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Race 2

12:30pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Seven Year Reward (No.7) & Akkadian (No.8)

Dangers

William Thomas (No.5) & Delvecchio (No.13)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for once we have a bit of rain about in Melbourne town. We have had a bit during the week and the track is in the soft range. Caulfield drains amazingly well though and some sunshine on Saturday might see it get pretty close to good. I think it will stay in the soft range though and we will be looking for horses that will appreciate that little bit of give. The rail is out ten metres so I wouldn’t be surprised if a fair bit of the track is used with that give in it. I am kicking off the day in the second race which is over the 1100m. I thought this race was fairly open. There certainly looks to be some good speed engaged. I thought that might set it up for Akkadian sitting off the pace coming back in trip to be really strong at the end of the race. This three year old resumed with a strong win at Pakenham first up before going to the 1400m second up and running fairly in a listed race in Adelaide. He is a horse that has been quite dynamic coming off a strong speed over shorter trips and with the blinkers on here with a good speed up front I think he looks really dangerous with Williams on board. Around that $8 mark I think he is worth a ticket here. Like To Think So is a handy horse resuming from a spell here. His form last preparation around the likes of Debt Collector, Haunted and Bravo Tango certainly read well for a race of this nature. He had a recent jump out at Bendigo and he went like a rocket there easily despatching of his rivals by a big margin. He is a horse that typically races well fresh and while 1100m maybe short of his best trip, the way he went in that jump out suggests to me he can sprint really well fresh so keen to be in his corner at the double figure odds. Seven Year Reward comes through the Propelle race which a few others do in this race. He fought on well in that race after being wide on speed. I am hoping that from an inside gate here he might be able to land on speed either leading or outside the leader and from there could prove hard to get past with a bit of race fitness on side so will have something on him at double figure odds. I have no doubt William Thomas and Delvecchio are probably the best two horses in the race but both draw wide and will be well back so I think they are a bit of a risk at their respective prices so happy to play around them with a couple of other runners at odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Akkadian here and save with $15 the win on both Like To Think So and Seven Year Reward!

Race Outlay

$55

Race 3

1:05pm

Suggested

Zoutori (No.1), I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.9) & Shandy (No.10)

Dangers

Orcein (No.4)

This race is over the mile for the three year olds. Zoutori has benefited from a couple of perfect runs in transit at his last two starts and only two starts for this campaign and won impressively. The slight concern with him coming into this race is that fact that he has had a dream run in transit. Last start at Flemington he was just given a gun ride by Williams and duly saluted. He has a few things that punters may see as being against him here. He steps up to the mile he rises to 60kgs and there is obviously that potential for him to not get the perfect run. In saying that I think he is a horse that is just going to continue to improve through the campaign. He draws a middle gate again for Williams and despite the rise in weight and trip I think he is still the horse they all have to beat so I don’t want to lose on the race should he salute. I am certainly not as keen as I was at Flemington though. The stable mate Shandy is deep into her debut campaign but seems to be improving with each and every run. She is a big danger here. She ran well on debut before winning her maiden at her second start. She then beat all bar Big Night Out who she meets again here and was a fraction unlucky behind Tarwin here last start in a race quite a few horses here come through. I think she will appreciate drawing a bit wider on the track in clear galloping room and if she can get into a good spot in running she will be finishing off strongly late. Happy to be with her. The best roughy in the race might be the resuming I’m Dun Dreamin’. This galloper won on debut at massive odds at Cranbourne back in August before doing a fair bit of work in the run at his second start at Sale when running fifth. He was immediately spelled post that run. He had a jump out at Ballarat back in March which he looked to go particularly well in. I haven’t seen a jump out since but I know a few good judges I speak with are quite keen on his chances in this race if he is fit enough. The market will probably tell a tale but if the money does come for him I think it will be a sign he will run a big race. Around that $15-20 mark I am happy to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

Big Night Out's scratching has really taken the fat out of this market! Zoutori is pretty short now! I will have $50 the win on him, $25 the win on Shandy and $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' but the race has lost some punting luster now!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 4

1:40pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.2), Kazio (No.6) & Riyadh (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.5) & He Exscels (No.8)

Gee, this is a tricky race. I struggled to wrap my head around this one. It is over the mile and there is a small field but there are a heap of winning chances. I was pretty disappointed in Mahamedeis last start but I am going to back up on him here. I think the mile might be his best trip. His three runs prior to the last start failure this campaign were all excellent. He finished well back first up but the run was actually better than it looked. He was then very unlucky second up at Bendigo in the Golden Mile before winning well here at his third up run. Like I said, I was quite keen on him last start but he was really plain. I am going to give him another chance back to the mile here as I think if he runs up to those previous runs here he will be hard to roll. Kazio is another that is racing really well this time in and is pretty deep into what has been a long campaign. I just think this race might pan out well for him. He looks one of the few horses in the race that might be capable of taking up the running and owning it from the front. I think that might be the big advantage for him. He was beaten by Widgee Turf at level weights last start which is a pretty good reference for a race like this. While his form here at the track and form over the mile doesn’t read particularly well, I doubt he would have found a race set up as well for him in that time. He has an in form Brett Prebble on board who is very much in the zone at the moment and happy to be with him. The best roughy in the race for mine is clearly Riyadh. This horse has really good third up form and his two runs back from a spell this time in have been really good. He carried big weights at both those runs at Pakenham and here last start. He gets significant weight relief here dropping down to 52kgs after the claim for Michael Poy. His mile record is good and that third up record as I mentioned suggests he might be ready to deliver a peak performance for the campaign here. At double figure odds happy to have something on him. I am obviously worried about Guizot who looks to be flying but gee, that was his race at The Bool and he got the job done, but this is a bit harder so happy to just play around him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Mahamedeis and Kazio here and $15 the win on Riyadh!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

3:40pm

Suggested

Lady Vega (No.6), Bam’s On Fire (No.10), Delusions (No.11) & The Commoner (No.13)

Dangers

Propelle (No.1) & Notation (No.4)

This is another good race here for the three year old fillies over the 1100m. There look to be a host of winning chances in this race. Propelle has come up the favourite in the race off the back of a dominant win last start but I thought she might be worth taking on here. She shoots up in weight, draws wide and might be spotting a few of these a start. I think there might be a few handy ones amongst her rivals too. Bam’s On Fire is a really interesting runner in my opinion. This filly raced in Perth as a two year old against some of the better horses in that part of the world and was quite competitive. She then made her way to Victoria and into the Ciaron Maher stables but was beaten comfortably at her first run here by the promising Leiter when a $1.50 favourite at Bendigo back in November. She was immediately spelled following that run and resumed at Benalla a couple of weeks ago where she absolutely bolted in her maiden. It was a track gallop and she won by a big margin with plenty in hand and the time was comparable to other races over that same distance on the day. She draws to land on speed here and I think she will be hard to beat. The only issue is she is down to race at Scone and Morphettville as well as here. I am hoping she comes here as I think she will be hard to beat and happy to be with her. Her stable mate Delusions is another horse I think can run well here. She may prove to be the reason that Bam’s On Fire goes interstate as the stable may want to separate them. Delusions is an interesting runner. She won impressively at Swan Hill on debut and then went to Caulfield on Caulfield Cup Day and started favourite in a race there. She ran poorly and was immediately spelled post that run. I loved her recent Cranbourne trial though. I thought she had plenty more to give and looked really strong through the line. She draws a nice barrier here to get a good run just off the speed and at double figure odds I think she is worth a bet here. The Commoner is another interesting runner here. She won well on debut at Cranbourne back in early March when leading all the way and winning by a big margin. Since then she has been back to the jump outs at Flemington recently and gone particularly well. She has no weight on her back, has a low barrier draw to jump on the bunny and she might prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner. Lady Vega is the other horse I want to be on in the race. She resumed from a spell with a good win at Ballarat and then was good last week at Flemington I thought. She loomed to win that race but seemed to just peak on her run late. I like her on the quick back up here and she is a pretty talented horse in my opinion so happy to have something on her at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bam's On Fire, $25 the win on The Commoner, $15 the win on Delusions and $10 the win on Vega Magic here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:20pm

Suggested

Leonardo da Hinchi (No.8)

Dangers

Jungle Edge (No.1) & Blaze Forth (No.5)

This looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. It is interesting mainly because of the appearance of this very smart galloper in Leonardo Da Hinchi who makes his debut for the Mick Price stable after formerly being in the Weir camp. His form around Brutal and The Autumn Sun through that three year old spring campaign certainly reads well for a race of this nature. This just looks a really good race for him. He strikes a field of sprinters that have been to the well a few times and he comes in as the horse very much untapped and on the rise. That was just his first racing campaign in the spring and he performed particularly well. With natural improvement from that campaign into his second one here you can only think he is going to come back a better horse this time in. If he does that, this race looks to be at his mercy. He has a few races in Brisbane that he is being targeted for and if he is to measure up in those bigger races there then he is going to want to be winning this. It isn’t a field of vintage sprinters. Jungle Edge is a bit like a vintage red wine however but I would expect Leonardo Da Hinchi to have his measure with even luck in the race. Adding to the confidence I have in him is the fact that he has jumped out really well down at Terang where he has been stabled with Beetroot Williams. He towelled up a field of gallopers in his most recent jump out down there. A few of those gallopers went to The Bool and performed particularly well too. There is a lot to like. I like the fact he is drawn out and I think if Michael Dee can have him in a nice trailing position with cover peeling out wide with full momentum he should be able to get over the top of them. He only has 54kgs on his back and I think the $3 on offer at the moment probably won’t be there on race day. He looks to be just about the best of the day in the country to me. Keen.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Leonardo Da Hinchi here having half now at the $3 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 1

12:15pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.1)

Dangers

Wild Planet (No.2) & Signore Fox (No.3)

The main race meeting in New South Wales this Saturday comes from Scone for what has become their big two day carnival. It starts with the Cup on Friday (I will tweet out a couple I like on that program) and ends with the big stand alone Saturday program. It is another strong meeting. Scone is an interesting track. Typically by the second day it is no disadvantage to be coming away from the fence and wider draws aren’t really disadvantaged. It is a big long straight and most if not all horses get their chance. It is a good meeting likely to be on a good track looking at the forecast and hopefully there are a few winners for us. I am kicking off in the first race of the day which is strangely enough one of the feature races of the day in the Inglis Guineas for the three year olds. It is only a small field of nine but it looks a competitive race. Military Zone kept his unbeaten second up record in tact last start with a strong win in the Hawkesbury Guineas. I thought there was plenty of merit to the win. He came from off the speed, rounded up the leaders and then had to hold off the talented Trope who had the last shot at him. They put a gap on the rest of the field and I think that gives real merit to the victory. I see no reason why he won’t win again. He comes up against a couple of runners through different form lines who do look dangerous here in Wild Planet and Signore Fox. Wild Planet has been brave in defeat at his two runs this time in off tough runs while Signore Fox won easily at Hawkesbury in a weaker race on the same day Military Zone won. I am just of the opinion that Military Zone is a good horse in the zone on the way up and if this track is favouring horses getting out wider then him being back off the speed from the outside draw won’t be an issue. Happy to be with him to start the day here.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Military Zone here to kick the day off!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Southern Lad (No.5), Wagner (No.6) & Anna’s Joy (No.8)

Dangers

Star Crossed (No.10) & Jack’s Bar (No.18)

This race draws a big field every year. It is a sprint race over the 1100m and it is always one of the more wide open races of the carnival. I did think that this year it perhaps had a pretty long tail and that perhaps the value was with those horses that were well in the market. Wagner is the horse that I certainly think looks hardest to beat. His form this time in has been solid and I think he finds a really winnable race here. He won well first up on the Kensington track before taking on that fast race won by Krone featuring Wild Planet and Classique Legend at Rosehill. He then wasn’t beaten far by Americana Magic one of his rivals in this race at Gosford two starts back before an excellent run at Hawkesbury last start behind Signore Fox. They really went along at a solid tempo in that race and he was up there making that speed. He stuck on well to run second. That race was over the 1300m and I think coming back to the 1100m here on the big Scone track is a big plus for him. His record at this trip is excellent and even though most of those runs have come when he was fresh I think this race sets up well for him. He draws a nice middle gate for Tommy Berry to settle just off the speed and that should see him hard to beat with even luck. Happy to be with him Southern Lad was an interesting run first up at Randwick over the 1000m. I backed him that day off a really nice trial and I thought halfway down the straight he was going to gobble his rivals up. He just seemed to peak on his run 100m from home. He was carrying a big weight there first up chasing a fast tempo for most of the way and he was also a big drifter in the market which suggested he might be in need of the run. I am hoping with that run under the belt he will strip a lot fitter here and hopefully finish the race off with a bit more gusto. He gets good weight relief after the claim for Billy Owen and the extra 100m in trip should be to his liking. He draws wide so he is going to be well back and is another that will be hoping that the track is suiting that type of runner. I think if he has gone on from that first up run he will be right in the thick of things here as he is a talented galloper that I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. Happy to be with him also. The other runner I will save on in the race is Anna’s Joy. This mare ran super in the Wagga Town Plate last Thursday. She was just in behind the leaders in that race and went back to the inside to try and finish the race off. By that stage of the day horses seemed to be appreciating getting a bit wider on the track and I am not sure she was in the best ground. She stuck to her task well though to be beaten just over a length. Back to the 1100m here I think suits and I don’t see this race being too much tougher if tougher at all than that Wagga Town Plate. I think if she can reproduce a run to that level she will be in the finish and around the $15 mark looks a good bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wagner, $25 the win on Southern Lad and $15 the win on Anna's Joy!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 6

3:25pm

Suggested

Deploy (No.1), Brave Song (No.3) & Resin (No.7)

Dangers

Trekking (No.2) & Redouble (No.6)

This is the Luskin Star Stakes over the 1300m at listed level and this race has drawn together a really competitive field. This race does bat deep. There are quite a few winning chances here. The main form reference looks to be the race won by Trekking on the final day of The Championships at Randwick. Trekking was just that little bit closer in the run than Brave Song and Redouble who closed off strongly but were ultimately unable to run down Trekking. Trekking was second up into that race whereas Brave Song was coming into it second up and I am just banking on there perhaps being a bit more improvement in Brave Song coming into this race. Brave Song did beat Trekking at Caulfield back in the spring when Trekking drew an inside gate and was boxed away and Brave Song got the luck and won well. Brave Song draws out here and Trekking draws in and I am just hoping that Trekking might find a bit of trouble and that Brave Song can storm down the middle of the track and hopefully have full momentum and get that advantage. There isn’t much between them but at nearly double the price I think Brave Song is well worth a bet here. Keen to be with him. I think Resin is a massive chance in the race. This mare has raced really well in her three runs this campaign without the best of luck in my opinion. She was wide and handy to the speed in the first two runs of her campaign and did plenty of work in the run. She was just touched off in both of those after looking the winner. She then went into that race won by White Moss which was run at a crazy speed and she was probably just taken out of her comfort zone in that race. Since that run she has been freshened up and gone back to the trials and looked very impressive at Hawkesbury where she was strangled over the line but still won nicely. I like the fact for her that she is drawn gate one even though the track might not be suiting that draw. I think for her though it gives her a chance to be ridden with a smother and then be produced to have one crack at them and I think she will race more effectively that day. If she gets the breaks in running and can get to the right part of the track then she should prove hard to hold out. Around the $8-9 mark I think she is a really good bet in the race. My old mate Deploy also goes around off the back off a couple of good trials. This is a race well within his grasp and I won’t want to be losing on the race should he salute. He is good double figure odds and well worth saving on in my opinion.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Brave Song here, $25 the win on Resin and $15 the win on Deploy!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

4:05pm

Suggested

Zumbelina (No.7), Aqua D’ivina (No.10), Into The Abyss (No.11) & Asharani (No.14)

Dangers

Savatiano (No.3) & Moss Trip (No.6)

This is another race that looks wide open and looks to have plenty of chances. It is for the fillies and mares at Group Three level over the 1400m. I am playing around the favourites to some extent here. The one horse that is well in the market that I want to be with is Into The Abyss. Gee, she deserves to win a race does this filly. She is knocking on the door. She has clearly come back very well this time in. her first up run was good enough off a good trial before she really improved second up when just touched off by Multaja. She followed that up with a most unlucky second two weeks later at Randwick where she clearly should have won with even luck. The issue here is she again draws gate one and will need a touch of luck. She is a filly that settles off the pace and Glyn is a rider that can sometimes look for luck and go for the magic run rather than play the percentages. If the breaks come her way though I think she has her hoof right on the till. She is not too deep into her campaign whereas some of the other horses like Princess Posh, Savatiano and Siren’s Fury have been up for a little while now so I think there is more to come from Into The Abyss and with even luck she can be winning here. The other three horses I am backing all seem to be decent odds. Zumbelina should be ready now at her third run back from a spell. She has been solid if not spectacular in her two runs back but they have both been really solidly run races that have been owned by horses up on speed. She has struggled to get into those races. I feel this race may set up more favourably for a horse to come off the pace. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but I would expect her to be pretty close to her peak here third up and am expecting an improved run. She has come up around the $21 in the early markets and looks well worth a bet at that price. Aqua D’ivina resumed in the same race Zumbelina ran in last start but was only first up. She just got ran off her feet. I thought she found the line well enough without ever really looking like a winning chance. She is another I would expect to improve significantly here second up. The question mark with her is that she might be just looking for that little bit more ground now she is a bit more seasoned but if the speed is on and there is the chance for something running on to come over the top she does have a touch of quality about her. Around the $15 mark she looks worth a bet also. Asharani is the other horse I am going to have something on. She wasn’t too far off Into The Abyss last start in that race they both contested at Randwick. She got back along the inside and tried to track Into The Abyss through but found some similar traffic problems. I thought she went through the line really strongly. She is about two and a half times the price of Into The Abyss in this market and I don’t think there should be that much discrepancy. At those odds I think she is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

The $7 with TopBetta about Into The Abyss is good value for mine and will lock that in and have $30 the win on her! I will also have $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina and Asharani and $10 the win on Zumbelina!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 8

4:45pm

Suggested

Viridine (No.2) & Victorem (No.3)

Dangers

Dothraki (No.1) & Guard Of Honour (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on here. It is over the 1100m for the sprinters. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I tweeted about this race on Thursday morning and was pretty bullish that either Viridine or Victorem should be winning this race. They just look to have a fair bit on their opposition here. Viridine hasn’t won for a while but this is probably the weakest race he has contested for some time. He has been competing against some top class sprinters in good company and probably just hasn’t measured up. He hasn’t had the best of luck in a few of those races either. Even last start when he looked to get into a winnable race which was won by Trekking he just didn’t quite get clear running when he needed it to be able to build any momentum. I thought he probably went through the line with something more to give. I think he should avoid any traffic issues. The big Scone track should suit him perfectly and from a middle gate for Jason Collett he looks really well placed. This is probably d-day for him but you aren’t taking a ridiculously short price about him. He is $4+ in the market and if he runs to his best with even luck that price may look a real spoil. Happy to be with him. I probably do lean just slightly to Victorem. This is a race featuring a few horses that have been around the block a few times. Even the horse I just spoke about Virdiine has had a few chances and probably isn’t on the up anymore. This horse Victorem may very well still be on an upward spiral. He started to put it together last campaign particularly over the summer months in Brisbane when he ran some strong races. A couple of those were without luck but his win the listed Lough Neagh was dominant and the win of a good horse. He has had a good break since his last run at the end of December and has had two trials to get him ready for this first up assignment. He hasn’t trialled against much in those trials at Port Macquarie and Taree but he has looked very impressive in both of them. The pleasing thing is that he has jumped really well in both of those. If he can become a horse that can really take up a position on speed and sprint off it he is going to be very dangerous. This is a good test for him first up. He looks ready to go off the two trials and if he is going to take the step up this campaign to the next level then he probably wants to beat these in my opinion. Providing Ben Looker can get him into a good position from the middle to wide gate, hopefully tracking up with some cover in clear galloping room then he is going to be very hard to hold out. Keen to be with him and with the two of them at $4+ I think it is a super two bet play.

Betting strategy

The $4.60 about Victorem looks an absolute spoil with BetEasy and can see him starting much shorter than that! I will have $50 the win on him at that price and $40 the win on Viridine!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

11:25am

Suggested

Femme Fireball (No.2), Of The Day (No.3) & Mishani Electra (No.7)

Dangers

River Racer (No.1) & Awake The Stars (No.4)

Group One racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben this Saturday for the big Doomben 10,000 meeting as the winter carnival really starts to heat up. The weather as it generally does at this time of year in Brisbane is turning it on too. As a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday for what looks a really good day of racing. I am going to kick the day off in the first race for the fillies and mares which looks a pretty wide open affair. The main chances certainly look to be up towards the top of the market but given how open the race is there is plenty of value in those horses in my opnion. Certainly the horse for mine that looked to go up early overs in that market was Mishani Electra. This mare was formerly with Ben Currie and now finds herself in the Les Ross stables at Eagle Farm. Her form last campaign was really strong and she comes into this race first up. Ironically for a 1200m race this is a race that looked to lack a bit for early speed and a natural leader. She certainly fits that bill and for that reason I think she is well set up. She gets first look at a Doomben track rated as good with the rail in the true position from gate one and she should jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Happy to be with her. I am keeping a couple of other resuming mares on side. Of The Day finds a pretty winnable Class 6 race here. This is a mare that raced in listed company last campaign predominantly and was probably at the end of her campaign when she dropped back to this grade at her final run of the campaign. She wasn’t beaten far in that against the males. She resumes here against her own sex from a good draw with James McDonald engaged. That for me is all positive and indicates she might be ready to rumble first up. If James can hold a position on her close enough to the speed from that good draw and make use of it then she should be hard to hold out. Happy to be with her. I can’t leave Femme Fireball out of the equation. She is a very talented mare on her day and potentially the best horse in the race. This won’t be an easy assignment though first up around Doomben. She draws out and will most likely be spotting her rivals a pretty handy start. It is just whether she can get herself within striking distance or not. If she is within touch coming to the home turn and can have the leaders in her sight she could be hard to hold out. She has a big finish on her on her day. The thing that does have me confident about her running well is that she was very good in the early stages of her last campaign. If she returns this time around in the same vein, then I think this is a winnable race for her. I probably lean to the other two just ahead of her but don’t want to be losing should she salute.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Mishani Electra locking in the $7 about her! I will also have $20 the win on Of The Day and Femme Fireball!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Multaja (No.12)

Dangers

Racecourse Road (No.3) & Vega One (No.4)

This race is for the three year olds over the 1350m. We typically find that the Sydney carnival holds up in Brisbane at this time of year and for that reason I am pretty keen to back Multaja here in this race despite the short odds. She certainly doesn’t look to strike any world beaters in this race. Her form this time in has been excellent. She just got a bit too far back first up at Moonee Valley when she was well backed before returning to Sydney and stringing together two excellent wins. She won easily at Hawkesbury as favourite before winning the last race on Derby Day at Randwick. She then just got a bit too far back at Hawkesbury in a race that was dominated on speed and eventually won by Irithea. This just looks an ideal assignment for her. She draws gate five for Kerrin McEvoy to land just off the speed in a stalking position and from there she should be really hard to hold out. She is in the red, but around the $1.80-90 mark which to me looks a real spoil. The only doubt if any that I have is perhaps her ability to run a strong 1350m. Given how well she hit the line at Hawkesbury over the 1300m though I am confident she can handle that so happy to be with her here and think anything around that $1.80 mark or more is a good enough price.

Betting strategy

I will have $105 the win on Multaja here having half now at the $1.95 and the other half at Top Fluc tomorrow!

Race Outlay

$105

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Dealmaker (No.1) & The Golden Hand (No.9)

Dangers

Trusty Lad (No.2) & Purple Sector (No.4)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and again I am going to side with that Sydney carnival form to come to the fore. Until I see evidence otherwise at this Brisbane carnival I am pretty content in trusting that form to shine through. Dealmaker and Purple Sector are the two gallopers that bring that Sydney form here having come through the Carbine Club and Packer Plate at their last two starts. Dealmaker has had the better of Purple Sector in both of those races and I would expect him to do so again here. He does need to get another win on the board though. He is becoming a bit of a costly one for punters. He now only has the one win from thirteen starts but until his last couple of runs he had been racing in some of the top company. He had raced in the Australian and Rosehill Guineas and you only have to look at his Australian Guineas run where he was only just over two lengths off Mystic Journey to see that he is a horse of quality. I think this race easily represents the best chance for him to win a race this campaign. He draws gate two for James McDonald so he should get a lovely run in transit and from there he just needs the breaks to come his way and he should be right in the finish. Happy to be with him. I am going to save on The Golden Hind who is a horse going through the grades here in Queensland and might just have that little bit of x-factor about him. He is certainly the horse on the way up. He got the job done two starts back over the 1400m at the Sunshine Coast to break his maiden before getting up to the mile last Sunday and beating his rivals into submission with a near ten length victory. I just think he might be the horse that can take it to the next level here and as a result will save on him at the double figure odds just in case. I think unless Dealmaker has come to the end of his campaign or strikes some bad luck from the inside draw though he should be winning.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Dealmaker here and save with $15 the win on The Golden Hind!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8 - Doomben 10,000

3:50pm

Suggested

Osborne Bulls (No.1) & The Bostonian (No.8)

Dangers

Nature Strip (No.2) & Champagne Cuddles (No.11)

This is the big race of the day punters. It is the Group One Doomben 10,000 over the 1200m at Doomben. It promises to be a fascinating race. There looks to be a lot of speed that is for sure. Any race that features Nature Strip certainly has a lot of speed in it. He looks like he will have some company here. Nothing will match him for early speed but the likes of I’m A Rippa, Dollar For Dollar and White Moss will all push forward and keep him rolling. I don’t mind Nature Strip drawing out. I think that is a big advantage for him. He can sometimes be a fraction slow initially out of the gates before he builds the revs and really gets into his work. For that reason an outside draw is preferable to an inside draw. The question is can he run out a strong 1200m? I have no doubt Doomben is a good track for him but there has to be a bit of a question mark on him at the end of the 1200m. For that reason I am giving Osborne Bulls one last chance. He certainly isn’t running badly, he just keeps finding one better. This is certainly in terms of the races he has contested this campaign, the weakest. He draws in gate four so I am hoping Kerrin McEvoy can hold him just that little bit closer to the speed. I think if he can be within striking distance coming into the straight and the breaks come his way that he will be capable of getting over the top of them. At the better price than Nature Strip I think he is worth a bet as I really can’t split them and if anything probably had Osborne Bulls rated a little bit shorter. Keen to be with him, for one last time maybe. I think I said that last time. Let’s hope this is his day. The horse I am saving on in the race is The Bostonian. This New Zealand galloper raced really well here in Queensland last winter and returns for the first time since then. He raced well through his recent New Zealand campaign without ever really hitting any great heights. The key here is that he comes into the race first up. He is unbeaten in four first up runs, his 1200m record is strong and he was dominant in his only run here at Doomben. This is undoubtedly his toughest test but he draws well to get a suck run on the speed and I think at $51 you can have worse bets than that.

Betting strategy

There is good support for Osborne Bulls and I will lock in the $3.40 with QLD TAB Fixed odds and have $65 the win on him! I will save with $5 the win on The Bostonian at the $61 with the same outlet and also have $10 the place on him at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:16pm

Suggested

Arkham Knight (No.1) & Debt Collector (No.4)

Dangers

Vinland (No.3) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.5)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday with the running of the South Australian Derby at Morphettville. The rains have arrived in Adelaide and as a result we will be racing on a soft track on Saturday. This week’s meeting certainly doesn’t look as strong as what last week’s was and as a result I have just found a couple of races to bet into. I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m. I am pretty keen on Debt Collector here. I have been following this galloper for a little while now and been on him at both runs this campaign. He has performed well in both those runs but just had little luck. He has been caught wide and back and probably don’t a bit too much work in the run covering ground which has dulled his typically dynamic fashion. I think he can bounce back here though. He finally draws an inside gate and while he will need luck from that gate for Dwayne Dunn, I think it will suit his racing style. He can be smothered up in behind them and produced for that one big finish where he is most effective. He comes into the race third up as I mentioned and given that he should prove hard to hold out. Keen to be in his corner. The horse I am saving on is Arkham Knight. He is another that has been really good in both runs this time in. He ran third in a listed race last start and comes back to a Benchmark 86 here on Saturday. While he goes up in weight I think he looks well placed. Like Debt Collector he comes into the race third up from a spell and will certainly appreciate the soft conditions. He won a pretty wet track at The Bool last May and his overall soft track form record reads well. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and around the $9-10 mark I think he is an excellent bet here.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Debt Collector and save with $20 the win on Arkham Knight here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7 - South Australian Derby

4:36pm

Suggested

Declarationofheart (No.3), Classic Weiwei (No.6), Mangione (No.10) & Qafila (No.16)

Dangers

Chapada (No.1), Mr Quickie (No.2) & Ridgewood Drive (No.8)

This is a wide open South Australian Derby as you can tell from the number of horses that I have mentioned above. It isn’t a race I want to really tumble into too many of the favourites in and as such was happy to play it a little bit wider with a few at odds. I am hoping the form from The Chairman’s here two weeks ago holds up. I thought Declarationofheart’s win in that race was super. He looked in a bit of trouble coming to the home turn when he was stuck back in traffic inside horses with a wall of horses in front of him but he found a way through and was really strong through the line. That win followed a solid run in the Derby in Sydney. I think that will hold him in good stead for a race of this nature. He draws ideally for Clayton Douglas to get a gun run in behind the speed and while there is the soft track question mark, if he handles it I think he will be hard to beat so happy to be with him. The emerging horse in the race might be Classic Weiwei who made up a ton of ground from the back of the field in that same race behind Declarationofheart. He is the lightly raced horse going through the grades on the way up. He got a long way back last start and hit the line strongly as he did in his previous start win. He is another that is unproven on a wet track but if he handles it he looks certain to run the trip right out. He draws wide so he will be back in the run but I would expect him to be really hitting the line and around the $20 mark he looks a good bet to me. The three year old fillies have been very strong this year and for that reason I want to keep Qafila on side who was a big run last week behind Princess Jenni. She just got a bit too far back and hit the line really strongly. Her run in the Oaks in the spring in Melbourne was also quite good when covering a heap of extra ground the entire journey. She draws a nice middle gate here and as I said the form of the fillies against the boys right throughout the season in these three year old races gives me a lot of confidence that she can run well here. At double figure odds on the week’s back up I am happy to have something on her here. The other horse at big odds I am going to back is Mangione. Chris Waller brings this horse over from Sydney after being beaten as an odds on favourite last start on the Kensington track. If you go back three starts this horse wasn’t too far behind the Derby winner in Sydney in Angel Of Truth and given that form reference you can relate him to Declarationofheart. He has the blinkers go on here from an inside gate with Dwayne Dunn on board and already has a couple of soft track wins to his credit. Given all that I thought he was probably over the odds around that $30-40 mark in early markets. At those odds I certainly think he is worth a small ticket. The chances obviously don’t end there. ChapadaMr Quickie and Ridgewood Drive are well in the market and all great winning chances but I am just going to play the race a little wider and hope to get a result.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Declarationofheart, $20 the win on Qafila and $10 the win on both Classic Weiwei and Mangione!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:30pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Seven Year Reward (No.7) & Akkadian (No.8)

Dangers

William Thomas (No.5) & Delvecchio (No.13)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for once we have a bit of rain about in Melbourne town. We have had a bit during the week and the track is in the soft range. Caulfield drains amazingly well though and some sunshine on Saturday might see it get pretty close to good. I think it will stay in the soft range though and we will be looking for horses that will appreciate that little bit of give. The rail is out ten metres so I wouldn’t be surprised if a fair bit of the track is used with that give in it. I am kicking off the day in the second race which is over the 1100m. I thought this race was fairly open. There certainly looks to be some good speed engaged. I thought that might set it up for Akkadian sitting off the pace coming back in trip to be really strong at the end of the race. This three year old resumed with a strong win at Pakenham first up before going to the 1400m second up and running fairly in a listed race in Adelaide. He is a horse that has been quite dynamic coming off a strong speed over shorter trips and with the blinkers on here with a good speed up front I think he looks really dangerous with Williams on board. Around that $8 mark I think he is worth a ticket here. Like To Think So is a handy horse resuming from a spell here. His form last preparation around the likes of Debt Collector, Haunted and Bravo Tango certainly read well for a race of this nature. He had a recent jump out at Bendigo and he went like a rocket there easily despatching of his rivals by a big margin. He is a horse that typically races well fresh and while 1100m maybe short of his best trip, the way he went in that jump out suggests to me he can sprint really well fresh so keen to be in his corner at the double figure odds. Seven Year Reward comes through the Propelle race which a few others do in this race. He fought on well in that race after being wide on speed. I am hoping that from an inside gate here he might be able to land on speed either leading or outside the leader and from there could prove hard to get past with a bit of race fitness on side so will have something on him at double figure odds. I have no doubt William Thomas and Delvecchio are probably the best two horses in the race but both draw wide and will be well back so I think they are a bit of a risk at their respective prices so happy to play around them with a couple of other runners at odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Akkadian here and save with $15 the win on both Like To Think So and Seven Year Reward!

Race Outlay

$55

Race 3

1:05pm

Suggested

Zoutori (No.1), I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.9) & Shandy (No.10)

Dangers

Orcein (No.4)

This race is over the mile for the three year olds. Zoutori has benefited from a couple of perfect runs in transit at his last two starts and only two starts for this campaign and won impressively. The slight concern with him coming into this race is that fact that he has had a dream run in transit. Last start at Flemington he was just given a gun ride by Williams and duly saluted. He has a few things that punters may see as being against him here. He steps up to the mile he rises to 60kgs and there is obviously that potential for him to not get the perfect run. In saying that I think he is a horse that is just going to continue to improve through the campaign. He draws a middle gate again for Williams and despite the rise in weight and trip I think he is still the horse they all have to beat so I don’t want to lose on the race should he salute. I am certainly not as keen as I was at Flemington though. The stable mate Shandy is deep into her debut campaign but seems to be improving with each and every run. She is a big danger here. She ran well on debut before winning her maiden at her second start. She then beat all bar Big Night Out who she meets again here and was a fraction unlucky behind Tarwin here last start in a race quite a few horses here come through. I think she will appreciate drawing a bit wider on the track in clear galloping room and if she can get into a good spot in running she will be finishing off strongly late. Happy to be with her. The best roughy in the race might be the resuming I’m Dun Dreamin’. This galloper won on debut at massive odds at Cranbourne back in August before doing a fair bit of work in the run at his second start at Sale when running fifth. He was immediately spelled post that run. He had a jump out at Ballarat back in March which he looked to go particularly well in. I haven’t seen a jump out since but I know a few good judges I speak with are quite keen on his chances in this race if he is fit enough. The market will probably tell a tale but if the money does come for him I think it will be a sign he will run a big race. Around that $15-20 mark I am happy to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

Big Night Out's scratching has really taken the fat out of this market! Zoutori is pretty short now! I will have $50 the win on him, $25 the win on Shandy and $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' but the race has lost some punting luster now!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 4

1:40pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.2), Kazio (No.6) & Riyadh (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.5) & He Exscels (No.8)

Gee, this is a tricky race. I struggled to wrap my head around this one. It is over the mile and there is a small field but there are a heap of winning chances. I was pretty disappointed in Mahamedeis last start but I am going to back up on him here. I think the mile might be his best trip. His three runs prior to the last start failure this campaign were all excellent. He finished well back first up but the run was actually better than it looked. He was then very unlucky second up at Bendigo in the Golden Mile before winning well here at his third up run. Like I said, I was quite keen on him last start but he was really plain. I am going to give him another chance back to the mile here as I think if he runs up to those previous runs here he will be hard to roll. Kazio is another that is racing really well this time in and is pretty deep into what has been a long campaign. I just think this race might pan out well for him. He looks one of the few horses in the race that might be capable of taking up the running and owning it from the front. I think that might be the big advantage for him. He was beaten by Widgee Turf at level weights last start which is a pretty good reference for a race like this. While his form here at the track and form over the mile doesn’t read particularly well, I doubt he would have found a race set up as well for him in that time. He has an in form Brett Prebble on board who is very much in the zone at the moment and happy to be with him. The best roughy in the race for mine is clearly Riyadh. This horse has really good third up form and his two runs back from a spell this time in have been really good. He carried big weights at both those runs at Pakenham and here last start. He gets significant weight relief here dropping down to 52kgs after the claim for Michael Poy. His mile record is good and that third up record as I mentioned suggests he might be ready to deliver a peak performance for the campaign here. At double figure odds happy to have something on him. I am obviously worried about Guizot who looks to be flying but gee, that was his race at The Bool and he got the job done, but this is a bit harder so happy to just play around him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Mahamedeis and Kazio here and $15 the win on Riyadh!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

3:40pm

Suggested

Lady Vega (No.6), Bam’s On Fire (No.10), Delusions (No.11) & The Commoner (No.13)

Dangers

Propelle (No.1) & Notation (No.4)

This is another good race here for the three year old fillies over the 1100m. There look to be a host of winning chances in this race. Propelle has come up the favourite in the race off the back of a dominant win last start but I thought she might be worth taking on here. She shoots up in weight, draws wide and might be spotting a few of these a start. I think there might be a few handy ones amongst her rivals too. Bam’s On Fire is a really interesting runner in my opinion. This filly raced in Perth as a two year old against some of the better horses in that part of the world and was quite competitive. She then made her way to Victoria and into the Ciaron Maher stables but was beaten comfortably at her first run here by the promising Leiter when a $1.50 favourite at Bendigo back in November. She was immediately spelled following that run and resumed at Benalla a couple of weeks ago where she absolutely bolted in her maiden. It was a track gallop and she won by a big margin with plenty in hand and the time was comparable to other races over that same distance on the day. She draws to land on speed here and I think she will be hard to beat. The only issue is she is down to race at Scone and Morphettville as well as here. I am hoping she comes here as I think she will be hard to beat and happy to be with her. Her stable mate Delusions is another horse I think can run well here. She may prove to be the reason that Bam’s On Fire goes interstate as the stable may want to separate them. Delusions is an interesting runner. She won impressively at Swan Hill on debut and then went to Caulfield on Caulfield Cup Day and started favourite in a race there. She ran poorly and was immediately spelled post that run. I loved her recent Cranbourne trial though. I thought she had plenty more to give and looked really strong through the line. She draws a nice barrier here to get a good run just off the speed and at double figure odds I think she is worth a bet here. The Commoner is another interesting runner here. She won well on debut at Cranbourne back in early March when leading all the way and winning by a big margin. Since then she has been back to the jump outs at Flemington recently and gone particularly well. She has no weight on her back, has a low barrier draw to jump on the bunny and she might prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner. Lady Vega is the other horse I want to be on in the race. She resumed from a spell with a good win at Ballarat and then was good last week at Flemington I thought. She loomed to win that race but seemed to just peak on her run late. I like her on the quick back up here and she is a pretty talented horse in my opinion so happy to have something on her at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bam's On Fire, $25 the win on The Commoner, $15 the win on Delusions and $10 the win on Vega Magic here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:20pm

Suggested

Leonardo da Hinchi (No.8)

Dangers

Jungle Edge (No.1) & Blaze Forth (No.5)

This looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. It is interesting mainly because of the appearance of this very smart galloper in Leonardo Da Hinchi who makes his debut for the Mick Price stable after formerly being in the Weir camp. His form around Brutal and The Autumn Sun through that three year old spring campaign certainly reads well for a race of this nature. This just looks a really good race for him. He strikes a field of sprinters that have been to the well a few times and he comes in as the horse very much untapped and on the rise. That was just his first racing campaign in the spring and he performed particularly well. With natural improvement from that campaign into his second one here you can only think he is going to come back a better horse this time in. If he does that, this race looks to be at his mercy. He has a few races in Brisbane that he is being targeted for and if he is to measure up in those bigger races there then he is going to want to be winning this. It isn’t a field of vintage sprinters. Jungle Edge is a bit like a vintage red wine however but I would expect Leonardo Da Hinchi to have his measure with even luck in the race. Adding to the confidence I have in him is the fact that he has jumped out really well down at Terang where he has been stabled with Beetroot Williams. He towelled up a field of gallopers in his most recent jump out down there. A few of those gallopers went to The Bool and performed particularly well too. There is a lot to like. I like the fact he is drawn out and I think if Michael Dee can have him in a nice trailing position with cover peeling out wide with full momentum he should be able to get over the top of them. He only has 54kgs on his back and I think the $3 on offer at the moment probably won’t be there on race day. He looks to be just about the best of the day in the country to me. Keen.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Leonardo Da Hinchi here having half now at the $3 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 1

12:15pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.1)

Dangers

Wild Planet (No.2) & Signore Fox (No.3)

The main race meeting in New South Wales this Saturday comes from Scone for what has become their big two day carnival. It starts with the Cup on Friday (I will tweet out a couple I like on that program) and ends with the big stand alone Saturday program. It is another strong meeting. Scone is an interesting track. Typically by the second day it is no disadvantage to be coming away from the fence and wider draws aren’t really disadvantaged. It is a big long straight and most if not all horses get their chance. It is a good meeting likely to be on a good track looking at the forecast and hopefully there are a few winners for us. I am kicking off in the first race of the day which is strangely enough one of the feature races of the day in the Inglis Guineas for the three year olds. It is only a small field of nine but it looks a competitive race. Military Zone kept his unbeaten second up record in tact last start with a strong win in the Hawkesbury Guineas. I thought there was plenty of merit to the win. He came from off the speed, rounded up the leaders and then had to hold off the talented Trope who had the last shot at him. They put a gap on the rest of the field and I think that gives real merit to the victory. I see no reason why he won’t win again. He comes up against a couple of runners through different form lines who do look dangerous here in Wild Planet and Signore Fox. Wild Planet has been brave in defeat at his two runs this time in off tough runs while Signore Fox won easily at Hawkesbury in a weaker race on the same day Military Zone won. I am just of the opinion that Military Zone is a good horse in the zone on the way up and if this track is favouring horses getting out wider then him being back off the speed from the outside draw won’t be an issue. Happy to be with him to start the day here.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Military Zone here to kick the day off!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Southern Lad (No.5), Wagner (No.6) & Anna’s Joy (No.8)

Dangers

Star Crossed (No.10) & Jack’s Bar (No.18)

This race draws a big field every year. It is a sprint race over the 1100m and it is always one of the more wide open races of the carnival. I did think that this year it perhaps had a pretty long tail and that perhaps the value was with those horses that were well in the market. Wagner is the horse that I certainly think looks hardest to beat. His form this time in has been solid and I think he finds a really winnable race here. He won well first up on the Kensington track before taking on that fast race won by Krone featuring Wild Planet and Classique Legend at Rosehill. He then wasn’t beaten far by Americana Magic one of his rivals in this race at Gosford two starts back before an excellent run at Hawkesbury last start behind Signore Fox. They really went along at a solid tempo in that race and he was up there making that speed. He stuck on well to run second. That race was over the 1300m and I think coming back to the 1100m here on the big Scone track is a big plus for him. His record at this trip is excellent and even though most of those runs have come when he was fresh I think this race sets up well for him. He draws a nice middle gate for Tommy Berry to settle just off the speed and that should see him hard to beat with even luck. Happy to be with him Southern Lad was an interesting run first up at Randwick over the 1000m. I backed him that day off a really nice trial and I thought halfway down the straight he was going to gobble his rivals up. He just seemed to peak on his run 100m from home. He was carrying a big weight there first up chasing a fast tempo for most of the way and he was also a big drifter in the market which suggested he might be in need of the run. I am hoping with that run under the belt he will strip a lot fitter here and hopefully finish the race off with a bit more gusto. He gets good weight relief after the claim for Billy Owen and the extra 100m in trip should be to his liking. He draws wide so he is going to be well back and is another that will be hoping that the track is suiting that type of runner. I think if he has gone on from that first up run he will be right in the thick of things here as he is a talented galloper that I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. Happy to be with him also. The other runner I will save on in the race is Anna’s Joy. This mare ran super in the Wagga Town Plate last Thursday. She was just in behind the leaders in that race and went back to the inside to try and finish the race off. By that stage of the day horses seemed to be appreciating getting a bit wider on the track and I am not sure she was in the best ground. She stuck to her task well though to be beaten just over a length. Back to the 1100m here I think suits and I don’t see this race being too much tougher if tougher at all than that Wagga Town Plate. I think if she can reproduce a run to that level she will be in the finish and around the $15 mark looks a good bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wagner, $25 the win on Southern Lad and $15 the win on Anna's Joy!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 6

3:25pm

Suggested

Deploy (No.1), Brave Song (No.3) & Resin (No.7)

Dangers

Trekking (No.2) & Redouble (No.6)

This is the Luskin Star Stakes over the 1300m at listed level and this race has drawn together a really competitive field. This race does bat deep. There are quite a few winning chances here. The main form reference looks to be the race won by Trekking on the final day of The Championships at Randwick. Trekking was just that little bit closer in the run than Brave Song and Redouble who closed off strongly but were ultimately unable to run down Trekking. Trekking was second up into that race whereas Brave Song was coming into it second up and I am just banking on there perhaps being a bit more improvement in Brave Song coming into this race. Brave Song did beat Trekking at Caulfield back in the spring when Trekking drew an inside gate and was boxed away and Brave Song got the luck and won well. Brave Song draws out here and Trekking draws in and I am just hoping that Trekking might find a bit of trouble and that Brave Song can storm down the middle of the track and hopefully have full momentum and get that advantage. There isn’t much between them but at nearly double the price I think Brave Song is well worth a bet here. Keen to be with him. I think Resin is a massive chance in the race. This mare has raced really well in her three runs this campaign without the best of luck in my opinion. She was wide and handy to the speed in the first two runs of her campaign and did plenty of work in the run. She was just touched off in both of those after looking the winner. She then went into that race won by White Moss which was run at a crazy speed and she was probably just taken out of her comfort zone in that race. Since that run she has been freshened up and gone back to the trials and looked very impressive at Hawkesbury where she was strangled over the line but still won nicely. I like the fact for her that she is drawn gate one even though the track might not be suiting that draw. I think for her though it gives her a chance to be ridden with a smother and then be produced to have one crack at them and I think she will race more effectively that day. If she gets the breaks in running and can get to the right part of the track then she should prove hard to hold out. Around the $8-9 mark I think she is a really good bet in the race. My old mate Deploy also goes around off the back off a couple of good trials. This is a race well within his grasp and I won’t want to be losing on the race should he salute. He is good double figure odds and well worth saving on in my opinion.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Brave Song here, $25 the win on Resin and $15 the win on Deploy!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

4:05pm

Suggested

Zumbelina (No.7), Aqua D’ivina (No.10), Into The Abyss (No.11) & Asharani (No.14)

Dangers

Savatiano (No.3) & Moss Trip (No.6)

This is another race that looks wide open and looks to have plenty of chances. It is for the fillies and mares at Group Three level over the 1400m. I am playing around the favourites to some extent here. The one horse that is well in the market that I want to be with is Into The Abyss. Gee, she deserves to win a race does this filly. She is knocking on the door. She has clearly come back very well this time in. her first up run was good enough off a good trial before she really improved second up when just touched off by Multaja. She followed that up with a most unlucky second two weeks later at Randwick where she clearly should have won with even luck. The issue here is she again draws gate one and will need a touch of luck. She is a filly that settles off the pace and Glyn is a rider that can sometimes look for luck and go for the magic run rather than play the percentages. If the breaks come her way though I think she has her hoof right on the till. She is not too deep into her campaign whereas some of the other horses like Princess Posh, Savatiano and Siren’s Fury have been up for a little while now so I think there is more to come from Into The Abyss and with even luck she can be winning here. The other three horses I am backing all seem to be decent odds. Zumbelina should be ready now at her third run back from a spell. She has been solid if not spectacular in her two runs back but they have both been really solidly run races that have been owned by horses up on speed. She has struggled to get into those races. I feel this race may set up more favourably for a horse to come off the pace. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but I would expect her to be pretty close to her peak here third up and am expecting an improved run. She has come up around the $21 in the early markets and looks well worth a bet at that price. Aqua D’ivina resumed in the same race Zumbelina ran in last start but was only first up. She just got ran off her feet. I thought she found the line well enough without ever really looking like a winning chance. She is another I would expect to improve significantly here second up. The question mark with her is that she might be just looking for that little bit more ground now she is a bit more seasoned but if the speed is on and there is the chance for something running on to come over the top she does have a touch of quality about her. Around the $15 mark she looks worth a bet also. Asharani is the other horse I am going to have something on. She wasn’t too far off Into The Abyss last start in that race they both contested at Randwick. She got back along the inside and tried to track Into The Abyss through but found some similar traffic problems. I thought she went through the line really strongly. She is about two and a half times the price of Into The Abyss in this market and I don’t think there should be that much discrepancy. At those odds I think she is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

The $7 with TopBetta about Into The Abyss is good value for mine and will lock that in and have $30 the win on her! I will also have $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina and Asharani and $10 the win on Zumbelina!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 8

4:45pm

Suggested

Viridine (No.2) & Victorem (No.3)

Dangers

Dothraki (No.1) & Guard Of Honour (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on here. It is over the 1100m for the sprinters. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I tweeted about this race on Thursday morning and was pretty bullish that either Viridine or Victorem should be winning this race. They just look to have a fair bit on their opposition here. Viridine hasn’t won for a while but this is probably the weakest race he has contested for some time. He has been competing against some top class sprinters in good company and probably just hasn’t measured up. He hasn’t had the best of luck in a few of those races either. Even last start when he looked to get into a winnable race which was won by Trekking he just didn’t quite get clear running when he needed it to be able to build any momentum. I thought he probably went through the line with something more to give. I think he should avoid any traffic issues. The big Scone track should suit him perfectly and from a middle gate for Jason Collett he looks really well placed. This is probably d-day for him but you aren’t taking a ridiculously short price about him. He is $4+ in the market and if he runs to his best with even luck that price may look a real spoil. Happy to be with him. I probably do lean just slightly to Victorem. This is a race featuring a few horses that have been around the block a few times. Even the horse I just spoke about Virdiine has had a few chances and probably isn’t on the up anymore. This horse Victorem may very well still be on an upward spiral. He started to put it together last campaign particularly over the summer months in Brisbane when he ran some strong races. A couple of those were without luck but his win the listed Lough Neagh was dominant and the win of a good horse. He has had a good break since his last run at the end of December and has had two trials to get him ready for this first up assignment. He hasn’t trialled against much in those trials at Port Macquarie and Taree but he has looked very impressive in both of them. The pleasing thing is that he has jumped really well in both of those. If he can become a horse that can really take up a position on speed and sprint off it he is going to be very dangerous. This is a good test for him first up. He looks ready to go off the two trials and if he is going to take the step up this campaign to the next level then he probably wants to beat these in my opinion. Providing Ben Looker can get him into a good position from the middle to wide gate, hopefully tracking up with some cover in clear galloping room then he is going to be very hard to hold out. Keen to be with him and with the two of them at $4+ I think it is a super two bet play.

Betting strategy

The $4.60 about Victorem looks an absolute spoil with BetEasy and can see him starting much shorter than that! I will have $50 the win on him at that price and $40 the win on Viridine!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

11:25am

Suggested

Femme Fireball (No.2), Of The Day (No.3) & Mishani Electra (No.7)

Dangers

River Racer (No.1) & Awake The Stars (No.4)

Group One racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben this Saturday for the big Doomben 10,000 meeting as the winter carnival really starts to heat up. The weather as it generally does at this time of year in Brisbane is turning it on too. As a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday for what looks a really good day of racing. I am going to kick the day off in the first race for the fillies and mares which looks a pretty wide open affair. The main chances certainly look to be up towards the top of the market but given how open the race is there is plenty of value in those horses in my opnion. Certainly the horse for mine that looked to go up early overs in that market was Mishani Electra. This mare was formerly with Ben Currie and now finds herself in the Les Ross stables at Eagle Farm. Her form last campaign was really strong and she comes into this race first up. Ironically for a 1200m race this is a race that looked to lack a bit for early speed and a natural leader. She certainly fits that bill and for that reason I think she is well set up. She gets first look at a Doomben track rated as good with the rail in the true position from gate one and she should jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Happy to be with her. I am keeping a couple of other resuming mares on side. Of The Day finds a pretty winnable Class 6 race here. This is a mare that raced in listed company last campaign predominantly and was probably at the end of her campaign when she dropped back to this grade at her final run of the campaign. She wasn’t beaten far in that against the males. She resumes here against her own sex from a good draw with James McDonald engaged. That for me is all positive and indicates she might be ready to rumble first up. If James can hold a position on her close enough to the speed from that good draw and make use of it then she should be hard to hold out. Happy to be with her. I can’t leave Femme Fireball out of the equation. She is a very talented mare on her day and potentially the best horse in the race. This won’t be an easy assignment though first up around Doomben. She draws out and will most likely be spotting her rivals a pretty handy start. It is just whether she can get herself within striking distance or not. If she is within touch coming to the home turn and can have the leaders in her sight she could be hard to hold out. She has a big finish on her on her day. The thing that does have me confident about her running well is that she was very good in the early stages of her last campaign. If she returns this time around in the same vein, then I think this is a winnable race for her. I probably lean to the other two just ahead of her but don’t want to be losing should she salute.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Mishani Electra locking in the $7 about her! I will also have $20 the win on Of The Day and Femme Fireball!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Multaja (No.12)

Dangers

Racecourse Road (No.3) & Vega One (No.4)

This race is for the three year olds over the 1350m. We typically find that the Sydney carnival holds up in Brisbane at this time of year and for that reason I am pretty keen to back Multaja here in this race despite the short odds. She certainly doesn’t look to strike any world beaters in this race. Her form this time in has been excellent. She just got a bit too far back first up at Moonee Valley when she was well backed before returning to Sydney and stringing together two excellent wins. She won easily at Hawkesbury as favourite before winning the last race on Derby Day at Randwick. She then just got a bit too far back at Hawkesbury in a race that was dominated on speed and eventually won by Irithea. This just looks an ideal assignment for her. She draws gate five for Kerrin McEvoy to land just off the speed in a stalking position and from there she should be really hard to hold out. She is in the red, but around the $1.80-90 mark which to me looks a real spoil. The only doubt if any that I have is perhaps her ability to run a strong 1350m. Given how well she hit the line at Hawkesbury over the 1300m though I am confident she can handle that so happy to be with her here and think anything around that $1.80 mark or more is a good enough price.

Betting strategy

I will have $105 the win on Multaja here having half now at the $1.95 and the other half at Top Fluc tomorrow!

Race Outlay

$105

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Dealmaker (No.1) & The Golden Hand (No.9)

Dangers

Trusty Lad (No.2) & Purple Sector (No.4)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and again I am going to side with that Sydney carnival form to come to the fore. Until I see evidence otherwise at this Brisbane carnival I am pretty content in trusting that form to shine through. Dealmaker and Purple Sector are the two gallopers that bring that Sydney form here having come through the Carbine Club and Packer Plate at their last two starts. Dealmaker has had the better of Purple Sector in both of those races and I would expect him to do so again here. He does need to get another win on the board though. He is becoming a bit of a costly one for punters. He now only has the one win from thirteen starts but until his last couple of runs he had been racing in some of the top company. He had raced in the Australian and Rosehill Guineas and you only have to look at his Australian Guineas run where he was only just over two lengths off Mystic Journey to see that he is a horse of quality. I think this race easily represents the best chance for him to win a race this campaign. He draws gate two for James McDonald so he should get a lovely run in transit and from there he just needs the breaks to come his way and he should be right in the finish. Happy to be with him. I am going to save on The Golden Hind who is a horse going through the grades here in Queensland and might just have that little bit of x-factor about him. He is certainly the horse on the way up. He got the job done two starts back over the 1400m at the Sunshine Coast to break his maiden before getting up to the mile last Sunday and beating his rivals into submission with a near ten length victory. I just think he might be the horse that can take it to the next level here and as a result will save on him at the double figure odds just in case. I think unless Dealmaker has come to the end of his campaign or strikes some bad luck from the inside draw though he should be winning.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Dealmaker here and save with $15 the win on The Golden Hind!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8 - Doomben 10,000

3:50pm

Suggested

Osborne Bulls (No.1) & The Bostonian (No.8)

Dangers

Nature Strip (No.2) & Champagne Cuddles (No.11)

This is the big race of the day punters. It is the Group One Doomben 10,000 over the 1200m at Doomben. It promises to be a fascinating race. There looks to be a lot of speed that is for sure. Any race that features Nature Strip certainly has a lot of speed in it. He looks like he will have some company here. Nothing will match him for early speed but the likes of I’m A Rippa, Dollar For Dollar and White Moss will all push forward and keep him rolling. I don’t mind Nature Strip drawing out. I think that is a big advantage for him. He can sometimes be a fraction slow initially out of the gates before he builds the revs and really gets into his work. For that reason an outside draw is preferable to an inside draw. The question is can he run out a strong 1200m? I have no doubt Doomben is a good track for him but there has to be a bit of a question mark on him at the end of the 1200m. For that reason I am giving Osborne Bulls one last chance. He certainly isn’t running badly, he just keeps finding one better. This is certainly in terms of the races he has contested this campaign, the weakest. He draws in gate four so I am hoping Kerrin McEvoy can hold him just that little bit closer to the speed. I think if he can be within striking distance coming into the straight and the breaks come his way that he will be capable of getting over the top of them. At the better price than Nature Strip I think he is worth a bet as I really can’t split them and if anything probably had Osborne Bulls rated a little bit shorter. Keen to be with him, for one last time maybe. I think I said that last time. Let’s hope this is his day. The horse I am saving on in the race is The Bostonian. This New Zealand galloper raced really well here in Queensland last winter and returns for the first time since then. He raced well through his recent New Zealand campaign without ever really hitting any great heights. The key here is that he comes into the race first up. He is unbeaten in four first up runs, his 1200m record is strong and he was dominant in his only run here at Doomben. This is undoubtedly his toughest test but he draws well to get a suck run on the speed and I think at $51 you can have worse bets than that.

Betting strategy

There is good support for Osborne Bulls and I will lock in the $3.40 with QLD TAB Fixed odds and have $65 the win on him! I will save with $5 the win on The Bostonian at the $61 with the same outlet and also have $10 the place on him at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:16pm

Suggested

Arkham Knight (No.1) & Debt Collector (No.4)

Dangers

Vinland (No.3) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.5)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday with the running of the South Australian Derby at Morphettville. The rains have arrived in Adelaide and as a result we will be racing on a soft track on Saturday. This week’s meeting certainly doesn’t look as strong as what last week’s was and as a result I have just found a couple of races to bet into. I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m. I am pretty keen on Debt Collector here. I have been following this galloper for a little while now and been on him at both runs this campaign. He has performed well in both those runs but just had little luck. He has been caught wide and back and probably don’t a bit too much work in the run covering ground which has dulled his typically dynamic fashion. I think he can bounce back here though. He finally draws an inside gate and while he will need luck from that gate for Dwayne Dunn, I think it will suit his racing style. He can be smothered up in behind them and produced for that one big finish where he is most effective. He comes into the race third up as I mentioned and given that he should prove hard to hold out. Keen to be in his corner. The horse I am saving on is Arkham Knight. He is another that has been really good in both runs this time in. He ran third in a listed race last start and comes back to a Benchmark 86 here on Saturday. While he goes up in weight I think he looks well placed. Like Debt Collector he comes into the race third up from a spell and will certainly appreciate the soft conditions. He won a pretty wet track at The Bool last May and his overall soft track form record reads well. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and around the $9-10 mark I think he is an excellent bet here.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Debt Collector and save with $20 the win on Arkham Knight here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7 - South Australian Derby

4:36pm

Suggested

Declarationofheart (No.3), Classic Weiwei (No.6), Mangione (No.10) & Qafila (No.16)

Dangers

Chapada (No.1), Mr Quickie (No.2) & Ridgewood Drive (No.8)

This is a wide open South Australian Derby as you can tell from the number of horses that I have mentioned above. It isn’t a race I want to really tumble into too many of the favourites in and as such was happy to play it a little bit wider with a few at odds. I am hoping the form from The Chairman’s here two weeks ago holds up. I thought Declarationofheart’s win in that race was super. He looked in a bit of trouble coming to the home turn when he was stuck back in traffic inside horses with a wall of horses in front of him but he found a way through and was really strong through the line. That win followed a solid run in the Derby in Sydney. I think that will hold him in good stead for a race of this nature. He draws ideally for Clayton Douglas to get a gun run in behind the speed and while there is the soft track question mark, if he handles it I think he will be hard to beat so happy to be with him. The emerging horse in the race might be Classic Weiwei who made up a ton of ground from the back of the field in that same race behind Declarationofheart. He is the lightly raced horse going through the grades on the way up. He got a long way back last start and hit the line strongly as he did in his previous start win. He is another that is unproven on a wet track but if he handles it he looks certain to run the trip right out. He draws wide so he will be back in the run but I would expect him to be really hitting the line and around the $20 mark he looks a good bet to me. The three year old fillies have been very strong this year and for that reason I want to keep Qafila on side who was a big run last week behind Princess Jenni. She just got a bit too far back and hit the line really strongly. Her run in the Oaks in the spring in Melbourne was also quite good when covering a heap of extra ground the entire journey. She draws a nice middle gate here and as I said the form of the fillies against the boys right throughout the season in these three year old races gives me a lot of confidence that she can run well here. At double figure odds on the week’s back up I am happy to have something on her here. The other horse at big odds I am going to back is Mangione. Chris Waller brings this horse over from Sydney after being beaten as an odds on favourite last start on the Kensington track. If you go back three starts this horse wasn’t too far behind the Derby winner in Sydney in Angel Of Truth and given that form reference you can relate him to Declarationofheart. He has the blinkers go on here from an inside gate with Dwayne Dunn on board and already has a couple of soft track wins to his credit. Given all that I thought he was probably over the odds around that $30-40 mark in early markets. At those odds I certainly think he is worth a small ticket. The chances obviously don’t end there. ChapadaMr Quickie and Ridgewood Drive are well in the market and all great winning chances but I am just going to play the race a little wider and hope to get a result.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Declarationofheart, $20 the win on Qafila and $10 the win on both Classic Weiwei and Mangione!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:30pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Seven Year Reward (No.7) & Akkadian (No.8)

Dangers

William Thomas (No.5) & Delvecchio (No.13)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for once we have a bit of rain about in Melbourne town. We have had a bit during the week and the track is in the soft range. Caulfield drains amazingly well though and some sunshine on Saturday might see it get pretty close to good. I think it will stay in the soft range though and we will be looking for horses that will appreciate that little bit of give. The rail is out ten metres so I wouldn’t be surprised if a fair bit of the track is used with that give in it. I am kicking off the day in the second race which is over the 1100m. I thought this race was fairly open. There certainly looks to be some good speed engaged. I thought that might set it up for Akkadian sitting off the pace coming back in trip to be really strong at the end of the race. This three year old resumed with a strong win at Pakenham first up before going to the 1400m second up and running fairly in a listed race in Adelaide. He is a horse that has been quite dynamic coming off a strong speed over shorter trips and with the blinkers on here with a good speed up front I think he looks really dangerous with Williams on board. Around that $8 mark I think he is worth a ticket here. Like To Think So is a handy horse resuming from a spell here. His form last preparation around the likes of Debt Collector, Haunted and Bravo Tango certainly read well for a race of this nature. He had a recent jump out at Bendigo and he went like a rocket there easily despatching of his rivals by a big margin. He is a horse that typically races well fresh and while 1100m maybe short of his best trip, the way he went in that jump out suggests to me he can sprint really well fresh so keen to be in his corner at the double figure odds. Seven Year Reward comes through the Propelle race which a few others do in this race. He fought on well in that race after being wide on speed. I am hoping that from an inside gate here he might be able to land on speed either leading or outside the leader and from there could prove hard to get past with a bit of race fitness on side so will have something on him at double figure odds. I have no doubt William Thomas and Delvecchio are probably the best two horses in the race but both draw wide and will be well back so I think they are a bit of a risk at their respective prices so happy to play around them with a couple of other runners at odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Akkadian here and save with $15 the win on both Like To Think So and Seven Year Reward!

Race Outlay

$55

Race 3

1:05pm

Suggested

Zoutori (No.1), I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.9) & Shandy (No.10)

Dangers

Orcein (No.4)

This race is over the mile for the three year olds. Zoutori has benefited from a couple of perfect runs in transit at his last two starts and only two starts for this campaign and won impressively. The slight concern with him coming into this race is that fact that he has had a dream run in transit. Last start at Flemington he was just given a gun ride by Williams and duly saluted. He has a few things that punters may see as being against him here. He steps up to the mile he rises to 60kgs and there is obviously that potential for him to not get the perfect run. In saying that I think he is a horse that is just going to continue to improve through the campaign. He draws a middle gate again for Williams and despite the rise in weight and trip I think he is still the horse they all have to beat so I don’t want to lose on the race should he salute. I am certainly not as keen as I was at Flemington though. The stable mate Shandy is deep into her debut campaign but seems to be improving with each and every run. She is a big danger here. She ran well on debut before winning her maiden at her second start. She then beat all bar Big Night Out who she meets again here and was a fraction unlucky behind Tarwin here last start in a race quite a few horses here come through. I think she will appreciate drawing a bit wider on the track in clear galloping room and if she can get into a good spot in running she will be finishing off strongly late. Happy to be with her. The best roughy in the race might be the resuming I’m Dun Dreamin’. This galloper won on debut at massive odds at Cranbourne back in August before doing a fair bit of work in the run at his second start at Sale when running fifth. He was immediately spelled post that run. He had a jump out at Ballarat back in March which he looked to go particularly well in. I haven’t seen a jump out since but I know a few good judges I speak with are quite keen on his chances in this race if he is fit enough. The market will probably tell a tale but if the money does come for him I think it will be a sign he will run a big race. Around that $15-20 mark I am happy to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

Big Night Out's scratching has really taken the fat out of this market! Zoutori is pretty short now! I will have $50 the win on him, $25 the win on Shandy and $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' but the race has lost some punting luster now!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 4

1:40pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.2), Kazio (No.6) & Riyadh (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.5) & He Exscels (No.8)

Gee, this is a tricky race. I struggled to wrap my head around this one. It is over the mile and there is a small field but there are a heap of winning chances. I was pretty disappointed in Mahamedeis last start but I am going to back up on him here. I think the mile might be his best trip. His three runs prior to the last start failure this campaign were all excellent. He finished well back first up but the run was actually better than it looked. He was then very unlucky second up at Bendigo in the Golden Mile before winning well here at his third up run. Like I said, I was quite keen on him last start but he was really plain. I am going to give him another chance back to the mile here as I think if he runs up to those previous runs here he will be hard to roll. Kazio is another that is racing really well this time in and is pretty deep into what has been a long campaign. I just think this race might pan out well for him. He looks one of the few horses in the race that might be capable of taking up the running and owning it from the front. I think that might be the big advantage for him. He was beaten by Widgee Turf at level weights last start which is a pretty good reference for a race like this. While his form here at the track and form over the mile doesn’t read particularly well, I doubt he would have found a race set up as well for him in that time. He has an in form Brett Prebble on board who is very much in the zone at the moment and happy to be with him. The best roughy in the race for mine is clearly Riyadh. This horse has really good third up form and his two runs back from a spell this time in have been really good. He carried big weights at both those runs at Pakenham and here last start. He gets significant weight relief here dropping down to 52kgs after the claim for Michael Poy. His mile record is good and that third up record as I mentioned suggests he might be ready to deliver a peak performance for the campaign here. At double figure odds happy to have something on him. I am obviously worried about Guizot who looks to be flying but gee, that was his race at The Bool and he got the job done, but this is a bit harder so happy to just play around him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Mahamedeis and Kazio here and $15 the win on Riyadh!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

3:40pm

Suggested

Lady Vega (No.6), Bam’s On Fire (No.10), Delusions (No.11) & The Commoner (No.13)

Dangers

Propelle (No.1) & Notation (No.4)

This is another good race here for the three year old fillies over the 1100m. There look to be a host of winning chances in this race. Propelle has come up the favourite in the race off the back of a dominant win last start but I thought she might be worth taking on here. She shoots up in weight, draws wide and might be spotting a few of these a start. I think there might be a few handy ones amongst her rivals too. Bam’s On Fire is a really interesting runner in my opinion. This filly raced in Perth as a two year old against some of the better horses in that part of the world and was quite competitive. She then made her way to Victoria and into the Ciaron Maher stables but was beaten comfortably at her first run here by the promising Leiter when a $1.50 favourite at Bendigo back in November. She was immediately spelled following that run and resumed at Benalla a couple of weeks ago where she absolutely bolted in her maiden. It was a track gallop and she won by a big margin with plenty in hand and the time was comparable to other races over that same distance on the day. She draws to land on speed here and I think she will be hard to beat. The only issue is she is down to race at Scone and Morphettville as well as here. I am hoping she comes here as I think she will be hard to beat and happy to be with her. Her stable mate Delusions is another horse I think can run well here. She may prove to be the reason that Bam’s On Fire goes interstate as the stable may want to separate them. Delusions is an interesting runner. She won impressively at Swan Hill on debut and then went to Caulfield on Caulfield Cup Day and started favourite in a race there. She ran poorly and was immediately spelled post that run. I loved her recent Cranbourne trial though. I thought she had plenty more to give and looked really strong through the line. She draws a nice barrier here to get a good run just off the speed and at double figure odds I think she is worth a bet here. The Commoner is another interesting runner here. She won well on debut at Cranbourne back in early March when leading all the way and winning by a big margin. Since then she has been back to the jump outs at Flemington recently and gone particularly well. She has no weight on her back, has a low barrier draw to jump on the bunny and she might prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner. Lady Vega is the other horse I want to be on in the race. She resumed from a spell with a good win at Ballarat and then was good last week at Flemington I thought. She loomed to win that race but seemed to just peak on her run late. I like her on the quick back up here and she is a pretty talented horse in my opinion so happy to have something on her at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bam's On Fire, $25 the win on The Commoner, $15 the win on Delusions and $10 the win on Vega Magic here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:20pm

Suggested

Leonardo da Hinchi (No.8)

Dangers

Jungle Edge (No.1) & Blaze Forth (No.5)

This looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. It is interesting mainly because of the appearance of this very smart galloper in Leonardo Da Hinchi who makes his debut for the Mick Price stable after formerly being in the Weir camp. His form around Brutal and The Autumn Sun through that three year old spring campaign certainly reads well for a race of this nature. This just looks a really good race for him. He strikes a field of sprinters that have been to the well a few times and he comes in as the horse very much untapped and on the rise. That was just his first racing campaign in the spring and he performed particularly well. With natural improvement from that campaign into his second one here you can only think he is going to come back a better horse this time in. If he does that, this race looks to be at his mercy. He has a few races in Brisbane that he is being targeted for and if he is to measure up in those bigger races there then he is going to want to be winning this. It isn’t a field of vintage sprinters. Jungle Edge is a bit like a vintage red wine however but I would expect Leonardo Da Hinchi to have his measure with even luck in the race. Adding to the confidence I have in him is the fact that he has jumped out really well down at Terang where he has been stabled with Beetroot Williams. He towelled up a field of gallopers in his most recent jump out down there. A few of those gallopers went to The Bool and performed particularly well too. There is a lot to like. I like the fact he is drawn out and I think if Michael Dee can have him in a nice trailing position with cover peeling out wide with full momentum he should be able to get over the top of them. He only has 54kgs on his back and I think the $3 on offer at the moment probably won’t be there on race day. He looks to be just about the best of the day in the country to me. Keen.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Leonardo Da Hinchi here having half now at the $3 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 1

12:15pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.1)

Dangers

Wild Planet (No.2) & Signore Fox (No.3)

The main race meeting in New South Wales this Saturday comes from Scone for what has become their big two day carnival. It starts with the Cup on Friday (I will tweet out a couple I like on that program) and ends with the big stand alone Saturday program. It is another strong meeting. Scone is an interesting track. Typically by the second day it is no disadvantage to be coming away from the fence and wider draws aren’t really disadvantaged. It is a big long straight and most if not all horses get their chance. It is a good meeting likely to be on a good track looking at the forecast and hopefully there are a few winners for us. I am kicking off in the first race of the day which is strangely enough one of the feature races of the day in the Inglis Guineas for the three year olds. It is only a small field of nine but it looks a competitive race. Military Zone kept his unbeaten second up record in tact last start with a strong win in the Hawkesbury Guineas. I thought there was plenty of merit to the win. He came from off the speed, rounded up the leaders and then had to hold off the talented Trope who had the last shot at him. They put a gap on the rest of the field and I think that gives real merit to the victory. I see no reason why he won’t win again. He comes up against a couple of runners through different form lines who do look dangerous here in Wild Planet and Signore Fox. Wild Planet has been brave in defeat at his two runs this time in off tough runs while Signore Fox won easily at Hawkesbury in a weaker race on the same day Military Zone won. I am just of the opinion that Military Zone is a good horse in the zone on the way up and if this track is favouring horses getting out wider then him being back off the speed from the outside draw won’t be an issue. Happy to be with him to start the day here.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Military Zone here to kick the day off!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Southern Lad (No.5), Wagner (No.6) & Anna’s Joy (No.8)

Dangers

Star Crossed (No.10) & Jack’s Bar (No.18)

This race draws a big field every year. It is a sprint race over the 1100m and it is always one of the more wide open races of the carnival. I did think that this year it perhaps had a pretty long tail and that perhaps the value was with those horses that were well in the market. Wagner is the horse that I certainly think looks hardest to beat. His form this time in has been solid and I think he finds a really winnable race here. He won well first up on the Kensington track before taking on that fast race won by Krone featuring Wild Planet and Classique Legend at Rosehill. He then wasn’t beaten far by Americana Magic one of his rivals in this race at Gosford two starts back before an excellent run at Hawkesbury last start behind Signore Fox. They really went along at a solid tempo in that race and he was up there making that speed. He stuck on well to run second. That race was over the 1300m and I think coming back to the 1100m here on the big Scone track is a big plus for him. His record at this trip is excellent and even though most of those runs have come when he was fresh I think this race sets up well for him. He draws a nice middle gate for Tommy Berry to settle just off the speed and that should see him hard to beat with even luck. Happy to be with him Southern Lad was an interesting run first up at Randwick over the 1000m. I backed him that day off a really nice trial and I thought halfway down the straight he was going to gobble his rivals up. He just seemed to peak on his run 100m from home. He was carrying a big weight there first up chasing a fast tempo for most of the way and he was also a big drifter in the market which suggested he might be in need of the run. I am hoping with that run under the belt he will strip a lot fitter here and hopefully finish the race off with a bit more gusto. He gets good weight relief after the claim for Billy Owen and the extra 100m in trip should be to his liking. He draws wide so he is going to be well back and is another that will be hoping that the track is suiting that type of runner. I think if he has gone on from that first up run he will be right in the thick of things here as he is a talented galloper that I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. Happy to be with him also. The other runner I will save on in the race is Anna’s Joy. This mare ran super in the Wagga Town Plate last Thursday. She was just in behind the leaders in that race and went back to the inside to try and finish the race off. By that stage of the day horses seemed to be appreciating getting a bit wider on the track and I am not sure she was in the best ground. She stuck to her task well though to be beaten just over a length. Back to the 1100m here I think suits and I don’t see this race being too much tougher if tougher at all than that Wagga Town Plate. I think if she can reproduce a run to that level she will be in the finish and around the $15 mark looks a good bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wagner, $25 the win on Southern Lad and $15 the win on Anna's Joy!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 6

3:25pm

Suggested

Deploy (No.1), Brave Song (No.3) & Resin (No.7)

Dangers

Trekking (No.2) & Redouble (No.6)

This is the Luskin Star Stakes over the 1300m at listed level and this race has drawn together a really competitive field. This race does bat deep. There are quite a few winning chances here. The main form reference looks to be the race won by Trekking on the final day of The Championships at Randwick. Trekking was just that little bit closer in the run than Brave Song and Redouble who closed off strongly but were ultimately unable to run down Trekking. Trekking was second up into that race whereas Brave Song was coming into it second up and I am just banking on there perhaps being a bit more improvement in Brave Song coming into this race. Brave Song did beat Trekking at Caulfield back in the spring when Trekking drew an inside gate and was boxed away and Brave Song got the luck and won well. Brave Song draws out here and Trekking draws in and I am just hoping that Trekking might find a bit of trouble and that Brave Song can storm down the middle of the track and hopefully have full momentum and get that advantage. There isn’t much between them but at nearly double the price I think Brave Song is well worth a bet here. Keen to be with him. I think Resin is a massive chance in the race. This mare has raced really well in her three runs this campaign without the best of luck in my opinion. She was wide and handy to the speed in the first two runs of her campaign and did plenty of work in the run. She was just touched off in both of those after looking the winner. She then went into that race won by White Moss which was run at a crazy speed and she was probably just taken out of her comfort zone in that race. Since that run she has been freshened up and gone back to the trials and looked very impressive at Hawkesbury where she was strangled over the line but still won nicely. I like the fact for her that she is drawn gate one even though the track might not be suiting that draw. I think for her though it gives her a chance to be ridden with a smother and then be produced to have one crack at them and I think she will race more effectively that day. If she gets the breaks in running and can get to the right part of the track then she should prove hard to hold out. Around the $8-9 mark I think she is a really good bet in the race. My old mate Deploy also goes around off the back off a couple of good trials. This is a race well within his grasp and I won’t want to be losing on the race should he salute. He is good double figure odds and well worth saving on in my opinion.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Brave Song here, $25 the win on Resin and $15 the win on Deploy!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

4:05pm

Suggested

Zumbelina (No.7), Aqua D’ivina (No.10), Into The Abyss (No.11) & Asharani (No.14)

Dangers

Savatiano (No.3) & Moss Trip (No.6)

This is another race that looks wide open and looks to have plenty of chances. It is for the fillies and mares at Group Three level over the 1400m. I am playing around the favourites to some extent here. The one horse that is well in the market that I want to be with is Into The Abyss. Gee, she deserves to win a race does this filly. She is knocking on the door. She has clearly come back very well this time in. her first up run was good enough off a good trial before she really improved second up when just touched off by Multaja. She followed that up with a most unlucky second two weeks later at Randwick where she clearly should have won with even luck. The issue here is she again draws gate one and will need a touch of luck. She is a filly that settles off the pace and Glyn is a rider that can sometimes look for luck and go for the magic run rather than play the percentages. If the breaks come her way though I think she has her hoof right on the till. She is not too deep into her campaign whereas some of the other horses like Princess Posh, Savatiano and Siren’s Fury have been up for a little while now so I think there is more to come from Into The Abyss and with even luck she can be winning here. The other three horses I am backing all seem to be decent odds. Zumbelina should be ready now at her third run back from a spell. She has been solid if not spectacular in her two runs back but they have both been really solidly run races that have been owned by horses up on speed. She has struggled to get into those races. I feel this race may set up more favourably for a horse to come off the pace. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but I would expect her to be pretty close to her peak here third up and am expecting an improved run. She has come up around the $21 in the early markets and looks well worth a bet at that price. Aqua D’ivina resumed in the same race Zumbelina ran in last start but was only first up. She just got ran off her feet. I thought she found the line well enough without ever really looking like a winning chance. She is another I would expect to improve significantly here second up. The question mark with her is that she might be just looking for that little bit more ground now she is a bit more seasoned but if the speed is on and there is the chance for something running on to come over the top she does have a touch of quality about her. Around the $15 mark she looks worth a bet also. Asharani is the other horse I am going to have something on. She wasn’t too far off Into The Abyss last start in that race they both contested at Randwick. She got back along the inside and tried to track Into The Abyss through but found some similar traffic problems. I thought she went through the line really strongly. She is about two and a half times the price of Into The Abyss in this market and I don’t think there should be that much discrepancy. At those odds I think she is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

The $7 with TopBetta about Into The Abyss is good value for mine and will lock that in and have $30 the win on her! I will also have $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina and Asharani and $10 the win on Zumbelina!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 8

4:45pm

Suggested

Viridine (No.2) & Victorem (No.3)

Dangers

Dothraki (No.1) & Guard Of Honour (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on here. It is over the 1100m for the sprinters. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I tweeted about this race on Thursday morning and was pretty bullish that either Viridine or Victorem should be winning this race. They just look to have a fair bit on their opposition here. Viridine hasn’t won for a while but this is probably the weakest race he has contested for some time. He has been competing against some top class sprinters in good company and probably just hasn’t measured up. He hasn’t had the best of luck in a few of those races either. Even last start when he looked to get into a winnable race which was won by Trekking he just didn’t quite get clear running when he needed it to be able to build any momentum. I thought he probably went through the line with something more to give. I think he should avoid any traffic issues. The big Scone track should suit him perfectly and from a middle gate for Jason Collett he looks really well placed. This is probably d-day for him but you aren’t taking a ridiculously short price about him. He is $4+ in the market and if he runs to his best with even luck that price may look a real spoil. Happy to be with him. I probably do lean just slightly to Victorem. This is a race featuring a few horses that have been around the block a few times. Even the horse I just spoke about Virdiine has had a few chances and probably isn’t on the up anymore. This horse Victorem may very well still be on an upward spiral. He started to put it together last campaign particularly over the summer months in Brisbane when he ran some strong races. A couple of those were without luck but his win the listed Lough Neagh was dominant and the win of a good horse. He has had a good break since his last run at the end of December and has had two trials to get him ready for this first up assignment. He hasn’t trialled against much in those trials at Port Macquarie and Taree but he has looked very impressive in both of them. The pleasing thing is that he has jumped really well in both of those. If he can become a horse that can really take up a position on speed and sprint off it he is going to be very dangerous. This is a good test for him first up. He looks ready to go off the two trials and if he is going to take the step up this campaign to the next level then he probably wants to beat these in my opinion. Providing Ben Looker can get him into a good position from the middle to wide gate, hopefully tracking up with some cover in clear galloping room then he is going to be very hard to hold out. Keen to be with him and with the two of them at $4+ I think it is a super two bet play.

Betting strategy

The $4.60 about Victorem looks an absolute spoil with BetEasy and can see him starting much shorter than that! I will have $50 the win on him at that price and $40 the win on Viridine!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

11:25am

Suggested

Femme Fireball (No.2), Of The Day (No.3) & Mishani Electra (No.7)

Dangers

River Racer (No.1) & Awake The Stars (No.4)

Group One racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben this Saturday for the big Doomben 10,000 meeting as the winter carnival really starts to heat up. The weather as it generally does at this time of year in Brisbane is turning it on too. As a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday for what looks a really good day of racing. I am going to kick the day off in the first race for the fillies and mares which looks a pretty wide open affair. The main chances certainly look to be up towards the top of the market but given how open the race is there is plenty of value in those horses in my opnion. Certainly the horse for mine that looked to go up early overs in that market was Mishani Electra. This mare was formerly with Ben Currie and now finds herself in the Les Ross stables at Eagle Farm. Her form last campaign was really strong and she comes into this race first up. Ironically for a 1200m race this is a race that looked to lack a bit for early speed and a natural leader. She certainly fits that bill and for that reason I think she is well set up. She gets first look at a Doomben track rated as good with the rail in the true position from gate one and she should jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Happy to be with her. I am keeping a couple of other resuming mares on side. Of The Day finds a pretty winnable Class 6 race here. This is a mare that raced in listed company last campaign predominantly and was probably at the end of her campaign when she dropped back to this grade at her final run of the campaign. She wasn’t beaten far in that against the males. She resumes here against her own sex from a good draw with James McDonald engaged. That for me is all positive and indicates she might be ready to rumble first up. If James can hold a position on her close enough to the speed from that good draw and make use of it then she should be hard to hold out. Happy to be with her. I can’t leave Femme Fireball out of the equation. She is a very talented mare on her day and potentially the best horse in the race. This won’t be an easy assignment though first up around Doomben. She draws out and will most likely be spotting her rivals a pretty handy start. It is just whether she can get herself within striking distance or not. If she is within touch coming to the home turn and can have the leaders in her sight she could be hard to hold out. She has a big finish on her on her day. The thing that does have me confident about her running well is that she was very good in the early stages of her last campaign. If she returns this time around in the same vein, then I think this is a winnable race for her. I probably lean to the other two just ahead of her but don’t want to be losing should she salute.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Mishani Electra locking in the $7 about her! I will also have $20 the win on Of The Day and Femme Fireball!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Multaja (No.12)

Dangers

Racecourse Road (No.3) & Vega One (No.4)

This race is for the three year olds over the 1350m. We typically find that the Sydney carnival holds up in Brisbane at this time of year and for that reason I am pretty keen to back Multaja here in this race despite the short odds. She certainly doesn’t look to strike any world beaters in this race. Her form this time in has been excellent. She just got a bit too far back first up at Moonee Valley when she was well backed before returning to Sydney and stringing together two excellent wins. She won easily at Hawkesbury as favourite before winning the last race on Derby Day at Randwick. She then just got a bit too far back at Hawkesbury in a race that was dominated on speed and eventually won by Irithea. This just looks an ideal assignment for her. She draws gate five for Kerrin McEvoy to land just off the speed in a stalking position and from there she should be really hard to hold out. She is in the red, but around the $1.80-90 mark which to me looks a real spoil. The only doubt if any that I have is perhaps her ability to run a strong 1350m. Given how well she hit the line at Hawkesbury over the 1300m though I am confident she can handle that so happy to be with her here and think anything around that $1.80 mark or more is a good enough price.

Betting strategy

I will have $105 the win on Multaja here having half now at the $1.95 and the other half at Top Fluc tomorrow!

Race Outlay

$105

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Dealmaker (No.1) & The Golden Hand (No.9)

Dangers

Trusty Lad (No.2) & Purple Sector (No.4)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and again I am going to side with that Sydney carnival form to come to the fore. Until I see evidence otherwise at this Brisbane carnival I am pretty content in trusting that form to shine through. Dealmaker and Purple Sector are the two gallopers that bring that Sydney form here having come through the Carbine Club and Packer Plate at their last two starts. Dealmaker has had the better of Purple Sector in both of those races and I would expect him to do so again here. He does need to get another win on the board though. He is becoming a bit of a costly one for punters. He now only has the one win from thirteen starts but until his last couple of runs he had been racing in some of the top company. He had raced in the Australian and Rosehill Guineas and you only have to look at his Australian Guineas run where he was only just over two lengths off Mystic Journey to see that he is a horse of quality. I think this race easily represents the best chance for him to win a race this campaign. He draws gate two for James McDonald so he should get a lovely run in transit and from there he just needs the breaks to come his way and he should be right in the finish. Happy to be with him. I am going to save on The Golden Hind who is a horse going through the grades here in Queensland and might just have that little bit of x-factor about him. He is certainly the horse on the way up. He got the job done two starts back over the 1400m at the Sunshine Coast to break his maiden before getting up to the mile last Sunday and beating his rivals into submission with a near ten length victory. I just think he might be the horse that can take it to the next level here and as a result will save on him at the double figure odds just in case. I think unless Dealmaker has come to the end of his campaign or strikes some bad luck from the inside draw though he should be winning.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Dealmaker here and save with $15 the win on The Golden Hind!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8 - Doomben 10,000

3:50pm

Suggested

Osborne Bulls (No.1) & The Bostonian (No.8)

Dangers

Nature Strip (No.2) & Champagne Cuddles (No.11)

This is the big race of the day punters. It is the Group One Doomben 10,000 over the 1200m at Doomben. It promises to be a fascinating race. There looks to be a lot of speed that is for sure. Any race that features Nature Strip certainly has a lot of speed in it. He looks like he will have some company here. Nothing will match him for early speed but the likes of I’m A Rippa, Dollar For Dollar and White Moss will all push forward and keep him rolling. I don’t mind Nature Strip drawing out. I think that is a big advantage for him. He can sometimes be a fraction slow initially out of the gates before he builds the revs and really gets into his work. For that reason an outside draw is preferable to an inside draw. The question is can he run out a strong 1200m? I have no doubt Doomben is a good track for him but there has to be a bit of a question mark on him at the end of the 1200m. For that reason I am giving Osborne Bulls one last chance. He certainly isn’t running badly, he just keeps finding one better. This is certainly in terms of the races he has contested this campaign, the weakest. He draws in gate four so I am hoping Kerrin McEvoy can hold him just that little bit closer to the speed. I think if he can be within striking distance coming into the straight and the breaks come his way that he will be capable of getting over the top of them. At the better price than Nature Strip I think he is worth a bet as I really can’t split them and if anything probably had Osborne Bulls rated a little bit shorter. Keen to be with him, for one last time maybe. I think I said that last time. Let’s hope this is his day. The horse I am saving on in the race is The Bostonian. This New Zealand galloper raced really well here in Queensland last winter and returns for the first time since then. He raced well through his recent New Zealand campaign without ever really hitting any great heights. The key here is that he comes into the race first up. He is unbeaten in four first up runs, his 1200m record is strong and he was dominant in his only run here at Doomben. This is undoubtedly his toughest test but he draws well to get a suck run on the speed and I think at $51 you can have worse bets than that.

Betting strategy

There is good support for Osborne Bulls and I will lock in the $3.40 with QLD TAB Fixed odds and have $65 the win on him! I will save with $5 the win on The Bostonian at the $61 with the same outlet and also have $10 the place on him at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:16pm

Suggested

Arkham Knight (No.1) & Debt Collector (No.4)

Dangers

Vinland (No.3) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.5)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday with the running of the South Australian Derby at Morphettville. The rains have arrived in Adelaide and as a result we will be racing on a soft track on Saturday. This week’s meeting certainly doesn’t look as strong as what last week’s was and as a result I have just found a couple of races to bet into. I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m. I am pretty keen on Debt Collector here. I have been following this galloper for a little while now and been on him at both runs this campaign. He has performed well in both those runs but just had little luck. He has been caught wide and back and probably don’t a bit too much work in the run covering ground which has dulled his typically dynamic fashion. I think he can bounce back here though. He finally draws an inside gate and while he will need luck from that gate for Dwayne Dunn, I think it will suit his racing style. He can be smothered up in behind them and produced for that one big finish where he is most effective. He comes into the race third up as I mentioned and given that he should prove hard to hold out. Keen to be in his corner. The horse I am saving on is Arkham Knight. He is another that has been really good in both runs this time in. He ran third in a listed race last start and comes back to a Benchmark 86 here on Saturday. While he goes up in weight I think he looks well placed. Like Debt Collector he comes into the race third up from a spell and will certainly appreciate the soft conditions. He won a pretty wet track at The Bool last May and his overall soft track form record reads well. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and around the $9-10 mark I think he is an excellent bet here.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Debt Collector and save with $20 the win on Arkham Knight here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7 - South Australian Derby

4:36pm

Suggested

Declarationofheart (No.3), Classic Weiwei (No.6), Mangione (No.10) & Qafila (No.16)

Dangers

Chapada (No.1), Mr Quickie (No.2) & Ridgewood Drive (No.8)

This is a wide open South Australian Derby as you can tell from the number of horses that I have mentioned above. It isn’t a race I want to really tumble into too many of the favourites in and as such was happy to play it a little bit wider with a few at odds. I am hoping the form from The Chairman’s here two weeks ago holds up. I thought Declarationofheart’s win in that race was super. He looked in a bit of trouble coming to the home turn when he was stuck back in traffic inside horses with a wall of horses in front of him but he found a way through and was really strong through the line. That win followed a solid run in the Derby in Sydney. I think that will hold him in good stead for a race of this nature. He draws ideally for Clayton Douglas to get a gun run in behind the speed and while there is the soft track question mark, if he handles it I think he will be hard to beat so happy to be with him. The emerging horse in the race might be Classic Weiwei who made up a ton of ground from the back of the field in that same race behind Declarationofheart. He is the lightly raced horse going through the grades on the way up. He got a long way back last start and hit the line strongly as he did in his previous start win. He is another that is unproven on a wet track but if he handles it he looks certain to run the trip right out. He draws wide so he will be back in the run but I would expect him to be really hitting the line and around the $20 mark he looks a good bet to me. The three year old fillies have been very strong this year and for that reason I want to keep Qafila on side who was a big run last week behind Princess Jenni. She just got a bit too far back and hit the line really strongly. Her run in the Oaks in the spring in Melbourne was also quite good when covering a heap of extra ground the entire journey. She draws a nice middle gate here and as I said the form of the fillies against the boys right throughout the season in these three year old races gives me a lot of confidence that she can run well here. At double figure odds on the week’s back up I am happy to have something on her here. The other horse at big odds I am going to back is Mangione. Chris Waller brings this horse over from Sydney after being beaten as an odds on favourite last start on the Kensington track. If you go back three starts this horse wasn’t too far behind the Derby winner in Sydney in Angel Of Truth and given that form reference you can relate him to Declarationofheart. He has the blinkers go on here from an inside gate with Dwayne Dunn on board and already has a couple of soft track wins to his credit. Given all that I thought he was probably over the odds around that $30-40 mark in early markets. At those odds I certainly think he is worth a small ticket. The chances obviously don’t end there. ChapadaMr Quickie and Ridgewood Drive are well in the market and all great winning chances but I am just going to play the race a little wider and hope to get a result.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Declarationofheart, $20 the win on Qafila and $10 the win on both Classic Weiwei and Mangione!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:30pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Seven Year Reward (No.7) & Akkadian (No.8)

Dangers

William Thomas (No.5) & Delvecchio (No.13)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for once we have a bit of rain about in Melbourne town. We have had a bit during the week and the track is in the soft range. Caulfield drains amazingly well though and some sunshine on Saturday might see it get pretty close to good. I think it will stay in the soft range though and we will be looking for horses that will appreciate that little bit of give. The rail is out ten metres so I wouldn’t be surprised if a fair bit of the track is used with that give in it. I am kicking off the day in the second race which is over the 1100m. I thought this race was fairly open. There certainly looks to be some good speed engaged. I thought that might set it up for Akkadian sitting off the pace coming back in trip to be really strong at the end of the race. This three year old resumed with a strong win at Pakenham first up before going to the 1400m second up and running fairly in a listed race in Adelaide. He is a horse that has been quite dynamic coming off a strong speed over shorter trips and with the blinkers on here with a good speed up front I think he looks really dangerous with Williams on board. Around that $8 mark I think he is worth a ticket here. Like To Think So is a handy horse resuming from a spell here. His form last preparation around the likes of Debt Collector, Haunted and Bravo Tango certainly read well for a race of this nature. He had a recent jump out at Bendigo and he went like a rocket there easily despatching of his rivals by a big margin. He is a horse that typically races well fresh and while 1100m maybe short of his best trip, the way he went in that jump out suggests to me he can sprint really well fresh so keen to be in his corner at the double figure odds. Seven Year Reward comes through the Propelle race which a few others do in this race. He fought on well in that race after being wide on speed. I am hoping that from an inside gate here he might be able to land on speed either leading or outside the leader and from there could prove hard to get past with a bit of race fitness on side so will have something on him at double figure odds. I have no doubt William Thomas and Delvecchio are probably the best two horses in the race but both draw wide and will be well back so I think they are a bit of a risk at their respective prices so happy to play around them with a couple of other runners at odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Akkadian here and save with $15 the win on both Like To Think So and Seven Year Reward!

Race Outlay

$55

Race 3

1:05pm

Suggested

Zoutori (No.1), I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.9) & Shandy (No.10)

Dangers

Orcein (No.4)

This race is over the mile for the three year olds. Zoutori has benefited from a couple of perfect runs in transit at his last two starts and only two starts for this campaign and won impressively. The slight concern with him coming into this race is that fact that he has had a dream run in transit. Last start at Flemington he was just given a gun ride by Williams and duly saluted. He has a few things that punters may see as being against him here. He steps up to the mile he rises to 60kgs and there is obviously that potential for him to not get the perfect run. In saying that I think he is a horse that is just going to continue to improve through the campaign. He draws a middle gate again for Williams and despite the rise in weight and trip I think he is still the horse they all have to beat so I don’t want to lose on the race should he salute. I am certainly not as keen as I was at Flemington though. The stable mate Shandy is deep into her debut campaign but seems to be improving with each and every run. She is a big danger here. She ran well on debut before winning her maiden at her second start. She then beat all bar Big Night Out who she meets again here and was a fraction unlucky behind Tarwin here last start in a race quite a few horses here come through. I think she will appreciate drawing a bit wider on the track in clear galloping room and if she can get into a good spot in running she will be finishing off strongly late. Happy to be with her. The best roughy in the race might be the resuming I’m Dun Dreamin’. This galloper won on debut at massive odds at Cranbourne back in August before doing a fair bit of work in the run at his second start at Sale when running fifth. He was immediately spelled post that run. He had a jump out at Ballarat back in March which he looked to go particularly well in. I haven’t seen a jump out since but I know a few good judges I speak with are quite keen on his chances in this race if he is fit enough. The market will probably tell a tale but if the money does come for him I think it will be a sign he will run a big race. Around that $15-20 mark I am happy to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

Big Night Out's scratching has really taken the fat out of this market! Zoutori is pretty short now! I will have $50 the win on him, $25 the win on Shandy and $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' but the race has lost some punting luster now!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 4

1:40pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.2), Kazio (No.6) & Riyadh (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.5) & He Exscels (No.8)

Gee, this is a tricky race. I struggled to wrap my head around this one. It is over the mile and there is a small field but there are a heap of winning chances. I was pretty disappointed in Mahamedeis last start but I am going to back up on him here. I think the mile might be his best trip. His three runs prior to the last start failure this campaign were all excellent. He finished well back first up but the run was actually better than it looked. He was then very unlucky second up at Bendigo in the Golden Mile before winning well here at his third up run. Like I said, I was quite keen on him last start but he was really plain. I am going to give him another chance back to the mile here as I think if he runs up to those previous runs here he will be hard to roll. Kazio is another that is racing really well this time in and is pretty deep into what has been a long campaign. I just think this race might pan out well for him. He looks one of the few horses in the race that might be capable of taking up the running and owning it from the front. I think that might be the big advantage for him. He was beaten by Widgee Turf at level weights last start which is a pretty good reference for a race like this. While his form here at the track and form over the mile doesn’t read particularly well, I doubt he would have found a race set up as well for him in that time. He has an in form Brett Prebble on board who is very much in the zone at the moment and happy to be with him. The best roughy in the race for mine is clearly Riyadh. This horse has really good third up form and his two runs back from a spell this time in have been really good. He carried big weights at both those runs at Pakenham and here last start. He gets significant weight relief here dropping down to 52kgs after the claim for Michael Poy. His mile record is good and that third up record as I mentioned suggests he might be ready to deliver a peak performance for the campaign here. At double figure odds happy to have something on him. I am obviously worried about Guizot who looks to be flying but gee, that was his race at The Bool and he got the job done, but this is a bit harder so happy to just play around him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Mahamedeis and Kazio here and $15 the win on Riyadh!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

3:40pm

Suggested

Lady Vega (No.6), Bam’s On Fire (No.10), Delusions (No.11) & The Commoner (No.13)

Dangers

Propelle (No.1) & Notation (No.4)

This is another good race here for the three year old fillies over the 1100m. There look to be a host of winning chances in this race. Propelle has come up the favourite in the race off the back of a dominant win last start but I thought she might be worth taking on here. She shoots up in weight, draws wide and might be spotting a few of these a start. I think there might be a few handy ones amongst her rivals too. Bam’s On Fire is a really interesting runner in my opinion. This filly raced in Perth as a two year old against some of the better horses in that part of the world and was quite competitive. She then made her way to Victoria and into the Ciaron Maher stables but was beaten comfortably at her first run here by the promising Leiter when a $1.50 favourite at Bendigo back in November. She was immediately spelled following that run and resumed at Benalla a couple of weeks ago where she absolutely bolted in her maiden. It was a track gallop and she won by a big margin with plenty in hand and the time was comparable to other races over that same distance on the day. She draws to land on speed here and I think she will be hard to beat. The only issue is she is down to race at Scone and Morphettville as well as here. I am hoping she comes here as I think she will be hard to beat and happy to be with her. Her stable mate Delusions is another horse I think can run well here. She may prove to be the reason that Bam’s On Fire goes interstate as the stable may want to separate them. Delusions is an interesting runner. She won impressively at Swan Hill on debut and then went to Caulfield on Caulfield Cup Day and started favourite in a race there. She ran poorly and was immediately spelled post that run. I loved her recent Cranbourne trial though. I thought she had plenty more to give and looked really strong through the line. She draws a nice barrier here to get a good run just off the speed and at double figure odds I think she is worth a bet here. The Commoner is another interesting runner here. She won well on debut at Cranbourne back in early March when leading all the way and winning by a big margin. Since then she has been back to the jump outs at Flemington recently and gone particularly well. She has no weight on her back, has a low barrier draw to jump on the bunny and she might prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner. Lady Vega is the other horse I want to be on in the race. She resumed from a spell with a good win at Ballarat and then was good last week at Flemington I thought. She loomed to win that race but seemed to just peak on her run late. I like her on the quick back up here and she is a pretty talented horse in my opinion so happy to have something on her at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bam's On Fire, $25 the win on The Commoner, $15 the win on Delusions and $10 the win on Vega Magic here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:20pm

Suggested

Leonardo da Hinchi (No.8)

Dangers

Jungle Edge (No.1) & Blaze Forth (No.5)

This looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. It is interesting mainly because of the appearance of this very smart galloper in Leonardo Da Hinchi who makes his debut for the Mick Price stable after formerly being in the Weir camp. His form around Brutal and The Autumn Sun through that three year old spring campaign certainly reads well for a race of this nature. This just looks a really good race for him. He strikes a field of sprinters that have been to the well a few times and he comes in as the horse very much untapped and on the rise. That was just his first racing campaign in the spring and he performed particularly well. With natural improvement from that campaign into his second one here you can only think he is going to come back a better horse this time in. If he does that, this race looks to be at his mercy. He has a few races in Brisbane that he is being targeted for and if he is to measure up in those bigger races there then he is going to want to be winning this. It isn’t a field of vintage sprinters. Jungle Edge is a bit like a vintage red wine however but I would expect Leonardo Da Hinchi to have his measure with even luck in the race. Adding to the confidence I have in him is the fact that he has jumped out really well down at Terang where he has been stabled with Beetroot Williams. He towelled up a field of gallopers in his most recent jump out down there. A few of those gallopers went to The Bool and performed particularly well too. There is a lot to like. I like the fact he is drawn out and I think if Michael Dee can have him in a nice trailing position with cover peeling out wide with full momentum he should be able to get over the top of them. He only has 54kgs on his back and I think the $3 on offer at the moment probably won’t be there on race day. He looks to be just about the best of the day in the country to me. Keen.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Leonardo Da Hinchi here having half now at the $3 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 1

12:15pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.1)

Dangers

Wild Planet (No.2) & Signore Fox (No.3)

The main race meeting in New South Wales this Saturday comes from Scone for what has become their big two day carnival. It starts with the Cup on Friday (I will tweet out a couple I like on that program) and ends with the big stand alone Saturday program. It is another strong meeting. Scone is an interesting track. Typically by the second day it is no disadvantage to be coming away from the fence and wider draws aren’t really disadvantaged. It is a big long straight and most if not all horses get their chance. It is a good meeting likely to be on a good track looking at the forecast and hopefully there are a few winners for us. I am kicking off in the first race of the day which is strangely enough one of the feature races of the day in the Inglis Guineas for the three year olds. It is only a small field of nine but it looks a competitive race. Military Zone kept his unbeaten second up record in tact last start with a strong win in the Hawkesbury Guineas. I thought there was plenty of merit to the win. He came from off the speed, rounded up the leaders and then had to hold off the talented Trope who had the last shot at him. They put a gap on the rest of the field and I think that gives real merit to the victory. I see no reason why he won’t win again. He comes up against a couple of runners through different form lines who do look dangerous here in Wild Planet and Signore Fox. Wild Planet has been brave in defeat at his two runs this time in off tough runs while Signore Fox won easily at Hawkesbury in a weaker race on the same day Military Zone won. I am just of the opinion that Military Zone is a good horse in the zone on the way up and if this track is favouring horses getting out wider then him being back off the speed from the outside draw won’t be an issue. Happy to be with him to start the day here.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Military Zone here to kick the day off!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Southern Lad (No.5), Wagner (No.6) & Anna’s Joy (No.8)

Dangers

Star Crossed (No.10) & Jack’s Bar (No.18)

This race draws a big field every year. It is a sprint race over the 1100m and it is always one of the more wide open races of the carnival. I did think that this year it perhaps had a pretty long tail and that perhaps the value was with those horses that were well in the market. Wagner is the horse that I certainly think looks hardest to beat. His form this time in has been solid and I think he finds a really winnable race here. He won well first up on the Kensington track before taking on that fast race won by Krone featuring Wild Planet and Classique Legend at Rosehill. He then wasn’t beaten far by Americana Magic one of his rivals in this race at Gosford two starts back before an excellent run at Hawkesbury last start behind Signore Fox. They really went along at a solid tempo in that race and he was up there making that speed. He stuck on well to run second. That race was over the 1300m and I think coming back to the 1100m here on the big Scone track is a big plus for him. His record at this trip is excellent and even though most of those runs have come when he was fresh I think this race sets up well for him. He draws a nice middle gate for Tommy Berry to settle just off the speed and that should see him hard to beat with even luck. Happy to be with him Southern Lad was an interesting run first up at Randwick over the 1000m. I backed him that day off a really nice trial and I thought halfway down the straight he was going to gobble his rivals up. He just seemed to peak on his run 100m from home. He was carrying a big weight there first up chasing a fast tempo for most of the way and he was also a big drifter in the market which suggested he might be in need of the run. I am hoping with that run under the belt he will strip a lot fitter here and hopefully finish the race off with a bit more gusto. He gets good weight relief after the claim for Billy Owen and the extra 100m in trip should be to his liking. He draws wide so he is going to be well back and is another that will be hoping that the track is suiting that type of runner. I think if he has gone on from that first up run he will be right in the thick of things here as he is a talented galloper that I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. Happy to be with him also. The other runner I will save on in the race is Anna’s Joy. This mare ran super in the Wagga Town Plate last Thursday. She was just in behind the leaders in that race and went back to the inside to try and finish the race off. By that stage of the day horses seemed to be appreciating getting a bit wider on the track and I am not sure she was in the best ground. She stuck to her task well though to be beaten just over a length. Back to the 1100m here I think suits and I don’t see this race being too much tougher if tougher at all than that Wagga Town Plate. I think if she can reproduce a run to that level she will be in the finish and around the $15 mark looks a good bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wagner, $25 the win on Southern Lad and $15 the win on Anna's Joy!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 6

3:25pm

Suggested

Deploy (No.1), Brave Song (No.3) & Resin (No.7)

Dangers

Trekking (No.2) & Redouble (No.6)

This is the Luskin Star Stakes over the 1300m at listed level and this race has drawn together a really competitive field. This race does bat deep. There are quite a few winning chances here. The main form reference looks to be the race won by Trekking on the final day of The Championships at Randwick. Trekking was just that little bit closer in the run than Brave Song and Redouble who closed off strongly but were ultimately unable to run down Trekking. Trekking was second up into that race whereas Brave Song was coming into it second up and I am just banking on there perhaps being a bit more improvement in Brave Song coming into this race. Brave Song did beat Trekking at Caulfield back in the spring when Trekking drew an inside gate and was boxed away and Brave Song got the luck and won well. Brave Song draws out here and Trekking draws in and I am just hoping that Trekking might find a bit of trouble and that Brave Song can storm down the middle of the track and hopefully have full momentum and get that advantage. There isn’t much between them but at nearly double the price I think Brave Song is well worth a bet here. Keen to be with him. I think Resin is a massive chance in the race. This mare has raced really well in her three runs this campaign without the best of luck in my opinion. She was wide and handy to the speed in the first two runs of her campaign and did plenty of work in the run. She was just touched off in both of those after looking the winner. She then went into that race won by White Moss which was run at a crazy speed and she was probably just taken out of her comfort zone in that race. Since that run she has been freshened up and gone back to the trials and looked very impressive at Hawkesbury where she was strangled over the line but still won nicely. I like the fact for her that she is drawn gate one even though the track might not be suiting that draw. I think for her though it gives her a chance to be ridden with a smother and then be produced to have one crack at them and I think she will race more effectively that day. If she gets the breaks in running and can get to the right part of the track then she should prove hard to hold out. Around the $8-9 mark I think she is a really good bet in the race. My old mate Deploy also goes around off the back off a couple of good trials. This is a race well within his grasp and I won’t want to be losing on the race should he salute. He is good double figure odds and well worth saving on in my opinion.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Brave Song here, $25 the win on Resin and $15 the win on Deploy!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

4:05pm

Suggested

Zumbelina (No.7), Aqua D’ivina (No.10), Into The Abyss (No.11) & Asharani (No.14)

Dangers

Savatiano (No.3) & Moss Trip (No.6)

This is another race that looks wide open and looks to have plenty of chances. It is for the fillies and mares at Group Three level over the 1400m. I am playing around the favourites to some extent here. The one horse that is well in the market that I want to be with is Into The Abyss. Gee, she deserves to win a race does this filly. She is knocking on the door. She has clearly come back very well this time in. her first up run was good enough off a good trial before she really improved second up when just touched off by Multaja. She followed that up with a most unlucky second two weeks later at Randwick where she clearly should have won with even luck. The issue here is she again draws gate one and will need a touch of luck. She is a filly that settles off the pace and Glyn is a rider that can sometimes look for luck and go for the magic run rather than play the percentages. If the breaks come her way though I think she has her hoof right on the till. She is not too deep into her campaign whereas some of the other horses like Princess Posh, Savatiano and Siren’s Fury have been up for a little while now so I think there is more to come from Into The Abyss and with even luck she can be winning here. The other three horses I am backing all seem to be decent odds. Zumbelina should be ready now at her third run back from a spell. She has been solid if not spectacular in her two runs back but they have both been really solidly run races that have been owned by horses up on speed. She has struggled to get into those races. I feel this race may set up more favourably for a horse to come off the pace. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but I would expect her to be pretty close to her peak here third up and am expecting an improved run. She has come up around the $21 in the early markets and looks well worth a bet at that price. Aqua D’ivina resumed in the same race Zumbelina ran in last start but was only first up. She just got ran off her feet. I thought she found the line well enough without ever really looking like a winning chance. She is another I would expect to improve significantly here second up. The question mark with her is that she might be just looking for that little bit more ground now she is a bit more seasoned but if the speed is on and there is the chance for something running on to come over the top she does have a touch of quality about her. Around the $15 mark she looks worth a bet also. Asharani is the other horse I am going to have something on. She wasn’t too far off Into The Abyss last start in that race they both contested at Randwick. She got back along the inside and tried to track Into The Abyss through but found some similar traffic problems. I thought she went through the line really strongly. She is about two and a half times the price of Into The Abyss in this market and I don’t think there should be that much discrepancy. At those odds I think she is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

The $7 with TopBetta about Into The Abyss is good value for mine and will lock that in and have $30 the win on her! I will also have $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina and Asharani and $10 the win on Zumbelina!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 8

4:45pm

Suggested

Viridine (No.2) & Victorem (No.3)

Dangers

Dothraki (No.1) & Guard Of Honour (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on here. It is over the 1100m for the sprinters. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I tweeted about this race on Thursday morning and was pretty bullish that either Viridine or Victorem should be winning this race. They just look to have a fair bit on their opposition here. Viridine hasn’t won for a while but this is probably the weakest race he has contested for some time. He has been competing against some top class sprinters in good company and probably just hasn’t measured up. He hasn’t had the best of luck in a few of those races either. Even last start when he looked to get into a winnable race which was won by Trekking he just didn’t quite get clear running when he needed it to be able to build any momentum. I thought he probably went through the line with something more to give. I think he should avoid any traffic issues. The big Scone track should suit him perfectly and from a middle gate for Jason Collett he looks really well placed. This is probably d-day for him but you aren’t taking a ridiculously short price about him. He is $4+ in the market and if he runs to his best with even luck that price may look a real spoil. Happy to be with him. I probably do lean just slightly to Victorem. This is a race featuring a few horses that have been around the block a few times. Even the horse I just spoke about Virdiine has had a few chances and probably isn’t on the up anymore. This horse Victorem may very well still be on an upward spiral. He started to put it together last campaign particularly over the summer months in Brisbane when he ran some strong races. A couple of those were without luck but his win the listed Lough Neagh was dominant and the win of a good horse. He has had a good break since his last run at the end of December and has had two trials to get him ready for this first up assignment. He hasn’t trialled against much in those trials at Port Macquarie and Taree but he has looked very impressive in both of them. The pleasing thing is that he has jumped really well in both of those. If he can become a horse that can really take up a position on speed and sprint off it he is going to be very dangerous. This is a good test for him first up. He looks ready to go off the two trials and if he is going to take the step up this campaign to the next level then he probably wants to beat these in my opinion. Providing Ben Looker can get him into a good position from the middle to wide gate, hopefully tracking up with some cover in clear galloping room then he is going to be very hard to hold out. Keen to be with him and with the two of them at $4+ I think it is a super two bet play.

Betting strategy

The $4.60 about Victorem looks an absolute spoil with BetEasy and can see him starting much shorter than that! I will have $50 the win on him at that price and $40 the win on Viridine!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

11:25am

Suggested

Femme Fireball (No.2), Of The Day (No.3) & Mishani Electra (No.7)

Dangers

River Racer (No.1) & Awake The Stars (No.4)

Group One racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben this Saturday for the big Doomben 10,000 meeting as the winter carnival really starts to heat up. The weather as it generally does at this time of year in Brisbane is turning it on too. As a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday for what looks a really good day of racing. I am going to kick the day off in the first race for the fillies and mares which looks a pretty wide open affair. The main chances certainly look to be up towards the top of the market but given how open the race is there is plenty of value in those horses in my opnion. Certainly the horse for mine that looked to go up early overs in that market was Mishani Electra. This mare was formerly with Ben Currie and now finds herself in the Les Ross stables at Eagle Farm. Her form last campaign was really strong and she comes into this race first up. Ironically for a 1200m race this is a race that looked to lack a bit for early speed and a natural leader. She certainly fits that bill and for that reason I think she is well set up. She gets first look at a Doomben track rated as good with the rail in the true position from gate one and she should jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Happy to be with her. I am keeping a couple of other resuming mares on side. Of The Day finds a pretty winnable Class 6 race here. This is a mare that raced in listed company last campaign predominantly and was probably at the end of her campaign when she dropped back to this grade at her final run of the campaign. She wasn’t beaten far in that against the males. She resumes here against her own sex from a good draw with James McDonald engaged. That for me is all positive and indicates she might be ready to rumble first up. If James can hold a position on her close enough to the speed from that good draw and make use of it then she should be hard to hold out. Happy to be with her. I can’t leave Femme Fireball out of the equation. She is a very talented mare on her day and potentially the best horse in the race. This won’t be an easy assignment though first up around Doomben. She draws out and will most likely be spotting her rivals a pretty handy start. It is just whether she can get herself within striking distance or not. If she is within touch coming to the home turn and can have the leaders in her sight she could be hard to hold out. She has a big finish on her on her day. The thing that does have me confident about her running well is that she was very good in the early stages of her last campaign. If she returns this time around in the same vein, then I think this is a winnable race for her. I probably lean to the other two just ahead of her but don’t want to be losing should she salute.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Mishani Electra locking in the $7 about her! I will also have $20 the win on Of The Day and Femme Fireball!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Multaja (No.12)

Dangers

Racecourse Road (No.3) & Vega One (No.4)

This race is for the three year olds over the 1350m. We typically find that the Sydney carnival holds up in Brisbane at this time of year and for that reason I am pretty keen to back Multaja here in this race despite the short odds. She certainly doesn’t look to strike any world beaters in this race. Her form this time in has been excellent. She just got a bit too far back first up at Moonee Valley when she was well backed before returning to Sydney and stringing together two excellent wins. She won easily at Hawkesbury as favourite before winning the last race on Derby Day at Randwick. She then just got a bit too far back at Hawkesbury in a race that was dominated on speed and eventually won by Irithea. This just looks an ideal assignment for her. She draws gate five for Kerrin McEvoy to land just off the speed in a stalking position and from there she should be really hard to hold out. She is in the red, but around the $1.80-90 mark which to me looks a real spoil. The only doubt if any that I have is perhaps her ability to run a strong 1350m. Given how well she hit the line at Hawkesbury over the 1300m though I am confident she can handle that so happy to be with her here and think anything around that $1.80 mark or more is a good enough price.

Betting strategy

I will have $105 the win on Multaja here having half now at the $1.95 and the other half at Top Fluc tomorrow!

Race Outlay

$105

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Dealmaker (No.1) & The Golden Hand (No.9)

Dangers

Trusty Lad (No.2) & Purple Sector (No.4)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and again I am going to side with that Sydney carnival form to come to the fore. Until I see evidence otherwise at this Brisbane carnival I am pretty content in trusting that form to shine through. Dealmaker and Purple Sector are the two gallopers that bring that Sydney form here having come through the Carbine Club and Packer Plate at their last two starts. Dealmaker has had the better of Purple Sector in both of those races and I would expect him to do so again here. He does need to get another win on the board though. He is becoming a bit of a costly one for punters. He now only has the one win from thirteen starts but until his last couple of runs he had been racing in some of the top company. He had raced in the Australian and Rosehill Guineas and you only have to look at his Australian Guineas run where he was only just over two lengths off Mystic Journey to see that he is a horse of quality. I think this race easily represents the best chance for him to win a race this campaign. He draws gate two for James McDonald so he should get a lovely run in transit and from there he just needs the breaks to come his way and he should be right in the finish. Happy to be with him. I am going to save on The Golden Hind who is a horse going through the grades here in Queensland and might just have that little bit of x-factor about him. He is certainly the horse on the way up. He got the job done two starts back over the 1400m at the Sunshine Coast to break his maiden before getting up to the mile last Sunday and beating his rivals into submission with a near ten length victory. I just think he might be the horse that can take it to the next level here and as a result will save on him at the double figure odds just in case. I think unless Dealmaker has come to the end of his campaign or strikes some bad luck from the inside draw though he should be winning.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Dealmaker here and save with $15 the win on The Golden Hind!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8 - Doomben 10,000

3:50pm

Suggested

Osborne Bulls (No.1) & The Bostonian (No.8)

Dangers

Nature Strip (No.2) & Champagne Cuddles (No.11)

This is the big race of the day punters. It is the Group One Doomben 10,000 over the 1200m at Doomben. It promises to be a fascinating race. There looks to be a lot of speed that is for sure. Any race that features Nature Strip certainly has a lot of speed in it. He looks like he will have some company here. Nothing will match him for early speed but the likes of I’m A Rippa, Dollar For Dollar and White Moss will all push forward and keep him rolling. I don’t mind Nature Strip drawing out. I think that is a big advantage for him. He can sometimes be a fraction slow initially out of the gates before he builds the revs and really gets into his work. For that reason an outside draw is preferable to an inside draw. The question is can he run out a strong 1200m? I have no doubt Doomben is a good track for him but there has to be a bit of a question mark on him at the end of the 1200m. For that reason I am giving Osborne Bulls one last chance. He certainly isn’t running badly, he just keeps finding one better. This is certainly in terms of the races he has contested this campaign, the weakest. He draws in gate four so I am hoping Kerrin McEvoy can hold him just that little bit closer to the speed. I think if he can be within striking distance coming into the straight and the breaks come his way that he will be capable of getting over the top of them. At the better price than Nature Strip I think he is worth a bet as I really can’t split them and if anything probably had Osborne Bulls rated a little bit shorter. Keen to be with him, for one last time maybe. I think I said that last time. Let’s hope this is his day. The horse I am saving on in the race is The Bostonian. This New Zealand galloper raced really well here in Queensland last winter and returns for the first time since then. He raced well through his recent New Zealand campaign without ever really hitting any great heights. The key here is that he comes into the race first up. He is unbeaten in four first up runs, his 1200m record is strong and he was dominant in his only run here at Doomben. This is undoubtedly his toughest test but he draws well to get a suck run on the speed and I think at $51 you can have worse bets than that.

Betting strategy

There is good support for Osborne Bulls and I will lock in the $3.40 with QLD TAB Fixed odds and have $65 the win on him! I will save with $5 the win on The Bostonian at the $61 with the same outlet and also have $10 the place on him at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:16pm

Suggested

Arkham Knight (No.1) & Debt Collector (No.4)

Dangers

Vinland (No.3) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.5)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday with the running of the South Australian Derby at Morphettville. The rains have arrived in Adelaide and as a result we will be racing on a soft track on Saturday. This week’s meeting certainly doesn’t look as strong as what last week’s was and as a result I have just found a couple of races to bet into. I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m. I am pretty keen on Debt Collector here. I have been following this galloper for a little while now and been on him at both runs this campaign. He has performed well in both those runs but just had little luck. He has been caught wide and back and probably don’t a bit too much work in the run covering ground which has dulled his typically dynamic fashion. I think he can bounce back here though. He finally draws an inside gate and while he will need luck from that gate for Dwayne Dunn, I think it will suit his racing style. He can be smothered up in behind them and produced for that one big finish where he is most effective. He comes into the race third up as I mentioned and given that he should prove hard to hold out. Keen to be in his corner. The horse I am saving on is Arkham Knight. He is another that has been really good in both runs this time in. He ran third in a listed race last start and comes back to a Benchmark 86 here on Saturday. While he goes up in weight I think he looks well placed. Like Debt Collector he comes into the race third up from a spell and will certainly appreciate the soft conditions. He won a pretty wet track at The Bool last May and his overall soft track form record reads well. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and around the $9-10 mark I think he is an excellent bet here.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Debt Collector and save with $20 the win on Arkham Knight here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7 - South Australian Derby

4:36pm

Suggested

Declarationofheart (No.3), Classic Weiwei (No.6), Mangione (No.10) & Qafila (No.16)

Dangers

Chapada (No.1), Mr Quickie (No.2) & Ridgewood Drive (No.8)

This is a wide open South Australian Derby as you can tell from the number of horses that I have mentioned above. It isn’t a race I want to really tumble into too many of the favourites in and as such was happy to play it a little bit wider with a few at odds. I am hoping the form from The Chairman’s here two weeks ago holds up. I thought Declarationofheart’s win in that race was super. He looked in a bit of trouble coming to the home turn when he was stuck back in traffic inside horses with a wall of horses in front of him but he found a way through and was really strong through the line. That win followed a solid run in the Derby in Sydney. I think that will hold him in good stead for a race of this nature. He draws ideally for Clayton Douglas to get a gun run in behind the speed and while there is the soft track question mark, if he handles it I think he will be hard to beat so happy to be with him. The emerging horse in the race might be Classic Weiwei who made up a ton of ground from the back of the field in that same race behind Declarationofheart. He is the lightly raced horse going through the grades on the way up. He got a long way back last start and hit the line strongly as he did in his previous start win. He is another that is unproven on a wet track but if he handles it he looks certain to run the trip right out. He draws wide so he will be back in the run but I would expect him to be really hitting the line and around the $20 mark he looks a good bet to me. The three year old fillies have been very strong this year and for that reason I want to keep Qafila on side who was a big run last week behind Princess Jenni. She just got a bit too far back and hit the line really strongly. Her run in the Oaks in the spring in Melbourne was also quite good when covering a heap of extra ground the entire journey. She draws a nice middle gate here and as I said the form of the fillies against the boys right throughout the season in these three year old races gives me a lot of confidence that she can run well here. At double figure odds on the week’s back up I am happy to have something on her here. The other horse at big odds I am going to back is Mangione. Chris Waller brings this horse over from Sydney after being beaten as an odds on favourite last start on the Kensington track. If you go back three starts this horse wasn’t too far behind the Derby winner in Sydney in Angel Of Truth and given that form reference you can relate him to Declarationofheart. He has the blinkers go on here from an inside gate with Dwayne Dunn on board and already has a couple of soft track wins to his credit. Given all that I thought he was probably over the odds around that $30-40 mark in early markets. At those odds I certainly think he is worth a small ticket. The chances obviously don’t end there. ChapadaMr Quickie and Ridgewood Drive are well in the market and all great winning chances but I am just going to play the race a little wider and hope to get a result.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Declarationofheart, $20 the win on Qafila and $10 the win on both Classic Weiwei and Mangione!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:30pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Seven Year Reward (No.7) & Akkadian (No.8)

Dangers

William Thomas (No.5) & Delvecchio (No.13)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Caulfield this Saturday and for once we have a bit of rain about in Melbourne town. We have had a bit during the week and the track is in the soft range. Caulfield drains amazingly well though and some sunshine on Saturday might see it get pretty close to good. I think it will stay in the soft range though and we will be looking for horses that will appreciate that little bit of give. The rail is out ten metres so I wouldn’t be surprised if a fair bit of the track is used with that give in it. I am kicking off the day in the second race which is over the 1100m. I thought this race was fairly open. There certainly looks to be some good speed engaged. I thought that might set it up for Akkadian sitting off the pace coming back in trip to be really strong at the end of the race. This three year old resumed with a strong win at Pakenham first up before going to the 1400m second up and running fairly in a listed race in Adelaide. He is a horse that has been quite dynamic coming off a strong speed over shorter trips and with the blinkers on here with a good speed up front I think he looks really dangerous with Williams on board. Around that $8 mark I think he is worth a ticket here. Like To Think So is a handy horse resuming from a spell here. His form last preparation around the likes of Debt Collector, Haunted and Bravo Tango certainly read well for a race of this nature. He had a recent jump out at Bendigo and he went like a rocket there easily despatching of his rivals by a big margin. He is a horse that typically races well fresh and while 1100m maybe short of his best trip, the way he went in that jump out suggests to me he can sprint really well fresh so keen to be in his corner at the double figure odds. Seven Year Reward comes through the Propelle race which a few others do in this race. He fought on well in that race after being wide on speed. I am hoping that from an inside gate here he might be able to land on speed either leading or outside the leader and from there could prove hard to get past with a bit of race fitness on side so will have something on him at double figure odds. I have no doubt William Thomas and Delvecchio are probably the best two horses in the race but both draw wide and will be well back so I think they are a bit of a risk at their respective prices so happy to play around them with a couple of other runners at odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Akkadian here and save with $15 the win on both Like To Think So and Seven Year Reward!

Race Outlay

$55

Race 3

1:05pm

Suggested

Zoutori (No.1), I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.9) & Shandy (No.10)

Dangers

Orcein (No.4)

This race is over the mile for the three year olds. Zoutori has benefited from a couple of perfect runs in transit at his last two starts and only two starts for this campaign and won impressively. The slight concern with him coming into this race is that fact that he has had a dream run in transit. Last start at Flemington he was just given a gun ride by Williams and duly saluted. He has a few things that punters may see as being against him here. He steps up to the mile he rises to 60kgs and there is obviously that potential for him to not get the perfect run. In saying that I think he is a horse that is just going to continue to improve through the campaign. He draws a middle gate again for Williams and despite the rise in weight and trip I think he is still the horse they all have to beat so I don’t want to lose on the race should he salute. I am certainly not as keen as I was at Flemington though. The stable mate Shandy is deep into her debut campaign but seems to be improving with each and every run. She is a big danger here. She ran well on debut before winning her maiden at her second start. She then beat all bar Big Night Out who she meets again here and was a fraction unlucky behind Tarwin here last start in a race quite a few horses here come through. I think she will appreciate drawing a bit wider on the track in clear galloping room and if she can get into a good spot in running she will be finishing off strongly late. Happy to be with her. The best roughy in the race might be the resuming I’m Dun Dreamin’. This galloper won on debut at massive odds at Cranbourne back in August before doing a fair bit of work in the run at his second start at Sale when running fifth. He was immediately spelled post that run. He had a jump out at Ballarat back in March which he looked to go particularly well in. I haven’t seen a jump out since but I know a few good judges I speak with are quite keen on his chances in this race if he is fit enough. The market will probably tell a tale but if the money does come for him I think it will be a sign he will run a big race. Around that $15-20 mark I am happy to have something on him here.

Betting strategy

Big Night Out's scratching has really taken the fat out of this market! Zoutori is pretty short now! I will have $50 the win on him, $25 the win on Shandy and $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' but the race has lost some punting luster now!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 4

1:40pm

Suggested

Mahamedeis (No.2), Kazio (No.6) & Riyadh (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.5) & He Exscels (No.8)

Gee, this is a tricky race. I struggled to wrap my head around this one. It is over the mile and there is a small field but there are a heap of winning chances. I was pretty disappointed in Mahamedeis last start but I am going to back up on him here. I think the mile might be his best trip. His three runs prior to the last start failure this campaign were all excellent. He finished well back first up but the run was actually better than it looked. He was then very unlucky second up at Bendigo in the Golden Mile before winning well here at his third up run. Like I said, I was quite keen on him last start but he was really plain. I am going to give him another chance back to the mile here as I think if he runs up to those previous runs here he will be hard to roll. Kazio is another that is racing really well this time in and is pretty deep into what has been a long campaign. I just think this race might pan out well for him. He looks one of the few horses in the race that might be capable of taking up the running and owning it from the front. I think that might be the big advantage for him. He was beaten by Widgee Turf at level weights last start which is a pretty good reference for a race like this. While his form here at the track and form over the mile doesn’t read particularly well, I doubt he would have found a race set up as well for him in that time. He has an in form Brett Prebble on board who is very much in the zone at the moment and happy to be with him. The best roughy in the race for mine is clearly Riyadh. This horse has really good third up form and his two runs back from a spell this time in have been really good. He carried big weights at both those runs at Pakenham and here last start. He gets significant weight relief here dropping down to 52kgs after the claim for Michael Poy. His mile record is good and that third up record as I mentioned suggests he might be ready to deliver a peak performance for the campaign here. At double figure odds happy to have something on him. I am obviously worried about Guizot who looks to be flying but gee, that was his race at The Bool and he got the job done, but this is a bit harder so happy to just play around him.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Mahamedeis and Kazio here and $15 the win on Riyadh!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

3:40pm

Suggested

Lady Vega (No.6), Bam’s On Fire (No.10), Delusions (No.11) & The Commoner (No.13)

Dangers

Propelle (No.1) & Notation (No.4)

This is another good race here for the three year old fillies over the 1100m. There look to be a host of winning chances in this race. Propelle has come up the favourite in the race off the back of a dominant win last start but I thought she might be worth taking on here. She shoots up in weight, draws wide and might be spotting a few of these a start. I think there might be a few handy ones amongst her rivals too. Bam’s On Fire is a really interesting runner in my opinion. This filly raced in Perth as a two year old against some of the better horses in that part of the world and was quite competitive. She then made her way to Victoria and into the Ciaron Maher stables but was beaten comfortably at her first run here by the promising Leiter when a $1.50 favourite at Bendigo back in November. She was immediately spelled following that run and resumed at Benalla a couple of weeks ago where she absolutely bolted in her maiden. It was a track gallop and she won by a big margin with plenty in hand and the time was comparable to other races over that same distance on the day. She draws to land on speed here and I think she will be hard to beat. The only issue is she is down to race at Scone and Morphettville as well as here. I am hoping she comes here as I think she will be hard to beat and happy to be with her. Her stable mate Delusions is another horse I think can run well here. She may prove to be the reason that Bam’s On Fire goes interstate as the stable may want to separate them. Delusions is an interesting runner. She won impressively at Swan Hill on debut and then went to Caulfield on Caulfield Cup Day and started favourite in a race there. She ran poorly and was immediately spelled post that run. I loved her recent Cranbourne trial though. I thought she had plenty more to give and looked really strong through the line. She draws a nice barrier here to get a good run just off the speed and at double figure odds I think she is worth a bet here. The Commoner is another interesting runner here. She won well on debut at Cranbourne back in early March when leading all the way and winning by a big margin. Since then she has been back to the jump outs at Flemington recently and gone particularly well. She has no weight on her back, has a low barrier draw to jump on the bunny and she might prove hard to run down. Keen to be in her corner. Lady Vega is the other horse I want to be on in the race. She resumed from a spell with a good win at Ballarat and then was good last week at Flemington I thought. She loomed to win that race but seemed to just peak on her run late. I like her on the quick back up here and she is a pretty talented horse in my opinion so happy to have something on her at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Bam's On Fire, $25 the win on The Commoner, $15 the win on Delusions and $10 the win on Vega Magic here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:20pm

Suggested

Leonardo da Hinchi (No.8)

Dangers

Jungle Edge (No.1) & Blaze Forth (No.5)

This looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. It is interesting mainly because of the appearance of this very smart galloper in Leonardo Da Hinchi who makes his debut for the Mick Price stable after formerly being in the Weir camp. His form around Brutal and The Autumn Sun through that three year old spring campaign certainly reads well for a race of this nature. This just looks a really good race for him. He strikes a field of sprinters that have been to the well a few times and he comes in as the horse very much untapped and on the rise. That was just his first racing campaign in the spring and he performed particularly well. With natural improvement from that campaign into his second one here you can only think he is going to come back a better horse this time in. If he does that, this race looks to be at his mercy. He has a few races in Brisbane that he is being targeted for and if he is to measure up in those bigger races there then he is going to want to be winning this. It isn’t a field of vintage sprinters. Jungle Edge is a bit like a vintage red wine however but I would expect Leonardo Da Hinchi to have his measure with even luck in the race. Adding to the confidence I have in him is the fact that he has jumped out really well down at Terang where he has been stabled with Beetroot Williams. He towelled up a field of gallopers in his most recent jump out down there. A few of those gallopers went to The Bool and performed particularly well too. There is a lot to like. I like the fact he is drawn out and I think if Michael Dee can have him in a nice trailing position with cover peeling out wide with full momentum he should be able to get over the top of them. He only has 54kgs on his back and I think the $3 on offer at the moment probably won’t be there on race day. He looks to be just about the best of the day in the country to me. Keen.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Leonardo Da Hinchi here having half now at the $3 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 1

12:15pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.1)

Dangers

Wild Planet (No.2) & Signore Fox (No.3)

The main race meeting in New South Wales this Saturday comes from Scone for what has become their big two day carnival. It starts with the Cup on Friday (I will tweet out a couple I like on that program) and ends with the big stand alone Saturday program. It is another strong meeting. Scone is an interesting track. Typically by the second day it is no disadvantage to be coming away from the fence and wider draws aren’t really disadvantaged. It is a big long straight and most if not all horses get their chance. It is a good meeting likely to be on a good track looking at the forecast and hopefully there are a few winners for us. I am kicking off in the first race of the day which is strangely enough one of the feature races of the day in the Inglis Guineas for the three year olds. It is only a small field of nine but it looks a competitive race. Military Zone kept his unbeaten second up record in tact last start with a strong win in the Hawkesbury Guineas. I thought there was plenty of merit to the win. He came from off the speed, rounded up the leaders and then had to hold off the talented Trope who had the last shot at him. They put a gap on the rest of the field and I think that gives real merit to the victory. I see no reason why he won’t win again. He comes up against a couple of runners through different form lines who do look dangerous here in Wild Planet and Signore Fox. Wild Planet has been brave in defeat at his two runs this time in off tough runs while Signore Fox won easily at Hawkesbury in a weaker race on the same day Military Zone won. I am just of the opinion that Military Zone is a good horse in the zone on the way up and if this track is favouring horses getting out wider then him being back off the speed from the outside draw won’t be an issue. Happy to be with him to start the day here.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Military Zone here to kick the day off!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Southern Lad (No.5), Wagner (No.6) & Anna’s Joy (No.8)

Dangers

Star Crossed (No.10) & Jack’s Bar (No.18)

This race draws a big field every year. It is a sprint race over the 1100m and it is always one of the more wide open races of the carnival. I did think that this year it perhaps had a pretty long tail and that perhaps the value was with those horses that were well in the market. Wagner is the horse that I certainly think looks hardest to beat. His form this time in has been solid and I think he finds a really winnable race here. He won well first up on the Kensington track before taking on that fast race won by Krone featuring Wild Planet and Classique Legend at Rosehill. He then wasn’t beaten far by Americana Magic one of his rivals in this race at Gosford two starts back before an excellent run at Hawkesbury last start behind Signore Fox. They really went along at a solid tempo in that race and he was up there making that speed. He stuck on well to run second. That race was over the 1300m and I think coming back to the 1100m here on the big Scone track is a big plus for him. His record at this trip is excellent and even though most of those runs have come when he was fresh I think this race sets up well for him. He draws a nice middle gate for Tommy Berry to settle just off the speed and that should see him hard to beat with even luck. Happy to be with him Southern Lad was an interesting run first up at Randwick over the 1000m. I backed him that day off a really nice trial and I thought halfway down the straight he was going to gobble his rivals up. He just seemed to peak on his run 100m from home. He was carrying a big weight there first up chasing a fast tempo for most of the way and he was also a big drifter in the market which suggested he might be in need of the run. I am hoping with that run under the belt he will strip a lot fitter here and hopefully finish the race off with a bit more gusto. He gets good weight relief after the claim for Billy Owen and the extra 100m in trip should be to his liking. He draws wide so he is going to be well back and is another that will be hoping that the track is suiting that type of runner. I think if he has gone on from that first up run he will be right in the thick of things here as he is a talented galloper that I am not sure we have seen the best of just yet. Happy to be with him also. The other runner I will save on in the race is Anna’s Joy. This mare ran super in the Wagga Town Plate last Thursday. She was just in behind the leaders in that race and went back to the inside to try and finish the race off. By that stage of the day horses seemed to be appreciating getting a bit wider on the track and I am not sure she was in the best ground. She stuck to her task well though to be beaten just over a length. Back to the 1100m here I think suits and I don’t see this race being too much tougher if tougher at all than that Wagga Town Plate. I think if she can reproduce a run to that level she will be in the finish and around the $15 mark looks a good bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wagner, $25 the win on Southern Lad and $15 the win on Anna's Joy!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 6

3:25pm

Suggested

Deploy (No.1), Brave Song (No.3) & Resin (No.7)

Dangers

Trekking (No.2) & Redouble (No.6)

This is the Luskin Star Stakes over the 1300m at listed level and this race has drawn together a really competitive field. This race does bat deep. There are quite a few winning chances here. The main form reference looks to be the race won by Trekking on the final day of The Championships at Randwick. Trekking was just that little bit closer in the run than Brave Song and Redouble who closed off strongly but were ultimately unable to run down Trekking. Trekking was second up into that race whereas Brave Song was coming into it second up and I am just banking on there perhaps being a bit more improvement in Brave Song coming into this race. Brave Song did beat Trekking at Caulfield back in the spring when Trekking drew an inside gate and was boxed away and Brave Song got the luck and won well. Brave Song draws out here and Trekking draws in and I am just hoping that Trekking might find a bit of trouble and that Brave Song can storm down the middle of the track and hopefully have full momentum and get that advantage. There isn’t much between them but at nearly double the price I think Brave Song is well worth a bet here. Keen to be with him. I think Resin is a massive chance in the race. This mare has raced really well in her three runs this campaign without the best of luck in my opinion. She was wide and handy to the speed in the first two runs of her campaign and did plenty of work in the run. She was just touched off in both of those after looking the winner. She then went into that race won by White Moss which was run at a crazy speed and she was probably just taken out of her comfort zone in that race. Since that run she has been freshened up and gone back to the trials and looked very impressive at Hawkesbury where she was strangled over the line but still won nicely. I like the fact for her that she is drawn gate one even though the track might not be suiting that draw. I think for her though it gives her a chance to be ridden with a smother and then be produced to have one crack at them and I think she will race more effectively that day. If she gets the breaks in running and can get to the right part of the track then she should prove hard to hold out. Around the $8-9 mark I think she is a really good bet in the race. My old mate Deploy also goes around off the back off a couple of good trials. This is a race well within his grasp and I won’t want to be losing on the race should he salute. He is good double figure odds and well worth saving on in my opinion.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Brave Song here, $25 the win on Resin and $15 the win on Deploy!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

4:05pm

Suggested

Zumbelina (No.7), Aqua D’ivina (No.10), Into The Abyss (No.11) & Asharani (No.14)

Dangers

Savatiano (No.3) & Moss Trip (No.6)

This is another race that looks wide open and looks to have plenty of chances. It is for the fillies and mares at Group Three level over the 1400m. I am playing around the favourites to some extent here. The one horse that is well in the market that I want to be with is Into The Abyss. Gee, she deserves to win a race does this filly. She is knocking on the door. She has clearly come back very well this time in. her first up run was good enough off a good trial before she really improved second up when just touched off by Multaja. She followed that up with a most unlucky second two weeks later at Randwick where she clearly should have won with even luck. The issue here is she again draws gate one and will need a touch of luck. She is a filly that settles off the pace and Glyn is a rider that can sometimes look for luck and go for the magic run rather than play the percentages. If the breaks come her way though I think she has her hoof right on the till. She is not too deep into her campaign whereas some of the other horses like Princess Posh, Savatiano and Siren’s Fury have been up for a little while now so I think there is more to come from Into The Abyss and with even luck she can be winning here. The other three horses I am backing all seem to be decent odds. Zumbelina should be ready now at her third run back from a spell. She has been solid if not spectacular in her two runs back but they have both been really solidly run races that have been owned by horses up on speed. She has struggled to get into those races. I feel this race may set up more favourably for a horse to come off the pace. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but I would expect her to be pretty close to her peak here third up and am expecting an improved run. She has come up around the $21 in the early markets and looks well worth a bet at that price. Aqua D’ivina resumed in the same race Zumbelina ran in last start but was only first up. She just got ran off her feet. I thought she found the line well enough without ever really looking like a winning chance. She is another I would expect to improve significantly here second up. The question mark with her is that she might be just looking for that little bit more ground now she is a bit more seasoned but if the speed is on and there is the chance for something running on to come over the top she does have a touch of quality about her. Around the $15 mark she looks worth a bet also. Asharani is the other horse I am going to have something on. She wasn’t too far off Into The Abyss last start in that race they both contested at Randwick. She got back along the inside and tried to track Into The Abyss through but found some similar traffic problems. I thought she went through the line really strongly. She is about two and a half times the price of Into The Abyss in this market and I don’t think there should be that much discrepancy. At those odds I think she is worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

The $7 with TopBetta about Into The Abyss is good value for mine and will lock that in and have $30 the win on her! I will also have $15 the win on Aqua D'ivina and Asharani and $10 the win on Zumbelina!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 8

4:45pm

Suggested

Viridine (No.2) & Victorem (No.3)

Dangers

Dothraki (No.1) & Guard Of Honour (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on here. It is over the 1100m for the sprinters. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I tweeted about this race on Thursday morning and was pretty bullish that either Viridine or Victorem should be winning this race. They just look to have a fair bit on their opposition here. Viridine hasn’t won for a while but this is probably the weakest race he has contested for some time. He has been competing against some top class sprinters in good company and probably just hasn’t measured up. He hasn’t had the best of luck in a few of those races either. Even last start when he looked to get into a winnable race which was won by Trekking he just didn’t quite get clear running when he needed it to be able to build any momentum. I thought he probably went through the line with something more to give. I think he should avoid any traffic issues. The big Scone track should suit him perfectly and from a middle gate for Jason Collett he looks really well placed. This is probably d-day for him but you aren’t taking a ridiculously short price about him. He is $4+ in the market and if he runs to his best with even luck that price may look a real spoil. Happy to be with him. I probably do lean just slightly to Victorem. This is a race featuring a few horses that have been around the block a few times. Even the horse I just spoke about Virdiine has had a few chances and probably isn’t on the up anymore. This horse Victorem may very well still be on an upward spiral. He started to put it together last campaign particularly over the summer months in Brisbane when he ran some strong races. A couple of those were without luck but his win the listed Lough Neagh was dominant and the win of a good horse. He has had a good break since his last run at the end of December and has had two trials to get him ready for this first up assignment. He hasn’t trialled against much in those trials at Port Macquarie and Taree but he has looked very impressive in both of them. The pleasing thing is that he has jumped really well in both of those. If he can become a horse that can really take up a position on speed and sprint off it he is going to be very dangerous. This is a good test for him first up. He looks ready to go off the two trials and if he is going to take the step up this campaign to the next level then he probably wants to beat these in my opinion. Providing Ben Looker can get him into a good position from the middle to wide gate, hopefully tracking up with some cover in clear galloping room then he is going to be very hard to hold out. Keen to be with him and with the two of them at $4+ I think it is a super two bet play.

Betting strategy

The $4.60 about Victorem looks an absolute spoil with BetEasy and can see him starting much shorter than that! I will have $50 the win on him at that price and $40 the win on Viridine!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 1

11:25am

Suggested

Femme Fireball (No.2), Of The Day (No.3) & Mishani Electra (No.7)

Dangers

River Racer (No.1) & Awake The Stars (No.4)

Group One racing in Brisbane comes from Doomben this Saturday for the big Doomben 10,000 meeting as the winter carnival really starts to heat up. The weather as it generally does at this time of year in Brisbane is turning it on too. As a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday for what looks a really good day of racing. I am going to kick the day off in the first race for the fillies and mares which looks a pretty wide open affair. The main chances certainly look to be up towards the top of the market but given how open the race is there is plenty of value in those horses in my opnion. Certainly the horse for mine that looked to go up early overs in that market was Mishani Electra. This mare was formerly with Ben Currie and now finds herself in the Les Ross stables at Eagle Farm. Her form last campaign was really strong and she comes into this race first up. Ironically for a 1200m race this is a race that looked to lack a bit for early speed and a natural leader. She certainly fits that bill and for that reason I think she is well set up. She gets first look at a Doomben track rated as good with the rail in the true position from gate one and she should jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. Happy to be with her. I am keeping a couple of other resuming mares on side. Of The Day finds a pretty winnable Class 6 race here. This is a mare that raced in listed company last campaign predominantly and was probably at the end of her campaign when she dropped back to this grade at her final run of the campaign. She wasn’t beaten far in that against the males. She resumes here against her own sex from a good draw with James McDonald engaged. That for me is all positive and indicates she might be ready to rumble first up. If James can hold a position on her close enough to the speed from that good draw and make use of it then she should be hard to hold out. Happy to be with her. I can’t leave Femme Fireball out of the equation. She is a very talented mare on her day and potentially the best horse in the race. This won’t be an easy assignment though first up around Doomben. She draws out and will most likely be spotting her rivals a pretty handy start. It is just whether she can get herself within striking distance or not. If she is within touch coming to the home turn and can have the leaders in her sight she could be hard to hold out. She has a big finish on her on her day. The thing that does have me confident about her running well is that she was very good in the early stages of her last campaign. If she returns this time around in the same vein, then I think this is a winnable race for her. I probably lean to the other two just ahead of her but don’t want to be losing should she salute.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Mishani Electra locking in the $7 about her! I will also have $20 the win on Of The Day and Femme Fireball!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Multaja (No.12)

Dangers

Racecourse Road (No.3) & Vega One (No.4)

This race is for the three year olds over the 1350m. We typically find that the Sydney carnival holds up in Brisbane at this time of year and for that reason I am pretty keen to back Multaja here in this race despite the short odds. She certainly doesn’t look to strike any world beaters in this race. Her form this time in has been excellent. She just got a bit too far back first up at Moonee Valley when she was well backed before returning to Sydney and stringing together two excellent wins. She won easily at Hawkesbury as favourite before winning the last race on Derby Day at Randwick. She then just got a bit too far back at Hawkesbury in a race that was dominated on speed and eventually won by Irithea. This just looks an ideal assignment for her. She draws gate five for Kerrin McEvoy to land just off the speed in a stalking position and from there she should be really hard to hold out. She is in the red, but around the $1.80-90 mark which to me looks a real spoil. The only doubt if any that I have is perhaps her ability to run a strong 1350m. Given how well she hit the line at Hawkesbury over the 1300m though I am confident she can handle that so happy to be with her here and think anything around that $1.80 mark or more is a good enough price.

Betting strategy

I will have $105 the win on Multaja here having half now at the $1.95 and the other half at Top Fluc tomorrow!

Race Outlay

$105

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Dealmaker (No.1) & The Golden Hand (No.9)

Dangers

Trusty Lad (No.2) & Purple Sector (No.4)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and again I am going to side with that Sydney carnival form to come to the fore. Until I see evidence otherwise at this Brisbane carnival I am pretty content in trusting that form to shine through. Dealmaker and Purple Sector are the two gallopers that bring that Sydney form here having come through the Carbine Club and Packer Plate at their last two starts. Dealmaker has had the better of Purple Sector in both of those races and I would expect him to do so again here. He does need to get another win on the board though. He is becoming a bit of a costly one for punters. He now only has the one win from thirteen starts but until his last couple of runs he had been racing in some of the top company. He had raced in the Australian and Rosehill Guineas and you only have to look at his Australian Guineas run where he was only just over two lengths off Mystic Journey to see that he is a horse of quality. I think this race easily represents the best chance for him to win a race this campaign. He draws gate two for James McDonald so he should get a lovely run in transit and from there he just needs the breaks to come his way and he should be right in the finish. Happy to be with him. I am going to save on The Golden Hind who is a horse going through the grades here in Queensland and might just have that little bit of x-factor about him. He is certainly the horse on the way up. He got the job done two starts back over the 1400m at the Sunshine Coast to break his maiden before getting up to the mile last Sunday and beating his rivals into submission with a near ten length victory. I just think he might be the horse that can take it to the next level here and as a result will save on him at the double figure odds just in case. I think unless Dealmaker has come to the end of his campaign or strikes some bad luck from the inside draw though he should be winning.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Dealmaker here and save with $15 the win on The Golden Hind!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8 - Doomben 10,000

3:50pm

Suggested

Osborne Bulls (No.1) & The Bostonian (No.8)

Dangers

Nature Strip (No.2) & Champagne Cuddles (No.11)

This is the big race of the day punters. It is the Group One Doomben 10,000 over the 1200m at Doomben. It promises to be a fascinating race. There looks to be a lot of speed that is for sure. Any race that features Nature Strip certainly has a lot of speed in it. He looks like he will have some company here. Nothing will match him for early speed but the likes of I’m A Rippa, Dollar For Dollar and White Moss will all push forward and keep him rolling. I don’t mind Nature Strip drawing out. I think that is a big advantage for him. He can sometimes be a fraction slow initially out of the gates before he builds the revs and really gets into his work. For that reason an outside draw is preferable to an inside draw. The question is can he run out a strong 1200m? I have no doubt Doomben is a good track for him but there has to be a bit of a question mark on him at the end of the 1200m. For that reason I am giving Osborne Bulls one last chance. He certainly isn’t running badly, he just keeps finding one better. This is certainly in terms of the races he has contested this campaign, the weakest. He draws in gate four so I am hoping Kerrin McEvoy can hold him just that little bit closer to the speed. I think if he can be within striking distance coming into the straight and the breaks come his way that he will be capable of getting over the top of them. At the better price than Nature Strip I think he is worth a bet as I really can’t split them and if anything probably had Osborne Bulls rated a little bit shorter. Keen to be with him, for one last time maybe. I think I said that last time. Let’s hope this is his day. The horse I am saving on in the race is The Bostonian. This New Zealand galloper raced really well here in Queensland last winter and returns for the first time since then. He raced well through his recent New Zealand campaign without ever really hitting any great heights. The key here is that he comes into the race first up. He is unbeaten in four first up runs, his 1200m record is strong and he was dominant in his only run here at Doomben. This is undoubtedly his toughest test but he draws well to get a suck run on the speed and I think at $51 you can have worse bets than that.

Betting strategy

There is good support for Osborne Bulls and I will lock in the $3.40 with QLD TAB Fixed odds and have $65 the win on him! I will save with $5 the win on The Bostonian at the $61 with the same outlet and also have $10 the place on him at best tote!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:16pm

Suggested

Arkham Knight (No.1) & Debt Collector (No.4)

Dangers

Vinland (No.3) & Tan Tat Trusting (No.5)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday with the running of the South Australian Derby at Morphettville. The rains have arrived in Adelaide and as a result we will be racing on a soft track on Saturday. This week’s meeting certainly doesn’t look as strong as what last week’s was and as a result I have just found a couple of races to bet into. I am kicking off in the second race of the day which is over the 1400m. I am pretty keen on Debt Collector here. I have been following this galloper for a little while now and been on him at both runs this campaign. He has performed well in both those runs but just had little luck. He has been caught wide and back and probably don’t a bit too much work in the run covering ground which has dulled his typically dynamic fashion. I think he can bounce back here though. He finally draws an inside gate and while he will need luck from that gate for Dwayne Dunn, I think it will suit his racing style. He can be smothered up in behind them and produced for that one big finish where he is most effective. He comes into the race third up as I mentioned and given that he should prove hard to hold out. Keen to be in his corner. The horse I am saving on is Arkham Knight. He is another that has been really good in both runs this time in. He ran third in a listed race last start and comes back to a Benchmark 86 here on Saturday. While he goes up in weight I think he looks well placed. Like Debt Collector he comes into the race third up from a spell and will certainly appreciate the soft conditions. He won a pretty wet track at The Bool last May and his overall soft track form record reads well. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and around the $9-10 mark I think he is an excellent bet here.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Debt Collector and save with $20 the win on Arkham Knight here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7 - South Australian Derby

4:36pm

Suggested

Declarationofheart (No.3), Classic Weiwei (No.6), Mangione (No.10) & Qafila (No.16)

Dangers

Chapada (No.1), Mr Quickie (No.2) & Ridgewood Drive (No.8)

This is a wide open South Australian Derby as you can tell from the number of horses that I have mentioned above. It isn’t a race I want to really tumble into too many of the favourites in and as such was happy to play it a little bit wider with a few at odds. I am hoping the form from The Chairman’s here two weeks ago holds up. I thought Declarationofheart’s win in that race was super. He looked in a bit of trouble coming to the home turn when he was stuck back in traffic inside horses with a wall of horses in front of him but he found a way through and was really strong through the line. That win followed a solid run in the Derby in Sydney. I think that will hold him in good stead for a race of this nature. He draws ideally for Clayton Douglas to get a gun run in behind the speed and while there is the soft track question mark, if he handles it I think he will be hard to beat so happy to be with him. The emerging horse in the race might be Classic Weiwei who made up a ton of ground from the back of the field in that same race behind Declarationofheart. He is the lightly raced horse going through the grades on the way up. He got a long way back last start and hit the line strongly as he did in his previous start win. He is another that is unproven on a wet track but if he handles it he looks certain to run the trip right out. He draws wide so he will be back in the run but I would expect him to be really hitting the line and around the $20 mark he looks a good bet to me. The three year old fillies have been very strong this year and for that reason I want to keep Qafila on side who was a big run last week behind Princess Jenni. She just got a bit too far back and hit the line really strongly. Her run in the Oaks in the spring in Melbourne was also quite good when covering a heap of extra ground the entire journey. She draws a nice middle gate here and as I said the form of the fillies against the boys right throughout the season in these three year old races gives me a lot of confidence that she can run well here. At double figure odds on the week’s back up I am happy to have something on her here. The other horse at big odds I am going to back is Mangione. Chris Waller brings this horse over from Sydney after being beaten as an odds on favourite last start on the Kensington track. If you go back three starts this horse wasn’t too far behind the Derby winner in Sydney in Angel Of Truth and given that form reference you can relate him to Declarationofheart. He has the blinkers go on here from an inside gate with Dwayne Dunn on board and already has a couple of soft track wins to his credit. Given all that I thought he was probably over the odds around that $30-40 mark in early markets. At those odds I certainly think he is worth a small ticket. The chances obviously don’t end there. ChapadaMr Quickie and Ridgewood Drive are well in the market and all great winning chances but I am just going to play the race a little wider and hope to get a result.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Declarationofheart, $20 the win on Qafila and $10 the win on both Classic Weiwei and Mangione!

Race Outlay

$70

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