Select a Race Meeting

Race 1

12:40pm

Suggested

Katona (No.5), Absolute Flirt (No.9) & Taraayef (No.12)

Dangers

The Executioner (No.1) & First Responder (No.4)

Racing on this public holiday Easter Monday in Melbourne comes from Sandown Hillside for what looks to be a pretty deep meeting. There has been a bit of rain overnight in Melbourne but nothing too significant and we will be racing on a perfect surface which should have that little touch of give in it but remain in the good range. The rail is out four metres and I feel we might see horses get a bit wider on the track as the day progresses. I am kicking the day in the first race of the day which is for the two year olds over the 1000m. It is an interesting race, I think we will see a few smart ones go around here. Absolute Flirt resumes from a spell here having performed well in her debut campaign in two runs. She has had a recent jump out at Werribee which she also went quite well in and is saddled up by Danny O’Brien with Damien Oliver on board. Therein lies a pretty lethal combination in more recent times. She has come up favourite in the market this morning and I think she is well enough found but given the form the stable is in I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to have something on her. Katona beat her in that jump out and looked to do so quite impressively. He showed good speed, landed in front and I thought held his rivals quite comfortably. He looks a nice big strong colt that will most likely appreciate the wider draw here and with Williams rolling forward around one bend on the big track I think he will be hard to beat. I had him marked a lot shorter in the market and closer to Absolute Flirt so around the $7 mark I think he is a good bet. Taraayef debuts for the Hayes stable here and also looked quite impressive on the same day at those Werribee jump outs. Her jump out was in good time and she also showed good speed. Around the $9 mark I was happy to keep her on side in what I think will turn out to be a pretty handy two year old race.

Betting strategy

There has been good market support pre 9am for Katona and Taraayef which pleases me even if I did miss the price! I will have $30 the win on Katona and $25 the win on Taraayef and Absolute Flirt here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:15pm

Suggested

Elam (No.7), Not Enough Effort (No.11) & The Sisters (No.16)

Dangers

Delvecchio (No.4) & Rushford (No.12)

This is a good race this one over the 1000m. We should again see some nice horses going around. Not Enough Effort certainly made a good impression winning on debut at Sale. Off the back of a nice trial he was pretty firm in the market and jumped straight to the front and never gave any of his rivals a look in. He won easily and did so in good time for the day. There were three 1000m races that day and he was easily the quickest on them. I am going to back him in to do it again here. He should be improved by that debut outing with natural race experience and if that is the case he is going to be hard to run down here so happy to be in his corner. I am saving on a couple of resuming runners. The Sisters jumped out really well recently at Mornington and I certainly think she can be competitive here. She won well on debut in her first campaign at Mornington before taking on a pretty handy race at Flemington at just her second start and running quite well. I just like the way she quickened up in that recent jump out coming from off the speed and with natural improvement into this second campaign I think she can run well here. Elam is the one at big odds I want to have something on. This horse wasn’t far away from some handy horses last campaign. He was competitive with the likes of Toy Boy, Superhard and Sirius Suspect which all reads as pretty good form for this. He went well in a recent Sale jump out and I thought the $30 on offer in early markets looked a really big price so happy to be with him. I am scared of Delvecchio who showed so much talent in his debut campaign but I just had Not Enough Effort with the more recent run under his belt rated on top and with both pretty tight in the market I couldn’t back both.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Not Enough Effort here and I will also have $20 the win on The Sisters and $10 the win on Elam who has also been well backed with $19 now the best price after $31 was available at 6am!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

I’m Telling Ya (No.1), Nicconi Poni (No.12) & Super Hussey (No.14)

Dangers

Lecture (No.6) & Feather (No.13)

This race is over the 1300m and I am going with a bit of value here around the favourites. Lecture and Feather are certainly the two the market has come up with but I thought both were pretty tight in the market and as I said there looks to be some value around them. Super Hussey has a poor winning strike rate but is certainly racing well. She chased home the in form Begood Toya Mother last start at Cranbourne and her form prior to that was also consistent without winning. There was a big gap to the third horse last start and I liked the way she kept chasing through the line. I think this represents a winning opportunity for her despite that poor strike rate I mentioned earlier. She draws a middle gate here to get a good run off the speed and I thought around the $9-10 mark she was worth a bet here. Nicconi Poni comes down from Albury off the back of a pretty dominant win at Wagga last start in quick time. She had been racing well prior to that without winning but really put it all together last start when coming from off the speed to win well. I am hoping now that she has broken through she might go on with the job and in a race I didn’t think was overly strong I don’t mind the different form reference she brings into this. Happy to have something on her at double figure odds also. One of my old favourites in I’m Telling Ya has had three runs back from a spell this time in following along break and last start was clearly his best effort this campaign when closing off nicely behind High Ratio. On his best form he would win this race I say with a fair bit of confidence. I thought there were good signs in the last start run too so I am going to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Super Hussey here, $20 the win on Nicconi Poni and $15 the win on I'm Telling Ya!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

2:30pm

Suggested

Suretoshine (No.8) & Skyway Star (No.16)

Dangers

Dark Confidant (No.3) & She’s On Time (No.14)

I haven’t come up with any surprises here in this race punters.  I think the market has this race pretty spot on for the fillies and mares over the 1800m. Skyway Star is a horse I have been following all campaign and so far it has been a mixed bag in terms of how kind she has been to me. I bet against her first up but made a note to follow her when she ran second behind a handy horse in Hurricane Fighter who I was on that day. I then tumbled into her at Bendigo and I couldn’t believe she couldn’t run past Mrs Sippy. I then couldn’t go again at the short odds last start at Ballarat when Craig Williams rode her much more positively and ensured she got the chocolates. I love how strong she was through the line last start and that should see the 1800m suit her perfectly. She looks a filly very much on the way up and she showed her talent back in the spring when not beaten far by Aristia in the Wakeful. I think this is a really nice race for her and happy to be with her. It is interesting that Williams jumps off her and rides Suretoshine. This former New Zealand mare has been excellent in her two Australian runs. She won well at Cranbourne first up before running really well here last start chasing home Sentimentalist who ran well in the Stawell Cup yesterday. She comes back against her own sex here, draws well for Williams and I can see her improving again into this race and being really hard to beat. Happy to be with her also in what looks a pretty good two bet play in this race.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Skyway Star and $40 the win on Suretoshine!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 5

3:10pm

Suggested

Fidelia (No.9), Diamond Bliss (No.11) & Fabric (No.12)

Dangers

Vivi Valentina (No.5) & Alexandra Dreaming (No.7)

This is another deep race here for the three year old fillies over the 1300m. I think there are a few handy ones going around in this race. Fidelia’s form lines look strong. She ran really well first up in a Saturday city class race behind the handy Tasmanian in Lady Pluck. She just didn’t have the best of luck that day. She was back over towards the inside and never seemed to be able to build any real momentum. She certainly never got full momentum in my opinion. Her run looked far superior to Graceful Storm who she beat home in the race and we saw that filly win well at Caulfield on Saturday. The concern here is again that inside gate. She is certainly going to need a touch of luck finding clear galloping room from there. If she does, I think she is probably the one they all have to beat. I do think you are probably going to have a couple of heart in mouth moments in the straight or rounding the home turn. I don’t want to lose on her though should she salute so I will still have something on her. Diamond Bliss was well backed to win first up here but found a very fast run race and she was chasing up to the leaders the whole way. She looked like she was going to win 200m out but just seemed to peak on her run late on. I thought it was still a very nice return and she will certainly strip a lot fitter for that run. Mark Zahra stays with her and providing she isn’t flattened by that big first up effort which I don’t think she will be given she has had plenty of time since that effort she is going to be in the finish here. Around the $9-10 mark happy to be with her. Fabric got the maiden out of the way with a barnstorming finish at Geelong first up and might go right on with the job now. This filly showed talent in her debut campaign without winning but might have come back a much better horse this time in. Craig Williams went to Geelong to ride her in that first up win and sticks with her here and for the in form Danny O’Brien stable I can see her running a big race here so happy to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Fidelia here, $25 the win on Diamond Bliss and $20 the win on Fabric having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 8

5:10pm

Suggested

Heir To The Throne (No.4)

Dangers

Paint The Town Two (No.13) & Tavirun (No.14)

This is the last race of the day over the 1800m. Racing Twitter certainly had a bit of a blow up a couple of weeks ago about the ride of Mark Zahra on Heir To The Throne when he was a beaten favourite on this track last start. He was heavily backed that day, I was really keen on him and after jumping well and seemingly landing in a good position, Zahra just allowed himself to continue getting shuffled further back in the field. By the time they entered the home straight he was well back and coming wide on the track while the eventual winner in Sentimentalist was off on gone on the rails out in front. I think it was a total forgive run and the horse still finished the race off strongly late getting through the line nicely. I think he and Mark Zahra can redeem themselves here. The horse draws ideally in gate five and it just looks another ideal race for him. I am hoping they can roll forward on him and be positive. There are a couple of Lloyd Williams stayers which should ensure a genuine tempo but providing Mark can keep him within striking distance today I think he is clearly the horse to beat and I will back up on him again.

Betting strategy

Best of the day here Heir To The Throne! I will have $90 the win on him locking in the $3.10 as I expect him to be well supported again and start shorter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

12:40pm

Suggested

Katona (No.5), Absolute Flirt (No.9) & Taraayef (No.12)

Dangers

The Executioner (No.1) & First Responder (No.4)

Racing on this public holiday Easter Monday in Melbourne comes from Sandown Hillside for what looks to be a pretty deep meeting. There has been a bit of rain overnight in Melbourne but nothing too significant and we will be racing on a perfect surface which should have that little touch of give in it but remain in the good range. The rail is out four metres and I feel we might see horses get a bit wider on the track as the day progresses. I am kicking the day in the first race of the day which is for the two year olds over the 1000m. It is an interesting race, I think we will see a few smart ones go around here. Absolute Flirt resumes from a spell here having performed well in her debut campaign in two runs. She has had a recent jump out at Werribee which she also went quite well in and is saddled up by Danny O’Brien with Damien Oliver on board. Therein lies a pretty lethal combination in more recent times. She has come up favourite in the market this morning and I think she is well enough found but given the form the stable is in I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to have something on her. Katona beat her in that jump out and looked to do so quite impressively. He showed good speed, landed in front and I thought held his rivals quite comfortably. He looks a nice big strong colt that will most likely appreciate the wider draw here and with Williams rolling forward around one bend on the big track I think he will be hard to beat. I had him marked a lot shorter in the market and closer to Absolute Flirt so around the $7 mark I think he is a good bet. Taraayef debuts for the Hayes stable here and also looked quite impressive on the same day at those Werribee jump outs. Her jump out was in good time and she also showed good speed. Around the $9 mark I was happy to keep her on side in what I think will turn out to be a pretty handy two year old race.

Betting strategy

There has been good market support pre 9am for Katona and Taraayef which pleases me even if I did miss the price! I will have $30 the win on Katona and $25 the win on Taraayef and Absolute Flirt here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:15pm

Suggested

Elam (No.7), Not Enough Effort (No.11) & The Sisters (No.16)

Dangers

Delvecchio (No.4) & Rushford (No.12)

This is a good race this one over the 1000m. We should again see some nice horses going around. Not Enough Effort certainly made a good impression winning on debut at Sale. Off the back of a nice trial he was pretty firm in the market and jumped straight to the front and never gave any of his rivals a look in. He won easily and did so in good time for the day. There were three 1000m races that day and he was easily the quickest on them. I am going to back him in to do it again here. He should be improved by that debut outing with natural race experience and if that is the case he is going to be hard to run down here so happy to be in his corner. I am saving on a couple of resuming runners. The Sisters jumped out really well recently at Mornington and I certainly think she can be competitive here. She won well on debut in her first campaign at Mornington before taking on a pretty handy race at Flemington at just her second start and running quite well. I just like the way she quickened up in that recent jump out coming from off the speed and with natural improvement into this second campaign I think she can run well here. Elam is the one at big odds I want to have something on. This horse wasn’t far away from some handy horses last campaign. He was competitive with the likes of Toy Boy, Superhard and Sirius Suspect which all reads as pretty good form for this. He went well in a recent Sale jump out and I thought the $30 on offer in early markets looked a really big price so happy to be with him. I am scared of Delvecchio who showed so much talent in his debut campaign but I just had Not Enough Effort with the more recent run under his belt rated on top and with both pretty tight in the market I couldn’t back both.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Not Enough Effort here and I will also have $20 the win on The Sisters and $10 the win on Elam who has also been well backed with $19 now the best price after $31 was available at 6am!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

I’m Telling Ya (No.1), Nicconi Poni (No.12) & Super Hussey (No.14)

Dangers

Lecture (No.6) & Feather (No.13)

This race is over the 1300m and I am going with a bit of value here around the favourites. Lecture and Feather are certainly the two the market has come up with but I thought both were pretty tight in the market and as I said there looks to be some value around them. Super Hussey has a poor winning strike rate but is certainly racing well. She chased home the in form Begood Toya Mother last start at Cranbourne and her form prior to that was also consistent without winning. There was a big gap to the third horse last start and I liked the way she kept chasing through the line. I think this represents a winning opportunity for her despite that poor strike rate I mentioned earlier. She draws a middle gate here to get a good run off the speed and I thought around the $9-10 mark she was worth a bet here. Nicconi Poni comes down from Albury off the back of a pretty dominant win at Wagga last start in quick time. She had been racing well prior to that without winning but really put it all together last start when coming from off the speed to win well. I am hoping now that she has broken through she might go on with the job and in a race I didn’t think was overly strong I don’t mind the different form reference she brings into this. Happy to have something on her at double figure odds also. One of my old favourites in I’m Telling Ya has had three runs back from a spell this time in following along break and last start was clearly his best effort this campaign when closing off nicely behind High Ratio. On his best form he would win this race I say with a fair bit of confidence. I thought there were good signs in the last start run too so I am going to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Super Hussey here, $20 the win on Nicconi Poni and $15 the win on I'm Telling Ya!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

2:30pm

Suggested

Suretoshine (No.8) & Skyway Star (No.16)

Dangers

Dark Confidant (No.3) & She’s On Time (No.14)

I haven’t come up with any surprises here in this race punters.  I think the market has this race pretty spot on for the fillies and mares over the 1800m. Skyway Star is a horse I have been following all campaign and so far it has been a mixed bag in terms of how kind she has been to me. I bet against her first up but made a note to follow her when she ran second behind a handy horse in Hurricane Fighter who I was on that day. I then tumbled into her at Bendigo and I couldn’t believe she couldn’t run past Mrs Sippy. I then couldn’t go again at the short odds last start at Ballarat when Craig Williams rode her much more positively and ensured she got the chocolates. I love how strong she was through the line last start and that should see the 1800m suit her perfectly. She looks a filly very much on the way up and she showed her talent back in the spring when not beaten far by Aristia in the Wakeful. I think this is a really nice race for her and happy to be with her. It is interesting that Williams jumps off her and rides Suretoshine. This former New Zealand mare has been excellent in her two Australian runs. She won well at Cranbourne first up before running really well here last start chasing home Sentimentalist who ran well in the Stawell Cup yesterday. She comes back against her own sex here, draws well for Williams and I can see her improving again into this race and being really hard to beat. Happy to be with her also in what looks a pretty good two bet play in this race.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Skyway Star and $40 the win on Suretoshine!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 5

3:10pm

Suggested

Fidelia (No.9), Diamond Bliss (No.11) & Fabric (No.12)

Dangers

Vivi Valentina (No.5) & Alexandra Dreaming (No.7)

This is another deep race here for the three year old fillies over the 1300m. I think there are a few handy ones going around in this race. Fidelia’s form lines look strong. She ran really well first up in a Saturday city class race behind the handy Tasmanian in Lady Pluck. She just didn’t have the best of luck that day. She was back over towards the inside and never seemed to be able to build any real momentum. She certainly never got full momentum in my opinion. Her run looked far superior to Graceful Storm who she beat home in the race and we saw that filly win well at Caulfield on Saturday. The concern here is again that inside gate. She is certainly going to need a touch of luck finding clear galloping room from there. If she does, I think she is probably the one they all have to beat. I do think you are probably going to have a couple of heart in mouth moments in the straight or rounding the home turn. I don’t want to lose on her though should she salute so I will still have something on her. Diamond Bliss was well backed to win first up here but found a very fast run race and she was chasing up to the leaders the whole way. She looked like she was going to win 200m out but just seemed to peak on her run late on. I thought it was still a very nice return and she will certainly strip a lot fitter for that run. Mark Zahra stays with her and providing she isn’t flattened by that big first up effort which I don’t think she will be given she has had plenty of time since that effort she is going to be in the finish here. Around the $9-10 mark happy to be with her. Fabric got the maiden out of the way with a barnstorming finish at Geelong first up and might go right on with the job now. This filly showed talent in her debut campaign without winning but might have come back a much better horse this time in. Craig Williams went to Geelong to ride her in that first up win and sticks with her here and for the in form Danny O’Brien stable I can see her running a big race here so happy to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Fidelia here, $25 the win on Diamond Bliss and $20 the win on Fabric having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 8

5:10pm

Suggested

Heir To The Throne (No.4)

Dangers

Paint The Town Two (No.13) & Tavirun (No.14)

This is the last race of the day over the 1800m. Racing Twitter certainly had a bit of a blow up a couple of weeks ago about the ride of Mark Zahra on Heir To The Throne when he was a beaten favourite on this track last start. He was heavily backed that day, I was really keen on him and after jumping well and seemingly landing in a good position, Zahra just allowed himself to continue getting shuffled further back in the field. By the time they entered the home straight he was well back and coming wide on the track while the eventual winner in Sentimentalist was off on gone on the rails out in front. I think it was a total forgive run and the horse still finished the race off strongly late getting through the line nicely. I think he and Mark Zahra can redeem themselves here. The horse draws ideally in gate five and it just looks another ideal race for him. I am hoping they can roll forward on him and be positive. There are a couple of Lloyd Williams stayers which should ensure a genuine tempo but providing Mark can keep him within striking distance today I think he is clearly the horse to beat and I will back up on him again.

Betting strategy

Best of the day here Heir To The Throne! I will have $90 the win on him locking in the $3.10 as I expect him to be well supported again and start shorter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

12:40pm

Suggested

Katona (No.5), Absolute Flirt (No.9) & Taraayef (No.12)

Dangers

The Executioner (No.1) & First Responder (No.4)

Racing on this public holiday Easter Monday in Melbourne comes from Sandown Hillside for what looks to be a pretty deep meeting. There has been a bit of rain overnight in Melbourne but nothing too significant and we will be racing on a perfect surface which should have that little touch of give in it but remain in the good range. The rail is out four metres and I feel we might see horses get a bit wider on the track as the day progresses. I am kicking the day in the first race of the day which is for the two year olds over the 1000m. It is an interesting race, I think we will see a few smart ones go around here. Absolute Flirt resumes from a spell here having performed well in her debut campaign in two runs. She has had a recent jump out at Werribee which she also went quite well in and is saddled up by Danny O’Brien with Damien Oliver on board. Therein lies a pretty lethal combination in more recent times. She has come up favourite in the market this morning and I think she is well enough found but given the form the stable is in I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to have something on her. Katona beat her in that jump out and looked to do so quite impressively. He showed good speed, landed in front and I thought held his rivals quite comfortably. He looks a nice big strong colt that will most likely appreciate the wider draw here and with Williams rolling forward around one bend on the big track I think he will be hard to beat. I had him marked a lot shorter in the market and closer to Absolute Flirt so around the $7 mark I think he is a good bet. Taraayef debuts for the Hayes stable here and also looked quite impressive on the same day at those Werribee jump outs. Her jump out was in good time and she also showed good speed. Around the $9 mark I was happy to keep her on side in what I think will turn out to be a pretty handy two year old race.

Betting strategy

There has been good market support pre 9am for Katona and Taraayef which pleases me even if I did miss the price! I will have $30 the win on Katona and $25 the win on Taraayef and Absolute Flirt here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:15pm

Suggested

Elam (No.7), Not Enough Effort (No.11) & The Sisters (No.16)

Dangers

Delvecchio (No.4) & Rushford (No.12)

This is a good race this one over the 1000m. We should again see some nice horses going around. Not Enough Effort certainly made a good impression winning on debut at Sale. Off the back of a nice trial he was pretty firm in the market and jumped straight to the front and never gave any of his rivals a look in. He won easily and did so in good time for the day. There were three 1000m races that day and he was easily the quickest on them. I am going to back him in to do it again here. He should be improved by that debut outing with natural race experience and if that is the case he is going to be hard to run down here so happy to be in his corner. I am saving on a couple of resuming runners. The Sisters jumped out really well recently at Mornington and I certainly think she can be competitive here. She won well on debut in her first campaign at Mornington before taking on a pretty handy race at Flemington at just her second start and running quite well. I just like the way she quickened up in that recent jump out coming from off the speed and with natural improvement into this second campaign I think she can run well here. Elam is the one at big odds I want to have something on. This horse wasn’t far away from some handy horses last campaign. He was competitive with the likes of Toy Boy, Superhard and Sirius Suspect which all reads as pretty good form for this. He went well in a recent Sale jump out and I thought the $30 on offer in early markets looked a really big price so happy to be with him. I am scared of Delvecchio who showed so much talent in his debut campaign but I just had Not Enough Effort with the more recent run under his belt rated on top and with both pretty tight in the market I couldn’t back both.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Not Enough Effort here and I will also have $20 the win on The Sisters and $10 the win on Elam who has also been well backed with $19 now the best price after $31 was available at 6am!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

I’m Telling Ya (No.1), Nicconi Poni (No.12) & Super Hussey (No.14)

Dangers

Lecture (No.6) & Feather (No.13)

This race is over the 1300m and I am going with a bit of value here around the favourites. Lecture and Feather are certainly the two the market has come up with but I thought both were pretty tight in the market and as I said there looks to be some value around them. Super Hussey has a poor winning strike rate but is certainly racing well. She chased home the in form Begood Toya Mother last start at Cranbourne and her form prior to that was also consistent without winning. There was a big gap to the third horse last start and I liked the way she kept chasing through the line. I think this represents a winning opportunity for her despite that poor strike rate I mentioned earlier. She draws a middle gate here to get a good run off the speed and I thought around the $9-10 mark she was worth a bet here. Nicconi Poni comes down from Albury off the back of a pretty dominant win at Wagga last start in quick time. She had been racing well prior to that without winning but really put it all together last start when coming from off the speed to win well. I am hoping now that she has broken through she might go on with the job and in a race I didn’t think was overly strong I don’t mind the different form reference she brings into this. Happy to have something on her at double figure odds also. One of my old favourites in I’m Telling Ya has had three runs back from a spell this time in following along break and last start was clearly his best effort this campaign when closing off nicely behind High Ratio. On his best form he would win this race I say with a fair bit of confidence. I thought there were good signs in the last start run too so I am going to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Super Hussey here, $20 the win on Nicconi Poni and $15 the win on I'm Telling Ya!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

2:30pm

Suggested

Suretoshine (No.8) & Skyway Star (No.16)

Dangers

Dark Confidant (No.3) & She’s On Time (No.14)

I haven’t come up with any surprises here in this race punters.  I think the market has this race pretty spot on for the fillies and mares over the 1800m. Skyway Star is a horse I have been following all campaign and so far it has been a mixed bag in terms of how kind she has been to me. I bet against her first up but made a note to follow her when she ran second behind a handy horse in Hurricane Fighter who I was on that day. I then tumbled into her at Bendigo and I couldn’t believe she couldn’t run past Mrs Sippy. I then couldn’t go again at the short odds last start at Ballarat when Craig Williams rode her much more positively and ensured she got the chocolates. I love how strong she was through the line last start and that should see the 1800m suit her perfectly. She looks a filly very much on the way up and she showed her talent back in the spring when not beaten far by Aristia in the Wakeful. I think this is a really nice race for her and happy to be with her. It is interesting that Williams jumps off her and rides Suretoshine. This former New Zealand mare has been excellent in her two Australian runs. She won well at Cranbourne first up before running really well here last start chasing home Sentimentalist who ran well in the Stawell Cup yesterday. She comes back against her own sex here, draws well for Williams and I can see her improving again into this race and being really hard to beat. Happy to be with her also in what looks a pretty good two bet play in this race.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Skyway Star and $40 the win on Suretoshine!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 5

3:10pm

Suggested

Fidelia (No.9), Diamond Bliss (No.11) & Fabric (No.12)

Dangers

Vivi Valentina (No.5) & Alexandra Dreaming (No.7)

This is another deep race here for the three year old fillies over the 1300m. I think there are a few handy ones going around in this race. Fidelia’s form lines look strong. She ran really well first up in a Saturday city class race behind the handy Tasmanian in Lady Pluck. She just didn’t have the best of luck that day. She was back over towards the inside and never seemed to be able to build any real momentum. She certainly never got full momentum in my opinion. Her run looked far superior to Graceful Storm who she beat home in the race and we saw that filly win well at Caulfield on Saturday. The concern here is again that inside gate. She is certainly going to need a touch of luck finding clear galloping room from there. If she does, I think she is probably the one they all have to beat. I do think you are probably going to have a couple of heart in mouth moments in the straight or rounding the home turn. I don’t want to lose on her though should she salute so I will still have something on her. Diamond Bliss was well backed to win first up here but found a very fast run race and she was chasing up to the leaders the whole way. She looked like she was going to win 200m out but just seemed to peak on her run late on. I thought it was still a very nice return and she will certainly strip a lot fitter for that run. Mark Zahra stays with her and providing she isn’t flattened by that big first up effort which I don’t think she will be given she has had plenty of time since that effort she is going to be in the finish here. Around the $9-10 mark happy to be with her. Fabric got the maiden out of the way with a barnstorming finish at Geelong first up and might go right on with the job now. This filly showed talent in her debut campaign without winning but might have come back a much better horse this time in. Craig Williams went to Geelong to ride her in that first up win and sticks with her here and for the in form Danny O’Brien stable I can see her running a big race here so happy to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Fidelia here, $25 the win on Diamond Bliss and $20 the win on Fabric having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 8

5:10pm

Suggested

Heir To The Throne (No.4)

Dangers

Paint The Town Two (No.13) & Tavirun (No.14)

This is the last race of the day over the 1800m. Racing Twitter certainly had a bit of a blow up a couple of weeks ago about the ride of Mark Zahra on Heir To The Throne when he was a beaten favourite on this track last start. He was heavily backed that day, I was really keen on him and after jumping well and seemingly landing in a good position, Zahra just allowed himself to continue getting shuffled further back in the field. By the time they entered the home straight he was well back and coming wide on the track while the eventual winner in Sentimentalist was off on gone on the rails out in front. I think it was a total forgive run and the horse still finished the race off strongly late getting through the line nicely. I think he and Mark Zahra can redeem themselves here. The horse draws ideally in gate five and it just looks another ideal race for him. I am hoping they can roll forward on him and be positive. There are a couple of Lloyd Williams stayers which should ensure a genuine tempo but providing Mark can keep him within striking distance today I think he is clearly the horse to beat and I will back up on him again.

Betting strategy

Best of the day here Heir To The Throne! I will have $90 the win on him locking in the $3.10 as I expect him to be well supported again and start shorter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

12:40pm

Suggested

Katona (No.5), Absolute Flirt (No.9) & Taraayef (No.12)

Dangers

The Executioner (No.1) & First Responder (No.4)

Racing on this public holiday Easter Monday in Melbourne comes from Sandown Hillside for what looks to be a pretty deep meeting. There has been a bit of rain overnight in Melbourne but nothing too significant and we will be racing on a perfect surface which should have that little touch of give in it but remain in the good range. The rail is out four metres and I feel we might see horses get a bit wider on the track as the day progresses. I am kicking the day in the first race of the day which is for the two year olds over the 1000m. It is an interesting race, I think we will see a few smart ones go around here. Absolute Flirt resumes from a spell here having performed well in her debut campaign in two runs. She has had a recent jump out at Werribee which she also went quite well in and is saddled up by Danny O’Brien with Damien Oliver on board. Therein lies a pretty lethal combination in more recent times. She has come up favourite in the market this morning and I think she is well enough found but given the form the stable is in I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to have something on her. Katona beat her in that jump out and looked to do so quite impressively. He showed good speed, landed in front and I thought held his rivals quite comfortably. He looks a nice big strong colt that will most likely appreciate the wider draw here and with Williams rolling forward around one bend on the big track I think he will be hard to beat. I had him marked a lot shorter in the market and closer to Absolute Flirt so around the $7 mark I think he is a good bet. Taraayef debuts for the Hayes stable here and also looked quite impressive on the same day at those Werribee jump outs. Her jump out was in good time and she also showed good speed. Around the $9 mark I was happy to keep her on side in what I think will turn out to be a pretty handy two year old race.

Betting strategy

There has been good market support pre 9am for Katona and Taraayef which pleases me even if I did miss the price! I will have $30 the win on Katona and $25 the win on Taraayef and Absolute Flirt here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:15pm

Suggested

Elam (No.7), Not Enough Effort (No.11) & The Sisters (No.16)

Dangers

Delvecchio (No.4) & Rushford (No.12)

This is a good race this one over the 1000m. We should again see some nice horses going around. Not Enough Effort certainly made a good impression winning on debut at Sale. Off the back of a nice trial he was pretty firm in the market and jumped straight to the front and never gave any of his rivals a look in. He won easily and did so in good time for the day. There were three 1000m races that day and he was easily the quickest on them. I am going to back him in to do it again here. He should be improved by that debut outing with natural race experience and if that is the case he is going to be hard to run down here so happy to be in his corner. I am saving on a couple of resuming runners. The Sisters jumped out really well recently at Mornington and I certainly think she can be competitive here. She won well on debut in her first campaign at Mornington before taking on a pretty handy race at Flemington at just her second start and running quite well. I just like the way she quickened up in that recent jump out coming from off the speed and with natural improvement into this second campaign I think she can run well here. Elam is the one at big odds I want to have something on. This horse wasn’t far away from some handy horses last campaign. He was competitive with the likes of Toy Boy, Superhard and Sirius Suspect which all reads as pretty good form for this. He went well in a recent Sale jump out and I thought the $30 on offer in early markets looked a really big price so happy to be with him. I am scared of Delvecchio who showed so much talent in his debut campaign but I just had Not Enough Effort with the more recent run under his belt rated on top and with both pretty tight in the market I couldn’t back both.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Not Enough Effort here and I will also have $20 the win on The Sisters and $10 the win on Elam who has also been well backed with $19 now the best price after $31 was available at 6am!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

I’m Telling Ya (No.1), Nicconi Poni (No.12) & Super Hussey (No.14)

Dangers

Lecture (No.6) & Feather (No.13)

This race is over the 1300m and I am going with a bit of value here around the favourites. Lecture and Feather are certainly the two the market has come up with but I thought both were pretty tight in the market and as I said there looks to be some value around them. Super Hussey has a poor winning strike rate but is certainly racing well. She chased home the in form Begood Toya Mother last start at Cranbourne and her form prior to that was also consistent without winning. There was a big gap to the third horse last start and I liked the way she kept chasing through the line. I think this represents a winning opportunity for her despite that poor strike rate I mentioned earlier. She draws a middle gate here to get a good run off the speed and I thought around the $9-10 mark she was worth a bet here. Nicconi Poni comes down from Albury off the back of a pretty dominant win at Wagga last start in quick time. She had been racing well prior to that without winning but really put it all together last start when coming from off the speed to win well. I am hoping now that she has broken through she might go on with the job and in a race I didn’t think was overly strong I don’t mind the different form reference she brings into this. Happy to have something on her at double figure odds also. One of my old favourites in I’m Telling Ya has had three runs back from a spell this time in following along break and last start was clearly his best effort this campaign when closing off nicely behind High Ratio. On his best form he would win this race I say with a fair bit of confidence. I thought there were good signs in the last start run too so I am going to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Super Hussey here, $20 the win on Nicconi Poni and $15 the win on I'm Telling Ya!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

2:30pm

Suggested

Suretoshine (No.8) & Skyway Star (No.16)

Dangers

Dark Confidant (No.3) & She’s On Time (No.14)

I haven’t come up with any surprises here in this race punters.  I think the market has this race pretty spot on for the fillies and mares over the 1800m. Skyway Star is a horse I have been following all campaign and so far it has been a mixed bag in terms of how kind she has been to me. I bet against her first up but made a note to follow her when she ran second behind a handy horse in Hurricane Fighter who I was on that day. I then tumbled into her at Bendigo and I couldn’t believe she couldn’t run past Mrs Sippy. I then couldn’t go again at the short odds last start at Ballarat when Craig Williams rode her much more positively and ensured she got the chocolates. I love how strong she was through the line last start and that should see the 1800m suit her perfectly. She looks a filly very much on the way up and she showed her talent back in the spring when not beaten far by Aristia in the Wakeful. I think this is a really nice race for her and happy to be with her. It is interesting that Williams jumps off her and rides Suretoshine. This former New Zealand mare has been excellent in her two Australian runs. She won well at Cranbourne first up before running really well here last start chasing home Sentimentalist who ran well in the Stawell Cup yesterday. She comes back against her own sex here, draws well for Williams and I can see her improving again into this race and being really hard to beat. Happy to be with her also in what looks a pretty good two bet play in this race.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Skyway Star and $40 the win on Suretoshine!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 5

3:10pm

Suggested

Fidelia (No.9), Diamond Bliss (No.11) & Fabric (No.12)

Dangers

Vivi Valentina (No.5) & Alexandra Dreaming (No.7)

This is another deep race here for the three year old fillies over the 1300m. I think there are a few handy ones going around in this race. Fidelia’s form lines look strong. She ran really well first up in a Saturday city class race behind the handy Tasmanian in Lady Pluck. She just didn’t have the best of luck that day. She was back over towards the inside and never seemed to be able to build any real momentum. She certainly never got full momentum in my opinion. Her run looked far superior to Graceful Storm who she beat home in the race and we saw that filly win well at Caulfield on Saturday. The concern here is again that inside gate. She is certainly going to need a touch of luck finding clear galloping room from there. If she does, I think she is probably the one they all have to beat. I do think you are probably going to have a couple of heart in mouth moments in the straight or rounding the home turn. I don’t want to lose on her though should she salute so I will still have something on her. Diamond Bliss was well backed to win first up here but found a very fast run race and she was chasing up to the leaders the whole way. She looked like she was going to win 200m out but just seemed to peak on her run late on. I thought it was still a very nice return and she will certainly strip a lot fitter for that run. Mark Zahra stays with her and providing she isn’t flattened by that big first up effort which I don’t think she will be given she has had plenty of time since that effort she is going to be in the finish here. Around the $9-10 mark happy to be with her. Fabric got the maiden out of the way with a barnstorming finish at Geelong first up and might go right on with the job now. This filly showed talent in her debut campaign without winning but might have come back a much better horse this time in. Craig Williams went to Geelong to ride her in that first up win and sticks with her here and for the in form Danny O’Brien stable I can see her running a big race here so happy to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Fidelia here, $25 the win on Diamond Bliss and $20 the win on Fabric having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 8

5:10pm

Suggested

Heir To The Throne (No.4)

Dangers

Paint The Town Two (No.13) & Tavirun (No.14)

This is the last race of the day over the 1800m. Racing Twitter certainly had a bit of a blow up a couple of weeks ago about the ride of Mark Zahra on Heir To The Throne when he was a beaten favourite on this track last start. He was heavily backed that day, I was really keen on him and after jumping well and seemingly landing in a good position, Zahra just allowed himself to continue getting shuffled further back in the field. By the time they entered the home straight he was well back and coming wide on the track while the eventual winner in Sentimentalist was off on gone on the rails out in front. I think it was a total forgive run and the horse still finished the race off strongly late getting through the line nicely. I think he and Mark Zahra can redeem themselves here. The horse draws ideally in gate five and it just looks another ideal race for him. I am hoping they can roll forward on him and be positive. There are a couple of Lloyd Williams stayers which should ensure a genuine tempo but providing Mark can keep him within striking distance today I think he is clearly the horse to beat and I will back up on him again.

Betting strategy

Best of the day here Heir To The Throne! I will have $90 the win on him locking in the $3.10 as I expect him to be well supported again and start shorter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

12:40pm

Suggested

Katona (No.5), Absolute Flirt (No.9) & Taraayef (No.12)

Dangers

The Executioner (No.1) & First Responder (No.4)

Racing on this public holiday Easter Monday in Melbourne comes from Sandown Hillside for what looks to be a pretty deep meeting. There has been a bit of rain overnight in Melbourne but nothing too significant and we will be racing on a perfect surface which should have that little touch of give in it but remain in the good range. The rail is out four metres and I feel we might see horses get a bit wider on the track as the day progresses. I am kicking the day in the first race of the day which is for the two year olds over the 1000m. It is an interesting race, I think we will see a few smart ones go around here. Absolute Flirt resumes from a spell here having performed well in her debut campaign in two runs. She has had a recent jump out at Werribee which she also went quite well in and is saddled up by Danny O’Brien with Damien Oliver on board. Therein lies a pretty lethal combination in more recent times. She has come up favourite in the market this morning and I think she is well enough found but given the form the stable is in I don’t want to be losing on the race should she salute so happy to have something on her. Katona beat her in that jump out and looked to do so quite impressively. He showed good speed, landed in front and I thought held his rivals quite comfortably. He looks a nice big strong colt that will most likely appreciate the wider draw here and with Williams rolling forward around one bend on the big track I think he will be hard to beat. I had him marked a lot shorter in the market and closer to Absolute Flirt so around the $7 mark I think he is a good bet. Taraayef debuts for the Hayes stable here and also looked quite impressive on the same day at those Werribee jump outs. Her jump out was in good time and she also showed good speed. Around the $9 mark I was happy to keep her on side in what I think will turn out to be a pretty handy two year old race.

Betting strategy

There has been good market support pre 9am for Katona and Taraayef which pleases me even if I did miss the price! I will have $30 the win on Katona and $25 the win on Taraayef and Absolute Flirt here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:15pm

Suggested

Elam (No.7), Not Enough Effort (No.11) & The Sisters (No.16)

Dangers

Delvecchio (No.4) & Rushford (No.12)

This is a good race this one over the 1000m. We should again see some nice horses going around. Not Enough Effort certainly made a good impression winning on debut at Sale. Off the back of a nice trial he was pretty firm in the market and jumped straight to the front and never gave any of his rivals a look in. He won easily and did so in good time for the day. There were three 1000m races that day and he was easily the quickest on them. I am going to back him in to do it again here. He should be improved by that debut outing with natural race experience and if that is the case he is going to be hard to run down here so happy to be in his corner. I am saving on a couple of resuming runners. The Sisters jumped out really well recently at Mornington and I certainly think she can be competitive here. She won well on debut in her first campaign at Mornington before taking on a pretty handy race at Flemington at just her second start and running quite well. I just like the way she quickened up in that recent jump out coming from off the speed and with natural improvement into this second campaign I think she can run well here. Elam is the one at big odds I want to have something on. This horse wasn’t far away from some handy horses last campaign. He was competitive with the likes of Toy Boy, Superhard and Sirius Suspect which all reads as pretty good form for this. He went well in a recent Sale jump out and I thought the $30 on offer in early markets looked a really big price so happy to be with him. I am scared of Delvecchio who showed so much talent in his debut campaign but I just had Not Enough Effort with the more recent run under his belt rated on top and with both pretty tight in the market I couldn’t back both.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Not Enough Effort here and I will also have $20 the win on The Sisters and $10 the win on Elam who has also been well backed with $19 now the best price after $31 was available at 6am!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

1:50pm

Suggested

I’m Telling Ya (No.1), Nicconi Poni (No.12) & Super Hussey (No.14)

Dangers

Lecture (No.6) & Feather (No.13)

This race is over the 1300m and I am going with a bit of value here around the favourites. Lecture and Feather are certainly the two the market has come up with but I thought both were pretty tight in the market and as I said there looks to be some value around them. Super Hussey has a poor winning strike rate but is certainly racing well. She chased home the in form Begood Toya Mother last start at Cranbourne and her form prior to that was also consistent without winning. There was a big gap to the third horse last start and I liked the way she kept chasing through the line. I think this represents a winning opportunity for her despite that poor strike rate I mentioned earlier. She draws a middle gate here to get a good run off the speed and I thought around the $9-10 mark she was worth a bet here. Nicconi Poni comes down from Albury off the back of a pretty dominant win at Wagga last start in quick time. She had been racing well prior to that without winning but really put it all together last start when coming from off the speed to win well. I am hoping now that she has broken through she might go on with the job and in a race I didn’t think was overly strong I don’t mind the different form reference she brings into this. Happy to have something on her at double figure odds also. One of my old favourites in I’m Telling Ya has had three runs back from a spell this time in following along break and last start was clearly his best effort this campaign when closing off nicely behind High Ratio. On his best form he would win this race I say with a fair bit of confidence. I thought there were good signs in the last start run too so I am going to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Super Hussey here, $20 the win on Nicconi Poni and $15 the win on I'm Telling Ya!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 4

2:30pm

Suggested

Suretoshine (No.8) & Skyway Star (No.16)

Dangers

Dark Confidant (No.3) & She’s On Time (No.14)

I haven’t come up with any surprises here in this race punters.  I think the market has this race pretty spot on for the fillies and mares over the 1800m. Skyway Star is a horse I have been following all campaign and so far it has been a mixed bag in terms of how kind she has been to me. I bet against her first up but made a note to follow her when she ran second behind a handy horse in Hurricane Fighter who I was on that day. I then tumbled into her at Bendigo and I couldn’t believe she couldn’t run past Mrs Sippy. I then couldn’t go again at the short odds last start at Ballarat when Craig Williams rode her much more positively and ensured she got the chocolates. I love how strong she was through the line last start and that should see the 1800m suit her perfectly. She looks a filly very much on the way up and she showed her talent back in the spring when not beaten far by Aristia in the Wakeful. I think this is a really nice race for her and happy to be with her. It is interesting that Williams jumps off her and rides Suretoshine. This former New Zealand mare has been excellent in her two Australian runs. She won well at Cranbourne first up before running really well here last start chasing home Sentimentalist who ran well in the Stawell Cup yesterday. She comes back against her own sex here, draws well for Williams and I can see her improving again into this race and being really hard to beat. Happy to be with her also in what looks a pretty good two bet play in this race.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Skyway Star and $40 the win on Suretoshine!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 5

3:10pm

Suggested

Fidelia (No.9), Diamond Bliss (No.11) & Fabric (No.12)

Dangers

Vivi Valentina (No.5) & Alexandra Dreaming (No.7)

This is another deep race here for the three year old fillies over the 1300m. I think there are a few handy ones going around in this race. Fidelia’s form lines look strong. She ran really well first up in a Saturday city class race behind the handy Tasmanian in Lady Pluck. She just didn’t have the best of luck that day. She was back over towards the inside and never seemed to be able to build any real momentum. She certainly never got full momentum in my opinion. Her run looked far superior to Graceful Storm who she beat home in the race and we saw that filly win well at Caulfield on Saturday. The concern here is again that inside gate. She is certainly going to need a touch of luck finding clear galloping room from there. If she does, I think she is probably the one they all have to beat. I do think you are probably going to have a couple of heart in mouth moments in the straight or rounding the home turn. I don’t want to lose on her though should she salute so I will still have something on her. Diamond Bliss was well backed to win first up here but found a very fast run race and she was chasing up to the leaders the whole way. She looked like she was going to win 200m out but just seemed to peak on her run late on. I thought it was still a very nice return and she will certainly strip a lot fitter for that run. Mark Zahra stays with her and providing she isn’t flattened by that big first up effort which I don’t think she will be given she has had plenty of time since that effort she is going to be in the finish here. Around the $9-10 mark happy to be with her. Fabric got the maiden out of the way with a barnstorming finish at Geelong first up and might go right on with the job now. This filly showed talent in her debut campaign without winning but might have come back a much better horse this time in. Craig Williams went to Geelong to ride her in that first up win and sticks with her here and for the in form Danny O’Brien stable I can see her running a big race here so happy to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Fidelia here, $25 the win on Diamond Bliss and $20 the win on Fabric having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 8

5:10pm

Suggested

Heir To The Throne (No.4)

Dangers

Paint The Town Two (No.13) & Tavirun (No.14)

This is the last race of the day over the 1800m. Racing Twitter certainly had a bit of a blow up a couple of weeks ago about the ride of Mark Zahra on Heir To The Throne when he was a beaten favourite on this track last start. He was heavily backed that day, I was really keen on him and after jumping well and seemingly landing in a good position, Zahra just allowed himself to continue getting shuffled further back in the field. By the time they entered the home straight he was well back and coming wide on the track while the eventual winner in Sentimentalist was off on gone on the rails out in front. I think it was a total forgive run and the horse still finished the race off strongly late getting through the line nicely. I think he and Mark Zahra can redeem themselves here. The horse draws ideally in gate five and it just looks another ideal race for him. I am hoping they can roll forward on him and be positive. There are a couple of Lloyd Williams stayers which should ensure a genuine tempo but providing Mark can keep him within striking distance today I think he is clearly the horse to beat and I will back up on him again.

Betting strategy

Best of the day here Heir To The Throne! I will have $90 the win on him locking in the $3.10 as I expect him to be well supported again and start shorter!

Race Outlay

$90

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