It's the 2019 Golden Slipper weekend with plenty of action across four race meetings. Kicked off Friday night with the William Reid Stakes meeting from Moonee Valley. Undoubtedly Golden Slipper Day is one of the most exciting race days of the year with five Group One races. The Golden Slipper this year was shaped up as one of the most interesting and intriguing race days. Including a couple of horses called Winx and The Autumn Sun going around on the program. A big program of racing including previews for Ranvet Stakes & The Galaxy.

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Race 1

6:30pm

Suggested

Marcel From Madrid (No.1) & Anjana (No.8)

Dangers

Yulong January (No.3)

This is a big weekend of racing and it all kicks off Friday night punters with the William Reid Stakes meeting from Moonee Valley. The main race itself looks a little bit light on this year particularly with the scratching of Shoals. It leaves Sunlight as a pretty short odds on favourite and for that reason I haven’t included the race into the betting preview. I think she probably wins, but not too interested in getting involved at the $1.70-80 on offer. I have found four races to bet into on the night where the rail is true and the track is good and I would expect the track to race well. I am kicking off in the first race which is for the three year olds over the 1200m. It is a small filed but a pretty interesting race all the same. The race won by Anjana at Flemington two weeks ago on Super Saturday certainly looks to be the key form reference. I was keen on Sunset Watch in that race and Anjana was able to sit off the pace and gun that gelding down before drawing on for an impressive victory. It is hard to see the tables being turned here on Friday night. There looks to be some good speed towards the inside with Yulong January and Khulaasa and Sunset Watch and Fine Dane will be coming across from the two outside gates. I think from gate four Ollie can just take a nice trailing sit in behind those leaders on Anjana and be poised to pounce to have the last crack at them. I love the way this filly really pulled clear of her rivals at Flemington last start and she has clearly come back well for Mick Price. She has raced well here at Moonee Valley in the past and providing she hasn’t gone backwards from that first up run I would think that she can be winning here again. Keen to be with her. Marcel From Madrid comes through that same race at Flemington and his run was a little bit hard to get a read on. He just never seemed to get a clear crack at them and may have went to the line with a little bit left in hand. He was very firm in the market that day off a good trial and I think out of that race if there is a horse that might be capable of turning the tables on Anjana then he is the one. Around that $8 mark I am happy to save on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Anjana here and save with $25 the win on Marcel From Madrid!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

8:00pm

Suggested

Ryan’s Fender (No.4) & Delightful Celyna (No.9)

Dangers

Snipes (No.3) & La Belle Jude (No.10)

This race is over the 2040m for the stayers. There are a few well exposed and tried and true commodities in this race and for that reason the lightly raced four year old in Ryan’s Fender certainly appeals as the horse very much on an upward spiral in this race. He has had a bit of a stop start career to date and hasn’t got too deep into too many campaigns. He has returned as a gelding this time in though and I think we are yet to see the best of him. He had two runs just before the end of the last calendar year where he ran well without winning in two pretty handy races. He then resumed off a two month freshen up at Warrnambool in mid February over the 1700m and got the job done in workmanlike fashion. He was sent around a pretty well supported $1.60 favourite that day. He sat outside the leader and looked to potentially be under a bit of pressure coming to the home turn when the second horse circled the field and got up outside of him and was seemingly travelling the better. He hadn’t really asked for Ryan’s Fender though and once he got balanced into the straight he really knuckled down and pulled clear of his rival and won easily. They gapped the third horse too which is a good sign. He hasn’t been seen since but has had a recent Camperdown jump out to keep him up to the mark. He was given a pretty solid hit out there over the 1000m where he hit the line nicely. I just think this looks the ideal race for him. Like I said, he is the horse on the up meeting a fair few rivals that look to have found their level. He just has to get around Moonee Valley which is a slight concern as he is a big striding horse but providing he can negotiate that obstacle I think he will be winning. Keen to be with him. I am going to save on Delightful Celyna who is a mare racing well this time in. She strung three wins together before taking on some better races at her last two starts and running well. She wasn’t beaten far by Jungle Fish two starts back at Pakenham before she arguably should have won at Sandown last start behind La Belle Jude. She just looks to be racing really well, she gets the services of Craig Williams and around the double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Ryan's Fender here and save with $15 the win on Delightful Celyna!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 5

8:30pm

Suggested

Superhard (No.5) & Oberland (No.6)

Dangers

Desert Lashes (No.3) & Belwazi (No.4)

This is a competitive 955m sprint at The Valley. With the rail in the true position I am hoping that gives the backmarkers an opportunity to run on and if that is the case I see no reason why Superhard won’t prove very hard to beat again. I think we can safely say that this is a pretty handy racehorse. I was on him first up at Flemington and was pretty surprised to see him get to double figure odds. He certainly didn’t run like a horse that should have been double figure odds. He sat back off the speed but you could see a fair way from home that he was going to take a power of beating and he rounded his rivals up very quickly before drawing on for the easiest of wins. He was actually eased down on the line. This is certainly a different type of race around Moonee Valley but I think the fact it is a relatively small field should play into his hands and if he is within striking distance of the leaders coming to the turn he is going to be very strong late and hard to hold out. A couple of the speed runners in the race are drawn out too so I am just hoping they might have to do a bit of work early and that will set it up for a horse like Superhard to come over the top of them late. After being with him first up I almost feel obliged to be with him again. I am also going to have something small on the ex-Weir galloper in Oberland. This galloper has turned in a couple of sparkling jump outs recently at Terang and Camperdown to have him ready for this first up assignment for Mitch Freedman. He looks to have come back really well. He draws gate five to get a smothering run in behind them off the speed and a bit like Superhard, if he is close enough in the run and getting clear air in the straight he is going to be finishing very strongly so happy to keep him on side at double figure odds off the strength of those two good jump outs.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Superhard and save with $15 the win on Oberland here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 6

9:00pm

Suggested

Mirette (No.6), Etana (No.8), Arctic Shock (No.11) & Princess Jenni (No.13)

Dangers

Angelic Ruler (No.3) & Victory Kingdom (No.5)

This is one of the feature races of the night. It is over the mile for the three year old fillies and it has drawn together a very competitive line up. The main form reference certainly looks to be the race won by Spanish Whisper at Flemington two weeks ago and Victory Kingdom and Angelic Ruler who ran second and third in that race have come up pretty short in the market here. I found it a pretty tough race though and found myself not overly enthused to get involved with either of those two at the prices on offer. I am playing this race a little bit wide and hoping we can get something at odds to salute. Mirette comes through a completely different form line to most here having had two runs at Warrnambool and Echuca to kick off her campaign. She has won both of those races in very easy fashion and she is a filly that I have a lot of time for. Her run in the 1000 Guineas in the spring behind Amphitrite was outstanding. She was only second up off a freshen up into that race after breaking her maiden at Benalla the start prior. She was three wide and working for the whole race and was beaten just over two lengths. It was an excellent run in what has proved to be a pretty strong race. I think she was then at the end of her campaign when failing pretty miserably on Melbourne Cup Day as a well backed favourite behind Pohutukawa. Her two wins this time in have been good in particular her second up performance at Echuca. She got the job done first up at Warrnambool but last start at Echuca was an arrogant and dominant victory. She steps back up in class here and I am hoping she can really make a statement. She is going to need luck from the wide draw but Jordan Childs is riding well and I just like the fact she comes through a bit of a different form line so around the $7-8 I am happy to be with her. Arctic Shock is the other horse that I want to have something on who comes through a different form reference. This filly got to the 1600m last start at Pakenham for the first time and lapped it up. She was well backed at her fourth career start and got the job done impressively winning eased down by a tidy margin. They ran good time for the night and I wouldn’t be surprised if she could make a successful leap up in class here. She draws to get a good run just off the speed for Ben Melham and around the $20-30 mark I thought she was worth a ticket here. From the Spanish Whisper race the two horses I am backing are Etana and Princess Jenni. That was a bit of a funny day at Flemington, not too many horses were coming wide and making ground which made the run of Etana full of merit in my opinion. She was three and four wide and working for the entire race and stuck on strongly to only be beaten just over two lengths. I think with a more economical run in transit here up to the mile she can run a really good race. She draws well for Meech to push forward and be on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to be with her. Princess Jenni was first up in a pretty hot 1400m race there. She was also asked to come wide in the straight and I thought she got through the line quite nicely after I was initially a little disappointed with the run. Looking over the pattern of the day though and watching her go through the line I think it was a pass mark. She again will have to go back from the wide draw here but I am convinced she is a filly with real talent who will take benefit from that first up run. Ollie stays with her and she is another at double figure odds that I am happy to have something on here.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Mirette here! I will also have $20 the win on Etana, $15 the win on Princess Jenni and $10 the win on Arctic Shock!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:50pm

Suggested

Star Fall (No.3) & Miss Toorak Flyer (No.8)

Dangers

Miss Leonidas (No.7) & Josephine Sea (No.11)

Racing on Saturday amazingly on Golden Slipper Day in Sydney comes from Mornington as the main meeting in Victoria. I won’t bore anyone with my ranting but the fact that in Victoria we don’t race at a major city track on Golden Slipper Day is a bit mystifying. I was at Caulfield the year Pierro won the Golden Slipper and the atmosphere on course that day was amazing with people tuned into the big screen to watch the Sydney races while enjoying a good program at Caulfield. This is a pretty good program at Mornington, but punters want to be betting at major city tracks on big days so I think it is a missed opportunity. Every year I say I won’t bother betting at this meeting as like most punters I am not a big fan of Mornington as far as a punting venue goes but as per usual I have had a look at the fields and got pretty easily sucked in. I have found five races to bet into and here is hoping we can have a successful day down on the peninsula. I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m. The market has really narrowed this down to three main chances in Star Fall, Miss Leonidas and Miss Toorak Flyer. I would be somewhat surprised if the winner didn’t come from that trio. I must say I was a little bit surprised that Star Fall didn’t come up a more pronounced favourite and as such I think that is where a bit of an opportunity lies here. He is clearly a pretty handy racehorse. He strung together three pretty dominant wins over the summer months before a last start failure at Randwick behind the talented Sylvia’s Mother. He has been given a nice freshen up since then and back to the 1000m here I think he will be hard to hold out. Certainly that win in fast time at Caulfield two starts back on Boxing Day over Mystyko reads very well for a race of this nature. He draws a nice middle gate for Liam Riordan and looking at the speed drawn inside of him I think he pretty easily lands outside the leader or in front without working too hard to happy to be with him. I am saving on Miss Toorak Flyer who somehow has managed to get beat at her last two starts. She was very unlucky to not win at Moonee Valley two starts back where she went via Pascoe Vale Road on the home corner. She then looked to have the race all parcelled up at Flemington last start only to be run down by Swift Sis late on. We have seen that filly come out and win again last Saturday. From gate four here Miss Toorak Flyer looks to get the gun trail in behind the speed and for mine should just need a touch of luck to be right in the finish.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $3.20 for Star Fall with SportsBet might be good value come the time they jump! I will have $65 the win on him at that price and save with $30 the win on Miss Toorak Flyer!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:25pm

Suggested

Call It A Day (No.3) & Island Daze (No.4)

Dangers

Enigman (No.1) & Lauchetti (No.10)

This race is over the 1200m and I thought it looked to be a pretty skinny race on paper. Island Daze has come back from a spell in good order this time in and looks to find a very winnable race here. She won her first two runs back from a spell at Sandown and Moonee Valley in strong fashion before running in that Swift Sis/Miss Toorak Flyer race last start at Flemington. She led the field up there to the final stages in what was a good run. While she takes on the males here it looks an easier assignment than last start in my opinion. It is a race with a few well exposed tried and true commodities and she is a lightly raced four year old mare that we probably haven’t seen the best of yet. She has an excellent 1200m record and Jordan Childs just needs to negate that outside barrier and if he does that I think she is clearly the horse to beat so keen to be in her corner. Her main opposition looks as if it will come from Call It A Day. This locally trained galloper has a really good record around his home circuit and resumed with a strong effort at Cranbourne two weeks ago over the 1000m. He carried 62kgs there and snuck through along the rail and chased home Seven Year Reward who is a pretty handy sprinter on his day. The third horse in Sweet Snitty came out and won well at Pakenham on Thursday night so the form looks good. Call It A Day is certainly not a 1000m horse so the fact that he got so close there over that trip first up suggests he has come back well. Second up over the 1200m suits and he really does look the main danger to Island Daze here. Looking at the race I would be pretty surprised if one of the two weren’t winning and I think it looks a good two bet play.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Island Daze here and save with $30 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Miss Belisa (No.2), Tahitian Dancer (No.4) & Kootara (No.7)

Dangers

Private Lounge (No.1) & Music Bay (No.3)

This looks to be a race that has a little bit more depth. It is over the 1200m for the fillies and mares and it looks a pretty hot little race. Music Bay has come up favourite again after being rolled at a prohibitive price at Sandown first up. She is certainly an excellent chance here and will be suited by the step up to the 1200m but I am just going around her here. I have been really taken with the trials of Tahitian Dancer leading into this first up assignment and I think first up on her home track she might come ready to rumble on Saturday. Certainly her form last spring around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read very well for a race of this nature. She looks as if she has come back really well too if her trials are anything to go by. Her first trial was nice alongside Assertive Play and the most recent won was just utterly dominant. She won by two lengths sailing down the middle of the track untouched and with plenty in hand. I think she will be hard to beat here. I like the fact she has had the two trials to prepare her for the first up 1200m run. She draws gate two to get a lovely run just in behind the speed and I think if the breaks come her way she is going to be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her to roll the other favourite in Music Bay. Kootara is another local that is fit and racing well this time in. I had something on her first up at Sandown Hillside where she ran well after being wide early. She then really went on from that run to land some good bets in winning impressively at Pakenham second up. She just looks a filly that has come back really well this time in. She draws a middle gate for Michael Poy to get a good run off the speed and she gets in with just 54kgs after his claim. With the couple of runs under her belt I think she might be able to test some of these better credentialed runners who are early in their campaigns. She went through the line really nicely too at her first 1200m attempt last start so happy to be with her at double figure odds. Miss Belisa is a throw at the stumps bet for something small. She jumped out really nicely at Cranbourne recently and has performed well on the fresh side in the past. She draws a nice middle gate to get a good run on speed and around the $20 mark I thought she was worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen Tahitian Dancer here and will have $55 the win on her! I will save with $20 the win on Kootara and $10 the win on Miss Belisa!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

4:10pm

Suggested

Trap For Fools (No.1) & Stars Of Carrum (No.5)

Dangers

High Bridge (No.8) & Hang Man (No.10)

This is the feature race of the day. It is the Mornington Cup over the mile and a half. It doesn’t look an overly strong edition this year and for that fact it was pretty hard to steer away from the class at the top of the weights in Trap For Fools. I really like this horse. He just gives his all wherever he runs. He gets out in front and rolls along in front and asks questions of his rivals. His form this time in has been excellent. I was really taken with how we went through the line first up at Caulfield over the mile behind Avilius and that run has made me stick with him at his last two. He beat all bar Avilius second up before running a brave third in the Australian Cup two weeks ago. Surprisingly looking at his stats he has never won over the mile and a half but the way he is racing currently gives me every indication that he is actually looking for that longer trip. For mine he is clearly the best horse in the race, there doesn’t look like there is a lot of speed engaged that is going to oppose him for that early lead and if he can roll along to the beat of his own drum out in front he is surely going to be very hard to get past. It looks a very winnable race for him given the class of horses he has been racing against not only this campaign but back in the spring and I am happy to be in his corner. I think Stars Of Carrum could be his fly in the ointment. The three year old is racing well this time in and there is no doubt at all that he is looking for this mile and a half trip. He had three good runs to kick off his campaign at a mile or less before going to the Valley last Friday night over the 2040m and running an excellent race behind Global Exchange in the Alistair Clark. He was either going to the Rosehill Guineas today to take on The Autumn Sun or this race and I personally reckon that this is a wise move. He gets in with 54kgs for Craig Newitt, his run in the Derby in the spring shows he will lap up the trip and I think he can run a big race here so happy to save on him behind the favourite Trap For Fools.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Trap For Fools here and save with $25 the win on Stars Of Carrum!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8

4:50pm

Suggested

Fastnet Tempest (No.4), Streets Of Avalon (No.9), Manolo Blahniq (No.10) & Milwaukee (No.14)

Dangers

Bons Away (No.3), Glenall (No.8) & Bel Sonic (No.17)

This is the feature sprint race of the day. It is the Hareeba Stakes over the 1200m. It has drawn together a big competitive field. It is wide open with plenty of chances. Manolo Blahniq comes into this race off a freshen up on his home track and has plenty to like about him for mine here. He raced really well through the summer months. He kicked the campaign off with an excellent run at Pakenham over an unsuitable 1000m before beating all bar Native Soldier at Caulfield on Boxing Day. He then went to Flemington and despite racing wide proved far too good in the Chester Manifold before having no luck at all at Caulfield at his most recent run. He has had a freshen up since then and this race just looks to set up nicely for him. He stays down in the weights with just 54kgs but with plenty of speed on up front he should get a lovely run back off the speed from a middle to wide gate and I can see him being really strong late and having the last crack at them. I reckon this might have been a bit of a target race for him on his home track so keen to be in his corner. I am keeping another local on side in Streets Of Avalon who is just races so well this campaign. He is pretty easy to like. He gets up on speed, makes his own luck and often proves pretty hard to get past. His effort last Saturday at Flemington to only be beaten by Widgee Turf and Hellova Street was excellent after sitting outside the leader the whole way. Providing he hasn’t taken too much ill effect from that run and can back up here dropping back to the 1200m he is going to be hard to beat again. He will roll forward from a middle gate and with those recent 1400m runs under his belt he will certainly prove pretty hard to get past so happy to be with him. I am also going to keep a couple of resuming runners on side. The first of those is Fastnet Tempest. He is a bit of an enigma this horse but a pretty talented one on his day. His recent jump out at Flemington without the blinkers on was quite sharp. He got through the line very nicely showing a nice turn of foot late. He gets the blinkers on for race day here and I think he might run a mighty race fresh. He draws a nice middle gate to get that good smothering run off the speed and with the likelihood of strong speed up front he might be the one that is coming out of the pack having the last shot at them. Around the $20-25 mark I think he is well worth a ticket. The other horse I am going to have something on is Milwaukee. This horse always runs a good race fresh. He gets down in the weights here from a good draw, has jumped out well enough and the Mike Moroney stable is going really well in recent weeks. His 1200m record is excellent and I think he will be up on speed getting the right run just behind the leaders and in the finish with a touch of luck so happy to be with him around the $15-20 mark also.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Manolo Blahniq here! I will also have $20 the win on Streets Of Avalon, $15 the win on Fastnet Tempest and $10 the win on Milwaukee!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Resin (No.2), Serene Miss (No.6) & Into The Abyss (No.12)

Dangers

She Knows (No.1) & Avantage (No.3)

A salivating day of racing. I can’t wait. As per usual for Golden Slipper Day in Sydney, it has been raining. The track is currently in the heavy range but the forecast does look a little more promising as I write this on Friday morning for Friday and Saturday so I would anticipate that we would get into the soft range come race day. The rail is out three metres which is a rail position that can lend itself to play a bit towards the inside. Certainly over the last couple of years the rail hasn’t been a bad spot to be on Golden Slipper Day but it will require close watching early in the day. Speaking of early in the day, I am kicking off in the first race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a good competitive race. Resin has shown a liking for soft conditions in her career so far and her first up run at Randwick last start when just touched off by Winter Bride and Spright suggests she has come back in good order this time around. She had the nice drop on the leaders there in that race but they went very hard and compounded early in the straight which left her in front a fair way from home. Given she was first up I think that just left her a little vulnerable for the other two mares to run her down. Providing she has gone on from that first up run and I see no reason why she wouldn’t have, then this looks a good race for her second up. She draws wide, so J-Mac’s tactics early will be interesting but I think if he gets them right she is probably the horse they all have to beat so happy to be with her. Serene Miss comes into this race second up after chasing home Renewal first up and I actually thought the run was quite good. She carried a big weight there and got a long way back out of her ground but got through the line nicely late after having to switch across heels at the top of the straight to get to the outside. Her last 100m was most impressive to my eye working through the line strongly. She draws nicely in gate three here to take up a more prominent position in running. She has an excellent soft track record, is unbeaten second up and gets nice weight relief here. I think there is a fair bit to like about her and happy to keep her on side at double figure odds. Into The Abyss is another horse I want to back in the race. This filly raced well without a lot of luck in the spring in Melbourne. Certainly that form around the likes of Sunlight and Pohutukawa reads pretty well for a race of this nature though. She has ran well on soft ground too which is important. Of most importance though is probably the fact that she trialled really nicely recently at Randwick. She sat back last but really finished the race off strongly late. She draws well in gate five here to get a gun run just off the speed and I think she is going to come to the races ready to rumble first up on Saturday and for that fact I am keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Resin here and save with $20 the win on Into The Abyss and $15 the win on Serene Miss!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 3

1:45pm

Suggested

Big Blue (No.6), Midterm (No.9) & Shraaoh (No.10)

Dangers

Big Duke (No.1) & Vin De Dance (No.4)

This was a race that I was originally not overly keen to bet into but on closer inspection found that two horses really did stand out to me. Shraaoh certainly looks to have his hoof on the till here at his third run back from a spell. This galloper made a really good impression when winning the 2800m race at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day at his Australian debut and was immediately spelled post that run. He didn’t do a lot first up when down the track behind Seaway but improved sharply last start when getting up in distance to the 2000m. He hit the line strongly but just failed to run down Hiyaam who led all the way. That run should have brought him on nicely for this third up assignment over the mile and a half. While his soft track form doesn’t read well, the fact he was so dominant in the heavy winning on Melbourne Cup Day eases that worry. He stays down in the weights from gate one for Kerrin McEvoy who is a master jockey in these staying races and I think he is the one they all have to beat. Keen to be with him. Midterm from the Lloyd Williams yard is the interesting runner here coming up from Melbourne. I am a bit of the opinion that the Melbourne staying form is superior to the Sydney staying form and if that comes to fruition here than Midterm is going to be very hard to hold out. I think Lloyd might have found a good race for this galloper here. He was well backed at Caulfield first up when finding the line nicely behind Sikandarabad and his form last campaign was also good through the spring. He has shown a liking for soft ground in his career which is probably why the stable has elected to come here over Mornington. He gets the blinkers on for the first time for Jamie Kah and he just shapes as being very hard to beat in my opinion. I think the $6-7 on offer about him is an excellent price. Happy to be with him. I am also going to have something small on my old favourite Big Blue. I reckon I might see him down at Warrnambool in five and a half weeks time but while the tracks are wet here up in Sydney he can still run a race on the flat. We saw him win at Randwick at big odds two starts back and he comes into this race first up with a hurdle trial under his belt. He will get up on speed and roll along at his own leisure and who knows might take some running down. At big odds I have to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Shraaoh here! I am going for a good result with Midterm and having $30 the win on him locking in the $6.50 available! I will also have $10 the win on Big Blue!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 6 - Ranvet Stakes

3:45pm

Suggested

Sikandarabad (No.8), Danzdanzdance (No.10) & Unforgotten (No.12)

Dangers

Avilius (No.2) & He’s Eminent (No.5)

Obviously the Autumn Sun and Winx don’t represent betting races so we skip straight through to the third Group One of the day which is the Ranvet Stakes over the 2000m. I found this a terribly difficult race. Mainly for the fact I just don’t know what to make of Avilius’ last run in the Australian Cup. It was all set up for him to deliver the knock out blow. He tracked through along the fence, the gap appeared and he looked as if he was going to go through and win easily. He just didn’t ping though. In the end it was a battling and pretty disappointing fifth. He has come up favourite again here on Saturday and while he may come out and win I just can’t get keen on him as favourite. It is not a race I want to play too heavily in. Unforgotten probably didn’t get to the heights I expected her too last campaign in the spring. Everything looked to be tracking along really well with her until she copped a bit of an ugly steer from Michael Walker in the Caulfield Stakes and her campaign was aborted. Prior to that she had been a dominant winner of the Chelmsford and run an enormous race in the Epsom. Her two runs this time in she has chased home Winx so that form in itself is always a bit hard to line up. She has given the impression she is looking for 2000m though. I think this is a race where she really gets her chance to win a Group One at weight for age level. She loves Rosehill having won three of four here and third up from a spell she should be just about at her top for this race, Hugh Bowman rides and I just feel she might be the horse capable of really stepping up and making a statement here so happy to be in her corner. I am keeping the New Zealand mare in Danzdanzdance on side. She will certainly want the track to stay in the soft to heavy range. She strung together two Group One wins in December before having about six weeks between runs leading into another Group One race in early February where she was given a torrid ride and was beaten as an odds on favourite. She was again a bit wide last start and made a long sustained run when just touched off by Melody Belle in a two horse war two weeks ago. She should have no issues getting a good run here from gate one for Opie Bosson and while that New Zealand form can be sometimes hard to line up I don’t think this is a vintage Group One field so I think she gets her chance and I am happy to have her on side. Sikandarabad is a horse that is really improving all the time and his form this time in has been excellent. He got a long way back in the Australian Cup and hit the line strongly on a day where it was hard to make ground form too far back. He draws well here for Mark Zahra and from that draw should be able to sit closer in the run. If that is the case I think he can be in the finish and at good double figure odds I am happy to have something on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Unforgotten, $20 the win on Danzdanzdance and $10 the win on Sikandarabad!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 7 - Golden Slipper

4:30pm

Suggested

Microphone (No.2), Cosmic Force (No.5) & Loving Gaby (No.16)

Dangers

Lyre (No.7), Tenley (No.9) & Exhilarates (No.15)

This is the big one of the day. It is the Group One Golden Slipper for the two year olds over the 1200m. It is an outstanding race the 2019 edition. There aren’t too many two year olds in Australia that I can think of and say “gee I wish they were in the Slipper”. I think they are all here. It promises to be a great race. It is a race I am quite bullish on too. It is pretty rare to come into a big Group One race with a capacity field like this and be too confident but I really to think that Microphone and Cosmic Force are the two here. I think they are both going to be really hard to beat. Cosmic Force is the horse fresh in everyone’s mind after last week’s seven length demolition job in the Pago Pago here on a heavy track. As the race was unfolding in the straight and he was drawing clear I was thinking to myself, gee this horse is going to take some beating next Saturday. Luckily those thoughts and my sobriety last Saturday led to me jumping on and backing him for the Golden Slipper so I am riding him home at $13 for this race. The reaction of James McDonald post race also suggested that the horse had given him a great feel. He said words to that effect. There is a slight knock that he is going to need those heavy conditions to reproduce what he did last Saturday. I am not convinced by that. It certainly won’t hinder his chances but I think this is just a case of a horse coming good at the right time. The Snowden team know how to get a horse to peak on this day and they may very well have just got this colt to peak at the right time. He draws gate two for Mark Zahra to get the gun run just off the speed and we know the rail has been the place to be in the Slipper in recent years. I think from there he stays in the first six in running and if the gaps come his way he is going to be very strong late. I think he is the one they all have to beat, I am pretty comfortable to be on him at the good odds and I am hoping he can do the job on Saturday. As impressive as he was last Saturday at his start before Microphone still ran straight past him so I can’t not be in the corner of that horse also. His two wins since being beaten in the Blue Diamond Preview have been outstanding. The temptation must have been there after his blistering win down the straight in the Talindert to run him in the Blue Diamond. The stable stuck to their guns though and brought him back to Sydney where he landed good bets in defeating Cosmic Force. The thing about this colt is that at his last two starts he has been doing it on the clock. The box I needed to see ticked last start was him running a strong 1200m and he did that. Like Cosmic Force here he draws down near the rail in gate one. I am not concerned by that for the reasons mentioned above. Typically Golden Slipper fields break up and if Bowman holds a spot on the rail in third or fourth and the run comes at the top of the straight this horse is going to take it and be pretty hard to beat. I am really confident one of the two can do the job and happy to be with Microphone also. The one other horse I am going to back in the race is Loving Gaby. She is just the untapped filly that I am not sure we have seen the best of. She won well on her debut when well backed before having no luck at all in the Blue Diamond. I am not saying she definitely would have won, but she would have went close. Her trial at Randwick last week was very nice. I love the way she quickened when asked for an effort there. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but is the one I can see really storming down the outside late. I want to have her on side at double figure odds. There are certainly other chances in the race. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Yes Yes Yes, Time To Reign, Lyre, Tenley, Pin Sec or Exhilarates but I really do think there is a sense of timing about Cosmic Force and Microphone that they are the two coming good at the right time. Backing them both and saving on Loving Gaby in what is shaping up as a great Golden Slipper.

Betting strategy

Like I said I am already on Cosmic Force at double figures but if I wasn't I would have $40 the win on him, $30 the win on Microphone and $10 the win on Loving Gaby!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - The Galaxy

5:10pm

Suggested

Ball Of Muscle (No.2), Pierata (No.3), Graff (No.6) & Encryption (No.10)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1) & Nature Strip (No.4)

This is the final Group One of the day. It is the Group One Galaxy over the 1100m and this is another great race. The confidence levels certainly aren’t as high here though let me tell you. I found this race just about impossible. Graff to me kind of ended up feeling like the safe bet in the race. You know you are probably going to get something to cheer about at some stage in the home straight. I was cheering in the Newmarket when he loomed up to Sunlight but she was too strong and fought him off in the run to the line. His run before that in the Lightning was excellent. He comes through two top sprint races where he has performed at a very high level so I think that all bodes well for him here coming back to Sydney. He gets in with just 52kgs on his back, he draws well for Brenton Avdulla in gate two to land just off the speed and I think whichever way you look at it he is going to be in the finish so happy to be with him. I thought the horse in the race that was big overs who also comes through the Melbourne sprint races was Encryption. This horse ran second in the Oakleigh Plate and wasn’t beaten far in the Newmarket last start. I was surprised he come up such big odds here. He gets in with no weight on his back for Craig Williams and drawn out he will go back and do no work in the run and hopefully have the last shot at them. At the $20 or so on offer I thought he was definitely worth a ticket. Pierata is the real interesting runner for mine. He just gave away far too big a start in the Canterbury Classic first up behind Trapeze Artist. Once that horse was able to get away with murder up front and Pierata was back last and spotting him a big start it was near impossible for Pierata to be any chance of winning. His sectionals were actually really good but he just gave away too big a start. He comes back to the 1200m here but in a bigger field with a more genuine tempo up front he should be able to blend into the race at the right time and not be giving away such an impossible start. He has a really good second up record and looking back through his form, his best form would see him go very close here. I think he is really good odds around the $8-10 mark. He handles soft going and I think you will see him run a much more prominent race here on Saturday. Happy to be with him. How can you not have something on Ball Of Muscle? He did the job for us last start just holding off Redzel and his form over the last six months or so and in his last two campaigns has just been outstanding. He loves the 1100m and while he is in this sort of form I just have to have something on him again at double figure odds. He actually meets Redzel better at the weights for beating him, so he has to be some chance here. Redzel and Nature Strip are obviously the two main dangers and well found in the market. I just don’t know what to do with either of them. Redzel was stiff not to win two weeks ago but will have to be at his best here under the handicap conditions while you just don’t know what you’re going to get with Nature Strip. It is a fascinating race. Graff the safe bet for me but expecting Pierata to run a big race and I think Encryption and Ball Of Muscle look over the odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Graff, $20 the win on Pierata and $10 the win on both Ball Of Muscle and Encryption!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:57pm

Suggested

Mullaghmore (No.2), Lucadeal (No.5) & Missed The Alarm (No.7)

Dangers

Tatcee (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane this Saturday returns to Eagle Farm. It is very hard getting a read on Brisbane races early with so many big fields and so many emergencies. Quite a few horses don’t have any jockeys engaged so we are guessing a little bit in many respects to how races will line up and play out. Given I have been up since 4am writing these previews I am going to whip through Eagle Farm pretty quickly. In positive news the weather is looking a lot kinder than what it was last weekend and we should be racing on a good track. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 2200m for the three year olds. The main form reference here is obviously the race won by Rocknavar over the 1800m two weeks ago. He just got the better of Mullaghmore in that race and Mullaghmore is the horse that looks hardest to beat here. He carried the field up to the runaway leader in Tatcee there last start and fought on tenaciously when Rocknavar loomed up to go straight past him. Mullaghmore really fought back strongly though and only narrowly went down. He draws gate five here and should roll forward and be up on speed. The way he fought on last start suggests the 2200m won’t be an issue and I expect him to be hard to beat. Lucadeal got the job done at the Gold Coast last start in dour fashion. He just looks as if he will stay all day. He is in his first preparation and has got better at each and every run so far. He looked under pressure coming round the home turn last start but just kept plugging away and really got into his work over the final furlong to pick up the leader and win running away. He draws in gate one here to box seat and providing he can get rolling you know he will run the trip right out so happy to be with him. Missed The Alarm got a long way back at Eagle Farm last start behind Rocknavar but hit the line in good fashion. She is another that looks as if she will lap up this longer trip so keeping her on side at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Mullaghmore, $20 the win on Lucadeal and $10 the win on Missed The Alarm here!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

4:00pm

Suggested

Calzini (No.5) & Usmanov (No.14)

Dangers

Jami Lady (No.1) & Pizonie (No.8)

This race is over the 1000m for the three year olds and again we have a case of a field with eight emergencies which just makes it impossible to get too much of an early read on the race. Usmanov with a couple of early scratchings is now guaranteed a start. He should prove hard to beat. He won well on debut before taking on a handy race at the Sunshine Coast at just his second start where he was just run down late. He has trialled well in preparation for this first up run. Jeff Lloyd rides for the powerful Edmonds stable and I anticipate him getting up on the speed first up over the 1000m and being hard to run down. If he has improved from that first preparation he is going to be hard to beat here. Calzini is the definite danger in the race. This filly strung together a series of good runs over the late spring and early summer and resumes from a two month spell here. Her last run before going for a spell at Eagle Farm she had no luck whatsoever. She should have finished a lot closer. She looks a filly with genuine talent. She is drawn out but will go back anyway and if the speed goes right on up front and sets it up for a horse to swoop from the back I feel she might be the one so keeping her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Usmanov here and save with $25 the win on Calzini!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 8

5:53pm

Suggested

Order Again (No.2) & Impasse (No.10)

Dangers

Sword Of Justice (No.3) & Jaminzah (No.5)

This race is over the 1500m. Order Again and Impasse were two horses I was keen on last start when I took on Tumbler stepping up to the 1400m. Low and behold Tumbler bombed down the outside and just tipped out Impasse and Order Again. This time around Order Again and Tumbler take on an in form Sword Of Justice who has strung together two consecutive wins leading all the way Doomben. I think here at Eagle Farm Sword Of Justice might find things a little more difficult. Order Again should certainly strip fitter for the first up run. He loomed to win there but just didn’t quite finish the race off. Second up to the 1500m on the bigger Eagle Farm track he looks well placed. He draws ideally for Larry Cassidy to take up a position just off the speed and providing he has gone on from that first up run I think he will be hard to hold out here so keen to be with him. Impasse is racing really well. He was probably a bit stiff here a couple of weeks ago. He had to take the shortcuts up the inside part of the track which probably wasn’t the best part of the track by that time of the day. Tumbler was coming down the middle of the track with full momentum and was able to get the better of him. Impasse draws out here but should be primed and ready to go at his third run back from a spell. He is a winner over this 1500m trip and providing he can get the right run in transit I think he should be hard to hold out so happy to be with him also in what looks a good two bet play to hopefully roll the favourite Sword Of Justice.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Order Again here and save with $35 the win on Impasse!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

6:30pm

Suggested

Marcel From Madrid (No.1) & Anjana (No.8)

Dangers

Yulong January (No.3)

This is a big weekend of racing and it all kicks off Friday night punters with the William Reid Stakes meeting from Moonee Valley. The main race itself looks a little bit light on this year particularly with the scratching of Shoals. It leaves Sunlight as a pretty short odds on favourite and for that reason I haven’t included the race into the betting preview. I think she probably wins, but not too interested in getting involved at the $1.70-80 on offer. I have found four races to bet into on the night where the rail is true and the track is good and I would expect the track to race well. I am kicking off in the first race which is for the three year olds over the 1200m. It is a small filed but a pretty interesting race all the same. The race won by Anjana at Flemington two weeks ago on Super Saturday certainly looks to be the key form reference. I was keen on Sunset Watch in that race and Anjana was able to sit off the pace and gun that gelding down before drawing on for an impressive victory. It is hard to see the tables being turned here on Friday night. There looks to be some good speed towards the inside with Yulong January and Khulaasa and Sunset Watch and Fine Dane will be coming across from the two outside gates. I think from gate four Ollie can just take a nice trailing sit in behind those leaders on Anjana and be poised to pounce to have the last crack at them. I love the way this filly really pulled clear of her rivals at Flemington last start and she has clearly come back well for Mick Price. She has raced well here at Moonee Valley in the past and providing she hasn’t gone backwards from that first up run I would think that she can be winning here again. Keen to be with her. Marcel From Madrid comes through that same race at Flemington and his run was a little bit hard to get a read on. He just never seemed to get a clear crack at them and may have went to the line with a little bit left in hand. He was very firm in the market that day off a good trial and I think out of that race if there is a horse that might be capable of turning the tables on Anjana then he is the one. Around that $8 mark I am happy to save on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Anjana here and save with $25 the win on Marcel From Madrid!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

8:00pm

Suggested

Ryan’s Fender (No.4) & Delightful Celyna (No.9)

Dangers

Snipes (No.3) & La Belle Jude (No.10)

This race is over the 2040m for the stayers. There are a few well exposed and tried and true commodities in this race and for that reason the lightly raced four year old in Ryan’s Fender certainly appeals as the horse very much on an upward spiral in this race. He has had a bit of a stop start career to date and hasn’t got too deep into too many campaigns. He has returned as a gelding this time in though and I think we are yet to see the best of him. He had two runs just before the end of the last calendar year where he ran well without winning in two pretty handy races. He then resumed off a two month freshen up at Warrnambool in mid February over the 1700m and got the job done in workmanlike fashion. He was sent around a pretty well supported $1.60 favourite that day. He sat outside the leader and looked to potentially be under a bit of pressure coming to the home turn when the second horse circled the field and got up outside of him and was seemingly travelling the better. He hadn’t really asked for Ryan’s Fender though and once he got balanced into the straight he really knuckled down and pulled clear of his rival and won easily. They gapped the third horse too which is a good sign. He hasn’t been seen since but has had a recent Camperdown jump out to keep him up to the mark. He was given a pretty solid hit out there over the 1000m where he hit the line nicely. I just think this looks the ideal race for him. Like I said, he is the horse on the up meeting a fair few rivals that look to have found their level. He just has to get around Moonee Valley which is a slight concern as he is a big striding horse but providing he can negotiate that obstacle I think he will be winning. Keen to be with him. I am going to save on Delightful Celyna who is a mare racing well this time in. She strung three wins together before taking on some better races at her last two starts and running well. She wasn’t beaten far by Jungle Fish two starts back at Pakenham before she arguably should have won at Sandown last start behind La Belle Jude. She just looks to be racing really well, she gets the services of Craig Williams and around the double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Ryan's Fender here and save with $15 the win on Delightful Celyna!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 5

8:30pm

Suggested

Superhard (No.5) & Oberland (No.6)

Dangers

Desert Lashes (No.3) & Belwazi (No.4)

This is a competitive 955m sprint at The Valley. With the rail in the true position I am hoping that gives the backmarkers an opportunity to run on and if that is the case I see no reason why Superhard won’t prove very hard to beat again. I think we can safely say that this is a pretty handy racehorse. I was on him first up at Flemington and was pretty surprised to see him get to double figure odds. He certainly didn’t run like a horse that should have been double figure odds. He sat back off the speed but you could see a fair way from home that he was going to take a power of beating and he rounded his rivals up very quickly before drawing on for the easiest of wins. He was actually eased down on the line. This is certainly a different type of race around Moonee Valley but I think the fact it is a relatively small field should play into his hands and if he is within striking distance of the leaders coming to the turn he is going to be very strong late and hard to hold out. A couple of the speed runners in the race are drawn out too so I am just hoping they might have to do a bit of work early and that will set it up for a horse like Superhard to come over the top of them late. After being with him first up I almost feel obliged to be with him again. I am also going to have something small on the ex-Weir galloper in Oberland. This galloper has turned in a couple of sparkling jump outs recently at Terang and Camperdown to have him ready for this first up assignment for Mitch Freedman. He looks to have come back really well. He draws gate five to get a smothering run in behind them off the speed and a bit like Superhard, if he is close enough in the run and getting clear air in the straight he is going to be finishing very strongly so happy to keep him on side at double figure odds off the strength of those two good jump outs.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Superhard and save with $15 the win on Oberland here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 6

9:00pm

Suggested

Mirette (No.6), Etana (No.8), Arctic Shock (No.11) & Princess Jenni (No.13)

Dangers

Angelic Ruler (No.3) & Victory Kingdom (No.5)

This is one of the feature races of the night. It is over the mile for the three year old fillies and it has drawn together a very competitive line up. The main form reference certainly looks to be the race won by Spanish Whisper at Flemington two weeks ago and Victory Kingdom and Angelic Ruler who ran second and third in that race have come up pretty short in the market here. I found it a pretty tough race though and found myself not overly enthused to get involved with either of those two at the prices on offer. I am playing this race a little bit wide and hoping we can get something at odds to salute. Mirette comes through a completely different form line to most here having had two runs at Warrnambool and Echuca to kick off her campaign. She has won both of those races in very easy fashion and she is a filly that I have a lot of time for. Her run in the 1000 Guineas in the spring behind Amphitrite was outstanding. She was only second up off a freshen up into that race after breaking her maiden at Benalla the start prior. She was three wide and working for the whole race and was beaten just over two lengths. It was an excellent run in what has proved to be a pretty strong race. I think she was then at the end of her campaign when failing pretty miserably on Melbourne Cup Day as a well backed favourite behind Pohutukawa. Her two wins this time in have been good in particular her second up performance at Echuca. She got the job done first up at Warrnambool but last start at Echuca was an arrogant and dominant victory. She steps back up in class here and I am hoping she can really make a statement. She is going to need luck from the wide draw but Jordan Childs is riding well and I just like the fact she comes through a bit of a different form line so around the $7-8 I am happy to be with her. Arctic Shock is the other horse that I want to have something on who comes through a different form reference. This filly got to the 1600m last start at Pakenham for the first time and lapped it up. She was well backed at her fourth career start and got the job done impressively winning eased down by a tidy margin. They ran good time for the night and I wouldn’t be surprised if she could make a successful leap up in class here. She draws to get a good run just off the speed for Ben Melham and around the $20-30 mark I thought she was worth a ticket here. From the Spanish Whisper race the two horses I am backing are Etana and Princess Jenni. That was a bit of a funny day at Flemington, not too many horses were coming wide and making ground which made the run of Etana full of merit in my opinion. She was three and four wide and working for the entire race and stuck on strongly to only be beaten just over two lengths. I think with a more economical run in transit here up to the mile she can run a really good race. She draws well for Meech to push forward and be on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to be with her. Princess Jenni was first up in a pretty hot 1400m race there. She was also asked to come wide in the straight and I thought she got through the line quite nicely after I was initially a little disappointed with the run. Looking over the pattern of the day though and watching her go through the line I think it was a pass mark. She again will have to go back from the wide draw here but I am convinced she is a filly with real talent who will take benefit from that first up run. Ollie stays with her and she is another at double figure odds that I am happy to have something on here.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Mirette here! I will also have $20 the win on Etana, $15 the win on Princess Jenni and $10 the win on Arctic Shock!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:50pm

Suggested

Star Fall (No.3) & Miss Toorak Flyer (No.8)

Dangers

Miss Leonidas (No.7) & Josephine Sea (No.11)

Racing on Saturday amazingly on Golden Slipper Day in Sydney comes from Mornington as the main meeting in Victoria. I won’t bore anyone with my ranting but the fact that in Victoria we don’t race at a major city track on Golden Slipper Day is a bit mystifying. I was at Caulfield the year Pierro won the Golden Slipper and the atmosphere on course that day was amazing with people tuned into the big screen to watch the Sydney races while enjoying a good program at Caulfield. This is a pretty good program at Mornington, but punters want to be betting at major city tracks on big days so I think it is a missed opportunity. Every year I say I won’t bother betting at this meeting as like most punters I am not a big fan of Mornington as far as a punting venue goes but as per usual I have had a look at the fields and got pretty easily sucked in. I have found five races to bet into and here is hoping we can have a successful day down on the peninsula. I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m. The market has really narrowed this down to three main chances in Star Fall, Miss Leonidas and Miss Toorak Flyer. I would be somewhat surprised if the winner didn’t come from that trio. I must say I was a little bit surprised that Star Fall didn’t come up a more pronounced favourite and as such I think that is where a bit of an opportunity lies here. He is clearly a pretty handy racehorse. He strung together three pretty dominant wins over the summer months before a last start failure at Randwick behind the talented Sylvia’s Mother. He has been given a nice freshen up since then and back to the 1000m here I think he will be hard to hold out. Certainly that win in fast time at Caulfield two starts back on Boxing Day over Mystyko reads very well for a race of this nature. He draws a nice middle gate for Liam Riordan and looking at the speed drawn inside of him I think he pretty easily lands outside the leader or in front without working too hard to happy to be with him. I am saving on Miss Toorak Flyer who somehow has managed to get beat at her last two starts. She was very unlucky to not win at Moonee Valley two starts back where she went via Pascoe Vale Road on the home corner. She then looked to have the race all parcelled up at Flemington last start only to be run down by Swift Sis late on. We have seen that filly come out and win again last Saturday. From gate four here Miss Toorak Flyer looks to get the gun trail in behind the speed and for mine should just need a touch of luck to be right in the finish.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $3.20 for Star Fall with SportsBet might be good value come the time they jump! I will have $65 the win on him at that price and save with $30 the win on Miss Toorak Flyer!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:25pm

Suggested

Call It A Day (No.3) & Island Daze (No.4)

Dangers

Enigman (No.1) & Lauchetti (No.10)

This race is over the 1200m and I thought it looked to be a pretty skinny race on paper. Island Daze has come back from a spell in good order this time in and looks to find a very winnable race here. She won her first two runs back from a spell at Sandown and Moonee Valley in strong fashion before running in that Swift Sis/Miss Toorak Flyer race last start at Flemington. She led the field up there to the final stages in what was a good run. While she takes on the males here it looks an easier assignment than last start in my opinion. It is a race with a few well exposed tried and true commodities and she is a lightly raced four year old mare that we probably haven’t seen the best of yet. She has an excellent 1200m record and Jordan Childs just needs to negate that outside barrier and if he does that I think she is clearly the horse to beat so keen to be in her corner. Her main opposition looks as if it will come from Call It A Day. This locally trained galloper has a really good record around his home circuit and resumed with a strong effort at Cranbourne two weeks ago over the 1000m. He carried 62kgs there and snuck through along the rail and chased home Seven Year Reward who is a pretty handy sprinter on his day. The third horse in Sweet Snitty came out and won well at Pakenham on Thursday night so the form looks good. Call It A Day is certainly not a 1000m horse so the fact that he got so close there over that trip first up suggests he has come back well. Second up over the 1200m suits and he really does look the main danger to Island Daze here. Looking at the race I would be pretty surprised if one of the two weren’t winning and I think it looks a good two bet play.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Island Daze here and save with $30 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Miss Belisa (No.2), Tahitian Dancer (No.4) & Kootara (No.7)

Dangers

Private Lounge (No.1) & Music Bay (No.3)

This looks to be a race that has a little bit more depth. It is over the 1200m for the fillies and mares and it looks a pretty hot little race. Music Bay has come up favourite again after being rolled at a prohibitive price at Sandown first up. She is certainly an excellent chance here and will be suited by the step up to the 1200m but I am just going around her here. I have been really taken with the trials of Tahitian Dancer leading into this first up assignment and I think first up on her home track she might come ready to rumble on Saturday. Certainly her form last spring around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read very well for a race of this nature. She looks as if she has come back really well too if her trials are anything to go by. Her first trial was nice alongside Assertive Play and the most recent won was just utterly dominant. She won by two lengths sailing down the middle of the track untouched and with plenty in hand. I think she will be hard to beat here. I like the fact she has had the two trials to prepare her for the first up 1200m run. She draws gate two to get a lovely run just in behind the speed and I think if the breaks come her way she is going to be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her to roll the other favourite in Music Bay. Kootara is another local that is fit and racing well this time in. I had something on her first up at Sandown Hillside where she ran well after being wide early. She then really went on from that run to land some good bets in winning impressively at Pakenham second up. She just looks a filly that has come back really well this time in. She draws a middle gate for Michael Poy to get a good run off the speed and she gets in with just 54kgs after his claim. With the couple of runs under her belt I think she might be able to test some of these better credentialed runners who are early in their campaigns. She went through the line really nicely too at her first 1200m attempt last start so happy to be with her at double figure odds. Miss Belisa is a throw at the stumps bet for something small. She jumped out really nicely at Cranbourne recently and has performed well on the fresh side in the past. She draws a nice middle gate to get a good run on speed and around the $20 mark I thought she was worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen Tahitian Dancer here and will have $55 the win on her! I will save with $20 the win on Kootara and $10 the win on Miss Belisa!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

4:10pm

Suggested

Trap For Fools (No.1) & Stars Of Carrum (No.5)

Dangers

High Bridge (No.8) & Hang Man (No.10)

This is the feature race of the day. It is the Mornington Cup over the mile and a half. It doesn’t look an overly strong edition this year and for that fact it was pretty hard to steer away from the class at the top of the weights in Trap For Fools. I really like this horse. He just gives his all wherever he runs. He gets out in front and rolls along in front and asks questions of his rivals. His form this time in has been excellent. I was really taken with how we went through the line first up at Caulfield over the mile behind Avilius and that run has made me stick with him at his last two. He beat all bar Avilius second up before running a brave third in the Australian Cup two weeks ago. Surprisingly looking at his stats he has never won over the mile and a half but the way he is racing currently gives me every indication that he is actually looking for that longer trip. For mine he is clearly the best horse in the race, there doesn’t look like there is a lot of speed engaged that is going to oppose him for that early lead and if he can roll along to the beat of his own drum out in front he is surely going to be very hard to get past. It looks a very winnable race for him given the class of horses he has been racing against not only this campaign but back in the spring and I am happy to be in his corner. I think Stars Of Carrum could be his fly in the ointment. The three year old is racing well this time in and there is no doubt at all that he is looking for this mile and a half trip. He had three good runs to kick off his campaign at a mile or less before going to the Valley last Friday night over the 2040m and running an excellent race behind Global Exchange in the Alistair Clark. He was either going to the Rosehill Guineas today to take on The Autumn Sun or this race and I personally reckon that this is a wise move. He gets in with 54kgs for Craig Newitt, his run in the Derby in the spring shows he will lap up the trip and I think he can run a big race here so happy to save on him behind the favourite Trap For Fools.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Trap For Fools here and save with $25 the win on Stars Of Carrum!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8

4:50pm

Suggested

Fastnet Tempest (No.4), Streets Of Avalon (No.9), Manolo Blahniq (No.10) & Milwaukee (No.14)

Dangers

Bons Away (No.3), Glenall (No.8) & Bel Sonic (No.17)

This is the feature sprint race of the day. It is the Hareeba Stakes over the 1200m. It has drawn together a big competitive field. It is wide open with plenty of chances. Manolo Blahniq comes into this race off a freshen up on his home track and has plenty to like about him for mine here. He raced really well through the summer months. He kicked the campaign off with an excellent run at Pakenham over an unsuitable 1000m before beating all bar Native Soldier at Caulfield on Boxing Day. He then went to Flemington and despite racing wide proved far too good in the Chester Manifold before having no luck at all at Caulfield at his most recent run. He has had a freshen up since then and this race just looks to set up nicely for him. He stays down in the weights with just 54kgs but with plenty of speed on up front he should get a lovely run back off the speed from a middle to wide gate and I can see him being really strong late and having the last crack at them. I reckon this might have been a bit of a target race for him on his home track so keen to be in his corner. I am keeping another local on side in Streets Of Avalon who is just races so well this campaign. He is pretty easy to like. He gets up on speed, makes his own luck and often proves pretty hard to get past. His effort last Saturday at Flemington to only be beaten by Widgee Turf and Hellova Street was excellent after sitting outside the leader the whole way. Providing he hasn’t taken too much ill effect from that run and can back up here dropping back to the 1200m he is going to be hard to beat again. He will roll forward from a middle gate and with those recent 1400m runs under his belt he will certainly prove pretty hard to get past so happy to be with him. I am also going to keep a couple of resuming runners on side. The first of those is Fastnet Tempest. He is a bit of an enigma this horse but a pretty talented one on his day. His recent jump out at Flemington without the blinkers on was quite sharp. He got through the line very nicely showing a nice turn of foot late. He gets the blinkers on for race day here and I think he might run a mighty race fresh. He draws a nice middle gate to get that good smothering run off the speed and with the likelihood of strong speed up front he might be the one that is coming out of the pack having the last shot at them. Around the $20-25 mark I think he is well worth a ticket. The other horse I am going to have something on is Milwaukee. This horse always runs a good race fresh. He gets down in the weights here from a good draw, has jumped out well enough and the Mike Moroney stable is going really well in recent weeks. His 1200m record is excellent and I think he will be up on speed getting the right run just behind the leaders and in the finish with a touch of luck so happy to be with him around the $15-20 mark also.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Manolo Blahniq here! I will also have $20 the win on Streets Of Avalon, $15 the win on Fastnet Tempest and $10 the win on Milwaukee!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Resin (No.2), Serene Miss (No.6) & Into The Abyss (No.12)

Dangers

She Knows (No.1) & Avantage (No.3)

A salivating day of racing. I can’t wait. As per usual for Golden Slipper Day in Sydney, it has been raining. The track is currently in the heavy range but the forecast does look a little more promising as I write this on Friday morning for Friday and Saturday so I would anticipate that we would get into the soft range come race day. The rail is out three metres which is a rail position that can lend itself to play a bit towards the inside. Certainly over the last couple of years the rail hasn’t been a bad spot to be on Golden Slipper Day but it will require close watching early in the day. Speaking of early in the day, I am kicking off in the first race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a good competitive race. Resin has shown a liking for soft conditions in her career so far and her first up run at Randwick last start when just touched off by Winter Bride and Spright suggests she has come back in good order this time around. She had the nice drop on the leaders there in that race but they went very hard and compounded early in the straight which left her in front a fair way from home. Given she was first up I think that just left her a little vulnerable for the other two mares to run her down. Providing she has gone on from that first up run and I see no reason why she wouldn’t have, then this looks a good race for her second up. She draws wide, so J-Mac’s tactics early will be interesting but I think if he gets them right she is probably the horse they all have to beat so happy to be with her. Serene Miss comes into this race second up after chasing home Renewal first up and I actually thought the run was quite good. She carried a big weight there and got a long way back out of her ground but got through the line nicely late after having to switch across heels at the top of the straight to get to the outside. Her last 100m was most impressive to my eye working through the line strongly. She draws nicely in gate three here to take up a more prominent position in running. She has an excellent soft track record, is unbeaten second up and gets nice weight relief here. I think there is a fair bit to like about her and happy to keep her on side at double figure odds. Into The Abyss is another horse I want to back in the race. This filly raced well without a lot of luck in the spring in Melbourne. Certainly that form around the likes of Sunlight and Pohutukawa reads pretty well for a race of this nature though. She has ran well on soft ground too which is important. Of most importance though is probably the fact that she trialled really nicely recently at Randwick. She sat back last but really finished the race off strongly late. She draws well in gate five here to get a gun run just off the speed and I think she is going to come to the races ready to rumble first up on Saturday and for that fact I am keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Resin here and save with $20 the win on Into The Abyss and $15 the win on Serene Miss!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 3

1:45pm

Suggested

Big Blue (No.6), Midterm (No.9) & Shraaoh (No.10)

Dangers

Big Duke (No.1) & Vin De Dance (No.4)

This was a race that I was originally not overly keen to bet into but on closer inspection found that two horses really did stand out to me. Shraaoh certainly looks to have his hoof on the till here at his third run back from a spell. This galloper made a really good impression when winning the 2800m race at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day at his Australian debut and was immediately spelled post that run. He didn’t do a lot first up when down the track behind Seaway but improved sharply last start when getting up in distance to the 2000m. He hit the line strongly but just failed to run down Hiyaam who led all the way. That run should have brought him on nicely for this third up assignment over the mile and a half. While his soft track form doesn’t read well, the fact he was so dominant in the heavy winning on Melbourne Cup Day eases that worry. He stays down in the weights from gate one for Kerrin McEvoy who is a master jockey in these staying races and I think he is the one they all have to beat. Keen to be with him. Midterm from the Lloyd Williams yard is the interesting runner here coming up from Melbourne. I am a bit of the opinion that the Melbourne staying form is superior to the Sydney staying form and if that comes to fruition here than Midterm is going to be very hard to hold out. I think Lloyd might have found a good race for this galloper here. He was well backed at Caulfield first up when finding the line nicely behind Sikandarabad and his form last campaign was also good through the spring. He has shown a liking for soft ground in his career which is probably why the stable has elected to come here over Mornington. He gets the blinkers on for the first time for Jamie Kah and he just shapes as being very hard to beat in my opinion. I think the $6-7 on offer about him is an excellent price. Happy to be with him. I am also going to have something small on my old favourite Big Blue. I reckon I might see him down at Warrnambool in five and a half weeks time but while the tracks are wet here up in Sydney he can still run a race on the flat. We saw him win at Randwick at big odds two starts back and he comes into this race first up with a hurdle trial under his belt. He will get up on speed and roll along at his own leisure and who knows might take some running down. At big odds I have to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Shraaoh here! I am going for a good result with Midterm and having $30 the win on him locking in the $6.50 available! I will also have $10 the win on Big Blue!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 6 - Ranvet Stakes

3:45pm

Suggested

Sikandarabad (No.8), Danzdanzdance (No.10) & Unforgotten (No.12)

Dangers

Avilius (No.2) & He’s Eminent (No.5)

Obviously the Autumn Sun and Winx don’t represent betting races so we skip straight through to the third Group One of the day which is the Ranvet Stakes over the 2000m. I found this a terribly difficult race. Mainly for the fact I just don’t know what to make of Avilius’ last run in the Australian Cup. It was all set up for him to deliver the knock out blow. He tracked through along the fence, the gap appeared and he looked as if he was going to go through and win easily. He just didn’t ping though. In the end it was a battling and pretty disappointing fifth. He has come up favourite again here on Saturday and while he may come out and win I just can’t get keen on him as favourite. It is not a race I want to play too heavily in. Unforgotten probably didn’t get to the heights I expected her too last campaign in the spring. Everything looked to be tracking along really well with her until she copped a bit of an ugly steer from Michael Walker in the Caulfield Stakes and her campaign was aborted. Prior to that she had been a dominant winner of the Chelmsford and run an enormous race in the Epsom. Her two runs this time in she has chased home Winx so that form in itself is always a bit hard to line up. She has given the impression she is looking for 2000m though. I think this is a race where she really gets her chance to win a Group One at weight for age level. She loves Rosehill having won three of four here and third up from a spell she should be just about at her top for this race, Hugh Bowman rides and I just feel she might be the horse capable of really stepping up and making a statement here so happy to be in her corner. I am keeping the New Zealand mare in Danzdanzdance on side. She will certainly want the track to stay in the soft to heavy range. She strung together two Group One wins in December before having about six weeks between runs leading into another Group One race in early February where she was given a torrid ride and was beaten as an odds on favourite. She was again a bit wide last start and made a long sustained run when just touched off by Melody Belle in a two horse war two weeks ago. She should have no issues getting a good run here from gate one for Opie Bosson and while that New Zealand form can be sometimes hard to line up I don’t think this is a vintage Group One field so I think she gets her chance and I am happy to have her on side. Sikandarabad is a horse that is really improving all the time and his form this time in has been excellent. He got a long way back in the Australian Cup and hit the line strongly on a day where it was hard to make ground form too far back. He draws well here for Mark Zahra and from that draw should be able to sit closer in the run. If that is the case I think he can be in the finish and at good double figure odds I am happy to have something on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Unforgotten, $20 the win on Danzdanzdance and $10 the win on Sikandarabad!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 7 - Golden Slipper

4:30pm

Suggested

Microphone (No.2), Cosmic Force (No.5) & Loving Gaby (No.16)

Dangers

Lyre (No.7), Tenley (No.9) & Exhilarates (No.15)

This is the big one of the day. It is the Group One Golden Slipper for the two year olds over the 1200m. It is an outstanding race the 2019 edition. There aren’t too many two year olds in Australia that I can think of and say “gee I wish they were in the Slipper”. I think they are all here. It promises to be a great race. It is a race I am quite bullish on too. It is pretty rare to come into a big Group One race with a capacity field like this and be too confident but I really to think that Microphone and Cosmic Force are the two here. I think they are both going to be really hard to beat. Cosmic Force is the horse fresh in everyone’s mind after last week’s seven length demolition job in the Pago Pago here on a heavy track. As the race was unfolding in the straight and he was drawing clear I was thinking to myself, gee this horse is going to take some beating next Saturday. Luckily those thoughts and my sobriety last Saturday led to me jumping on and backing him for the Golden Slipper so I am riding him home at $13 for this race. The reaction of James McDonald post race also suggested that the horse had given him a great feel. He said words to that effect. There is a slight knock that he is going to need those heavy conditions to reproduce what he did last Saturday. I am not convinced by that. It certainly won’t hinder his chances but I think this is just a case of a horse coming good at the right time. The Snowden team know how to get a horse to peak on this day and they may very well have just got this colt to peak at the right time. He draws gate two for Mark Zahra to get the gun run just off the speed and we know the rail has been the place to be in the Slipper in recent years. I think from there he stays in the first six in running and if the gaps come his way he is going to be very strong late. I think he is the one they all have to beat, I am pretty comfortable to be on him at the good odds and I am hoping he can do the job on Saturday. As impressive as he was last Saturday at his start before Microphone still ran straight past him so I can’t not be in the corner of that horse also. His two wins since being beaten in the Blue Diamond Preview have been outstanding. The temptation must have been there after his blistering win down the straight in the Talindert to run him in the Blue Diamond. The stable stuck to their guns though and brought him back to Sydney where he landed good bets in defeating Cosmic Force. The thing about this colt is that at his last two starts he has been doing it on the clock. The box I needed to see ticked last start was him running a strong 1200m and he did that. Like Cosmic Force here he draws down near the rail in gate one. I am not concerned by that for the reasons mentioned above. Typically Golden Slipper fields break up and if Bowman holds a spot on the rail in third or fourth and the run comes at the top of the straight this horse is going to take it and be pretty hard to beat. I am really confident one of the two can do the job and happy to be with Microphone also. The one other horse I am going to back in the race is Loving Gaby. She is just the untapped filly that I am not sure we have seen the best of. She won well on her debut when well backed before having no luck at all in the Blue Diamond. I am not saying she definitely would have won, but she would have went close. Her trial at Randwick last week was very nice. I love the way she quickened when asked for an effort there. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but is the one I can see really storming down the outside late. I want to have her on side at double figure odds. There are certainly other chances in the race. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Yes Yes Yes, Time To Reign, Lyre, Tenley, Pin Sec or Exhilarates but I really do think there is a sense of timing about Cosmic Force and Microphone that they are the two coming good at the right time. Backing them both and saving on Loving Gaby in what is shaping up as a great Golden Slipper.

Betting strategy

Like I said I am already on Cosmic Force at double figures but if I wasn't I would have $40 the win on him, $30 the win on Microphone and $10 the win on Loving Gaby!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - The Galaxy

5:10pm

Suggested

Ball Of Muscle (No.2), Pierata (No.3), Graff (No.6) & Encryption (No.10)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1) & Nature Strip (No.4)

This is the final Group One of the day. It is the Group One Galaxy over the 1100m and this is another great race. The confidence levels certainly aren’t as high here though let me tell you. I found this race just about impossible. Graff to me kind of ended up feeling like the safe bet in the race. You know you are probably going to get something to cheer about at some stage in the home straight. I was cheering in the Newmarket when he loomed up to Sunlight but she was too strong and fought him off in the run to the line. His run before that in the Lightning was excellent. He comes through two top sprint races where he has performed at a very high level so I think that all bodes well for him here coming back to Sydney. He gets in with just 52kgs on his back, he draws well for Brenton Avdulla in gate two to land just off the speed and I think whichever way you look at it he is going to be in the finish so happy to be with him. I thought the horse in the race that was big overs who also comes through the Melbourne sprint races was Encryption. This horse ran second in the Oakleigh Plate and wasn’t beaten far in the Newmarket last start. I was surprised he come up such big odds here. He gets in with no weight on his back for Craig Williams and drawn out he will go back and do no work in the run and hopefully have the last shot at them. At the $20 or so on offer I thought he was definitely worth a ticket. Pierata is the real interesting runner for mine. He just gave away far too big a start in the Canterbury Classic first up behind Trapeze Artist. Once that horse was able to get away with murder up front and Pierata was back last and spotting him a big start it was near impossible for Pierata to be any chance of winning. His sectionals were actually really good but he just gave away too big a start. He comes back to the 1200m here but in a bigger field with a more genuine tempo up front he should be able to blend into the race at the right time and not be giving away such an impossible start. He has a really good second up record and looking back through his form, his best form would see him go very close here. I think he is really good odds around the $8-10 mark. He handles soft going and I think you will see him run a much more prominent race here on Saturday. Happy to be with him. How can you not have something on Ball Of Muscle? He did the job for us last start just holding off Redzel and his form over the last six months or so and in his last two campaigns has just been outstanding. He loves the 1100m and while he is in this sort of form I just have to have something on him again at double figure odds. He actually meets Redzel better at the weights for beating him, so he has to be some chance here. Redzel and Nature Strip are obviously the two main dangers and well found in the market. I just don’t know what to do with either of them. Redzel was stiff not to win two weeks ago but will have to be at his best here under the handicap conditions while you just don’t know what you’re going to get with Nature Strip. It is a fascinating race. Graff the safe bet for me but expecting Pierata to run a big race and I think Encryption and Ball Of Muscle look over the odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Graff, $20 the win on Pierata and $10 the win on both Ball Of Muscle and Encryption!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:57pm

Suggested

Mullaghmore (No.2), Lucadeal (No.5) & Missed The Alarm (No.7)

Dangers

Tatcee (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane this Saturday returns to Eagle Farm. It is very hard getting a read on Brisbane races early with so many big fields and so many emergencies. Quite a few horses don’t have any jockeys engaged so we are guessing a little bit in many respects to how races will line up and play out. Given I have been up since 4am writing these previews I am going to whip through Eagle Farm pretty quickly. In positive news the weather is looking a lot kinder than what it was last weekend and we should be racing on a good track. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 2200m for the three year olds. The main form reference here is obviously the race won by Rocknavar over the 1800m two weeks ago. He just got the better of Mullaghmore in that race and Mullaghmore is the horse that looks hardest to beat here. He carried the field up to the runaway leader in Tatcee there last start and fought on tenaciously when Rocknavar loomed up to go straight past him. Mullaghmore really fought back strongly though and only narrowly went down. He draws gate five here and should roll forward and be up on speed. The way he fought on last start suggests the 2200m won’t be an issue and I expect him to be hard to beat. Lucadeal got the job done at the Gold Coast last start in dour fashion. He just looks as if he will stay all day. He is in his first preparation and has got better at each and every run so far. He looked under pressure coming round the home turn last start but just kept plugging away and really got into his work over the final furlong to pick up the leader and win running away. He draws in gate one here to box seat and providing he can get rolling you know he will run the trip right out so happy to be with him. Missed The Alarm got a long way back at Eagle Farm last start behind Rocknavar but hit the line in good fashion. She is another that looks as if she will lap up this longer trip so keeping her on side at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Mullaghmore, $20 the win on Lucadeal and $10 the win on Missed The Alarm here!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

4:00pm

Suggested

Calzini (No.5) & Usmanov (No.14)

Dangers

Jami Lady (No.1) & Pizonie (No.8)

This race is over the 1000m for the three year olds and again we have a case of a field with eight emergencies which just makes it impossible to get too much of an early read on the race. Usmanov with a couple of early scratchings is now guaranteed a start. He should prove hard to beat. He won well on debut before taking on a handy race at the Sunshine Coast at just his second start where he was just run down late. He has trialled well in preparation for this first up run. Jeff Lloyd rides for the powerful Edmonds stable and I anticipate him getting up on the speed first up over the 1000m and being hard to run down. If he has improved from that first preparation he is going to be hard to beat here. Calzini is the definite danger in the race. This filly strung together a series of good runs over the late spring and early summer and resumes from a two month spell here. Her last run before going for a spell at Eagle Farm she had no luck whatsoever. She should have finished a lot closer. She looks a filly with genuine talent. She is drawn out but will go back anyway and if the speed goes right on up front and sets it up for a horse to swoop from the back I feel she might be the one so keeping her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Usmanov here and save with $25 the win on Calzini!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 8

5:53pm

Suggested

Order Again (No.2) & Impasse (No.10)

Dangers

Sword Of Justice (No.3) & Jaminzah (No.5)

This race is over the 1500m. Order Again and Impasse were two horses I was keen on last start when I took on Tumbler stepping up to the 1400m. Low and behold Tumbler bombed down the outside and just tipped out Impasse and Order Again. This time around Order Again and Tumbler take on an in form Sword Of Justice who has strung together two consecutive wins leading all the way Doomben. I think here at Eagle Farm Sword Of Justice might find things a little more difficult. Order Again should certainly strip fitter for the first up run. He loomed to win there but just didn’t quite finish the race off. Second up to the 1500m on the bigger Eagle Farm track he looks well placed. He draws ideally for Larry Cassidy to take up a position just off the speed and providing he has gone on from that first up run I think he will be hard to hold out here so keen to be with him. Impasse is racing really well. He was probably a bit stiff here a couple of weeks ago. He had to take the shortcuts up the inside part of the track which probably wasn’t the best part of the track by that time of the day. Tumbler was coming down the middle of the track with full momentum and was able to get the better of him. Impasse draws out here but should be primed and ready to go at his third run back from a spell. He is a winner over this 1500m trip and providing he can get the right run in transit I think he should be hard to hold out so happy to be with him also in what looks a good two bet play to hopefully roll the favourite Sword Of Justice.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Order Again here and save with $35 the win on Impasse!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

6:30pm

Suggested

Marcel From Madrid (No.1) & Anjana (No.8)

Dangers

Yulong January (No.3)

This is a big weekend of racing and it all kicks off Friday night punters with the William Reid Stakes meeting from Moonee Valley. The main race itself looks a little bit light on this year particularly with the scratching of Shoals. It leaves Sunlight as a pretty short odds on favourite and for that reason I haven’t included the race into the betting preview. I think she probably wins, but not too interested in getting involved at the $1.70-80 on offer. I have found four races to bet into on the night where the rail is true and the track is good and I would expect the track to race well. I am kicking off in the first race which is for the three year olds over the 1200m. It is a small filed but a pretty interesting race all the same. The race won by Anjana at Flemington two weeks ago on Super Saturday certainly looks to be the key form reference. I was keen on Sunset Watch in that race and Anjana was able to sit off the pace and gun that gelding down before drawing on for an impressive victory. It is hard to see the tables being turned here on Friday night. There looks to be some good speed towards the inside with Yulong January and Khulaasa and Sunset Watch and Fine Dane will be coming across from the two outside gates. I think from gate four Ollie can just take a nice trailing sit in behind those leaders on Anjana and be poised to pounce to have the last crack at them. I love the way this filly really pulled clear of her rivals at Flemington last start and she has clearly come back well for Mick Price. She has raced well here at Moonee Valley in the past and providing she hasn’t gone backwards from that first up run I would think that she can be winning here again. Keen to be with her. Marcel From Madrid comes through that same race at Flemington and his run was a little bit hard to get a read on. He just never seemed to get a clear crack at them and may have went to the line with a little bit left in hand. He was very firm in the market that day off a good trial and I think out of that race if there is a horse that might be capable of turning the tables on Anjana then he is the one. Around that $8 mark I am happy to save on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Anjana here and save with $25 the win on Marcel From Madrid!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

8:00pm

Suggested

Ryan’s Fender (No.4) & Delightful Celyna (No.9)

Dangers

Snipes (No.3) & La Belle Jude (No.10)

This race is over the 2040m for the stayers. There are a few well exposed and tried and true commodities in this race and for that reason the lightly raced four year old in Ryan’s Fender certainly appeals as the horse very much on an upward spiral in this race. He has had a bit of a stop start career to date and hasn’t got too deep into too many campaigns. He has returned as a gelding this time in though and I think we are yet to see the best of him. He had two runs just before the end of the last calendar year where he ran well without winning in two pretty handy races. He then resumed off a two month freshen up at Warrnambool in mid February over the 1700m and got the job done in workmanlike fashion. He was sent around a pretty well supported $1.60 favourite that day. He sat outside the leader and looked to potentially be under a bit of pressure coming to the home turn when the second horse circled the field and got up outside of him and was seemingly travelling the better. He hadn’t really asked for Ryan’s Fender though and once he got balanced into the straight he really knuckled down and pulled clear of his rival and won easily. They gapped the third horse too which is a good sign. He hasn’t been seen since but has had a recent Camperdown jump out to keep him up to the mark. He was given a pretty solid hit out there over the 1000m where he hit the line nicely. I just think this looks the ideal race for him. Like I said, he is the horse on the up meeting a fair few rivals that look to have found their level. He just has to get around Moonee Valley which is a slight concern as he is a big striding horse but providing he can negotiate that obstacle I think he will be winning. Keen to be with him. I am going to save on Delightful Celyna who is a mare racing well this time in. She strung three wins together before taking on some better races at her last two starts and running well. She wasn’t beaten far by Jungle Fish two starts back at Pakenham before she arguably should have won at Sandown last start behind La Belle Jude. She just looks to be racing really well, she gets the services of Craig Williams and around the double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Ryan's Fender here and save with $15 the win on Delightful Celyna!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 5

8:30pm

Suggested

Superhard (No.5) & Oberland (No.6)

Dangers

Desert Lashes (No.3) & Belwazi (No.4)

This is a competitive 955m sprint at The Valley. With the rail in the true position I am hoping that gives the backmarkers an opportunity to run on and if that is the case I see no reason why Superhard won’t prove very hard to beat again. I think we can safely say that this is a pretty handy racehorse. I was on him first up at Flemington and was pretty surprised to see him get to double figure odds. He certainly didn’t run like a horse that should have been double figure odds. He sat back off the speed but you could see a fair way from home that he was going to take a power of beating and he rounded his rivals up very quickly before drawing on for the easiest of wins. He was actually eased down on the line. This is certainly a different type of race around Moonee Valley but I think the fact it is a relatively small field should play into his hands and if he is within striking distance of the leaders coming to the turn he is going to be very strong late and hard to hold out. A couple of the speed runners in the race are drawn out too so I am just hoping they might have to do a bit of work early and that will set it up for a horse like Superhard to come over the top of them late. After being with him first up I almost feel obliged to be with him again. I am also going to have something small on the ex-Weir galloper in Oberland. This galloper has turned in a couple of sparkling jump outs recently at Terang and Camperdown to have him ready for this first up assignment for Mitch Freedman. He looks to have come back really well. He draws gate five to get a smothering run in behind them off the speed and a bit like Superhard, if he is close enough in the run and getting clear air in the straight he is going to be finishing very strongly so happy to keep him on side at double figure odds off the strength of those two good jump outs.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Superhard and save with $15 the win on Oberland here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 6

9:00pm

Suggested

Mirette (No.6), Etana (No.8), Arctic Shock (No.11) & Princess Jenni (No.13)

Dangers

Angelic Ruler (No.3) & Victory Kingdom (No.5)

This is one of the feature races of the night. It is over the mile for the three year old fillies and it has drawn together a very competitive line up. The main form reference certainly looks to be the race won by Spanish Whisper at Flemington two weeks ago and Victory Kingdom and Angelic Ruler who ran second and third in that race have come up pretty short in the market here. I found it a pretty tough race though and found myself not overly enthused to get involved with either of those two at the prices on offer. I am playing this race a little bit wide and hoping we can get something at odds to salute. Mirette comes through a completely different form line to most here having had two runs at Warrnambool and Echuca to kick off her campaign. She has won both of those races in very easy fashion and she is a filly that I have a lot of time for. Her run in the 1000 Guineas in the spring behind Amphitrite was outstanding. She was only second up off a freshen up into that race after breaking her maiden at Benalla the start prior. She was three wide and working for the whole race and was beaten just over two lengths. It was an excellent run in what has proved to be a pretty strong race. I think she was then at the end of her campaign when failing pretty miserably on Melbourne Cup Day as a well backed favourite behind Pohutukawa. Her two wins this time in have been good in particular her second up performance at Echuca. She got the job done first up at Warrnambool but last start at Echuca was an arrogant and dominant victory. She steps back up in class here and I am hoping she can really make a statement. She is going to need luck from the wide draw but Jordan Childs is riding well and I just like the fact she comes through a bit of a different form line so around the $7-8 I am happy to be with her. Arctic Shock is the other horse that I want to have something on who comes through a different form reference. This filly got to the 1600m last start at Pakenham for the first time and lapped it up. She was well backed at her fourth career start and got the job done impressively winning eased down by a tidy margin. They ran good time for the night and I wouldn’t be surprised if she could make a successful leap up in class here. She draws to get a good run just off the speed for Ben Melham and around the $20-30 mark I thought she was worth a ticket here. From the Spanish Whisper race the two horses I am backing are Etana and Princess Jenni. That was a bit of a funny day at Flemington, not too many horses were coming wide and making ground which made the run of Etana full of merit in my opinion. She was three and four wide and working for the entire race and stuck on strongly to only be beaten just over two lengths. I think with a more economical run in transit here up to the mile she can run a really good race. She draws well for Meech to push forward and be on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to be with her. Princess Jenni was first up in a pretty hot 1400m race there. She was also asked to come wide in the straight and I thought she got through the line quite nicely after I was initially a little disappointed with the run. Looking over the pattern of the day though and watching her go through the line I think it was a pass mark. She again will have to go back from the wide draw here but I am convinced she is a filly with real talent who will take benefit from that first up run. Ollie stays with her and she is another at double figure odds that I am happy to have something on here.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Mirette here! I will also have $20 the win on Etana, $15 the win on Princess Jenni and $10 the win on Arctic Shock!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:50pm

Suggested

Star Fall (No.3) & Miss Toorak Flyer (No.8)

Dangers

Miss Leonidas (No.7) & Josephine Sea (No.11)

Racing on Saturday amazingly on Golden Slipper Day in Sydney comes from Mornington as the main meeting in Victoria. I won’t bore anyone with my ranting but the fact that in Victoria we don’t race at a major city track on Golden Slipper Day is a bit mystifying. I was at Caulfield the year Pierro won the Golden Slipper and the atmosphere on course that day was amazing with people tuned into the big screen to watch the Sydney races while enjoying a good program at Caulfield. This is a pretty good program at Mornington, but punters want to be betting at major city tracks on big days so I think it is a missed opportunity. Every year I say I won’t bother betting at this meeting as like most punters I am not a big fan of Mornington as far as a punting venue goes but as per usual I have had a look at the fields and got pretty easily sucked in. I have found five races to bet into and here is hoping we can have a successful day down on the peninsula. I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m. The market has really narrowed this down to three main chances in Star Fall, Miss Leonidas and Miss Toorak Flyer. I would be somewhat surprised if the winner didn’t come from that trio. I must say I was a little bit surprised that Star Fall didn’t come up a more pronounced favourite and as such I think that is where a bit of an opportunity lies here. He is clearly a pretty handy racehorse. He strung together three pretty dominant wins over the summer months before a last start failure at Randwick behind the talented Sylvia’s Mother. He has been given a nice freshen up since then and back to the 1000m here I think he will be hard to hold out. Certainly that win in fast time at Caulfield two starts back on Boxing Day over Mystyko reads very well for a race of this nature. He draws a nice middle gate for Liam Riordan and looking at the speed drawn inside of him I think he pretty easily lands outside the leader or in front without working too hard to happy to be with him. I am saving on Miss Toorak Flyer who somehow has managed to get beat at her last two starts. She was very unlucky to not win at Moonee Valley two starts back where she went via Pascoe Vale Road on the home corner. She then looked to have the race all parcelled up at Flemington last start only to be run down by Swift Sis late on. We have seen that filly come out and win again last Saturday. From gate four here Miss Toorak Flyer looks to get the gun trail in behind the speed and for mine should just need a touch of luck to be right in the finish.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $3.20 for Star Fall with SportsBet might be good value come the time they jump! I will have $65 the win on him at that price and save with $30 the win on Miss Toorak Flyer!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:25pm

Suggested

Call It A Day (No.3) & Island Daze (No.4)

Dangers

Enigman (No.1) & Lauchetti (No.10)

This race is over the 1200m and I thought it looked to be a pretty skinny race on paper. Island Daze has come back from a spell in good order this time in and looks to find a very winnable race here. She won her first two runs back from a spell at Sandown and Moonee Valley in strong fashion before running in that Swift Sis/Miss Toorak Flyer race last start at Flemington. She led the field up there to the final stages in what was a good run. While she takes on the males here it looks an easier assignment than last start in my opinion. It is a race with a few well exposed tried and true commodities and she is a lightly raced four year old mare that we probably haven’t seen the best of yet. She has an excellent 1200m record and Jordan Childs just needs to negate that outside barrier and if he does that I think she is clearly the horse to beat so keen to be in her corner. Her main opposition looks as if it will come from Call It A Day. This locally trained galloper has a really good record around his home circuit and resumed with a strong effort at Cranbourne two weeks ago over the 1000m. He carried 62kgs there and snuck through along the rail and chased home Seven Year Reward who is a pretty handy sprinter on his day. The third horse in Sweet Snitty came out and won well at Pakenham on Thursday night so the form looks good. Call It A Day is certainly not a 1000m horse so the fact that he got so close there over that trip first up suggests he has come back well. Second up over the 1200m suits and he really does look the main danger to Island Daze here. Looking at the race I would be pretty surprised if one of the two weren’t winning and I think it looks a good two bet play.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Island Daze here and save with $30 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Miss Belisa (No.2), Tahitian Dancer (No.4) & Kootara (No.7)

Dangers

Private Lounge (No.1) & Music Bay (No.3)

This looks to be a race that has a little bit more depth. It is over the 1200m for the fillies and mares and it looks a pretty hot little race. Music Bay has come up favourite again after being rolled at a prohibitive price at Sandown first up. She is certainly an excellent chance here and will be suited by the step up to the 1200m but I am just going around her here. I have been really taken with the trials of Tahitian Dancer leading into this first up assignment and I think first up on her home track she might come ready to rumble on Saturday. Certainly her form last spring around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read very well for a race of this nature. She looks as if she has come back really well too if her trials are anything to go by. Her first trial was nice alongside Assertive Play and the most recent won was just utterly dominant. She won by two lengths sailing down the middle of the track untouched and with plenty in hand. I think she will be hard to beat here. I like the fact she has had the two trials to prepare her for the first up 1200m run. She draws gate two to get a lovely run just in behind the speed and I think if the breaks come her way she is going to be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her to roll the other favourite in Music Bay. Kootara is another local that is fit and racing well this time in. I had something on her first up at Sandown Hillside where she ran well after being wide early. She then really went on from that run to land some good bets in winning impressively at Pakenham second up. She just looks a filly that has come back really well this time in. She draws a middle gate for Michael Poy to get a good run off the speed and she gets in with just 54kgs after his claim. With the couple of runs under her belt I think she might be able to test some of these better credentialed runners who are early in their campaigns. She went through the line really nicely too at her first 1200m attempt last start so happy to be with her at double figure odds. Miss Belisa is a throw at the stumps bet for something small. She jumped out really nicely at Cranbourne recently and has performed well on the fresh side in the past. She draws a nice middle gate to get a good run on speed and around the $20 mark I thought she was worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen Tahitian Dancer here and will have $55 the win on her! I will save with $20 the win on Kootara and $10 the win on Miss Belisa!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

4:10pm

Suggested

Trap For Fools (No.1) & Stars Of Carrum (No.5)

Dangers

High Bridge (No.8) & Hang Man (No.10)

This is the feature race of the day. It is the Mornington Cup over the mile and a half. It doesn’t look an overly strong edition this year and for that fact it was pretty hard to steer away from the class at the top of the weights in Trap For Fools. I really like this horse. He just gives his all wherever he runs. He gets out in front and rolls along in front and asks questions of his rivals. His form this time in has been excellent. I was really taken with how we went through the line first up at Caulfield over the mile behind Avilius and that run has made me stick with him at his last two. He beat all bar Avilius second up before running a brave third in the Australian Cup two weeks ago. Surprisingly looking at his stats he has never won over the mile and a half but the way he is racing currently gives me every indication that he is actually looking for that longer trip. For mine he is clearly the best horse in the race, there doesn’t look like there is a lot of speed engaged that is going to oppose him for that early lead and if he can roll along to the beat of his own drum out in front he is surely going to be very hard to get past. It looks a very winnable race for him given the class of horses he has been racing against not only this campaign but back in the spring and I am happy to be in his corner. I think Stars Of Carrum could be his fly in the ointment. The three year old is racing well this time in and there is no doubt at all that he is looking for this mile and a half trip. He had three good runs to kick off his campaign at a mile or less before going to the Valley last Friday night over the 2040m and running an excellent race behind Global Exchange in the Alistair Clark. He was either going to the Rosehill Guineas today to take on The Autumn Sun or this race and I personally reckon that this is a wise move. He gets in with 54kgs for Craig Newitt, his run in the Derby in the spring shows he will lap up the trip and I think he can run a big race here so happy to save on him behind the favourite Trap For Fools.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Trap For Fools here and save with $25 the win on Stars Of Carrum!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8

4:50pm

Suggested

Fastnet Tempest (No.4), Streets Of Avalon (No.9), Manolo Blahniq (No.10) & Milwaukee (No.14)

Dangers

Bons Away (No.3), Glenall (No.8) & Bel Sonic (No.17)

This is the feature sprint race of the day. It is the Hareeba Stakes over the 1200m. It has drawn together a big competitive field. It is wide open with plenty of chances. Manolo Blahniq comes into this race off a freshen up on his home track and has plenty to like about him for mine here. He raced really well through the summer months. He kicked the campaign off with an excellent run at Pakenham over an unsuitable 1000m before beating all bar Native Soldier at Caulfield on Boxing Day. He then went to Flemington and despite racing wide proved far too good in the Chester Manifold before having no luck at all at Caulfield at his most recent run. He has had a freshen up since then and this race just looks to set up nicely for him. He stays down in the weights with just 54kgs but with plenty of speed on up front he should get a lovely run back off the speed from a middle to wide gate and I can see him being really strong late and having the last crack at them. I reckon this might have been a bit of a target race for him on his home track so keen to be in his corner. I am keeping another local on side in Streets Of Avalon who is just races so well this campaign. He is pretty easy to like. He gets up on speed, makes his own luck and often proves pretty hard to get past. His effort last Saturday at Flemington to only be beaten by Widgee Turf and Hellova Street was excellent after sitting outside the leader the whole way. Providing he hasn’t taken too much ill effect from that run and can back up here dropping back to the 1200m he is going to be hard to beat again. He will roll forward from a middle gate and with those recent 1400m runs under his belt he will certainly prove pretty hard to get past so happy to be with him. I am also going to keep a couple of resuming runners on side. The first of those is Fastnet Tempest. He is a bit of an enigma this horse but a pretty talented one on his day. His recent jump out at Flemington without the blinkers on was quite sharp. He got through the line very nicely showing a nice turn of foot late. He gets the blinkers on for race day here and I think he might run a mighty race fresh. He draws a nice middle gate to get that good smothering run off the speed and with the likelihood of strong speed up front he might be the one that is coming out of the pack having the last shot at them. Around the $20-25 mark I think he is well worth a ticket. The other horse I am going to have something on is Milwaukee. This horse always runs a good race fresh. He gets down in the weights here from a good draw, has jumped out well enough and the Mike Moroney stable is going really well in recent weeks. His 1200m record is excellent and I think he will be up on speed getting the right run just behind the leaders and in the finish with a touch of luck so happy to be with him around the $15-20 mark also.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Manolo Blahniq here! I will also have $20 the win on Streets Of Avalon, $15 the win on Fastnet Tempest and $10 the win on Milwaukee!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Resin (No.2), Serene Miss (No.6) & Into The Abyss (No.12)

Dangers

She Knows (No.1) & Avantage (No.3)

A salivating day of racing. I can’t wait. As per usual for Golden Slipper Day in Sydney, it has been raining. The track is currently in the heavy range but the forecast does look a little more promising as I write this on Friday morning for Friday and Saturday so I would anticipate that we would get into the soft range come race day. The rail is out three metres which is a rail position that can lend itself to play a bit towards the inside. Certainly over the last couple of years the rail hasn’t been a bad spot to be on Golden Slipper Day but it will require close watching early in the day. Speaking of early in the day, I am kicking off in the first race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a good competitive race. Resin has shown a liking for soft conditions in her career so far and her first up run at Randwick last start when just touched off by Winter Bride and Spright suggests she has come back in good order this time around. She had the nice drop on the leaders there in that race but they went very hard and compounded early in the straight which left her in front a fair way from home. Given she was first up I think that just left her a little vulnerable for the other two mares to run her down. Providing she has gone on from that first up run and I see no reason why she wouldn’t have, then this looks a good race for her second up. She draws wide, so J-Mac’s tactics early will be interesting but I think if he gets them right she is probably the horse they all have to beat so happy to be with her. Serene Miss comes into this race second up after chasing home Renewal first up and I actually thought the run was quite good. She carried a big weight there and got a long way back out of her ground but got through the line nicely late after having to switch across heels at the top of the straight to get to the outside. Her last 100m was most impressive to my eye working through the line strongly. She draws nicely in gate three here to take up a more prominent position in running. She has an excellent soft track record, is unbeaten second up and gets nice weight relief here. I think there is a fair bit to like about her and happy to keep her on side at double figure odds. Into The Abyss is another horse I want to back in the race. This filly raced well without a lot of luck in the spring in Melbourne. Certainly that form around the likes of Sunlight and Pohutukawa reads pretty well for a race of this nature though. She has ran well on soft ground too which is important. Of most importance though is probably the fact that she trialled really nicely recently at Randwick. She sat back last but really finished the race off strongly late. She draws well in gate five here to get a gun run just off the speed and I think she is going to come to the races ready to rumble first up on Saturday and for that fact I am keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Resin here and save with $20 the win on Into The Abyss and $15 the win on Serene Miss!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 3

1:45pm

Suggested

Big Blue (No.6), Midterm (No.9) & Shraaoh (No.10)

Dangers

Big Duke (No.1) & Vin De Dance (No.4)

This was a race that I was originally not overly keen to bet into but on closer inspection found that two horses really did stand out to me. Shraaoh certainly looks to have his hoof on the till here at his third run back from a spell. This galloper made a really good impression when winning the 2800m race at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day at his Australian debut and was immediately spelled post that run. He didn’t do a lot first up when down the track behind Seaway but improved sharply last start when getting up in distance to the 2000m. He hit the line strongly but just failed to run down Hiyaam who led all the way. That run should have brought him on nicely for this third up assignment over the mile and a half. While his soft track form doesn’t read well, the fact he was so dominant in the heavy winning on Melbourne Cup Day eases that worry. He stays down in the weights from gate one for Kerrin McEvoy who is a master jockey in these staying races and I think he is the one they all have to beat. Keen to be with him. Midterm from the Lloyd Williams yard is the interesting runner here coming up from Melbourne. I am a bit of the opinion that the Melbourne staying form is superior to the Sydney staying form and if that comes to fruition here than Midterm is going to be very hard to hold out. I think Lloyd might have found a good race for this galloper here. He was well backed at Caulfield first up when finding the line nicely behind Sikandarabad and his form last campaign was also good through the spring. He has shown a liking for soft ground in his career which is probably why the stable has elected to come here over Mornington. He gets the blinkers on for the first time for Jamie Kah and he just shapes as being very hard to beat in my opinion. I think the $6-7 on offer about him is an excellent price. Happy to be with him. I am also going to have something small on my old favourite Big Blue. I reckon I might see him down at Warrnambool in five and a half weeks time but while the tracks are wet here up in Sydney he can still run a race on the flat. We saw him win at Randwick at big odds two starts back and he comes into this race first up with a hurdle trial under his belt. He will get up on speed and roll along at his own leisure and who knows might take some running down. At big odds I have to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Shraaoh here! I am going for a good result with Midterm and having $30 the win on him locking in the $6.50 available! I will also have $10 the win on Big Blue!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 6 - Ranvet Stakes

3:45pm

Suggested

Sikandarabad (No.8), Danzdanzdance (No.10) & Unforgotten (No.12)

Dangers

Avilius (No.2) & He’s Eminent (No.5)

Obviously the Autumn Sun and Winx don’t represent betting races so we skip straight through to the third Group One of the day which is the Ranvet Stakes over the 2000m. I found this a terribly difficult race. Mainly for the fact I just don’t know what to make of Avilius’ last run in the Australian Cup. It was all set up for him to deliver the knock out blow. He tracked through along the fence, the gap appeared and he looked as if he was going to go through and win easily. He just didn’t ping though. In the end it was a battling and pretty disappointing fifth. He has come up favourite again here on Saturday and while he may come out and win I just can’t get keen on him as favourite. It is not a race I want to play too heavily in. Unforgotten probably didn’t get to the heights I expected her too last campaign in the spring. Everything looked to be tracking along really well with her until she copped a bit of an ugly steer from Michael Walker in the Caulfield Stakes and her campaign was aborted. Prior to that she had been a dominant winner of the Chelmsford and run an enormous race in the Epsom. Her two runs this time in she has chased home Winx so that form in itself is always a bit hard to line up. She has given the impression she is looking for 2000m though. I think this is a race where she really gets her chance to win a Group One at weight for age level. She loves Rosehill having won three of four here and third up from a spell she should be just about at her top for this race, Hugh Bowman rides and I just feel she might be the horse capable of really stepping up and making a statement here so happy to be in her corner. I am keeping the New Zealand mare in Danzdanzdance on side. She will certainly want the track to stay in the soft to heavy range. She strung together two Group One wins in December before having about six weeks between runs leading into another Group One race in early February where she was given a torrid ride and was beaten as an odds on favourite. She was again a bit wide last start and made a long sustained run when just touched off by Melody Belle in a two horse war two weeks ago. She should have no issues getting a good run here from gate one for Opie Bosson and while that New Zealand form can be sometimes hard to line up I don’t think this is a vintage Group One field so I think she gets her chance and I am happy to have her on side. Sikandarabad is a horse that is really improving all the time and his form this time in has been excellent. He got a long way back in the Australian Cup and hit the line strongly on a day where it was hard to make ground form too far back. He draws well here for Mark Zahra and from that draw should be able to sit closer in the run. If that is the case I think he can be in the finish and at good double figure odds I am happy to have something on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Unforgotten, $20 the win on Danzdanzdance and $10 the win on Sikandarabad!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 7 - Golden Slipper

4:30pm

Suggested

Microphone (No.2), Cosmic Force (No.5) & Loving Gaby (No.16)

Dangers

Lyre (No.7), Tenley (No.9) & Exhilarates (No.15)

This is the big one of the day. It is the Group One Golden Slipper for the two year olds over the 1200m. It is an outstanding race the 2019 edition. There aren’t too many two year olds in Australia that I can think of and say “gee I wish they were in the Slipper”. I think they are all here. It promises to be a great race. It is a race I am quite bullish on too. It is pretty rare to come into a big Group One race with a capacity field like this and be too confident but I really to think that Microphone and Cosmic Force are the two here. I think they are both going to be really hard to beat. Cosmic Force is the horse fresh in everyone’s mind after last week’s seven length demolition job in the Pago Pago here on a heavy track. As the race was unfolding in the straight and he was drawing clear I was thinking to myself, gee this horse is going to take some beating next Saturday. Luckily those thoughts and my sobriety last Saturday led to me jumping on and backing him for the Golden Slipper so I am riding him home at $13 for this race. The reaction of James McDonald post race also suggested that the horse had given him a great feel. He said words to that effect. There is a slight knock that he is going to need those heavy conditions to reproduce what he did last Saturday. I am not convinced by that. It certainly won’t hinder his chances but I think this is just a case of a horse coming good at the right time. The Snowden team know how to get a horse to peak on this day and they may very well have just got this colt to peak at the right time. He draws gate two for Mark Zahra to get the gun run just off the speed and we know the rail has been the place to be in the Slipper in recent years. I think from there he stays in the first six in running and if the gaps come his way he is going to be very strong late. I think he is the one they all have to beat, I am pretty comfortable to be on him at the good odds and I am hoping he can do the job on Saturday. As impressive as he was last Saturday at his start before Microphone still ran straight past him so I can’t not be in the corner of that horse also. His two wins since being beaten in the Blue Diamond Preview have been outstanding. The temptation must have been there after his blistering win down the straight in the Talindert to run him in the Blue Diamond. The stable stuck to their guns though and brought him back to Sydney where he landed good bets in defeating Cosmic Force. The thing about this colt is that at his last two starts he has been doing it on the clock. The box I needed to see ticked last start was him running a strong 1200m and he did that. Like Cosmic Force here he draws down near the rail in gate one. I am not concerned by that for the reasons mentioned above. Typically Golden Slipper fields break up and if Bowman holds a spot on the rail in third or fourth and the run comes at the top of the straight this horse is going to take it and be pretty hard to beat. I am really confident one of the two can do the job and happy to be with Microphone also. The one other horse I am going to back in the race is Loving Gaby. She is just the untapped filly that I am not sure we have seen the best of. She won well on her debut when well backed before having no luck at all in the Blue Diamond. I am not saying she definitely would have won, but she would have went close. Her trial at Randwick last week was very nice. I love the way she quickened when asked for an effort there. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but is the one I can see really storming down the outside late. I want to have her on side at double figure odds. There are certainly other chances in the race. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Yes Yes Yes, Time To Reign, Lyre, Tenley, Pin Sec or Exhilarates but I really do think there is a sense of timing about Cosmic Force and Microphone that they are the two coming good at the right time. Backing them both and saving on Loving Gaby in what is shaping up as a great Golden Slipper.

Betting strategy

Like I said I am already on Cosmic Force at double figures but if I wasn't I would have $40 the win on him, $30 the win on Microphone and $10 the win on Loving Gaby!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - The Galaxy

5:10pm

Suggested

Ball Of Muscle (No.2), Pierata (No.3), Graff (No.6) & Encryption (No.10)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1) & Nature Strip (No.4)

This is the final Group One of the day. It is the Group One Galaxy over the 1100m and this is another great race. The confidence levels certainly aren’t as high here though let me tell you. I found this race just about impossible. Graff to me kind of ended up feeling like the safe bet in the race. You know you are probably going to get something to cheer about at some stage in the home straight. I was cheering in the Newmarket when he loomed up to Sunlight but she was too strong and fought him off in the run to the line. His run before that in the Lightning was excellent. He comes through two top sprint races where he has performed at a very high level so I think that all bodes well for him here coming back to Sydney. He gets in with just 52kgs on his back, he draws well for Brenton Avdulla in gate two to land just off the speed and I think whichever way you look at it he is going to be in the finish so happy to be with him. I thought the horse in the race that was big overs who also comes through the Melbourne sprint races was Encryption. This horse ran second in the Oakleigh Plate and wasn’t beaten far in the Newmarket last start. I was surprised he come up such big odds here. He gets in with no weight on his back for Craig Williams and drawn out he will go back and do no work in the run and hopefully have the last shot at them. At the $20 or so on offer I thought he was definitely worth a ticket. Pierata is the real interesting runner for mine. He just gave away far too big a start in the Canterbury Classic first up behind Trapeze Artist. Once that horse was able to get away with murder up front and Pierata was back last and spotting him a big start it was near impossible for Pierata to be any chance of winning. His sectionals were actually really good but he just gave away too big a start. He comes back to the 1200m here but in a bigger field with a more genuine tempo up front he should be able to blend into the race at the right time and not be giving away such an impossible start. He has a really good second up record and looking back through his form, his best form would see him go very close here. I think he is really good odds around the $8-10 mark. He handles soft going and I think you will see him run a much more prominent race here on Saturday. Happy to be with him. How can you not have something on Ball Of Muscle? He did the job for us last start just holding off Redzel and his form over the last six months or so and in his last two campaigns has just been outstanding. He loves the 1100m and while he is in this sort of form I just have to have something on him again at double figure odds. He actually meets Redzel better at the weights for beating him, so he has to be some chance here. Redzel and Nature Strip are obviously the two main dangers and well found in the market. I just don’t know what to do with either of them. Redzel was stiff not to win two weeks ago but will have to be at his best here under the handicap conditions while you just don’t know what you’re going to get with Nature Strip. It is a fascinating race. Graff the safe bet for me but expecting Pierata to run a big race and I think Encryption and Ball Of Muscle look over the odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Graff, $20 the win on Pierata and $10 the win on both Ball Of Muscle and Encryption!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:57pm

Suggested

Mullaghmore (No.2), Lucadeal (No.5) & Missed The Alarm (No.7)

Dangers

Tatcee (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane this Saturday returns to Eagle Farm. It is very hard getting a read on Brisbane races early with so many big fields and so many emergencies. Quite a few horses don’t have any jockeys engaged so we are guessing a little bit in many respects to how races will line up and play out. Given I have been up since 4am writing these previews I am going to whip through Eagle Farm pretty quickly. In positive news the weather is looking a lot kinder than what it was last weekend and we should be racing on a good track. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 2200m for the three year olds. The main form reference here is obviously the race won by Rocknavar over the 1800m two weeks ago. He just got the better of Mullaghmore in that race and Mullaghmore is the horse that looks hardest to beat here. He carried the field up to the runaway leader in Tatcee there last start and fought on tenaciously when Rocknavar loomed up to go straight past him. Mullaghmore really fought back strongly though and only narrowly went down. He draws gate five here and should roll forward and be up on speed. The way he fought on last start suggests the 2200m won’t be an issue and I expect him to be hard to beat. Lucadeal got the job done at the Gold Coast last start in dour fashion. He just looks as if he will stay all day. He is in his first preparation and has got better at each and every run so far. He looked under pressure coming round the home turn last start but just kept plugging away and really got into his work over the final furlong to pick up the leader and win running away. He draws in gate one here to box seat and providing he can get rolling you know he will run the trip right out so happy to be with him. Missed The Alarm got a long way back at Eagle Farm last start behind Rocknavar but hit the line in good fashion. She is another that looks as if she will lap up this longer trip so keeping her on side at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Mullaghmore, $20 the win on Lucadeal and $10 the win on Missed The Alarm here!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

4:00pm

Suggested

Calzini (No.5) & Usmanov (No.14)

Dangers

Jami Lady (No.1) & Pizonie (No.8)

This race is over the 1000m for the three year olds and again we have a case of a field with eight emergencies which just makes it impossible to get too much of an early read on the race. Usmanov with a couple of early scratchings is now guaranteed a start. He should prove hard to beat. He won well on debut before taking on a handy race at the Sunshine Coast at just his second start where he was just run down late. He has trialled well in preparation for this first up run. Jeff Lloyd rides for the powerful Edmonds stable and I anticipate him getting up on the speed first up over the 1000m and being hard to run down. If he has improved from that first preparation he is going to be hard to beat here. Calzini is the definite danger in the race. This filly strung together a series of good runs over the late spring and early summer and resumes from a two month spell here. Her last run before going for a spell at Eagle Farm she had no luck whatsoever. She should have finished a lot closer. She looks a filly with genuine talent. She is drawn out but will go back anyway and if the speed goes right on up front and sets it up for a horse to swoop from the back I feel she might be the one so keeping her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Usmanov here and save with $25 the win on Calzini!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 8

5:53pm

Suggested

Order Again (No.2) & Impasse (No.10)

Dangers

Sword Of Justice (No.3) & Jaminzah (No.5)

This race is over the 1500m. Order Again and Impasse were two horses I was keen on last start when I took on Tumbler stepping up to the 1400m. Low and behold Tumbler bombed down the outside and just tipped out Impasse and Order Again. This time around Order Again and Tumbler take on an in form Sword Of Justice who has strung together two consecutive wins leading all the way Doomben. I think here at Eagle Farm Sword Of Justice might find things a little more difficult. Order Again should certainly strip fitter for the first up run. He loomed to win there but just didn’t quite finish the race off. Second up to the 1500m on the bigger Eagle Farm track he looks well placed. He draws ideally for Larry Cassidy to take up a position just off the speed and providing he has gone on from that first up run I think he will be hard to hold out here so keen to be with him. Impasse is racing really well. He was probably a bit stiff here a couple of weeks ago. He had to take the shortcuts up the inside part of the track which probably wasn’t the best part of the track by that time of the day. Tumbler was coming down the middle of the track with full momentum and was able to get the better of him. Impasse draws out here but should be primed and ready to go at his third run back from a spell. He is a winner over this 1500m trip and providing he can get the right run in transit I think he should be hard to hold out so happy to be with him also in what looks a good two bet play to hopefully roll the favourite Sword Of Justice.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Order Again here and save with $35 the win on Impasse!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

6:30pm

Suggested

Marcel From Madrid (No.1) & Anjana (No.8)

Dangers

Yulong January (No.3)

This is a big weekend of racing and it all kicks off Friday night punters with the William Reid Stakes meeting from Moonee Valley. The main race itself looks a little bit light on this year particularly with the scratching of Shoals. It leaves Sunlight as a pretty short odds on favourite and for that reason I haven’t included the race into the betting preview. I think she probably wins, but not too interested in getting involved at the $1.70-80 on offer. I have found four races to bet into on the night where the rail is true and the track is good and I would expect the track to race well. I am kicking off in the first race which is for the three year olds over the 1200m. It is a small filed but a pretty interesting race all the same. The race won by Anjana at Flemington two weeks ago on Super Saturday certainly looks to be the key form reference. I was keen on Sunset Watch in that race and Anjana was able to sit off the pace and gun that gelding down before drawing on for an impressive victory. It is hard to see the tables being turned here on Friday night. There looks to be some good speed towards the inside with Yulong January and Khulaasa and Sunset Watch and Fine Dane will be coming across from the two outside gates. I think from gate four Ollie can just take a nice trailing sit in behind those leaders on Anjana and be poised to pounce to have the last crack at them. I love the way this filly really pulled clear of her rivals at Flemington last start and she has clearly come back well for Mick Price. She has raced well here at Moonee Valley in the past and providing she hasn’t gone backwards from that first up run I would think that she can be winning here again. Keen to be with her. Marcel From Madrid comes through that same race at Flemington and his run was a little bit hard to get a read on. He just never seemed to get a clear crack at them and may have went to the line with a little bit left in hand. He was very firm in the market that day off a good trial and I think out of that race if there is a horse that might be capable of turning the tables on Anjana then he is the one. Around that $8 mark I am happy to save on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Anjana here and save with $25 the win on Marcel From Madrid!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

8:00pm

Suggested

Ryan’s Fender (No.4) & Delightful Celyna (No.9)

Dangers

Snipes (No.3) & La Belle Jude (No.10)

This race is over the 2040m for the stayers. There are a few well exposed and tried and true commodities in this race and for that reason the lightly raced four year old in Ryan’s Fender certainly appeals as the horse very much on an upward spiral in this race. He has had a bit of a stop start career to date and hasn’t got too deep into too many campaigns. He has returned as a gelding this time in though and I think we are yet to see the best of him. He had two runs just before the end of the last calendar year where he ran well without winning in two pretty handy races. He then resumed off a two month freshen up at Warrnambool in mid February over the 1700m and got the job done in workmanlike fashion. He was sent around a pretty well supported $1.60 favourite that day. He sat outside the leader and looked to potentially be under a bit of pressure coming to the home turn when the second horse circled the field and got up outside of him and was seemingly travelling the better. He hadn’t really asked for Ryan’s Fender though and once he got balanced into the straight he really knuckled down and pulled clear of his rival and won easily. They gapped the third horse too which is a good sign. He hasn’t been seen since but has had a recent Camperdown jump out to keep him up to the mark. He was given a pretty solid hit out there over the 1000m where he hit the line nicely. I just think this looks the ideal race for him. Like I said, he is the horse on the up meeting a fair few rivals that look to have found their level. He just has to get around Moonee Valley which is a slight concern as he is a big striding horse but providing he can negotiate that obstacle I think he will be winning. Keen to be with him. I am going to save on Delightful Celyna who is a mare racing well this time in. She strung three wins together before taking on some better races at her last two starts and running well. She wasn’t beaten far by Jungle Fish two starts back at Pakenham before she arguably should have won at Sandown last start behind La Belle Jude. She just looks to be racing really well, she gets the services of Craig Williams and around the double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Ryan's Fender here and save with $15 the win on Delightful Celyna!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 5

8:30pm

Suggested

Superhard (No.5) & Oberland (No.6)

Dangers

Desert Lashes (No.3) & Belwazi (No.4)

This is a competitive 955m sprint at The Valley. With the rail in the true position I am hoping that gives the backmarkers an opportunity to run on and if that is the case I see no reason why Superhard won’t prove very hard to beat again. I think we can safely say that this is a pretty handy racehorse. I was on him first up at Flemington and was pretty surprised to see him get to double figure odds. He certainly didn’t run like a horse that should have been double figure odds. He sat back off the speed but you could see a fair way from home that he was going to take a power of beating and he rounded his rivals up very quickly before drawing on for the easiest of wins. He was actually eased down on the line. This is certainly a different type of race around Moonee Valley but I think the fact it is a relatively small field should play into his hands and if he is within striking distance of the leaders coming to the turn he is going to be very strong late and hard to hold out. A couple of the speed runners in the race are drawn out too so I am just hoping they might have to do a bit of work early and that will set it up for a horse like Superhard to come over the top of them late. After being with him first up I almost feel obliged to be with him again. I am also going to have something small on the ex-Weir galloper in Oberland. This galloper has turned in a couple of sparkling jump outs recently at Terang and Camperdown to have him ready for this first up assignment for Mitch Freedman. He looks to have come back really well. He draws gate five to get a smothering run in behind them off the speed and a bit like Superhard, if he is close enough in the run and getting clear air in the straight he is going to be finishing very strongly so happy to keep him on side at double figure odds off the strength of those two good jump outs.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Superhard and save with $15 the win on Oberland here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 6

9:00pm

Suggested

Mirette (No.6), Etana (No.8), Arctic Shock (No.11) & Princess Jenni (No.13)

Dangers

Angelic Ruler (No.3) & Victory Kingdom (No.5)

This is one of the feature races of the night. It is over the mile for the three year old fillies and it has drawn together a very competitive line up. The main form reference certainly looks to be the race won by Spanish Whisper at Flemington two weeks ago and Victory Kingdom and Angelic Ruler who ran second and third in that race have come up pretty short in the market here. I found it a pretty tough race though and found myself not overly enthused to get involved with either of those two at the prices on offer. I am playing this race a little bit wide and hoping we can get something at odds to salute. Mirette comes through a completely different form line to most here having had two runs at Warrnambool and Echuca to kick off her campaign. She has won both of those races in very easy fashion and she is a filly that I have a lot of time for. Her run in the 1000 Guineas in the spring behind Amphitrite was outstanding. She was only second up off a freshen up into that race after breaking her maiden at Benalla the start prior. She was three wide and working for the whole race and was beaten just over two lengths. It was an excellent run in what has proved to be a pretty strong race. I think she was then at the end of her campaign when failing pretty miserably on Melbourne Cup Day as a well backed favourite behind Pohutukawa. Her two wins this time in have been good in particular her second up performance at Echuca. She got the job done first up at Warrnambool but last start at Echuca was an arrogant and dominant victory. She steps back up in class here and I am hoping she can really make a statement. She is going to need luck from the wide draw but Jordan Childs is riding well and I just like the fact she comes through a bit of a different form line so around the $7-8 I am happy to be with her. Arctic Shock is the other horse that I want to have something on who comes through a different form reference. This filly got to the 1600m last start at Pakenham for the first time and lapped it up. She was well backed at her fourth career start and got the job done impressively winning eased down by a tidy margin. They ran good time for the night and I wouldn’t be surprised if she could make a successful leap up in class here. She draws to get a good run just off the speed for Ben Melham and around the $20-30 mark I thought she was worth a ticket here. From the Spanish Whisper race the two horses I am backing are Etana and Princess Jenni. That was a bit of a funny day at Flemington, not too many horses were coming wide and making ground which made the run of Etana full of merit in my opinion. She was three and four wide and working for the entire race and stuck on strongly to only be beaten just over two lengths. I think with a more economical run in transit here up to the mile she can run a really good race. She draws well for Meech to push forward and be on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to be with her. Princess Jenni was first up in a pretty hot 1400m race there. She was also asked to come wide in the straight and I thought she got through the line quite nicely after I was initially a little disappointed with the run. Looking over the pattern of the day though and watching her go through the line I think it was a pass mark. She again will have to go back from the wide draw here but I am convinced she is a filly with real talent who will take benefit from that first up run. Ollie stays with her and she is another at double figure odds that I am happy to have something on here.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Mirette here! I will also have $20 the win on Etana, $15 the win on Princess Jenni and $10 the win on Arctic Shock!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:50pm

Suggested

Star Fall (No.3) & Miss Toorak Flyer (No.8)

Dangers

Miss Leonidas (No.7) & Josephine Sea (No.11)

Racing on Saturday amazingly on Golden Slipper Day in Sydney comes from Mornington as the main meeting in Victoria. I won’t bore anyone with my ranting but the fact that in Victoria we don’t race at a major city track on Golden Slipper Day is a bit mystifying. I was at Caulfield the year Pierro won the Golden Slipper and the atmosphere on course that day was amazing with people tuned into the big screen to watch the Sydney races while enjoying a good program at Caulfield. This is a pretty good program at Mornington, but punters want to be betting at major city tracks on big days so I think it is a missed opportunity. Every year I say I won’t bother betting at this meeting as like most punters I am not a big fan of Mornington as far as a punting venue goes but as per usual I have had a look at the fields and got pretty easily sucked in. I have found five races to bet into and here is hoping we can have a successful day down on the peninsula. I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m. The market has really narrowed this down to three main chances in Star Fall, Miss Leonidas and Miss Toorak Flyer. I would be somewhat surprised if the winner didn’t come from that trio. I must say I was a little bit surprised that Star Fall didn’t come up a more pronounced favourite and as such I think that is where a bit of an opportunity lies here. He is clearly a pretty handy racehorse. He strung together three pretty dominant wins over the summer months before a last start failure at Randwick behind the talented Sylvia’s Mother. He has been given a nice freshen up since then and back to the 1000m here I think he will be hard to hold out. Certainly that win in fast time at Caulfield two starts back on Boxing Day over Mystyko reads very well for a race of this nature. He draws a nice middle gate for Liam Riordan and looking at the speed drawn inside of him I think he pretty easily lands outside the leader or in front without working too hard to happy to be with him. I am saving on Miss Toorak Flyer who somehow has managed to get beat at her last two starts. She was very unlucky to not win at Moonee Valley two starts back where she went via Pascoe Vale Road on the home corner. She then looked to have the race all parcelled up at Flemington last start only to be run down by Swift Sis late on. We have seen that filly come out and win again last Saturday. From gate four here Miss Toorak Flyer looks to get the gun trail in behind the speed and for mine should just need a touch of luck to be right in the finish.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $3.20 for Star Fall with SportsBet might be good value come the time they jump! I will have $65 the win on him at that price and save with $30 the win on Miss Toorak Flyer!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:25pm

Suggested

Call It A Day (No.3) & Island Daze (No.4)

Dangers

Enigman (No.1) & Lauchetti (No.10)

This race is over the 1200m and I thought it looked to be a pretty skinny race on paper. Island Daze has come back from a spell in good order this time in and looks to find a very winnable race here. She won her first two runs back from a spell at Sandown and Moonee Valley in strong fashion before running in that Swift Sis/Miss Toorak Flyer race last start at Flemington. She led the field up there to the final stages in what was a good run. While she takes on the males here it looks an easier assignment than last start in my opinion. It is a race with a few well exposed tried and true commodities and she is a lightly raced four year old mare that we probably haven’t seen the best of yet. She has an excellent 1200m record and Jordan Childs just needs to negate that outside barrier and if he does that I think she is clearly the horse to beat so keen to be in her corner. Her main opposition looks as if it will come from Call It A Day. This locally trained galloper has a really good record around his home circuit and resumed with a strong effort at Cranbourne two weeks ago over the 1000m. He carried 62kgs there and snuck through along the rail and chased home Seven Year Reward who is a pretty handy sprinter on his day. The third horse in Sweet Snitty came out and won well at Pakenham on Thursday night so the form looks good. Call It A Day is certainly not a 1000m horse so the fact that he got so close there over that trip first up suggests he has come back well. Second up over the 1200m suits and he really does look the main danger to Island Daze here. Looking at the race I would be pretty surprised if one of the two weren’t winning and I think it looks a good two bet play.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Island Daze here and save with $30 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Miss Belisa (No.2), Tahitian Dancer (No.4) & Kootara (No.7)

Dangers

Private Lounge (No.1) & Music Bay (No.3)

This looks to be a race that has a little bit more depth. It is over the 1200m for the fillies and mares and it looks a pretty hot little race. Music Bay has come up favourite again after being rolled at a prohibitive price at Sandown first up. She is certainly an excellent chance here and will be suited by the step up to the 1200m but I am just going around her here. I have been really taken with the trials of Tahitian Dancer leading into this first up assignment and I think first up on her home track she might come ready to rumble on Saturday. Certainly her form last spring around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read very well for a race of this nature. She looks as if she has come back really well too if her trials are anything to go by. Her first trial was nice alongside Assertive Play and the most recent won was just utterly dominant. She won by two lengths sailing down the middle of the track untouched and with plenty in hand. I think she will be hard to beat here. I like the fact she has had the two trials to prepare her for the first up 1200m run. She draws gate two to get a lovely run just in behind the speed and I think if the breaks come her way she is going to be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her to roll the other favourite in Music Bay. Kootara is another local that is fit and racing well this time in. I had something on her first up at Sandown Hillside where she ran well after being wide early. She then really went on from that run to land some good bets in winning impressively at Pakenham second up. She just looks a filly that has come back really well this time in. She draws a middle gate for Michael Poy to get a good run off the speed and she gets in with just 54kgs after his claim. With the couple of runs under her belt I think she might be able to test some of these better credentialed runners who are early in their campaigns. She went through the line really nicely too at her first 1200m attempt last start so happy to be with her at double figure odds. Miss Belisa is a throw at the stumps bet for something small. She jumped out really nicely at Cranbourne recently and has performed well on the fresh side in the past. She draws a nice middle gate to get a good run on speed and around the $20 mark I thought she was worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen Tahitian Dancer here and will have $55 the win on her! I will save with $20 the win on Kootara and $10 the win on Miss Belisa!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

4:10pm

Suggested

Trap For Fools (No.1) & Stars Of Carrum (No.5)

Dangers

High Bridge (No.8) & Hang Man (No.10)

This is the feature race of the day. It is the Mornington Cup over the mile and a half. It doesn’t look an overly strong edition this year and for that fact it was pretty hard to steer away from the class at the top of the weights in Trap For Fools. I really like this horse. He just gives his all wherever he runs. He gets out in front and rolls along in front and asks questions of his rivals. His form this time in has been excellent. I was really taken with how we went through the line first up at Caulfield over the mile behind Avilius and that run has made me stick with him at his last two. He beat all bar Avilius second up before running a brave third in the Australian Cup two weeks ago. Surprisingly looking at his stats he has never won over the mile and a half but the way he is racing currently gives me every indication that he is actually looking for that longer trip. For mine he is clearly the best horse in the race, there doesn’t look like there is a lot of speed engaged that is going to oppose him for that early lead and if he can roll along to the beat of his own drum out in front he is surely going to be very hard to get past. It looks a very winnable race for him given the class of horses he has been racing against not only this campaign but back in the spring and I am happy to be in his corner. I think Stars Of Carrum could be his fly in the ointment. The three year old is racing well this time in and there is no doubt at all that he is looking for this mile and a half trip. He had three good runs to kick off his campaign at a mile or less before going to the Valley last Friday night over the 2040m and running an excellent race behind Global Exchange in the Alistair Clark. He was either going to the Rosehill Guineas today to take on The Autumn Sun or this race and I personally reckon that this is a wise move. He gets in with 54kgs for Craig Newitt, his run in the Derby in the spring shows he will lap up the trip and I think he can run a big race here so happy to save on him behind the favourite Trap For Fools.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Trap For Fools here and save with $25 the win on Stars Of Carrum!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8

4:50pm

Suggested

Fastnet Tempest (No.4), Streets Of Avalon (No.9), Manolo Blahniq (No.10) & Milwaukee (No.14)

Dangers

Bons Away (No.3), Glenall (No.8) & Bel Sonic (No.17)

This is the feature sprint race of the day. It is the Hareeba Stakes over the 1200m. It has drawn together a big competitive field. It is wide open with plenty of chances. Manolo Blahniq comes into this race off a freshen up on his home track and has plenty to like about him for mine here. He raced really well through the summer months. He kicked the campaign off with an excellent run at Pakenham over an unsuitable 1000m before beating all bar Native Soldier at Caulfield on Boxing Day. He then went to Flemington and despite racing wide proved far too good in the Chester Manifold before having no luck at all at Caulfield at his most recent run. He has had a freshen up since then and this race just looks to set up nicely for him. He stays down in the weights with just 54kgs but with plenty of speed on up front he should get a lovely run back off the speed from a middle to wide gate and I can see him being really strong late and having the last crack at them. I reckon this might have been a bit of a target race for him on his home track so keen to be in his corner. I am keeping another local on side in Streets Of Avalon who is just races so well this campaign. He is pretty easy to like. He gets up on speed, makes his own luck and often proves pretty hard to get past. His effort last Saturday at Flemington to only be beaten by Widgee Turf and Hellova Street was excellent after sitting outside the leader the whole way. Providing he hasn’t taken too much ill effect from that run and can back up here dropping back to the 1200m he is going to be hard to beat again. He will roll forward from a middle gate and with those recent 1400m runs under his belt he will certainly prove pretty hard to get past so happy to be with him. I am also going to keep a couple of resuming runners on side. The first of those is Fastnet Tempest. He is a bit of an enigma this horse but a pretty talented one on his day. His recent jump out at Flemington without the blinkers on was quite sharp. He got through the line very nicely showing a nice turn of foot late. He gets the blinkers on for race day here and I think he might run a mighty race fresh. He draws a nice middle gate to get that good smothering run off the speed and with the likelihood of strong speed up front he might be the one that is coming out of the pack having the last shot at them. Around the $20-25 mark I think he is well worth a ticket. The other horse I am going to have something on is Milwaukee. This horse always runs a good race fresh. He gets down in the weights here from a good draw, has jumped out well enough and the Mike Moroney stable is going really well in recent weeks. His 1200m record is excellent and I think he will be up on speed getting the right run just behind the leaders and in the finish with a touch of luck so happy to be with him around the $15-20 mark also.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Manolo Blahniq here! I will also have $20 the win on Streets Of Avalon, $15 the win on Fastnet Tempest and $10 the win on Milwaukee!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Resin (No.2), Serene Miss (No.6) & Into The Abyss (No.12)

Dangers

She Knows (No.1) & Avantage (No.3)

A salivating day of racing. I can’t wait. As per usual for Golden Slipper Day in Sydney, it has been raining. The track is currently in the heavy range but the forecast does look a little more promising as I write this on Friday morning for Friday and Saturday so I would anticipate that we would get into the soft range come race day. The rail is out three metres which is a rail position that can lend itself to play a bit towards the inside. Certainly over the last couple of years the rail hasn’t been a bad spot to be on Golden Slipper Day but it will require close watching early in the day. Speaking of early in the day, I am kicking off in the first race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a good competitive race. Resin has shown a liking for soft conditions in her career so far and her first up run at Randwick last start when just touched off by Winter Bride and Spright suggests she has come back in good order this time around. She had the nice drop on the leaders there in that race but they went very hard and compounded early in the straight which left her in front a fair way from home. Given she was first up I think that just left her a little vulnerable for the other two mares to run her down. Providing she has gone on from that first up run and I see no reason why she wouldn’t have, then this looks a good race for her second up. She draws wide, so J-Mac’s tactics early will be interesting but I think if he gets them right she is probably the horse they all have to beat so happy to be with her. Serene Miss comes into this race second up after chasing home Renewal first up and I actually thought the run was quite good. She carried a big weight there and got a long way back out of her ground but got through the line nicely late after having to switch across heels at the top of the straight to get to the outside. Her last 100m was most impressive to my eye working through the line strongly. She draws nicely in gate three here to take up a more prominent position in running. She has an excellent soft track record, is unbeaten second up and gets nice weight relief here. I think there is a fair bit to like about her and happy to keep her on side at double figure odds. Into The Abyss is another horse I want to back in the race. This filly raced well without a lot of luck in the spring in Melbourne. Certainly that form around the likes of Sunlight and Pohutukawa reads pretty well for a race of this nature though. She has ran well on soft ground too which is important. Of most importance though is probably the fact that she trialled really nicely recently at Randwick. She sat back last but really finished the race off strongly late. She draws well in gate five here to get a gun run just off the speed and I think she is going to come to the races ready to rumble first up on Saturday and for that fact I am keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Resin here and save with $20 the win on Into The Abyss and $15 the win on Serene Miss!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 3

1:45pm

Suggested

Big Blue (No.6), Midterm (No.9) & Shraaoh (No.10)

Dangers

Big Duke (No.1) & Vin De Dance (No.4)

This was a race that I was originally not overly keen to bet into but on closer inspection found that two horses really did stand out to me. Shraaoh certainly looks to have his hoof on the till here at his third run back from a spell. This galloper made a really good impression when winning the 2800m race at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day at his Australian debut and was immediately spelled post that run. He didn’t do a lot first up when down the track behind Seaway but improved sharply last start when getting up in distance to the 2000m. He hit the line strongly but just failed to run down Hiyaam who led all the way. That run should have brought him on nicely for this third up assignment over the mile and a half. While his soft track form doesn’t read well, the fact he was so dominant in the heavy winning on Melbourne Cup Day eases that worry. He stays down in the weights from gate one for Kerrin McEvoy who is a master jockey in these staying races and I think he is the one they all have to beat. Keen to be with him. Midterm from the Lloyd Williams yard is the interesting runner here coming up from Melbourne. I am a bit of the opinion that the Melbourne staying form is superior to the Sydney staying form and if that comes to fruition here than Midterm is going to be very hard to hold out. I think Lloyd might have found a good race for this galloper here. He was well backed at Caulfield first up when finding the line nicely behind Sikandarabad and his form last campaign was also good through the spring. He has shown a liking for soft ground in his career which is probably why the stable has elected to come here over Mornington. He gets the blinkers on for the first time for Jamie Kah and he just shapes as being very hard to beat in my opinion. I think the $6-7 on offer about him is an excellent price. Happy to be with him. I am also going to have something small on my old favourite Big Blue. I reckon I might see him down at Warrnambool in five and a half weeks time but while the tracks are wet here up in Sydney he can still run a race on the flat. We saw him win at Randwick at big odds two starts back and he comes into this race first up with a hurdle trial under his belt. He will get up on speed and roll along at his own leisure and who knows might take some running down. At big odds I have to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Shraaoh here! I am going for a good result with Midterm and having $30 the win on him locking in the $6.50 available! I will also have $10 the win on Big Blue!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 6 - Ranvet Stakes

3:45pm

Suggested

Sikandarabad (No.8), Danzdanzdance (No.10) & Unforgotten (No.12)

Dangers

Avilius (No.2) & He’s Eminent (No.5)

Obviously the Autumn Sun and Winx don’t represent betting races so we skip straight through to the third Group One of the day which is the Ranvet Stakes over the 2000m. I found this a terribly difficult race. Mainly for the fact I just don’t know what to make of Avilius’ last run in the Australian Cup. It was all set up for him to deliver the knock out blow. He tracked through along the fence, the gap appeared and he looked as if he was going to go through and win easily. He just didn’t ping though. In the end it was a battling and pretty disappointing fifth. He has come up favourite again here on Saturday and while he may come out and win I just can’t get keen on him as favourite. It is not a race I want to play too heavily in. Unforgotten probably didn’t get to the heights I expected her too last campaign in the spring. Everything looked to be tracking along really well with her until she copped a bit of an ugly steer from Michael Walker in the Caulfield Stakes and her campaign was aborted. Prior to that she had been a dominant winner of the Chelmsford and run an enormous race in the Epsom. Her two runs this time in she has chased home Winx so that form in itself is always a bit hard to line up. She has given the impression she is looking for 2000m though. I think this is a race where she really gets her chance to win a Group One at weight for age level. She loves Rosehill having won three of four here and third up from a spell she should be just about at her top for this race, Hugh Bowman rides and I just feel she might be the horse capable of really stepping up and making a statement here so happy to be in her corner. I am keeping the New Zealand mare in Danzdanzdance on side. She will certainly want the track to stay in the soft to heavy range. She strung together two Group One wins in December before having about six weeks between runs leading into another Group One race in early February where she was given a torrid ride and was beaten as an odds on favourite. She was again a bit wide last start and made a long sustained run when just touched off by Melody Belle in a two horse war two weeks ago. She should have no issues getting a good run here from gate one for Opie Bosson and while that New Zealand form can be sometimes hard to line up I don’t think this is a vintage Group One field so I think she gets her chance and I am happy to have her on side. Sikandarabad is a horse that is really improving all the time and his form this time in has been excellent. He got a long way back in the Australian Cup and hit the line strongly on a day where it was hard to make ground form too far back. He draws well here for Mark Zahra and from that draw should be able to sit closer in the run. If that is the case I think he can be in the finish and at good double figure odds I am happy to have something on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Unforgotten, $20 the win on Danzdanzdance and $10 the win on Sikandarabad!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 7 - Golden Slipper

4:30pm

Suggested

Microphone (No.2), Cosmic Force (No.5) & Loving Gaby (No.16)

Dangers

Lyre (No.7), Tenley (No.9) & Exhilarates (No.15)

This is the big one of the day. It is the Group One Golden Slipper for the two year olds over the 1200m. It is an outstanding race the 2019 edition. There aren’t too many two year olds in Australia that I can think of and say “gee I wish they were in the Slipper”. I think they are all here. It promises to be a great race. It is a race I am quite bullish on too. It is pretty rare to come into a big Group One race with a capacity field like this and be too confident but I really to think that Microphone and Cosmic Force are the two here. I think they are both going to be really hard to beat. Cosmic Force is the horse fresh in everyone’s mind after last week’s seven length demolition job in the Pago Pago here on a heavy track. As the race was unfolding in the straight and he was drawing clear I was thinking to myself, gee this horse is going to take some beating next Saturday. Luckily those thoughts and my sobriety last Saturday led to me jumping on and backing him for the Golden Slipper so I am riding him home at $13 for this race. The reaction of James McDonald post race also suggested that the horse had given him a great feel. He said words to that effect. There is a slight knock that he is going to need those heavy conditions to reproduce what he did last Saturday. I am not convinced by that. It certainly won’t hinder his chances but I think this is just a case of a horse coming good at the right time. The Snowden team know how to get a horse to peak on this day and they may very well have just got this colt to peak at the right time. He draws gate two for Mark Zahra to get the gun run just off the speed and we know the rail has been the place to be in the Slipper in recent years. I think from there he stays in the first six in running and if the gaps come his way he is going to be very strong late. I think he is the one they all have to beat, I am pretty comfortable to be on him at the good odds and I am hoping he can do the job on Saturday. As impressive as he was last Saturday at his start before Microphone still ran straight past him so I can’t not be in the corner of that horse also. His two wins since being beaten in the Blue Diamond Preview have been outstanding. The temptation must have been there after his blistering win down the straight in the Talindert to run him in the Blue Diamond. The stable stuck to their guns though and brought him back to Sydney where he landed good bets in defeating Cosmic Force. The thing about this colt is that at his last two starts he has been doing it on the clock. The box I needed to see ticked last start was him running a strong 1200m and he did that. Like Cosmic Force here he draws down near the rail in gate one. I am not concerned by that for the reasons mentioned above. Typically Golden Slipper fields break up and if Bowman holds a spot on the rail in third or fourth and the run comes at the top of the straight this horse is going to take it and be pretty hard to beat. I am really confident one of the two can do the job and happy to be with Microphone also. The one other horse I am going to back in the race is Loving Gaby. She is just the untapped filly that I am not sure we have seen the best of. She won well on her debut when well backed before having no luck at all in the Blue Diamond. I am not saying she definitely would have won, but she would have went close. Her trial at Randwick last week was very nice. I love the way she quickened when asked for an effort there. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but is the one I can see really storming down the outside late. I want to have her on side at double figure odds. There are certainly other chances in the race. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Yes Yes Yes, Time To Reign, Lyre, Tenley, Pin Sec or Exhilarates but I really do think there is a sense of timing about Cosmic Force and Microphone that they are the two coming good at the right time. Backing them both and saving on Loving Gaby in what is shaping up as a great Golden Slipper.

Betting strategy

Like I said I am already on Cosmic Force at double figures but if I wasn't I would have $40 the win on him, $30 the win on Microphone and $10 the win on Loving Gaby!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - The Galaxy

5:10pm

Suggested

Ball Of Muscle (No.2), Pierata (No.3), Graff (No.6) & Encryption (No.10)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1) & Nature Strip (No.4)

This is the final Group One of the day. It is the Group One Galaxy over the 1100m and this is another great race. The confidence levels certainly aren’t as high here though let me tell you. I found this race just about impossible. Graff to me kind of ended up feeling like the safe bet in the race. You know you are probably going to get something to cheer about at some stage in the home straight. I was cheering in the Newmarket when he loomed up to Sunlight but she was too strong and fought him off in the run to the line. His run before that in the Lightning was excellent. He comes through two top sprint races where he has performed at a very high level so I think that all bodes well for him here coming back to Sydney. He gets in with just 52kgs on his back, he draws well for Brenton Avdulla in gate two to land just off the speed and I think whichever way you look at it he is going to be in the finish so happy to be with him. I thought the horse in the race that was big overs who also comes through the Melbourne sprint races was Encryption. This horse ran second in the Oakleigh Plate and wasn’t beaten far in the Newmarket last start. I was surprised he come up such big odds here. He gets in with no weight on his back for Craig Williams and drawn out he will go back and do no work in the run and hopefully have the last shot at them. At the $20 or so on offer I thought he was definitely worth a ticket. Pierata is the real interesting runner for mine. He just gave away far too big a start in the Canterbury Classic first up behind Trapeze Artist. Once that horse was able to get away with murder up front and Pierata was back last and spotting him a big start it was near impossible for Pierata to be any chance of winning. His sectionals were actually really good but he just gave away too big a start. He comes back to the 1200m here but in a bigger field with a more genuine tempo up front he should be able to blend into the race at the right time and not be giving away such an impossible start. He has a really good second up record and looking back through his form, his best form would see him go very close here. I think he is really good odds around the $8-10 mark. He handles soft going and I think you will see him run a much more prominent race here on Saturday. Happy to be with him. How can you not have something on Ball Of Muscle? He did the job for us last start just holding off Redzel and his form over the last six months or so and in his last two campaigns has just been outstanding. He loves the 1100m and while he is in this sort of form I just have to have something on him again at double figure odds. He actually meets Redzel better at the weights for beating him, so he has to be some chance here. Redzel and Nature Strip are obviously the two main dangers and well found in the market. I just don’t know what to do with either of them. Redzel was stiff not to win two weeks ago but will have to be at his best here under the handicap conditions while you just don’t know what you’re going to get with Nature Strip. It is a fascinating race. Graff the safe bet for me but expecting Pierata to run a big race and I think Encryption and Ball Of Muscle look over the odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Graff, $20 the win on Pierata and $10 the win on both Ball Of Muscle and Encryption!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:57pm

Suggested

Mullaghmore (No.2), Lucadeal (No.5) & Missed The Alarm (No.7)

Dangers

Tatcee (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane this Saturday returns to Eagle Farm. It is very hard getting a read on Brisbane races early with so many big fields and so many emergencies. Quite a few horses don’t have any jockeys engaged so we are guessing a little bit in many respects to how races will line up and play out. Given I have been up since 4am writing these previews I am going to whip through Eagle Farm pretty quickly. In positive news the weather is looking a lot kinder than what it was last weekend and we should be racing on a good track. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 2200m for the three year olds. The main form reference here is obviously the race won by Rocknavar over the 1800m two weeks ago. He just got the better of Mullaghmore in that race and Mullaghmore is the horse that looks hardest to beat here. He carried the field up to the runaway leader in Tatcee there last start and fought on tenaciously when Rocknavar loomed up to go straight past him. Mullaghmore really fought back strongly though and only narrowly went down. He draws gate five here and should roll forward and be up on speed. The way he fought on last start suggests the 2200m won’t be an issue and I expect him to be hard to beat. Lucadeal got the job done at the Gold Coast last start in dour fashion. He just looks as if he will stay all day. He is in his first preparation and has got better at each and every run so far. He looked under pressure coming round the home turn last start but just kept plugging away and really got into his work over the final furlong to pick up the leader and win running away. He draws in gate one here to box seat and providing he can get rolling you know he will run the trip right out so happy to be with him. Missed The Alarm got a long way back at Eagle Farm last start behind Rocknavar but hit the line in good fashion. She is another that looks as if she will lap up this longer trip so keeping her on side at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Mullaghmore, $20 the win on Lucadeal and $10 the win on Missed The Alarm here!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

4:00pm

Suggested

Calzini (No.5) & Usmanov (No.14)

Dangers

Jami Lady (No.1) & Pizonie (No.8)

This race is over the 1000m for the three year olds and again we have a case of a field with eight emergencies which just makes it impossible to get too much of an early read on the race. Usmanov with a couple of early scratchings is now guaranteed a start. He should prove hard to beat. He won well on debut before taking on a handy race at the Sunshine Coast at just his second start where he was just run down late. He has trialled well in preparation for this first up run. Jeff Lloyd rides for the powerful Edmonds stable and I anticipate him getting up on the speed first up over the 1000m and being hard to run down. If he has improved from that first preparation he is going to be hard to beat here. Calzini is the definite danger in the race. This filly strung together a series of good runs over the late spring and early summer and resumes from a two month spell here. Her last run before going for a spell at Eagle Farm she had no luck whatsoever. She should have finished a lot closer. She looks a filly with genuine talent. She is drawn out but will go back anyway and if the speed goes right on up front and sets it up for a horse to swoop from the back I feel she might be the one so keeping her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Usmanov here and save with $25 the win on Calzini!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 8

5:53pm

Suggested

Order Again (No.2) & Impasse (No.10)

Dangers

Sword Of Justice (No.3) & Jaminzah (No.5)

This race is over the 1500m. Order Again and Impasse were two horses I was keen on last start when I took on Tumbler stepping up to the 1400m. Low and behold Tumbler bombed down the outside and just tipped out Impasse and Order Again. This time around Order Again and Tumbler take on an in form Sword Of Justice who has strung together two consecutive wins leading all the way Doomben. I think here at Eagle Farm Sword Of Justice might find things a little more difficult. Order Again should certainly strip fitter for the first up run. He loomed to win there but just didn’t quite finish the race off. Second up to the 1500m on the bigger Eagle Farm track he looks well placed. He draws ideally for Larry Cassidy to take up a position just off the speed and providing he has gone on from that first up run I think he will be hard to hold out here so keen to be with him. Impasse is racing really well. He was probably a bit stiff here a couple of weeks ago. He had to take the shortcuts up the inside part of the track which probably wasn’t the best part of the track by that time of the day. Tumbler was coming down the middle of the track with full momentum and was able to get the better of him. Impasse draws out here but should be primed and ready to go at his third run back from a spell. He is a winner over this 1500m trip and providing he can get the right run in transit I think he should be hard to hold out so happy to be with him also in what looks a good two bet play to hopefully roll the favourite Sword Of Justice.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Order Again here and save with $35 the win on Impasse!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 1

6:30pm

Suggested

Marcel From Madrid (No.1) & Anjana (No.8)

Dangers

Yulong January (No.3)

This is a big weekend of racing and it all kicks off Friday night punters with the William Reid Stakes meeting from Moonee Valley. The main race itself looks a little bit light on this year particularly with the scratching of Shoals. It leaves Sunlight as a pretty short odds on favourite and for that reason I haven’t included the race into the betting preview. I think she probably wins, but not too interested in getting involved at the $1.70-80 on offer. I have found four races to bet into on the night where the rail is true and the track is good and I would expect the track to race well. I am kicking off in the first race which is for the three year olds over the 1200m. It is a small filed but a pretty interesting race all the same. The race won by Anjana at Flemington two weeks ago on Super Saturday certainly looks to be the key form reference. I was keen on Sunset Watch in that race and Anjana was able to sit off the pace and gun that gelding down before drawing on for an impressive victory. It is hard to see the tables being turned here on Friday night. There looks to be some good speed towards the inside with Yulong January and Khulaasa and Sunset Watch and Fine Dane will be coming across from the two outside gates. I think from gate four Ollie can just take a nice trailing sit in behind those leaders on Anjana and be poised to pounce to have the last crack at them. I love the way this filly really pulled clear of her rivals at Flemington last start and she has clearly come back well for Mick Price. She has raced well here at Moonee Valley in the past and providing she hasn’t gone backwards from that first up run I would think that she can be winning here again. Keen to be with her. Marcel From Madrid comes through that same race at Flemington and his run was a little bit hard to get a read on. He just never seemed to get a clear crack at them and may have went to the line with a little bit left in hand. He was very firm in the market that day off a good trial and I think out of that race if there is a horse that might be capable of turning the tables on Anjana then he is the one. Around that $8 mark I am happy to save on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Anjana here and save with $25 the win on Marcel From Madrid!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 4

8:00pm

Suggested

Ryan’s Fender (No.4) & Delightful Celyna (No.9)

Dangers

Snipes (No.3) & La Belle Jude (No.10)

This race is over the 2040m for the stayers. There are a few well exposed and tried and true commodities in this race and for that reason the lightly raced four year old in Ryan’s Fender certainly appeals as the horse very much on an upward spiral in this race. He has had a bit of a stop start career to date and hasn’t got too deep into too many campaigns. He has returned as a gelding this time in though and I think we are yet to see the best of him. He had two runs just before the end of the last calendar year where he ran well without winning in two pretty handy races. He then resumed off a two month freshen up at Warrnambool in mid February over the 1700m and got the job done in workmanlike fashion. He was sent around a pretty well supported $1.60 favourite that day. He sat outside the leader and looked to potentially be under a bit of pressure coming to the home turn when the second horse circled the field and got up outside of him and was seemingly travelling the better. He hadn’t really asked for Ryan’s Fender though and once he got balanced into the straight he really knuckled down and pulled clear of his rival and won easily. They gapped the third horse too which is a good sign. He hasn’t been seen since but has had a recent Camperdown jump out to keep him up to the mark. He was given a pretty solid hit out there over the 1000m where he hit the line nicely. I just think this looks the ideal race for him. Like I said, he is the horse on the up meeting a fair few rivals that look to have found their level. He just has to get around Moonee Valley which is a slight concern as he is a big striding horse but providing he can negotiate that obstacle I think he will be winning. Keen to be with him. I am going to save on Delightful Celyna who is a mare racing well this time in. She strung three wins together before taking on some better races at her last two starts and running well. She wasn’t beaten far by Jungle Fish two starts back at Pakenham before she arguably should have won at Sandown last start behind La Belle Jude. She just looks to be racing really well, she gets the services of Craig Williams and around the double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Ryan's Fender here and save with $15 the win on Delightful Celyna!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 5

8:30pm

Suggested

Superhard (No.5) & Oberland (No.6)

Dangers

Desert Lashes (No.3) & Belwazi (No.4)

This is a competitive 955m sprint at The Valley. With the rail in the true position I am hoping that gives the backmarkers an opportunity to run on and if that is the case I see no reason why Superhard won’t prove very hard to beat again. I think we can safely say that this is a pretty handy racehorse. I was on him first up at Flemington and was pretty surprised to see him get to double figure odds. He certainly didn’t run like a horse that should have been double figure odds. He sat back off the speed but you could see a fair way from home that he was going to take a power of beating and he rounded his rivals up very quickly before drawing on for the easiest of wins. He was actually eased down on the line. This is certainly a different type of race around Moonee Valley but I think the fact it is a relatively small field should play into his hands and if he is within striking distance of the leaders coming to the turn he is going to be very strong late and hard to hold out. A couple of the speed runners in the race are drawn out too so I am just hoping they might have to do a bit of work early and that will set it up for a horse like Superhard to come over the top of them late. After being with him first up I almost feel obliged to be with him again. I am also going to have something small on the ex-Weir galloper in Oberland. This galloper has turned in a couple of sparkling jump outs recently at Terang and Camperdown to have him ready for this first up assignment for Mitch Freedman. He looks to have come back really well. He draws gate five to get a smothering run in behind them off the speed and a bit like Superhard, if he is close enough in the run and getting clear air in the straight he is going to be finishing very strongly so happy to keep him on side at double figure odds off the strength of those two good jump outs.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Superhard and save with $15 the win on Oberland here!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 6

9:00pm

Suggested

Mirette (No.6), Etana (No.8), Arctic Shock (No.11) & Princess Jenni (No.13)

Dangers

Angelic Ruler (No.3) & Victory Kingdom (No.5)

This is one of the feature races of the night. It is over the mile for the three year old fillies and it has drawn together a very competitive line up. The main form reference certainly looks to be the race won by Spanish Whisper at Flemington two weeks ago and Victory Kingdom and Angelic Ruler who ran second and third in that race have come up pretty short in the market here. I found it a pretty tough race though and found myself not overly enthused to get involved with either of those two at the prices on offer. I am playing this race a little bit wide and hoping we can get something at odds to salute. Mirette comes through a completely different form line to most here having had two runs at Warrnambool and Echuca to kick off her campaign. She has won both of those races in very easy fashion and she is a filly that I have a lot of time for. Her run in the 1000 Guineas in the spring behind Amphitrite was outstanding. She was only second up off a freshen up into that race after breaking her maiden at Benalla the start prior. She was three wide and working for the whole race and was beaten just over two lengths. It was an excellent run in what has proved to be a pretty strong race. I think she was then at the end of her campaign when failing pretty miserably on Melbourne Cup Day as a well backed favourite behind Pohutukawa. Her two wins this time in have been good in particular her second up performance at Echuca. She got the job done first up at Warrnambool but last start at Echuca was an arrogant and dominant victory. She steps back up in class here and I am hoping she can really make a statement. She is going to need luck from the wide draw but Jordan Childs is riding well and I just like the fact she comes through a bit of a different form line so around the $7-8 I am happy to be with her. Arctic Shock is the other horse that I want to have something on who comes through a different form reference. This filly got to the 1600m last start at Pakenham for the first time and lapped it up. She was well backed at her fourth career start and got the job done impressively winning eased down by a tidy margin. They ran good time for the night and I wouldn’t be surprised if she could make a successful leap up in class here. She draws to get a good run just off the speed for Ben Melham and around the $20-30 mark I thought she was worth a ticket here. From the Spanish Whisper race the two horses I am backing are Etana and Princess Jenni. That was a bit of a funny day at Flemington, not too many horses were coming wide and making ground which made the run of Etana full of merit in my opinion. She was three and four wide and working for the entire race and stuck on strongly to only be beaten just over two lengths. I think with a more economical run in transit here up to the mile she can run a really good race. She draws well for Meech to push forward and be on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to be with her. Princess Jenni was first up in a pretty hot 1400m race there. She was also asked to come wide in the straight and I thought she got through the line quite nicely after I was initially a little disappointed with the run. Looking over the pattern of the day though and watching her go through the line I think it was a pass mark. She again will have to go back from the wide draw here but I am convinced she is a filly with real talent who will take benefit from that first up run. Ollie stays with her and she is another at double figure odds that I am happy to have something on here.

Betting strategy

I will have $25 the win on Mirette here! I will also have $20 the win on Etana, $15 the win on Princess Jenni and $10 the win on Arctic Shock!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:50pm

Suggested

Star Fall (No.3) & Miss Toorak Flyer (No.8)

Dangers

Miss Leonidas (No.7) & Josephine Sea (No.11)

Racing on Saturday amazingly on Golden Slipper Day in Sydney comes from Mornington as the main meeting in Victoria. I won’t bore anyone with my ranting but the fact that in Victoria we don’t race at a major city track on Golden Slipper Day is a bit mystifying. I was at Caulfield the year Pierro won the Golden Slipper and the atmosphere on course that day was amazing with people tuned into the big screen to watch the Sydney races while enjoying a good program at Caulfield. This is a pretty good program at Mornington, but punters want to be betting at major city tracks on big days so I think it is a missed opportunity. Every year I say I won’t bother betting at this meeting as like most punters I am not a big fan of Mornington as far as a punting venue goes but as per usual I have had a look at the fields and got pretty easily sucked in. I have found five races to bet into and here is hoping we can have a successful day down on the peninsula. I am kicking the day off in the second race of the day which is over the 1000m. The market has really narrowed this down to three main chances in Star Fall, Miss Leonidas and Miss Toorak Flyer. I would be somewhat surprised if the winner didn’t come from that trio. I must say I was a little bit surprised that Star Fall didn’t come up a more pronounced favourite and as such I think that is where a bit of an opportunity lies here. He is clearly a pretty handy racehorse. He strung together three pretty dominant wins over the summer months before a last start failure at Randwick behind the talented Sylvia’s Mother. He has been given a nice freshen up since then and back to the 1000m here I think he will be hard to hold out. Certainly that win in fast time at Caulfield two starts back on Boxing Day over Mystyko reads very well for a race of this nature. He draws a nice middle gate for Liam Riordan and looking at the speed drawn inside of him I think he pretty easily lands outside the leader or in front without working too hard to happy to be with him. I am saving on Miss Toorak Flyer who somehow has managed to get beat at her last two starts. She was very unlucky to not win at Moonee Valley two starts back where she went via Pascoe Vale Road on the home corner. She then looked to have the race all parcelled up at Flemington last start only to be run down by Swift Sis late on. We have seen that filly come out and win again last Saturday. From gate four here Miss Toorak Flyer looks to get the gun trail in behind the speed and for mine should just need a touch of luck to be right in the finish.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $3.20 for Star Fall with SportsBet might be good value come the time they jump! I will have $65 the win on him at that price and save with $30 the win on Miss Toorak Flyer!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 3

1:25pm

Suggested

Call It A Day (No.3) & Island Daze (No.4)

Dangers

Enigman (No.1) & Lauchetti (No.10)

This race is over the 1200m and I thought it looked to be a pretty skinny race on paper. Island Daze has come back from a spell in good order this time in and looks to find a very winnable race here. She won her first two runs back from a spell at Sandown and Moonee Valley in strong fashion before running in that Swift Sis/Miss Toorak Flyer race last start at Flemington. She led the field up there to the final stages in what was a good run. While she takes on the males here it looks an easier assignment than last start in my opinion. It is a race with a few well exposed tried and true commodities and she is a lightly raced four year old mare that we probably haven’t seen the best of yet. She has an excellent 1200m record and Jordan Childs just needs to negate that outside barrier and if he does that I think she is clearly the horse to beat so keen to be in her corner. Her main opposition looks as if it will come from Call It A Day. This locally trained galloper has a really good record around his home circuit and resumed with a strong effort at Cranbourne two weeks ago over the 1000m. He carried 62kgs there and snuck through along the rail and chased home Seven Year Reward who is a pretty handy sprinter on his day. The third horse in Sweet Snitty came out and won well at Pakenham on Thursday night so the form looks good. Call It A Day is certainly not a 1000m horse so the fact that he got so close there over that trip first up suggests he has come back well. Second up over the 1200m suits and he really does look the main danger to Island Daze here. Looking at the race I would be pretty surprised if one of the two weren’t winning and I think it looks a good two bet play.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Island Daze here and save with $30 the win on Call It A Day!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

2:05pm

Suggested

Miss Belisa (No.2), Tahitian Dancer (No.4) & Kootara (No.7)

Dangers

Private Lounge (No.1) & Music Bay (No.3)

This looks to be a race that has a little bit more depth. It is over the 1200m for the fillies and mares and it looks a pretty hot little race. Music Bay has come up favourite again after being rolled at a prohibitive price at Sandown first up. She is certainly an excellent chance here and will be suited by the step up to the 1200m but I am just going around her here. I have been really taken with the trials of Tahitian Dancer leading into this first up assignment and I think first up on her home track she might come ready to rumble on Saturday. Certainly her form last spring around the likes of Mystic Journey and Pohutukawa read very well for a race of this nature. She looks as if she has come back really well too if her trials are anything to go by. Her first trial was nice alongside Assertive Play and the most recent won was just utterly dominant. She won by two lengths sailing down the middle of the track untouched and with plenty in hand. I think she will be hard to beat here. I like the fact she has had the two trials to prepare her for the first up 1200m run. She draws gate two to get a lovely run just in behind the speed and I think if the breaks come her way she is going to be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her to roll the other favourite in Music Bay. Kootara is another local that is fit and racing well this time in. I had something on her first up at Sandown Hillside where she ran well after being wide early. She then really went on from that run to land some good bets in winning impressively at Pakenham second up. She just looks a filly that has come back really well this time in. She draws a middle gate for Michael Poy to get a good run off the speed and she gets in with just 54kgs after his claim. With the couple of runs under her belt I think she might be able to test some of these better credentialed runners who are early in their campaigns. She went through the line really nicely too at her first 1200m attempt last start so happy to be with her at double figure odds. Miss Belisa is a throw at the stumps bet for something small. She jumped out really nicely at Cranbourne recently and has performed well on the fresh side in the past. She draws a nice middle gate to get a good run on speed and around the $20 mark I thought she was worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

I am pretty keen Tahitian Dancer here and will have $55 the win on her! I will save with $20 the win on Kootara and $10 the win on Miss Belisa!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 7

4:10pm

Suggested

Trap For Fools (No.1) & Stars Of Carrum (No.5)

Dangers

High Bridge (No.8) & Hang Man (No.10)

This is the feature race of the day. It is the Mornington Cup over the mile and a half. It doesn’t look an overly strong edition this year and for that fact it was pretty hard to steer away from the class at the top of the weights in Trap For Fools. I really like this horse. He just gives his all wherever he runs. He gets out in front and rolls along in front and asks questions of his rivals. His form this time in has been excellent. I was really taken with how we went through the line first up at Caulfield over the mile behind Avilius and that run has made me stick with him at his last two. He beat all bar Avilius second up before running a brave third in the Australian Cup two weeks ago. Surprisingly looking at his stats he has never won over the mile and a half but the way he is racing currently gives me every indication that he is actually looking for that longer trip. For mine he is clearly the best horse in the race, there doesn’t look like there is a lot of speed engaged that is going to oppose him for that early lead and if he can roll along to the beat of his own drum out in front he is surely going to be very hard to get past. It looks a very winnable race for him given the class of horses he has been racing against not only this campaign but back in the spring and I am happy to be in his corner. I think Stars Of Carrum could be his fly in the ointment. The three year old is racing well this time in and there is no doubt at all that he is looking for this mile and a half trip. He had three good runs to kick off his campaign at a mile or less before going to the Valley last Friday night over the 2040m and running an excellent race behind Global Exchange in the Alistair Clark. He was either going to the Rosehill Guineas today to take on The Autumn Sun or this race and I personally reckon that this is a wise move. He gets in with 54kgs for Craig Newitt, his run in the Derby in the spring shows he will lap up the trip and I think he can run a big race here so happy to save on him behind the favourite Trap For Fools.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Trap For Fools here and save with $25 the win on Stars Of Carrum!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 8

4:50pm

Suggested

Fastnet Tempest (No.4), Streets Of Avalon (No.9), Manolo Blahniq (No.10) & Milwaukee (No.14)

Dangers

Bons Away (No.3), Glenall (No.8) & Bel Sonic (No.17)

This is the feature sprint race of the day. It is the Hareeba Stakes over the 1200m. It has drawn together a big competitive field. It is wide open with plenty of chances. Manolo Blahniq comes into this race off a freshen up on his home track and has plenty to like about him for mine here. He raced really well through the summer months. He kicked the campaign off with an excellent run at Pakenham over an unsuitable 1000m before beating all bar Native Soldier at Caulfield on Boxing Day. He then went to Flemington and despite racing wide proved far too good in the Chester Manifold before having no luck at all at Caulfield at his most recent run. He has had a freshen up since then and this race just looks to set up nicely for him. He stays down in the weights with just 54kgs but with plenty of speed on up front he should get a lovely run back off the speed from a middle to wide gate and I can see him being really strong late and having the last crack at them. I reckon this might have been a bit of a target race for him on his home track so keen to be in his corner. I am keeping another local on side in Streets Of Avalon who is just races so well this campaign. He is pretty easy to like. He gets up on speed, makes his own luck and often proves pretty hard to get past. His effort last Saturday at Flemington to only be beaten by Widgee Turf and Hellova Street was excellent after sitting outside the leader the whole way. Providing he hasn’t taken too much ill effect from that run and can back up here dropping back to the 1200m he is going to be hard to beat again. He will roll forward from a middle gate and with those recent 1400m runs under his belt he will certainly prove pretty hard to get past so happy to be with him. I am also going to keep a couple of resuming runners on side. The first of those is Fastnet Tempest. He is a bit of an enigma this horse but a pretty talented one on his day. His recent jump out at Flemington without the blinkers on was quite sharp. He got through the line very nicely showing a nice turn of foot late. He gets the blinkers on for race day here and I think he might run a mighty race fresh. He draws a nice middle gate to get that good smothering run off the speed and with the likelihood of strong speed up front he might be the one that is coming out of the pack having the last shot at them. Around the $20-25 mark I think he is well worth a ticket. The other horse I am going to have something on is Milwaukee. This horse always runs a good race fresh. He gets down in the weights here from a good draw, has jumped out well enough and the Mike Moroney stable is going really well in recent weeks. His 1200m record is excellent and I think he will be up on speed getting the right run just behind the leaders and in the finish with a touch of luck so happy to be with him around the $15-20 mark also.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Manolo Blahniq here! I will also have $20 the win on Streets Of Avalon, $15 the win on Fastnet Tempest and $10 the win on Milwaukee!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

12:30pm

Suggested

Resin (No.2), Serene Miss (No.6) & Into The Abyss (No.12)

Dangers

She Knows (No.1) & Avantage (No.3)

A salivating day of racing. I can’t wait. As per usual for Golden Slipper Day in Sydney, it has been raining. The track is currently in the heavy range but the forecast does look a little more promising as I write this on Friday morning for Friday and Saturday so I would anticipate that we would get into the soft range come race day. The rail is out three metres which is a rail position that can lend itself to play a bit towards the inside. Certainly over the last couple of years the rail hasn’t been a bad spot to be on Golden Slipper Day but it will require close watching early in the day. Speaking of early in the day, I am kicking off in the first race which is for the fillies and mares over the 1200m. This is a good competitive race. Resin has shown a liking for soft conditions in her career so far and her first up run at Randwick last start when just touched off by Winter Bride and Spright suggests she has come back in good order this time around. She had the nice drop on the leaders there in that race but they went very hard and compounded early in the straight which left her in front a fair way from home. Given she was first up I think that just left her a little vulnerable for the other two mares to run her down. Providing she has gone on from that first up run and I see no reason why she wouldn’t have, then this looks a good race for her second up. She draws wide, so J-Mac’s tactics early will be interesting but I think if he gets them right she is probably the horse they all have to beat so happy to be with her. Serene Miss comes into this race second up after chasing home Renewal first up and I actually thought the run was quite good. She carried a big weight there and got a long way back out of her ground but got through the line nicely late after having to switch across heels at the top of the straight to get to the outside. Her last 100m was most impressive to my eye working through the line strongly. She draws nicely in gate three here to take up a more prominent position in running. She has an excellent soft track record, is unbeaten second up and gets nice weight relief here. I think there is a fair bit to like about her and happy to keep her on side at double figure odds. Into The Abyss is another horse I want to back in the race. This filly raced well without a lot of luck in the spring in Melbourne. Certainly that form around the likes of Sunlight and Pohutukawa reads pretty well for a race of this nature though. She has ran well on soft ground too which is important. Of most importance though is probably the fact that she trialled really nicely recently at Randwick. She sat back last but really finished the race off strongly late. She draws well in gate five here to get a gun run just off the speed and I think she is going to come to the races ready to rumble first up on Saturday and for that fact I am keen to be in her corner.

Betting strategy

I will have $50 the win on Resin here and save with $20 the win on Into The Abyss and $15 the win on Serene Miss!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 3

1:45pm

Suggested

Big Blue (No.6), Midterm (No.9) & Shraaoh (No.10)

Dangers

Big Duke (No.1) & Vin De Dance (No.4)

This was a race that I was originally not overly keen to bet into but on closer inspection found that two horses really did stand out to me. Shraaoh certainly looks to have his hoof on the till here at his third run back from a spell. This galloper made a really good impression when winning the 2800m race at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day at his Australian debut and was immediately spelled post that run. He didn’t do a lot first up when down the track behind Seaway but improved sharply last start when getting up in distance to the 2000m. He hit the line strongly but just failed to run down Hiyaam who led all the way. That run should have brought him on nicely for this third up assignment over the mile and a half. While his soft track form doesn’t read well, the fact he was so dominant in the heavy winning on Melbourne Cup Day eases that worry. He stays down in the weights from gate one for Kerrin McEvoy who is a master jockey in these staying races and I think he is the one they all have to beat. Keen to be with him. Midterm from the Lloyd Williams yard is the interesting runner here coming up from Melbourne. I am a bit of the opinion that the Melbourne staying form is superior to the Sydney staying form and if that comes to fruition here than Midterm is going to be very hard to hold out. I think Lloyd might have found a good race for this galloper here. He was well backed at Caulfield first up when finding the line nicely behind Sikandarabad and his form last campaign was also good through the spring. He has shown a liking for soft ground in his career which is probably why the stable has elected to come here over Mornington. He gets the blinkers on for the first time for Jamie Kah and he just shapes as being very hard to beat in my opinion. I think the $6-7 on offer about him is an excellent price. Happy to be with him. I am also going to have something small on my old favourite Big Blue. I reckon I might see him down at Warrnambool in five and a half weeks time but while the tracks are wet here up in Sydney he can still run a race on the flat. We saw him win at Randwick at big odds two starts back and he comes into this race first up with a hurdle trial under his belt. He will get up on speed and roll along at his own leisure and who knows might take some running down. At big odds I have to have something small on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Shraaoh here! I am going for a good result with Midterm and having $30 the win on him locking in the $6.50 available! I will also have $10 the win on Big Blue!

Race Outlay

$95

Race 6 - Ranvet Stakes

3:45pm

Suggested

Sikandarabad (No.8), Danzdanzdance (No.10) & Unforgotten (No.12)

Dangers

Avilius (No.2) & He’s Eminent (No.5)

Obviously the Autumn Sun and Winx don’t represent betting races so we skip straight through to the third Group One of the day which is the Ranvet Stakes over the 2000m. I found this a terribly difficult race. Mainly for the fact I just don’t know what to make of Avilius’ last run in the Australian Cup. It was all set up for him to deliver the knock out blow. He tracked through along the fence, the gap appeared and he looked as if he was going to go through and win easily. He just didn’t ping though. In the end it was a battling and pretty disappointing fifth. He has come up favourite again here on Saturday and while he may come out and win I just can’t get keen on him as favourite. It is not a race I want to play too heavily in. Unforgotten probably didn’t get to the heights I expected her too last campaign in the spring. Everything looked to be tracking along really well with her until she copped a bit of an ugly steer from Michael Walker in the Caulfield Stakes and her campaign was aborted. Prior to that she had been a dominant winner of the Chelmsford and run an enormous race in the Epsom. Her two runs this time in she has chased home Winx so that form in itself is always a bit hard to line up. She has given the impression she is looking for 2000m though. I think this is a race where she really gets her chance to win a Group One at weight for age level. She loves Rosehill having won three of four here and third up from a spell she should be just about at her top for this race, Hugh Bowman rides and I just feel she might be the horse capable of really stepping up and making a statement here so happy to be in her corner. I am keeping the New Zealand mare in Danzdanzdance on side. She will certainly want the track to stay in the soft to heavy range. She strung together two Group One wins in December before having about six weeks between runs leading into another Group One race in early February where she was given a torrid ride and was beaten as an odds on favourite. She was again a bit wide last start and made a long sustained run when just touched off by Melody Belle in a two horse war two weeks ago. She should have no issues getting a good run here from gate one for Opie Bosson and while that New Zealand form can be sometimes hard to line up I don’t think this is a vintage Group One field so I think she gets her chance and I am happy to have her on side. Sikandarabad is a horse that is really improving all the time and his form this time in has been excellent. He got a long way back in the Australian Cup and hit the line strongly on a day where it was hard to make ground form too far back. He draws well here for Mark Zahra and from that draw should be able to sit closer in the run. If that is the case I think he can be in the finish and at good double figure odds I am happy to have something on him.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Unforgotten, $20 the win on Danzdanzdance and $10 the win on Sikandarabad!

Race Outlay

$60

Race 7 - Golden Slipper

4:30pm

Suggested

Microphone (No.2), Cosmic Force (No.5) & Loving Gaby (No.16)

Dangers

Lyre (No.7), Tenley (No.9) & Exhilarates (No.15)

This is the big one of the day. It is the Group One Golden Slipper for the two year olds over the 1200m. It is an outstanding race the 2019 edition. There aren’t too many two year olds in Australia that I can think of and say “gee I wish they were in the Slipper”. I think they are all here. It promises to be a great race. It is a race I am quite bullish on too. It is pretty rare to come into a big Group One race with a capacity field like this and be too confident but I really to think that Microphone and Cosmic Force are the two here. I think they are both going to be really hard to beat. Cosmic Force is the horse fresh in everyone’s mind after last week’s seven length demolition job in the Pago Pago here on a heavy track. As the race was unfolding in the straight and he was drawing clear I was thinking to myself, gee this horse is going to take some beating next Saturday. Luckily those thoughts and my sobriety last Saturday led to me jumping on and backing him for the Golden Slipper so I am riding him home at $13 for this race. The reaction of James McDonald post race also suggested that the horse had given him a great feel. He said words to that effect. There is a slight knock that he is going to need those heavy conditions to reproduce what he did last Saturday. I am not convinced by that. It certainly won’t hinder his chances but I think this is just a case of a horse coming good at the right time. The Snowden team know how to get a horse to peak on this day and they may very well have just got this colt to peak at the right time. He draws gate two for Mark Zahra to get the gun run just off the speed and we know the rail has been the place to be in the Slipper in recent years. I think from there he stays in the first six in running and if the gaps come his way he is going to be very strong late. I think he is the one they all have to beat, I am pretty comfortable to be on him at the good odds and I am hoping he can do the job on Saturday. As impressive as he was last Saturday at his start before Microphone still ran straight past him so I can’t not be in the corner of that horse also. His two wins since being beaten in the Blue Diamond Preview have been outstanding. The temptation must have been there after his blistering win down the straight in the Talindert to run him in the Blue Diamond. The stable stuck to their guns though and brought him back to Sydney where he landed good bets in defeating Cosmic Force. The thing about this colt is that at his last two starts he has been doing it on the clock. The box I needed to see ticked last start was him running a strong 1200m and he did that. Like Cosmic Force here he draws down near the rail in gate one. I am not concerned by that for the reasons mentioned above. Typically Golden Slipper fields break up and if Bowman holds a spot on the rail in third or fourth and the run comes at the top of the straight this horse is going to take it and be pretty hard to beat. I am really confident one of the two can do the job and happy to be with Microphone also. The one other horse I am going to back in the race is Loving Gaby. She is just the untapped filly that I am not sure we have seen the best of. She won well on her debut when well backed before having no luck at all in the Blue Diamond. I am not saying she definitely would have won, but she would have went close. Her trial at Randwick last week was very nice. I love the way she quickened when asked for an effort there. She is going to be back off the speed from the wide draw but is the one I can see really storming down the outside late. I want to have her on side at double figure odds. There are certainly other chances in the race. I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Yes Yes Yes, Time To Reign, Lyre, Tenley, Pin Sec or Exhilarates but I really do think there is a sense of timing about Cosmic Force and Microphone that they are the two coming good at the right time. Backing them both and saving on Loving Gaby in what is shaping up as a great Golden Slipper.

Betting strategy

Like I said I am already on Cosmic Force at double figures but if I wasn't I would have $40 the win on him, $30 the win on Microphone and $10 the win on Loving Gaby!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - The Galaxy

5:10pm

Suggested

Ball Of Muscle (No.2), Pierata (No.3), Graff (No.6) & Encryption (No.10)

Dangers

Redzel (No.1) & Nature Strip (No.4)

This is the final Group One of the day. It is the Group One Galaxy over the 1100m and this is another great race. The confidence levels certainly aren’t as high here though let me tell you. I found this race just about impossible. Graff to me kind of ended up feeling like the safe bet in the race. You know you are probably going to get something to cheer about at some stage in the home straight. I was cheering in the Newmarket when he loomed up to Sunlight but she was too strong and fought him off in the run to the line. His run before that in the Lightning was excellent. He comes through two top sprint races where he has performed at a very high level so I think that all bodes well for him here coming back to Sydney. He gets in with just 52kgs on his back, he draws well for Brenton Avdulla in gate two to land just off the speed and I think whichever way you look at it he is going to be in the finish so happy to be with him. I thought the horse in the race that was big overs who also comes through the Melbourne sprint races was Encryption. This horse ran second in the Oakleigh Plate and wasn’t beaten far in the Newmarket last start. I was surprised he come up such big odds here. He gets in with no weight on his back for Craig Williams and drawn out he will go back and do no work in the run and hopefully have the last shot at them. At the $20 or so on offer I thought he was definitely worth a ticket. Pierata is the real interesting runner for mine. He just gave away far too big a start in the Canterbury Classic first up behind Trapeze Artist. Once that horse was able to get away with murder up front and Pierata was back last and spotting him a big start it was near impossible for Pierata to be any chance of winning. His sectionals were actually really good but he just gave away too big a start. He comes back to the 1200m here but in a bigger field with a more genuine tempo up front he should be able to blend into the race at the right time and not be giving away such an impossible start. He has a really good second up record and looking back through his form, his best form would see him go very close here. I think he is really good odds around the $8-10 mark. He handles soft going and I think you will see him run a much more prominent race here on Saturday. Happy to be with him. How can you not have something on Ball Of Muscle? He did the job for us last start just holding off Redzel and his form over the last six months or so and in his last two campaigns has just been outstanding. He loves the 1100m and while he is in this sort of form I just have to have something on him again at double figure odds. He actually meets Redzel better at the weights for beating him, so he has to be some chance here. Redzel and Nature Strip are obviously the two main dangers and well found in the market. I just don’t know what to do with either of them. Redzel was stiff not to win two weeks ago but will have to be at his best here under the handicap conditions while you just don’t know what you’re going to get with Nature Strip. It is a fascinating race. Graff the safe bet for me but expecting Pierata to run a big race and I think Encryption and Ball Of Muscle look over the odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Graff, $20 the win on Pierata and $10 the win on both Ball Of Muscle and Encryption!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 2

1:57pm

Suggested

Mullaghmore (No.2), Lucadeal (No.5) & Missed The Alarm (No.7)

Dangers

Tatcee (No.1)

Racing in Brisbane this Saturday returns to Eagle Farm. It is very hard getting a read on Brisbane races early with so many big fields and so many emergencies. Quite a few horses don’t have any jockeys engaged so we are guessing a little bit in many respects to how races will line up and play out. Given I have been up since 4am writing these previews I am going to whip through Eagle Farm pretty quickly. In positive news the weather is looking a lot kinder than what it was last weekend and we should be racing on a good track. I am kicking the day off in the second race which is over the 2200m for the three year olds. The main form reference here is obviously the race won by Rocknavar over the 1800m two weeks ago. He just got the better of Mullaghmore in that race and Mullaghmore is the horse that looks hardest to beat here. He carried the field up to the runaway leader in Tatcee there last start and fought on tenaciously when Rocknavar loomed up to go straight past him. Mullaghmore really fought back strongly though and only narrowly went down. He draws gate five here and should roll forward and be up on speed. The way he fought on last start suggests the 2200m won’t be an issue and I expect him to be hard to beat. Lucadeal got the job done at the Gold Coast last start in dour fashion. He just looks as if he will stay all day. He is in his first preparation and has got better at each and every run so far. He looked under pressure coming round the home turn last start but just kept plugging away and really got into his work over the final furlong to pick up the leader and win running away. He draws in gate one here to box seat and providing he can get rolling you know he will run the trip right out so happy to be with him. Missed The Alarm got a long way back at Eagle Farm last start behind Rocknavar but hit the line in good fashion. She is another that looks as if she will lap up this longer trip so keeping her on side at double figure odds.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Mullaghmore, $20 the win on Lucadeal and $10 the win on Missed The Alarm here!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

4:00pm

Suggested

Calzini (No.5) & Usmanov (No.14)

Dangers

Jami Lady (No.1) & Pizonie (No.8)

This race is over the 1000m for the three year olds and again we have a case of a field with eight emergencies which just makes it impossible to get too much of an early read on the race. Usmanov with a couple of early scratchings is now guaranteed a start. He should prove hard to beat. He won well on debut before taking on a handy race at the Sunshine Coast at just his second start where he was just run down late. He has trialled well in preparation for this first up run. Jeff Lloyd rides for the powerful Edmonds stable and I anticipate him getting up on the speed first up over the 1000m and being hard to run down. If he has improved from that first preparation he is going to be hard to beat here. Calzini is the definite danger in the race. This filly strung together a series of good runs over the late spring and early summer and resumes from a two month spell here. Her last run before going for a spell at Eagle Farm she had no luck whatsoever. She should have finished a lot closer. She looks a filly with genuine talent. She is drawn out but will go back anyway and if the speed goes right on up front and sets it up for a horse to swoop from the back I feel she might be the one so keeping her on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Usmanov here and save with $25 the win on Calzini!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 8

5:53pm

Suggested

Order Again (No.2) & Impasse (No.10)

Dangers

Sword Of Justice (No.3) & Jaminzah (No.5)

This race is over the 1500m. Order Again and Impasse were two horses I was keen on last start when I took on Tumbler stepping up to the 1400m. Low and behold Tumbler bombed down the outside and just tipped out Impasse and Order Again. This time around Order Again and Tumbler take on an in form Sword Of Justice who has strung together two consecutive wins leading all the way Doomben. I think here at Eagle Farm Sword Of Justice might find things a little more difficult. Order Again should certainly strip fitter for the first up run. He loomed to win there but just didn’t quite finish the race off. Second up to the 1500m on the bigger Eagle Farm track he looks well placed. He draws ideally for Larry Cassidy to take up a position just off the speed and providing he has gone on from that first up run I think he will be hard to hold out here so keen to be with him. Impasse is racing really well. He was probably a bit stiff here a couple of weeks ago. He had to take the shortcuts up the inside part of the track which probably wasn’t the best part of the track by that time of the day. Tumbler was coming down the middle of the track with full momentum and was able to get the better of him. Impasse draws out here but should be primed and ready to go at his third run back from a spell. He is a winner over this 1500m trip and providing he can get the right run in transit I think he should be hard to hold out so happy to be with him also in what looks a good two bet play to hopefully roll the favourite Sword Of Justice.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Order Again here and save with $35 the win on Impasse!

Race Outlay

$75

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