Select a Race Meeting

Race 3

12:45pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Satori (No.7), Moor Wanted (No.10), Deep Euphoria (No.14) & Yousay Bolt (No.20)

Dangers

Fill The Flute (No.8) & Eurack (No.9)

Racing in Melbourne is again at Flemington this Saturday for another really deep and strong meeting for this time of year. The rain is forecast to arrive on Friday night and then persist into Saturday so I anticipate should that forecast come to fruition we may be racing on a soft surface. Remember Melbourne Cup Day though, in all seriousness that was monsoonal rain and by the Cup we still weren’t on a heavy track so I don’t anticipate it having too much effect as we aren’t expected to get that sort of rain. I would think we are a chance of sneaking into the soft range though. Tough program, I won’t lie. Big fields are the order of the day and there is some real competitive racing on offer. I am kicking off in the third race of the day which is down the straight over the 1100m. This race has a host of chances and there have already been a couple of runners well supported. I was steering clear of those runners and was basically trying to find a result with a couple of runners at big odds. I fancy this might be a testing 1100m down the straight and the two well fancied runners in Fill The Flute and Eurack are both first up here and known for their short course sprinting. I just think they may be a touch vulnerable late and that a horse like Satori with a solid 1100m run under his belt at The Bool this time in might be ready to rumble and prove a touch too strong late. Ironically I took him on first up at The Bool where he was a well supported favourite and while he was only just touched off into third place beaten a nose by a nose, he never really looked like winning the race for mine. I think he will be suited by this race down the straight as I fancy he might be looking for a bit further but this race may give the “feel” of a 1200m race. He also has the blinkers being applied to just sharpen him up that little bit which could be crucial. He handles all conditions and happy to be with him. Then I start to get into the roughies. The one I really like at odds that I was keen to have something on was Yousay Bolt. This is a lightly raced mare trained out of Albury who has shown good ability in her short career to date. She fell victim to the dreaded Dinopolous/Baron curse when she was backed off the map in a Rosehill highway back in November. She had run some really nice figures at her previous start win at Benalla but found Our Rosemaree too strong in the highway. She then had a two month break before winning at a very short quote at Corowa. She hasn’t been to the races since and seemingly likes her races well spaced. She has had a nice trial at Albury to keep her up to the mark for this, winkers go on from a middle draw and I thought she could run a cheeky race around the $30 mark. Like To Think So resumes here after he was down to resume at Caulfield two weeks back. He won a Bendigo jump out in nice fashion recently and his form last campaign around the likes of Haunted, Bravo Tango and Debt Collector certainly read well for a race of this nature. He has a good fresh record and while his best form is over 1200m or further I have already mentioned this race may suit that type of horse. I fancy he is ready to run a big race first up and looks backable around the $20-30 mark. Deep Euphoria was a painful result first up at Sandown when she just failed to run down one of her rivals here in Celtic Blast. I was on at big odds but she just couldn’t quite bridge the margin. That run was a marked improvement on what we saw from her last campaign and I think she appreciated getting on to a soft track again. She will hopefully get those conditions again here and up to the 1100m second up should suit so happy to have something on her again here. Moor Wanted is the other horse I will have something on. He landed good bets to win on the first day at The Bool over the carnival and he was a winner at his only start down the straight. He is another who will appreciate soft conditions and appears to be going well this time in, so the $20-30 about him is also appealing.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Satori here! I will also have $15 the win on Yousay Bolt and $10 the win on all three of Like To Think So, Moor Wanted and Deep Euphoria!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:25pm

Suggested

Odeon (No.1) & Strategic Demand (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.3) & Another Dollar (No.8)

This is a smaller field here over the mile but it is still a very competitive race. There are quite a few winning chances within the small field. Odeon hasn’t made winning a regular habit in recent times but he looks to get the right setup to break through here. All four of his runs this time in have been good, he just hasn’t won. He was excellent here first up behind Widgee Turf over the 1400m before running well in that hot form race – The Golden Mile at Bendigo. He then looked to have the race won at Caulfield third up but probably found the jump from the mile to 2000m a bridge too far that day on the quick back up. He then ran well in the Easter Cup two weeks later over the 2000m but just faded late. I walked away from those two races thinking that he might not be running out the 2000m as strongly these days. That’s why I think the setup of this race looks good for him. He is freshened up with about five weeks between runs into this race having had a recent trial win. He had the blinkers applied in that trial and they stay on here race day. He also finds a race that looks devoid of early speed so I fancy Craig Williams might be able to take advantage of that and roll forward up on speed. If he can do that then he should prove hard to run down. Given quite a few of his rivals are off speed gallopers he might have that positional advantage in running so happy to be with him. I ended up deciding to save on Strategic Demand who might be low level flying. I probably didn’t think I would be tipping the Great Western Cup winner in a Saturday meeting at Flemington but here we are. His first up run here behind Fastnet Tempest was really good. He was going through the line better than Another Dollar who he meets again here and while Another Dollar might potentially have a bit more scope she is half the price of Strategic Demand and for that reason I am happy to side with Strategic Demand. He has also had a trial since that first up run where he went particularly well against a couple of rivals from this race. He has no weight on his back, will do no work from the inside draw and he should run well, so happy to be with him around the $8 mark.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Odeon and save with $25 the win on Strategic Demand!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 5

2:05pm

Suggested

Fabric (No.10) & Shamal Lass (No.17)

Dangers

Vanuatu (No.6) & Neighbourhood (No.13)

Straight back to the big fields here in this race over the 1400m for the three year old fillies. This is another very competitive race. Shamal Lass comes through some strong maidens and comes to town here. I think this is a good filly. She hit the line well on debut at Ararat before she was well backed in a maiden at The Bool over the carnival. She unfortunately ran into a horse called Harbour Views there who proved too strong. We have seen that horse come out and bolt in since and he looks well above average. Shamal Lass went to Donald at her next start and we had the luxury of getting black figures about her. She looked a legitimate $1.50 shot and won accordingly with a fair bit in hand. She strikes me as a really progressive filly that might continue to go through her grades this campaign. She draws out here for Ollie so she will most likely get back off the speed and I given how strong she has been through the line at her last two starts she should be really good late here. There looks like there will be a genuine speed up front and from there she should finish off really well. I am happy to be with her here. Fabric and Neighbourhood come through the same race behind Fidelia last start but it was a real battle over who to go with. Neighbourhood appeared to have every chance there and was cut down late while Fabric had no luck at all back in behind horses. I think Fabric going to a wider draw here and Neighbourhood going to a lower draw probably shifts the balance of power in favour of Fabric. She looks to have come back well. Her first up win was excellent before running well when third behind Fidelia at Sandown. Craig Williams goes back on here from the middle draw and I think if she can build momentum and blend into the race which she hasn’t been able to at her last two runs from inside draws she should be well suited. Happy to side with her here on the home track.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Shamal Lass and Fabric here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:25pm

Suggested

Haunted (No.5) & Holbien (No.8)

Dangers

Manolo Blahniq (No.2) & Order Of Command (No.4)

This looks a good sprint race here down the straight. It is over the 1200m and it is another competitive field. I was probably a bit annoyed at myself with my Haunted bet in Adelaide at his most recent start. He was 1200m back to 1100m which didn’t really look the ideal setup but I thought his class would carry him through. He drew an inside gate though and just wasn’t able to build momentum. He ran into the subsequent Goodwood winner in Despatch there and wasn’t beaten far but never really looked like winning the race. His win first up was quite dominant though and I really thought this might be a campaign that he would go through his grades in. He looks to get a really good opportunity to bounce back here. He steps back up to the 1200m down the straight where he has performed well in the past and I like the fact that he draws out and can blend into the race for Craig Williams. I think he is the most progressive horse in the race and this looks winnable for him. I think the $3+ being bet about him is attractive and happy to be with him. I thought the runner at a bit of odds in the race that might run well is Holbien. If you go back through his recent form you can see he has run well here down the straight in a Standish behind Whispering Brook and he has also not been far away in the Group One C.F. Orr. His most recent run he wasn’t beaten far by Fifty Stars in what was a strong form race. He jumped out well recently and his 1200m form is actually really good. He seems to race well early in his campaigns and at double figure odds I think he looks a real dangerous runner here. Happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Haunted here having half now at the $3.30 with SportsBet and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will also have $20 the win on Holbien having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:05pm

Suggested

Runaway (No.11) & Surprise Baby (No.12)

Dangers

Steel Prince (No.2) & Alfarris (No.3)

This is the feature race of the day here over the 2800m. It is the Andrew Ramsden for the stayers and the winner will earn themselves a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup. While it has drawn a big field I don’t think it is a race that bats overly deep. I am hoping it plays out pretty straight forward. If it does then I think Surprise Baby will be very hard to beat. The Adelaide Cup winner looks a young stayer very much on the rise. He was an outstanding winner of that two mile race in May before turning in a sensational performance here last start at his first run back since that victory. He carried a big weight there and probably should have won. He was back on the inside in traffic and was unable to build any real momentum into the race. He was involved in a scrimmage on the home turn which resulted in a fall but he was able to overcome that and still hit the line strongly. Once he got to the outside and build momentum he really charged through the line. It was an exceptional run. Given how strong he was in winning the Adelaide Cup over the two miles, the 2800m here looks ideal for him. He draws out but that doesn’t particularly bother me over this longer trip. I imagine Dean Holland will try and ride him quietly from that gate and give him time to build into the race. Providing he gets even luck in running I think he is the best horse going forward and he should be just about winning. The stable is flying too which doesn’t hurt. Keen to be with him. Steel Prince is obviously his main danger and has won all four starts this campaign and has built up a pretty imposing career record. He has the services of Ollie and will get every possible chance. Given both a pretty tight in the market though it is impossible to back both so I have sided with Surprise Baby. The horse I want to save on at odds is Runaway. Gai Waterhouse has a pretty good record with horses over this trip at Flemington. She has made winning the St. Leger here at Flemington a regular habit and won it with this horse last year. It has been a bit of an odd preparation for Runaway in the fact he doesn’t come into this race with the miles in the legs, but Gai will no doubt have him primed. He won the Geelong Cup last spring and this race I dare say wouldn’t be as strong as that. His two runs this time in probably haven’t told us too much but I would expect him to improve pretty significantly up to this trip third up here. He has had a trial over the hurdles to sharpen him up for this and will roll forward and give a sight on speed. I thought at the $20 on offer he was the horse potentially over the odds in the race.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Surprise Baby here and $10 the win on Runaway!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 2

12:00pm

Suggested

Irish Songs (No.4), Bombdiggity (No.6) & Vernazza (No.9)

Dangers

Lifesaver (No.3) & Major Danger (No.5)

Racing in Sydney returns to Randwick this Saturday for what is a bit of an oddity in Sydney on a Saturday. It is a meeting with a massive number of runners and big fields. We have often mocked Sydney for their small fields but this meeting is really deep. Like Flemington, it is a deep meeting with plenty of chances. The rail is true and the track is good so the track should race perfectly. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is the Highway over the 1000m. They are going to go quickly here. Matty Dunn again brings two horses down for the Highway. He had two in last week, scratched one and the other went ordinary but it would appear at this stage that both Lifesaver and Vernazza will be making the journey down. I had a slight leaning to the latter who has the run under the belt and might be a little bit more untapped. I have been a fan of Vernazza from day one. I backed her on debut at Doomben back in June last year where she ran into the talented Malahide and was well beaten. She then went to Grafton and got the job done in a handy two year old race over their carnival. She then had a good break before her next run in December at Doomben where she finished down the track behind Outback Barbie. She was immediately spelled post that run and resumed at Murwillumbah two weeks ago. She was heavily backed there into an odds on favourite and despite working outside the leader, was able to get to the wider part in the track late in the day which was the place to be and won comfortably. I think she can go on from that here. She is lightly raced and seemingly with some scope which is the type of horse I like to back in these Highway races. She should land right on speed from gate four and be hard to beat so happy to be with her. Bombdiggity is another lightly raced three year old who makes the journey up from Goulburn here and he looks to have good ability. He won well on debut at Canberra back in October before running third at his second start on his home track and was immediately spelled post that run. He resumed at the Sapphire Coast in March with an easy win under a big weight as a short priced favourite and comes into this race off a two month break following that. He was given a nice quiet time in a recent Goulburn trial where I thought he went well. He gets in with no weight on his back here and around the $8 happy to be with him. The other runner I couldn’t really put my finger on was Irish Songs. He is another three year old that has taken on some handy horses in his career to date. The 1000m may be a bit a sharp for him but this looks a race loaded with early speed. He is drawn gate one and if he can be close enough to them in the run and the leaders overdo it he might be the one closing off strongest late. If the breaks come his way from the inside gate I think he is certainly good enough to win fresh. He was given a very quiet time in his recent trial and it was probably better than the finishing position suggests so happy to keep him on side.

Betting strategy

Deep highway to kick things off on! I will have $40 the win on Vernazza and $20 the win on Bombdiggity and Irish Songs!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Wolfe (No.4)

Dangers

Occupy (No.6) & Master Of Wine (No.11)

This race is over the 2000m and while it is a fair sized field, it looks a pretty skinny race. I think there are only a couple of winning chances and one in particular in Wolfe who looks extremely hard to beat. This looks a very exciting galloper. He has won three of four career starts and looks to have a very bright future in front of him. He is a Japanese bred galloper who won on debut at Kembla back in October when a massive drifter in the betting. The win was full of authority though and he went straight from that to Hawkesbury and an open Benchmark 64 and won impressively again. He then went out for a spell and resumed over the 1400m on ANZAC Day at Randwick where he was just touched off by Something Fast. He was kept up to the mark with a trial four days after that which was an odd training move but it seemed to do the trick as he went to the 1900m second up and was most impressive in winning at Canterbury. He ended up in the box seat (coffin) in that race and a few of his rivals in betting tried to make moves around him to keep him in a pocket. Those runs were short lived though and I loved the way Wolfe come off their back and picked up quickly to win running away. He just looks a really progressive horse that is going to go through his grades pretty quickly. He draws gate five here for Tim Clark and with that 1900m run under his belt last start he looks so well setup here at the 2000m third up. I think with even luck he will just be winning and the black figures might be a bit of a luxury come race day. Master Of Wine is the clear danger and I toyed with the idea of saving on him but really when a horse is as tight in the market is Wolfe is and I am that keen you probably have to bite the bullet and have a crack at him as a stand out bet. On a tough day he looks the best for me.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Wolfe here and will lock in the $2.05 as I fancy he may start in the red on race day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Quackerjack (No.1) & Nicco Lad (No.10)

Dangers

Kolding (No.5) & Asharani (No.8)

This race is over the 1500m for the three and four year olds and is another intriguing race. There are some handy horses going around in this race. The one I am taking on and most scared of is the favourite Kolding who has returned from a two month freshen up recently in super form. He has won both starts impressively and really chased through the line well in both wins. The concerning thing for me in this race is that he does draw gate one and I just feel he might end up in an awkward spot in the run and needing some luck. This is also a harder race and a horse like Quackerjack comes out of a strong Hawkesbury Guineas last start and will also be up on speed and rolling in clear air in front of Kolding in the run. For that reason I am happy to be with Quackerjack who appears to have come back well this time in. He resumed with a dominant win on the Kensington track before running well last start when second up in that Hawkesbury Guineas. He was clearly the best of the on pacers in that race. Third up to the 1500m here I think he looks really well placed. He has Josh Parr on board who is a renowned positive rider. He will send Quackerjack forward and he will be up on the speed rolling all of the way. I just think with that positional advantage in running he might be able to pick a bit of a break on some of his main rivals in the betting and get them off the bit and chasing. If that is the case he will be hard to run down, so keen to be in his corner. I am going to save on Nicco Lad who is a horse that will be back off them and hoping to run on. He has had three runs this time in and ran well at all of them without probably having the best of luck. He has drawn low gates in the majority of those and I just feel he might be a horse that is better suited with a bit more galloping room. I feel he hasn’t been able to really build full momentum when he has needed to in those runs. From the wider draw here he will be back off the speed but hopefully peeling into clear air and building at the right time. He should certainly be primed here at his fourth run back from a spell and I think he will also appreciate getting on to this big Randwick track. I just think this isn’t a bad setup for him and around the $8-9 mark he looked worthy of a bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Quackerjack here having half now at the $4.80 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $20 the win on Nicco Lad!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:10pm

Suggested

Noire (No.1), Renewal (No.11) & Organza (No.13)

Dangers

Special Missile (No.4) & Mahalangur (No.10)

This race looks fairly wide open with quite a few winning chances. I just think that Renewal is a horse that has always promised a fair bit and he might be on the cusp of starting to deliver on that promise. All his runs this time in have been strong. He resumed with a good win here before going to down to Melbourne and taking on some handy races where he ran well three times without winning. I was pretty confident about his chances last start when returning back to Sydney and he didn’t let me down. He sat handy to the speed and proved far too strong for Star Of The Seas who we saw come out and win impressively last Saturday. That form all looks pretty strong. He is fit and in form, stays down in the weights here and if Jean Van Overmeire can get him into a good spot from a potentially awkward wider draw then I anticipate him being hard to hold out again. Keen to be with him. I am keeping Organza on side here who resumed with an excellent Scone two weeks ago. She landed just off the speed there and looked the winner down the straight but was just touched off in a blanket finish. She is a very consistent mare that is building a strong overall record. The positive here is that she typically improves sharply off her first up run into her second up run as a rule and given she went so well first up if she was to replicate that pattern here then she is going to be very hard to hold out. Her 1400m record is excellent and while she also draws a touch wide and awkwardly, if Rachel King can get her into a good trailing position in the run I would expect her to be right in the finish so happy to be with her. The horse that I am going to keep on side in the race is Noire. This is a mare I have a fair bit of time for. She ran some cracking races through the spring against some of our best horses but didn’t seem to really go on with that this campaign. Her runs this autumn campaign have just been fair and lacking that bit of spark. She has been given a good freshen up since her most recent run about eight weeks back and I thought her recent trial may have been an indication that she is back on track. She was given a very soft time behind Desert Lord but looked to go through the line quite strongly. She draws gate one which may not be ideal here, but this is the easiest race she has contested for some time. If the breaks come her way and she can run anywhere near her best then she will give this a shake. She has come up double figure odds too which looks pretty big in a race of this nature so for mine at that price she is certainly well worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I am going to have $50 the win on Renewal here and save with $20 the win on Organza and Noire!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

3:50pm

Suggested

Deprive (No.15)

Dangers

Cradle Mountain (No.4) & Heart Conquered (No.12)

This race is over the 1100m for the sprinters and looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. The return of two very promising sprinters in Cradle Mountain and Deprive certainly bring a fair bit of spice to this race. Both have trialled well and both should come here pretty wound up. It looks to be a race with a fair bit of pressure early and for that reason I do lean to Deprive. I was happy to bet around him last Saturday before he was a late scratching at the barriers. I think that would have been the right decision had he run as I don’t think he would have beat Desert Lord. I think this race sets up nicely for him. I like him on the bigger Randwick track drawn out. I had a few concerns last Saturday where he was going to get to in the run around Rosehill from a low draw. I think on the big Randwick track here he can land back off the speed midfield, off the fence with a bit of cover and that should have him peeling into the clear at the right time ready to make his run. His form last time in was very good in strong form races and he has always been a horse that has had a bit of a boom on him. This isn’t an easy race but I think he might get the race run to suit up front so he can get over the top of them. To my eye he trialled like a horse that would be looking for 1200-1400m this time in so he will need to be pretty fresh here over the 1100m. With the strong speed up front though I can see him getting over the top of them late and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Deprive here!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 3

12:20pm

Suggested

Grinzinger Star (No.1) & Lord Arthur (No.8)

Dangers

Vow And Declare (No.4) & Bobby Dee (No.9)

Group One racing again comes from Brisbane this Saturday with the running of the Kingsford Smith Cup over the 1300m which is a relatively new race on the calendar. I think this might be the equivalent of the old Doomben 10,000 without diving too deeply into it. The weather in Queensland is OK, it isn’t great but it doesn’t look as if it will be too wet and I think we will get away with racing on a good track. There is a bit more intrigue in this meeting with a few horses coming off Doomben runs where they perhaps weren’t overly well suited and are now getting on to the big Eagle Farm track where we might see a few horses improve sharply. I am kicking off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 2200m. This is one of the lead ups to the Derby and we have a heap of different form lines coming together. There are horses coming from New Zealand, Sydney and Melbourne arriving to take on the locals. The New Zealand form interests me and Lord Arthur in particular looks a horse with some genuine staying talent. His win last start at Ellerslie was quite simply put, barnstorming. He sat back off the speed and rounded his rivals up from the back with a sharp turn of foot. He was a bit all over the place in the straight but the manner of the win was really impressive. I haven’t seen too many average horses win the way he did. I love the way when asked for an effort he really turned on the jets to run past his rivals. The start prior to that he was competitive with The Chosen One who we saw win really impressively at Randwick over the carnival in Sydney so I would be very surprised if he didn’t measure up here. The big Eagle Farm track looks like it will suit him ideally and the engagement of James McDonald from gate four can only be a positive one would think. He looks a good ‘orse in my eyes and keen to be with him here as I don’t think he meets any world beaters. I am going to save on Grinzinger Star who makes the journey north for the Danny O’Brien yard. I have to admit I did have a bit of a dilemma over which Danny O’Brien horse to back with him and Vow And Declare engaged. I just thought that Grinzinger Star with a few more runs under his belt would be a bit more seasoned to run out the 2200m than the stable mate who is only third up from a spell and rising in trip. Grinzinger Star’s form this time in has been excellent. He ran well first up at Caulfield when just touched off against the older horses before he rolled Mr Quickie second up which is very good form. He then stepped up to the 2000m at Caulfield back against the older horses and won easily before not having the best of luck at Flemington last start when involved in a scrimmage on the home corner which seemed to affect the way he finished off the race. I am happy to forgive that and will back him in to rebound here. I fancy Corey Brown might ride him a bit quieter from that wider draw and let him come with a good long run at them. He ran well in the Derby in Victoria last year so the trip is no issue and I would expect him to be hard to beat here so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Formality here and save with $10 the win on Seannie just in case!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 4

12:55pm

Suggested

Quilista (No.4)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.6) & Savatiano (No.8)

This race is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares and it looks another really good opportunity for Quilista to get another win on the board. Gee, that race last Saturday at Doomben looked well set up for her and she delivered accordingly. She jumped on the bunny controlled the tempo and sprinter away from her rivals to win easily. Her two runs prior to that were also good and her three runs in total now for the Snowden yard have been excellent. She looks a mare in the zone and I think they are worth sticking with. This is going to be tougher than last week in my opinion. She goes to 1300m and she also has to negotiate Eagle Farm which isn’t a big deal but we know Doomben can be heaven for those on speed when they can control the race like she did last week. The good thing about this race on Saturday is that she again looks to get complete control of the race early. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed and I would expect McEvoy to jump her on the bunny, get control and again be very hard to run down. The camp mentioned during the week that Quilista is relaxing a lot better in her races and that is allowing her to finish off her races with a lot more gusto and reel off quick final sectionals. If she is doing that from the front it is going to take an exceptional effort for a horse to come from the back and run her down. Given that is the likely setup here in this race on Saturday it is very hard to see her being beat so keen to be in her corner again.

Betting strategy

I will have $110 the win on Quilista here and will lock in the $2.30 with TAB Fixed Odds QLD as I think she could start in the red!

Race Outlay

$110

Race 8 - Kingsford-Smith Cup

3:35pm

Suggested

The Bostonian (No.2), Victorem (No.3), Prompt Response (No.10) & Ringerdingding (No.14)

Dangers

Chapter And Verse (No.4), I Am Excited (No.12) & Irithea (No.15)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Group One Kingsford-Smith Cup over the 1300m. While it isn’t a vintage Group One field it certainly is a deep race with plenty of winning chances. It is an intriguing betting race that is for sure. I have to admit I was pretty happy when after doing the form I looked at the odds and saw Victorem had come up double figure odds. I just think this race represents a great opportunity to get a big race win under his belt. He has always been a horse that has shown great talent in lesser grade and always gave the feel he would eventually graduate to this level. Well today is graduation day. His first up run at Scone behind Viridine was excellent. They put a space on the rest of the field and had Victorem got to the outside and been able to build momentum a fraction earlier I dare say he may have turned the tables on Viridine. Regardless it was an excellent return and providing he has gone on from that then he is going to be very hard to beat here. He draws ideally in gate five to get a gun run just off the speed for Ben Looker and his second up record is outstanding. I think if he can hold a position and make use of that good draw then he can be very hard to hold out. I think at around that $10 mark he is an outstanding bet and keen to be with him. I am pretty keen to back up on The Bostonian after he saluted for us at a monster price in the Doomben 10,000 two weeks ago. He might be a horse that just loves Queensland. His record in this state is phenomenal and his win in the 10,000 two weeks ago was excellent. He was held up for a fair period in the straight but was able to take the run, burst through and win. His record in Queensland is four wins from as many starts and I think he is a great chance again of making it five on Saturday. He will put himself right in the firing line on speed and his record at this trip is also excellent. Happy to be with him again. Prompt Response is certainly the horse that went up the wrong price in early markets. I read on Twitter she went up huge odds and had been wound in constantly since then. This is a good mare who looks well placed in this race. She has form around genuine Group One gallopers and this is a race that probably lacks that genuine top class so I think she is well placed and in with a great chance. The first two runs of her campaign she chased home Trapeze Artist and Shoals in the Canterbury Stakes and then chased home Winx and Brutal in the George Ryder. That was fair form and then she looked the winner 200m out in the Queen Of The Turf at Randwick but probably just didn’t run out the 1600m too strongly as she was swamped late. I like her here freshened up and back to the 1300m. She has had a quiet trial in the meantime to keep her up to the mark and drawn well for Robbie Fradd to land on speed I think she will be in the firing line for a long way. Happy to be with her. The other horse I am going to have something on is Ringerdingding. He is just a bit of the x-factor horse in the race in my opinion. He had a bit of an interrupted autumn campaign before winning last start impressively in the Carbine Club on Derby Day in Sydney. He has been kept fresh since that win and that looks a good recipe here over the 1300m. He has had a nice trial recently to keep him up to the mark. He draws a nice gate to get a smothering run off the speed for James McDonald and if the race is run to suit those who will be strong late then he will be coming quickly. Happy to have him on side in a wide open race. The chances don’t end there though. It is a deep race. Chapter And Verse will appreciate getting back to Eagle Farm while Dollar For DollarTrekkingHome Of The BraveI Am Excited and Irithea all wouldn’t surprise. Then there is the real big x-factor of a two year old in Dubious having a run against the older horses with just 48kgs on his back. He would surprise me I have to admit but I like the wildcard factor he brings to the race. I am looking forward to this race. Keen on Victorem and certainly don’t want to be losing on the race if either of The BostonianPrompt Response or Ringerdingding can salute.

Betting strategy

There is some $10-11 floating around about Victorem and happy to lock that in and have $25 the win on him! I will save with $20 the win on The Bostonian and $15 the win on Prompt Response and Ringerdingding!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:10pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Seabrook (No.12) & Pohutukawa (No.14)

Dangers

Zoutori (No.4) & Vega One (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on for the three year olds. It is a big field with plenty of different form lines coming together. I bit the bullet with Military Zone at Scone last start and backed him on the basis that he was the best horse in the race despite knowing that the race may not pan out for him. Unfortunately for me it turned out that the race shape proved too powerful with his main rival and danger in the race Wild Planet getting a picnic in front and sprinting away to win well. Military Zone reeled off some super sectionals but needed to be something amazing to win given how the race was won. I was banking on Wild Planet not leading but landing in the coffin and in that scenario the result may have been different. I think he can make amends here. He draws gate three for James McDonald so from that gate I am hopeful he won’t have to get too far back and can hold a position much closer to the speed. If he can do that and be within striking distance and the breaks come his way in the straight he is going to be hard to hold out. His win the start prior to that in the Hawkesbury Guineas against a strong line up was really good. I think he is in the zone now pardon the pun and the big Eagle Farm track and 1400m looks ideal for him. If the breaks come his way he is clearly the one to beat in my opinion and happy to be with him. I am going to save on a couple of the fillies in the race who come into this race off a freshen up following a Sydney autumn campaign where they took on some of the better fillies in the country. The first of those is Pohutukawa who comes into this race off a freshen up after failing over the 2000m in the Vinery last start behind Verry Elleegant. Prior to that she had run two cracking races to kick off her campaign behind Nakeeta Jane before winning the Kembla Grange classic very easily. She has had a nice trial to keep her up to the mark since that Vinery run and is another that should appreciate the wide open spaces of Eagle Farm. She draws an ideal middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Corey Brown and should any rain arrive, that would be a bonus for her so happy to save on her. I also want to have something on Seabrook. I am not sure there should be too big a gap between these two in the market. I would say this is certainly the easiest race Seabrook has contested this campaign with three of her four runs in Sydney being at Group One level. The only other one at Group Two level she beat all bar Verry Elleegant. She draws ideally in gate one to lob just in behind the speed and I think at double figure odds she is capable of running well here so keen to keep her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here and save with $20 the win on Pohutukawa and $15 the win on Seabrook happy to take the $12 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:45pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Satori (No.7), Moor Wanted (No.10), Deep Euphoria (No.14) & Yousay Bolt (No.20)

Dangers

Fill The Flute (No.8) & Eurack (No.9)

Racing in Melbourne is again at Flemington this Saturday for another really deep and strong meeting for this time of year. The rain is forecast to arrive on Friday night and then persist into Saturday so I anticipate should that forecast come to fruition we may be racing on a soft surface. Remember Melbourne Cup Day though, in all seriousness that was monsoonal rain and by the Cup we still weren’t on a heavy track so I don’t anticipate it having too much effect as we aren’t expected to get that sort of rain. I would think we are a chance of sneaking into the soft range though. Tough program, I won’t lie. Big fields are the order of the day and there is some real competitive racing on offer. I am kicking off in the third race of the day which is down the straight over the 1100m. This race has a host of chances and there have already been a couple of runners well supported. I was steering clear of those runners and was basically trying to find a result with a couple of runners at big odds. I fancy this might be a testing 1100m down the straight and the two well fancied runners in Fill The Flute and Eurack are both first up here and known for their short course sprinting. I just think they may be a touch vulnerable late and that a horse like Satori with a solid 1100m run under his belt at The Bool this time in might be ready to rumble and prove a touch too strong late. Ironically I took him on first up at The Bool where he was a well supported favourite and while he was only just touched off into third place beaten a nose by a nose, he never really looked like winning the race for mine. I think he will be suited by this race down the straight as I fancy he might be looking for a bit further but this race may give the “feel” of a 1200m race. He also has the blinkers being applied to just sharpen him up that little bit which could be crucial. He handles all conditions and happy to be with him. Then I start to get into the roughies. The one I really like at odds that I was keen to have something on was Yousay Bolt. This is a lightly raced mare trained out of Albury who has shown good ability in her short career to date. She fell victim to the dreaded Dinopolous/Baron curse when she was backed off the map in a Rosehill highway back in November. She had run some really nice figures at her previous start win at Benalla but found Our Rosemaree too strong in the highway. She then had a two month break before winning at a very short quote at Corowa. She hasn’t been to the races since and seemingly likes her races well spaced. She has had a nice trial at Albury to keep her up to the mark for this, winkers go on from a middle draw and I thought she could run a cheeky race around the $30 mark. Like To Think So resumes here after he was down to resume at Caulfield two weeks back. He won a Bendigo jump out in nice fashion recently and his form last campaign around the likes of Haunted, Bravo Tango and Debt Collector certainly read well for a race of this nature. He has a good fresh record and while his best form is over 1200m or further I have already mentioned this race may suit that type of horse. I fancy he is ready to run a big race first up and looks backable around the $20-30 mark. Deep Euphoria was a painful result first up at Sandown when she just failed to run down one of her rivals here in Celtic Blast. I was on at big odds but she just couldn’t quite bridge the margin. That run was a marked improvement on what we saw from her last campaign and I think she appreciated getting on to a soft track again. She will hopefully get those conditions again here and up to the 1100m second up should suit so happy to have something on her again here. Moor Wanted is the other horse I will have something on. He landed good bets to win on the first day at The Bool over the carnival and he was a winner at his only start down the straight. He is another who will appreciate soft conditions and appears to be going well this time in, so the $20-30 about him is also appealing.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Satori here! I will also have $15 the win on Yousay Bolt and $10 the win on all three of Like To Think So, Moor Wanted and Deep Euphoria!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:25pm

Suggested

Odeon (No.1) & Strategic Demand (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.3) & Another Dollar (No.8)

This is a smaller field here over the mile but it is still a very competitive race. There are quite a few winning chances within the small field. Odeon hasn’t made winning a regular habit in recent times but he looks to get the right setup to break through here. All four of his runs this time in have been good, he just hasn’t won. He was excellent here first up behind Widgee Turf over the 1400m before running well in that hot form race – The Golden Mile at Bendigo. He then looked to have the race won at Caulfield third up but probably found the jump from the mile to 2000m a bridge too far that day on the quick back up. He then ran well in the Easter Cup two weeks later over the 2000m but just faded late. I walked away from those two races thinking that he might not be running out the 2000m as strongly these days. That’s why I think the setup of this race looks good for him. He is freshened up with about five weeks between runs into this race having had a recent trial win. He had the blinkers applied in that trial and they stay on here race day. He also finds a race that looks devoid of early speed so I fancy Craig Williams might be able to take advantage of that and roll forward up on speed. If he can do that then he should prove hard to run down. Given quite a few of his rivals are off speed gallopers he might have that positional advantage in running so happy to be with him. I ended up deciding to save on Strategic Demand who might be low level flying. I probably didn’t think I would be tipping the Great Western Cup winner in a Saturday meeting at Flemington but here we are. His first up run here behind Fastnet Tempest was really good. He was going through the line better than Another Dollar who he meets again here and while Another Dollar might potentially have a bit more scope she is half the price of Strategic Demand and for that reason I am happy to side with Strategic Demand. He has also had a trial since that first up run where he went particularly well against a couple of rivals from this race. He has no weight on his back, will do no work from the inside draw and he should run well, so happy to be with him around the $8 mark.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Odeon and save with $25 the win on Strategic Demand!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 5

2:05pm

Suggested

Fabric (No.10) & Shamal Lass (No.17)

Dangers

Vanuatu (No.6) & Neighbourhood (No.13)

Straight back to the big fields here in this race over the 1400m for the three year old fillies. This is another very competitive race. Shamal Lass comes through some strong maidens and comes to town here. I think this is a good filly. She hit the line well on debut at Ararat before she was well backed in a maiden at The Bool over the carnival. She unfortunately ran into a horse called Harbour Views there who proved too strong. We have seen that horse come out and bolt in since and he looks well above average. Shamal Lass went to Donald at her next start and we had the luxury of getting black figures about her. She looked a legitimate $1.50 shot and won accordingly with a fair bit in hand. She strikes me as a really progressive filly that might continue to go through her grades this campaign. She draws out here for Ollie so she will most likely get back off the speed and I given how strong she has been through the line at her last two starts she should be really good late here. There looks like there will be a genuine speed up front and from there she should finish off really well. I am happy to be with her here. Fabric and Neighbourhood come through the same race behind Fidelia last start but it was a real battle over who to go with. Neighbourhood appeared to have every chance there and was cut down late while Fabric had no luck at all back in behind horses. I think Fabric going to a wider draw here and Neighbourhood going to a lower draw probably shifts the balance of power in favour of Fabric. She looks to have come back well. Her first up win was excellent before running well when third behind Fidelia at Sandown. Craig Williams goes back on here from the middle draw and I think if she can build momentum and blend into the race which she hasn’t been able to at her last two runs from inside draws she should be well suited. Happy to side with her here on the home track.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Shamal Lass and Fabric here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:25pm

Suggested

Haunted (No.5) & Holbien (No.8)

Dangers

Manolo Blahniq (No.2) & Order Of Command (No.4)

This looks a good sprint race here down the straight. It is over the 1200m and it is another competitive field. I was probably a bit annoyed at myself with my Haunted bet in Adelaide at his most recent start. He was 1200m back to 1100m which didn’t really look the ideal setup but I thought his class would carry him through. He drew an inside gate though and just wasn’t able to build momentum. He ran into the subsequent Goodwood winner in Despatch there and wasn’t beaten far but never really looked like winning the race. His win first up was quite dominant though and I really thought this might be a campaign that he would go through his grades in. He looks to get a really good opportunity to bounce back here. He steps back up to the 1200m down the straight where he has performed well in the past and I like the fact that he draws out and can blend into the race for Craig Williams. I think he is the most progressive horse in the race and this looks winnable for him. I think the $3+ being bet about him is attractive and happy to be with him. I thought the runner at a bit of odds in the race that might run well is Holbien. If you go back through his recent form you can see he has run well here down the straight in a Standish behind Whispering Brook and he has also not been far away in the Group One C.F. Orr. His most recent run he wasn’t beaten far by Fifty Stars in what was a strong form race. He jumped out well recently and his 1200m form is actually really good. He seems to race well early in his campaigns and at double figure odds I think he looks a real dangerous runner here. Happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Haunted here having half now at the $3.30 with SportsBet and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will also have $20 the win on Holbien having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:05pm

Suggested

Runaway (No.11) & Surprise Baby (No.12)

Dangers

Steel Prince (No.2) & Alfarris (No.3)

This is the feature race of the day here over the 2800m. It is the Andrew Ramsden for the stayers and the winner will earn themselves a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup. While it has drawn a big field I don’t think it is a race that bats overly deep. I am hoping it plays out pretty straight forward. If it does then I think Surprise Baby will be very hard to beat. The Adelaide Cup winner looks a young stayer very much on the rise. He was an outstanding winner of that two mile race in May before turning in a sensational performance here last start at his first run back since that victory. He carried a big weight there and probably should have won. He was back on the inside in traffic and was unable to build any real momentum into the race. He was involved in a scrimmage on the home turn which resulted in a fall but he was able to overcome that and still hit the line strongly. Once he got to the outside and build momentum he really charged through the line. It was an exceptional run. Given how strong he was in winning the Adelaide Cup over the two miles, the 2800m here looks ideal for him. He draws out but that doesn’t particularly bother me over this longer trip. I imagine Dean Holland will try and ride him quietly from that gate and give him time to build into the race. Providing he gets even luck in running I think he is the best horse going forward and he should be just about winning. The stable is flying too which doesn’t hurt. Keen to be with him. Steel Prince is obviously his main danger and has won all four starts this campaign and has built up a pretty imposing career record. He has the services of Ollie and will get every possible chance. Given both a pretty tight in the market though it is impossible to back both so I have sided with Surprise Baby. The horse I want to save on at odds is Runaway. Gai Waterhouse has a pretty good record with horses over this trip at Flemington. She has made winning the St. Leger here at Flemington a regular habit and won it with this horse last year. It has been a bit of an odd preparation for Runaway in the fact he doesn’t come into this race with the miles in the legs, but Gai will no doubt have him primed. He won the Geelong Cup last spring and this race I dare say wouldn’t be as strong as that. His two runs this time in probably haven’t told us too much but I would expect him to improve pretty significantly up to this trip third up here. He has had a trial over the hurdles to sharpen him up for this and will roll forward and give a sight on speed. I thought at the $20 on offer he was the horse potentially over the odds in the race.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Surprise Baby here and $10 the win on Runaway!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 2

12:00pm

Suggested

Irish Songs (No.4), Bombdiggity (No.6) & Vernazza (No.9)

Dangers

Lifesaver (No.3) & Major Danger (No.5)

Racing in Sydney returns to Randwick this Saturday for what is a bit of an oddity in Sydney on a Saturday. It is a meeting with a massive number of runners and big fields. We have often mocked Sydney for their small fields but this meeting is really deep. Like Flemington, it is a deep meeting with plenty of chances. The rail is true and the track is good so the track should race perfectly. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is the Highway over the 1000m. They are going to go quickly here. Matty Dunn again brings two horses down for the Highway. He had two in last week, scratched one and the other went ordinary but it would appear at this stage that both Lifesaver and Vernazza will be making the journey down. I had a slight leaning to the latter who has the run under the belt and might be a little bit more untapped. I have been a fan of Vernazza from day one. I backed her on debut at Doomben back in June last year where she ran into the talented Malahide and was well beaten. She then went to Grafton and got the job done in a handy two year old race over their carnival. She then had a good break before her next run in December at Doomben where she finished down the track behind Outback Barbie. She was immediately spelled post that run and resumed at Murwillumbah two weeks ago. She was heavily backed there into an odds on favourite and despite working outside the leader, was able to get to the wider part in the track late in the day which was the place to be and won comfortably. I think she can go on from that here. She is lightly raced and seemingly with some scope which is the type of horse I like to back in these Highway races. She should land right on speed from gate four and be hard to beat so happy to be with her. Bombdiggity is another lightly raced three year old who makes the journey up from Goulburn here and he looks to have good ability. He won well on debut at Canberra back in October before running third at his second start on his home track and was immediately spelled post that run. He resumed at the Sapphire Coast in March with an easy win under a big weight as a short priced favourite and comes into this race off a two month break following that. He was given a nice quiet time in a recent Goulburn trial where I thought he went well. He gets in with no weight on his back here and around the $8 happy to be with him. The other runner I couldn’t really put my finger on was Irish Songs. He is another three year old that has taken on some handy horses in his career to date. The 1000m may be a bit a sharp for him but this looks a race loaded with early speed. He is drawn gate one and if he can be close enough to them in the run and the leaders overdo it he might be the one closing off strongest late. If the breaks come his way from the inside gate I think he is certainly good enough to win fresh. He was given a very quiet time in his recent trial and it was probably better than the finishing position suggests so happy to keep him on side.

Betting strategy

Deep highway to kick things off on! I will have $40 the win on Vernazza and $20 the win on Bombdiggity and Irish Songs!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Wolfe (No.4)

Dangers

Occupy (No.6) & Master Of Wine (No.11)

This race is over the 2000m and while it is a fair sized field, it looks a pretty skinny race. I think there are only a couple of winning chances and one in particular in Wolfe who looks extremely hard to beat. This looks a very exciting galloper. He has won three of four career starts and looks to have a very bright future in front of him. He is a Japanese bred galloper who won on debut at Kembla back in October when a massive drifter in the betting. The win was full of authority though and he went straight from that to Hawkesbury and an open Benchmark 64 and won impressively again. He then went out for a spell and resumed over the 1400m on ANZAC Day at Randwick where he was just touched off by Something Fast. He was kept up to the mark with a trial four days after that which was an odd training move but it seemed to do the trick as he went to the 1900m second up and was most impressive in winning at Canterbury. He ended up in the box seat (coffin) in that race and a few of his rivals in betting tried to make moves around him to keep him in a pocket. Those runs were short lived though and I loved the way Wolfe come off their back and picked up quickly to win running away. He just looks a really progressive horse that is going to go through his grades pretty quickly. He draws gate five here for Tim Clark and with that 1900m run under his belt last start he looks so well setup here at the 2000m third up. I think with even luck he will just be winning and the black figures might be a bit of a luxury come race day. Master Of Wine is the clear danger and I toyed with the idea of saving on him but really when a horse is as tight in the market is Wolfe is and I am that keen you probably have to bite the bullet and have a crack at him as a stand out bet. On a tough day he looks the best for me.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Wolfe here and will lock in the $2.05 as I fancy he may start in the red on race day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Quackerjack (No.1) & Nicco Lad (No.10)

Dangers

Kolding (No.5) & Asharani (No.8)

This race is over the 1500m for the three and four year olds and is another intriguing race. There are some handy horses going around in this race. The one I am taking on and most scared of is the favourite Kolding who has returned from a two month freshen up recently in super form. He has won both starts impressively and really chased through the line well in both wins. The concerning thing for me in this race is that he does draw gate one and I just feel he might end up in an awkward spot in the run and needing some luck. This is also a harder race and a horse like Quackerjack comes out of a strong Hawkesbury Guineas last start and will also be up on speed and rolling in clear air in front of Kolding in the run. For that reason I am happy to be with Quackerjack who appears to have come back well this time in. He resumed with a dominant win on the Kensington track before running well last start when second up in that Hawkesbury Guineas. He was clearly the best of the on pacers in that race. Third up to the 1500m here I think he looks really well placed. He has Josh Parr on board who is a renowned positive rider. He will send Quackerjack forward and he will be up on the speed rolling all of the way. I just think with that positional advantage in running he might be able to pick a bit of a break on some of his main rivals in the betting and get them off the bit and chasing. If that is the case he will be hard to run down, so keen to be in his corner. I am going to save on Nicco Lad who is a horse that will be back off them and hoping to run on. He has had three runs this time in and ran well at all of them without probably having the best of luck. He has drawn low gates in the majority of those and I just feel he might be a horse that is better suited with a bit more galloping room. I feel he hasn’t been able to really build full momentum when he has needed to in those runs. From the wider draw here he will be back off the speed but hopefully peeling into clear air and building at the right time. He should certainly be primed here at his fourth run back from a spell and I think he will also appreciate getting on to this big Randwick track. I just think this isn’t a bad setup for him and around the $8-9 mark he looked worthy of a bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Quackerjack here having half now at the $4.80 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $20 the win on Nicco Lad!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:10pm

Suggested

Noire (No.1), Renewal (No.11) & Organza (No.13)

Dangers

Special Missile (No.4) & Mahalangur (No.10)

This race looks fairly wide open with quite a few winning chances. I just think that Renewal is a horse that has always promised a fair bit and he might be on the cusp of starting to deliver on that promise. All his runs this time in have been strong. He resumed with a good win here before going to down to Melbourne and taking on some handy races where he ran well three times without winning. I was pretty confident about his chances last start when returning back to Sydney and he didn’t let me down. He sat handy to the speed and proved far too strong for Star Of The Seas who we saw come out and win impressively last Saturday. That form all looks pretty strong. He is fit and in form, stays down in the weights here and if Jean Van Overmeire can get him into a good spot from a potentially awkward wider draw then I anticipate him being hard to hold out again. Keen to be with him. I am keeping Organza on side here who resumed with an excellent Scone two weeks ago. She landed just off the speed there and looked the winner down the straight but was just touched off in a blanket finish. She is a very consistent mare that is building a strong overall record. The positive here is that she typically improves sharply off her first up run into her second up run as a rule and given she went so well first up if she was to replicate that pattern here then she is going to be very hard to hold out. Her 1400m record is excellent and while she also draws a touch wide and awkwardly, if Rachel King can get her into a good trailing position in the run I would expect her to be right in the finish so happy to be with her. The horse that I am going to keep on side in the race is Noire. This is a mare I have a fair bit of time for. She ran some cracking races through the spring against some of our best horses but didn’t seem to really go on with that this campaign. Her runs this autumn campaign have just been fair and lacking that bit of spark. She has been given a good freshen up since her most recent run about eight weeks back and I thought her recent trial may have been an indication that she is back on track. She was given a very soft time behind Desert Lord but looked to go through the line quite strongly. She draws gate one which may not be ideal here, but this is the easiest race she has contested for some time. If the breaks come her way and she can run anywhere near her best then she will give this a shake. She has come up double figure odds too which looks pretty big in a race of this nature so for mine at that price she is certainly well worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I am going to have $50 the win on Renewal here and save with $20 the win on Organza and Noire!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

3:50pm

Suggested

Deprive (No.15)

Dangers

Cradle Mountain (No.4) & Heart Conquered (No.12)

This race is over the 1100m for the sprinters and looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. The return of two very promising sprinters in Cradle Mountain and Deprive certainly bring a fair bit of spice to this race. Both have trialled well and both should come here pretty wound up. It looks to be a race with a fair bit of pressure early and for that reason I do lean to Deprive. I was happy to bet around him last Saturday before he was a late scratching at the barriers. I think that would have been the right decision had he run as I don’t think he would have beat Desert Lord. I think this race sets up nicely for him. I like him on the bigger Randwick track drawn out. I had a few concerns last Saturday where he was going to get to in the run around Rosehill from a low draw. I think on the big Randwick track here he can land back off the speed midfield, off the fence with a bit of cover and that should have him peeling into the clear at the right time ready to make his run. His form last time in was very good in strong form races and he has always been a horse that has had a bit of a boom on him. This isn’t an easy race but I think he might get the race run to suit up front so he can get over the top of them. To my eye he trialled like a horse that would be looking for 1200-1400m this time in so he will need to be pretty fresh here over the 1100m. With the strong speed up front though I can see him getting over the top of them late and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Deprive here!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 3

12:20pm

Suggested

Grinzinger Star (No.1) & Lord Arthur (No.8)

Dangers

Vow And Declare (No.4) & Bobby Dee (No.9)

Group One racing again comes from Brisbane this Saturday with the running of the Kingsford Smith Cup over the 1300m which is a relatively new race on the calendar. I think this might be the equivalent of the old Doomben 10,000 without diving too deeply into it. The weather in Queensland is OK, it isn’t great but it doesn’t look as if it will be too wet and I think we will get away with racing on a good track. There is a bit more intrigue in this meeting with a few horses coming off Doomben runs where they perhaps weren’t overly well suited and are now getting on to the big Eagle Farm track where we might see a few horses improve sharply. I am kicking off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 2200m. This is one of the lead ups to the Derby and we have a heap of different form lines coming together. There are horses coming from New Zealand, Sydney and Melbourne arriving to take on the locals. The New Zealand form interests me and Lord Arthur in particular looks a horse with some genuine staying talent. His win last start at Ellerslie was quite simply put, barnstorming. He sat back off the speed and rounded his rivals up from the back with a sharp turn of foot. He was a bit all over the place in the straight but the manner of the win was really impressive. I haven’t seen too many average horses win the way he did. I love the way when asked for an effort he really turned on the jets to run past his rivals. The start prior to that he was competitive with The Chosen One who we saw win really impressively at Randwick over the carnival in Sydney so I would be very surprised if he didn’t measure up here. The big Eagle Farm track looks like it will suit him ideally and the engagement of James McDonald from gate four can only be a positive one would think. He looks a good ‘orse in my eyes and keen to be with him here as I don’t think he meets any world beaters. I am going to save on Grinzinger Star who makes the journey north for the Danny O’Brien yard. I have to admit I did have a bit of a dilemma over which Danny O’Brien horse to back with him and Vow And Declare engaged. I just thought that Grinzinger Star with a few more runs under his belt would be a bit more seasoned to run out the 2200m than the stable mate who is only third up from a spell and rising in trip. Grinzinger Star’s form this time in has been excellent. He ran well first up at Caulfield when just touched off against the older horses before he rolled Mr Quickie second up which is very good form. He then stepped up to the 2000m at Caulfield back against the older horses and won easily before not having the best of luck at Flemington last start when involved in a scrimmage on the home corner which seemed to affect the way he finished off the race. I am happy to forgive that and will back him in to rebound here. I fancy Corey Brown might ride him a bit quieter from that wider draw and let him come with a good long run at them. He ran well in the Derby in Victoria last year so the trip is no issue and I would expect him to be hard to beat here so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Formality here and save with $10 the win on Seannie just in case!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 4

12:55pm

Suggested

Quilista (No.4)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.6) & Savatiano (No.8)

This race is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares and it looks another really good opportunity for Quilista to get another win on the board. Gee, that race last Saturday at Doomben looked well set up for her and she delivered accordingly. She jumped on the bunny controlled the tempo and sprinter away from her rivals to win easily. Her two runs prior to that were also good and her three runs in total now for the Snowden yard have been excellent. She looks a mare in the zone and I think they are worth sticking with. This is going to be tougher than last week in my opinion. She goes to 1300m and she also has to negotiate Eagle Farm which isn’t a big deal but we know Doomben can be heaven for those on speed when they can control the race like she did last week. The good thing about this race on Saturday is that she again looks to get complete control of the race early. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed and I would expect McEvoy to jump her on the bunny, get control and again be very hard to run down. The camp mentioned during the week that Quilista is relaxing a lot better in her races and that is allowing her to finish off her races with a lot more gusto and reel off quick final sectionals. If she is doing that from the front it is going to take an exceptional effort for a horse to come from the back and run her down. Given that is the likely setup here in this race on Saturday it is very hard to see her being beat so keen to be in her corner again.

Betting strategy

I will have $110 the win on Quilista here and will lock in the $2.30 with TAB Fixed Odds QLD as I think she could start in the red!

Race Outlay

$110

Race 8 - Kingsford-Smith Cup

3:35pm

Suggested

The Bostonian (No.2), Victorem (No.3), Prompt Response (No.10) & Ringerdingding (No.14)

Dangers

Chapter And Verse (No.4), I Am Excited (No.12) & Irithea (No.15)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Group One Kingsford-Smith Cup over the 1300m. While it isn’t a vintage Group One field it certainly is a deep race with plenty of winning chances. It is an intriguing betting race that is for sure. I have to admit I was pretty happy when after doing the form I looked at the odds and saw Victorem had come up double figure odds. I just think this race represents a great opportunity to get a big race win under his belt. He has always been a horse that has shown great talent in lesser grade and always gave the feel he would eventually graduate to this level. Well today is graduation day. His first up run at Scone behind Viridine was excellent. They put a space on the rest of the field and had Victorem got to the outside and been able to build momentum a fraction earlier I dare say he may have turned the tables on Viridine. Regardless it was an excellent return and providing he has gone on from that then he is going to be very hard to beat here. He draws ideally in gate five to get a gun run just off the speed for Ben Looker and his second up record is outstanding. I think if he can hold a position and make use of that good draw then he can be very hard to hold out. I think at around that $10 mark he is an outstanding bet and keen to be with him. I am pretty keen to back up on The Bostonian after he saluted for us at a monster price in the Doomben 10,000 two weeks ago. He might be a horse that just loves Queensland. His record in this state is phenomenal and his win in the 10,000 two weeks ago was excellent. He was held up for a fair period in the straight but was able to take the run, burst through and win. His record in Queensland is four wins from as many starts and I think he is a great chance again of making it five on Saturday. He will put himself right in the firing line on speed and his record at this trip is also excellent. Happy to be with him again. Prompt Response is certainly the horse that went up the wrong price in early markets. I read on Twitter she went up huge odds and had been wound in constantly since then. This is a good mare who looks well placed in this race. She has form around genuine Group One gallopers and this is a race that probably lacks that genuine top class so I think she is well placed and in with a great chance. The first two runs of her campaign she chased home Trapeze Artist and Shoals in the Canterbury Stakes and then chased home Winx and Brutal in the George Ryder. That was fair form and then she looked the winner 200m out in the Queen Of The Turf at Randwick but probably just didn’t run out the 1600m too strongly as she was swamped late. I like her here freshened up and back to the 1300m. She has had a quiet trial in the meantime to keep her up to the mark and drawn well for Robbie Fradd to land on speed I think she will be in the firing line for a long way. Happy to be with her. The other horse I am going to have something on is Ringerdingding. He is just a bit of the x-factor horse in the race in my opinion. He had a bit of an interrupted autumn campaign before winning last start impressively in the Carbine Club on Derby Day in Sydney. He has been kept fresh since that win and that looks a good recipe here over the 1300m. He has had a nice trial recently to keep him up to the mark. He draws a nice gate to get a smothering run off the speed for James McDonald and if the race is run to suit those who will be strong late then he will be coming quickly. Happy to have him on side in a wide open race. The chances don’t end there though. It is a deep race. Chapter And Verse will appreciate getting back to Eagle Farm while Dollar For DollarTrekkingHome Of The BraveI Am Excited and Irithea all wouldn’t surprise. Then there is the real big x-factor of a two year old in Dubious having a run against the older horses with just 48kgs on his back. He would surprise me I have to admit but I like the wildcard factor he brings to the race. I am looking forward to this race. Keen on Victorem and certainly don’t want to be losing on the race if either of The BostonianPrompt Response or Ringerdingding can salute.

Betting strategy

There is some $10-11 floating around about Victorem and happy to lock that in and have $25 the win on him! I will save with $20 the win on The Bostonian and $15 the win on Prompt Response and Ringerdingding!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:10pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Seabrook (No.12) & Pohutukawa (No.14)

Dangers

Zoutori (No.4) & Vega One (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on for the three year olds. It is a big field with plenty of different form lines coming together. I bit the bullet with Military Zone at Scone last start and backed him on the basis that he was the best horse in the race despite knowing that the race may not pan out for him. Unfortunately for me it turned out that the race shape proved too powerful with his main rival and danger in the race Wild Planet getting a picnic in front and sprinting away to win well. Military Zone reeled off some super sectionals but needed to be something amazing to win given how the race was won. I was banking on Wild Planet not leading but landing in the coffin and in that scenario the result may have been different. I think he can make amends here. He draws gate three for James McDonald so from that gate I am hopeful he won’t have to get too far back and can hold a position much closer to the speed. If he can do that and be within striking distance and the breaks come his way in the straight he is going to be hard to hold out. His win the start prior to that in the Hawkesbury Guineas against a strong line up was really good. I think he is in the zone now pardon the pun and the big Eagle Farm track and 1400m looks ideal for him. If the breaks come his way he is clearly the one to beat in my opinion and happy to be with him. I am going to save on a couple of the fillies in the race who come into this race off a freshen up following a Sydney autumn campaign where they took on some of the better fillies in the country. The first of those is Pohutukawa who comes into this race off a freshen up after failing over the 2000m in the Vinery last start behind Verry Elleegant. Prior to that she had run two cracking races to kick off her campaign behind Nakeeta Jane before winning the Kembla Grange classic very easily. She has had a nice trial to keep her up to the mark since that Vinery run and is another that should appreciate the wide open spaces of Eagle Farm. She draws an ideal middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Corey Brown and should any rain arrive, that would be a bonus for her so happy to save on her. I also want to have something on Seabrook. I am not sure there should be too big a gap between these two in the market. I would say this is certainly the easiest race Seabrook has contested this campaign with three of her four runs in Sydney being at Group One level. The only other one at Group Two level she beat all bar Verry Elleegant. She draws ideally in gate one to lob just in behind the speed and I think at double figure odds she is capable of running well here so keen to keep her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here and save with $20 the win on Pohutukawa and $15 the win on Seabrook happy to take the $12 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:45pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Satori (No.7), Moor Wanted (No.10), Deep Euphoria (No.14) & Yousay Bolt (No.20)

Dangers

Fill The Flute (No.8) & Eurack (No.9)

Racing in Melbourne is again at Flemington this Saturday for another really deep and strong meeting for this time of year. The rain is forecast to arrive on Friday night and then persist into Saturday so I anticipate should that forecast come to fruition we may be racing on a soft surface. Remember Melbourne Cup Day though, in all seriousness that was monsoonal rain and by the Cup we still weren’t on a heavy track so I don’t anticipate it having too much effect as we aren’t expected to get that sort of rain. I would think we are a chance of sneaking into the soft range though. Tough program, I won’t lie. Big fields are the order of the day and there is some real competitive racing on offer. I am kicking off in the third race of the day which is down the straight over the 1100m. This race has a host of chances and there have already been a couple of runners well supported. I was steering clear of those runners and was basically trying to find a result with a couple of runners at big odds. I fancy this might be a testing 1100m down the straight and the two well fancied runners in Fill The Flute and Eurack are both first up here and known for their short course sprinting. I just think they may be a touch vulnerable late and that a horse like Satori with a solid 1100m run under his belt at The Bool this time in might be ready to rumble and prove a touch too strong late. Ironically I took him on first up at The Bool where he was a well supported favourite and while he was only just touched off into third place beaten a nose by a nose, he never really looked like winning the race for mine. I think he will be suited by this race down the straight as I fancy he might be looking for a bit further but this race may give the “feel” of a 1200m race. He also has the blinkers being applied to just sharpen him up that little bit which could be crucial. He handles all conditions and happy to be with him. Then I start to get into the roughies. The one I really like at odds that I was keen to have something on was Yousay Bolt. This is a lightly raced mare trained out of Albury who has shown good ability in her short career to date. She fell victim to the dreaded Dinopolous/Baron curse when she was backed off the map in a Rosehill highway back in November. She had run some really nice figures at her previous start win at Benalla but found Our Rosemaree too strong in the highway. She then had a two month break before winning at a very short quote at Corowa. She hasn’t been to the races since and seemingly likes her races well spaced. She has had a nice trial at Albury to keep her up to the mark for this, winkers go on from a middle draw and I thought she could run a cheeky race around the $30 mark. Like To Think So resumes here after he was down to resume at Caulfield two weeks back. He won a Bendigo jump out in nice fashion recently and his form last campaign around the likes of Haunted, Bravo Tango and Debt Collector certainly read well for a race of this nature. He has a good fresh record and while his best form is over 1200m or further I have already mentioned this race may suit that type of horse. I fancy he is ready to run a big race first up and looks backable around the $20-30 mark. Deep Euphoria was a painful result first up at Sandown when she just failed to run down one of her rivals here in Celtic Blast. I was on at big odds but she just couldn’t quite bridge the margin. That run was a marked improvement on what we saw from her last campaign and I think she appreciated getting on to a soft track again. She will hopefully get those conditions again here and up to the 1100m second up should suit so happy to have something on her again here. Moor Wanted is the other horse I will have something on. He landed good bets to win on the first day at The Bool over the carnival and he was a winner at his only start down the straight. He is another who will appreciate soft conditions and appears to be going well this time in, so the $20-30 about him is also appealing.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Satori here! I will also have $15 the win on Yousay Bolt and $10 the win on all three of Like To Think So, Moor Wanted and Deep Euphoria!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:25pm

Suggested

Odeon (No.1) & Strategic Demand (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.3) & Another Dollar (No.8)

This is a smaller field here over the mile but it is still a very competitive race. There are quite a few winning chances within the small field. Odeon hasn’t made winning a regular habit in recent times but he looks to get the right setup to break through here. All four of his runs this time in have been good, he just hasn’t won. He was excellent here first up behind Widgee Turf over the 1400m before running well in that hot form race – The Golden Mile at Bendigo. He then looked to have the race won at Caulfield third up but probably found the jump from the mile to 2000m a bridge too far that day on the quick back up. He then ran well in the Easter Cup two weeks later over the 2000m but just faded late. I walked away from those two races thinking that he might not be running out the 2000m as strongly these days. That’s why I think the setup of this race looks good for him. He is freshened up with about five weeks between runs into this race having had a recent trial win. He had the blinkers applied in that trial and they stay on here race day. He also finds a race that looks devoid of early speed so I fancy Craig Williams might be able to take advantage of that and roll forward up on speed. If he can do that then he should prove hard to run down. Given quite a few of his rivals are off speed gallopers he might have that positional advantage in running so happy to be with him. I ended up deciding to save on Strategic Demand who might be low level flying. I probably didn’t think I would be tipping the Great Western Cup winner in a Saturday meeting at Flemington but here we are. His first up run here behind Fastnet Tempest was really good. He was going through the line better than Another Dollar who he meets again here and while Another Dollar might potentially have a bit more scope she is half the price of Strategic Demand and for that reason I am happy to side with Strategic Demand. He has also had a trial since that first up run where he went particularly well against a couple of rivals from this race. He has no weight on his back, will do no work from the inside draw and he should run well, so happy to be with him around the $8 mark.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Odeon and save with $25 the win on Strategic Demand!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 5

2:05pm

Suggested

Fabric (No.10) & Shamal Lass (No.17)

Dangers

Vanuatu (No.6) & Neighbourhood (No.13)

Straight back to the big fields here in this race over the 1400m for the three year old fillies. This is another very competitive race. Shamal Lass comes through some strong maidens and comes to town here. I think this is a good filly. She hit the line well on debut at Ararat before she was well backed in a maiden at The Bool over the carnival. She unfortunately ran into a horse called Harbour Views there who proved too strong. We have seen that horse come out and bolt in since and he looks well above average. Shamal Lass went to Donald at her next start and we had the luxury of getting black figures about her. She looked a legitimate $1.50 shot and won accordingly with a fair bit in hand. She strikes me as a really progressive filly that might continue to go through her grades this campaign. She draws out here for Ollie so she will most likely get back off the speed and I given how strong she has been through the line at her last two starts she should be really good late here. There looks like there will be a genuine speed up front and from there she should finish off really well. I am happy to be with her here. Fabric and Neighbourhood come through the same race behind Fidelia last start but it was a real battle over who to go with. Neighbourhood appeared to have every chance there and was cut down late while Fabric had no luck at all back in behind horses. I think Fabric going to a wider draw here and Neighbourhood going to a lower draw probably shifts the balance of power in favour of Fabric. She looks to have come back well. Her first up win was excellent before running well when third behind Fidelia at Sandown. Craig Williams goes back on here from the middle draw and I think if she can build momentum and blend into the race which she hasn’t been able to at her last two runs from inside draws she should be well suited. Happy to side with her here on the home track.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Shamal Lass and Fabric here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:25pm

Suggested

Haunted (No.5) & Holbien (No.8)

Dangers

Manolo Blahniq (No.2) & Order Of Command (No.4)

This looks a good sprint race here down the straight. It is over the 1200m and it is another competitive field. I was probably a bit annoyed at myself with my Haunted bet in Adelaide at his most recent start. He was 1200m back to 1100m which didn’t really look the ideal setup but I thought his class would carry him through. He drew an inside gate though and just wasn’t able to build momentum. He ran into the subsequent Goodwood winner in Despatch there and wasn’t beaten far but never really looked like winning the race. His win first up was quite dominant though and I really thought this might be a campaign that he would go through his grades in. He looks to get a really good opportunity to bounce back here. He steps back up to the 1200m down the straight where he has performed well in the past and I like the fact that he draws out and can blend into the race for Craig Williams. I think he is the most progressive horse in the race and this looks winnable for him. I think the $3+ being bet about him is attractive and happy to be with him. I thought the runner at a bit of odds in the race that might run well is Holbien. If you go back through his recent form you can see he has run well here down the straight in a Standish behind Whispering Brook and he has also not been far away in the Group One C.F. Orr. His most recent run he wasn’t beaten far by Fifty Stars in what was a strong form race. He jumped out well recently and his 1200m form is actually really good. He seems to race well early in his campaigns and at double figure odds I think he looks a real dangerous runner here. Happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Haunted here having half now at the $3.30 with SportsBet and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will also have $20 the win on Holbien having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:05pm

Suggested

Runaway (No.11) & Surprise Baby (No.12)

Dangers

Steel Prince (No.2) & Alfarris (No.3)

This is the feature race of the day here over the 2800m. It is the Andrew Ramsden for the stayers and the winner will earn themselves a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup. While it has drawn a big field I don’t think it is a race that bats overly deep. I am hoping it plays out pretty straight forward. If it does then I think Surprise Baby will be very hard to beat. The Adelaide Cup winner looks a young stayer very much on the rise. He was an outstanding winner of that two mile race in May before turning in a sensational performance here last start at his first run back since that victory. He carried a big weight there and probably should have won. He was back on the inside in traffic and was unable to build any real momentum into the race. He was involved in a scrimmage on the home turn which resulted in a fall but he was able to overcome that and still hit the line strongly. Once he got to the outside and build momentum he really charged through the line. It was an exceptional run. Given how strong he was in winning the Adelaide Cup over the two miles, the 2800m here looks ideal for him. He draws out but that doesn’t particularly bother me over this longer trip. I imagine Dean Holland will try and ride him quietly from that gate and give him time to build into the race. Providing he gets even luck in running I think he is the best horse going forward and he should be just about winning. The stable is flying too which doesn’t hurt. Keen to be with him. Steel Prince is obviously his main danger and has won all four starts this campaign and has built up a pretty imposing career record. He has the services of Ollie and will get every possible chance. Given both a pretty tight in the market though it is impossible to back both so I have sided with Surprise Baby. The horse I want to save on at odds is Runaway. Gai Waterhouse has a pretty good record with horses over this trip at Flemington. She has made winning the St. Leger here at Flemington a regular habit and won it with this horse last year. It has been a bit of an odd preparation for Runaway in the fact he doesn’t come into this race with the miles in the legs, but Gai will no doubt have him primed. He won the Geelong Cup last spring and this race I dare say wouldn’t be as strong as that. His two runs this time in probably haven’t told us too much but I would expect him to improve pretty significantly up to this trip third up here. He has had a trial over the hurdles to sharpen him up for this and will roll forward and give a sight on speed. I thought at the $20 on offer he was the horse potentially over the odds in the race.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Surprise Baby here and $10 the win on Runaway!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 2

12:00pm

Suggested

Irish Songs (No.4), Bombdiggity (No.6) & Vernazza (No.9)

Dangers

Lifesaver (No.3) & Major Danger (No.5)

Racing in Sydney returns to Randwick this Saturday for what is a bit of an oddity in Sydney on a Saturday. It is a meeting with a massive number of runners and big fields. We have often mocked Sydney for their small fields but this meeting is really deep. Like Flemington, it is a deep meeting with plenty of chances. The rail is true and the track is good so the track should race perfectly. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is the Highway over the 1000m. They are going to go quickly here. Matty Dunn again brings two horses down for the Highway. He had two in last week, scratched one and the other went ordinary but it would appear at this stage that both Lifesaver and Vernazza will be making the journey down. I had a slight leaning to the latter who has the run under the belt and might be a little bit more untapped. I have been a fan of Vernazza from day one. I backed her on debut at Doomben back in June last year where she ran into the talented Malahide and was well beaten. She then went to Grafton and got the job done in a handy two year old race over their carnival. She then had a good break before her next run in December at Doomben where she finished down the track behind Outback Barbie. She was immediately spelled post that run and resumed at Murwillumbah two weeks ago. She was heavily backed there into an odds on favourite and despite working outside the leader, was able to get to the wider part in the track late in the day which was the place to be and won comfortably. I think she can go on from that here. She is lightly raced and seemingly with some scope which is the type of horse I like to back in these Highway races. She should land right on speed from gate four and be hard to beat so happy to be with her. Bombdiggity is another lightly raced three year old who makes the journey up from Goulburn here and he looks to have good ability. He won well on debut at Canberra back in October before running third at his second start on his home track and was immediately spelled post that run. He resumed at the Sapphire Coast in March with an easy win under a big weight as a short priced favourite and comes into this race off a two month break following that. He was given a nice quiet time in a recent Goulburn trial where I thought he went well. He gets in with no weight on his back here and around the $8 happy to be with him. The other runner I couldn’t really put my finger on was Irish Songs. He is another three year old that has taken on some handy horses in his career to date. The 1000m may be a bit a sharp for him but this looks a race loaded with early speed. He is drawn gate one and if he can be close enough to them in the run and the leaders overdo it he might be the one closing off strongest late. If the breaks come his way from the inside gate I think he is certainly good enough to win fresh. He was given a very quiet time in his recent trial and it was probably better than the finishing position suggests so happy to keep him on side.

Betting strategy

Deep highway to kick things off on! I will have $40 the win on Vernazza and $20 the win on Bombdiggity and Irish Songs!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Wolfe (No.4)

Dangers

Occupy (No.6) & Master Of Wine (No.11)

This race is over the 2000m and while it is a fair sized field, it looks a pretty skinny race. I think there are only a couple of winning chances and one in particular in Wolfe who looks extremely hard to beat. This looks a very exciting galloper. He has won three of four career starts and looks to have a very bright future in front of him. He is a Japanese bred galloper who won on debut at Kembla back in October when a massive drifter in the betting. The win was full of authority though and he went straight from that to Hawkesbury and an open Benchmark 64 and won impressively again. He then went out for a spell and resumed over the 1400m on ANZAC Day at Randwick where he was just touched off by Something Fast. He was kept up to the mark with a trial four days after that which was an odd training move but it seemed to do the trick as he went to the 1900m second up and was most impressive in winning at Canterbury. He ended up in the box seat (coffin) in that race and a few of his rivals in betting tried to make moves around him to keep him in a pocket. Those runs were short lived though and I loved the way Wolfe come off their back and picked up quickly to win running away. He just looks a really progressive horse that is going to go through his grades pretty quickly. He draws gate five here for Tim Clark and with that 1900m run under his belt last start he looks so well setup here at the 2000m third up. I think with even luck he will just be winning and the black figures might be a bit of a luxury come race day. Master Of Wine is the clear danger and I toyed with the idea of saving on him but really when a horse is as tight in the market is Wolfe is and I am that keen you probably have to bite the bullet and have a crack at him as a stand out bet. On a tough day he looks the best for me.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Wolfe here and will lock in the $2.05 as I fancy he may start in the red on race day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Quackerjack (No.1) & Nicco Lad (No.10)

Dangers

Kolding (No.5) & Asharani (No.8)

This race is over the 1500m for the three and four year olds and is another intriguing race. There are some handy horses going around in this race. The one I am taking on and most scared of is the favourite Kolding who has returned from a two month freshen up recently in super form. He has won both starts impressively and really chased through the line well in both wins. The concerning thing for me in this race is that he does draw gate one and I just feel he might end up in an awkward spot in the run and needing some luck. This is also a harder race and a horse like Quackerjack comes out of a strong Hawkesbury Guineas last start and will also be up on speed and rolling in clear air in front of Kolding in the run. For that reason I am happy to be with Quackerjack who appears to have come back well this time in. He resumed with a dominant win on the Kensington track before running well last start when second up in that Hawkesbury Guineas. He was clearly the best of the on pacers in that race. Third up to the 1500m here I think he looks really well placed. He has Josh Parr on board who is a renowned positive rider. He will send Quackerjack forward and he will be up on the speed rolling all of the way. I just think with that positional advantage in running he might be able to pick a bit of a break on some of his main rivals in the betting and get them off the bit and chasing. If that is the case he will be hard to run down, so keen to be in his corner. I am going to save on Nicco Lad who is a horse that will be back off them and hoping to run on. He has had three runs this time in and ran well at all of them without probably having the best of luck. He has drawn low gates in the majority of those and I just feel he might be a horse that is better suited with a bit more galloping room. I feel he hasn’t been able to really build full momentum when he has needed to in those runs. From the wider draw here he will be back off the speed but hopefully peeling into clear air and building at the right time. He should certainly be primed here at his fourth run back from a spell and I think he will also appreciate getting on to this big Randwick track. I just think this isn’t a bad setup for him and around the $8-9 mark he looked worthy of a bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Quackerjack here having half now at the $4.80 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $20 the win on Nicco Lad!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:10pm

Suggested

Noire (No.1), Renewal (No.11) & Organza (No.13)

Dangers

Special Missile (No.4) & Mahalangur (No.10)

This race looks fairly wide open with quite a few winning chances. I just think that Renewal is a horse that has always promised a fair bit and he might be on the cusp of starting to deliver on that promise. All his runs this time in have been strong. He resumed with a good win here before going to down to Melbourne and taking on some handy races where he ran well three times without winning. I was pretty confident about his chances last start when returning back to Sydney and he didn’t let me down. He sat handy to the speed and proved far too strong for Star Of The Seas who we saw come out and win impressively last Saturday. That form all looks pretty strong. He is fit and in form, stays down in the weights here and if Jean Van Overmeire can get him into a good spot from a potentially awkward wider draw then I anticipate him being hard to hold out again. Keen to be with him. I am keeping Organza on side here who resumed with an excellent Scone two weeks ago. She landed just off the speed there and looked the winner down the straight but was just touched off in a blanket finish. She is a very consistent mare that is building a strong overall record. The positive here is that she typically improves sharply off her first up run into her second up run as a rule and given she went so well first up if she was to replicate that pattern here then she is going to be very hard to hold out. Her 1400m record is excellent and while she also draws a touch wide and awkwardly, if Rachel King can get her into a good trailing position in the run I would expect her to be right in the finish so happy to be with her. The horse that I am going to keep on side in the race is Noire. This is a mare I have a fair bit of time for. She ran some cracking races through the spring against some of our best horses but didn’t seem to really go on with that this campaign. Her runs this autumn campaign have just been fair and lacking that bit of spark. She has been given a good freshen up since her most recent run about eight weeks back and I thought her recent trial may have been an indication that she is back on track. She was given a very soft time behind Desert Lord but looked to go through the line quite strongly. She draws gate one which may not be ideal here, but this is the easiest race she has contested for some time. If the breaks come her way and she can run anywhere near her best then she will give this a shake. She has come up double figure odds too which looks pretty big in a race of this nature so for mine at that price she is certainly well worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I am going to have $50 the win on Renewal here and save with $20 the win on Organza and Noire!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

3:50pm

Suggested

Deprive (No.15)

Dangers

Cradle Mountain (No.4) & Heart Conquered (No.12)

This race is over the 1100m for the sprinters and looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. The return of two very promising sprinters in Cradle Mountain and Deprive certainly bring a fair bit of spice to this race. Both have trialled well and both should come here pretty wound up. It looks to be a race with a fair bit of pressure early and for that reason I do lean to Deprive. I was happy to bet around him last Saturday before he was a late scratching at the barriers. I think that would have been the right decision had he run as I don’t think he would have beat Desert Lord. I think this race sets up nicely for him. I like him on the bigger Randwick track drawn out. I had a few concerns last Saturday where he was going to get to in the run around Rosehill from a low draw. I think on the big Randwick track here he can land back off the speed midfield, off the fence with a bit of cover and that should have him peeling into the clear at the right time ready to make his run. His form last time in was very good in strong form races and he has always been a horse that has had a bit of a boom on him. This isn’t an easy race but I think he might get the race run to suit up front so he can get over the top of them. To my eye he trialled like a horse that would be looking for 1200-1400m this time in so he will need to be pretty fresh here over the 1100m. With the strong speed up front though I can see him getting over the top of them late and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Deprive here!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 3

12:20pm

Suggested

Grinzinger Star (No.1) & Lord Arthur (No.8)

Dangers

Vow And Declare (No.4) & Bobby Dee (No.9)

Group One racing again comes from Brisbane this Saturday with the running of the Kingsford Smith Cup over the 1300m which is a relatively new race on the calendar. I think this might be the equivalent of the old Doomben 10,000 without diving too deeply into it. The weather in Queensland is OK, it isn’t great but it doesn’t look as if it will be too wet and I think we will get away with racing on a good track. There is a bit more intrigue in this meeting with a few horses coming off Doomben runs where they perhaps weren’t overly well suited and are now getting on to the big Eagle Farm track where we might see a few horses improve sharply. I am kicking off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 2200m. This is one of the lead ups to the Derby and we have a heap of different form lines coming together. There are horses coming from New Zealand, Sydney and Melbourne arriving to take on the locals. The New Zealand form interests me and Lord Arthur in particular looks a horse with some genuine staying talent. His win last start at Ellerslie was quite simply put, barnstorming. He sat back off the speed and rounded his rivals up from the back with a sharp turn of foot. He was a bit all over the place in the straight but the manner of the win was really impressive. I haven’t seen too many average horses win the way he did. I love the way when asked for an effort he really turned on the jets to run past his rivals. The start prior to that he was competitive with The Chosen One who we saw win really impressively at Randwick over the carnival in Sydney so I would be very surprised if he didn’t measure up here. The big Eagle Farm track looks like it will suit him ideally and the engagement of James McDonald from gate four can only be a positive one would think. He looks a good ‘orse in my eyes and keen to be with him here as I don’t think he meets any world beaters. I am going to save on Grinzinger Star who makes the journey north for the Danny O’Brien yard. I have to admit I did have a bit of a dilemma over which Danny O’Brien horse to back with him and Vow And Declare engaged. I just thought that Grinzinger Star with a few more runs under his belt would be a bit more seasoned to run out the 2200m than the stable mate who is only third up from a spell and rising in trip. Grinzinger Star’s form this time in has been excellent. He ran well first up at Caulfield when just touched off against the older horses before he rolled Mr Quickie second up which is very good form. He then stepped up to the 2000m at Caulfield back against the older horses and won easily before not having the best of luck at Flemington last start when involved in a scrimmage on the home corner which seemed to affect the way he finished off the race. I am happy to forgive that and will back him in to rebound here. I fancy Corey Brown might ride him a bit quieter from that wider draw and let him come with a good long run at them. He ran well in the Derby in Victoria last year so the trip is no issue and I would expect him to be hard to beat here so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Formality here and save with $10 the win on Seannie just in case!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 4

12:55pm

Suggested

Quilista (No.4)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.6) & Savatiano (No.8)

This race is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares and it looks another really good opportunity for Quilista to get another win on the board. Gee, that race last Saturday at Doomben looked well set up for her and she delivered accordingly. She jumped on the bunny controlled the tempo and sprinter away from her rivals to win easily. Her two runs prior to that were also good and her three runs in total now for the Snowden yard have been excellent. She looks a mare in the zone and I think they are worth sticking with. This is going to be tougher than last week in my opinion. She goes to 1300m and she also has to negotiate Eagle Farm which isn’t a big deal but we know Doomben can be heaven for those on speed when they can control the race like she did last week. The good thing about this race on Saturday is that she again looks to get complete control of the race early. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed and I would expect McEvoy to jump her on the bunny, get control and again be very hard to run down. The camp mentioned during the week that Quilista is relaxing a lot better in her races and that is allowing her to finish off her races with a lot more gusto and reel off quick final sectionals. If she is doing that from the front it is going to take an exceptional effort for a horse to come from the back and run her down. Given that is the likely setup here in this race on Saturday it is very hard to see her being beat so keen to be in her corner again.

Betting strategy

I will have $110 the win on Quilista here and will lock in the $2.30 with TAB Fixed Odds QLD as I think she could start in the red!

Race Outlay

$110

Race 8 - Kingsford-Smith Cup

3:35pm

Suggested

The Bostonian (No.2), Victorem (No.3), Prompt Response (No.10) & Ringerdingding (No.14)

Dangers

Chapter And Verse (No.4), I Am Excited (No.12) & Irithea (No.15)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Group One Kingsford-Smith Cup over the 1300m. While it isn’t a vintage Group One field it certainly is a deep race with plenty of winning chances. It is an intriguing betting race that is for sure. I have to admit I was pretty happy when after doing the form I looked at the odds and saw Victorem had come up double figure odds. I just think this race represents a great opportunity to get a big race win under his belt. He has always been a horse that has shown great talent in lesser grade and always gave the feel he would eventually graduate to this level. Well today is graduation day. His first up run at Scone behind Viridine was excellent. They put a space on the rest of the field and had Victorem got to the outside and been able to build momentum a fraction earlier I dare say he may have turned the tables on Viridine. Regardless it was an excellent return and providing he has gone on from that then he is going to be very hard to beat here. He draws ideally in gate five to get a gun run just off the speed for Ben Looker and his second up record is outstanding. I think if he can hold a position and make use of that good draw then he can be very hard to hold out. I think at around that $10 mark he is an outstanding bet and keen to be with him. I am pretty keen to back up on The Bostonian after he saluted for us at a monster price in the Doomben 10,000 two weeks ago. He might be a horse that just loves Queensland. His record in this state is phenomenal and his win in the 10,000 two weeks ago was excellent. He was held up for a fair period in the straight but was able to take the run, burst through and win. His record in Queensland is four wins from as many starts and I think he is a great chance again of making it five on Saturday. He will put himself right in the firing line on speed and his record at this trip is also excellent. Happy to be with him again. Prompt Response is certainly the horse that went up the wrong price in early markets. I read on Twitter she went up huge odds and had been wound in constantly since then. This is a good mare who looks well placed in this race. She has form around genuine Group One gallopers and this is a race that probably lacks that genuine top class so I think she is well placed and in with a great chance. The first two runs of her campaign she chased home Trapeze Artist and Shoals in the Canterbury Stakes and then chased home Winx and Brutal in the George Ryder. That was fair form and then she looked the winner 200m out in the Queen Of The Turf at Randwick but probably just didn’t run out the 1600m too strongly as she was swamped late. I like her here freshened up and back to the 1300m. She has had a quiet trial in the meantime to keep her up to the mark and drawn well for Robbie Fradd to land on speed I think she will be in the firing line for a long way. Happy to be with her. The other horse I am going to have something on is Ringerdingding. He is just a bit of the x-factor horse in the race in my opinion. He had a bit of an interrupted autumn campaign before winning last start impressively in the Carbine Club on Derby Day in Sydney. He has been kept fresh since that win and that looks a good recipe here over the 1300m. He has had a nice trial recently to keep him up to the mark. He draws a nice gate to get a smothering run off the speed for James McDonald and if the race is run to suit those who will be strong late then he will be coming quickly. Happy to have him on side in a wide open race. The chances don’t end there though. It is a deep race. Chapter And Verse will appreciate getting back to Eagle Farm while Dollar For DollarTrekkingHome Of The BraveI Am Excited and Irithea all wouldn’t surprise. Then there is the real big x-factor of a two year old in Dubious having a run against the older horses with just 48kgs on his back. He would surprise me I have to admit but I like the wildcard factor he brings to the race. I am looking forward to this race. Keen on Victorem and certainly don’t want to be losing on the race if either of The BostonianPrompt Response or Ringerdingding can salute.

Betting strategy

There is some $10-11 floating around about Victorem and happy to lock that in and have $25 the win on him! I will save with $20 the win on The Bostonian and $15 the win on Prompt Response and Ringerdingding!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:10pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Seabrook (No.12) & Pohutukawa (No.14)

Dangers

Zoutori (No.4) & Vega One (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on for the three year olds. It is a big field with plenty of different form lines coming together. I bit the bullet with Military Zone at Scone last start and backed him on the basis that he was the best horse in the race despite knowing that the race may not pan out for him. Unfortunately for me it turned out that the race shape proved too powerful with his main rival and danger in the race Wild Planet getting a picnic in front and sprinting away to win well. Military Zone reeled off some super sectionals but needed to be something amazing to win given how the race was won. I was banking on Wild Planet not leading but landing in the coffin and in that scenario the result may have been different. I think he can make amends here. He draws gate three for James McDonald so from that gate I am hopeful he won’t have to get too far back and can hold a position much closer to the speed. If he can do that and be within striking distance and the breaks come his way in the straight he is going to be hard to hold out. His win the start prior to that in the Hawkesbury Guineas against a strong line up was really good. I think he is in the zone now pardon the pun and the big Eagle Farm track and 1400m looks ideal for him. If the breaks come his way he is clearly the one to beat in my opinion and happy to be with him. I am going to save on a couple of the fillies in the race who come into this race off a freshen up following a Sydney autumn campaign where they took on some of the better fillies in the country. The first of those is Pohutukawa who comes into this race off a freshen up after failing over the 2000m in the Vinery last start behind Verry Elleegant. Prior to that she had run two cracking races to kick off her campaign behind Nakeeta Jane before winning the Kembla Grange classic very easily. She has had a nice trial to keep her up to the mark since that Vinery run and is another that should appreciate the wide open spaces of Eagle Farm. She draws an ideal middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Corey Brown and should any rain arrive, that would be a bonus for her so happy to save on her. I also want to have something on Seabrook. I am not sure there should be too big a gap between these two in the market. I would say this is certainly the easiest race Seabrook has contested this campaign with three of her four runs in Sydney being at Group One level. The only other one at Group Two level she beat all bar Verry Elleegant. She draws ideally in gate one to lob just in behind the speed and I think at double figure odds she is capable of running well here so keen to keep her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here and save with $20 the win on Pohutukawa and $15 the win on Seabrook happy to take the $12 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:45pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Satori (No.7), Moor Wanted (No.10), Deep Euphoria (No.14) & Yousay Bolt (No.20)

Dangers

Fill The Flute (No.8) & Eurack (No.9)

Racing in Melbourne is again at Flemington this Saturday for another really deep and strong meeting for this time of year. The rain is forecast to arrive on Friday night and then persist into Saturday so I anticipate should that forecast come to fruition we may be racing on a soft surface. Remember Melbourne Cup Day though, in all seriousness that was monsoonal rain and by the Cup we still weren’t on a heavy track so I don’t anticipate it having too much effect as we aren’t expected to get that sort of rain. I would think we are a chance of sneaking into the soft range though. Tough program, I won’t lie. Big fields are the order of the day and there is some real competitive racing on offer. I am kicking off in the third race of the day which is down the straight over the 1100m. This race has a host of chances and there have already been a couple of runners well supported. I was steering clear of those runners and was basically trying to find a result with a couple of runners at big odds. I fancy this might be a testing 1100m down the straight and the two well fancied runners in Fill The Flute and Eurack are both first up here and known for their short course sprinting. I just think they may be a touch vulnerable late and that a horse like Satori with a solid 1100m run under his belt at The Bool this time in might be ready to rumble and prove a touch too strong late. Ironically I took him on first up at The Bool where he was a well supported favourite and while he was only just touched off into third place beaten a nose by a nose, he never really looked like winning the race for mine. I think he will be suited by this race down the straight as I fancy he might be looking for a bit further but this race may give the “feel” of a 1200m race. He also has the blinkers being applied to just sharpen him up that little bit which could be crucial. He handles all conditions and happy to be with him. Then I start to get into the roughies. The one I really like at odds that I was keen to have something on was Yousay Bolt. This is a lightly raced mare trained out of Albury who has shown good ability in her short career to date. She fell victim to the dreaded Dinopolous/Baron curse when she was backed off the map in a Rosehill highway back in November. She had run some really nice figures at her previous start win at Benalla but found Our Rosemaree too strong in the highway. She then had a two month break before winning at a very short quote at Corowa. She hasn’t been to the races since and seemingly likes her races well spaced. She has had a nice trial at Albury to keep her up to the mark for this, winkers go on from a middle draw and I thought she could run a cheeky race around the $30 mark. Like To Think So resumes here after he was down to resume at Caulfield two weeks back. He won a Bendigo jump out in nice fashion recently and his form last campaign around the likes of Haunted, Bravo Tango and Debt Collector certainly read well for a race of this nature. He has a good fresh record and while his best form is over 1200m or further I have already mentioned this race may suit that type of horse. I fancy he is ready to run a big race first up and looks backable around the $20-30 mark. Deep Euphoria was a painful result first up at Sandown when she just failed to run down one of her rivals here in Celtic Blast. I was on at big odds but she just couldn’t quite bridge the margin. That run was a marked improvement on what we saw from her last campaign and I think she appreciated getting on to a soft track again. She will hopefully get those conditions again here and up to the 1100m second up should suit so happy to have something on her again here. Moor Wanted is the other horse I will have something on. He landed good bets to win on the first day at The Bool over the carnival and he was a winner at his only start down the straight. He is another who will appreciate soft conditions and appears to be going well this time in, so the $20-30 about him is also appealing.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Satori here! I will also have $15 the win on Yousay Bolt and $10 the win on all three of Like To Think So, Moor Wanted and Deep Euphoria!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:25pm

Suggested

Odeon (No.1) & Strategic Demand (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.3) & Another Dollar (No.8)

This is a smaller field here over the mile but it is still a very competitive race. There are quite a few winning chances within the small field. Odeon hasn’t made winning a regular habit in recent times but he looks to get the right setup to break through here. All four of his runs this time in have been good, he just hasn’t won. He was excellent here first up behind Widgee Turf over the 1400m before running well in that hot form race – The Golden Mile at Bendigo. He then looked to have the race won at Caulfield third up but probably found the jump from the mile to 2000m a bridge too far that day on the quick back up. He then ran well in the Easter Cup two weeks later over the 2000m but just faded late. I walked away from those two races thinking that he might not be running out the 2000m as strongly these days. That’s why I think the setup of this race looks good for him. He is freshened up with about five weeks between runs into this race having had a recent trial win. He had the blinkers applied in that trial and they stay on here race day. He also finds a race that looks devoid of early speed so I fancy Craig Williams might be able to take advantage of that and roll forward up on speed. If he can do that then he should prove hard to run down. Given quite a few of his rivals are off speed gallopers he might have that positional advantage in running so happy to be with him. I ended up deciding to save on Strategic Demand who might be low level flying. I probably didn’t think I would be tipping the Great Western Cup winner in a Saturday meeting at Flemington but here we are. His first up run here behind Fastnet Tempest was really good. He was going through the line better than Another Dollar who he meets again here and while Another Dollar might potentially have a bit more scope she is half the price of Strategic Demand and for that reason I am happy to side with Strategic Demand. He has also had a trial since that first up run where he went particularly well against a couple of rivals from this race. He has no weight on his back, will do no work from the inside draw and he should run well, so happy to be with him around the $8 mark.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Odeon and save with $25 the win on Strategic Demand!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 5

2:05pm

Suggested

Fabric (No.10) & Shamal Lass (No.17)

Dangers

Vanuatu (No.6) & Neighbourhood (No.13)

Straight back to the big fields here in this race over the 1400m for the three year old fillies. This is another very competitive race. Shamal Lass comes through some strong maidens and comes to town here. I think this is a good filly. She hit the line well on debut at Ararat before she was well backed in a maiden at The Bool over the carnival. She unfortunately ran into a horse called Harbour Views there who proved too strong. We have seen that horse come out and bolt in since and he looks well above average. Shamal Lass went to Donald at her next start and we had the luxury of getting black figures about her. She looked a legitimate $1.50 shot and won accordingly with a fair bit in hand. She strikes me as a really progressive filly that might continue to go through her grades this campaign. She draws out here for Ollie so she will most likely get back off the speed and I given how strong she has been through the line at her last two starts she should be really good late here. There looks like there will be a genuine speed up front and from there she should finish off really well. I am happy to be with her here. Fabric and Neighbourhood come through the same race behind Fidelia last start but it was a real battle over who to go with. Neighbourhood appeared to have every chance there and was cut down late while Fabric had no luck at all back in behind horses. I think Fabric going to a wider draw here and Neighbourhood going to a lower draw probably shifts the balance of power in favour of Fabric. She looks to have come back well. Her first up win was excellent before running well when third behind Fidelia at Sandown. Craig Williams goes back on here from the middle draw and I think if she can build momentum and blend into the race which she hasn’t been able to at her last two runs from inside draws she should be well suited. Happy to side with her here on the home track.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Shamal Lass and Fabric here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:25pm

Suggested

Haunted (No.5) & Holbien (No.8)

Dangers

Manolo Blahniq (No.2) & Order Of Command (No.4)

This looks a good sprint race here down the straight. It is over the 1200m and it is another competitive field. I was probably a bit annoyed at myself with my Haunted bet in Adelaide at his most recent start. He was 1200m back to 1100m which didn’t really look the ideal setup but I thought his class would carry him through. He drew an inside gate though and just wasn’t able to build momentum. He ran into the subsequent Goodwood winner in Despatch there and wasn’t beaten far but never really looked like winning the race. His win first up was quite dominant though and I really thought this might be a campaign that he would go through his grades in. He looks to get a really good opportunity to bounce back here. He steps back up to the 1200m down the straight where he has performed well in the past and I like the fact that he draws out and can blend into the race for Craig Williams. I think he is the most progressive horse in the race and this looks winnable for him. I think the $3+ being bet about him is attractive and happy to be with him. I thought the runner at a bit of odds in the race that might run well is Holbien. If you go back through his recent form you can see he has run well here down the straight in a Standish behind Whispering Brook and he has also not been far away in the Group One C.F. Orr. His most recent run he wasn’t beaten far by Fifty Stars in what was a strong form race. He jumped out well recently and his 1200m form is actually really good. He seems to race well early in his campaigns and at double figure odds I think he looks a real dangerous runner here. Happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Haunted here having half now at the $3.30 with SportsBet and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will also have $20 the win on Holbien having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:05pm

Suggested

Runaway (No.11) & Surprise Baby (No.12)

Dangers

Steel Prince (No.2) & Alfarris (No.3)

This is the feature race of the day here over the 2800m. It is the Andrew Ramsden for the stayers and the winner will earn themselves a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup. While it has drawn a big field I don’t think it is a race that bats overly deep. I am hoping it plays out pretty straight forward. If it does then I think Surprise Baby will be very hard to beat. The Adelaide Cup winner looks a young stayer very much on the rise. He was an outstanding winner of that two mile race in May before turning in a sensational performance here last start at his first run back since that victory. He carried a big weight there and probably should have won. He was back on the inside in traffic and was unable to build any real momentum into the race. He was involved in a scrimmage on the home turn which resulted in a fall but he was able to overcome that and still hit the line strongly. Once he got to the outside and build momentum he really charged through the line. It was an exceptional run. Given how strong he was in winning the Adelaide Cup over the two miles, the 2800m here looks ideal for him. He draws out but that doesn’t particularly bother me over this longer trip. I imagine Dean Holland will try and ride him quietly from that gate and give him time to build into the race. Providing he gets even luck in running I think he is the best horse going forward and he should be just about winning. The stable is flying too which doesn’t hurt. Keen to be with him. Steel Prince is obviously his main danger and has won all four starts this campaign and has built up a pretty imposing career record. He has the services of Ollie and will get every possible chance. Given both a pretty tight in the market though it is impossible to back both so I have sided with Surprise Baby. The horse I want to save on at odds is Runaway. Gai Waterhouse has a pretty good record with horses over this trip at Flemington. She has made winning the St. Leger here at Flemington a regular habit and won it with this horse last year. It has been a bit of an odd preparation for Runaway in the fact he doesn’t come into this race with the miles in the legs, but Gai will no doubt have him primed. He won the Geelong Cup last spring and this race I dare say wouldn’t be as strong as that. His two runs this time in probably haven’t told us too much but I would expect him to improve pretty significantly up to this trip third up here. He has had a trial over the hurdles to sharpen him up for this and will roll forward and give a sight on speed. I thought at the $20 on offer he was the horse potentially over the odds in the race.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Surprise Baby here and $10 the win on Runaway!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 2

12:00pm

Suggested

Irish Songs (No.4), Bombdiggity (No.6) & Vernazza (No.9)

Dangers

Lifesaver (No.3) & Major Danger (No.5)

Racing in Sydney returns to Randwick this Saturday for what is a bit of an oddity in Sydney on a Saturday. It is a meeting with a massive number of runners and big fields. We have often mocked Sydney for their small fields but this meeting is really deep. Like Flemington, it is a deep meeting with plenty of chances. The rail is true and the track is good so the track should race perfectly. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is the Highway over the 1000m. They are going to go quickly here. Matty Dunn again brings two horses down for the Highway. He had two in last week, scratched one and the other went ordinary but it would appear at this stage that both Lifesaver and Vernazza will be making the journey down. I had a slight leaning to the latter who has the run under the belt and might be a little bit more untapped. I have been a fan of Vernazza from day one. I backed her on debut at Doomben back in June last year where she ran into the talented Malahide and was well beaten. She then went to Grafton and got the job done in a handy two year old race over their carnival. She then had a good break before her next run in December at Doomben where she finished down the track behind Outback Barbie. She was immediately spelled post that run and resumed at Murwillumbah two weeks ago. She was heavily backed there into an odds on favourite and despite working outside the leader, was able to get to the wider part in the track late in the day which was the place to be and won comfortably. I think she can go on from that here. She is lightly raced and seemingly with some scope which is the type of horse I like to back in these Highway races. She should land right on speed from gate four and be hard to beat so happy to be with her. Bombdiggity is another lightly raced three year old who makes the journey up from Goulburn here and he looks to have good ability. He won well on debut at Canberra back in October before running third at his second start on his home track and was immediately spelled post that run. He resumed at the Sapphire Coast in March with an easy win under a big weight as a short priced favourite and comes into this race off a two month break following that. He was given a nice quiet time in a recent Goulburn trial where I thought he went well. He gets in with no weight on his back here and around the $8 happy to be with him. The other runner I couldn’t really put my finger on was Irish Songs. He is another three year old that has taken on some handy horses in his career to date. The 1000m may be a bit a sharp for him but this looks a race loaded with early speed. He is drawn gate one and if he can be close enough to them in the run and the leaders overdo it he might be the one closing off strongest late. If the breaks come his way from the inside gate I think he is certainly good enough to win fresh. He was given a very quiet time in his recent trial and it was probably better than the finishing position suggests so happy to keep him on side.

Betting strategy

Deep highway to kick things off on! I will have $40 the win on Vernazza and $20 the win on Bombdiggity and Irish Songs!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Wolfe (No.4)

Dangers

Occupy (No.6) & Master Of Wine (No.11)

This race is over the 2000m and while it is a fair sized field, it looks a pretty skinny race. I think there are only a couple of winning chances and one in particular in Wolfe who looks extremely hard to beat. This looks a very exciting galloper. He has won three of four career starts and looks to have a very bright future in front of him. He is a Japanese bred galloper who won on debut at Kembla back in October when a massive drifter in the betting. The win was full of authority though and he went straight from that to Hawkesbury and an open Benchmark 64 and won impressively again. He then went out for a spell and resumed over the 1400m on ANZAC Day at Randwick where he was just touched off by Something Fast. He was kept up to the mark with a trial four days after that which was an odd training move but it seemed to do the trick as he went to the 1900m second up and was most impressive in winning at Canterbury. He ended up in the box seat (coffin) in that race and a few of his rivals in betting tried to make moves around him to keep him in a pocket. Those runs were short lived though and I loved the way Wolfe come off their back and picked up quickly to win running away. He just looks a really progressive horse that is going to go through his grades pretty quickly. He draws gate five here for Tim Clark and with that 1900m run under his belt last start he looks so well setup here at the 2000m third up. I think with even luck he will just be winning and the black figures might be a bit of a luxury come race day. Master Of Wine is the clear danger and I toyed with the idea of saving on him but really when a horse is as tight in the market is Wolfe is and I am that keen you probably have to bite the bullet and have a crack at him as a stand out bet. On a tough day he looks the best for me.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Wolfe here and will lock in the $2.05 as I fancy he may start in the red on race day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Quackerjack (No.1) & Nicco Lad (No.10)

Dangers

Kolding (No.5) & Asharani (No.8)

This race is over the 1500m for the three and four year olds and is another intriguing race. There are some handy horses going around in this race. The one I am taking on and most scared of is the favourite Kolding who has returned from a two month freshen up recently in super form. He has won both starts impressively and really chased through the line well in both wins. The concerning thing for me in this race is that he does draw gate one and I just feel he might end up in an awkward spot in the run and needing some luck. This is also a harder race and a horse like Quackerjack comes out of a strong Hawkesbury Guineas last start and will also be up on speed and rolling in clear air in front of Kolding in the run. For that reason I am happy to be with Quackerjack who appears to have come back well this time in. He resumed with a dominant win on the Kensington track before running well last start when second up in that Hawkesbury Guineas. He was clearly the best of the on pacers in that race. Third up to the 1500m here I think he looks really well placed. He has Josh Parr on board who is a renowned positive rider. He will send Quackerjack forward and he will be up on the speed rolling all of the way. I just think with that positional advantage in running he might be able to pick a bit of a break on some of his main rivals in the betting and get them off the bit and chasing. If that is the case he will be hard to run down, so keen to be in his corner. I am going to save on Nicco Lad who is a horse that will be back off them and hoping to run on. He has had three runs this time in and ran well at all of them without probably having the best of luck. He has drawn low gates in the majority of those and I just feel he might be a horse that is better suited with a bit more galloping room. I feel he hasn’t been able to really build full momentum when he has needed to in those runs. From the wider draw here he will be back off the speed but hopefully peeling into clear air and building at the right time. He should certainly be primed here at his fourth run back from a spell and I think he will also appreciate getting on to this big Randwick track. I just think this isn’t a bad setup for him and around the $8-9 mark he looked worthy of a bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Quackerjack here having half now at the $4.80 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $20 the win on Nicco Lad!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:10pm

Suggested

Noire (No.1), Renewal (No.11) & Organza (No.13)

Dangers

Special Missile (No.4) & Mahalangur (No.10)

This race looks fairly wide open with quite a few winning chances. I just think that Renewal is a horse that has always promised a fair bit and he might be on the cusp of starting to deliver on that promise. All his runs this time in have been strong. He resumed with a good win here before going to down to Melbourne and taking on some handy races where he ran well three times without winning. I was pretty confident about his chances last start when returning back to Sydney and he didn’t let me down. He sat handy to the speed and proved far too strong for Star Of The Seas who we saw come out and win impressively last Saturday. That form all looks pretty strong. He is fit and in form, stays down in the weights here and if Jean Van Overmeire can get him into a good spot from a potentially awkward wider draw then I anticipate him being hard to hold out again. Keen to be with him. I am keeping Organza on side here who resumed with an excellent Scone two weeks ago. She landed just off the speed there and looked the winner down the straight but was just touched off in a blanket finish. She is a very consistent mare that is building a strong overall record. The positive here is that she typically improves sharply off her first up run into her second up run as a rule and given she went so well first up if she was to replicate that pattern here then she is going to be very hard to hold out. Her 1400m record is excellent and while she also draws a touch wide and awkwardly, if Rachel King can get her into a good trailing position in the run I would expect her to be right in the finish so happy to be with her. The horse that I am going to keep on side in the race is Noire. This is a mare I have a fair bit of time for. She ran some cracking races through the spring against some of our best horses but didn’t seem to really go on with that this campaign. Her runs this autumn campaign have just been fair and lacking that bit of spark. She has been given a good freshen up since her most recent run about eight weeks back and I thought her recent trial may have been an indication that she is back on track. She was given a very soft time behind Desert Lord but looked to go through the line quite strongly. She draws gate one which may not be ideal here, but this is the easiest race she has contested for some time. If the breaks come her way and she can run anywhere near her best then she will give this a shake. She has come up double figure odds too which looks pretty big in a race of this nature so for mine at that price she is certainly well worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I am going to have $50 the win on Renewal here and save with $20 the win on Organza and Noire!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

3:50pm

Suggested

Deprive (No.15)

Dangers

Cradle Mountain (No.4) & Heart Conquered (No.12)

This race is over the 1100m for the sprinters and looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. The return of two very promising sprinters in Cradle Mountain and Deprive certainly bring a fair bit of spice to this race. Both have trialled well and both should come here pretty wound up. It looks to be a race with a fair bit of pressure early and for that reason I do lean to Deprive. I was happy to bet around him last Saturday before he was a late scratching at the barriers. I think that would have been the right decision had he run as I don’t think he would have beat Desert Lord. I think this race sets up nicely for him. I like him on the bigger Randwick track drawn out. I had a few concerns last Saturday where he was going to get to in the run around Rosehill from a low draw. I think on the big Randwick track here he can land back off the speed midfield, off the fence with a bit of cover and that should have him peeling into the clear at the right time ready to make his run. His form last time in was very good in strong form races and he has always been a horse that has had a bit of a boom on him. This isn’t an easy race but I think he might get the race run to suit up front so he can get over the top of them. To my eye he trialled like a horse that would be looking for 1200-1400m this time in so he will need to be pretty fresh here over the 1100m. With the strong speed up front though I can see him getting over the top of them late and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Deprive here!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 3

12:20pm

Suggested

Grinzinger Star (No.1) & Lord Arthur (No.8)

Dangers

Vow And Declare (No.4) & Bobby Dee (No.9)

Group One racing again comes from Brisbane this Saturday with the running of the Kingsford Smith Cup over the 1300m which is a relatively new race on the calendar. I think this might be the equivalent of the old Doomben 10,000 without diving too deeply into it. The weather in Queensland is OK, it isn’t great but it doesn’t look as if it will be too wet and I think we will get away with racing on a good track. There is a bit more intrigue in this meeting with a few horses coming off Doomben runs where they perhaps weren’t overly well suited and are now getting on to the big Eagle Farm track where we might see a few horses improve sharply. I am kicking off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 2200m. This is one of the lead ups to the Derby and we have a heap of different form lines coming together. There are horses coming from New Zealand, Sydney and Melbourne arriving to take on the locals. The New Zealand form interests me and Lord Arthur in particular looks a horse with some genuine staying talent. His win last start at Ellerslie was quite simply put, barnstorming. He sat back off the speed and rounded his rivals up from the back with a sharp turn of foot. He was a bit all over the place in the straight but the manner of the win was really impressive. I haven’t seen too many average horses win the way he did. I love the way when asked for an effort he really turned on the jets to run past his rivals. The start prior to that he was competitive with The Chosen One who we saw win really impressively at Randwick over the carnival in Sydney so I would be very surprised if he didn’t measure up here. The big Eagle Farm track looks like it will suit him ideally and the engagement of James McDonald from gate four can only be a positive one would think. He looks a good ‘orse in my eyes and keen to be with him here as I don’t think he meets any world beaters. I am going to save on Grinzinger Star who makes the journey north for the Danny O’Brien yard. I have to admit I did have a bit of a dilemma over which Danny O’Brien horse to back with him and Vow And Declare engaged. I just thought that Grinzinger Star with a few more runs under his belt would be a bit more seasoned to run out the 2200m than the stable mate who is only third up from a spell and rising in trip. Grinzinger Star’s form this time in has been excellent. He ran well first up at Caulfield when just touched off against the older horses before he rolled Mr Quickie second up which is very good form. He then stepped up to the 2000m at Caulfield back against the older horses and won easily before not having the best of luck at Flemington last start when involved in a scrimmage on the home corner which seemed to affect the way he finished off the race. I am happy to forgive that and will back him in to rebound here. I fancy Corey Brown might ride him a bit quieter from that wider draw and let him come with a good long run at them. He ran well in the Derby in Victoria last year so the trip is no issue and I would expect him to be hard to beat here so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Formality here and save with $10 the win on Seannie just in case!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 4

12:55pm

Suggested

Quilista (No.4)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.6) & Savatiano (No.8)

This race is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares and it looks another really good opportunity for Quilista to get another win on the board. Gee, that race last Saturday at Doomben looked well set up for her and she delivered accordingly. She jumped on the bunny controlled the tempo and sprinter away from her rivals to win easily. Her two runs prior to that were also good and her three runs in total now for the Snowden yard have been excellent. She looks a mare in the zone and I think they are worth sticking with. This is going to be tougher than last week in my opinion. She goes to 1300m and she also has to negotiate Eagle Farm which isn’t a big deal but we know Doomben can be heaven for those on speed when they can control the race like she did last week. The good thing about this race on Saturday is that she again looks to get complete control of the race early. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed and I would expect McEvoy to jump her on the bunny, get control and again be very hard to run down. The camp mentioned during the week that Quilista is relaxing a lot better in her races and that is allowing her to finish off her races with a lot more gusto and reel off quick final sectionals. If she is doing that from the front it is going to take an exceptional effort for a horse to come from the back and run her down. Given that is the likely setup here in this race on Saturday it is very hard to see her being beat so keen to be in her corner again.

Betting strategy

I will have $110 the win on Quilista here and will lock in the $2.30 with TAB Fixed Odds QLD as I think she could start in the red!

Race Outlay

$110

Race 8 - Kingsford-Smith Cup

3:35pm

Suggested

The Bostonian (No.2), Victorem (No.3), Prompt Response (No.10) & Ringerdingding (No.14)

Dangers

Chapter And Verse (No.4), I Am Excited (No.12) & Irithea (No.15)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Group One Kingsford-Smith Cup over the 1300m. While it isn’t a vintage Group One field it certainly is a deep race with plenty of winning chances. It is an intriguing betting race that is for sure. I have to admit I was pretty happy when after doing the form I looked at the odds and saw Victorem had come up double figure odds. I just think this race represents a great opportunity to get a big race win under his belt. He has always been a horse that has shown great talent in lesser grade and always gave the feel he would eventually graduate to this level. Well today is graduation day. His first up run at Scone behind Viridine was excellent. They put a space on the rest of the field and had Victorem got to the outside and been able to build momentum a fraction earlier I dare say he may have turned the tables on Viridine. Regardless it was an excellent return and providing he has gone on from that then he is going to be very hard to beat here. He draws ideally in gate five to get a gun run just off the speed for Ben Looker and his second up record is outstanding. I think if he can hold a position and make use of that good draw then he can be very hard to hold out. I think at around that $10 mark he is an outstanding bet and keen to be with him. I am pretty keen to back up on The Bostonian after he saluted for us at a monster price in the Doomben 10,000 two weeks ago. He might be a horse that just loves Queensland. His record in this state is phenomenal and his win in the 10,000 two weeks ago was excellent. He was held up for a fair period in the straight but was able to take the run, burst through and win. His record in Queensland is four wins from as many starts and I think he is a great chance again of making it five on Saturday. He will put himself right in the firing line on speed and his record at this trip is also excellent. Happy to be with him again. Prompt Response is certainly the horse that went up the wrong price in early markets. I read on Twitter she went up huge odds and had been wound in constantly since then. This is a good mare who looks well placed in this race. She has form around genuine Group One gallopers and this is a race that probably lacks that genuine top class so I think she is well placed and in with a great chance. The first two runs of her campaign she chased home Trapeze Artist and Shoals in the Canterbury Stakes and then chased home Winx and Brutal in the George Ryder. That was fair form and then she looked the winner 200m out in the Queen Of The Turf at Randwick but probably just didn’t run out the 1600m too strongly as she was swamped late. I like her here freshened up and back to the 1300m. She has had a quiet trial in the meantime to keep her up to the mark and drawn well for Robbie Fradd to land on speed I think she will be in the firing line for a long way. Happy to be with her. The other horse I am going to have something on is Ringerdingding. He is just a bit of the x-factor horse in the race in my opinion. He had a bit of an interrupted autumn campaign before winning last start impressively in the Carbine Club on Derby Day in Sydney. He has been kept fresh since that win and that looks a good recipe here over the 1300m. He has had a nice trial recently to keep him up to the mark. He draws a nice gate to get a smothering run off the speed for James McDonald and if the race is run to suit those who will be strong late then he will be coming quickly. Happy to have him on side in a wide open race. The chances don’t end there though. It is a deep race. Chapter And Verse will appreciate getting back to Eagle Farm while Dollar For DollarTrekkingHome Of The BraveI Am Excited and Irithea all wouldn’t surprise. Then there is the real big x-factor of a two year old in Dubious having a run against the older horses with just 48kgs on his back. He would surprise me I have to admit but I like the wildcard factor he brings to the race. I am looking forward to this race. Keen on Victorem and certainly don’t want to be losing on the race if either of The BostonianPrompt Response or Ringerdingding can salute.

Betting strategy

There is some $10-11 floating around about Victorem and happy to lock that in and have $25 the win on him! I will save with $20 the win on The Bostonian and $15 the win on Prompt Response and Ringerdingding!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:10pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Seabrook (No.12) & Pohutukawa (No.14)

Dangers

Zoutori (No.4) & Vega One (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on for the three year olds. It is a big field with plenty of different form lines coming together. I bit the bullet with Military Zone at Scone last start and backed him on the basis that he was the best horse in the race despite knowing that the race may not pan out for him. Unfortunately for me it turned out that the race shape proved too powerful with his main rival and danger in the race Wild Planet getting a picnic in front and sprinting away to win well. Military Zone reeled off some super sectionals but needed to be something amazing to win given how the race was won. I was banking on Wild Planet not leading but landing in the coffin and in that scenario the result may have been different. I think he can make amends here. He draws gate three for James McDonald so from that gate I am hopeful he won’t have to get too far back and can hold a position much closer to the speed. If he can do that and be within striking distance and the breaks come his way in the straight he is going to be hard to hold out. His win the start prior to that in the Hawkesbury Guineas against a strong line up was really good. I think he is in the zone now pardon the pun and the big Eagle Farm track and 1400m looks ideal for him. If the breaks come his way he is clearly the one to beat in my opinion and happy to be with him. I am going to save on a couple of the fillies in the race who come into this race off a freshen up following a Sydney autumn campaign where they took on some of the better fillies in the country. The first of those is Pohutukawa who comes into this race off a freshen up after failing over the 2000m in the Vinery last start behind Verry Elleegant. Prior to that she had run two cracking races to kick off her campaign behind Nakeeta Jane before winning the Kembla Grange classic very easily. She has had a nice trial to keep her up to the mark since that Vinery run and is another that should appreciate the wide open spaces of Eagle Farm. She draws an ideal middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Corey Brown and should any rain arrive, that would be a bonus for her so happy to save on her. I also want to have something on Seabrook. I am not sure there should be too big a gap between these two in the market. I would say this is certainly the easiest race Seabrook has contested this campaign with three of her four runs in Sydney being at Group One level. The only other one at Group Two level she beat all bar Verry Elleegant. She draws ideally in gate one to lob just in behind the speed and I think at double figure odds she is capable of running well here so keen to keep her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here and save with $20 the win on Pohutukawa and $15 the win on Seabrook happy to take the $12 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:45pm

Suggested

Like To Think So (No.3), Satori (No.7), Moor Wanted (No.10), Deep Euphoria (No.14) & Yousay Bolt (No.20)

Dangers

Fill The Flute (No.8) & Eurack (No.9)

Racing in Melbourne is again at Flemington this Saturday for another really deep and strong meeting for this time of year. The rain is forecast to arrive on Friday night and then persist into Saturday so I anticipate should that forecast come to fruition we may be racing on a soft surface. Remember Melbourne Cup Day though, in all seriousness that was monsoonal rain and by the Cup we still weren’t on a heavy track so I don’t anticipate it having too much effect as we aren’t expected to get that sort of rain. I would think we are a chance of sneaking into the soft range though. Tough program, I won’t lie. Big fields are the order of the day and there is some real competitive racing on offer. I am kicking off in the third race of the day which is down the straight over the 1100m. This race has a host of chances and there have already been a couple of runners well supported. I was steering clear of those runners and was basically trying to find a result with a couple of runners at big odds. I fancy this might be a testing 1100m down the straight and the two well fancied runners in Fill The Flute and Eurack are both first up here and known for their short course sprinting. I just think they may be a touch vulnerable late and that a horse like Satori with a solid 1100m run under his belt at The Bool this time in might be ready to rumble and prove a touch too strong late. Ironically I took him on first up at The Bool where he was a well supported favourite and while he was only just touched off into third place beaten a nose by a nose, he never really looked like winning the race for mine. I think he will be suited by this race down the straight as I fancy he might be looking for a bit further but this race may give the “feel” of a 1200m race. He also has the blinkers being applied to just sharpen him up that little bit which could be crucial. He handles all conditions and happy to be with him. Then I start to get into the roughies. The one I really like at odds that I was keen to have something on was Yousay Bolt. This is a lightly raced mare trained out of Albury who has shown good ability in her short career to date. She fell victim to the dreaded Dinopolous/Baron curse when she was backed off the map in a Rosehill highway back in November. She had run some really nice figures at her previous start win at Benalla but found Our Rosemaree too strong in the highway. She then had a two month break before winning at a very short quote at Corowa. She hasn’t been to the races since and seemingly likes her races well spaced. She has had a nice trial at Albury to keep her up to the mark for this, winkers go on from a middle draw and I thought she could run a cheeky race around the $30 mark. Like To Think So resumes here after he was down to resume at Caulfield two weeks back. He won a Bendigo jump out in nice fashion recently and his form last campaign around the likes of Haunted, Bravo Tango and Debt Collector certainly read well for a race of this nature. He has a good fresh record and while his best form is over 1200m or further I have already mentioned this race may suit that type of horse. I fancy he is ready to run a big race first up and looks backable around the $20-30 mark. Deep Euphoria was a painful result first up at Sandown when she just failed to run down one of her rivals here in Celtic Blast. I was on at big odds but she just couldn’t quite bridge the margin. That run was a marked improvement on what we saw from her last campaign and I think she appreciated getting on to a soft track again. She will hopefully get those conditions again here and up to the 1100m second up should suit so happy to have something on her again here. Moor Wanted is the other horse I will have something on. He landed good bets to win on the first day at The Bool over the carnival and he was a winner at his only start down the straight. He is another who will appreciate soft conditions and appears to be going well this time in, so the $20-30 about him is also appealing.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Satori here! I will also have $15 the win on Yousay Bolt and $10 the win on all three of Like To Think So, Moor Wanted and Deep Euphoria!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 4

1:25pm

Suggested

Odeon (No.1) & Strategic Demand (No.7)

Dangers

Guizot (No.3) & Another Dollar (No.8)

This is a smaller field here over the mile but it is still a very competitive race. There are quite a few winning chances within the small field. Odeon hasn’t made winning a regular habit in recent times but he looks to get the right setup to break through here. All four of his runs this time in have been good, he just hasn’t won. He was excellent here first up behind Widgee Turf over the 1400m before running well in that hot form race – The Golden Mile at Bendigo. He then looked to have the race won at Caulfield third up but probably found the jump from the mile to 2000m a bridge too far that day on the quick back up. He then ran well in the Easter Cup two weeks later over the 2000m but just faded late. I walked away from those two races thinking that he might not be running out the 2000m as strongly these days. That’s why I think the setup of this race looks good for him. He is freshened up with about five weeks between runs into this race having had a recent trial win. He had the blinkers applied in that trial and they stay on here race day. He also finds a race that looks devoid of early speed so I fancy Craig Williams might be able to take advantage of that and roll forward up on speed. If he can do that then he should prove hard to run down. Given quite a few of his rivals are off speed gallopers he might have that positional advantage in running so happy to be with him. I ended up deciding to save on Strategic Demand who might be low level flying. I probably didn’t think I would be tipping the Great Western Cup winner in a Saturday meeting at Flemington but here we are. His first up run here behind Fastnet Tempest was really good. He was going through the line better than Another Dollar who he meets again here and while Another Dollar might potentially have a bit more scope she is half the price of Strategic Demand and for that reason I am happy to side with Strategic Demand. He has also had a trial since that first up run where he went particularly well against a couple of rivals from this race. He has no weight on his back, will do no work from the inside draw and he should run well, so happy to be with him around the $8 mark.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Odeon and save with $25 the win on Strategic Demand!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 5

2:05pm

Suggested

Fabric (No.10) & Shamal Lass (No.17)

Dangers

Vanuatu (No.6) & Neighbourhood (No.13)

Straight back to the big fields here in this race over the 1400m for the three year old fillies. This is another very competitive race. Shamal Lass comes through some strong maidens and comes to town here. I think this is a good filly. She hit the line well on debut at Ararat before she was well backed in a maiden at The Bool over the carnival. She unfortunately ran into a horse called Harbour Views there who proved too strong. We have seen that horse come out and bolt in since and he looks well above average. Shamal Lass went to Donald at her next start and we had the luxury of getting black figures about her. She looked a legitimate $1.50 shot and won accordingly with a fair bit in hand. She strikes me as a really progressive filly that might continue to go through her grades this campaign. She draws out here for Ollie so she will most likely get back off the speed and I given how strong she has been through the line at her last two starts she should be really good late here. There looks like there will be a genuine speed up front and from there she should finish off really well. I am happy to be with her here. Fabric and Neighbourhood come through the same race behind Fidelia last start but it was a real battle over who to go with. Neighbourhood appeared to have every chance there and was cut down late while Fabric had no luck at all back in behind horses. I think Fabric going to a wider draw here and Neighbourhood going to a lower draw probably shifts the balance of power in favour of Fabric. She looks to have come back well. Her first up win was excellent before running well when third behind Fidelia at Sandown. Craig Williams goes back on here from the middle draw and I think if she can build momentum and blend into the race which she hasn’t been able to at her last two runs from inside draws she should be well suited. Happy to side with her here on the home track.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on both Shamal Lass and Fabric here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:25pm

Suggested

Haunted (No.5) & Holbien (No.8)

Dangers

Manolo Blahniq (No.2) & Order Of Command (No.4)

This looks a good sprint race here down the straight. It is over the 1200m and it is another competitive field. I was probably a bit annoyed at myself with my Haunted bet in Adelaide at his most recent start. He was 1200m back to 1100m which didn’t really look the ideal setup but I thought his class would carry him through. He drew an inside gate though and just wasn’t able to build momentum. He ran into the subsequent Goodwood winner in Despatch there and wasn’t beaten far but never really looked like winning the race. His win first up was quite dominant though and I really thought this might be a campaign that he would go through his grades in. He looks to get a really good opportunity to bounce back here. He steps back up to the 1200m down the straight where he has performed well in the past and I like the fact that he draws out and can blend into the race for Craig Williams. I think he is the most progressive horse in the race and this looks winnable for him. I think the $3+ being bet about him is attractive and happy to be with him. I thought the runner at a bit of odds in the race that might run well is Holbien. If you go back through his recent form you can see he has run well here down the straight in a Standish behind Whispering Brook and he has also not been far away in the Group One C.F. Orr. His most recent run he wasn’t beaten far by Fifty Stars in what was a strong form race. He jumped out well recently and his 1200m form is actually really good. He seems to race well early in his campaigns and at double figure odds I think he looks a real dangerous runner here. Happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Haunted here having half now at the $3.30 with SportsBet and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will also have $20 the win on Holbien having half now at the $11 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8

4:05pm

Suggested

Runaway (No.11) & Surprise Baby (No.12)

Dangers

Steel Prince (No.2) & Alfarris (No.3)

This is the feature race of the day here over the 2800m. It is the Andrew Ramsden for the stayers and the winner will earn themselves a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup. While it has drawn a big field I don’t think it is a race that bats overly deep. I am hoping it plays out pretty straight forward. If it does then I think Surprise Baby will be very hard to beat. The Adelaide Cup winner looks a young stayer very much on the rise. He was an outstanding winner of that two mile race in May before turning in a sensational performance here last start at his first run back since that victory. He carried a big weight there and probably should have won. He was back on the inside in traffic and was unable to build any real momentum into the race. He was involved in a scrimmage on the home turn which resulted in a fall but he was able to overcome that and still hit the line strongly. Once he got to the outside and build momentum he really charged through the line. It was an exceptional run. Given how strong he was in winning the Adelaide Cup over the two miles, the 2800m here looks ideal for him. He draws out but that doesn’t particularly bother me over this longer trip. I imagine Dean Holland will try and ride him quietly from that gate and give him time to build into the race. Providing he gets even luck in running I think he is the best horse going forward and he should be just about winning. The stable is flying too which doesn’t hurt. Keen to be with him. Steel Prince is obviously his main danger and has won all four starts this campaign and has built up a pretty imposing career record. He has the services of Ollie and will get every possible chance. Given both a pretty tight in the market though it is impossible to back both so I have sided with Surprise Baby. The horse I want to save on at odds is Runaway. Gai Waterhouse has a pretty good record with horses over this trip at Flemington. She has made winning the St. Leger here at Flemington a regular habit and won it with this horse last year. It has been a bit of an odd preparation for Runaway in the fact he doesn’t come into this race with the miles in the legs, but Gai will no doubt have him primed. He won the Geelong Cup last spring and this race I dare say wouldn’t be as strong as that. His two runs this time in probably haven’t told us too much but I would expect him to improve pretty significantly up to this trip third up here. He has had a trial over the hurdles to sharpen him up for this and will roll forward and give a sight on speed. I thought at the $20 on offer he was the horse potentially over the odds in the race.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Surprise Baby here and $10 the win on Runaway!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 2

12:00pm

Suggested

Irish Songs (No.4), Bombdiggity (No.6) & Vernazza (No.9)

Dangers

Lifesaver (No.3) & Major Danger (No.5)

Racing in Sydney returns to Randwick this Saturday for what is a bit of an oddity in Sydney on a Saturday. It is a meeting with a massive number of runners and big fields. We have often mocked Sydney for their small fields but this meeting is really deep. Like Flemington, it is a deep meeting with plenty of chances. The rail is true and the track is good so the track should race perfectly. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is the Highway over the 1000m. They are going to go quickly here. Matty Dunn again brings two horses down for the Highway. He had two in last week, scratched one and the other went ordinary but it would appear at this stage that both Lifesaver and Vernazza will be making the journey down. I had a slight leaning to the latter who has the run under the belt and might be a little bit more untapped. I have been a fan of Vernazza from day one. I backed her on debut at Doomben back in June last year where she ran into the talented Malahide and was well beaten. She then went to Grafton and got the job done in a handy two year old race over their carnival. She then had a good break before her next run in December at Doomben where she finished down the track behind Outback Barbie. She was immediately spelled post that run and resumed at Murwillumbah two weeks ago. She was heavily backed there into an odds on favourite and despite working outside the leader, was able to get to the wider part in the track late in the day which was the place to be and won comfortably. I think she can go on from that here. She is lightly raced and seemingly with some scope which is the type of horse I like to back in these Highway races. She should land right on speed from gate four and be hard to beat so happy to be with her. Bombdiggity is another lightly raced three year old who makes the journey up from Goulburn here and he looks to have good ability. He won well on debut at Canberra back in October before running third at his second start on his home track and was immediately spelled post that run. He resumed at the Sapphire Coast in March with an easy win under a big weight as a short priced favourite and comes into this race off a two month break following that. He was given a nice quiet time in a recent Goulburn trial where I thought he went well. He gets in with no weight on his back here and around the $8 happy to be with him. The other runner I couldn’t really put my finger on was Irish Songs. He is another three year old that has taken on some handy horses in his career to date. The 1000m may be a bit a sharp for him but this looks a race loaded with early speed. He is drawn gate one and if he can be close enough to them in the run and the leaders overdo it he might be the one closing off strongest late. If the breaks come his way from the inside gate I think he is certainly good enough to win fresh. He was given a very quiet time in his recent trial and it was probably better than the finishing position suggests so happy to keep him on side.

Betting strategy

Deep highway to kick things off on! I will have $40 the win on Vernazza and $20 the win on Bombdiggity and Irish Songs!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

1:10pm

Suggested

Wolfe (No.4)

Dangers

Occupy (No.6) & Master Of Wine (No.11)

This race is over the 2000m and while it is a fair sized field, it looks a pretty skinny race. I think there are only a couple of winning chances and one in particular in Wolfe who looks extremely hard to beat. This looks a very exciting galloper. He has won three of four career starts and looks to have a very bright future in front of him. He is a Japanese bred galloper who won on debut at Kembla back in October when a massive drifter in the betting. The win was full of authority though and he went straight from that to Hawkesbury and an open Benchmark 64 and won impressively again. He then went out for a spell and resumed over the 1400m on ANZAC Day at Randwick where he was just touched off by Something Fast. He was kept up to the mark with a trial four days after that which was an odd training move but it seemed to do the trick as he went to the 1900m second up and was most impressive in winning at Canterbury. He ended up in the box seat (coffin) in that race and a few of his rivals in betting tried to make moves around him to keep him in a pocket. Those runs were short lived though and I loved the way Wolfe come off their back and picked up quickly to win running away. He just looks a really progressive horse that is going to go through his grades pretty quickly. He draws gate five here for Tim Clark and with that 1900m run under his belt last start he looks so well setup here at the 2000m third up. I think with even luck he will just be winning and the black figures might be a bit of a luxury come race day. Master Of Wine is the clear danger and I toyed with the idea of saving on him but really when a horse is as tight in the market is Wolfe is and I am that keen you probably have to bite the bullet and have a crack at him as a stand out bet. On a tough day he looks the best for me.

Betting strategy

I will have $95 the win on Wolfe here and will lock in the $2.05 as I fancy he may start in the red on race day!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 5

1:50pm

Suggested

Quackerjack (No.1) & Nicco Lad (No.10)

Dangers

Kolding (No.5) & Asharani (No.8)

This race is over the 1500m for the three and four year olds and is another intriguing race. There are some handy horses going around in this race. The one I am taking on and most scared of is the favourite Kolding who has returned from a two month freshen up recently in super form. He has won both starts impressively and really chased through the line well in both wins. The concerning thing for me in this race is that he does draw gate one and I just feel he might end up in an awkward spot in the run and needing some luck. This is also a harder race and a horse like Quackerjack comes out of a strong Hawkesbury Guineas last start and will also be up on speed and rolling in clear air in front of Kolding in the run. For that reason I am happy to be with Quackerjack who appears to have come back well this time in. He resumed with a dominant win on the Kensington track before running well last start when second up in that Hawkesbury Guineas. He was clearly the best of the on pacers in that race. Third up to the 1500m here I think he looks really well placed. He has Josh Parr on board who is a renowned positive rider. He will send Quackerjack forward and he will be up on the speed rolling all of the way. I just think with that positional advantage in running he might be able to pick a bit of a break on some of his main rivals in the betting and get them off the bit and chasing. If that is the case he will be hard to run down, so keen to be in his corner. I am going to save on Nicco Lad who is a horse that will be back off them and hoping to run on. He has had three runs this time in and ran well at all of them without probably having the best of luck. He has drawn low gates in the majority of those and I just feel he might be a horse that is better suited with a bit more galloping room. I feel he hasn’t been able to really build full momentum when he has needed to in those runs. From the wider draw here he will be back off the speed but hopefully peeling into clear air and building at the right time. He should certainly be primed here at his fourth run back from a spell and I think he will also appreciate getting on to this big Randwick track. I just think this isn’t a bad setup for him and around the $8-9 mark he looked worthy of a bet.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Quackerjack here having half now at the $4.80 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $20 the win on Nicco Lad!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 7

3:10pm

Suggested

Noire (No.1), Renewal (No.11) & Organza (No.13)

Dangers

Special Missile (No.4) & Mahalangur (No.10)

This race looks fairly wide open with quite a few winning chances. I just think that Renewal is a horse that has always promised a fair bit and he might be on the cusp of starting to deliver on that promise. All his runs this time in have been strong. He resumed with a good win here before going to down to Melbourne and taking on some handy races where he ran well three times without winning. I was pretty confident about his chances last start when returning back to Sydney and he didn’t let me down. He sat handy to the speed and proved far too strong for Star Of The Seas who we saw come out and win impressively last Saturday. That form all looks pretty strong. He is fit and in form, stays down in the weights here and if Jean Van Overmeire can get him into a good spot from a potentially awkward wider draw then I anticipate him being hard to hold out again. Keen to be with him. I am keeping Organza on side here who resumed with an excellent Scone two weeks ago. She landed just off the speed there and looked the winner down the straight but was just touched off in a blanket finish. She is a very consistent mare that is building a strong overall record. The positive here is that she typically improves sharply off her first up run into her second up run as a rule and given she went so well first up if she was to replicate that pattern here then she is going to be very hard to hold out. Her 1400m record is excellent and while she also draws a touch wide and awkwardly, if Rachel King can get her into a good trailing position in the run I would expect her to be right in the finish so happy to be with her. The horse that I am going to keep on side in the race is Noire. This is a mare I have a fair bit of time for. She ran some cracking races through the spring against some of our best horses but didn’t seem to really go on with that this campaign. Her runs this autumn campaign have just been fair and lacking that bit of spark. She has been given a good freshen up since her most recent run about eight weeks back and I thought her recent trial may have been an indication that she is back on track. She was given a very soft time behind Desert Lord but looked to go through the line quite strongly. She draws gate one which may not be ideal here, but this is the easiest race she has contested for some time. If the breaks come her way and she can run anywhere near her best then she will give this a shake. She has come up double figure odds too which looks pretty big in a race of this nature so for mine at that price she is certainly well worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I am going to have $50 the win on Renewal here and save with $20 the win on Organza and Noire!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

3:50pm

Suggested

Deprive (No.15)

Dangers

Cradle Mountain (No.4) & Heart Conquered (No.12)

This race is over the 1100m for the sprinters and looks to be one of the more interesting races of the day. The return of two very promising sprinters in Cradle Mountain and Deprive certainly bring a fair bit of spice to this race. Both have trialled well and both should come here pretty wound up. It looks to be a race with a fair bit of pressure early and for that reason I do lean to Deprive. I was happy to bet around him last Saturday before he was a late scratching at the barriers. I think that would have been the right decision had he run as I don’t think he would have beat Desert Lord. I think this race sets up nicely for him. I like him on the bigger Randwick track drawn out. I had a few concerns last Saturday where he was going to get to in the run around Rosehill from a low draw. I think on the big Randwick track here he can land back off the speed midfield, off the fence with a bit of cover and that should have him peeling into the clear at the right time ready to make his run. His form last time in was very good in strong form races and he has always been a horse that has had a bit of a boom on him. This isn’t an easy race but I think he might get the race run to suit up front so he can get over the top of them. To my eye he trialled like a horse that would be looking for 1200-1400m this time in so he will need to be pretty fresh here over the 1100m. With the strong speed up front though I can see him getting over the top of them late and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Deprive here!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 3

12:20pm

Suggested

Grinzinger Star (No.1) & Lord Arthur (No.8)

Dangers

Vow And Declare (No.4) & Bobby Dee (No.9)

Group One racing again comes from Brisbane this Saturday with the running of the Kingsford Smith Cup over the 1300m which is a relatively new race on the calendar. I think this might be the equivalent of the old Doomben 10,000 without diving too deeply into it. The weather in Queensland is OK, it isn’t great but it doesn’t look as if it will be too wet and I think we will get away with racing on a good track. There is a bit more intrigue in this meeting with a few horses coming off Doomben runs where they perhaps weren’t overly well suited and are now getting on to the big Eagle Farm track where we might see a few horses improve sharply. I am kicking off in the third race which is for the three year olds over the 2200m. This is one of the lead ups to the Derby and we have a heap of different form lines coming together. There are horses coming from New Zealand, Sydney and Melbourne arriving to take on the locals. The New Zealand form interests me and Lord Arthur in particular looks a horse with some genuine staying talent. His win last start at Ellerslie was quite simply put, barnstorming. He sat back off the speed and rounded his rivals up from the back with a sharp turn of foot. He was a bit all over the place in the straight but the manner of the win was really impressive. I haven’t seen too many average horses win the way he did. I love the way when asked for an effort he really turned on the jets to run past his rivals. The start prior to that he was competitive with The Chosen One who we saw win really impressively at Randwick over the carnival in Sydney so I would be very surprised if he didn’t measure up here. The big Eagle Farm track looks like it will suit him ideally and the engagement of James McDonald from gate four can only be a positive one would think. He looks a good ‘orse in my eyes and keen to be with him here as I don’t think he meets any world beaters. I am going to save on Grinzinger Star who makes the journey north for the Danny O’Brien yard. I have to admit I did have a bit of a dilemma over which Danny O’Brien horse to back with him and Vow And Declare engaged. I just thought that Grinzinger Star with a few more runs under his belt would be a bit more seasoned to run out the 2200m than the stable mate who is only third up from a spell and rising in trip. Grinzinger Star’s form this time in has been excellent. He ran well first up at Caulfield when just touched off against the older horses before he rolled Mr Quickie second up which is very good form. He then stepped up to the 2000m at Caulfield back against the older horses and won easily before not having the best of luck at Flemington last start when involved in a scrimmage on the home corner which seemed to affect the way he finished off the race. I am happy to forgive that and will back him in to rebound here. I fancy Corey Brown might ride him a bit quieter from that wider draw and let him come with a good long run at them. He ran well in the Derby in Victoria last year so the trip is no issue and I would expect him to be hard to beat here so happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Formality here and save with $10 the win on Seannie just in case!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 4

12:55pm

Suggested

Quilista (No.4)

Dangers

Sexy Eyes (No.6) & Savatiano (No.8)

This race is over the 1300m for the fillies and mares and it looks another really good opportunity for Quilista to get another win on the board. Gee, that race last Saturday at Doomben looked well set up for her and she delivered accordingly. She jumped on the bunny controlled the tempo and sprinter away from her rivals to win easily. Her two runs prior to that were also good and her three runs in total now for the Snowden yard have been excellent. She looks a mare in the zone and I think they are worth sticking with. This is going to be tougher than last week in my opinion. She goes to 1300m and she also has to negotiate Eagle Farm which isn’t a big deal but we know Doomben can be heaven for those on speed when they can control the race like she did last week. The good thing about this race on Saturday is that she again looks to get complete control of the race early. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed and I would expect McEvoy to jump her on the bunny, get control and again be very hard to run down. The camp mentioned during the week that Quilista is relaxing a lot better in her races and that is allowing her to finish off her races with a lot more gusto and reel off quick final sectionals. If she is doing that from the front it is going to take an exceptional effort for a horse to come from the back and run her down. Given that is the likely setup here in this race on Saturday it is very hard to see her being beat so keen to be in her corner again.

Betting strategy

I will have $110 the win on Quilista here and will lock in the $2.30 with TAB Fixed Odds QLD as I think she could start in the red!

Race Outlay

$110

Race 8 - Kingsford-Smith Cup

3:35pm

Suggested

The Bostonian (No.2), Victorem (No.3), Prompt Response (No.10) & Ringerdingding (No.14)

Dangers

Chapter And Verse (No.4), I Am Excited (No.12) & Irithea (No.15)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Group One Kingsford-Smith Cup over the 1300m. While it isn’t a vintage Group One field it certainly is a deep race with plenty of winning chances. It is an intriguing betting race that is for sure. I have to admit I was pretty happy when after doing the form I looked at the odds and saw Victorem had come up double figure odds. I just think this race represents a great opportunity to get a big race win under his belt. He has always been a horse that has shown great talent in lesser grade and always gave the feel he would eventually graduate to this level. Well today is graduation day. His first up run at Scone behind Viridine was excellent. They put a space on the rest of the field and had Victorem got to the outside and been able to build momentum a fraction earlier I dare say he may have turned the tables on Viridine. Regardless it was an excellent return and providing he has gone on from that then he is going to be very hard to beat here. He draws ideally in gate five to get a gun run just off the speed for Ben Looker and his second up record is outstanding. I think if he can hold a position and make use of that good draw then he can be very hard to hold out. I think at around that $10 mark he is an outstanding bet and keen to be with him. I am pretty keen to back up on The Bostonian after he saluted for us at a monster price in the Doomben 10,000 two weeks ago. He might be a horse that just loves Queensland. His record in this state is phenomenal and his win in the 10,000 two weeks ago was excellent. He was held up for a fair period in the straight but was able to take the run, burst through and win. His record in Queensland is four wins from as many starts and I think he is a great chance again of making it five on Saturday. He will put himself right in the firing line on speed and his record at this trip is also excellent. Happy to be with him again. Prompt Response is certainly the horse that went up the wrong price in early markets. I read on Twitter she went up huge odds and had been wound in constantly since then. This is a good mare who looks well placed in this race. She has form around genuine Group One gallopers and this is a race that probably lacks that genuine top class so I think she is well placed and in with a great chance. The first two runs of her campaign she chased home Trapeze Artist and Shoals in the Canterbury Stakes and then chased home Winx and Brutal in the George Ryder. That was fair form and then she looked the winner 200m out in the Queen Of The Turf at Randwick but probably just didn’t run out the 1600m too strongly as she was swamped late. I like her here freshened up and back to the 1300m. She has had a quiet trial in the meantime to keep her up to the mark and drawn well for Robbie Fradd to land on speed I think she will be in the firing line for a long way. Happy to be with her. The other horse I am going to have something on is Ringerdingding. He is just a bit of the x-factor horse in the race in my opinion. He had a bit of an interrupted autumn campaign before winning last start impressively in the Carbine Club on Derby Day in Sydney. He has been kept fresh since that win and that looks a good recipe here over the 1300m. He has had a nice trial recently to keep him up to the mark. He draws a nice gate to get a smothering run off the speed for James McDonald and if the race is run to suit those who will be strong late then he will be coming quickly. Happy to have him on side in a wide open race. The chances don’t end there though. It is a deep race. Chapter And Verse will appreciate getting back to Eagle Farm while Dollar For DollarTrekkingHome Of The BraveI Am Excited and Irithea all wouldn’t surprise. Then there is the real big x-factor of a two year old in Dubious having a run against the older horses with just 48kgs on his back. He would surprise me I have to admit but I like the wildcard factor he brings to the race. I am looking forward to this race. Keen on Victorem and certainly don’t want to be losing on the race if either of The BostonianPrompt Response or Ringerdingding can salute.

Betting strategy

There is some $10-11 floating around about Victorem and happy to lock that in and have $25 the win on him! I will save with $20 the win on The Bostonian and $15 the win on Prompt Response and Ringerdingding!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:10pm

Suggested

Military Zone (No.2), Seabrook (No.12) & Pohutukawa (No.14)

Dangers

Zoutori (No.4) & Vega One (No.6)

This is a good race to finish the day on for the three year olds. It is a big field with plenty of different form lines coming together. I bit the bullet with Military Zone at Scone last start and backed him on the basis that he was the best horse in the race despite knowing that the race may not pan out for him. Unfortunately for me it turned out that the race shape proved too powerful with his main rival and danger in the race Wild Planet getting a picnic in front and sprinting away to win well. Military Zone reeled off some super sectionals but needed to be something amazing to win given how the race was won. I was banking on Wild Planet not leading but landing in the coffin and in that scenario the result may have been different. I think he can make amends here. He draws gate three for James McDonald so from that gate I am hopeful he won’t have to get too far back and can hold a position much closer to the speed. If he can do that and be within striking distance and the breaks come his way in the straight he is going to be hard to hold out. His win the start prior to that in the Hawkesbury Guineas against a strong line up was really good. I think he is in the zone now pardon the pun and the big Eagle Farm track and 1400m looks ideal for him. If the breaks come his way he is clearly the one to beat in my opinion and happy to be with him. I am going to save on a couple of the fillies in the race who come into this race off a freshen up following a Sydney autumn campaign where they took on some of the better fillies in the country. The first of those is Pohutukawa who comes into this race off a freshen up after failing over the 2000m in the Vinery last start behind Verry Elleegant. Prior to that she had run two cracking races to kick off her campaign behind Nakeeta Jane before winning the Kembla Grange classic very easily. She has had a nice trial to keep her up to the mark since that Vinery run and is another that should appreciate the wide open spaces of Eagle Farm. She draws an ideal middle gate to get a good run off the speed for Corey Brown and should any rain arrive, that would be a bonus for her so happy to save on her. I also want to have something on Seabrook. I am not sure there should be too big a gap between these two in the market. I would say this is certainly the easiest race Seabrook has contested this campaign with three of her four runs in Sydney being at Group One level. The only other one at Group Two level she beat all bar Verry Elleegant. She draws ideally in gate one to lob just in behind the speed and I think at double figure odds she is capable of running well here so keen to keep her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $45 the win on Military Zone here and save with $20 the win on Pohutukawa and $15 the win on Seabrook happy to take the $12 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

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