest which is the last I am not betting in. That race features Behemoth and Anjana who both look really promising. Behemoth looked very exciting when winning at Moonee Valley back in December and hasn’t been seen since. His recent trial was excellent too. He runs into Anjana who is just flying at the moment and has been huge winning both runs this time in. Had Anjana drawn out I would have probably backed her but I am just worried from gate one she may find a bit of trouble and if Behemoth can take advantage of that with full momentum he will be hard to beat. They are both too short to back both but didn’t have a firm opinion either way to back one and not the other. I suggest watching the race though it will be good.

The weather is good in Adelaide and the track is also good for a good day of racing where I am kicking the betting off in the second race which is over the 1050m. I am looking forward to seeing the return of a horse here that I have a bit of time for in Debt Collector. I think he is a pretty handy horse. His form last campaign was really strong and he kicked that campaign off with a really good win over this track and trip. His last two runs of the campaign were the ones that really took my eye. He won so impressively two starts back over Going Gaga when coming from the clouds late and then was perhaps a touch unlucky at his most recent run to not reel in Like To Think So who was high rolling out in front while Debt Collector was held up for runs. He has had a quiet trial to tune him up for this which he went quite well in and even though he draws wide here, given his off speed racing pattern I don’t think that will be too big of a disadvantage given there are only eleven runners in the field. He won’t be too far off them and will have clear galloping room. He flies fresh, he likes this short course distance and I am happy to be with him.

I thought Heaven’s Deal with the two runs under her belt and a bit of fitness on side represented the danger. She will most likely jump on the bunny from gate four and if she can lead without doing too much work she could prove hard to run down. Most of the well fancied runners in this race are first up so if she can make the most of that fitness edge she can be very competitive and happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Debt Collector here and save with $25 the win on Heaven's Deal!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:55pm

Suggested

Snogging (No.13), Paremuus Boy (No.14) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.15)

Dangers

Renewal (No.2), Fragment (No.3) & Kapaulenko (No.5)

Racing in Melbourne again comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for someone who was pleased about the return to racing there last Saturday it certainly didn’t reflect in my punting there. It was a rough old day summed up when Bandipur kicked back to touch off Spirit Of Aquada in a really sick beat. Hopefully we can bounce back there this Saturday at a track which is traditionally a profitable one. It won’t be easy though. I found this a terribly hard meeting. I found most races pretty hard to narrow down and as a result I have only found the four races to bet into. The rail is again out a fair way to the thirteen metre position but the weather has been pretty dry in Melbourne so we will be racing on a good track.

I am kicking the day off in the second race and even as I write this preview on Friday morning this race preview is a bit up in the air as the three horses I have come up with in the race are the first three emergencies so this preview could change dramatically come Saturday morning. Tan Tat Trusting unfortunately is the third of those emergencies but he is the horse I liked most in the race. He raced really well last campaign and it was a lengthy campaign. He probably didn’t get as many wins on the board as his form warranted but he still raced really well. I like him coming into this first up. He has had two really solid jump outs leading into this. His first one he was given a quiet time before being given a more rousing hit out in his most recent one over the 1400m. His record first up is good as is his record over the trip and I think if he gains a start he will run a big race here.

Another horse coming into this race first up from a spell is Snogging. Gee, this mare trialled well. Her form has tapered off a bit from earlier in her three year old season where she looked like she was going to go on and be a handy horse but she probably hasn’t gone on with the job to the level some might have thought she would have. That recent trial though was really impressive. It is hard judging horses too much off trials but she tracked up behind the speed and was never let off the bridle when coming off the leaders heels and winning easily. It all suggests she has come back well. I like her first up at this 1400m distance and if she can get into a good spot for Linda Meech she can be winning here. She is also the first emergency so she is most likely out of the three to get a run.

The second emergency and third horse I like in the race should he gain a start is Paremuus Boy. He was tried over a longer trip at Sandown last start and I am not sure that is his go. He got back out of his ground, he looked like he was moving into the race but probably peaked on his run late. He has been freshened since that and comes back to the 1400m here. He has also had a really stylish jump out at Camperdown to keep him up to the mark so at double figure odds happy to be with him if he gains a start.

Obviously a fair bit changes if those three don’t gain a start. If they don’t I would look at basing my bets around the dangers in the race pending odds. I think Kapaulenko would certainly be promoted at a price and then it will be deciding out of Renewal and the Tasmanian galloper in Fragment.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Snogging and Tan Tat Trusting here and $10 the win on Paremuus Boy! (at this stage)

Race Outlay

$60

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Wild Planet (No.4), Final Award (No.6) & Tahitian Dancer (No.9)

Dangers

Fasika (No.10), Green Aeon (No.11) & Millard Reaction (No.12)

Day Two of The Championships arrives at Royal Randwick on Saturday and after a cracking day up in Sydney last Saturday we are in for another outstanding day of racing. The Sydney weather started to turn last weekend while I was up there and it looks as if it has held firm through this week which means we will be racing on a good track come Saturday in my opinion. Obviously the eyes of the nation will be on Winx as she brings the curtain down on a career which is unparalleled. The level of domination seen over the past few years is certainly not anything I have seen before. Will she go down as my favourite horse? No, she won’t. I am amazed by her achievements but the utter domination has at the same time dulled the exhilaration of the competition which I love. That is nothing against her, it is just the fact that she is so good and so much better than any other horse.

She should round out her career in style and perhaps we will also see an heir apparent in Verry Elleegant stamp herself as a real superstar by winning the Oaks. Both are prohibitive odds of course and don’t represent anything from a betting point of view and that is why both races don’t appear in the preview. It should be good viewing though, in particular Verry Elleegant. If she can get the job done in the Oaks on Saturday I think there will be some real hype about her coming into next spring which will obviously be a much more open spring without Winx.

The track played well last Saturday, they got off the fence a bit as the day progressed and I would anticipate a similar pattern on Saturday but horses won on speed and from off speed so pretty fair all in all. Let’s get into the races we are actually betting into and I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a competitive race. There are some promising horses facing their toughest test here and it is an intriguing race. I certainly think the horse with the score on the board coming into this race is the Team Hawkes galloper Wild Planet. This horse races really well through the spring in Melbourne which culminated in a narrow defeat in the Carbine Club on Derby Day. He returned from a spell at big odds in the Derby Munro three weeks ago and ran an enormous race. He kept kicking up on the inside that day over the 1200m to keep the favourite Classique Legend working outside of him. He kicked back and beat that horse off only for Krone to dart up the inside and nab him late in the race. I thought it was an enormous first up return. The question is can he go on with the job after such a hard run first up. I think the three weeks between runs is certainly a big advantage. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and providing Tommy can roll forward from gate ten and find a good spot on speed he should prove hard to run down. Keen to be with him.

I am going to keep a couple of other runners on side. One of the few things I remember from that big weekend I had in Canberra a month back was that Final Award looked a really impressive animal winning the Canberra Guineas. He went back to last out of the gates that day but rounded his rivals up in the straight really impressively. Two starts prior to that he defeated the promising Amangiri who ran so well here last Saturday. He is clearly a horse of talent for mine. He has been freshened since that Canberra Guineas run but has had a very nice trial at Warwick Farm about a week and a half ago which has kept him up to the mark. I wish he hadn’t drawn gate on here. I would be much more confident had he drawn out but he will get back and if Williams can get him to the outside and clear air he will prove very hard to hold out so happy to be with him.

The other horse I want to be on in the race is Tahitian Dancer. This filly trialled super prior to her first up win and that win in itself at Mornington was super. She just held off the fast finishing Music Bay and there was a monster gap back to the third horse. Music Bay came out at Sandown and walked in on Wednesday which is a good sign. She gets down in the weights here from a nice middle draw for Brenton Avdulla and her form last campaign around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read well for a race of this nature so happy to be with her.

The chances don’t end there. The unbeaten trio of Fasika, Green Aeon and Millard Reaction all look really talented and I haven’t even mentioned Krone who rolled Wild Planet last start. Really good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wild Planet here! I will also have $15 the win on both Final Award and Tahitian Dancer!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

1:15pm

Suggested

Kiamichi (No.1), Flit (No.4) & Villami (No.7)

Dangers

Cheer Leader (No.5) & Athiri (No.6)

This race is for the two year old fillies over the 1200m. It is a two year old race so just back a Godolphin horse. Preview finished. Just kidding, kind of. That is how it is at the moment though isn’t it? The Godolphin two year olds are flying. We got one right last Saturday with Microphone in the Sires but not the first race when Bivouac beat Athiri home. To really make matters hard for us punters in this race James Cummings has decided to saddle up five runners. I have to admit I was pretty surprised Kiamichi didn’t come up favourite. I know she steps away from a wet track here for the first time in a few runs, but she is the Golden Slipper winner and this looks well within her scope. She backed up that Golden Slipper win with a really good run here last Saturday in the Sires. I have to admit when they turned for home I thought she looked the winner. She kicked clear and looked to have all her rivals off the bit and chasing. She just maybe failed to run the 1400m out strongly as she stopped quickly over the last 100m. I think she looks so well suited here. She drops back to 1200m, she is against her own sex and draws ideally in gate five for Hugh Bowman to either lead or land right outside the leader.

I know Cheer Leader was impressive at Moonee Valley last start and Lane riding her is maybe the lead punters are taking in backing her so heavily given he has been riding Kiamichi. However Cheer Leader is now nearly $2 shorter in the market than Kiamichi and for mine that is far too much of a discrepancy which makes Kiamichi a really good bet here. Happy to be with her.

I think Flit is the fresh blood on the scene that can make her presence felt. This is another Godolphin filly and she looks the up and comer that we perhaps haven’t got to the bottom of yet. She started a heavily backed odds on favourite on debut at Bendigo when running third before going to Flemington and sharing the spoils down the straight in a Group 3 race where I thought she went particularly well. She has come up to Sydney and trialled well earlier this week. She draws out for J-Mac but that will suit her as she looks to me to settle off the speed here and be the one coming over the top of them late. There looks to be good speed engaged so if they do overdo it up front I think she is the one that can be really strong late and around that $8 mark I think she is worth a ticket.

The throw at the stumps bet is Villami. This filly won well on debut and then started very firm in the market at her second start when well beaten behind Kiamichi. Kiamichi started around five times the price of Villami that day. Did the market just get it so wrong or was the heavy track to blame for Villami’s failure? Since then Villami has gone back to the trials and looked really stylish at Rosehill earlier this week. In this race the market has reversed she is about four to five times the price of Kiamichi. I reckon given that and the fact she gets back on to a drier surface here from gate one for The Gun she can run a big race and at the price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kiamichi here, $25 the win on Flit and $10 the win on Villami!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 2

1:41pm

Suggested

Debt Collector (No.7) & Heaven’s Deal (No.8)

Dangers

Split Lip (No.4) & Gytrash (No.9)

I am making a rare venture to Morphettville on Saturday. Given I am a bit light on in the preview in Brisbane and there are some quality horses running around in Adelaide I thought I would preview a few to bet into at this meeting. Ironically the race of most interest which is the last I am not betting in. That race features Behemoth and Anjana who both look really promising. Behemoth looked very exciting when winning at Moonee Valley back in December and hasn’t been seen since. His recent trial was excellent too. He runs into Anjana who is just flying at the moment and has been huge winning both runs this time in. Had Anjana drawn out I would have probably backed her but I am just worried from gate one she may find a bit of trouble and if Behemoth can take advantage of that with full momentum he will be hard to beat. They are both too short to back both but didn’t have a firm opinion either way to back one and not the other. I suggest watching the race though it will be good.

The weather is good in Adelaide and the track is also good for a good day of racing where I am kicking the betting off in the second race which is over the 1050m. I am looking forward to seeing the return of a horse here that I have a bit of time for in Debt Collector. I think he is a pretty handy horse. His form last campaign was really strong and he kicked that campaign off with a really good win over this track and trip. His last two runs of the campaign were the ones that really took my eye. He won so impressively two starts back over Going Gaga when coming from the clouds late and then was perhaps a touch unlucky at his most recent run to not reel in Like To Think So who was high rolling out in front while Debt Collector was held up for runs. He has had a quiet trial to tune him up for this which he went quite well in and even though he draws wide here, given his off speed racing pattern I don’t think that will be too big of a disadvantage given there are only eleven runners in the field. He won’t be too far off them and will have clear galloping room. He flies fresh, he likes this short course distance and I am happy to be with him.

I thought Heaven’s Deal with the two runs under her belt and a bit of fitness on side represented the danger. She will most likely jump on the bunny from gate four and if she can lead without doing too much work she could prove hard to run down. Most of the well fancied runners in this race are first up so if she can make the most of that fitness edge she can be very competitive and happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Debt Collector here and save with $25 the win on Heaven's Deal!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:55pm

Suggested

Snogging (No.13), Paremuus Boy (No.14) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.15)

Dangers

Renewal (No.2), Fragment (No.3) & Kapaulenko (No.5)

Racing in Melbourne again comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for someone who was pleased about the return to racing there last Saturday it certainly didn’t reflect in my punting there. It was a rough old day summed up when Bandipur kicked back to touch off Spirit Of Aquada in a really sick beat. Hopefully we can bounce back there this Saturday at a track which is traditionally a profitable one. It won’t be easy though. I found this a terribly hard meeting. I found most races pretty hard to narrow down and as a result I have only found the four races to bet into. The rail is again out a fair way to the thirteen metre position but the weather has been pretty dry in Melbourne so we will be racing on a good track.

I am kicking the day off in the second race and even as I write this preview on Friday morning this race preview is a bit up in the air as the three horses I have come up with in the race are the first three emergencies so this preview could change dramatically come Saturday morning. Tan Tat Trusting unfortunately is the third of those emergencies but he is the horse I liked most in the race. He raced really well last campaign and it was a lengthy campaign. He probably didn’t get as many wins on the board as his form warranted but he still raced really well. I like him coming into this first up. He has had two really solid jump outs leading into this. His first one he was given a quiet time before being given a more rousing hit out in his most recent one over the 1400m. His record first up is good as is his record over the trip and I think if he gains a start he will run a big race here.

Another horse coming into this race first up from a spell is Snogging. Gee, this mare trialled well. Her form has tapered off a bit from earlier in her three year old season where she looked like she was going to go on and be a handy horse but she probably hasn’t gone on with the job to the level some might have thought she would have. That recent trial though was really impressive. It is hard judging horses too much off trials but she tracked up behind the speed and was never let off the bridle when coming off the leaders heels and winning easily. It all suggests she has come back well. I like her first up at this 1400m distance and if she can get into a good spot for Linda Meech she can be winning here. She is also the first emergency so she is most likely out of the three to get a run.

The second emergency and third horse I like in the race should he gain a start is Paremuus Boy. He was tried over a longer trip at Sandown last start and I am not sure that is his go. He got back out of his ground, he looked like he was moving into the race but probably peaked on his run late. He has been freshened since that and comes back to the 1400m here. He has also had a really stylish jump out at Camperdown to keep him up to the mark so at double figure odds happy to be with him if he gains a start.

Obviously a fair bit changes if those three don’t gain a start. If they don’t I would look at basing my bets around the dangers in the race pending odds. I think Kapaulenko would certainly be promoted at a price and then it will be deciding out of Renewal and the Tasmanian galloper in Fragment.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Snogging and Tan Tat Trusting here and $10 the win on Paremuus Boy! (at this stage)

Race Outlay

$60

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Wild Planet (No.4), Final Award (No.6) & Tahitian Dancer (No.9)

Dangers

Fasika (No.10), Green Aeon (No.11) & Millard Reaction (No.12)

Day Two of The Championships arrives at Royal Randwick on Saturday and after a cracking day up in Sydney last Saturday we are in for another outstanding day of racing. The Sydney weather started to turn last weekend while I was up there and it looks as if it has held firm through this week which means we will be racing on a good track come Saturday in my opinion. Obviously the eyes of the nation will be on Winx as she brings the curtain down on a career which is unparalleled. The level of domination seen over the past few years is certainly not anything I have seen before. Will she go down as my favourite horse? No, she won’t. I am amazed by her achievements but the utter domination has at the same time dulled the exhilaration of the competition which I love. That is nothing against her, it is just the fact that she is so good and so much better than any other horse.

She should round out her career in style and perhaps we will also see an heir apparent in Verry Elleegant stamp herself as a real superstar by winning the Oaks. Both are prohibitive odds of course and don’t represent anything from a betting point of view and that is why both races don’t appear in the preview. It should be good viewing though, in particular Verry Elleegant. If she can get the job done in the Oaks on Saturday I think there will be some real hype about her coming into next spring which will obviously be a much more open spring without Winx.

The track played well last Saturday, they got off the fence a bit as the day progressed and I would anticipate a similar pattern on Saturday but horses won on speed and from off speed so pretty fair all in all. Let’s get into the races we are actually betting into and I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a competitive race. There are some promising horses facing their toughest test here and it is an intriguing race. I certainly think the horse with the score on the board coming into this race is the Team Hawkes galloper Wild Planet. This horse races really well through the spring in Melbourne which culminated in a narrow defeat in the Carbine Club on Derby Day. He returned from a spell at big odds in the Derby Munro three weeks ago and ran an enormous race. He kept kicking up on the inside that day over the 1200m to keep the favourite Classique Legend working outside of him. He kicked back and beat that horse off only for Krone to dart up the inside and nab him late in the race. I thought it was an enormous first up return. The question is can he go on with the job after such a hard run first up. I think the three weeks between runs is certainly a big advantage. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and providing Tommy can roll forward from gate ten and find a good spot on speed he should prove hard to run down. Keen to be with him.

I am going to keep a couple of other runners on side. One of the few things I remember from that big weekend I had in Canberra a month back was that Final Award looked a really impressive animal winning the Canberra Guineas. He went back to last out of the gates that day but rounded his rivals up in the straight really impressively. Two starts prior to that he defeated the promising Amangiri who ran so well here last Saturday. He is clearly a horse of talent for mine. He has been freshened since that Canberra Guineas run but has had a very nice trial at Warwick Farm about a week and a half ago which has kept him up to the mark. I wish he hadn’t drawn gate on here. I would be much more confident had he drawn out but he will get back and if Williams can get him to the outside and clear air he will prove very hard to hold out so happy to be with him.

The other horse I want to be on in the race is Tahitian Dancer. This filly trialled super prior to her first up win and that win in itself at Mornington was super. She just held off the fast finishing Music Bay and there was a monster gap back to the third horse. Music Bay came out at Sandown and walked in on Wednesday which is a good sign. She gets down in the weights here from a nice middle draw for Brenton Avdulla and her form last campaign around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read well for a race of this nature so happy to be with her.

The chances don’t end there. The unbeaten trio of Fasika, Green Aeon and Millard Reaction all look really talented and I haven’t even mentioned Krone who rolled Wild Planet last start. Really good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wild Planet here! I will also have $15 the win on both Final Award and Tahitian Dancer!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

1:15pm

Suggested

Kiamichi (No.1), Flit (No.4) & Villami (No.7)

Dangers

Cheer Leader (No.5) & Athiri (No.6)

This race is for the two year old fillies over the 1200m. It is a two year old race so just back a Godolphin horse. Preview finished. Just kidding, kind of. That is how it is at the moment though isn’t it? The Godolphin two year olds are flying. We got one right last Saturday with Microphone in the Sires but not the first race when Bivouac beat Athiri home. To really make matters hard for us punters in this race James Cummings has decided to saddle up five runners. I have to admit I was pretty surprised Kiamichi didn’t come up favourite. I know she steps away from a wet track here for the first time in a few runs, but she is the Golden Slipper winner and this looks well within her scope. She backed up that Golden Slipper win with a really good run here last Saturday in the Sires. I have to admit when they turned for home I thought she looked the winner. She kicked clear and looked to have all her rivals off the bit and chasing. She just maybe failed to run the 1400m out strongly as she stopped quickly over the last 100m. I think she looks so well suited here. She drops back to 1200m, she is against her own sex and draws ideally in gate five for Hugh Bowman to either lead or land right outside the leader.

I know Cheer Leader was impressive at Moonee Valley last start and Lane riding her is maybe the lead punters are taking in backing her so heavily given he has been riding Kiamichi. However Cheer Leader is now nearly $2 shorter in the market than Kiamichi and for mine that is far too much of a discrepancy which makes Kiamichi a really good bet here. Happy to be with her.

I think Flit is the fresh blood on the scene that can make her presence felt. This is another Godolphin filly and she looks the up and comer that we perhaps haven’t got to the bottom of yet. She started a heavily backed odds on favourite on debut at Bendigo when running third before going to Flemington and sharing the spoils down the straight in a Group 3 race where I thought she went particularly well. She has come up to Sydney and trialled well earlier this week. She draws out for J-Mac but that will suit her as she looks to me to settle off the speed here and be the one coming over the top of them late. There looks to be good speed engaged so if they do overdo it up front I think she is the one that can be really strong late and around that $8 mark I think she is worth a ticket.

The throw at the stumps bet is Villami. This filly won well on debut and then started very firm in the market at her second start when well beaten behind Kiamichi. Kiamichi started around five times the price of Villami that day. Did the market just get it so wrong or was the heavy track to blame for Villami’s failure? Since then Villami has gone back to the trials and looked really stylish at Rosehill earlier this week. In this race the market has reversed she is about four to five times the price of Kiamichi. I reckon given that and the fact she gets back on to a drier surface here from gate one for The Gun she can run a big race and at the price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kiamichi here, $25 the win on Flit and $10 the win on Villami!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 2

1:41pm

Suggested

Debt Collector (No.7) & Heaven’s Deal (No.8)

Dangers

Split Lip (No.4) & Gytrash (No.9)

I am making a rare venture to Morphettville on Saturday. Given I am a bit light on in the preview in Brisbane and there are some quality horses running around in Adelaide I thought I would preview a few to bet into at this meeting. Ironically the race of most interest which is the last I am not betting in. That race features Behemoth and Anjana who both look really promising. Behemoth looked very exciting when winning at Moonee Valley back in December and hasn’t been seen since. His recent trial was excellent too. He runs into Anjana who is just flying at the moment and has been huge winning both runs this time in. Had Anjana drawn out I would have probably backed her but I am just worried from gate one she may find a bit of trouble and if Behemoth can take advantage of that with full momentum he will be hard to beat. They are both too short to back both but didn’t have a firm opinion either way to back one and not the other. I suggest watching the race though it will be good.

The weather is good in Adelaide and the track is also good for a good day of racing where I am kicking the betting off in the second race which is over the 1050m. I am looking forward to seeing the return of a horse here that I have a bit of time for in Debt Collector. I think he is a pretty handy horse. His form last campaign was really strong and he kicked that campaign off with a really good win over this track and trip. His last two runs of the campaign were the ones that really took my eye. He won so impressively two starts back over Going Gaga when coming from the clouds late and then was perhaps a touch unlucky at his most recent run to not reel in Like To Think So who was high rolling out in front while Debt Collector was held up for runs. He has had a quiet trial to tune him up for this which he went quite well in and even though he draws wide here, given his off speed racing pattern I don’t think that will be too big of a disadvantage given there are only eleven runners in the field. He won’t be too far off them and will have clear galloping room. He flies fresh, he likes this short course distance and I am happy to be with him.

I thought Heaven’s Deal with the two runs under her belt and a bit of fitness on side represented the danger. She will most likely jump on the bunny from gate four and if she can lead without doing too much work she could prove hard to run down. Most of the well fancied runners in this race are first up so if she can make the most of that fitness edge she can be very competitive and happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Debt Collector here and save with $25 the win on Heaven's Deal!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:55pm

Suggested

Snogging (No.13), Paremuus Boy (No.14) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.15)

Dangers

Renewal (No.2), Fragment (No.3) & Kapaulenko (No.5)

Racing in Melbourne again comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for someone who was pleased about the return to racing there last Saturday it certainly didn’t reflect in my punting there. It was a rough old day summed up when Bandipur kicked back to touch off Spirit Of Aquada in a really sick beat. Hopefully we can bounce back there this Saturday at a track which is traditionally a profitable one. It won’t be easy though. I found this a terribly hard meeting. I found most races pretty hard to narrow down and as a result I have only found the four races to bet into. The rail is again out a fair way to the thirteen metre position but the weather has been pretty dry in Melbourne so we will be racing on a good track.

I am kicking the day off in the second race and even as I write this preview on Friday morning this race preview is a bit up in the air as the three horses I have come up with in the race are the first three emergencies so this preview could change dramatically come Saturday morning. Tan Tat Trusting unfortunately is the third of those emergencies but he is the horse I liked most in the race. He raced really well last campaign and it was a lengthy campaign. He probably didn’t get as many wins on the board as his form warranted but he still raced really well. I like him coming into this first up. He has had two really solid jump outs leading into this. His first one he was given a quiet time before being given a more rousing hit out in his most recent one over the 1400m. His record first up is good as is his record over the trip and I think if he gains a start he will run a big race here.

Another horse coming into this race first up from a spell is Snogging. Gee, this mare trialled well. Her form has tapered off a bit from earlier in her three year old season where she looked like she was going to go on and be a handy horse but she probably hasn’t gone on with the job to the level some might have thought she would have. That recent trial though was really impressive. It is hard judging horses too much off trials but she tracked up behind the speed and was never let off the bridle when coming off the leaders heels and winning easily. It all suggests she has come back well. I like her first up at this 1400m distance and if she can get into a good spot for Linda Meech she can be winning here. She is also the first emergency so she is most likely out of the three to get a run.

The second emergency and third horse I like in the race should he gain a start is Paremuus Boy. He was tried over a longer trip at Sandown last start and I am not sure that is his go. He got back out of his ground, he looked like he was moving into the race but probably peaked on his run late. He has been freshened since that and comes back to the 1400m here. He has also had a really stylish jump out at Camperdown to keep him up to the mark so at double figure odds happy to be with him if he gains a start.

Obviously a fair bit changes if those three don’t gain a start. If they don’t I would look at basing my bets around the dangers in the race pending odds. I think Kapaulenko would certainly be promoted at a price and then it will be deciding out of Renewal and the Tasmanian galloper in Fragment.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Snogging and Tan Tat Trusting here and $10 the win on Paremuus Boy! (at this stage)

Race Outlay

$60

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Wild Planet (No.4), Final Award (No.6) & Tahitian Dancer (No.9)

Dangers

Fasika (No.10), Green Aeon (No.11) & Millard Reaction (No.12)

Day Two of The Championships arrives at Royal Randwick on Saturday and after a cracking day up in Sydney last Saturday we are in for another outstanding day of racing. The Sydney weather started to turn last weekend while I was up there and it looks as if it has held firm through this week which means we will be racing on a good track come Saturday in my opinion. Obviously the eyes of the nation will be on Winx as she brings the curtain down on a career which is unparalleled. The level of domination seen over the past few years is certainly not anything I have seen before. Will she go down as my favourite horse? No, she won’t. I am amazed by her achievements but the utter domination has at the same time dulled the exhilaration of the competition which I love. That is nothing against her, it is just the fact that she is so good and so much better than any other horse.

She should round out her career in style and perhaps we will also see an heir apparent in Verry Elleegant stamp herself as a real superstar by winning the Oaks. Both are prohibitive odds of course and don’t represent anything from a betting point of view and that is why both races don’t appear in the preview. It should be good viewing though, in particular Verry Elleegant. If she can get the job done in the Oaks on Saturday I think there will be some real hype about her coming into next spring which will obviously be a much more open spring without Winx.

The track played well last Saturday, they got off the fence a bit as the day progressed and I would anticipate a similar pattern on Saturday but horses won on speed and from off speed so pretty fair all in all. Let’s get into the races we are actually betting into and I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m for the three year olds. This is a competitive race. There are some promising horses facing their toughest test here and it is an intriguing race. I certainly think the horse with the score on the board coming into this race is the Team Hawkes galloper Wild Planet. This horse races really well through the spring in Melbourne which culminated in a narrow defeat in the Carbine Club on Derby Day. He returned from a spell at big odds in the Derby Munro three weeks ago and ran an enormous race. He kept kicking up on the inside that day over the 1200m to keep the favourite Classique Legend working outside of him. He kicked back and beat that horse off only for Krone to dart up the inside and nab him late in the race. I thought it was an enormous first up return. The question is can he go on with the job after such a hard run first up. I think the three weeks between runs is certainly a big advantage. The step up to 1400m looks ideal and providing Tommy can roll forward from gate ten and find a good spot on speed he should prove hard to run down. Keen to be with him.

I am going to keep a couple of other runners on side. One of the few things I remember from that big weekend I had in Canberra a month back was that Final Award looked a really impressive animal winning the Canberra Guineas. He went back to last out of the gates that day but rounded his rivals up in the straight really impressively. Two starts prior to that he defeated the promising Amangiri who ran so well here last Saturday. He is clearly a horse of talent for mine. He has been freshened since that Canberra Guineas run but has had a very nice trial at Warwick Farm about a week and a half ago which has kept him up to the mark. I wish he hadn’t drawn gate on here. I would be much more confident had he drawn out but he will get back and if Williams can get him to the outside and clear air he will prove very hard to hold out so happy to be with him.

The other horse I want to be on in the race is Tahitian Dancer. This filly trialled super prior to her first up win and that win in itself at Mornington was super. She just held off the fast finishing Music Bay and there was a monster gap back to the third horse. Music Bay came out at Sandown and walked in on Wednesday which is a good sign. She gets down in the weights here from a nice middle draw for Brenton Avdulla and her form last campaign around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read well for a race of this nature so happy to be with her.

The chances don’t end there. The unbeaten trio of Fasika, Green Aeon and Millard Reaction all look really talented and I haven’t even mentioned Krone who rolled Wild Planet last start. Really good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wild Planet here! I will also have $15 the win on both Final Award and Tahitian Dancer!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

1:15pm

Suggested

Kiamichi (No.1), Flit (No.4) & Villami (No.7)

Dangers

Cheer Leader (No.5) & Athiri (No.6)

This race is for the two year old fillies over the 1200m. It is a two year old race so just back a Godolphin horse. Preview finished. Just kidding, kind of. That is how it is at the moment though isn’t it? The Godolphin two year olds are flying. We got one right last Saturday with Microphone in the Sires but not the first race when Bivouac beat Athiri home. To really make matters hard for us punters in this race James Cummings has decided to saddle up five runners. I have to admit I was pretty surprised Kiamichi didn’t come up favourite. I know she steps away from a wet track here for the first time in a few runs, but she is the Golden Slipper winner and this looks well within her scope. She backed up that Golden Slipper win with a really good run here last Saturday in the Sires. I have to admit when they turned for home I thought she looked the winner. She kicked clear and looked to have all her rivals off the bit and chasing. She just maybe failed to run the 1400m out strongly as she stopped quickly over the last 100m. I think she looks so well suited here. She drops back to 1200m, she is against her own sex and draws ideally in gate five for Hugh Bowman to either lead or land right outside the leader.

I know Cheer Leader was impressive at Moonee Valley last start and Lane riding her is maybe the lead punters are taking in backing her so heavily given he has been riding Kiamichi. However Cheer Leader is now nearly $2 shorter in the market than Kiamichi and for mine that is far too much of a discrepancy which makes Kiamichi a really good bet here. Happy to be with her.

I think Flit is the fresh blood on the scene that can make her presence felt. This is another Godolphin filly and she looks the up and comer that we perhaps haven’t got to the bottom of yet. She started a heavily backed odds on favourite on debut at Bendigo when running third before going to Flemington and sharing the spoils down the straight in a Group 3 race where I thought she went particularly well. She has come up to Sydney and trialled well earlier this week. She draws out for J-Mac but that will suit her as she looks to me to settle off the speed here and be the one coming over the top of them late. There looks to be good speed engaged so if they do overdo it up front I think she is the one that can be really strong late and around that $8 mark I think she is worth a ticket.

The throw at the stumps bet is Villami. This filly won well on debut and then started very firm in the market at her second start when well beaten behind Kiamichi. Kiamichi started around five times the price of Villami that day. Did the market just get it so wrong or was the heavy track to blame for Villami’s failure? Since then Villami has gone back to the trials and looked really stylish at Rosehill earlier this week. In this race the market has reversed she is about four to five times the price of Kiamichi. I reckon given that and the fact she gets back on to a drier surface here from gate one for The Gun she can run a big race and at the price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kiamichi here, $25 the win on Flit and $10 the win on Villami!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 2

1:41pm

Suggested

Debt Collector (No.7) & Heaven’s Deal (No.8)

Dangers

Split Lip (No.4) & Gytrash (No.9)

I am making a rare venture to Morphettville on Saturday. Given I am a bit light on in the preview in Brisbane and there are some quality horses running around in Adelaide I thought I would preview a few to bet into at this meeting. Ironically the race of most interest which is the last I am not betting in. That race features Behemoth and Anjana who both look really promising. Behemoth looked very exciting when winning at Moonee Valley back in December and hasn’t been seen since. His recent trial was excellent too. He runs into Anjana who is just flying at the moment and has been huge winning both runs this time in. Had Anjana drawn out I would have probably backed her but I am just worried from gate one she may find a bit of trouble and if Behemoth can take advantage of that with full momentum he will be hard to beat. They are both too short to back both but didn’t have a firm opinion either way to back one and not the other. I suggest watching the race though it will be good.

The weather is good in Adelaide and the track is also good for a good day of racing where I am kicking the betting off in the second race which is over the 1050m. I am looking forward to seeing the return of a horse here that I have a bit of time for in Debt Collector. I think he is a pretty handy horse. His form last campaign was really strong and he kicked that campaign off with a really good win over this track and trip. His last two runs of the campaign were the ones that really took my eye. He won so impressively two starts back over Going Gaga when coming from the clouds late and then was perhaps a touch unlucky at his most recent run to not reel in Like To Think So who was high rolling out in front while Debt Collector was held up for runs. He has had a quiet trial to tune him up for this which he went quite well in and even though he draws wide here, given his off speed racing pattern I don’t think that will be too big of a disadvantage given there are only eleven runners in the field. He won’t be too far off them and will have clear galloping room. He flies fresh, he likes this short course distance and I am happy to be with him.

I thought Heaven’s Deal with the two runs under her belt and a bit of fitness on side represented the danger. She will most likely jump on the bunny from gate four and if she can lead without doing too much work she could prove hard to run down. Most of the well fancied runners in this race are first up so if she can make the most of that fitness edge she can be very competitive and happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Debt Collector here and save with $25 the win on Heaven's Deal!

Race Outlay

$70

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