FREE HORSE RACING TIPS

Racing in Melbourne returns to Flemington this Saturday for what looks like being an outstanding Australian Guineas meeting. We certainly hope after this meeting we are talking more about the racing than the track bias or perceived track bias however you want to look at it after last Saturday at Caulfield. The weather in Melbourne has been relatively dry this week and as such we should be racing on a good track on Saturday with the rail out two metres. Even last time out here at Flemington the track did favour those up on speed early in the day before they went very quickly in the last two races which saw horses come from the back. I would expect the track to race fairly again on Saturday and certainly be tempo related in terms of where the winners come from. Also, would expect the best and fastest horses to also have more of a say in who is winning than the track conditions.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is for the stayers over the 2600m. I have to admit at first glance this does look to be a skinny race. I didn’t think there were too many chances and it looks an ideal opportunity for King Of Leogrance to break through for his maiden Australian victory. His form in Australia as a whole since joining the Lloyd Williams army from the UK has been very good, he just hasn’t been able to crack it for a victory. He was unlucky in a couple of runs back in the spring where he probably should have won at Moonee Valley and here at Flemington in particular. He was well backed first up when having his first start for the Danny O’Brien stable at Caulfield three weeks ago and ran well again without winning. On this occasion he had every chance though. He had a lovely run in transit but just couldn’t get past Ryan’s Fender in the closing stages. The track was suiting those on speed close to the rail at that early stage but more to the point I think it was the fitness Ryan’s Fender had on his side which proved decisive in the final stages.

I think with that run under his belt he should come to Flemington ready to play here second up. He strikes a race where he meets quite a few horses that I would describe as off season stayers whereas he clearly looks to be a horse capable of graduating to a pretty decent level and perhaps be a Sydney Cup type of horse. If that is the case then I think he should be dealing with these here. He gets in on the minimum weight for Damian Lane and providing he is fit enough coming into a 2600m second up I think he should prove hard to hold out from the good draw and keen to be with him.

It is a day that features quite a few short priced favourites. This race is no exception with Sylvia’s Mother coming up pretty short in the market off the back of a good first up win at Caulfield last start. She had a lovely run off the speed there over the 1200m and was strong late to run down News Girl. This is her first go at 1400m and she certainly looks to have found a winnable enough race to break through in. She is unbeaten second up as well so there is a fair bit to like about her. She does have to overcome gate one here which is potentially going to be her trickiest obstacle. She will most likely be a couple of pairs back on the fence and will need a touch of luck at the right time. Too much luck for mine to be playing at the short quote. I am not going to play too heavily around her nonetheless though as I think she is the one to beat she will just need that bit of luck.

I thought the two horses down the bottom might be worth small bets in the race. Cryptic Jewel is a very talented and lightly raced mare I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. She ran a couple of very good races last campaign in what was a fairly light preparation. She only had the two runs which included a pretty dominant win first up at Geelong before not a lot of luck at Caulfield second up. She looks to have come back well this time in. Her first up run at Sandown on a Lakeside track that certainly was favouring those up on speed was very good. She got a long way back and despite having a bit of an interrupted passage in the straight got through the line very well. I do like the fact that first up run was over the 1400m so she has now had that run over the trip under her belt. I like her drawn out as she will go back to last probably but hopefully be blending into the race in clear galloping room at the right time. Given the smallish field she should hopefully be close enough to the leaders in the run to unleash that big finish. She is down on the minimum with Craig Williams on board and around the $20+ mark I am going to have something on her just in case here.

The other horse down the bottom I will back is Cazabillie. This mare comes over from the Will Clarken stables in Adelaide and is another that is lightly raced and seemingly with a bit of upside. She strung together two dominant wins over this distance at the end of her last campaign to make it three wins from as many starts over this trip. She resumed with a solid enough effort when third at Morphettville over 1100m two weeks ago. Second up to her pet trip here I think she will run well. The key factor for her looks to be that she should find the lead quite comfortably and if that is the case and she can control things up front she should prove hard to get past. Around the $15-20 mark happy to have something on her also.

Racing in Sydney comes from Randwick this Saturday for a cracking dual Group One meeting. It is highlighted by the Chipping Norton and Surround Stakes and the appearance of this boom New Zealand galloper Te Akau Shark in that Chipping Norton. It looks a great day of racing. The weather in Sydney after a few weeks of wet weather has improved significantly. We will be racing on a dry track on Saturday with the rail in the true position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the track did advantage horses up on speed particularly early in the day.

I am kicking the day off in the fourth race which is the Liverpool City Cup over the 1300m at Group 3 level. This is a good race. There are some handy horses going around and a few of those are resuming. Cascadian was obviously very impressive first up when making up many lengths from the back and running second to Special Reward last start. He has developed a bit of a habit of being slow to begin however and draws gate one here so I just feel he is going to need a bit of luck in running and as a result I am not overly keen to tumble in at his quote. I do think he is probably the best horse in the race, I am just not sure this race is going to set up to his liking. There is also a fair bit of hype around this import making his debut for the Waller yard in Imaging. He has strong form overseas and has trialled up quite nicely in preparation for his Australian debut run. He is also very well found in the market though and I learnt that lesson last week about tumbling into horses short in the market that are fresh.

For all that is spoken about above I ended up settling on Vegadaze as being the horse to beat. I know this is a step up from the race he won last start but the race looks to set up ideally for him. He resumed with a good run behind Standout before dropping back in grade last start and defying a betting drift to win well. He gets good weight relief here, he has a bit of race fitness on side compared to his rivals having had the two runs back this time in and providing he can roll forward and land in front or outside the leader I think he might prove hard to get past. Keen to be with him.

Quackerjack looks like being the other horse that will get up on speed with him and we know that he is a pretty hard horse to get past. His form in four runs last campaign was excellent. He won the Goulburn Cup and Villiers in that campaign with similar performances. They were tough on pace wins. He looks likely to land on speed again for Josh Parr and I probably envisage him leading with Vegadaze sitting outside of him and I am just hoping the two of them can own the race in front and be hard to get past so I will have something on Quackerjack as well here.

This is another strong race on the program. It is the Guy Walter Proven Thoroughbred Stakes run over the 1400m for the mares. The majority of these horses come through the race won by Sweet Deal here two weeks ago. Gee, how well did she win? She was completely dominant there first up finding the front and effectively running her rivals into the ground. Can she do it again? I always find it hard to back a horse at $2.90 no matter how impressive they have been the start before when their SP at the previous win was $14. I think she took advantage of the race setup there. It was a brilliant ride by Nash as he made sure she took up the running and owned the race and she was far too good for her rivals. It was a little bit difficult trying to work out which horses could turn the tables on her.

For that reason the horse that appealed most was the different form reference of Con Te Partiro who resumes from a spell here. Both of this mare’s first up runs in Australia have been brilliant. At her Australian debut two preparations ago she won very well at Scone and last campaign she turned in a super performance when beaten less than a length by Deprive in the Show County. She seems to race really well fresh and I would suggest her two best runs here in Australia have come when fresh. She has trialled up nicely for this return run, she draws a nice middle gate for Tim Clark to push forward and ensure Sweet Deal isn’t getting a picnic in front and she also has the blinkers on which suggests she is coming to play here. I think she is going to run really well here and around the $5-6 mark looks a good bet.

I thought the two horses that looked potentially capable of turning the tables on Sweet Deal from that race two weeks ago were Pohutukawa and more from a price point of view Noire. Pohutukawa’s racing pattern probably doesn’t lend her to winning too many races at this level. She gets back out of her ground and needs a few things to go her way. I am not sure the pattern of the day was in her favour first up in the Triscay but she was clearly the best of the closers. I am just hoping up to the 1400m here and with a bit more pressure on Sweet Deal up front that she might be better suited to make that finishing burst and reel her in. She typically improves off her first up run into her second up run so keen to be with her.

Noire ran really well first up and there were a few whispers about for her that she was going to run a forward race. She looked to be over in what looked to be the better part of the track that day but she did get through the line well enough. Up to the 1400m second up she is well drawn to get a good run off the speed and I thought at the $15-20 on offer she was the one that potentially looked over the odds. As a result, happy to have something on her as we try and get Sweet Deal rolled.

Racing in Melbourne returns to Flemington this Saturday for what looks like being an outstanding Australian Guineas meeting. We certainly hope after this meeting we are talking more about the racing than the track bias or perceived track bias however you want to look at it after last Saturday at Caulfield. The weather in Melbourne has been relatively dry this week and as such we should be racing on a good track on Saturday with the rail out two metres. Even last time out here at Flemington the track did favour those up on speed early in the day before they went very quickly in the last two races which saw horses come from the back. I would expect the track to race fairly again on Saturday and certainly be tempo related in terms of where the winners come from. Also, would expect the best and fastest horses to also have more of a say in who is winning than the track conditions.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is for the stayers over the 2600m. I have to admit at first glance this does look to be a skinny race. I didn’t think there were too many chances and it looks an ideal opportunity for King Of Leogrance to break through for his maiden Australian victory. His form in Australia as a whole since joining the Lloyd Williams army from the UK has been very good, he just hasn’t been able to crack it for a victory. He was unlucky in a couple of runs back in the spring where he probably should have won at Moonee Valley and here at Flemington in particular. He was well backed first up when having his first start for the Danny O’Brien stable at Caulfield three weeks ago and ran well again without winning. On this occasion he had every chance though. He had a lovely run in transit but just couldn’t get past Ryan’s Fender in the closing stages. The track was suiting those on speed close to the rail at that early stage but more to the point I think it was the fitness Ryan’s Fender had on his side which proved decisive in the final stages.

I think with that run under his belt he should come to Flemington ready to play here second up. He strikes a race where he meets quite a few horses that I would describe as off season stayers whereas he clearly looks to be a horse capable of graduating to a pretty decent level and perhaps be a Sydney Cup type of horse. If that is the case then I think he should be dealing with these here. He gets in on the minimum weight for Damian Lane and providing he is fit enough coming into a 2600m second up I think he should prove hard to hold out from the good draw and keen to be with him.

It is a day that features quite a few short priced favourites. This race is no exception with Sylvia’s Mother coming up pretty short in the market off the back of a good first up win at Caulfield last start. She had a lovely run off the speed there over the 1200m and was strong late to run down News Girl. This is her first go at 1400m and she certainly looks to have found a winnable enough race to break through in. She is unbeaten second up as well so there is a fair bit to like about her. She does have to overcome gate one here which is potentially going to be her trickiest obstacle. She will most likely be a couple of pairs back on the fence and will need a touch of luck at the right time. Too much luck for mine to be playing at the short quote. I am not going to play too heavily around her nonetheless though as I think she is the one to beat she will just need that bit of luck.

I thought the two horses down the bottom might be worth small bets in the race. Cryptic Jewel is a very talented and lightly raced mare I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. She ran a couple of very good races last campaign in what was a fairly light preparation. She only had the two runs which included a pretty dominant win first up at Geelong before not a lot of luck at Caulfield second up. She looks to have come back well this time in. Her first up run at Sandown on a Lakeside track that certainly was favouring those up on speed was very good. She got a long way back and despite having a bit of an interrupted passage in the straight got through the line very well. I do like the fact that first up run was over the 1400m so she has now had that run over the trip under her belt. I like her drawn out as she will go back to last probably but hopefully be blending into the race in clear galloping room at the right time. Given the smallish field she should hopefully be close enough to the leaders in the run to unleash that big finish. She is down on the minimum with Craig Williams on board and around the $20+ mark I am going to have something on her just in case here.

The other horse down the bottom I will back is Cazabillie. This mare comes over from the Will Clarken stables in Adelaide and is another that is lightly raced and seemingly with a bit of upside. She strung together two dominant wins over this distance at the end of her last campaign to make it three wins from as many starts over this trip. She resumed with a solid enough effort when third at Morphettville over 1100m two weeks ago. Second up to her pet trip here I think she will run well. The key factor for her looks to be that she should find the lead quite comfortably and if that is the case and she can control things up front she should prove hard to get past. Around the $15-20 mark happy to have something on her also.

Racing in Sydney comes from Randwick this Saturday for a cracking dual Group One meeting. It is highlighted by the Chipping Norton and Surround Stakes and the appearance of this boom New Zealand galloper Te Akau Shark in that Chipping Norton. It looks a great day of racing. The weather in Sydney after a few weeks of wet weather has improved significantly. We will be racing on a dry track on Saturday with the rail in the true position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the track did advantage horses up on speed particularly early in the day.

I am kicking the day off in the fourth race which is the Liverpool City Cup over the 1300m at Group 3 level. This is a good race. There are some handy horses going around and a few of those are resuming. Cascadian was obviously very impressive first up when making up many lengths from the back and running second to Special Reward last start. He has developed a bit of a habit of being slow to begin however and draws gate one here so I just feel he is going to need a bit of luck in running and as a result I am not overly keen to tumble in at his quote. I do think he is probably the best horse in the race, I am just not sure this race is going to set up to his liking. There is also a fair bit of hype around this import making his debut for the Waller yard in Imaging. He has strong form overseas and has trialled up quite nicely in preparation for his Australian debut run. He is also very well found in the market though and I learnt that lesson last week about tumbling into horses short in the market that are fresh.

For all that is spoken about above I ended up settling on Vegadaze as being the horse to beat. I know this is a step up from the race he won last start but the race looks to set up ideally for him. He resumed with a good run behind Standout before dropping back in grade last start and defying a betting drift to win well. He gets good weight relief here, he has a bit of race fitness on side compared to his rivals having had the two runs back this time in and providing he can roll forward and land in front or outside the leader I think he might prove hard to get past. Keen to be with him.

Quackerjack looks like being the other horse that will get up on speed with him and we know that he is a pretty hard horse to get past. His form in four runs last campaign was excellent. He won the Goulburn Cup and Villiers in that campaign with similar performances. They were tough on pace wins. He looks likely to land on speed again for Josh Parr and I probably envisage him leading with Vegadaze sitting outside of him and I am just hoping the two of them can own the race in front and be hard to get past so I will have something on Quackerjack as well here.

This is another strong race on the program. It is the Guy Walter Proven Thoroughbred Stakes run over the 1400m for the mares. The majority of these horses come through the race won by Sweet Deal here two weeks ago. Gee, how well did she win? She was completely dominant there first up finding the front and effectively running her rivals into the ground. Can she do it again? I always find it hard to back a horse at $2.90 no matter how impressive they have been the start before when their SP at the previous win was $14. I think she took advantage of the race setup there. It was a brilliant ride by Nash as he made sure she took up the running and owned the race and she was far too good for her rivals. It was a little bit difficult trying to work out which horses could turn the tables on her.

For that reason the horse that appealed most was the different form reference of Con Te Partiro who resumes from a spell here. Both of this mare’s first up runs in Australia have been brilliant. At her Australian debut two preparations ago she won very well at Scone and last campaign she turned in a super performance when beaten less than a length by Deprive in the Show County. She seems to race really well fresh and I would suggest her two best runs here in Australia have come when fresh. She has trialled up nicely for this return run, she draws a nice middle gate for Tim Clark to push forward and ensure Sweet Deal isn’t getting a picnic in front and she also has the blinkers on which suggests she is coming to play here. I think she is going to run really well here and around the $5-6 mark looks a good bet.

I thought the two horses that looked potentially capable of turning the tables on Sweet Deal from that race two weeks ago were Pohutukawa and more from a price point of view Noire. Pohutukawa’s racing pattern probably doesn’t lend her to winning too many races at this level. She gets back out of her ground and needs a few things to go her way. I am not sure the pattern of the day was in her favour first up in the Triscay but she was clearly the best of the closers. I am just hoping up to the 1400m here and with a bit more pressure on Sweet Deal up front that she might be better suited to make that finishing burst and reel her in. She typically improves off her first up run into her second up run so keen to be with her.

Noire ran really well first up and there were a few whispers about for her that she was going to run a forward race. She looked to be over in what looked to be the better part of the track that day but she did get through the line well enough. Up to the 1400m second up she is well drawn to get a good run off the speed and I thought at the $15-20 on offer she was the one that potentially looked over the odds. As a result, happy to have something on her as we try and get Sweet Deal rolled.

Racing in Melbourne returns to Flemington this Saturday for what looks like being an outstanding Australian Guineas meeting. We certainly hope after this meeting we are talking more about the racing than the track bias or perceived track bias however you want to look at it after last Saturday at Caulfield. The weather in Melbourne has been relatively dry this week and as such we should be racing on a good track on Saturday with the rail out two metres. Even last time out here at Flemington the track did favour those up on speed early in the day before they went very quickly in the last two races which saw horses come from the back. I would expect the track to race fairly again on Saturday and certainly be tempo related in terms of where the winners come from. Also, would expect the best and fastest horses to also have more of a say in who is winning than the track conditions.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is for the stayers over the 2600m. I have to admit at first glance this does look to be a skinny race. I didn’t think there were too many chances and it looks an ideal opportunity for King Of Leogrance to break through for his maiden Australian victory. His form in Australia as a whole since joining the Lloyd Williams army from the UK has been very good, he just hasn’t been able to crack it for a victory. He was unlucky in a couple of runs back in the spring where he probably should have won at Moonee Valley and here at Flemington in particular. He was well backed first up when having his first start for the Danny O’Brien stable at Caulfield three weeks ago and ran well again without winning. On this occasion he had every chance though. He had a lovely run in transit but just couldn’t get past Ryan’s Fender in the closing stages. The track was suiting those on speed close to the rail at that early stage but more to the point I think it was the fitness Ryan’s Fender had on his side which proved decisive in the final stages.

I think with that run under his belt he should come to Flemington ready to play here second up. He strikes a race where he meets quite a few horses that I would describe as off season stayers whereas he clearly looks to be a horse capable of graduating to a pretty decent level and perhaps be a Sydney Cup type of horse. If that is the case then I think he should be dealing with these here. He gets in on the minimum weight for Damian Lane and providing he is fit enough coming into a 2600m second up I think he should prove hard to hold out from the good draw and keen to be with him.

It is a day that features quite a few short priced favourites. This race is no exception with Sylvia’s Mother coming up pretty short in the market off the back of a good first up win at Caulfield last start. She had a lovely run off the speed there over the 1200m and was strong late to run down News Girl. This is her first go at 1400m and she certainly looks to have found a winnable enough race to break through in. She is unbeaten second up as well so there is a fair bit to like about her. She does have to overcome gate one here which is potentially going to be her trickiest obstacle. She will most likely be a couple of pairs back on the fence and will need a touch of luck at the right time. Too much luck for mine to be playing at the short quote. I am not going to play too heavily around her nonetheless though as I think she is the one to beat she will just need that bit of luck.

I thought the two horses down the bottom might be worth small bets in the race. Cryptic Jewel is a very talented and lightly raced mare I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. She ran a couple of very good races last campaign in what was a fairly light preparation. She only had the two runs which included a pretty dominant win first up at Geelong before not a lot of luck at Caulfield second up. She looks to have come back well this time in. Her first up run at Sandown on a Lakeside track that certainly was favouring those up on speed was very good. She got a long way back and despite having a bit of an interrupted passage in the straight got through the line very well. I do like the fact that first up run was over the 1400m so she has now had that run over the trip under her belt. I like her drawn out as she will go back to last probably but hopefully be blending into the race in clear galloping room at the right time. Given the smallish field she should hopefully be close enough to the leaders in the run to unleash that big finish. She is down on the minimum with Craig Williams on board and around the $20+ mark I am going to have something on her just in case here.

The other horse down the bottom I will back is Cazabillie. This mare comes over from the Will Clarken stables in Adelaide and is another that is lightly raced and seemingly with a bit of upside. She strung together two dominant wins over this distance at the end of her last campaign to make it three wins from as many starts over this trip. She resumed with a solid enough effort when third at Morphettville over 1100m two weeks ago. Second up to her pet trip here I think she will run well. The key factor for her looks to be that she should find the lead quite comfortably and if that is the case and she can control things up front she should prove hard to get past. Around the $15-20 mark happy to have something on her also.

Racing in Sydney comes from Randwick this Saturday for a cracking dual Group One meeting. It is highlighted by the Chipping Norton and Surround Stakes and the appearance of this boom New Zealand galloper Te Akau Shark in that Chipping Norton. It looks a great day of racing. The weather in Sydney after a few weeks of wet weather has improved significantly. We will be racing on a dry track on Saturday with the rail in the true position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the track did advantage horses up on speed particularly early in the day.

I am kicking the day off in the fourth race which is the Liverpool City Cup over the 1300m at Group 3 level. This is a good race. There are some handy horses going around and a few of those are resuming. Cascadian was obviously very impressive first up when making up many lengths from the back and running second to Special Reward last start. He has developed a bit of a habit of being slow to begin however and draws gate one here so I just feel he is going to need a bit of luck in running and as a result I am not overly keen to tumble in at his quote. I do think he is probably the best horse in the race, I am just not sure this race is going to set up to his liking. There is also a fair bit of hype around this import making his debut for the Waller yard in Imaging. He has strong form overseas and has trialled up quite nicely in preparation for his Australian debut run. He is also very well found in the market though and I learnt that lesson last week about tumbling into horses short in the market that are fresh.

For all that is spoken about above I ended up settling on Vegadaze as being the horse to beat. I know this is a step up from the race he won last start but the race looks to set up ideally for him. He resumed with a good run behind Standout before dropping back in grade last start and defying a betting drift to win well. He gets good weight relief here, he has a bit of race fitness on side compared to his rivals having had the two runs back this time in and providing he can roll forward and land in front or outside the leader I think he might prove hard to get past. Keen to be with him.

Quackerjack looks like being the other horse that will get up on speed with him and we know that he is a pretty hard horse to get past. His form in four runs last campaign was excellent. He won the Goulburn Cup and Villiers in that campaign with similar performances. They were tough on pace wins. He looks likely to land on speed again for Josh Parr and I probably envisage him leading with Vegadaze sitting outside of him and I am just hoping the two of them can own the race in front and be hard to get past so I will have something on Quackerjack as well here.

This is another strong race on the program. It is the Guy Walter Proven Thoroughbred Stakes run over the 1400m for the mares. The majority of these horses come through the race won by Sweet Deal here two weeks ago. Gee, how well did she win? She was completely dominant there first up finding the front and effectively running her rivals into the ground. Can she do it again? I always find it hard to back a horse at $2.90 no matter how impressive they have been the start before when their SP at the previous win was $14. I think she took advantage of the race setup there. It was a brilliant ride by Nash as he made sure she took up the running and owned the race and she was far too good for her rivals. It was a little bit difficult trying to work out which horses could turn the tables on her.

For that reason the horse that appealed most was the different form reference of Con Te Partiro who resumes from a spell here. Both of this mare’s first up runs in Australia have been brilliant. At her Australian debut two preparations ago she won very well at Scone and last campaign she turned in a super performance when beaten less than a length by Deprive in the Show County. She seems to race really well fresh and I would suggest her two best runs here in Australia have come when fresh. She has trialled up nicely for this return run, she draws a nice middle gate for Tim Clark to push forward and ensure Sweet Deal isn’t getting a picnic in front and she also has the blinkers on which suggests she is coming to play here. I think she is going to run really well here and around the $5-6 mark looks a good bet.

I thought the two horses that looked potentially capable of turning the tables on Sweet Deal from that race two weeks ago were Pohutukawa and more from a price point of view Noire. Pohutukawa’s racing pattern probably doesn’t lend her to winning too many races at this level. She gets back out of her ground and needs a few things to go her way. I am not sure the pattern of the day was in her favour first up in the Triscay but she was clearly the best of the closers. I am just hoping up to the 1400m here and with a bit more pressure on Sweet Deal up front that she might be better suited to make that finishing burst and reel her in. She typically improves off her first up run into her second up run so keen to be with her.

Noire ran really well first up and there were a few whispers about for her that she was going to run a forward race. She looked to be over in what looked to be the better part of the track that day but she did get through the line well enough. Up to the 1400m second up she is well drawn to get a good run off the speed and I thought at the $15-20 on offer she was the one that potentially looked over the odds. As a result, happy to have something on her as we try and get Sweet Deal rolled.

Racing in Melbourne returns to Flemington this Saturday for what looks like being an outstanding Australian Guineas meeting. We certainly hope after this meeting we are talking more about the racing than the track bias or perceived track bias however you want to look at it after last Saturday at Caulfield. The weather in Melbourne has been relatively dry this week and as such we should be racing on a good track on Saturday with the rail out two metres. Even last time out here at Flemington the track did favour those up on speed early in the day before they went very quickly in the last two races which saw horses come from the back. I would expect the track to race fairly again on Saturday and certainly be tempo related in terms of where the winners come from. Also, would expect the best and fastest horses to also have more of a say in who is winning than the track conditions.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is for the stayers over the 2600m. I have to admit at first glance this does look to be a skinny race. I didn’t think there were too many chances and it looks an ideal opportunity for King Of Leogrance to break through for his maiden Australian victory. His form in Australia as a whole since joining the Lloyd Williams army from the UK has been very good, he just hasn’t been able to crack it for a victory. He was unlucky in a couple of runs back in the spring where he probably should have won at Moonee Valley and here at Flemington in particular. He was well backed first up when having his first start for the Danny O’Brien stable at Caulfield three weeks ago and ran well again without winning. On this occasion he had every chance though. He had a lovely run in transit but just couldn’t get past Ryan’s Fender in the closing stages. The track was suiting those on speed close to the rail at that early stage but more to the point I think it was the fitness Ryan’s Fender had on his side which proved decisive in the final stages.

I think with that run under his belt he should come to Flemington ready to play here second up. He strikes a race where he meets quite a few horses that I would describe as off season stayers whereas he clearly looks to be a horse capable of graduating to a pretty decent level and perhaps be a Sydney Cup type of horse. If that is the case then I think he should be dealing with these here. He gets in on the minimum weight for Damian Lane and providing he is fit enough coming into a 2600m second up I think he should prove hard to hold out from the good draw and keen to be with him.

It is a day that features quite a few short priced favourites. This race is no exception with Sylvia’s Mother coming up pretty short in the market off the back of a good first up win at Caulfield last start. She had a lovely run off the speed there over the 1200m and was strong late to run down News Girl. This is her first go at 1400m and she certainly looks to have found a winnable enough race to break through in. She is unbeaten second up as well so there is a fair bit to like about her. She does have to overcome gate one here which is potentially going to be her trickiest obstacle. She will most likely be a couple of pairs back on the fence and will need a touch of luck at the right time. Too much luck for mine to be playing at the short quote. I am not going to play too heavily around her nonetheless though as I think she is the one to beat she will just need that bit of luck.

I thought the two horses down the bottom might be worth small bets in the race. Cryptic Jewel is a very talented and lightly raced mare I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. She ran a couple of very good races last campaign in what was a fairly light preparation. She only had the two runs which included a pretty dominant win first up at Geelong before not a lot of luck at Caulfield second up. She looks to have come back well this time in. Her first up run at Sandown on a Lakeside track that certainly was favouring those up on speed was very good. She got a long way back and despite having a bit of an interrupted passage in the straight got through the line very well. I do like the fact that first up run was over the 1400m so she has now had that run over the trip under her belt. I like her drawn out as she will go back to last probably but hopefully be blending into the race in clear galloping room at the right time. Given the smallish field she should hopefully be close enough to the leaders in the run to unleash that big finish. She is down on the minimum with Craig Williams on board and around the $20+ mark I am going to have something on her just in case here.

The other horse down the bottom I will back is Cazabillie. This mare comes over from the Will Clarken stables in Adelaide and is another that is lightly raced and seemingly with a bit of upside. She strung together two dominant wins over this distance at the end of her last campaign to make it three wins from as many starts over this trip. She resumed with a solid enough effort when third at Morphettville over 1100m two weeks ago. Second up to her pet trip here I think she will run well. The key factor for her looks to be that she should find the lead quite comfortably and if that is the case and she can control things up front she should prove hard to get past. Around the $15-20 mark happy to have something on her also.

Racing in Sydney comes from Randwick this Saturday for a cracking dual Group One meeting. It is highlighted by the Chipping Norton and Surround Stakes and the appearance of this boom New Zealand galloper Te Akau Shark in that Chipping Norton. It looks a great day of racing. The weather in Sydney after a few weeks of wet weather has improved significantly. We will be racing on a dry track on Saturday with the rail in the true position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the track did advantage horses up on speed particularly early in the day.

I am kicking the day off in the fourth race which is the Liverpool City Cup over the 1300m at Group 3 level. This is a good race. There are some handy horses going around and a few of those are resuming. Cascadian was obviously very impressive first up when making up many lengths from the back and running second to Special Reward last start. He has developed a bit of a habit of being slow to begin however and draws gate one here so I just feel he is going to need a bit of luck in running and as a result I am not overly keen to tumble in at his quote. I do think he is probably the best horse in the race, I am just not sure this race is going to set up to his liking. There is also a fair bit of hype around this import making his debut for the Waller yard in Imaging. He has strong form overseas and has trialled up quite nicely in preparation for his Australian debut run. He is also very well found in the market though and I learnt that lesson last week about tumbling into horses short in the market that are fresh.

For all that is spoken about above I ended up settling on Vegadaze as being the horse to beat. I know this is a step up from the race he won last start but the race looks to set up ideally for him. He resumed with a good run behind Standout before dropping back in grade last start and defying a betting drift to win well. He gets good weight relief here, he has a bit of race fitness on side compared to his rivals having had the two runs back this time in and providing he can roll forward and land in front or outside the leader I think he might prove hard to get past. Keen to be with him.

Quackerjack looks like being the other horse that will get up on speed with him and we know that he is a pretty hard horse to get past. His form in four runs last campaign was excellent. He won the Goulburn Cup and Villiers in that campaign with similar performances. They were tough on pace wins. He looks likely to land on speed again for Josh Parr and I probably envisage him leading with Vegadaze sitting outside of him and I am just hoping the two of them can own the race in front and be hard to get past so I will have something on Quackerjack as well here.

This is another strong race on the program. It is the Guy Walter Proven Thoroughbred Stakes run over the 1400m for the mares. The majority of these horses come through the race won by Sweet Deal here two weeks ago. Gee, how well did she win? She was completely dominant there first up finding the front and effectively running her rivals into the ground. Can she do it again? I always find it hard to back a horse at $2.90 no matter how impressive they have been the start before when their SP at the previous win was $14. I think she took advantage of the race setup there. It was a brilliant ride by Nash as he made sure she took up the running and owned the race and she was far too good for her rivals. It was a little bit difficult trying to work out which horses could turn the tables on her.

For that reason the horse that appealed most was the different form reference of Con Te Partiro who resumes from a spell here. Both of this mare’s first up runs in Australia have been brilliant. At her Australian debut two preparations ago she won very well at Scone and last campaign she turned in a super performance when beaten less than a length by Deprive in the Show County. She seems to race really well fresh and I would suggest her two best runs here in Australia have come when fresh. She has trialled up nicely for this return run, she draws a nice middle gate for Tim Clark to push forward and ensure Sweet Deal isn’t getting a picnic in front and she also has the blinkers on which suggests she is coming to play here. I think she is going to run really well here and around the $5-6 mark looks a good bet.

I thought the two horses that looked potentially capable of turning the tables on Sweet Deal from that race two weeks ago were Pohutukawa and more from a price point of view Noire. Pohutukawa’s racing pattern probably doesn’t lend her to winning too many races at this level. She gets back out of her ground and needs a few things to go her way. I am not sure the pattern of the day was in her favour first up in the Triscay but she was clearly the best of the closers. I am just hoping up to the 1400m here and with a bit more pressure on Sweet Deal up front that she might be better suited to make that finishing burst and reel her in. She typically improves off her first up run into her second up run so keen to be with her.

Noire ran really well first up and there were a few whispers about for her that she was going to run a forward race. She looked to be over in what looked to be the better part of the track that day but she did get through the line well enough. Up to the 1400m second up she is well drawn to get a good run off the speed and I thought at the $15-20 on offer she was the one that potentially looked over the odds. As a result, happy to have something on her as we try and get Sweet Deal rolled.