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Select Race Meeting Event

Race 2

1:20pm

Suggested

Sweet Mary (No.10) & Duchy Of Savoy (No.14)

Dangers

La Rocque (No.1) & Frost Flowers (No.2)

It is the final day of the racing season in Australia and we close out with a return to racing at The Valley. I have to admit, with a weather forecast like Saturday’s, The Valley is probably the last place I wanted a meeting to be held. There is afternoon rain forecast and a fair bit of it. That could certainly impact the track and how the track plays is a bit of an unknown given we are racing here for the first time in a few months. We are definitely going to stay in the soft range and with the rail out three metres I don’t anticipate horses up on speed being disadvantaged but it really is a day to watch how things play out early and there may be some adjustments that need to be made based on patterns seen rather than trying to predict.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m for the two year old fillies. Tricky race. We start to see a real crossover of form with horses resuming coming up against horses that have kicked off their careers in the winter months. Sweet Mary debuted at Casterton two weeks ago and won in the manner of a good horse. I am not sure there was much behind her in terms of opposition but she lobbed outside the leader, put the race to bed early in the straight and won by six lengths and it probably could have been more. That was over the 1200m which is the slight question mark. She has to come back to the 1000m here but she showed enough tempo in that debut run to suggest she can certainly land on speed here. To offset the drop back in distance query she has had the recent run under her belt, she handled soft conditions that day and she ran very quick time. I think she goes well and think this is within her grasp so happy to be with her.

Duchy Of Savoy is the in between runner in terms of her preparation. She had one run back from a spell in Sydney in June where she was just cut down late over the 1100m in a race where she beat the rest easily. Since then she has been freshened up and jumped out well. Her debut run at Caulfield back in January was excellent and she draws to get a gun trailing run for Williams just off the speed. She might be that bit more forward in her preparation then those resuming and as such think she can run very well here.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Sweet Mary and $30 the win on Duchy Of Savoy here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

3:50pm

Suggested

Betcha Flying (No.1), Leale (No.6), Nordic Symphony (No.7) & Silver Lake (No.13)

Dangers

Why Choose Her (No.2) & Ghodeleine (No.3)

This race is for the mares over the mile. This is the race I was happy to play pretty wide on the program. I did think Leale went up big odds here and looked a very good bet around the $12 mark. She comes out of the race that the favourite Ghodeleine won last start and also that White Hibiscus comes through. Both Ghodeleine and White Hibiscus have come up around that $4.60-5 range in the early markets where as Leale is over double the price of those two. That race last start Leale raced up on speed but got very little peace. She couldn’t find the lead, horses whipped up around her to keep her working to hold the spot outside the leader and she wilted to finish fourth. She still wasn’t beaten far however and was clearly the best of those that raced up on speed. The race was certainly run to suit the other two horses. I think Leale gets a much better setup here. She looks like she will be able to assume control of the race in front and that should make her a lot harder to run down. She has raced well here at this track before and loves the mile. I think she is a great bet around the $12 mark.

Betcha Flying was good against the males last start at Caulfield and this is a very winnable race for her if she can perform anywhere near her best. She should be rock hard fit now here at her fourth run back from a spell and Waller has elected to come here rather than a race in Sydney where she looked a winning chance. I think she will run very well here. A couple at big odds I want to have something on.

Nordic Symphony is a handy mare on her day. Her first up run last start behind Turaath was good. She got through the line nicely. She should appreciate the step up to the mile here and from the low draw will do no work in the run. If the breaks come her way and she can pick her way through the field she could surprise at the $40+ on offer.

Silver Lake is the other horse I am going to have something on. She just looks like she might be open to a bit more improvement than a few of her rivals in this race. She was good first up at Wangaratta and then hit the line strongly to win second up at Sale. She is racing like she is looking for the mile now and if she can improve again here into her third Australian run then she can definitely measure up at a price.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Betcha Flying, $20 the win on Leale at the $11 and $10 the win on Nordic Symphony and Silver Lake taking the $41 about the former!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

2:15pm

Suggested

Mr Tipla (No.1), Canasta (No.2) & California Longbow (No.9)

Dangers

Think Free (No.10) & Wairere Falls (No.11)

This race is over the 1500m. I think this might finally be the day this campaign for Canasta. While he has been racing well this campaign, things haven’t really been in his favour. I am not sure he is totally at home on heavy tracks and he has encountered two of those as well as three soft tracks. Last start he just got taken on in the lead and couldn’t get control of the race. He actually ended up sticking on well all things considering I thought. Surely today is the day. He looks to get complete control of the race. Cognac looks the only other horse capable of leading but I think Josh Parr will make his intentions pretty clear and cross and lead. Back on the drier track with the rail out coming back to the 1500m he just looks to get the perfect opportunity to get back on the winners list. I think he will. The one question mark with him is that he is coming into the sixth run of a campaign where he has had some pretty tough runs. For that reason I am just going to save on a couple of other runners in case.

Mr Tipla brings the different form into the race coming up from Melbourne. He is flying this campaign. All of his runs have been very good and I see no reason why he won’t run well again here in Sydney and thought he went up well over the odds. The stable will probably be rueing the fact they have come up to Sydney and somehow missed a wet track in July but from the low draw he will do no work in the run and looks a big price.

I thought California Longbow’s two trials leading into this have been pretty good. My thought process behind backing him is that if Canasta gets rolled, it will probably be because something takes him on and they go mad up front and set it up for something to be strong from the back. If it pans out that way then California Longbow might be that horse and at the big price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Canasta, $15 the win on Mr Tipla and $10 the win on California Longbow!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 2

1:20pm

Suggested

Sweet Mary (No.10) & Duchy Of Savoy (No.14)

Dangers

La Rocque (No.1) & Frost Flowers (No.2)

It is the final day of the racing season in Australia and we close out with a return to racing at The Valley. I have to admit, with a weather forecast like Saturday’s, The Valley is probably the last place I wanted a meeting to be held. There is afternoon rain forecast and a fair bit of it. That could certainly impact the track and how the track plays is a bit of an unknown given we are racing here for the first time in a few months. We are definitely going to stay in the soft range and with the rail out three metres I don’t anticipate horses up on speed being disadvantaged but it really is a day to watch how things play out early and there may be some adjustments that need to be made based on patterns seen rather than trying to predict.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m for the two year old fillies. Tricky race. We start to see a real crossover of form with horses resuming coming up against horses that have kicked off their careers in the winter months. Sweet Mary debuted at Casterton two weeks ago and won in the manner of a good horse. I am not sure there was much behind her in terms of opposition but she lobbed outside the leader, put the race to bed early in the straight and won by six lengths and it probably could have been more. That was over the 1200m which is the slight question mark. She has to come back to the 1000m here but she showed enough tempo in that debut run to suggest she can certainly land on speed here. To offset the drop back in distance query she has had the recent run under her belt, she handled soft conditions that day and she ran very quick time. I think she goes well and think this is within her grasp so happy to be with her.

Duchy Of Savoy is the in between runner in terms of her preparation. She had one run back from a spell in Sydney in June where she was just cut down late over the 1100m in a race where she beat the rest easily. Since then she has been freshened up and jumped out well. Her debut run at Caulfield back in January was excellent and she draws to get a gun trailing run for Williams just off the speed. She might be that bit more forward in her preparation then those resuming and as such think she can run very well here.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Sweet Mary and $30 the win on Duchy Of Savoy here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

3:50pm

Suggested

Betcha Flying (No.1), Leale (No.6), Nordic Symphony (No.7) & Silver Lake (No.13)

Dangers

Why Choose Her (No.2) & Ghodeleine (No.3)

This race is for the mares over the mile. This is the race I was happy to play pretty wide on the program. I did think Leale went up big odds here and looked a very good bet around the $12 mark. She comes out of the race that the favourite Ghodeleine won last start and also that White Hibiscus comes through. Both Ghodeleine and White Hibiscus have come up around that $4.60-5 range in the early markets where as Leale is over double the price of those two. That race last start Leale raced up on speed but got very little peace. She couldn’t find the lead, horses whipped up around her to keep her working to hold the spot outside the leader and she wilted to finish fourth. She still wasn’t beaten far however and was clearly the best of those that raced up on speed. The race was certainly run to suit the other two horses. I think Leale gets a much better setup here. She looks like she will be able to assume control of the race in front and that should make her a lot harder to run down. She has raced well here at this track before and loves the mile. I think she is a great bet around the $12 mark.

Betcha Flying was good against the males last start at Caulfield and this is a very winnable race for her if she can perform anywhere near her best. She should be rock hard fit now here at her fourth run back from a spell and Waller has elected to come here rather than a race in Sydney where she looked a winning chance. I think she will run very well here. A couple at big odds I want to have something on.

Nordic Symphony is a handy mare on her day. Her first up run last start behind Turaath was good. She got through the line nicely. She should appreciate the step up to the mile here and from the low draw will do no work in the run. If the breaks come her way and she can pick her way through the field she could surprise at the $40+ on offer.

Silver Lake is the other horse I am going to have something on. She just looks like she might be open to a bit more improvement than a few of her rivals in this race. She was good first up at Wangaratta and then hit the line strongly to win second up at Sale. She is racing like she is looking for the mile now and if she can improve again here into her third Australian run then she can definitely measure up at a price.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Betcha Flying, $20 the win on Leale at the $11 and $10 the win on Nordic Symphony and Silver Lake taking the $41 about the former!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

2:15pm

Suggested

Mr Tipla (No.1), Canasta (No.2) & California Longbow (No.9)

Dangers

Think Free (No.10) & Wairere Falls (No.11)

This race is over the 1500m. I think this might finally be the day this campaign for Canasta. While he has been racing well this campaign, things haven’t really been in his favour. I am not sure he is totally at home on heavy tracks and he has encountered two of those as well as three soft tracks. Last start he just got taken on in the lead and couldn’t get control of the race. He actually ended up sticking on well all things considering I thought. Surely today is the day. He looks to get complete control of the race. Cognac looks the only other horse capable of leading but I think Josh Parr will make his intentions pretty clear and cross and lead. Back on the drier track with the rail out coming back to the 1500m he just looks to get the perfect opportunity to get back on the winners list. I think he will. The one question mark with him is that he is coming into the sixth run of a campaign where he has had some pretty tough runs. For that reason I am just going to save on a couple of other runners in case.

Mr Tipla brings the different form into the race coming up from Melbourne. He is flying this campaign. All of his runs have been very good and I see no reason why he won’t run well again here in Sydney and thought he went up well over the odds. The stable will probably be rueing the fact they have come up to Sydney and somehow missed a wet track in July but from the low draw he will do no work in the run and looks a big price.

I thought California Longbow’s two trials leading into this have been pretty good. My thought process behind backing him is that if Canasta gets rolled, it will probably be because something takes him on and they go mad up front and set it up for something to be strong from the back. If it pans out that way then California Longbow might be that horse and at the big price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Canasta, $15 the win on Mr Tipla and $10 the win on California Longbow!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 2

1:20pm

Suggested

Sweet Mary (No.10) & Duchy Of Savoy (No.14)

Dangers

La Rocque (No.1) & Frost Flowers (No.2)

It is the final day of the racing season in Australia and we close out with a return to racing at The Valley. I have to admit, with a weather forecast like Saturday’s, The Valley is probably the last place I wanted a meeting to be held. There is afternoon rain forecast and a fair bit of it. That could certainly impact the track and how the track plays is a bit of an unknown given we are racing here for the first time in a few months. We are definitely going to stay in the soft range and with the rail out three metres I don’t anticipate horses up on speed being disadvantaged but it really is a day to watch how things play out early and there may be some adjustments that need to be made based on patterns seen rather than trying to predict.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m for the two year old fillies. Tricky race. We start to see a real crossover of form with horses resuming coming up against horses that have kicked off their careers in the winter months. Sweet Mary debuted at Casterton two weeks ago and won in the manner of a good horse. I am not sure there was much behind her in terms of opposition but she lobbed outside the leader, put the race to bed early in the straight and won by six lengths and it probably could have been more. That was over the 1200m which is the slight question mark. She has to come back to the 1000m here but she showed enough tempo in that debut run to suggest she can certainly land on speed here. To offset the drop back in distance query she has had the recent run under her belt, she handled soft conditions that day and she ran very quick time. I think she goes well and think this is within her grasp so happy to be with her.

Duchy Of Savoy is the in between runner in terms of her preparation. She had one run back from a spell in Sydney in June where she was just cut down late over the 1100m in a race where she beat the rest easily. Since then she has been freshened up and jumped out well. Her debut run at Caulfield back in January was excellent and she draws to get a gun trailing run for Williams just off the speed. She might be that bit more forward in her preparation then those resuming and as such think she can run very well here.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Sweet Mary and $30 the win on Duchy Of Savoy here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

3:50pm

Suggested

Betcha Flying (No.1), Leale (No.6), Nordic Symphony (No.7) & Silver Lake (No.13)

Dangers

Why Choose Her (No.2) & Ghodeleine (No.3)

This race is for the mares over the mile. This is the race I was happy to play pretty wide on the program. I did think Leale went up big odds here and looked a very good bet around the $12 mark. She comes out of the race that the favourite Ghodeleine won last start and also that White Hibiscus comes through. Both Ghodeleine and White Hibiscus have come up around that $4.60-5 range in the early markets where as Leale is over double the price of those two. That race last start Leale raced up on speed but got very little peace. She couldn’t find the lead, horses whipped up around her to keep her working to hold the spot outside the leader and she wilted to finish fourth. She still wasn’t beaten far however and was clearly the best of those that raced up on speed. The race was certainly run to suit the other two horses. I think Leale gets a much better setup here. She looks like she will be able to assume control of the race in front and that should make her a lot harder to run down. She has raced well here at this track before and loves the mile. I think she is a great bet around the $12 mark.

Betcha Flying was good against the males last start at Caulfield and this is a very winnable race for her if she can perform anywhere near her best. She should be rock hard fit now here at her fourth run back from a spell and Waller has elected to come here rather than a race in Sydney where she looked a winning chance. I think she will run very well here. A couple at big odds I want to have something on.

Nordic Symphony is a handy mare on her day. Her first up run last start behind Turaath was good. She got through the line nicely. She should appreciate the step up to the mile here and from the low draw will do no work in the run. If the breaks come her way and she can pick her way through the field she could surprise at the $40+ on offer.

Silver Lake is the other horse I am going to have something on. She just looks like she might be open to a bit more improvement than a few of her rivals in this race. She was good first up at Wangaratta and then hit the line strongly to win second up at Sale. She is racing like she is looking for the mile now and if she can improve again here into her third Australian run then she can definitely measure up at a price.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Betcha Flying, $20 the win on Leale at the $11 and $10 the win on Nordic Symphony and Silver Lake taking the $41 about the former!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

2:15pm

Suggested

Mr Tipla (No.1), Canasta (No.2) & California Longbow (No.9)

Dangers

Think Free (No.10) & Wairere Falls (No.11)

This race is over the 1500m. I think this might finally be the day this campaign for Canasta. While he has been racing well this campaign, things haven’t really been in his favour. I am not sure he is totally at home on heavy tracks and he has encountered two of those as well as three soft tracks. Last start he just got taken on in the lead and couldn’t get control of the race. He actually ended up sticking on well all things considering I thought. Surely today is the day. He looks to get complete control of the race. Cognac looks the only other horse capable of leading but I think Josh Parr will make his intentions pretty clear and cross and lead. Back on the drier track with the rail out coming back to the 1500m he just looks to get the perfect opportunity to get back on the winners list. I think he will. The one question mark with him is that he is coming into the sixth run of a campaign where he has had some pretty tough runs. For that reason I am just going to save on a couple of other runners in case.

Mr Tipla brings the different form into the race coming up from Melbourne. He is flying this campaign. All of his runs have been very good and I see no reason why he won’t run well again here in Sydney and thought he went up well over the odds. The stable will probably be rueing the fact they have come up to Sydney and somehow missed a wet track in July but from the low draw he will do no work in the run and looks a big price.

I thought California Longbow’s two trials leading into this have been pretty good. My thought process behind backing him is that if Canasta gets rolled, it will probably be because something takes him on and they go mad up front and set it up for something to be strong from the back. If it pans out that way then California Longbow might be that horse and at the big price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Canasta, $15 the win on Mr Tipla and $10 the win on California Longbow!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 2

1:20pm

Suggested

Sweet Mary (No.10) & Duchy Of Savoy (No.14)

Dangers

La Rocque (No.1) & Frost Flowers (No.2)

It is the final day of the racing season in Australia and we close out with a return to racing at The Valley. I have to admit, with a weather forecast like Saturday’s, The Valley is probably the last place I wanted a meeting to be held. There is afternoon rain forecast and a fair bit of it. That could certainly impact the track and how the track plays is a bit of an unknown given we are racing here for the first time in a few months. We are definitely going to stay in the soft range and with the rail out three metres I don’t anticipate horses up on speed being disadvantaged but it really is a day to watch how things play out early and there may be some adjustments that need to be made based on patterns seen rather than trying to predict.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m for the two year old fillies. Tricky race. We start to see a real crossover of form with horses resuming coming up against horses that have kicked off their careers in the winter months. Sweet Mary debuted at Casterton two weeks ago and won in the manner of a good horse. I am not sure there was much behind her in terms of opposition but she lobbed outside the leader, put the race to bed early in the straight and won by six lengths and it probably could have been more. That was over the 1200m which is the slight question mark. She has to come back to the 1000m here but she showed enough tempo in that debut run to suggest she can certainly land on speed here. To offset the drop back in distance query she has had the recent run under her belt, she handled soft conditions that day and she ran very quick time. I think she goes well and think this is within her grasp so happy to be with her.

Duchy Of Savoy is the in between runner in terms of her preparation. She had one run back from a spell in Sydney in June where she was just cut down late over the 1100m in a race where she beat the rest easily. Since then she has been freshened up and jumped out well. Her debut run at Caulfield back in January was excellent and she draws to get a gun trailing run for Williams just off the speed. She might be that bit more forward in her preparation then those resuming and as such think she can run very well here.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Sweet Mary and $30 the win on Duchy Of Savoy here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

3:50pm

Suggested

Betcha Flying (No.1), Leale (No.6), Nordic Symphony (No.7) & Silver Lake (No.13)

Dangers

Why Choose Her (No.2) & Ghodeleine (No.3)

This race is for the mares over the mile. This is the race I was happy to play pretty wide on the program. I did think Leale went up big odds here and looked a very good bet around the $12 mark. She comes out of the race that the favourite Ghodeleine won last start and also that White Hibiscus comes through. Both Ghodeleine and White Hibiscus have come up around that $4.60-5 range in the early markets where as Leale is over double the price of those two. That race last start Leale raced up on speed but got very little peace. She couldn’t find the lead, horses whipped up around her to keep her working to hold the spot outside the leader and she wilted to finish fourth. She still wasn’t beaten far however and was clearly the best of those that raced up on speed. The race was certainly run to suit the other two horses. I think Leale gets a much better setup here. She looks like she will be able to assume control of the race in front and that should make her a lot harder to run down. She has raced well here at this track before and loves the mile. I think she is a great bet around the $12 mark.

Betcha Flying was good against the males last start at Caulfield and this is a very winnable race for her if she can perform anywhere near her best. She should be rock hard fit now here at her fourth run back from a spell and Waller has elected to come here rather than a race in Sydney where she looked a winning chance. I think she will run very well here. A couple at big odds I want to have something on.

Nordic Symphony is a handy mare on her day. Her first up run last start behind Turaath was good. She got through the line nicely. She should appreciate the step up to the mile here and from the low draw will do no work in the run. If the breaks come her way and she can pick her way through the field she could surprise at the $40+ on offer.

Silver Lake is the other horse I am going to have something on. She just looks like she might be open to a bit more improvement than a few of her rivals in this race. She was good first up at Wangaratta and then hit the line strongly to win second up at Sale. She is racing like she is looking for the mile now and if she can improve again here into her third Australian run then she can definitely measure up at a price.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Betcha Flying, $20 the win on Leale at the $11 and $10 the win on Nordic Symphony and Silver Lake taking the $41 about the former!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

2:15pm

Suggested

Mr Tipla (No.1), Canasta (No.2) & California Longbow (No.9)

Dangers

Think Free (No.10) & Wairere Falls (No.11)

This race is over the 1500m. I think this might finally be the day this campaign for Canasta. While he has been racing well this campaign, things haven’t really been in his favour. I am not sure he is totally at home on heavy tracks and he has encountered two of those as well as three soft tracks. Last start he just got taken on in the lead and couldn’t get control of the race. He actually ended up sticking on well all things considering I thought. Surely today is the day. He looks to get complete control of the race. Cognac looks the only other horse capable of leading but I think Josh Parr will make his intentions pretty clear and cross and lead. Back on the drier track with the rail out coming back to the 1500m he just looks to get the perfect opportunity to get back on the winners list. I think he will. The one question mark with him is that he is coming into the sixth run of a campaign where he has had some pretty tough runs. For that reason I am just going to save on a couple of other runners in case.

Mr Tipla brings the different form into the race coming up from Melbourne. He is flying this campaign. All of his runs have been very good and I see no reason why he won’t run well again here in Sydney and thought he went up well over the odds. The stable will probably be rueing the fact they have come up to Sydney and somehow missed a wet track in July but from the low draw he will do no work in the run and looks a big price.

I thought California Longbow’s two trials leading into this have been pretty good. My thought process behind backing him is that if Canasta gets rolled, it will probably be because something takes him on and they go mad up front and set it up for something to be strong from the back. If it pans out that way then California Longbow might be that horse and at the big price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Canasta, $15 the win on Mr Tipla and $10 the win on California Longbow!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 2

1:20pm

Suggested

Sweet Mary (No.10) & Duchy Of Savoy (No.14)

Dangers

La Rocque (No.1) & Frost Flowers (No.2)

It is the final day of the racing season in Australia and we close out with a return to racing at The Valley. I have to admit, with a weather forecast like Saturday’s, The Valley is probably the last place I wanted a meeting to be held. There is afternoon rain forecast and a fair bit of it. That could certainly impact the track and how the track plays is a bit of an unknown given we are racing here for the first time in a few months. We are definitely going to stay in the soft range and with the rail out three metres I don’t anticipate horses up on speed being disadvantaged but it really is a day to watch how things play out early and there may be some adjustments that need to be made based on patterns seen rather than trying to predict.

I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m for the two year old fillies. Tricky race. We start to see a real crossover of form with horses resuming coming up against horses that have kicked off their careers in the winter months. Sweet Mary debuted at Casterton two weeks ago and won in the manner of a good horse. I am not sure there was much behind her in terms of opposition but she lobbed outside the leader, put the race to bed early in the straight and won by six lengths and it probably could have been more. That was over the 1200m which is the slight question mark. She has to come back to the 1000m here but she showed enough tempo in that debut run to suggest she can certainly land on speed here. To offset the drop back in distance query she has had the recent run under her belt, she handled soft conditions that day and she ran very quick time. I think she goes well and think this is within her grasp so happy to be with her.

Duchy Of Savoy is the in between runner in terms of her preparation. She had one run back from a spell in Sydney in June where she was just cut down late over the 1100m in a race where she beat the rest easily. Since then she has been freshened up and jumped out well. Her debut run at Caulfield back in January was excellent and she draws to get a gun trailing run for Williams just off the speed. She might be that bit more forward in her preparation then those resuming and as such think she can run very well here.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Sweet Mary and $30 the win on Duchy Of Savoy here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

3:50pm

Suggested

Betcha Flying (No.1), Leale (No.6), Nordic Symphony (No.7) & Silver Lake (No.13)

Dangers

Why Choose Her (No.2) & Ghodeleine (No.3)

This race is for the mares over the mile. This is the race I was happy to play pretty wide on the program. I did think Leale went up big odds here and looked a very good bet around the $12 mark. She comes out of the race that the favourite Ghodeleine won last start and also that White Hibiscus comes through. Both Ghodeleine and White Hibiscus have come up around that $4.60-5 range in the early markets where as Leale is over double the price of those two. That race last start Leale raced up on speed but got very little peace. She couldn’t find the lead, horses whipped up around her to keep her working to hold the spot outside the leader and she wilted to finish fourth. She still wasn’t beaten far however and was clearly the best of those that raced up on speed. The race was certainly run to suit the other two horses. I think Leale gets a much better setup here. She looks like she will be able to assume control of the race in front and that should make her a lot harder to run down. She has raced well here at this track before and loves the mile. I think she is a great bet around the $12 mark.

Betcha Flying was good against the males last start at Caulfield and this is a very winnable race for her if she can perform anywhere near her best. She should be rock hard fit now here at her fourth run back from a spell and Waller has elected to come here rather than a race in Sydney where she looked a winning chance. I think she will run very well here. A couple at big odds I want to have something on.

Nordic Symphony is a handy mare on her day. Her first up run last start behind Turaath was good. She got through the line nicely. She should appreciate the step up to the mile here and from the low draw will do no work in the run. If the breaks come her way and she can pick her way through the field she could surprise at the $40+ on offer.

Silver Lake is the other horse I am going to have something on. She just looks like she might be open to a bit more improvement than a few of her rivals in this race. She was good first up at Wangaratta and then hit the line strongly to win second up at Sale. She is racing like she is looking for the mile now and if she can improve again here into her third Australian run then she can definitely measure up at a price.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Betcha Flying, $20 the win on Leale at the $11 and $10 the win on Nordic Symphony and Silver Lake taking the $41 about the former!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 6

2:15pm

Suggested

Mr Tipla (No.1), Canasta (No.2) & California Longbow (No.9)

Dangers

Think Free (No.10) & Wairere Falls (No.11)

This race is over the 1500m. I think this might finally be the day this campaign for Canasta. While he has been racing well this campaign, things haven’t really been in his favour. I am not sure he is totally at home on heavy tracks and he has encountered two of those as well as three soft tracks. Last start he just got taken on in the lead and couldn’t get control of the race. He actually ended up sticking on well all things considering I thought. Surely today is the day. He looks to get complete control of the race. Cognac looks the only other horse capable of leading but I think Josh Parr will make his intentions pretty clear and cross and lead. Back on the drier track with the rail out coming back to the 1500m he just looks to get the perfect opportunity to get back on the winners list. I think he will. The one question mark with him is that he is coming into the sixth run of a campaign where he has had some pretty tough runs. For that reason I am just going to save on a couple of other runners in case.

Mr Tipla brings the different form into the race coming up from Melbourne. He is flying this campaign. All of his runs have been very good and I see no reason why he won’t run well again here in Sydney and thought he went up well over the odds. The stable will probably be rueing the fact they have come up to Sydney and somehow missed a wet track in July but from the low draw he will do no work in the run and looks a big price.

I thought California Longbow’s two trials leading into this have been pretty good. My thought process behind backing him is that if Canasta gets rolled, it will probably be because something takes him on and they go mad up front and set it up for something to be strong from the back. If it pans out that way then California Longbow might be that horse and at the big price is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Canasta, $15 the win on Mr Tipla and $10 the win on California Longbow!

Race Outlay

$85

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