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Select Race Meeting Event

Race 1

12:25pm

Suggested

Smart Coupe (No.5), Miss Wahoo (No.7) & Northern River (No.12)

Dangers

Chatuchak (No.4) & Favonski (No.6)

The main race meeting in Victoria this Saturday comes from Ballarat for their stand alone Saturday Cup meeting. Every year I say that I will have a Saturday off and give this meeting a miss, but here I am again and have found a few races to bet into. Six of the ten in total. The difficulty I have had with this meeting in previous years is trying to guess how the track will play. Last year the track was watered after some warm days through the week and then we got a downpour during the day which led to the track being very wet and horses off the fence being advantaged. Prior to that we have seen the track play very on speed advantaged. That is the conundrum again this year with a fair bit of rain around in the lead up to the meeting. There is a fair bit of rain coming on Thursday and a bit more on Friday so I would expect that we would get into the soft range and I think that would say the track play fairly even and again potentially see horses coming away from the fence a little bit. I would play close attention to the way the races are playing early on in the day though and don’t be scared to adjust bets through the day if the pattern is seriously pronounced.

I am kicking the day off nice and early in the first race of the day which is for the mares over the 1200m. It looks a competitive race with quite a few winning chances. Smart Coupe ended a little bit of a run of outs so to speak when breaking through at Kyneton last start and hopefully that is the catalyst for her to go right on with the job here. Everything panned out nicely for her there. She landed one out and one back stalking the speed and peeled to the outside in the straight and showed a nice turn of foot to let down and win well. She has been a bit of a frustrating filly. Personally going into that Kyneton race I was starting to worry if her best was behind her but going back through her runs she has probably been a victim of circumstances more than anything in that run of outs. She has just not had much luck either in running or with barrier draws or in terms of how races have been run. That was probably what appealed to me about her here in this race on Saturday is the fact that she maps to just get the gun run stalking the speed for an in form Stephanie Thornton. She should lob one out and one back behind the speed and from there she should be poised to produce that strong finish at the end of the race and hard to hold out so I will be backing her.

I would expect Miss Wahoo to improve here off the back of a flat second up run where she was heavily supported in Adelaide. This mare showed some good talent early in her career as a two year old and three year old. She resumed two starts back off an eight month break at Morphettville and ran really well when making up ground from the back behind Like To Think So in a fast run 1250m race. She then stepped up to the 1400m last start when second up and I just think she was a bit flat off that hard first up run over the shorter trip. She again encountered a fast run race but over the longer trip on this occasion wasn’t able to finish off. She comes back to the 1200m here which I think is a big plus and draws out to probably land three wide off the speed with a bit of cover. Providing you can make ground from off the speed early in the day she should be in the finish.

Northern River is the horse at odds I am going to save on. This mare ran well first up for the McLean stable at Kyneton on the same day Smart Coupe won. The race this mare comes out of was actually run in quicker time than Smart Coupe. I thought Northern River’s effort in that race was really good. She covered ground three wide with no cover back in the field and after looking like she was struggling round the turn, really picked up strongly late in the race to go down narrowly. I think she will be improved by that run and she draws to get a lovely smothering run just off the speed here. I think around that $15-20 mark with that run under her belt she might be capable of getting into the finish here and is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Smart Coupe here, $30 the win on Miss Wahoo and $10 the win on Northern River!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Absolute Flirt (No.5), Fact Or Fable (No.8) & Not A Royal Doubt (No.10)

Dangers

Ancestry (No.2) & Chavret (No.6)

I can honestly say that this is the first time I will be betting in the Magic Millions 2YO Clockwise Classic. It isn’t a race that has interested me in past years but I think we go into this year’s edition pretty well informed with the jump outs of all horses available quite easily. Throw in the fact that a lot of them have jumped out against each other and I actually found the form quite easy to line up. It is a wide open market too so if you find the winner you will be getting a pretty good price. Absolute Flirt from the Danny O’Brien stable has had the one jump out here at Ballarat going the clockwise way of going where she went really well in finishing off nicely alongside Chavret. She then backed that up with a really stylish trial win at Cranbourne a week and a half back and for mine she looks primed with those two hit outs under her belt to come here on debut and run really well. I like the fact that she sat off the speed in the jump out here and when asked for an effort quickened well and went through the line nicely. Then in the Cranbourne trial she cruised home after racing on the speed under little urging with plenty more to give. If she can improve again into race day I think she will be hard to beat. She draws gate seven which is potentially a little awkward as the bend is quite tight so you don’t want to be caught too wide but if Prebble can slot her in just off the speed I think she will be strong late over the 1000m and happy to be with her.

Fact Or Fable is another horse that I think will run well on debut. This filly from the Robbie Griffiths yard jumped out well at Cranbourne and then came here and won her jump out in nice fashion. She has shown good speed in both appearances and really quickened up nicely in the most recent jump out here when asked for an effort. It is starting to get to that stage of the season where the Robbie Griffiths stable kicks into gear too. She jumps form gate six and I think she will go pretty close to getting across most of the horses drawn inside her based on what I have seen at the jump outs and around the $8-9 mark she looks worth of a bet in my opinion.

The one that was hard to line up was obviously the Waterhouse runner in Not A Royal Doubt. This filly has trialled up in Sydney and hasn’t been seen against any of her rivals here in this race. This Waterhouse stable is just so good at producing well educated two year olds though that you have to respect this filly and it is pretty hard not to have something on her. She won her trial in Sydney pretty impressively showing good speed and defeating a subsequent two year old city winner up there. That all reads pretty well for a race of this nature. She draws out but she showed enough speed in that trial to suggest she might be able to come across and get outside the leader and if that is the case she looks a really professional type that will take some running down so happy to be with her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Not A Royal Doubt here, $25 the win on Absolute Flirt and $20 the win on Fact Or Fable!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

Irithea (No.1), Slow Burn (No.5) & Problem Solver (No.7)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.4) & Demerara (No.6)

Racing in Sydney again comes from Rosehill this Saturday. The rail moves back to the true position and it is another good meeting. The weather is dry and windy in the two days leading up to the meeting and with it already being rated as good I would expect the track to stay in that position and potentially be quite firm on Saturday. I am not really going to read too much into any pattern at Rosehill as for mine the track has played perfectly over the last three weeks irrespective of the rail position. I think we can bet there with confidence again on Saturday.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a competitive race. There are plenty of winning chances here. Sexy Eyes was the horse I really found it hard to get a line on in the race. She won brilliantly over 1400m two starts back running fast time before stepping up to the 1500m last start and scrambling over the line as a $1.30 favourite. It was still a good win with a good gap back to the third horse but the interesting thing here is that she drops all the way back to the 1200m. She also draws an inside gate for Tye Angland and I had her mapped a couple of pairs back on the fence here. She is going to need some luck from there. She has still come up a good price in the race though so that nearly tempted me to back her as I anticipated her coming up shorter but I think there might be a few better equipped over the 1200m to hopefully knock her off.

I am sticking with the fresh horses. The first of those is Slow Burn. This mare returns from a spell here after running well last campaign in strong races without ever really looking like winning. If you go through her form from that campaign though you will see that she never took on anything less than Group 3 level races and competed against horses such as Quilista, Ravi, Ghisoni and Sugar Bella all of whom would probably go around pretty short in a race of this nature. She resumes here in a race that certainly looks her level. She has had two trials to have her tuned right up for this and I expect her to come ready to play. The last trial in particular I thought she closed off really nicely alongside her stable mate in Seasons who won so impressively here last Saturday. She draws a nice middle gate here for Tim Clark with some good speed outside of her and I am hopeful that she can come across with that speed and land in a nice trailing position just off the speed. She has come up around the $8 mark in early markets and at those odds I am keen to be with her.

Problem Solver is another that mare that comes into the race fresh off a near two month freshen up. She resumed from a spell at Randwick at the end of September where she was most unlucky I thought behind Maximus in a strong Benchmark 88 against the males. I thought she just about should have won that day. Since that run she has been freshened as I have mentioned and her recent trial without the blinkers was quite good. She closed off nicely. She has been saved from a winnable race in Brisbane to run here and despite drawing out, I think if she can get into a trailing position with cover she will be really strong late. Happy to be with her.

I thought the horse over the odds in the race might be Irithea. This mare raced really well through the winter months and early spring. She strung together two wins over the 1400m in Benchmark company and then took on listed races where she chased home the likes of Shumookh and Savatiano. That reads well for a race of this nature. Her recent trial was strong and I like the way she responded when asked for an effort there. From gate five I think she should be able to take up the running for Jean Van Overmeire who is an excellent front running jockey and if she gets to the front I think she might prove hard to run down. Her 1200m record is very strong so happy to be with her at the double figure odds that are on offer in a good race.

Betting strategy

There looks to be a bit of value on offer here in this race! I will have $30 the win on both Slow Burn and Problem Solver and will save with $20 the win on Irithea with all of those around the $8-10 mark so hoping we can get a result with one of them!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

2:32pm

Suggested

Trusty Lad (No.3) & Heaza Good Boy (No.6)

Dangers

A Man To Match (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben again this Saturday after we had a bit of a frustrating run there last Saturday. Plumaro kicked the day off nicely but it went a bit south after that and was topped off by Magnufighter going down narrowly in the last race. I haven’t found a lot to jump out at me for this meeting. I actually had a couple of races picked out to bet into that I ended up scrapping as I was just spending too long on the form for those particular races and was seemingly no clearer. As a result I have ended up with just three races to bet into but am pretty keen on all three of those races. The weather has been pretty rough in Brisbane on Thursday but the forecast is for real warm and sunny days on Friday and Saturday. The track is currently in the soft range but I would expect it to dry out a fair bit leading into the meeting on Saturday. It is currently a Soft 7 though so I would expect we might struggle to get to good and might just stay in the soft range come Saturday. The track played well last Saturday with winners coming from up on speed and back in the field. The rail moves out six and a half metres on Saturday which may see it play a little bit more on speed. Let’s see how it plays out.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 1640m. The market has really narrowed this down to a race in two. A Man To Match and Trusty Lad have both come up pretty short in the market and every other runner is pretty much close to double figure odds. It is hard to dispute the fact that A Man To Match was a pretty good thing licked at the Sunshine Coast last start. I have genuine sympathy for anyone that was on him. He just got into a real awkward spot coming round the home turn and into the straight. He savaged the line late but was giving away too big a start and left his run far too late. Dale Smith goes on here and he shouldn’t have any traffic problems given he has drawn the second outside gate. I am still not going to back him despite all that. He is a horse that has been up for a little while and I feel there might be more improvement in his main rival in the betting in Trusty Lad.

This galloper returned from a spell with a super run at Doomben last start behind Light Up The Room. This bloke is just an out and out miler and beyond I feel. He ended his two year old campaign with a win here over this trip in a small field back in August. He won at good odds that day but was well supported in the market. He was spelled post that run and resumed three weeks ago behind Light Up The Room in a race where the form has already been franked with the fourth horse Plumaro winning impressively here last Saturday. Trusty Lad didn’t have the best of luck in that race. He beat Plumaro home but was held up halfway down the straight as he was starting his run. He savaged the line late but just failed to reel in the leaders. He goes quickly from the 1350m to the mile here and I would normally think that could be an issue but not in his case as he looks as if he will relish it. He again draws out so he will have to settle back in the field but providing the track is playing fair I am going to back him in to get over the top of them. I think he is a pretty handy horse despite the fact he went around $101 last start. We certainly won’t be getting those odds on Saturday but around the $3+ mark I was happy to have something on him to roll A Man To Match.

The roughie in the race I am going to save on is Heza Good Boy. This is more a bet based on the map. There just doesn’t look to be much speed in the race and this horse has improved at every start so far in his debut campaign. He was well beaten on debut before improving at his second start and then getting up on speed and breaking through at the Gold Coast two weeks ago. He draws a good gate for Jimmy Byrne to land on the speed again and if he gets an easy time of it in front he might prove hard to run down. Around the $15-20 mark I was happy to have something on him but I am pretty keen if Trusty Lad can be within striking distance he will be hard to hold out.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen on Trusty Lad here. I am not sure he will get shorter than the $3.50 mark he is at the moment given the SP of his previous start! I will have $60 the win on him and save with $15 the win on Heza Good Boy having half now at the $17 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day thinking he may shorten based on the map!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Miss Carboni (No.3) & Valse (No.8)

Dangers

Peppering (No.4) & Sweet Pickings (No.7)

Racing on a Friday afternoon comes from the great Royal Terang and I love a good meeting in this part of the world. It is a pretty quiet Friday in my office so I thought we tuck in with a Friday afternoon punt and I have whipped up a quick preview with a few races I am keen to bet into. Terang looks to have missed most of the rain that has hit other parts of Victoria and as such the track has come up rated as good with the rail in the true position.

I am kicking the day off in the first race which looks a competitive maiden despite the small field. I tweeted out earlier in the week that Valse would be a horse to watch in this maiden as the form lines around her last start run look really good. She chased home Lady Vega and My Pendant from the back of the field there and that form has held up really well with My Pendant bolting in at Sandown on Wednesday. Valse was only first up in that race and made good ground from the back of the field. I fancy if you can make ground from the back here that the big Ternag straight should suit her and happy to be in her corner.

Miss Carboni showed a bit in a Burrumbeet jump out back in October and makes her debut for the Archie Alexander stable here. She jumped on the bunny there and was pretty much throttled down on the line and still won the jump out comfortably. I would expect her to jump and lead from gate one and if she can run up to the jump out should prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

This is a handy maiden to kick the day off! I will have $40 the win on both Miss Carboni and Valse!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:00pm

Suggested

Crimson Tears (No.5) & Miss Street (No.8)

Dangers

Bel Robbie (No.3) & Lovin Th’castle (No.6)

This looks a pretty deep maiden over the 1200m. I was pretty keen on Miss Street here to break her maiden. This mare has raced really well in her four career starts to date. She was good in her debut campaign last year running two placings from three starts before going out for a long break. She resumed from effectively twelve months off the scene two weeks ago at Geelong. She ran really well there too I thought. She was well backed off the back of a solid trial and just didn’t have the luck when she needed it. She box seated behind the leader and just got held up for a run prior to the home turn. That proved costly as the leaders got away from her. She got clear and hit the line well but couldn’t reel in the two horses ahead of her. There was a good gap to the fourth horse though which is often a good sign. She draws well in gate two here for an in form Jamie Mott and I would expect her to be pretty hard to hold out. Keen to be with her.

I am saving on Crimson Tears from the Weir yard who was well in the market in her two starts in her first campaign. She didn’t do a lot in those runs but had obviously shown a bit at home given her SP profile. Her recent jump out at Ballarat looked quite stylish for mine. She has Yendall on from gate three and happy to have her in my corner as a saving bet behind Miss Street. I am wary of the first up mare from the Gelagotis yard in Lovin Th’castle who has been well tried in betting this morning but I couldn’t really take much from her trial so risking her but obviously respect the stable and the support.

Betting strategy

Miss Street looks just about the best of the day for mine! I will have $75 the win on her and cover the bet by saving with $15 the win on Crimson Tears hoping we get $6+!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:10pm

Suggested

Bomb Blast (No.1), Chortomic (No.2), Talk’emaround (No.9) & Countess De Galvez (No.14)

Dangers

Savvy Boy (No.7) & Fatuma (No.12)

This is a deep maiden here with plenty of winning chances. I am happy to play pretty wide. Talk’emaround looks to have his hoof on the till. His two runs back from a spell this time in have been good. He ran well first up behind Mumbles in a maiden at Stawell before just being touched off at Ararat last start in what looked a handy maiden after racing on speed. He should be primed here third up from a spell and I would expect him to roll across from the wide draw and take up a position on speed for Jarrod Fry. The 1400m is probably the slight question mark but if he handles that I expect him to be pretty hard to hold out and happy to be with him.

Bomb Blast comes through that same maiden having run third in the race and I think he can be a big improver here second up at double figure odds. He got back out of his ground in that maiden and made up really good ground late. He is one that will certainly be suited by the step up to 1400m and I am more than happy to have something on him at the price. I think he is over the odds.

I don’t want to be losing on the race if the Weir runner in Countess De Galvez can salute. She ran well on debut behind Mumbles in the same race that Talk’emaround was in and beat that horse home running second. She then got back out of her ground in a strong maiden at Ballarat last start and hit the line well. She was jumping from 1100m to 1400m there so she should be well suited here with that run over this trip under her belt and at her third start I would expect her to improve again and be in the finish.

Chortomic is the other horse at odds I want to be on. This galloper showed good speed on debut in a handy maiden at Hamilton before getting back out of his ground at The Bool last start. I thought he worked through the line quite nicely in that race from the back of the field on a day where it wasn’t easy to make ground. He draws a nice middle gate here and while I was hoping after jotting him down in that maiden last start that he would find an easier maiden I am happy to be with him here at the good odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Talk’emaround here! I will also have $25 the win on Countess De Galvez and $15 the win on Bomb Blast and Chortomic with the latter being well backed this morning!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 6

3:20pm

Suggested

Lonruse (No.4), Bernie’s Regret (No.7), Careering Away (No.9) & Lunch At Rulers (No.11)

Dangers

Ruby Sea (No.2) & Allspice (No.6)

This is another deep race over the 1400m with quite a few winning chances. I was pretty keen on Bernie’s Regret when first up from a spell at The Bool two starts ago and he disappointed. He bounced back second up though and ran really well behind Von Mystic and I am happy to give him another shot here. He draws to get a good run on the speed for Jarrod Fry from gate three and if he can hold a position a bit closer to the lead today then I am hopeful that he might be able to get over the top of them. Happy to be with him.

Careering Away gets up to the 1400m here and I think that could be a key factor. He has been hitting the line well over the shorter trips and I think at his fourth run back from a spell he should be primed to run well up in trip. He draws a middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Jamie Mott and happy to be with him.

I certainly want to have something on Lonruse at double figure odds. This galloper from the Paul Presuker yard won his only start here in a maiden back on New Years Day. His runs this campaign have been mixed. He kicked off over 1000m at Warracknabeal and worked to the line fairly before taking on a strong BM64 at Ballarat and being well beaten. He was then freshened up before leading the field up over 1400m at Horsham last start and compounding late. I am hoping he has taken good benefit from that even though he is a month between runs again. He just looked short of a run that day and from gate one here I am hoping he can roll forward on speed and be hard to run down. Happy to be with him at double figure odds.

I am also going to have something on Lunch At Rulers at big odds. This galloper won well at Mortlake in a handy maiden last start when I was on him and I was surprised he come up $30+ in the early markets here so at that price I thought he was worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bernie’s Regret here, $25 the win on Careering Away! I will have $15 the win on Lonruse locking in the $15 about him and $10 the win on Lunch At Rulers having half now at the $41 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:30pm

Suggested

Delightful Cat (No.6) & Gin Atomic (No.12)

Dangers

Juanito Uvez (No.3) & Grogans Anvil (No.7)

I am pretty keen on Gin Atomic here as it seems most punters are. She has been well supported right through the morning and I think she looks to be one of the better bets of the day. She is a mare that has always shown good talent and has often started pretty short in the market. She has been beaten favourite a few times in her career. I think she should run well here though. She was a big run at Penola first up when she was a bit soft in the market. She got a long way back over the 1100m and hit the line strongly from the back. She looked like she was going to finish well back but actually ended up getting pretty close at the finish. She draws wide here for Jordan Childs so I anticipate she will go back again but think she strikes a pretty winnable race. If she has come on from the first up run and gets a bit of luck from the draw I think she will be winning.

It is a 1000m race though and there is the potential for her to be spotting some of these horses up front a fair start. Delightful Cat is fit and in form and comes through a couple of handy races at her last two starts. She should jump on the bunny from gate three and be pretty hard to run down. She is a winner here and her 1000m record is quite good. Keen to have her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Gin Atomic having half now at the $4.80 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote later in the day! I will save with $30 the win on Delightful Cat!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Mumbles (No.12) & Suplex City (No.16)

Dangers

Caribbean Pearl (No.10) & Immaculate Secret (No.11)

This is a handy race to finish the day on over the 1200m. Mumbles looks to have come back from a spell in good order this time in. He was a cracking win at Stawell first up to break his maiden coming from off the speed and wide around the bend to round his rivals up and salute in good fashion. He then went to Moonee Valley and ran well in a strong race behind Jentico. He looks to get a nice setup here. He draws nicely in gate six to land just off the speed. I think the long Terang straight will certainly suit him better than Moonee Valley last start and happy to be with him.

Suplex City looks a horse with good scope. He has always been a horse that has shown a good deal of talent. He resumed off a long break for the new stable at The Bool last start with a pretty dominant win and I fancy there might be a bit more to come from him. He looks to have a bit of upside; I don’t mind him drawn out and happy to be with him second up.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Suplex City here and $30 the win on Mumbles in the last race!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

12:25pm

Suggested

Smart Coupe (No.5), Miss Wahoo (No.7) & Northern River (No.12)

Dangers

Chatuchak (No.4) & Favonski (No.6)

The main race meeting in Victoria this Saturday comes from Ballarat for their stand alone Saturday Cup meeting. Every year I say that I will have a Saturday off and give this meeting a miss, but here I am again and have found a few races to bet into. Six of the ten in total. The difficulty I have had with this meeting in previous years is trying to guess how the track will play. Last year the track was watered after some warm days through the week and then we got a downpour during the day which led to the track being very wet and horses off the fence being advantaged. Prior to that we have seen the track play very on speed advantaged. That is the conundrum again this year with a fair bit of rain around in the lead up to the meeting. There is a fair bit of rain coming on Thursday and a bit more on Friday so I would expect that we would get into the soft range and I think that would say the track play fairly even and again potentially see horses coming away from the fence a little bit. I would play close attention to the way the races are playing early on in the day though and don’t be scared to adjust bets through the day if the pattern is seriously pronounced.

I am kicking the day off nice and early in the first race of the day which is for the mares over the 1200m. It looks a competitive race with quite a few winning chances. Smart Coupe ended a little bit of a run of outs so to speak when breaking through at Kyneton last start and hopefully that is the catalyst for her to go right on with the job here. Everything panned out nicely for her there. She landed one out and one back stalking the speed and peeled to the outside in the straight and showed a nice turn of foot to let down and win well. She has been a bit of a frustrating filly. Personally going into that Kyneton race I was starting to worry if her best was behind her but going back through her runs she has probably been a victim of circumstances more than anything in that run of outs. She has just not had much luck either in running or with barrier draws or in terms of how races have been run. That was probably what appealed to me about her here in this race on Saturday is the fact that she maps to just get the gun run stalking the speed for an in form Stephanie Thornton. She should lob one out and one back behind the speed and from there she should be poised to produce that strong finish at the end of the race and hard to hold out so I will be backing her.

I would expect Miss Wahoo to improve here off the back of a flat second up run where she was heavily supported in Adelaide. This mare showed some good talent early in her career as a two year old and three year old. She resumed two starts back off an eight month break at Morphettville and ran really well when making up ground from the back behind Like To Think So in a fast run 1250m race. She then stepped up to the 1400m last start when second up and I just think she was a bit flat off that hard first up run over the shorter trip. She again encountered a fast run race but over the longer trip on this occasion wasn’t able to finish off. She comes back to the 1200m here which I think is a big plus and draws out to probably land three wide off the speed with a bit of cover. Providing you can make ground from off the speed early in the day she should be in the finish.

Northern River is the horse at odds I am going to save on. This mare ran well first up for the McLean stable at Kyneton on the same day Smart Coupe won. The race this mare comes out of was actually run in quicker time than Smart Coupe. I thought Northern River’s effort in that race was really good. She covered ground three wide with no cover back in the field and after looking like she was struggling round the turn, really picked up strongly late in the race to go down narrowly. I think she will be improved by that run and she draws to get a lovely smothering run just off the speed here. I think around that $15-20 mark with that run under her belt she might be capable of getting into the finish here and is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Smart Coupe here, $30 the win on Miss Wahoo and $10 the win on Northern River!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Absolute Flirt (No.5), Fact Or Fable (No.8) & Not A Royal Doubt (No.10)

Dangers

Ancestry (No.2) & Chavret (No.6)

I can honestly say that this is the first time I will be betting in the Magic Millions 2YO Clockwise Classic. It isn’t a race that has interested me in past years but I think we go into this year’s edition pretty well informed with the jump outs of all horses available quite easily. Throw in the fact that a lot of them have jumped out against each other and I actually found the form quite easy to line up. It is a wide open market too so if you find the winner you will be getting a pretty good price. Absolute Flirt from the Danny O’Brien stable has had the one jump out here at Ballarat going the clockwise way of going where she went really well in finishing off nicely alongside Chavret. She then backed that up with a really stylish trial win at Cranbourne a week and a half back and for mine she looks primed with those two hit outs under her belt to come here on debut and run really well. I like the fact that she sat off the speed in the jump out here and when asked for an effort quickened well and went through the line nicely. Then in the Cranbourne trial she cruised home after racing on the speed under little urging with plenty more to give. If she can improve again into race day I think she will be hard to beat. She draws gate seven which is potentially a little awkward as the bend is quite tight so you don’t want to be caught too wide but if Prebble can slot her in just off the speed I think she will be strong late over the 1000m and happy to be with her.

Fact Or Fable is another horse that I think will run well on debut. This filly from the Robbie Griffiths yard jumped out well at Cranbourne and then came here and won her jump out in nice fashion. She has shown good speed in both appearances and really quickened up nicely in the most recent jump out here when asked for an effort. It is starting to get to that stage of the season where the Robbie Griffiths stable kicks into gear too. She jumps form gate six and I think she will go pretty close to getting across most of the horses drawn inside her based on what I have seen at the jump outs and around the $8-9 mark she looks worth of a bet in my opinion.

The one that was hard to line up was obviously the Waterhouse runner in Not A Royal Doubt. This filly has trialled up in Sydney and hasn’t been seen against any of her rivals here in this race. This Waterhouse stable is just so good at producing well educated two year olds though that you have to respect this filly and it is pretty hard not to have something on her. She won her trial in Sydney pretty impressively showing good speed and defeating a subsequent two year old city winner up there. That all reads pretty well for a race of this nature. She draws out but she showed enough speed in that trial to suggest she might be able to come across and get outside the leader and if that is the case she looks a really professional type that will take some running down so happy to be with her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Not A Royal Doubt here, $25 the win on Absolute Flirt and $20 the win on Fact Or Fable!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

Irithea (No.1), Slow Burn (No.5) & Problem Solver (No.7)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.4) & Demerara (No.6)

Racing in Sydney again comes from Rosehill this Saturday. The rail moves back to the true position and it is another good meeting. The weather is dry and windy in the two days leading up to the meeting and with it already being rated as good I would expect the track to stay in that position and potentially be quite firm on Saturday. I am not really going to read too much into any pattern at Rosehill as for mine the track has played perfectly over the last three weeks irrespective of the rail position. I think we can bet there with confidence again on Saturday.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a competitive race. There are plenty of winning chances here. Sexy Eyes was the horse I really found it hard to get a line on in the race. She won brilliantly over 1400m two starts back running fast time before stepping up to the 1500m last start and scrambling over the line as a $1.30 favourite. It was still a good win with a good gap back to the third horse but the interesting thing here is that she drops all the way back to the 1200m. She also draws an inside gate for Tye Angland and I had her mapped a couple of pairs back on the fence here. She is going to need some luck from there. She has still come up a good price in the race though so that nearly tempted me to back her as I anticipated her coming up shorter but I think there might be a few better equipped over the 1200m to hopefully knock her off.

I am sticking with the fresh horses. The first of those is Slow Burn. This mare returns from a spell here after running well last campaign in strong races without ever really looking like winning. If you go through her form from that campaign though you will see that she never took on anything less than Group 3 level races and competed against horses such as Quilista, Ravi, Ghisoni and Sugar Bella all of whom would probably go around pretty short in a race of this nature. She resumes here in a race that certainly looks her level. She has had two trials to have her tuned right up for this and I expect her to come ready to play. The last trial in particular I thought she closed off really nicely alongside her stable mate in Seasons who won so impressively here last Saturday. She draws a nice middle gate here for Tim Clark with some good speed outside of her and I am hopeful that she can come across with that speed and land in a nice trailing position just off the speed. She has come up around the $8 mark in early markets and at those odds I am keen to be with her.

Problem Solver is another that mare that comes into the race fresh off a near two month freshen up. She resumed from a spell at Randwick at the end of September where she was most unlucky I thought behind Maximus in a strong Benchmark 88 against the males. I thought she just about should have won that day. Since that run she has been freshened as I have mentioned and her recent trial without the blinkers was quite good. She closed off nicely. She has been saved from a winnable race in Brisbane to run here and despite drawing out, I think if she can get into a trailing position with cover she will be really strong late. Happy to be with her.

I thought the horse over the odds in the race might be Irithea. This mare raced really well through the winter months and early spring. She strung together two wins over the 1400m in Benchmark company and then took on listed races where she chased home the likes of Shumookh and Savatiano. That reads well for a race of this nature. Her recent trial was strong and I like the way she responded when asked for an effort there. From gate five I think she should be able to take up the running for Jean Van Overmeire who is an excellent front running jockey and if she gets to the front I think she might prove hard to run down. Her 1200m record is very strong so happy to be with her at the double figure odds that are on offer in a good race.

Betting strategy

There looks to be a bit of value on offer here in this race! I will have $30 the win on both Slow Burn and Problem Solver and will save with $20 the win on Irithea with all of those around the $8-10 mark so hoping we can get a result with one of them!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

2:32pm

Suggested

Trusty Lad (No.3) & Heaza Good Boy (No.6)

Dangers

A Man To Match (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben again this Saturday after we had a bit of a frustrating run there last Saturday. Plumaro kicked the day off nicely but it went a bit south after that and was topped off by Magnufighter going down narrowly in the last race. I haven’t found a lot to jump out at me for this meeting. I actually had a couple of races picked out to bet into that I ended up scrapping as I was just spending too long on the form for those particular races and was seemingly no clearer. As a result I have ended up with just three races to bet into but am pretty keen on all three of those races. The weather has been pretty rough in Brisbane on Thursday but the forecast is for real warm and sunny days on Friday and Saturday. The track is currently in the soft range but I would expect it to dry out a fair bit leading into the meeting on Saturday. It is currently a Soft 7 though so I would expect we might struggle to get to good and might just stay in the soft range come Saturday. The track played well last Saturday with winners coming from up on speed and back in the field. The rail moves out six and a half metres on Saturday which may see it play a little bit more on speed. Let’s see how it plays out.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 1640m. The market has really narrowed this down to a race in two. A Man To Match and Trusty Lad have both come up pretty short in the market and every other runner is pretty much close to double figure odds. It is hard to dispute the fact that A Man To Match was a pretty good thing licked at the Sunshine Coast last start. I have genuine sympathy for anyone that was on him. He just got into a real awkward spot coming round the home turn and into the straight. He savaged the line late but was giving away too big a start and left his run far too late. Dale Smith goes on here and he shouldn’t have any traffic problems given he has drawn the second outside gate. I am still not going to back him despite all that. He is a horse that has been up for a little while and I feel there might be more improvement in his main rival in the betting in Trusty Lad.

This galloper returned from a spell with a super run at Doomben last start behind Light Up The Room. This bloke is just an out and out miler and beyond I feel. He ended his two year old campaign with a win here over this trip in a small field back in August. He won at good odds that day but was well supported in the market. He was spelled post that run and resumed three weeks ago behind Light Up The Room in a race where the form has already been franked with the fourth horse Plumaro winning impressively here last Saturday. Trusty Lad didn’t have the best of luck in that race. He beat Plumaro home but was held up halfway down the straight as he was starting his run. He savaged the line late but just failed to reel in the leaders. He goes quickly from the 1350m to the mile here and I would normally think that could be an issue but not in his case as he looks as if he will relish it. He again draws out so he will have to settle back in the field but providing the track is playing fair I am going to back him in to get over the top of them. I think he is a pretty handy horse despite the fact he went around $101 last start. We certainly won’t be getting those odds on Saturday but around the $3+ mark I was happy to have something on him to roll A Man To Match.

The roughie in the race I am going to save on is Heza Good Boy. This is more a bet based on the map. There just doesn’t look to be much speed in the race and this horse has improved at every start so far in his debut campaign. He was well beaten on debut before improving at his second start and then getting up on speed and breaking through at the Gold Coast two weeks ago. He draws a good gate for Jimmy Byrne to land on the speed again and if he gets an easy time of it in front he might prove hard to run down. Around the $15-20 mark I was happy to have something on him but I am pretty keen if Trusty Lad can be within striking distance he will be hard to hold out.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen on Trusty Lad here. I am not sure he will get shorter than the $3.50 mark he is at the moment given the SP of his previous start! I will have $60 the win on him and save with $15 the win on Heza Good Boy having half now at the $17 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day thinking he may shorten based on the map!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Miss Carboni (No.3) & Valse (No.8)

Dangers

Peppering (No.4) & Sweet Pickings (No.7)

Racing on a Friday afternoon comes from the great Royal Terang and I love a good meeting in this part of the world. It is a pretty quiet Friday in my office so I thought we tuck in with a Friday afternoon punt and I have whipped up a quick preview with a few races I am keen to bet into. Terang looks to have missed most of the rain that has hit other parts of Victoria and as such the track has come up rated as good with the rail in the true position.

I am kicking the day off in the first race which looks a competitive maiden despite the small field. I tweeted out earlier in the week that Valse would be a horse to watch in this maiden as the form lines around her last start run look really good. She chased home Lady Vega and My Pendant from the back of the field there and that form has held up really well with My Pendant bolting in at Sandown on Wednesday. Valse was only first up in that race and made good ground from the back of the field. I fancy if you can make ground from the back here that the big Ternag straight should suit her and happy to be in her corner.

Miss Carboni showed a bit in a Burrumbeet jump out back in October and makes her debut for the Archie Alexander stable here. She jumped on the bunny there and was pretty much throttled down on the line and still won the jump out comfortably. I would expect her to jump and lead from gate one and if she can run up to the jump out should prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

This is a handy maiden to kick the day off! I will have $40 the win on both Miss Carboni and Valse!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:00pm

Suggested

Crimson Tears (No.5) & Miss Street (No.8)

Dangers

Bel Robbie (No.3) & Lovin Th’castle (No.6)

This looks a pretty deep maiden over the 1200m. I was pretty keen on Miss Street here to break her maiden. This mare has raced really well in her four career starts to date. She was good in her debut campaign last year running two placings from three starts before going out for a long break. She resumed from effectively twelve months off the scene two weeks ago at Geelong. She ran really well there too I thought. She was well backed off the back of a solid trial and just didn’t have the luck when she needed it. She box seated behind the leader and just got held up for a run prior to the home turn. That proved costly as the leaders got away from her. She got clear and hit the line well but couldn’t reel in the two horses ahead of her. There was a good gap to the fourth horse though which is often a good sign. She draws well in gate two here for an in form Jamie Mott and I would expect her to be pretty hard to hold out. Keen to be with her.

I am saving on Crimson Tears from the Weir yard who was well in the market in her two starts in her first campaign. She didn’t do a lot in those runs but had obviously shown a bit at home given her SP profile. Her recent jump out at Ballarat looked quite stylish for mine. She has Yendall on from gate three and happy to have her in my corner as a saving bet behind Miss Street. I am wary of the first up mare from the Gelagotis yard in Lovin Th’castle who has been well tried in betting this morning but I couldn’t really take much from her trial so risking her but obviously respect the stable and the support.

Betting strategy

Miss Street looks just about the best of the day for mine! I will have $75 the win on her and cover the bet by saving with $15 the win on Crimson Tears hoping we get $6+!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:10pm

Suggested

Bomb Blast (No.1), Chortomic (No.2), Talk’emaround (No.9) & Countess De Galvez (No.14)

Dangers

Savvy Boy (No.7) & Fatuma (No.12)

This is a deep maiden here with plenty of winning chances. I am happy to play pretty wide. Talk’emaround looks to have his hoof on the till. His two runs back from a spell this time in have been good. He ran well first up behind Mumbles in a maiden at Stawell before just being touched off at Ararat last start in what looked a handy maiden after racing on speed. He should be primed here third up from a spell and I would expect him to roll across from the wide draw and take up a position on speed for Jarrod Fry. The 1400m is probably the slight question mark but if he handles that I expect him to be pretty hard to hold out and happy to be with him.

Bomb Blast comes through that same maiden having run third in the race and I think he can be a big improver here second up at double figure odds. He got back out of his ground in that maiden and made up really good ground late. He is one that will certainly be suited by the step up to 1400m and I am more than happy to have something on him at the price. I think he is over the odds.

I don’t want to be losing on the race if the Weir runner in Countess De Galvez can salute. She ran well on debut behind Mumbles in the same race that Talk’emaround was in and beat that horse home running second. She then got back out of her ground in a strong maiden at Ballarat last start and hit the line well. She was jumping from 1100m to 1400m there so she should be well suited here with that run over this trip under her belt and at her third start I would expect her to improve again and be in the finish.

Chortomic is the other horse at odds I want to be on. This galloper showed good speed on debut in a handy maiden at Hamilton before getting back out of his ground at The Bool last start. I thought he worked through the line quite nicely in that race from the back of the field on a day where it wasn’t easy to make ground. He draws a nice middle gate here and while I was hoping after jotting him down in that maiden last start that he would find an easier maiden I am happy to be with him here at the good odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Talk’emaround here! I will also have $25 the win on Countess De Galvez and $15 the win on Bomb Blast and Chortomic with the latter being well backed this morning!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 6

3:20pm

Suggested

Lonruse (No.4), Bernie’s Regret (No.7), Careering Away (No.9) & Lunch At Rulers (No.11)

Dangers

Ruby Sea (No.2) & Allspice (No.6)

This is another deep race over the 1400m with quite a few winning chances. I was pretty keen on Bernie’s Regret when first up from a spell at The Bool two starts ago and he disappointed. He bounced back second up though and ran really well behind Von Mystic and I am happy to give him another shot here. He draws to get a good run on the speed for Jarrod Fry from gate three and if he can hold a position a bit closer to the lead today then I am hopeful that he might be able to get over the top of them. Happy to be with him.

Careering Away gets up to the 1400m here and I think that could be a key factor. He has been hitting the line well over the shorter trips and I think at his fourth run back from a spell he should be primed to run well up in trip. He draws a middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Jamie Mott and happy to be with him.

I certainly want to have something on Lonruse at double figure odds. This galloper from the Paul Presuker yard won his only start here in a maiden back on New Years Day. His runs this campaign have been mixed. He kicked off over 1000m at Warracknabeal and worked to the line fairly before taking on a strong BM64 at Ballarat and being well beaten. He was then freshened up before leading the field up over 1400m at Horsham last start and compounding late. I am hoping he has taken good benefit from that even though he is a month between runs again. He just looked short of a run that day and from gate one here I am hoping he can roll forward on speed and be hard to run down. Happy to be with him at double figure odds.

I am also going to have something on Lunch At Rulers at big odds. This galloper won well at Mortlake in a handy maiden last start when I was on him and I was surprised he come up $30+ in the early markets here so at that price I thought he was worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bernie’s Regret here, $25 the win on Careering Away! I will have $15 the win on Lonruse locking in the $15 about him and $10 the win on Lunch At Rulers having half now at the $41 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:30pm

Suggested

Delightful Cat (No.6) & Gin Atomic (No.12)

Dangers

Juanito Uvez (No.3) & Grogans Anvil (No.7)

I am pretty keen on Gin Atomic here as it seems most punters are. She has been well supported right through the morning and I think she looks to be one of the better bets of the day. She is a mare that has always shown good talent and has often started pretty short in the market. She has been beaten favourite a few times in her career. I think she should run well here though. She was a big run at Penola first up when she was a bit soft in the market. She got a long way back over the 1100m and hit the line strongly from the back. She looked like she was going to finish well back but actually ended up getting pretty close at the finish. She draws wide here for Jordan Childs so I anticipate she will go back again but think she strikes a pretty winnable race. If she has come on from the first up run and gets a bit of luck from the draw I think she will be winning.

It is a 1000m race though and there is the potential for her to be spotting some of these horses up front a fair start. Delightful Cat is fit and in form and comes through a couple of handy races at her last two starts. She should jump on the bunny from gate three and be pretty hard to run down. She is a winner here and her 1000m record is quite good. Keen to have her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Gin Atomic having half now at the $4.80 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote later in the day! I will save with $30 the win on Delightful Cat!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Mumbles (No.12) & Suplex City (No.16)

Dangers

Caribbean Pearl (No.10) & Immaculate Secret (No.11)

This is a handy race to finish the day on over the 1200m. Mumbles looks to have come back from a spell in good order this time in. He was a cracking win at Stawell first up to break his maiden coming from off the speed and wide around the bend to round his rivals up and salute in good fashion. He then went to Moonee Valley and ran well in a strong race behind Jentico. He looks to get a nice setup here. He draws nicely in gate six to land just off the speed. I think the long Terang straight will certainly suit him better than Moonee Valley last start and happy to be with him.

Suplex City looks a horse with good scope. He has always been a horse that has shown a good deal of talent. He resumed off a long break for the new stable at The Bool last start with a pretty dominant win and I fancy there might be a bit more to come from him. He looks to have a bit of upside; I don’t mind him drawn out and happy to be with him second up.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Suplex City here and $30 the win on Mumbles in the last race!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

12:25pm

Suggested

Smart Coupe (No.5), Miss Wahoo (No.7) & Northern River (No.12)

Dangers

Chatuchak (No.4) & Favonski (No.6)

The main race meeting in Victoria this Saturday comes from Ballarat for their stand alone Saturday Cup meeting. Every year I say that I will have a Saturday off and give this meeting a miss, but here I am again and have found a few races to bet into. Six of the ten in total. The difficulty I have had with this meeting in previous years is trying to guess how the track will play. Last year the track was watered after some warm days through the week and then we got a downpour during the day which led to the track being very wet and horses off the fence being advantaged. Prior to that we have seen the track play very on speed advantaged. That is the conundrum again this year with a fair bit of rain around in the lead up to the meeting. There is a fair bit of rain coming on Thursday and a bit more on Friday so I would expect that we would get into the soft range and I think that would say the track play fairly even and again potentially see horses coming away from the fence a little bit. I would play close attention to the way the races are playing early on in the day though and don’t be scared to adjust bets through the day if the pattern is seriously pronounced.

I am kicking the day off nice and early in the first race of the day which is for the mares over the 1200m. It looks a competitive race with quite a few winning chances. Smart Coupe ended a little bit of a run of outs so to speak when breaking through at Kyneton last start and hopefully that is the catalyst for her to go right on with the job here. Everything panned out nicely for her there. She landed one out and one back stalking the speed and peeled to the outside in the straight and showed a nice turn of foot to let down and win well. She has been a bit of a frustrating filly. Personally going into that Kyneton race I was starting to worry if her best was behind her but going back through her runs she has probably been a victim of circumstances more than anything in that run of outs. She has just not had much luck either in running or with barrier draws or in terms of how races have been run. That was probably what appealed to me about her here in this race on Saturday is the fact that she maps to just get the gun run stalking the speed for an in form Stephanie Thornton. She should lob one out and one back behind the speed and from there she should be poised to produce that strong finish at the end of the race and hard to hold out so I will be backing her.

I would expect Miss Wahoo to improve here off the back of a flat second up run where she was heavily supported in Adelaide. This mare showed some good talent early in her career as a two year old and three year old. She resumed two starts back off an eight month break at Morphettville and ran really well when making up ground from the back behind Like To Think So in a fast run 1250m race. She then stepped up to the 1400m last start when second up and I just think she was a bit flat off that hard first up run over the shorter trip. She again encountered a fast run race but over the longer trip on this occasion wasn’t able to finish off. She comes back to the 1200m here which I think is a big plus and draws out to probably land three wide off the speed with a bit of cover. Providing you can make ground from off the speed early in the day she should be in the finish.

Northern River is the horse at odds I am going to save on. This mare ran well first up for the McLean stable at Kyneton on the same day Smart Coupe won. The race this mare comes out of was actually run in quicker time than Smart Coupe. I thought Northern River’s effort in that race was really good. She covered ground three wide with no cover back in the field and after looking like she was struggling round the turn, really picked up strongly late in the race to go down narrowly. I think she will be improved by that run and she draws to get a lovely smothering run just off the speed here. I think around that $15-20 mark with that run under her belt she might be capable of getting into the finish here and is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Smart Coupe here, $30 the win on Miss Wahoo and $10 the win on Northern River!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Absolute Flirt (No.5), Fact Or Fable (No.8) & Not A Royal Doubt (No.10)

Dangers

Ancestry (No.2) & Chavret (No.6)

I can honestly say that this is the first time I will be betting in the Magic Millions 2YO Clockwise Classic. It isn’t a race that has interested me in past years but I think we go into this year’s edition pretty well informed with the jump outs of all horses available quite easily. Throw in the fact that a lot of them have jumped out against each other and I actually found the form quite easy to line up. It is a wide open market too so if you find the winner you will be getting a pretty good price. Absolute Flirt from the Danny O’Brien stable has had the one jump out here at Ballarat going the clockwise way of going where she went really well in finishing off nicely alongside Chavret. She then backed that up with a really stylish trial win at Cranbourne a week and a half back and for mine she looks primed with those two hit outs under her belt to come here on debut and run really well. I like the fact that she sat off the speed in the jump out here and when asked for an effort quickened well and went through the line nicely. Then in the Cranbourne trial she cruised home after racing on the speed under little urging with plenty more to give. If she can improve again into race day I think she will be hard to beat. She draws gate seven which is potentially a little awkward as the bend is quite tight so you don’t want to be caught too wide but if Prebble can slot her in just off the speed I think she will be strong late over the 1000m and happy to be with her.

Fact Or Fable is another horse that I think will run well on debut. This filly from the Robbie Griffiths yard jumped out well at Cranbourne and then came here and won her jump out in nice fashion. She has shown good speed in both appearances and really quickened up nicely in the most recent jump out here when asked for an effort. It is starting to get to that stage of the season where the Robbie Griffiths stable kicks into gear too. She jumps form gate six and I think she will go pretty close to getting across most of the horses drawn inside her based on what I have seen at the jump outs and around the $8-9 mark she looks worth of a bet in my opinion.

The one that was hard to line up was obviously the Waterhouse runner in Not A Royal Doubt. This filly has trialled up in Sydney and hasn’t been seen against any of her rivals here in this race. This Waterhouse stable is just so good at producing well educated two year olds though that you have to respect this filly and it is pretty hard not to have something on her. She won her trial in Sydney pretty impressively showing good speed and defeating a subsequent two year old city winner up there. That all reads pretty well for a race of this nature. She draws out but she showed enough speed in that trial to suggest she might be able to come across and get outside the leader and if that is the case she looks a really professional type that will take some running down so happy to be with her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Not A Royal Doubt here, $25 the win on Absolute Flirt and $20 the win on Fact Or Fable!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

Irithea (No.1), Slow Burn (No.5) & Problem Solver (No.7)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.4) & Demerara (No.6)

Racing in Sydney again comes from Rosehill this Saturday. The rail moves back to the true position and it is another good meeting. The weather is dry and windy in the two days leading up to the meeting and with it already being rated as good I would expect the track to stay in that position and potentially be quite firm on Saturday. I am not really going to read too much into any pattern at Rosehill as for mine the track has played perfectly over the last three weeks irrespective of the rail position. I think we can bet there with confidence again on Saturday.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a competitive race. There are plenty of winning chances here. Sexy Eyes was the horse I really found it hard to get a line on in the race. She won brilliantly over 1400m two starts back running fast time before stepping up to the 1500m last start and scrambling over the line as a $1.30 favourite. It was still a good win with a good gap back to the third horse but the interesting thing here is that she drops all the way back to the 1200m. She also draws an inside gate for Tye Angland and I had her mapped a couple of pairs back on the fence here. She is going to need some luck from there. She has still come up a good price in the race though so that nearly tempted me to back her as I anticipated her coming up shorter but I think there might be a few better equipped over the 1200m to hopefully knock her off.

I am sticking with the fresh horses. The first of those is Slow Burn. This mare returns from a spell here after running well last campaign in strong races without ever really looking like winning. If you go through her form from that campaign though you will see that she never took on anything less than Group 3 level races and competed against horses such as Quilista, Ravi, Ghisoni and Sugar Bella all of whom would probably go around pretty short in a race of this nature. She resumes here in a race that certainly looks her level. She has had two trials to have her tuned right up for this and I expect her to come ready to play. The last trial in particular I thought she closed off really nicely alongside her stable mate in Seasons who won so impressively here last Saturday. She draws a nice middle gate here for Tim Clark with some good speed outside of her and I am hopeful that she can come across with that speed and land in a nice trailing position just off the speed. She has come up around the $8 mark in early markets and at those odds I am keen to be with her.

Problem Solver is another that mare that comes into the race fresh off a near two month freshen up. She resumed from a spell at Randwick at the end of September where she was most unlucky I thought behind Maximus in a strong Benchmark 88 against the males. I thought she just about should have won that day. Since that run she has been freshened as I have mentioned and her recent trial without the blinkers was quite good. She closed off nicely. She has been saved from a winnable race in Brisbane to run here and despite drawing out, I think if she can get into a trailing position with cover she will be really strong late. Happy to be with her.

I thought the horse over the odds in the race might be Irithea. This mare raced really well through the winter months and early spring. She strung together two wins over the 1400m in Benchmark company and then took on listed races where she chased home the likes of Shumookh and Savatiano. That reads well for a race of this nature. Her recent trial was strong and I like the way she responded when asked for an effort there. From gate five I think she should be able to take up the running for Jean Van Overmeire who is an excellent front running jockey and if she gets to the front I think she might prove hard to run down. Her 1200m record is very strong so happy to be with her at the double figure odds that are on offer in a good race.

Betting strategy

There looks to be a bit of value on offer here in this race! I will have $30 the win on both Slow Burn and Problem Solver and will save with $20 the win on Irithea with all of those around the $8-10 mark so hoping we can get a result with one of them!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

2:32pm

Suggested

Trusty Lad (No.3) & Heaza Good Boy (No.6)

Dangers

A Man To Match (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben again this Saturday after we had a bit of a frustrating run there last Saturday. Plumaro kicked the day off nicely but it went a bit south after that and was topped off by Magnufighter going down narrowly in the last race. I haven’t found a lot to jump out at me for this meeting. I actually had a couple of races picked out to bet into that I ended up scrapping as I was just spending too long on the form for those particular races and was seemingly no clearer. As a result I have ended up with just three races to bet into but am pretty keen on all three of those races. The weather has been pretty rough in Brisbane on Thursday but the forecast is for real warm and sunny days on Friday and Saturday. The track is currently in the soft range but I would expect it to dry out a fair bit leading into the meeting on Saturday. It is currently a Soft 7 though so I would expect we might struggle to get to good and might just stay in the soft range come Saturday. The track played well last Saturday with winners coming from up on speed and back in the field. The rail moves out six and a half metres on Saturday which may see it play a little bit more on speed. Let’s see how it plays out.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 1640m. The market has really narrowed this down to a race in two. A Man To Match and Trusty Lad have both come up pretty short in the market and every other runner is pretty much close to double figure odds. It is hard to dispute the fact that A Man To Match was a pretty good thing licked at the Sunshine Coast last start. I have genuine sympathy for anyone that was on him. He just got into a real awkward spot coming round the home turn and into the straight. He savaged the line late but was giving away too big a start and left his run far too late. Dale Smith goes on here and he shouldn’t have any traffic problems given he has drawn the second outside gate. I am still not going to back him despite all that. He is a horse that has been up for a little while and I feel there might be more improvement in his main rival in the betting in Trusty Lad.

This galloper returned from a spell with a super run at Doomben last start behind Light Up The Room. This bloke is just an out and out miler and beyond I feel. He ended his two year old campaign with a win here over this trip in a small field back in August. He won at good odds that day but was well supported in the market. He was spelled post that run and resumed three weeks ago behind Light Up The Room in a race where the form has already been franked with the fourth horse Plumaro winning impressively here last Saturday. Trusty Lad didn’t have the best of luck in that race. He beat Plumaro home but was held up halfway down the straight as he was starting his run. He savaged the line late but just failed to reel in the leaders. He goes quickly from the 1350m to the mile here and I would normally think that could be an issue but not in his case as he looks as if he will relish it. He again draws out so he will have to settle back in the field but providing the track is playing fair I am going to back him in to get over the top of them. I think he is a pretty handy horse despite the fact he went around $101 last start. We certainly won’t be getting those odds on Saturday but around the $3+ mark I was happy to have something on him to roll A Man To Match.

The roughie in the race I am going to save on is Heza Good Boy. This is more a bet based on the map. There just doesn’t look to be much speed in the race and this horse has improved at every start so far in his debut campaign. He was well beaten on debut before improving at his second start and then getting up on speed and breaking through at the Gold Coast two weeks ago. He draws a good gate for Jimmy Byrne to land on the speed again and if he gets an easy time of it in front he might prove hard to run down. Around the $15-20 mark I was happy to have something on him but I am pretty keen if Trusty Lad can be within striking distance he will be hard to hold out.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen on Trusty Lad here. I am not sure he will get shorter than the $3.50 mark he is at the moment given the SP of his previous start! I will have $60 the win on him and save with $15 the win on Heza Good Boy having half now at the $17 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day thinking he may shorten based on the map!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Miss Carboni (No.3) & Valse (No.8)

Dangers

Peppering (No.4) & Sweet Pickings (No.7)

Racing on a Friday afternoon comes from the great Royal Terang and I love a good meeting in this part of the world. It is a pretty quiet Friday in my office so I thought we tuck in with a Friday afternoon punt and I have whipped up a quick preview with a few races I am keen to bet into. Terang looks to have missed most of the rain that has hit other parts of Victoria and as such the track has come up rated as good with the rail in the true position.

I am kicking the day off in the first race which looks a competitive maiden despite the small field. I tweeted out earlier in the week that Valse would be a horse to watch in this maiden as the form lines around her last start run look really good. She chased home Lady Vega and My Pendant from the back of the field there and that form has held up really well with My Pendant bolting in at Sandown on Wednesday. Valse was only first up in that race and made good ground from the back of the field. I fancy if you can make ground from the back here that the big Ternag straight should suit her and happy to be in her corner.

Miss Carboni showed a bit in a Burrumbeet jump out back in October and makes her debut for the Archie Alexander stable here. She jumped on the bunny there and was pretty much throttled down on the line and still won the jump out comfortably. I would expect her to jump and lead from gate one and if she can run up to the jump out should prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

This is a handy maiden to kick the day off! I will have $40 the win on both Miss Carboni and Valse!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:00pm

Suggested

Crimson Tears (No.5) & Miss Street (No.8)

Dangers

Bel Robbie (No.3) & Lovin Th’castle (No.6)

This looks a pretty deep maiden over the 1200m. I was pretty keen on Miss Street here to break her maiden. This mare has raced really well in her four career starts to date. She was good in her debut campaign last year running two placings from three starts before going out for a long break. She resumed from effectively twelve months off the scene two weeks ago at Geelong. She ran really well there too I thought. She was well backed off the back of a solid trial and just didn’t have the luck when she needed it. She box seated behind the leader and just got held up for a run prior to the home turn. That proved costly as the leaders got away from her. She got clear and hit the line well but couldn’t reel in the two horses ahead of her. There was a good gap to the fourth horse though which is often a good sign. She draws well in gate two here for an in form Jamie Mott and I would expect her to be pretty hard to hold out. Keen to be with her.

I am saving on Crimson Tears from the Weir yard who was well in the market in her two starts in her first campaign. She didn’t do a lot in those runs but had obviously shown a bit at home given her SP profile. Her recent jump out at Ballarat looked quite stylish for mine. She has Yendall on from gate three and happy to have her in my corner as a saving bet behind Miss Street. I am wary of the first up mare from the Gelagotis yard in Lovin Th’castle who has been well tried in betting this morning but I couldn’t really take much from her trial so risking her but obviously respect the stable and the support.

Betting strategy

Miss Street looks just about the best of the day for mine! I will have $75 the win on her and cover the bet by saving with $15 the win on Crimson Tears hoping we get $6+!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:10pm

Suggested

Bomb Blast (No.1), Chortomic (No.2), Talk’emaround (No.9) & Countess De Galvez (No.14)

Dangers

Savvy Boy (No.7) & Fatuma (No.12)

This is a deep maiden here with plenty of winning chances. I am happy to play pretty wide. Talk’emaround looks to have his hoof on the till. His two runs back from a spell this time in have been good. He ran well first up behind Mumbles in a maiden at Stawell before just being touched off at Ararat last start in what looked a handy maiden after racing on speed. He should be primed here third up from a spell and I would expect him to roll across from the wide draw and take up a position on speed for Jarrod Fry. The 1400m is probably the slight question mark but if he handles that I expect him to be pretty hard to hold out and happy to be with him.

Bomb Blast comes through that same maiden having run third in the race and I think he can be a big improver here second up at double figure odds. He got back out of his ground in that maiden and made up really good ground late. He is one that will certainly be suited by the step up to 1400m and I am more than happy to have something on him at the price. I think he is over the odds.

I don’t want to be losing on the race if the Weir runner in Countess De Galvez can salute. She ran well on debut behind Mumbles in the same race that Talk’emaround was in and beat that horse home running second. She then got back out of her ground in a strong maiden at Ballarat last start and hit the line well. She was jumping from 1100m to 1400m there so she should be well suited here with that run over this trip under her belt and at her third start I would expect her to improve again and be in the finish.

Chortomic is the other horse at odds I want to be on. This galloper showed good speed on debut in a handy maiden at Hamilton before getting back out of his ground at The Bool last start. I thought he worked through the line quite nicely in that race from the back of the field on a day where it wasn’t easy to make ground. He draws a nice middle gate here and while I was hoping after jotting him down in that maiden last start that he would find an easier maiden I am happy to be with him here at the good odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Talk’emaround here! I will also have $25 the win on Countess De Galvez and $15 the win on Bomb Blast and Chortomic with the latter being well backed this morning!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 6

3:20pm

Suggested

Lonruse (No.4), Bernie’s Regret (No.7), Careering Away (No.9) & Lunch At Rulers (No.11)

Dangers

Ruby Sea (No.2) & Allspice (No.6)

This is another deep race over the 1400m with quite a few winning chances. I was pretty keen on Bernie’s Regret when first up from a spell at The Bool two starts ago and he disappointed. He bounced back second up though and ran really well behind Von Mystic and I am happy to give him another shot here. He draws to get a good run on the speed for Jarrod Fry from gate three and if he can hold a position a bit closer to the lead today then I am hopeful that he might be able to get over the top of them. Happy to be with him.

Careering Away gets up to the 1400m here and I think that could be a key factor. He has been hitting the line well over the shorter trips and I think at his fourth run back from a spell he should be primed to run well up in trip. He draws a middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Jamie Mott and happy to be with him.

I certainly want to have something on Lonruse at double figure odds. This galloper from the Paul Presuker yard won his only start here in a maiden back on New Years Day. His runs this campaign have been mixed. He kicked off over 1000m at Warracknabeal and worked to the line fairly before taking on a strong BM64 at Ballarat and being well beaten. He was then freshened up before leading the field up over 1400m at Horsham last start and compounding late. I am hoping he has taken good benefit from that even though he is a month between runs again. He just looked short of a run that day and from gate one here I am hoping he can roll forward on speed and be hard to run down. Happy to be with him at double figure odds.

I am also going to have something on Lunch At Rulers at big odds. This galloper won well at Mortlake in a handy maiden last start when I was on him and I was surprised he come up $30+ in the early markets here so at that price I thought he was worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bernie’s Regret here, $25 the win on Careering Away! I will have $15 the win on Lonruse locking in the $15 about him and $10 the win on Lunch At Rulers having half now at the $41 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:30pm

Suggested

Delightful Cat (No.6) & Gin Atomic (No.12)

Dangers

Juanito Uvez (No.3) & Grogans Anvil (No.7)

I am pretty keen on Gin Atomic here as it seems most punters are. She has been well supported right through the morning and I think she looks to be one of the better bets of the day. She is a mare that has always shown good talent and has often started pretty short in the market. She has been beaten favourite a few times in her career. I think she should run well here though. She was a big run at Penola first up when she was a bit soft in the market. She got a long way back over the 1100m and hit the line strongly from the back. She looked like she was going to finish well back but actually ended up getting pretty close at the finish. She draws wide here for Jordan Childs so I anticipate she will go back again but think she strikes a pretty winnable race. If she has come on from the first up run and gets a bit of luck from the draw I think she will be winning.

It is a 1000m race though and there is the potential for her to be spotting some of these horses up front a fair start. Delightful Cat is fit and in form and comes through a couple of handy races at her last two starts. She should jump on the bunny from gate three and be pretty hard to run down. She is a winner here and her 1000m record is quite good. Keen to have her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Gin Atomic having half now at the $4.80 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote later in the day! I will save with $30 the win on Delightful Cat!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Mumbles (No.12) & Suplex City (No.16)

Dangers

Caribbean Pearl (No.10) & Immaculate Secret (No.11)

This is a handy race to finish the day on over the 1200m. Mumbles looks to have come back from a spell in good order this time in. He was a cracking win at Stawell first up to break his maiden coming from off the speed and wide around the bend to round his rivals up and salute in good fashion. He then went to Moonee Valley and ran well in a strong race behind Jentico. He looks to get a nice setup here. He draws nicely in gate six to land just off the speed. I think the long Terang straight will certainly suit him better than Moonee Valley last start and happy to be with him.

Suplex City looks a horse with good scope. He has always been a horse that has shown a good deal of talent. He resumed off a long break for the new stable at The Bool last start with a pretty dominant win and I fancy there might be a bit more to come from him. He looks to have a bit of upside; I don’t mind him drawn out and happy to be with him second up.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Suplex City here and $30 the win on Mumbles in the last race!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

12:25pm

Suggested

Smart Coupe (No.5), Miss Wahoo (No.7) & Northern River (No.12)

Dangers

Chatuchak (No.4) & Favonski (No.6)

The main race meeting in Victoria this Saturday comes from Ballarat for their stand alone Saturday Cup meeting. Every year I say that I will have a Saturday off and give this meeting a miss, but here I am again and have found a few races to bet into. Six of the ten in total. The difficulty I have had with this meeting in previous years is trying to guess how the track will play. Last year the track was watered after some warm days through the week and then we got a downpour during the day which led to the track being very wet and horses off the fence being advantaged. Prior to that we have seen the track play very on speed advantaged. That is the conundrum again this year with a fair bit of rain around in the lead up to the meeting. There is a fair bit of rain coming on Thursday and a bit more on Friday so I would expect that we would get into the soft range and I think that would say the track play fairly even and again potentially see horses coming away from the fence a little bit. I would play close attention to the way the races are playing early on in the day though and don’t be scared to adjust bets through the day if the pattern is seriously pronounced.

I am kicking the day off nice and early in the first race of the day which is for the mares over the 1200m. It looks a competitive race with quite a few winning chances. Smart Coupe ended a little bit of a run of outs so to speak when breaking through at Kyneton last start and hopefully that is the catalyst for her to go right on with the job here. Everything panned out nicely for her there. She landed one out and one back stalking the speed and peeled to the outside in the straight and showed a nice turn of foot to let down and win well. She has been a bit of a frustrating filly. Personally going into that Kyneton race I was starting to worry if her best was behind her but going back through her runs she has probably been a victim of circumstances more than anything in that run of outs. She has just not had much luck either in running or with barrier draws or in terms of how races have been run. That was probably what appealed to me about her here in this race on Saturday is the fact that she maps to just get the gun run stalking the speed for an in form Stephanie Thornton. She should lob one out and one back behind the speed and from there she should be poised to produce that strong finish at the end of the race and hard to hold out so I will be backing her.

I would expect Miss Wahoo to improve here off the back of a flat second up run where she was heavily supported in Adelaide. This mare showed some good talent early in her career as a two year old and three year old. She resumed two starts back off an eight month break at Morphettville and ran really well when making up ground from the back behind Like To Think So in a fast run 1250m race. She then stepped up to the 1400m last start when second up and I just think she was a bit flat off that hard first up run over the shorter trip. She again encountered a fast run race but over the longer trip on this occasion wasn’t able to finish off. She comes back to the 1200m here which I think is a big plus and draws out to probably land three wide off the speed with a bit of cover. Providing you can make ground from off the speed early in the day she should be in the finish.

Northern River is the horse at odds I am going to save on. This mare ran well first up for the McLean stable at Kyneton on the same day Smart Coupe won. The race this mare comes out of was actually run in quicker time than Smart Coupe. I thought Northern River’s effort in that race was really good. She covered ground three wide with no cover back in the field and after looking like she was struggling round the turn, really picked up strongly late in the race to go down narrowly. I think she will be improved by that run and she draws to get a lovely smothering run just off the speed here. I think around that $15-20 mark with that run under her belt she might be capable of getting into the finish here and is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Smart Coupe here, $30 the win on Miss Wahoo and $10 the win on Northern River!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Absolute Flirt (No.5), Fact Or Fable (No.8) & Not A Royal Doubt (No.10)

Dangers

Ancestry (No.2) & Chavret (No.6)

I can honestly say that this is the first time I will be betting in the Magic Millions 2YO Clockwise Classic. It isn’t a race that has interested me in past years but I think we go into this year’s edition pretty well informed with the jump outs of all horses available quite easily. Throw in the fact that a lot of them have jumped out against each other and I actually found the form quite easy to line up. It is a wide open market too so if you find the winner you will be getting a pretty good price. Absolute Flirt from the Danny O’Brien stable has had the one jump out here at Ballarat going the clockwise way of going where she went really well in finishing off nicely alongside Chavret. She then backed that up with a really stylish trial win at Cranbourne a week and a half back and for mine she looks primed with those two hit outs under her belt to come here on debut and run really well. I like the fact that she sat off the speed in the jump out here and when asked for an effort quickened well and went through the line nicely. Then in the Cranbourne trial she cruised home after racing on the speed under little urging with plenty more to give. If she can improve again into race day I think she will be hard to beat. She draws gate seven which is potentially a little awkward as the bend is quite tight so you don’t want to be caught too wide but if Prebble can slot her in just off the speed I think she will be strong late over the 1000m and happy to be with her.

Fact Or Fable is another horse that I think will run well on debut. This filly from the Robbie Griffiths yard jumped out well at Cranbourne and then came here and won her jump out in nice fashion. She has shown good speed in both appearances and really quickened up nicely in the most recent jump out here when asked for an effort. It is starting to get to that stage of the season where the Robbie Griffiths stable kicks into gear too. She jumps form gate six and I think she will go pretty close to getting across most of the horses drawn inside her based on what I have seen at the jump outs and around the $8-9 mark she looks worth of a bet in my opinion.

The one that was hard to line up was obviously the Waterhouse runner in Not A Royal Doubt. This filly has trialled up in Sydney and hasn’t been seen against any of her rivals here in this race. This Waterhouse stable is just so good at producing well educated two year olds though that you have to respect this filly and it is pretty hard not to have something on her. She won her trial in Sydney pretty impressively showing good speed and defeating a subsequent two year old city winner up there. That all reads pretty well for a race of this nature. She draws out but she showed enough speed in that trial to suggest she might be able to come across and get outside the leader and if that is the case she looks a really professional type that will take some running down so happy to be with her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Not A Royal Doubt here, $25 the win on Absolute Flirt and $20 the win on Fact Or Fable!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

Irithea (No.1), Slow Burn (No.5) & Problem Solver (No.7)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.4) & Demerara (No.6)

Racing in Sydney again comes from Rosehill this Saturday. The rail moves back to the true position and it is another good meeting. The weather is dry and windy in the two days leading up to the meeting and with it already being rated as good I would expect the track to stay in that position and potentially be quite firm on Saturday. I am not really going to read too much into any pattern at Rosehill as for mine the track has played perfectly over the last three weeks irrespective of the rail position. I think we can bet there with confidence again on Saturday.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a competitive race. There are plenty of winning chances here. Sexy Eyes was the horse I really found it hard to get a line on in the race. She won brilliantly over 1400m two starts back running fast time before stepping up to the 1500m last start and scrambling over the line as a $1.30 favourite. It was still a good win with a good gap back to the third horse but the interesting thing here is that she drops all the way back to the 1200m. She also draws an inside gate for Tye Angland and I had her mapped a couple of pairs back on the fence here. She is going to need some luck from there. She has still come up a good price in the race though so that nearly tempted me to back her as I anticipated her coming up shorter but I think there might be a few better equipped over the 1200m to hopefully knock her off.

I am sticking with the fresh horses. The first of those is Slow Burn. This mare returns from a spell here after running well last campaign in strong races without ever really looking like winning. If you go through her form from that campaign though you will see that she never took on anything less than Group 3 level races and competed against horses such as Quilista, Ravi, Ghisoni and Sugar Bella all of whom would probably go around pretty short in a race of this nature. She resumes here in a race that certainly looks her level. She has had two trials to have her tuned right up for this and I expect her to come ready to play. The last trial in particular I thought she closed off really nicely alongside her stable mate in Seasons who won so impressively here last Saturday. She draws a nice middle gate here for Tim Clark with some good speed outside of her and I am hopeful that she can come across with that speed and land in a nice trailing position just off the speed. She has come up around the $8 mark in early markets and at those odds I am keen to be with her.

Problem Solver is another that mare that comes into the race fresh off a near two month freshen up. She resumed from a spell at Randwick at the end of September where she was most unlucky I thought behind Maximus in a strong Benchmark 88 against the males. I thought she just about should have won that day. Since that run she has been freshened as I have mentioned and her recent trial without the blinkers was quite good. She closed off nicely. She has been saved from a winnable race in Brisbane to run here and despite drawing out, I think if she can get into a trailing position with cover she will be really strong late. Happy to be with her.

I thought the horse over the odds in the race might be Irithea. This mare raced really well through the winter months and early spring. She strung together two wins over the 1400m in Benchmark company and then took on listed races where she chased home the likes of Shumookh and Savatiano. That reads well for a race of this nature. Her recent trial was strong and I like the way she responded when asked for an effort there. From gate five I think she should be able to take up the running for Jean Van Overmeire who is an excellent front running jockey and if she gets to the front I think she might prove hard to run down. Her 1200m record is very strong so happy to be with her at the double figure odds that are on offer in a good race.

Betting strategy

There looks to be a bit of value on offer here in this race! I will have $30 the win on both Slow Burn and Problem Solver and will save with $20 the win on Irithea with all of those around the $8-10 mark so hoping we can get a result with one of them!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

2:32pm

Suggested

Trusty Lad (No.3) & Heaza Good Boy (No.6)

Dangers

A Man To Match (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben again this Saturday after we had a bit of a frustrating run there last Saturday. Plumaro kicked the day off nicely but it went a bit south after that and was topped off by Magnufighter going down narrowly in the last race. I haven’t found a lot to jump out at me for this meeting. I actually had a couple of races picked out to bet into that I ended up scrapping as I was just spending too long on the form for those particular races and was seemingly no clearer. As a result I have ended up with just three races to bet into but am pretty keen on all three of those races. The weather has been pretty rough in Brisbane on Thursday but the forecast is for real warm and sunny days on Friday and Saturday. The track is currently in the soft range but I would expect it to dry out a fair bit leading into the meeting on Saturday. It is currently a Soft 7 though so I would expect we might struggle to get to good and might just stay in the soft range come Saturday. The track played well last Saturday with winners coming from up on speed and back in the field. The rail moves out six and a half metres on Saturday which may see it play a little bit more on speed. Let’s see how it plays out.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 1640m. The market has really narrowed this down to a race in two. A Man To Match and Trusty Lad have both come up pretty short in the market and every other runner is pretty much close to double figure odds. It is hard to dispute the fact that A Man To Match was a pretty good thing licked at the Sunshine Coast last start. I have genuine sympathy for anyone that was on him. He just got into a real awkward spot coming round the home turn and into the straight. He savaged the line late but was giving away too big a start and left his run far too late. Dale Smith goes on here and he shouldn’t have any traffic problems given he has drawn the second outside gate. I am still not going to back him despite all that. He is a horse that has been up for a little while and I feel there might be more improvement in his main rival in the betting in Trusty Lad.

This galloper returned from a spell with a super run at Doomben last start behind Light Up The Room. This bloke is just an out and out miler and beyond I feel. He ended his two year old campaign with a win here over this trip in a small field back in August. He won at good odds that day but was well supported in the market. He was spelled post that run and resumed three weeks ago behind Light Up The Room in a race where the form has already been franked with the fourth horse Plumaro winning impressively here last Saturday. Trusty Lad didn’t have the best of luck in that race. He beat Plumaro home but was held up halfway down the straight as he was starting his run. He savaged the line late but just failed to reel in the leaders. He goes quickly from the 1350m to the mile here and I would normally think that could be an issue but not in his case as he looks as if he will relish it. He again draws out so he will have to settle back in the field but providing the track is playing fair I am going to back him in to get over the top of them. I think he is a pretty handy horse despite the fact he went around $101 last start. We certainly won’t be getting those odds on Saturday but around the $3+ mark I was happy to have something on him to roll A Man To Match.

The roughie in the race I am going to save on is Heza Good Boy. This is more a bet based on the map. There just doesn’t look to be much speed in the race and this horse has improved at every start so far in his debut campaign. He was well beaten on debut before improving at his second start and then getting up on speed and breaking through at the Gold Coast two weeks ago. He draws a good gate for Jimmy Byrne to land on the speed again and if he gets an easy time of it in front he might prove hard to run down. Around the $15-20 mark I was happy to have something on him but I am pretty keen if Trusty Lad can be within striking distance he will be hard to hold out.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen on Trusty Lad here. I am not sure he will get shorter than the $3.50 mark he is at the moment given the SP of his previous start! I will have $60 the win on him and save with $15 the win on Heza Good Boy having half now at the $17 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day thinking he may shorten based on the map!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Miss Carboni (No.3) & Valse (No.8)

Dangers

Peppering (No.4) & Sweet Pickings (No.7)

Racing on a Friday afternoon comes from the great Royal Terang and I love a good meeting in this part of the world. It is a pretty quiet Friday in my office so I thought we tuck in with a Friday afternoon punt and I have whipped up a quick preview with a few races I am keen to bet into. Terang looks to have missed most of the rain that has hit other parts of Victoria and as such the track has come up rated as good with the rail in the true position.

I am kicking the day off in the first race which looks a competitive maiden despite the small field. I tweeted out earlier in the week that Valse would be a horse to watch in this maiden as the form lines around her last start run look really good. She chased home Lady Vega and My Pendant from the back of the field there and that form has held up really well with My Pendant bolting in at Sandown on Wednesday. Valse was only first up in that race and made good ground from the back of the field. I fancy if you can make ground from the back here that the big Ternag straight should suit her and happy to be in her corner.

Miss Carboni showed a bit in a Burrumbeet jump out back in October and makes her debut for the Archie Alexander stable here. She jumped on the bunny there and was pretty much throttled down on the line and still won the jump out comfortably. I would expect her to jump and lead from gate one and if she can run up to the jump out should prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

This is a handy maiden to kick the day off! I will have $40 the win on both Miss Carboni and Valse!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:00pm

Suggested

Crimson Tears (No.5) & Miss Street (No.8)

Dangers

Bel Robbie (No.3) & Lovin Th’castle (No.6)

This looks a pretty deep maiden over the 1200m. I was pretty keen on Miss Street here to break her maiden. This mare has raced really well in her four career starts to date. She was good in her debut campaign last year running two placings from three starts before going out for a long break. She resumed from effectively twelve months off the scene two weeks ago at Geelong. She ran really well there too I thought. She was well backed off the back of a solid trial and just didn’t have the luck when she needed it. She box seated behind the leader and just got held up for a run prior to the home turn. That proved costly as the leaders got away from her. She got clear and hit the line well but couldn’t reel in the two horses ahead of her. There was a good gap to the fourth horse though which is often a good sign. She draws well in gate two here for an in form Jamie Mott and I would expect her to be pretty hard to hold out. Keen to be with her.

I am saving on Crimson Tears from the Weir yard who was well in the market in her two starts in her first campaign. She didn’t do a lot in those runs but had obviously shown a bit at home given her SP profile. Her recent jump out at Ballarat looked quite stylish for mine. She has Yendall on from gate three and happy to have her in my corner as a saving bet behind Miss Street. I am wary of the first up mare from the Gelagotis yard in Lovin Th’castle who has been well tried in betting this morning but I couldn’t really take much from her trial so risking her but obviously respect the stable and the support.

Betting strategy

Miss Street looks just about the best of the day for mine! I will have $75 the win on her and cover the bet by saving with $15 the win on Crimson Tears hoping we get $6+!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:10pm

Suggested

Bomb Blast (No.1), Chortomic (No.2), Talk’emaround (No.9) & Countess De Galvez (No.14)

Dangers

Savvy Boy (No.7) & Fatuma (No.12)

This is a deep maiden here with plenty of winning chances. I am happy to play pretty wide. Talk’emaround looks to have his hoof on the till. His two runs back from a spell this time in have been good. He ran well first up behind Mumbles in a maiden at Stawell before just being touched off at Ararat last start in what looked a handy maiden after racing on speed. He should be primed here third up from a spell and I would expect him to roll across from the wide draw and take up a position on speed for Jarrod Fry. The 1400m is probably the slight question mark but if he handles that I expect him to be pretty hard to hold out and happy to be with him.

Bomb Blast comes through that same maiden having run third in the race and I think he can be a big improver here second up at double figure odds. He got back out of his ground in that maiden and made up really good ground late. He is one that will certainly be suited by the step up to 1400m and I am more than happy to have something on him at the price. I think he is over the odds.

I don’t want to be losing on the race if the Weir runner in Countess De Galvez can salute. She ran well on debut behind Mumbles in the same race that Talk’emaround was in and beat that horse home running second. She then got back out of her ground in a strong maiden at Ballarat last start and hit the line well. She was jumping from 1100m to 1400m there so she should be well suited here with that run over this trip under her belt and at her third start I would expect her to improve again and be in the finish.

Chortomic is the other horse at odds I want to be on. This galloper showed good speed on debut in a handy maiden at Hamilton before getting back out of his ground at The Bool last start. I thought he worked through the line quite nicely in that race from the back of the field on a day where it wasn’t easy to make ground. He draws a nice middle gate here and while I was hoping after jotting him down in that maiden last start that he would find an easier maiden I am happy to be with him here at the good odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Talk’emaround here! I will also have $25 the win on Countess De Galvez and $15 the win on Bomb Blast and Chortomic with the latter being well backed this morning!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 6

3:20pm

Suggested

Lonruse (No.4), Bernie’s Regret (No.7), Careering Away (No.9) & Lunch At Rulers (No.11)

Dangers

Ruby Sea (No.2) & Allspice (No.6)

This is another deep race over the 1400m with quite a few winning chances. I was pretty keen on Bernie’s Regret when first up from a spell at The Bool two starts ago and he disappointed. He bounced back second up though and ran really well behind Von Mystic and I am happy to give him another shot here. He draws to get a good run on the speed for Jarrod Fry from gate three and if he can hold a position a bit closer to the lead today then I am hopeful that he might be able to get over the top of them. Happy to be with him.

Careering Away gets up to the 1400m here and I think that could be a key factor. He has been hitting the line well over the shorter trips and I think at his fourth run back from a spell he should be primed to run well up in trip. He draws a middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Jamie Mott and happy to be with him.

I certainly want to have something on Lonruse at double figure odds. This galloper from the Paul Presuker yard won his only start here in a maiden back on New Years Day. His runs this campaign have been mixed. He kicked off over 1000m at Warracknabeal and worked to the line fairly before taking on a strong BM64 at Ballarat and being well beaten. He was then freshened up before leading the field up over 1400m at Horsham last start and compounding late. I am hoping he has taken good benefit from that even though he is a month between runs again. He just looked short of a run that day and from gate one here I am hoping he can roll forward on speed and be hard to run down. Happy to be with him at double figure odds.

I am also going to have something on Lunch At Rulers at big odds. This galloper won well at Mortlake in a handy maiden last start when I was on him and I was surprised he come up $30+ in the early markets here so at that price I thought he was worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bernie’s Regret here, $25 the win on Careering Away! I will have $15 the win on Lonruse locking in the $15 about him and $10 the win on Lunch At Rulers having half now at the $41 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:30pm

Suggested

Delightful Cat (No.6) & Gin Atomic (No.12)

Dangers

Juanito Uvez (No.3) & Grogans Anvil (No.7)

I am pretty keen on Gin Atomic here as it seems most punters are. She has been well supported right through the morning and I think she looks to be one of the better bets of the day. She is a mare that has always shown good talent and has often started pretty short in the market. She has been beaten favourite a few times in her career. I think she should run well here though. She was a big run at Penola first up when she was a bit soft in the market. She got a long way back over the 1100m and hit the line strongly from the back. She looked like she was going to finish well back but actually ended up getting pretty close at the finish. She draws wide here for Jordan Childs so I anticipate she will go back again but think she strikes a pretty winnable race. If she has come on from the first up run and gets a bit of luck from the draw I think she will be winning.

It is a 1000m race though and there is the potential for her to be spotting some of these horses up front a fair start. Delightful Cat is fit and in form and comes through a couple of handy races at her last two starts. She should jump on the bunny from gate three and be pretty hard to run down. She is a winner here and her 1000m record is quite good. Keen to have her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Gin Atomic having half now at the $4.80 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote later in the day! I will save with $30 the win on Delightful Cat!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Mumbles (No.12) & Suplex City (No.16)

Dangers

Caribbean Pearl (No.10) & Immaculate Secret (No.11)

This is a handy race to finish the day on over the 1200m. Mumbles looks to have come back from a spell in good order this time in. He was a cracking win at Stawell first up to break his maiden coming from off the speed and wide around the bend to round his rivals up and salute in good fashion. He then went to Moonee Valley and ran well in a strong race behind Jentico. He looks to get a nice setup here. He draws nicely in gate six to land just off the speed. I think the long Terang straight will certainly suit him better than Moonee Valley last start and happy to be with him.

Suplex City looks a horse with good scope. He has always been a horse that has shown a good deal of talent. He resumed off a long break for the new stable at The Bool last start with a pretty dominant win and I fancy there might be a bit more to come from him. He looks to have a bit of upside; I don’t mind him drawn out and happy to be with him second up.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Suplex City here and $30 the win on Mumbles in the last race!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

12:25pm

Suggested

Smart Coupe (No.5), Miss Wahoo (No.7) & Northern River (No.12)

Dangers

Chatuchak (No.4) & Favonski (No.6)

The main race meeting in Victoria this Saturday comes from Ballarat for their stand alone Saturday Cup meeting. Every year I say that I will have a Saturday off and give this meeting a miss, but here I am again and have found a few races to bet into. Six of the ten in total. The difficulty I have had with this meeting in previous years is trying to guess how the track will play. Last year the track was watered after some warm days through the week and then we got a downpour during the day which led to the track being very wet and horses off the fence being advantaged. Prior to that we have seen the track play very on speed advantaged. That is the conundrum again this year with a fair bit of rain around in the lead up to the meeting. There is a fair bit of rain coming on Thursday and a bit more on Friday so I would expect that we would get into the soft range and I think that would say the track play fairly even and again potentially see horses coming away from the fence a little bit. I would play close attention to the way the races are playing early on in the day though and don’t be scared to adjust bets through the day if the pattern is seriously pronounced.

I am kicking the day off nice and early in the first race of the day which is for the mares over the 1200m. It looks a competitive race with quite a few winning chances. Smart Coupe ended a little bit of a run of outs so to speak when breaking through at Kyneton last start and hopefully that is the catalyst for her to go right on with the job here. Everything panned out nicely for her there. She landed one out and one back stalking the speed and peeled to the outside in the straight and showed a nice turn of foot to let down and win well. She has been a bit of a frustrating filly. Personally going into that Kyneton race I was starting to worry if her best was behind her but going back through her runs she has probably been a victim of circumstances more than anything in that run of outs. She has just not had much luck either in running or with barrier draws or in terms of how races have been run. That was probably what appealed to me about her here in this race on Saturday is the fact that she maps to just get the gun run stalking the speed for an in form Stephanie Thornton. She should lob one out and one back behind the speed and from there she should be poised to produce that strong finish at the end of the race and hard to hold out so I will be backing her.

I would expect Miss Wahoo to improve here off the back of a flat second up run where she was heavily supported in Adelaide. This mare showed some good talent early in her career as a two year old and three year old. She resumed two starts back off an eight month break at Morphettville and ran really well when making up ground from the back behind Like To Think So in a fast run 1250m race. She then stepped up to the 1400m last start when second up and I just think she was a bit flat off that hard first up run over the shorter trip. She again encountered a fast run race but over the longer trip on this occasion wasn’t able to finish off. She comes back to the 1200m here which I think is a big plus and draws out to probably land three wide off the speed with a bit of cover. Providing you can make ground from off the speed early in the day she should be in the finish.

Northern River is the horse at odds I am going to save on. This mare ran well first up for the McLean stable at Kyneton on the same day Smart Coupe won. The race this mare comes out of was actually run in quicker time than Smart Coupe. I thought Northern River’s effort in that race was really good. She covered ground three wide with no cover back in the field and after looking like she was struggling round the turn, really picked up strongly late in the race to go down narrowly. I think she will be improved by that run and she draws to get a lovely smothering run just off the speed here. I think around that $15-20 mark with that run under her belt she might be capable of getting into the finish here and is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Smart Coupe here, $30 the win on Miss Wahoo and $10 the win on Northern River!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Absolute Flirt (No.5), Fact Or Fable (No.8) & Not A Royal Doubt (No.10)

Dangers

Ancestry (No.2) & Chavret (No.6)

I can honestly say that this is the first time I will be betting in the Magic Millions 2YO Clockwise Classic. It isn’t a race that has interested me in past years but I think we go into this year’s edition pretty well informed with the jump outs of all horses available quite easily. Throw in the fact that a lot of them have jumped out against each other and I actually found the form quite easy to line up. It is a wide open market too so if you find the winner you will be getting a pretty good price. Absolute Flirt from the Danny O’Brien stable has had the one jump out here at Ballarat going the clockwise way of going where she went really well in finishing off nicely alongside Chavret. She then backed that up with a really stylish trial win at Cranbourne a week and a half back and for mine she looks primed with those two hit outs under her belt to come here on debut and run really well. I like the fact that she sat off the speed in the jump out here and when asked for an effort quickened well and went through the line nicely. Then in the Cranbourne trial she cruised home after racing on the speed under little urging with plenty more to give. If she can improve again into race day I think she will be hard to beat. She draws gate seven which is potentially a little awkward as the bend is quite tight so you don’t want to be caught too wide but if Prebble can slot her in just off the speed I think she will be strong late over the 1000m and happy to be with her.

Fact Or Fable is another horse that I think will run well on debut. This filly from the Robbie Griffiths yard jumped out well at Cranbourne and then came here and won her jump out in nice fashion. She has shown good speed in both appearances and really quickened up nicely in the most recent jump out here when asked for an effort. It is starting to get to that stage of the season where the Robbie Griffiths stable kicks into gear too. She jumps form gate six and I think she will go pretty close to getting across most of the horses drawn inside her based on what I have seen at the jump outs and around the $8-9 mark she looks worth of a bet in my opinion.

The one that was hard to line up was obviously the Waterhouse runner in Not A Royal Doubt. This filly has trialled up in Sydney and hasn’t been seen against any of her rivals here in this race. This Waterhouse stable is just so good at producing well educated two year olds though that you have to respect this filly and it is pretty hard not to have something on her. She won her trial in Sydney pretty impressively showing good speed and defeating a subsequent two year old city winner up there. That all reads pretty well for a race of this nature. She draws out but she showed enough speed in that trial to suggest she might be able to come across and get outside the leader and if that is the case she looks a really professional type that will take some running down so happy to be with her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Not A Royal Doubt here, $25 the win on Absolute Flirt and $20 the win on Fact Or Fable!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

Irithea (No.1), Slow Burn (No.5) & Problem Solver (No.7)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.4) & Demerara (No.6)

Racing in Sydney again comes from Rosehill this Saturday. The rail moves back to the true position and it is another good meeting. The weather is dry and windy in the two days leading up to the meeting and with it already being rated as good I would expect the track to stay in that position and potentially be quite firm on Saturday. I am not really going to read too much into any pattern at Rosehill as for mine the track has played perfectly over the last three weeks irrespective of the rail position. I think we can bet there with confidence again on Saturday.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a competitive race. There are plenty of winning chances here. Sexy Eyes was the horse I really found it hard to get a line on in the race. She won brilliantly over 1400m two starts back running fast time before stepping up to the 1500m last start and scrambling over the line as a $1.30 favourite. It was still a good win with a good gap back to the third horse but the interesting thing here is that she drops all the way back to the 1200m. She also draws an inside gate for Tye Angland and I had her mapped a couple of pairs back on the fence here. She is going to need some luck from there. She has still come up a good price in the race though so that nearly tempted me to back her as I anticipated her coming up shorter but I think there might be a few better equipped over the 1200m to hopefully knock her off.

I am sticking with the fresh horses. The first of those is Slow Burn. This mare returns from a spell here after running well last campaign in strong races without ever really looking like winning. If you go through her form from that campaign though you will see that she never took on anything less than Group 3 level races and competed against horses such as Quilista, Ravi, Ghisoni and Sugar Bella all of whom would probably go around pretty short in a race of this nature. She resumes here in a race that certainly looks her level. She has had two trials to have her tuned right up for this and I expect her to come ready to play. The last trial in particular I thought she closed off really nicely alongside her stable mate in Seasons who won so impressively here last Saturday. She draws a nice middle gate here for Tim Clark with some good speed outside of her and I am hopeful that she can come across with that speed and land in a nice trailing position just off the speed. She has come up around the $8 mark in early markets and at those odds I am keen to be with her.

Problem Solver is another that mare that comes into the race fresh off a near two month freshen up. She resumed from a spell at Randwick at the end of September where she was most unlucky I thought behind Maximus in a strong Benchmark 88 against the males. I thought she just about should have won that day. Since that run she has been freshened as I have mentioned and her recent trial without the blinkers was quite good. She closed off nicely. She has been saved from a winnable race in Brisbane to run here and despite drawing out, I think if she can get into a trailing position with cover she will be really strong late. Happy to be with her.

I thought the horse over the odds in the race might be Irithea. This mare raced really well through the winter months and early spring. She strung together two wins over the 1400m in Benchmark company and then took on listed races where she chased home the likes of Shumookh and Savatiano. That reads well for a race of this nature. Her recent trial was strong and I like the way she responded when asked for an effort there. From gate five I think she should be able to take up the running for Jean Van Overmeire who is an excellent front running jockey and if she gets to the front I think she might prove hard to run down. Her 1200m record is very strong so happy to be with her at the double figure odds that are on offer in a good race.

Betting strategy

There looks to be a bit of value on offer here in this race! I will have $30 the win on both Slow Burn and Problem Solver and will save with $20 the win on Irithea with all of those around the $8-10 mark so hoping we can get a result with one of them!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

2:32pm

Suggested

Trusty Lad (No.3) & Heaza Good Boy (No.6)

Dangers

A Man To Match (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben again this Saturday after we had a bit of a frustrating run there last Saturday. Plumaro kicked the day off nicely but it went a bit south after that and was topped off by Magnufighter going down narrowly in the last race. I haven’t found a lot to jump out at me for this meeting. I actually had a couple of races picked out to bet into that I ended up scrapping as I was just spending too long on the form for those particular races and was seemingly no clearer. As a result I have ended up with just three races to bet into but am pretty keen on all three of those races. The weather has been pretty rough in Brisbane on Thursday but the forecast is for real warm and sunny days on Friday and Saturday. The track is currently in the soft range but I would expect it to dry out a fair bit leading into the meeting on Saturday. It is currently a Soft 7 though so I would expect we might struggle to get to good and might just stay in the soft range come Saturday. The track played well last Saturday with winners coming from up on speed and back in the field. The rail moves out six and a half metres on Saturday which may see it play a little bit more on speed. Let’s see how it plays out.

I am kicking the day off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 1640m. The market has really narrowed this down to a race in two. A Man To Match and Trusty Lad have both come up pretty short in the market and every other runner is pretty much close to double figure odds. It is hard to dispute the fact that A Man To Match was a pretty good thing licked at the Sunshine Coast last start. I have genuine sympathy for anyone that was on him. He just got into a real awkward spot coming round the home turn and into the straight. He savaged the line late but was giving away too big a start and left his run far too late. Dale Smith goes on here and he shouldn’t have any traffic problems given he has drawn the second outside gate. I am still not going to back him despite all that. He is a horse that has been up for a little while and I feel there might be more improvement in his main rival in the betting in Trusty Lad.

This galloper returned from a spell with a super run at Doomben last start behind Light Up The Room. This bloke is just an out and out miler and beyond I feel. He ended his two year old campaign with a win here over this trip in a small field back in August. He won at good odds that day but was well supported in the market. He was spelled post that run and resumed three weeks ago behind Light Up The Room in a race where the form has already been franked with the fourth horse Plumaro winning impressively here last Saturday. Trusty Lad didn’t have the best of luck in that race. He beat Plumaro home but was held up halfway down the straight as he was starting his run. He savaged the line late but just failed to reel in the leaders. He goes quickly from the 1350m to the mile here and I would normally think that could be an issue but not in his case as he looks as if he will relish it. He again draws out so he will have to settle back in the field but providing the track is playing fair I am going to back him in to get over the top of them. I think he is a pretty handy horse despite the fact he went around $101 last start. We certainly won’t be getting those odds on Saturday but around the $3+ mark I was happy to have something on him to roll A Man To Match.

The roughie in the race I am going to save on is Heza Good Boy. This is more a bet based on the map. There just doesn’t look to be much speed in the race and this horse has improved at every start so far in his debut campaign. He was well beaten on debut before improving at his second start and then getting up on speed and breaking through at the Gold Coast two weeks ago. He draws a good gate for Jimmy Byrne to land on the speed again and if he gets an easy time of it in front he might prove hard to run down. Around the $15-20 mark I was happy to have something on him but I am pretty keen if Trusty Lad can be within striking distance he will be hard to hold out.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen on Trusty Lad here. I am not sure he will get shorter than the $3.50 mark he is at the moment given the SP of his previous start! I will have $60 the win on him and save with $15 the win on Heza Good Boy having half now at the $17 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day thinking he may shorten based on the map!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Miss Carboni (No.3) & Valse (No.8)

Dangers

Peppering (No.4) & Sweet Pickings (No.7)

Racing on a Friday afternoon comes from the great Royal Terang and I love a good meeting in this part of the world. It is a pretty quiet Friday in my office so I thought we tuck in with a Friday afternoon punt and I have whipped up a quick preview with a few races I am keen to bet into. Terang looks to have missed most of the rain that has hit other parts of Victoria and as such the track has come up rated as good with the rail in the true position.

I am kicking the day off in the first race which looks a competitive maiden despite the small field. I tweeted out earlier in the week that Valse would be a horse to watch in this maiden as the form lines around her last start run look really good. She chased home Lady Vega and My Pendant from the back of the field there and that form has held up really well with My Pendant bolting in at Sandown on Wednesday. Valse was only first up in that race and made good ground from the back of the field. I fancy if you can make ground from the back here that the big Ternag straight should suit her and happy to be in her corner.

Miss Carboni showed a bit in a Burrumbeet jump out back in October and makes her debut for the Archie Alexander stable here. She jumped on the bunny there and was pretty much throttled down on the line and still won the jump out comfortably. I would expect her to jump and lead from gate one and if she can run up to the jump out should prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

This is a handy maiden to kick the day off! I will have $40 the win on both Miss Carboni and Valse!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:00pm

Suggested

Crimson Tears (No.5) & Miss Street (No.8)

Dangers

Bel Robbie (No.3) & Lovin Th’castle (No.6)

This looks a pretty deep maiden over the 1200m. I was pretty keen on Miss Street here to break her maiden. This mare has raced really well in her four career starts to date. She was good in her debut campaign last year running two placings from three starts before going out for a long break. She resumed from effectively twelve months off the scene two weeks ago at Geelong. She ran really well there too I thought. She was well backed off the back of a solid trial and just didn’t have the luck when she needed it. She box seated behind the leader and just got held up for a run prior to the home turn. That proved costly as the leaders got away from her. She got clear and hit the line well but couldn’t reel in the two horses ahead of her. There was a good gap to the fourth horse though which is often a good sign. She draws well in gate two here for an in form Jamie Mott and I would expect her to be pretty hard to hold out. Keen to be with her.

I am saving on Crimson Tears from the Weir yard who was well in the market in her two starts in her first campaign. She didn’t do a lot in those runs but had obviously shown a bit at home given her SP profile. Her recent jump out at Ballarat looked quite stylish for mine. She has Yendall on from gate three and happy to have her in my corner as a saving bet behind Miss Street. I am wary of the first up mare from the Gelagotis yard in Lovin Th’castle who has been well tried in betting this morning but I couldn’t really take much from her trial so risking her but obviously respect the stable and the support.

Betting strategy

Miss Street looks just about the best of the day for mine! I will have $75 the win on her and cover the bet by saving with $15 the win on Crimson Tears hoping we get $6+!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:10pm

Suggested

Bomb Blast (No.1), Chortomic (No.2), Talk’emaround (No.9) & Countess De Galvez (No.14)

Dangers

Savvy Boy (No.7) & Fatuma (No.12)

This is a deep maiden here with plenty of winning chances. I am happy to play pretty wide. Talk’emaround looks to have his hoof on the till. His two runs back from a spell this time in have been good. He ran well first up behind Mumbles in a maiden at Stawell before just being touched off at Ararat last start in what looked a handy maiden after racing on speed. He should be primed here third up from a spell and I would expect him to roll across from the wide draw and take up a position on speed for Jarrod Fry. The 1400m is probably the slight question mark but if he handles that I expect him to be pretty hard to hold out and happy to be with him.

Bomb Blast comes through that same maiden having run third in the race and I think he can be a big improver here second up at double figure odds. He got back out of his ground in that maiden and made up really good ground late. He is one that will certainly be suited by the step up to 1400m and I am more than happy to have something on him at the price. I think he is over the odds.

I don’t want to be losing on the race if the Weir runner in Countess De Galvez can salute. She ran well on debut behind Mumbles in the same race that Talk’emaround was in and beat that horse home running second. She then got back out of her ground in a strong maiden at Ballarat last start and hit the line well. She was jumping from 1100m to 1400m there so she should be well suited here with that run over this trip under her belt and at her third start I would expect her to improve again and be in the finish.

Chortomic is the other horse at odds I want to be on. This galloper showed good speed on debut in a handy maiden at Hamilton before getting back out of his ground at The Bool last start. I thought he worked through the line quite nicely in that race from the back of the field on a day where it wasn’t easy to make ground. He draws a nice middle gate here and while I was hoping after jotting him down in that maiden last start that he would find an easier maiden I am happy to be with him here at the good odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Talk’emaround here! I will also have $25 the win on Countess De Galvez and $15 the win on Bomb Blast and Chortomic with the latter being well backed this morning!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 6

3:20pm

Suggested

Lonruse (No.4), Bernie’s Regret (No.7), Careering Away (No.9) & Lunch At Rulers (No.11)

Dangers

Ruby Sea (No.2) & Allspice (No.6)

This is another deep race over the 1400m with quite a few winning chances. I was pretty keen on Bernie’s Regret when first up from a spell at The Bool two starts ago and he disappointed. He bounced back second up though and ran really well behind Von Mystic and I am happy to give him another shot here. He draws to get a good run on the speed for Jarrod Fry from gate three and if he can hold a position a bit closer to the lead today then I am hopeful that he might be able to get over the top of them. Happy to be with him.

Careering Away gets up to the 1400m here and I think that could be a key factor. He has been hitting the line well over the shorter trips and I think at his fourth run back from a spell he should be primed to run well up in trip. He draws a middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Jamie Mott and happy to be with him.

I certainly want to have something on Lonruse at double figure odds. This galloper from the Paul Presuker yard won his only start here in a maiden back on New Years Day. His runs this campaign have been mixed. He kicked off over 1000m at Warracknabeal and worked to the line fairly before taking on a strong BM64 at Ballarat and being well beaten. He was then freshened up before leading the field up over 1400m at Horsham last start and compounding late. I am hoping he has taken good benefit from that even though he is a month between runs again. He just looked short of a run that day and from gate one here I am hoping he can roll forward on speed and be hard to run down. Happy to be with him at double figure odds.

I am also going to have something on Lunch At Rulers at big odds. This galloper won well at Mortlake in a handy maiden last start when I was on him and I was surprised he come up $30+ in the early markets here so at that price I thought he was worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bernie’s Regret here, $25 the win on Careering Away! I will have $15 the win on Lonruse locking in the $15 about him and $10 the win on Lunch At Rulers having half now at the $41 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:30pm

Suggested

Delightful Cat (No.6) & Gin Atomic (No.12)

Dangers

Juanito Uvez (No.3) & Grogans Anvil (No.7)

I am pretty keen on Gin Atomic here as it seems most punters are. She has been well supported right through the morning and I think she looks to be one of the better bets of the day. She is a mare that has always shown good talent and has often started pretty short in the market. She has been beaten favourite a few times in her career. I think she should run well here though. She was a big run at Penola first up when she was a bit soft in the market. She got a long way back over the 1100m and hit the line strongly from the back. She looked like she was going to finish well back but actually ended up getting pretty close at the finish. She draws wide here for Jordan Childs so I anticipate she will go back again but think she strikes a pretty winnable race. If she has come on from the first up run and gets a bit of luck from the draw I think she will be winning.

It is a 1000m race though and there is the potential for her to be spotting some of these horses up front a fair start. Delightful Cat is fit and in form and comes through a couple of handy races at her last two starts. She should jump on the bunny from gate three and be pretty hard to run down. She is a winner here and her 1000m record is quite good. Keen to have her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Gin Atomic having half now at the $4.80 with SportsBet and the other half at best tote later in the day! I will save with $30 the win on Delightful Cat!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 9

5:05pm

Suggested

Mumbles (No.12) & Suplex City (No.16)

Dangers

Caribbean Pearl (No.10) & Immaculate Secret (No.11)

This is a handy race to finish the day on over the 1200m. Mumbles looks to have come back from a spell in good order this time in. He was a cracking win at Stawell first up to break his maiden coming from off the speed and wide around the bend to round his rivals up and salute in good fashion. He then went to Moonee Valley and ran well in a strong race behind Jentico. He looks to get a nice setup here. He draws nicely in gate six to land just off the speed. I think the long Terang straight will certainly suit him better than Moonee Valley last start and happy to be with him.

Suplex City looks a horse with good scope. He has always been a horse that has shown a good deal of talent. He resumed off a long break for the new stable at The Bool last start with a pretty dominant win and I fancy there might be a bit more to come from him. He looks to have a bit of upside; I don’t mind him drawn out and happy to be with him second up.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Suplex City here and $30 the win on Mumbles in the last race!

Race Outlay

$80

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