Select a Race Meeting

Race 1

11:40am

Suggested

The Pugilist (No.3), Ethical Solution (No.9) & St Edward’s Crown (No.11)

Dangers

Independent Road (No.2) & La Lucciola (No.7)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Flemington this Saturday for what certainly looks to be a pretty challenging winter meeting. The weather has turned it on in Melbourne this week and we will be racing on a dry track with Flemington likely to play perfect as per normal. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1400m. This is an interesting race. I have to admit when I did the form initially I was pretty confident that I had found one that might come up good odds in St Edward’s Crown. This filly ran well on debut at Seymour over the 1200m in a fast race for the day and there was a big gap to the second horse. She comes from the Shane Fliedner stable which with no disrespect to Shane isn’t one of the big stables in the state. There was a big gap to the third horse in that race and I thought “yup, I really might have found one at double figure odds here”. Clearly I wasn’t the only one as when I went and looked at the odds after doing the form she had come up around the $6 mark which is roundabouts where I had her marked. I probably had her a fraction shorter. Like I said, the run on debut was good. The winner was just able to build full momentum rounding the home turn while St Edward’s Crown was baulked for a run and had to wait until they straightened to get fully wound up. I am not sure it would have made a difference to the result, but she still went through the line well suggesting the 1400m will suit here and the big gap to the third horse is a good sign typically. She draws a nice middle to wide gate here for Joe Bowditch to settle off the speed and I think with natural improvement from that debut run she can be very competitive here. Happy to be with her. I am turning to Adelaide form for the other two horses I am backing in the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Pugilist turns out the best horse in this race as he looks to have a fair bit of ability. He was beaten as a short priced favourite on debut and then didn’t have the best of luck last start when held up entering the straight. He had to come across the heels of runners and got to the outside while the leader kicked clear and despite closing late just failed. The slight concern with this horse is that both runs have been over 1050m and he makes a sharp leap to the 1400m here. In saying that though both his runs have contained merit, he draws well here and he gives the impression 1400m will suit. For that reason I am going to keep him on side. Ethical Solution comes through might well be a pretty good race on debut. She box seated there and just got left a little flat footed when they sprinted in front. She seemed to hit her straps late I thought when getting to the outside of runners in clear air. The third horse in that race came out and won well last Saturday and I thought she went through the line just as well. She gives the impression 1400m will suit off that 1200m debut, she draws to take up a good position on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on St Edward's Crown here, $25 the win on The Pugilist and $20 the win on Ethical Solution and I am going to lock int he $10 with QLD TAB Fixed Odds about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:50pm

Suggested

Miss Leonidas (No.3) & Superhard (No.6)

Dangers

Bandipur (No.2), Moonlover (No.5) & Smart Coupe (No.7)

This race is down the straight over the 1000m. This is a pretty deep race. There are a few winning chances here. Miss Leonidas looks to get the right set up here. I am hoping we get $3+ for her on the day and if that is the case I think she represents a good bet. Her three runs this time in have been excellent. She just missed at Mornington first up before landing the prize at good odds at Caulfield second up when defeating the subsequent Wangoom winner in I Am Someone. She then made the leap to the 1200m at Caulfield last start and showed great speed but was just left wanting in the final stages as a couple of strong 1200m horses in Iconoclasm and Miss Vixen got over the top of her. I think back to the 1000m here up the straight drawn wide where she can pretty much just run fast down the outside rail she should prove hard to catch. She was very good in her only run down the straight around this time last year and I think if she can maintain the level of form she has shown this time in here in this race she will be hard to run down. Keen to be with her. I think if she is to be beat it will be because she gets the wobbles up late and something storms over the top of her and Superhard is probably the horse I am most nervous of doing that. For that reason I will keep him on side. He won well for us over this track and distance at good odds first up and then he has just been fair at his last couple at Moonee Valley and Caulfield. That first up win was just so dominant though and the fact he returns to the same set up here, drawn out sitting off a strong speed I think he might be capable of replicating a similar performance. If he does he will be hard to hold out so as I said, I want him on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Miss Leonidas and saving with $30 the win on Superhard!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

1:30pm

Suggested

Seberate (No.2) & Thunderdome (No.11)

Dangers

Big Night Out (No.3), Junipal (No.7) & Zaidin (No.12)

This race is over the 1400m for the three year olds. I am pretty keen on one here in Seberate. On a pretty challenging day at Flemington he was probably the galloper that I most wanted to back on the program. His three runs this time in have all been excellent. He was a dominant winner first up at Bendigo when leading all the way before beating all bar the exciting Tarwin second up at Caulfield. Last start in Adelaide things just didn’t work out for him. He jumped well but had plenty of company kick up inside of him early and as a result he was left working out three wide most of the way while the leader East Indiaman led all the way. That race was run in fast time and he looks well placed three weeks into this run. He draws ideally in gate two to get a gun run on the speed and he just looks extremely well weighted with just 52.5kgs on his back. I think he just needs to ensure he holds a position from that inside gate and then ensure he has clear galloping room on straightening and he will most likely be winning. Around the $4+ mark I think he is an excellent bet and wouldn’t be surprised if he started closer to favourite by the time they jumped. Keen. Thunderdome is the horse I am going to save on in the race. I thought he was good last week. He led the field up and fought on well behind Zoutori over the mile and that followed two good runs prior to kick this campaign off. I just though with that mile run under his belt that Steve Baster might try and test a few of these out and run this along up front. He is on the back up, had the run over the longer trip and Baster is an excellent front running rider so I feel he might make a few of these vulnerable. Around the $9-10 mark I am happy to save on him. Junipal is the one I am nervous about. He showed ability last campaign but I still can’t put my finger on just how good he is. He had a recent Kyneton jump out (thanks to MugLogic for pointing that out) where he went OK but I couldn’t read enough into it to back him. I would watch the market though. If good support arrives on the day following on from the fact that he has been pretty firm since markets open then he is probably worth throwing a saving bet on. I will just wait to see what the market does though before I decide on that. As I said though, I am pretty keen on Seberate here I think he is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $4.40 with BetEasy is as good as you will get about Seberate so will lock that in and have $60 the win on him saving with $15 the win on Thunderdome!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Wham (No.6) & I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.12)

Dangers

Declares War (No.1) & Igniter (No.9)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and it is a tough race. I think Wham looks ready to win. His form this time in has been really strong and he is racing like a horse that is looking for this 2000m trip. He got the job done in good fashion first up at Sale which was the first sign that he was going to be in for a pretty solid campaign. He then went on to run well at huge odds in the Bendigo Guineas where he was arguably unlucky not to win. I would have kicked myself had he run a drum that day or won at $91 as I was going to back him and then stopped myself. He then had a bit of a flat run behind Tarwin at his next start before clearly relishing getting up to the mile last start where again you can argue with different luck in running he could have potentially reversed that result on Tarwin. I just think if Tarwin was in this race he would be close to odds on and we are getting $7 about Wham here. He draws out but that doesn’t concern me here on the big track as he will go back and be given plenty of time to wind into his work and I am actually looking forward to seeing him be able to build full momentum on this big track. I think around that $7 mark he is an excellent bet. Keen to be with him. I had something on I’m Dun Dreamin’ last Saturday in the race won by Zoutori and I thought it was a pleasing return. The way the race was run didn’t give him too much chance back inside horses off the speed but I thought he got through the line quite nicely. He is on the quick back up here and rises sharply in distance but I think on to the bigger track and with the wider draw he gets a better setup. I was pretty surprised at the odds he come up in the race. He is around the $30 mark in the early markets and at that price I think he is well worth a ticket here in what is a wide open race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wham here and save with $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' and will lock in the $26 about the latter ($31 if you can get on with Bet365)!

Race Outlay

$45

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Mr Marathon Man (No.3), One More Try (No.9) & Spanner Head (No.11)

Dangers

Husson Eagle (No.5) & Masculino (No.7)

This race is over the 1400m here and I am very much looking forward to seeing the return of One More Try who is a mare I have quite a bit of time for. In what was a pretty lean spring carnival for me last year, in particular Melbourne Cup week, she was a rare highlight when winning as my best bet on Cup Day. That was her third win from as many starts in that campaign and she really went through her grades nicely. She won well first up at Geelong over the 1500m before going to Bendigo and landing nice bets to win second up there. That was the win that told me she was a good horse. She was back off the speed and really rounded her rivals up with ease for a dominant win. She then went to Flemington and got the job done in trying conditions on Cup Day. She just looks a lightly raced mare that is still very much on an upward spiral. She has won five of ten starts and finds a race with a few well exposed types here. He recent trial at Cranbourne suggests to me she has come back well, she draws well here with no weight on her back to get a lovely smother just in behind the speed and if she has improved again since last campaign we might see a pretty good horse in action on Saturday. Keen to be with her. I think Spanner Head is the danger. She was good first up in that Vobis race behind Twitchy Frank at Caulfield. She was back off the speed in the small field that day while the winner Twitchy Frank really controlled things up on speed. Second up at a track she has performed really well at in the past looks a nice set up. She draws well, she also gets in really light at the weights and looks primed to run a big race so keen to be with her. The other horse I want to have something on at big odds is Mr Marathon Man. This bloke jumped out OK prior to resuming in The Wangoom at Warrnambool but the market suggested he was going to need the run that day and he ran accordingly. He was back and never really looked like winning. I thought watching the replay again though that he actually went through the line quite well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a much improved race here second up. The step up in distance is obviously a big plus here and he also draws nicely to take up a much more prominent position in running. I think he might be over the odds here around that $20 mark and as such happy to be with him. The other runner that I am a bit wary of in the race is Masculino. I naturally thought 1400m would be too short for him but his recent trial was quite sharp and he has been kept pretty safe in early markets but he is the one I am going to risk.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on One More Try here, $30 the win on Spanner Head and $15 the win on Mr Marathon Man!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

11:30am

Suggested

Espinola (No.2) & Kubrick (No.4)

Dangers

Diamond Thunder (No.1) & Hulk (No.3)

Racing in Sydney returns to Rosehill this Saturday for what is also a pretty challenging meeting. There are a few deep races and like Flemington I am playing a fair few of them pretty wide. The rail is in the true position and we will be racing on a good track so I would expect horses up on speed would certainly not be disadvantaged in anyway but given we haven’t raced here for some time it will pay to watch the early races closely. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is over the 1200m for the two year olds. This is an interesting race as there looks to be really good early pressure up front and for that reason I thought it might set it up for a horse sitting just off the pace to be really strong at the end of 1200m. For that reason I ended up siding with Espinola and Kubrick. We had a pretty strong tip for Espinola at Wagga when he won on the first day of their carnival which was the last day of The Bool carnival. The win in my opinion was most impressive. He didn’t begin quickly and was second last into stride. He was able to muster speed though and kick through to get into a good position coming to the home turn. He then was able to ease into clear galloping room and really let down strongly to win running away. The trial prior to that first up win was very good and all the signs are that he has come back a much better horse this time in. He draws nicely here in gate three to again get a good smother in behind the speed and I am hopeful that if a few of the leaders overdo it up front that he will be the one coming at them with the last shot. Around the $7-8 mark I am happy to be with him. Kubrick got the job done impressively on debut at Cranbourne and I respect the Waller decision to now switch him up to Sydney. He sat in behind the speed that night at Cranbourne and wore down a well fancied Mick Price two year old and there was a good gap to the third horse. I liked the way he pinned the ears back late and really charged through the line. He should be suited here by the likely good tempo up front and he looks like he will relish stepping up to the 1200m. He draws to get a good trailing run in behind them for Glyn Schofield and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kubrick and $30 the win on Espinola here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Green Reign (No.6), Plonka (No.10) & Wyendra (No.13)

Dangers

Mick The Hat (No.1) & Elm Court (No.9)

This is an interesting highway here over the 1200m. It looks like we might have a few handy types going around in this race. There are quite a few lightly raced horses showing some good promise and they are the horses I am focusing on here rather than the horses that have been punching around in these highways for a while now. The Highway King Matty Dunn brings a couple of runners down from Murwillumbah and one of those is Green Reign who looks a pretty exciting prospect. He has only had the one start for one win in his career back in December at Ipswich and hasn’t raced since. He started a $1.65 favourite that day and came from off the speed to get the cash. He resumed here as a gelding and has had two trials to get him up to the mark and ready for this first up assignment. The most recent one on his home track at Murwillumbah he easily had his rivals covered and won the trial with plenty in hand. I think he might be pretty smart and with Glyn on from a middle gate he looks hard to hold out. Happy to be with him. Plonka makes the journey down from Coffs Harbour and he also looks to be a promising young galloper given what we have seen of him at his first two starts. He started a heavily backed favourite on debut at Grafton and was just touched off before going to Tamworth and being backed as if unbeatable at his second start and bolting in. Ben Looker stays with him here after riding him at his first two starts and he will no doubt want to have him up on speed and in the firing line for most of the way. If that is the place to be early on this program then Plonka might be pretty hard to run past so I want to be saving on him. The other horse I will have something small on is Wyendra. This lightly raced mare returned from a long break with a dominant win at Canberra first up. She had shown ability in previous campaigns and looks to have come back well. She draws to get a good run just off the speed and if they do go a bit mad up front then she might be the one who can pounce on them late. Around the $15-20 mark I think she is worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

It looks a strong lead for Green Reign with Matty Dunn scratching the stable mate! I will have $60 the win on Green Reign and save with $25 the win on Plonka and $10 the win on Wyendra!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

1:55pm

Suggested

Above And Beyond (No.3), Oxford Tycoon (No.4) & Transmitter (No.8)

Dangers

Call Me Royal (No.6), Hostwin Supreme (No.13) & Burning Crown (No.14)

This is a wide open race here. I actually wrestled a little bit with myself over whether to include this race in the preview or not. Given the horses I have come up with are all pretty decent prices I am going to bet as we shouldn’t have to outlay too much to get a decent return. There are quite a few different form lines coming together and that gives us a pretty wide open race. The runner that certainly intrigues me most is Oxford Tycoon. This is a three year old that has shown good ability in his short career to date. In his debut campaign he was competitive in some of the better two year old races around the likes of Sandbar and Santos. He then resumed later in that season following those two good runs to kick off his career in stakes grade and absolutely walked in at Wyong. That signalled to people that he was a pretty handy horse and at his next start he went around a well supported second favourite in the Rosebud. He just didn’t fire a shot that day and finished last and was immediately spelled. Given we haven’t seen him at the races since that would suggest there was an issue. He has had two trials leading into this first up run and gone nicely at both of them without being spectacular. That was what was holding me back from really launching into him here. The trials just didn’t wow me enough. He has had two of them though which suggests to me that he is going to arrive here pretty close to the mark. He draws ideally for Jay Ford to land on speed and I think if all is well with him and he runs to his best, that $7 is probably going to look a pretty good price. Happy to be with him. Transmitter is first up here and has shown some good ability in her career. She went through her grades quite nicely last campaign winning three of her four starts and she looks to be a filly on the improve. Her first up win to break her maiden at Kembla Grange was quite dominant in fact. She has trialled well leading into this suggesting she has come back well and providing Rachel King can offset that wide draw then I think she will be right in the finish. Happy to keep her on side around the $9-10 mark. She has shown speed in her recent trials but given the abundance of speed engaged here I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ridden quiet from that draw and she might be the one having the last shot at them. Above And Beyond is the horse that might improve sharply here. Not a lot went right for him first up on ANZAC Day. He was heavily backed which suggests he has come back well but didn’t show enough speed out of the gates to cross the leaders and was left wide and working. He stuck on fairly but never really looked like winning. He draws an inside gate here so hopefully he can jump and show enough speed to lead. If that is the case and he can do so without using up too much energy early he might be hard to run down. At double figure odds I think he is worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Oxford Tycoon here pretty confident he starts shorter than $7 so happy to lock that price in! If he drifts it is probably a sign we are in trouble! I will have $20 the win on Transmitter and $15 the win on Above And Beyond!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 6

2:35pm

Suggested

Reelem In Ruby (No.9) & Constellations (No.14)

Dangers

Toryjoy (No.6), Jen Rules (No.10) & Alnaas (No.11)

This race is for the fillies and mares over the 1400m and it looks a pretty good race. Reelem In Rubyhas come up pretty short in the market and it is easy to see why based on the way she has returned this time in. She has only had the five starts but is already building up a very impressive record. Last campaign she won well first up before taking on a hot race second up where she was third behind Zalatte and Baller. Her two runs back this time in have been excellent. She was just touched off first up when giving away a long start and again gave away a pretty long start second up but reeled her rivals in to win running away and landing some big bets. She was backed in from $1.65 to $1.45 on track that day. She didn’t let the punters down. She looks to be a filly on the rise going through her grades. She gets into a bigger field here stepping up to the 1400m and I think that will suit her. I think the race might set up a bit better for her. I am hoping from the middle gate Tommy Berry won’t feel the need to get too far back on her here. If he can lob her midfield one off the fence and have her blending into the race within striking distance before the home turn then she is going to be very hard to hold out. On a day that looks pretty tough she looks the one favourite we can really narrow in on and have a decent bet. I think we will get around the $2.50 mark about her on the day just given that slight question mark of where she will be in the run given her pattern. I think around that price she is a good bet and keen to be with her. The horse I am going to save on in the race is Constellations. This mare has only had the two career starts but has clearly come back a much better horse this time in. She had her first start back in October last year on a heavy track at Kembla Grange and she was easy in the market and ran last and immediately spelled. This campaign she trialled well leading into the first up run, was heavily backed and won accordingly at Newcastle. She was never going to lose that race and while the winning margin was just over a length it could have been far greater as she was eased down over the final stages. I like the way she went about it and Anthony Cummings can bring these horses to town with good effect. She draws a nice middle gate and has no weight on her back after the claim for Brock Ryan and I think she looks a real danger to the favourite. At the double figure odds I think she is a good saving bet. Toryjoy has trialled well and I was on her for a few starts last time in and she let us down. I think she is talented and I am a bit nervous about her here but I think she will probably take this run. Should she run well here though we can certainly follow up with her second up as she looks to have come back well. Let’s just hope not too well to the extent that she wins here.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Reelem In Ruby and save with $20 the win on Constellations locking in the $10 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

2:55pm

Suggested

Newsfan (No.5), Desert Lord (No.13) & Oriental Runner (No.16)

Dangers

Deprive (No.6) & Zonk (No.9)

This is probably the race of the day at Rosehill. There are some very promising horses going around here. The issue or potential issue here is that a lot of them are resuming and coming up against some lesser credentialed but fitter gallopers. That does make the race a little bit of a trap but I am still happy to bet into it. DepriveNewsfan and Desert Lord are the three horses that head the market. They all have considerable talent and all have a bit of a boom on them. Deprive only had the three runs last time in but made a big impression. He was beaten as an odds on favourite first up before stringing two excellent wins together in races that proved to be strong form references. He has had two trials leading into this first up assignment and should be hard to beat. He was beaten first up when last in work and even though that was over 1000m and this race is over 1200m I am just a bit wary of him here first up. He trialled to me like a horse that might be looking more for 1400m this time in potentially and given he come up the shortest price of those three resuming runners I was happy to back around him here. When I say happy, I am pretty nervous but going with those at the better price. Newsfan is a serious racehorse. He is another that just had the two runs when last in work. He was a dominant winner over this course and distance first up last time in before going down by the barest of margins over the 1300m here second up. We haven’t seen him at the races since then but he has had two nice trials to have him right for this first up run. I actually don’t mind him drawn out here. I am hoping he can land in a nice trailing position three wide with cover potentially and providing by this stage of the day it isn’t too much of a disadvantage to come a bit wider on the course then I think he might be able to build full momentum while Deprive is potentially locked up in a pocket. The early market suggests I might have that wrong as all the money has been for Deprive but I don’t think Newsfan should be more than double his price which he currently is so given that happy to be with him. I actually thought Desert Lord trialled the best out of all three. His form is certainly known for being better over a bit further but he has only had the one trial earlier in the week for this first up run so he might have a bit more freshness on his side. I just think this is a horse that is going to continue to improve with more racing. He draws ideally in gate four down in the weights for Tommy Berry here and I am hoping he might be able to hold a position not too far off the speed. If he can do that he should be right in the finish if he can run up to that trial. Happy to be with him. Given we are going on about all these fresh horses it wouldn’t surprise me if a fit horse could run well and cause a bit of a boilover. I thought the one at odds that might run a cheeky race was down the bottom in Oreintal Runner. This bloke doesn’t win out of turn but he is clearly fit and racing well. He looked home in the Wagga Town Plate last start but he probably just got left in front too soon and was a bit of a sitting shot late. He has an excellent 1200m record, he draws well and he gets in with absolutely no weight on his back here with just 50kgs after the claim for Brock Ryan. I just thought if there was to be an upset in the race he might be the one to provide it and at the $30 or thereabouts on offer he was worth a small ticket. Zonk was the other horse worth mentioning. She was really good winning first up and should jump close enough to the lead again here. She typically runs a bit of a flat one though second up after a good first up run so for that reason I am risking her in a very good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Newsfan and Desert Lord here and save with $10 the win on Oriental Runner!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:00pm

Suggested

I’m A Rippa (No.1), Violate (No.4), Ever Loyal (No.9) & Addictive Nature (No.11)

Dangers

Tyzone (No.6) & Chapter And Verse (No.10)

This is a cracking race. It is the BRC Sprint over the 1350m and it brings together quite a number of different form lines and quite a few in form horses. The horse with a bit of a buzz about him at the moment is clearly Chapter And Verse following a dominant win three weeks ago. He was first up that day at Eagle Farm and never ever looked like losing. The key was that he was able to lob relatively close to the speed and once they turned for home and he ambled up to the leaders the race looked as good as over and it was. He bounded clear to win by three lengths seemingly with a bit in hand. It was a dominant first up performance. He is starting to build an imposing record. He was well backed that day which suggested that he had come back well and he clearly has. Despite all that I am going to bet against him here. It is risky as he won so well first up but I think Doomben and this race represent a far bigger challenge to that of what he faced first up. He seems to relish racing at Eagle Farm as opposed to here and he certainly comes up against stiffer opposition in this race. Throw in the fact he has come up under $3 and I am just going to bet around him with a few other runners to hopefully get a result. I’m A Rippa looks ready to fire here third up from a spell. He has taken on a couple of strong races to kick off this campaign and while beaten hasn’t been disgraced. He decided to try and lead Redzel first up at Eagle Farm and tired late before leading into the straight last Saturday in the Doomben 10,000 but was ultimately cut down late and finished tenth. Despite finishing tenth he was only beaten just over three lengths. He comes back a notch or two in grade here, he gets up to his pet trip of 1350m. His record over this trip here at Doomben is excellent and he draws gate four to land on the bunny for Jeff Lloyd. Over this longer trip he should be able to find the lead more comfortably here and there doesn’t look to be too many other speed horses in the race so I think Jeff will be able to assume control in front. If that is the case then I’m A Rippa is going to be very hard to run down. Happy to be with him. I am going to keep the Kiwi raider in Ever Loyal on side. We saw this bloke come out to Australia off some good New Zealand form in early March when he ran at Randwick. He was backed relentlessly in that race. He was backed in early fixed odds markets and then normally you will see that even out a bit on course on the day but they kept coming for him on course and started a clear second favourite. He unfortunately performed poorly and was well beaten by Dreamforce and immediately shipped back to New Zealand. I am going to give him another chance here. He had a trial over there recently which he looked to go particularly well in and we know that Tony Pike has a really good record when bringing horse here to Brisbane. Ever Loyal draws ideally in gate five to get a lovely run just off the speed and around the $15 mark I am happy to be with him. Addictive Nature comes into this race third up after two fair runs this time in for the new stable. Danny O’Brien has been getting everything to win recently but he is seemingly struggling to work this horse out. He looked a bit dour first up over the 1200m behind Haunted before being really well backed at Flemington last start and being touched off by Fastnet Tempest in a race where it was hard to find too many excuses for him. I think the addition of blinkers here for the first time is crucial. I think you will see him ridden pretty positively by McEvoy and I have him coming across and landing outside the leader in I’m A Rippa. If he can do that without exerting too much energy I think there is every chance the two of them can own the race out in front so I am happy to be on Addictive Nature at the double figure odds. The mad roughy bet in the race is Violate. He has been taking on some seriously fast races in recent times against some good horses. That form around Streets Of Avalon from his Flemington win four starts back has been really strong and his last three runs have been in races where he probably hasn’t been suited. He struck wet tracks in his two Sydney runs one of which was the Doncaster and he was forced to lead at Bendigo which isn’t his go. I just think if he runs to his best this race is within his grasp. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and the $40-50 that he has come up in early markets looks a big price so he is worth a bet for mine.

Betting strategy

Well the whole point of this strategy is trying to get Chapter And Verse beat! I will have $40 the win on I'm A Rippa, having half now at the $6 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $15 the win on Addictive Nature and Ever Loyal and I will lock in the $16 about Ever Loyal! I will also have $10 the win on Violate!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - Doomben Cup

3:40pm

Suggested

Shillelagh (No.11), Youngstar (No.13) & Sixties Groove (No.17)

Dangers

Life Less Ordinary (No.2), Archedemus (No.6) & Kenedna (No.12)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Doomben Cup and it is another pretty challenging race. The horse I was most keen to back in the race was Sixties Groove the first emergency. I think he is a really big chance here. While a few of these horses in this race have been up for a while and this race may have been a little bit of an afterthought for them he comes into it still very new in this campaign and on the way up potentially. He hit the line well with the big weight first up in the Hawkesbury Cup behind Archedemus and obviously has a significant weight turnaround on that horse here under the weight for age conditions. He also should be open to plenty more improvement coming into this race second up whereas Archedemus has been up for some time so I am confident he can turn the tables on that galloper. Last campaign he came off a similar first up performance to win the Moe Cup second up. This is certainly a harder race than the Moe Cup but I think he finds a pretty good setup. He is unbeaten over the 2000m, he is twice a winner second up and he draws to land in a gun spot just off the speed from gate seven. I just think he is a great chance and the $12 being bet looks a really good price in a wide open race. Happy to be with him. Following on from that rationale I am happy to be with Youngstar who looks to have targeted this race after missing most of the Sydney autumn. The question mark is probably how well she is going following the bone chip operation after the Melbourne Cup last year. She did enough first up in the All Aged behind Pierata before leaping sharply in trip second up last start in the Hollindale and striking that heavy track. She was a big drifter in the betting that day and while she ran well, she never really looked like winning. She comes into this race third up and should be ready to fire. She raced really well here as a three year old through the winter carnival last year and I would expect her to be peaking her at her third run back. You only have to go back to her spring campaign to see that she wasn’t too far off the best horses we had going around and this is by no means a vintage Doomben Cup. I think if she can find her best form and get the right run in transit she will be hard to hold out so as I said I want to be in her corner. I also can’t let Shillelagh go around without me. She does fit into the afterthought category. She has run second in an Australian Cup back in March and then ran fifth in a Doncaster last month. She comes into this race off a five week break after chasing home Winx last start but clearly has a fair bit of class on her side coming into this race. She draws gate two to get the lovely smother in behind them for James McDonald and if he can replicate his ride on her that he produced on Derby Day at Flemington where she burst up the inside rail to win the big mares race to win she should be in the finish here. I don’t want to be losing on the race should she be winning so happy to have something on her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $20 the win on Sixties Groove locking in the $12 about him! I will also have $20 the win on Shillelagh and $35 the win on Youngstar!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:20pm

Suggested

Scarlet Dream (No.1) & Etana (No.14)

Dangers

Aliferous (No.2) & On The White Turf (No.15)

This is The Roses, the final lead up to the Queensland Oaks over the 2000m to finish the day on here. Not surprisingly we are seeing the Sydney form hold up pretty well through this carnival so far and that would certainly indicate that Scarlet Dream will be very hard to beat here should that trend continue. This is a promising staying filly that looks to have the Oaks written all over her. She resumed from a spell this time in with an excellent second at Rosehill before going to Kembla Grange and chasing home Pohutukawa. At her last two runs she has chased home the star filly Verry Elleegant in the Vinery and Oaks. She ran really well in the Oaks beating all bar that star filly. You would expect that form to hold up here. While it is a big field, it features a lot of fillies trying to make their way up through the grades and she is proven and has the form on the board. She has been kept up to the mark since the Oaks with a solid 1200m trial two weeks ago. She was given a good workout that day and certainly went through the line strongly. Blake Shinn rode like a man possessed around this track last week and if he can produce another gem here from what is potentially an awkward wide draw and give Scarlet Dream the right run in transit then you would think she would be winning. I think she just needs that touch of luck. She is around the $2.50 mark in most markets at the moment which looks a fair price and I am happy to be in her corner to finish the day here. I am going to save on Etana just in case. I am convinced this filly is going really well at the moment, she just isn’t getting the best of luck in running. Since winning at Sale five starts back she has been caught wide at Flemington behind Spanish Whisper when not beaten far and then did plenty of work at The Valley behind Princess Jenni. She then came back in trip at Randwick and hit the line well before just having to go back to what was maybe the slower inside part of the track at the Gold Coast last start behind Winning Ways. She was just held up for a run for a few strides there too while a few other horses were building momentum into the race on that heavy track. I thought she went through the line strongly and should be suited here around Doomben. She draws gate two for Johnny Allen so I would expect her to land right on speed and if the favourite Scarlet Dream ends up getting a bit too far back and this filly is on speed and pouncing then she might be hard to get past. At that $9-10 mark I am happy to be saving on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Scarlet Dream here and save with $20 the win on Etana!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 1

12:31pm

Suggested

Ginny Ann (No.5) & Balaabel (No.7)

Dangers

Absolute Flirt (No.3)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday as their carnival comes to a close with the running of the Goodwood Handicap. The racing has been strong in recent weeks and this looks a good meeting to close the carnival out. The preview is starting to get pretty lengthy so I might try and condense this one a bit as none of you will even make it down here by the time you get through the other races. The weather in Adelaide has also been excellent just like Melbourne and as a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday. Like a few of the other venues around the country I am getting started nice and early and kicking off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1200m. Half of the field comes through the race won by Absolute Flirt here two weeks ago so that certainly looks the key form reference. Balaabel was on debut that day when chasing home Absolute Flirt and I am pretty confident that she will be able to turn the tables here. That debut run was over the 1050m and Absolute Flirt was up on speed right behind the two leaders while Balaabel was further back and trying to run those leaders down. Absolute Flirt was just able to steal a march at the top of the straight and despite Balaabel coming strongly late she just failed. I think she is certainly open to more improvement from that debut run and she gives the impression that the step up to the 1200m will suit. All the form around Absolute Flirt has been standing up so I would expect it to again in this race and expect both to run well but I do have a leaning to Balaabel and at the slightly better price I am happy to be with her to improve off the debut run and turn the tables here. I also want to have something on Ginny Ann who won impressively on debut at Warrnambool in a rich Vobis two year old race. There was a fair spruik around for this horse prior to that debut run off a couple of handy jump outs and she was well backed and won accordingly. I like the way she sat off the speed and really pinned the ears back at the top of the straight to run her rivals down. That was over the 1000m and she also gave the impression that she would be suited by the step up to the 12000m here. She draws out but it is a small field so I am not too concerned about her settling back off the speed and if she is within striking distance I think she is capable of being really strong late and getting over the top of them. As I have mentioned a few times, The Bool form is holding up well and as a result I want to be saving on her here.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Balaabel here and save with $25 the win on Ginny Ann!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 3

1:46pm

Suggested

Rock On (No.1), Chequered Flag (No.3) & Nashville Sound (No.11)

Dangers

Valac (No.5) & Instigator (No.10)

This race is for the stayers over the 2500m and it has drawn together a pretty competitive field. This is typically not the type of race I would normally bet into particularly in Adelaide but I thought there were some good betting opportunities here. Nashville Sound in particular is a horse that I am interested in. He has been pretty good to me in his short career so far and he is racing really well this campaign. He is a horse that has always shown good ability but this campaign he has really gone to a new level and started to put it all together. He resumed with a good run at Warrnambool when first up over the 2000m and heavily backed. He just got pipped in that race before he went to Penola and absolutely bolted in their Cup winning easily. He then went to The Bool and looked one of the better bets of the day on the first day of the carnival and he didn’t let his followers down. It was a good ride from Declan Bates as he offset the wide draw early and had him over and across outside the leader very quickly. He then nearly got himself into a spot of bother as a few horses went around him and I thought he was going to miss the boat for a few strides. It turned out well though as he was able to ease across heels in the straight and I love the way he pinned the ears back and gunned his rivals down late to score an easy victory. He looks the horse in the race that is very much on an upward spiral. He is a four year old having just his ninth career start and he is in really good form. He is reunited with Raquel Clark here who rode him in the Penola Cup with such confidence and from a middle gate I imagine he will be landing up on speed again and pretty hard to get past. I am pretty much obliged to stay with him. I think his main opposition may come from this former New Zealand galloper in Rock On. This galloper had his first run for the Gelagotis stable at Caulfield last Saturday where he was just touched off by Alfarris. He loomed up and looked the winner in the straight there but the other horse was just able to kick back and nose him out. Rock On was over a month between runs into that race and that may have just told in the final stages. I think on the back up here with that run under his belt he is going to come to the races fitter and ready to rumble on Saturday. He is a horse that can take up a position on speed and will be in the firing line for most of the way so for that reason happy to be in his corner. The other horse I am going to have something on in the race is Chequered Flag. This galloper is making his name more as a jumper nowadays but he is still a very competent flat horse. He won strongly at Warrnambool on the final day of the carnival and will no doubt probably be using this race as a stepping stone to some of the stronger jumps races later in the season. Like I said though he does have some decent flat ability and his best flat form would certainly be capable of winning a race of this nature. I think because his recent win was over the jumps the market may be ignoring him a little here and for that reason he has come up over the odds. Dwayne Dunn rides and if the others are paddling late he will be really strong and around the $15-20 mark I think he is well worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Nashville Sound here, $25 the win on Rock On and $15 the win on Chequered Flag!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:26pm

Suggested

Nordic Symphony (No.2) & Elusive Rose (No.5)

Dangers

Rock Dove (No.1) & Etheridge (No.6)

This is the SA Fillies Classic for the three year old fillies over the 2500m. Nordic Symphony does look close to the good thing of the day with even luck. She is really starting to put it together this filly and I would think she just needs to maintain her level and have luck in running to be saluting here. Her last three runs have been where I have started following her. I liked her run at Sandown Hillside four starts back and then she was about four to five weeks between runs for her next start where I had something on her at Sandown Lakeside and she had no luck at all behind Zargos. I then had something on her at Flemington where she shared the spoils with Orcein at massive odds. She then came here for the Schweppes Oaks two weeks ago and was pretty unlucky. She was right alongside Princess Jenni in the run but at the moment Princes Jenni went back inside horses and got the run for Ollie, Nordic Symphony was trying to get to the outside and she just got baulked for a run. She had to be eased across heels and lost a fair bit of momentum while Princess Jenni was building up the revs and driving through the middle. Once Nordic Symphony got out she hit the line strongly but the bird had flown. She gave every impression in that race with how she hit the line that she will relish the 2500m here. She draws a lovely gate for Craig Williams to get a good run just off the speed and I think if she gets the luck in running here she will be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her. I am going to save on Elusive Rose who was one of the heartbreak stories from The Bool. I watched that race on the final day she was in with a couple of people in our Jumps Tipping competition and the obviously asked “have you got a tip in this one for us Baron” and I gave them Elusive Rose at around the $25-30 mark. She went forward early landed in the box seat, the leader rolled off the fence, she slipped up the inside and kicked around the bend and looked all over the winner. We were standing at about the 200m mark and when she ran past us we thought she was home and gave her a decent cheer, they then came to the line and two horses dived at her. We couldn’t tell but thought she might have held on. She ended up not even getting second and running third. It was a brutal loss, capped off by the fact the horse I save on was beaten into second in the three way photo. For those fortunate enough to Mount Gambier form on a Friday last week they would have seen her lob there in a very winnable race and she duly got the job done by a big margin. She is big odds again here but she certainly comes into the race in very good form. She looks certain to run the trip right out and has come up around the $25-30 mark here so happy to save on her at that price.

Betting strategy

I will have $90 the win on Nordic Symphony here and save with $10 the win on Elusive Rose!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 7 - The Goodwood

4:26pm

Suggested

Spright (No.2) & Iconoclasm (No.10)

Dangers

Booker (No.1) & Cool Passion (No.8)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Goodwood Handicap over the 1200m. Look, this isn’t a vintage Goodwood by any stretch of the imagination and I found it a pretty difficult race to decipher. I have to include it in the preview though as last year I didn’t include the race and backed Santa Ana Lane at $30 and he got up. So I better not do that this year. Unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any value to that extent here. Adam Blencowe described the race as being like The Wangoom on twitter earlier in the week and it is hard to argue with him. For that reason I stuck to the obvious. Spright is a genuine Group One mare who has raced against some of our best sprinters and been very competitive with them. She finally broke through for an overdue win in the Sangster last start and I am hoping that breakthrough might lead to more wins for her. She is clearly going very well at the moment. The issue with her is obviously her racing pattern. She just gets too far out of her ground. I think Morphettville as a track though is forgiving to her style of racing. It is a straight that generally allows backmarkers plenty of time to build into their work and hit the line strongly. She went back to last or near enough to it last start and was still able to reel her rivals in and do so quite comfortably. I actually don’t think she is too badly off at the weights here being just a few kilos above the minimum given the standard of her opposition. I don’t mind her drawn wide given her pattern and Ollie will know her well now he has had that one ride on her. I think she is just the obvious and happy to be with her again. Iconoclasm is the horse I am going to save on. This former Darren Weir trained galloper has obviously come back well for Danny O’Brien this campaign. He was just really solidly backed all the way through betting first up at Caulfield over the 1200m. It was an excellent ride by Craig Williams too as he just made sure he stayed close enough to Miss Leonidas in the run and knew he would be strong enough to run over her late. He then showed good tenacity to fight off Miss Vixen. I think he is the lightly raced horse on the up that could run a race here. He draws out for Craig and gets some weight relief and I think he can run well so will save on him. It is a tricky race though and had it not been The Goodwood I probably would have been happy to let it go through to the keeper. I am certainly not as keen as the day Glamour Puss won this race back in 2005, but hopefully Danny O’Brien can have similar luck here with Iconoclasm.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Spright here and save with $25 the win on Iconoclasm!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

11:40am

Suggested

The Pugilist (No.3), Ethical Solution (No.9) & St Edward’s Crown (No.11)

Dangers

Independent Road (No.2) & La Lucciola (No.7)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Flemington this Saturday for what certainly looks to be a pretty challenging winter meeting. The weather has turned it on in Melbourne this week and we will be racing on a dry track with Flemington likely to play perfect as per normal. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1400m. This is an interesting race. I have to admit when I did the form initially I was pretty confident that I had found one that might come up good odds in St Edward’s Crown. This filly ran well on debut at Seymour over the 1200m in a fast race for the day and there was a big gap to the second horse. She comes from the Shane Fliedner stable which with no disrespect to Shane isn’t one of the big stables in the state. There was a big gap to the third horse in that race and I thought “yup, I really might have found one at double figure odds here”. Clearly I wasn’t the only one as when I went and looked at the odds after doing the form she had come up around the $6 mark which is roundabouts where I had her marked. I probably had her a fraction shorter. Like I said, the run on debut was good. The winner was just able to build full momentum rounding the home turn while St Edward’s Crown was baulked for a run and had to wait until they straightened to get fully wound up. I am not sure it would have made a difference to the result, but she still went through the line well suggesting the 1400m will suit here and the big gap to the third horse is a good sign typically. She draws a nice middle to wide gate here for Joe Bowditch to settle off the speed and I think with natural improvement from that debut run she can be very competitive here. Happy to be with her. I am turning to Adelaide form for the other two horses I am backing in the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Pugilist turns out the best horse in this race as he looks to have a fair bit of ability. He was beaten as a short priced favourite on debut and then didn’t have the best of luck last start when held up entering the straight. He had to come across the heels of runners and got to the outside while the leader kicked clear and despite closing late just failed. The slight concern with this horse is that both runs have been over 1050m and he makes a sharp leap to the 1400m here. In saying that though both his runs have contained merit, he draws well here and he gives the impression 1400m will suit. For that reason I am going to keep him on side. Ethical Solution comes through might well be a pretty good race on debut. She box seated there and just got left a little flat footed when they sprinted in front. She seemed to hit her straps late I thought when getting to the outside of runners in clear air. The third horse in that race came out and won well last Saturday and I thought she went through the line just as well. She gives the impression 1400m will suit off that 1200m debut, she draws to take up a good position on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on St Edward's Crown here, $25 the win on The Pugilist and $20 the win on Ethical Solution and I am going to lock int he $10 with QLD TAB Fixed Odds about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:50pm

Suggested

Miss Leonidas (No.3) & Superhard (No.6)

Dangers

Bandipur (No.2), Moonlover (No.5) & Smart Coupe (No.7)

This race is down the straight over the 1000m. This is a pretty deep race. There are a few winning chances here. Miss Leonidas looks to get the right set up here. I am hoping we get $3+ for her on the day and if that is the case I think she represents a good bet. Her three runs this time in have been excellent. She just missed at Mornington first up before landing the prize at good odds at Caulfield second up when defeating the subsequent Wangoom winner in I Am Someone. She then made the leap to the 1200m at Caulfield last start and showed great speed but was just left wanting in the final stages as a couple of strong 1200m horses in Iconoclasm and Miss Vixen got over the top of her. I think back to the 1000m here up the straight drawn wide where she can pretty much just run fast down the outside rail she should prove hard to catch. She was very good in her only run down the straight around this time last year and I think if she can maintain the level of form she has shown this time in here in this race she will be hard to run down. Keen to be with her. I think if she is to be beat it will be because she gets the wobbles up late and something storms over the top of her and Superhard is probably the horse I am most nervous of doing that. For that reason I will keep him on side. He won well for us over this track and distance at good odds first up and then he has just been fair at his last couple at Moonee Valley and Caulfield. That first up win was just so dominant though and the fact he returns to the same set up here, drawn out sitting off a strong speed I think he might be capable of replicating a similar performance. If he does he will be hard to hold out so as I said, I want him on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Miss Leonidas and saving with $30 the win on Superhard!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

1:30pm

Suggested

Seberate (No.2) & Thunderdome (No.11)

Dangers

Big Night Out (No.3), Junipal (No.7) & Zaidin (No.12)

This race is over the 1400m for the three year olds. I am pretty keen on one here in Seberate. On a pretty challenging day at Flemington he was probably the galloper that I most wanted to back on the program. His three runs this time in have all been excellent. He was a dominant winner first up at Bendigo when leading all the way before beating all bar the exciting Tarwin second up at Caulfield. Last start in Adelaide things just didn’t work out for him. He jumped well but had plenty of company kick up inside of him early and as a result he was left working out three wide most of the way while the leader East Indiaman led all the way. That race was run in fast time and he looks well placed three weeks into this run. He draws ideally in gate two to get a gun run on the speed and he just looks extremely well weighted with just 52.5kgs on his back. I think he just needs to ensure he holds a position from that inside gate and then ensure he has clear galloping room on straightening and he will most likely be winning. Around the $4+ mark I think he is an excellent bet and wouldn’t be surprised if he started closer to favourite by the time they jumped. Keen. Thunderdome is the horse I am going to save on in the race. I thought he was good last week. He led the field up and fought on well behind Zoutori over the mile and that followed two good runs prior to kick this campaign off. I just though with that mile run under his belt that Steve Baster might try and test a few of these out and run this along up front. He is on the back up, had the run over the longer trip and Baster is an excellent front running rider so I feel he might make a few of these vulnerable. Around the $9-10 mark I am happy to save on him. Junipal is the one I am nervous about. He showed ability last campaign but I still can’t put my finger on just how good he is. He had a recent Kyneton jump out (thanks to MugLogic for pointing that out) where he went OK but I couldn’t read enough into it to back him. I would watch the market though. If good support arrives on the day following on from the fact that he has been pretty firm since markets open then he is probably worth throwing a saving bet on. I will just wait to see what the market does though before I decide on that. As I said though, I am pretty keen on Seberate here I think he is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $4.40 with BetEasy is as good as you will get about Seberate so will lock that in and have $60 the win on him saving with $15 the win on Thunderdome!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Wham (No.6) & I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.12)

Dangers

Declares War (No.1) & Igniter (No.9)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and it is a tough race. I think Wham looks ready to win. His form this time in has been really strong and he is racing like a horse that is looking for this 2000m trip. He got the job done in good fashion first up at Sale which was the first sign that he was going to be in for a pretty solid campaign. He then went on to run well at huge odds in the Bendigo Guineas where he was arguably unlucky not to win. I would have kicked myself had he run a drum that day or won at $91 as I was going to back him and then stopped myself. He then had a bit of a flat run behind Tarwin at his next start before clearly relishing getting up to the mile last start where again you can argue with different luck in running he could have potentially reversed that result on Tarwin. I just think if Tarwin was in this race he would be close to odds on and we are getting $7 about Wham here. He draws out but that doesn’t concern me here on the big track as he will go back and be given plenty of time to wind into his work and I am actually looking forward to seeing him be able to build full momentum on this big track. I think around that $7 mark he is an excellent bet. Keen to be with him. I had something on I’m Dun Dreamin’ last Saturday in the race won by Zoutori and I thought it was a pleasing return. The way the race was run didn’t give him too much chance back inside horses off the speed but I thought he got through the line quite nicely. He is on the quick back up here and rises sharply in distance but I think on to the bigger track and with the wider draw he gets a better setup. I was pretty surprised at the odds he come up in the race. He is around the $30 mark in the early markets and at that price I think he is well worth a ticket here in what is a wide open race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wham here and save with $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' and will lock in the $26 about the latter ($31 if you can get on with Bet365)!

Race Outlay

$45

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Mr Marathon Man (No.3), One More Try (No.9) & Spanner Head (No.11)

Dangers

Husson Eagle (No.5) & Masculino (No.7)

This race is over the 1400m here and I am very much looking forward to seeing the return of One More Try who is a mare I have quite a bit of time for. In what was a pretty lean spring carnival for me last year, in particular Melbourne Cup week, she was a rare highlight when winning as my best bet on Cup Day. That was her third win from as many starts in that campaign and she really went through her grades nicely. She won well first up at Geelong over the 1500m before going to Bendigo and landing nice bets to win second up there. That was the win that told me she was a good horse. She was back off the speed and really rounded her rivals up with ease for a dominant win. She then went to Flemington and got the job done in trying conditions on Cup Day. She just looks a lightly raced mare that is still very much on an upward spiral. She has won five of ten starts and finds a race with a few well exposed types here. He recent trial at Cranbourne suggests to me she has come back well, she draws well here with no weight on her back to get a lovely smother just in behind the speed and if she has improved again since last campaign we might see a pretty good horse in action on Saturday. Keen to be with her. I think Spanner Head is the danger. She was good first up in that Vobis race behind Twitchy Frank at Caulfield. She was back off the speed in the small field that day while the winner Twitchy Frank really controlled things up on speed. Second up at a track she has performed really well at in the past looks a nice set up. She draws well, she also gets in really light at the weights and looks primed to run a big race so keen to be with her. The other horse I want to have something on at big odds is Mr Marathon Man. This bloke jumped out OK prior to resuming in The Wangoom at Warrnambool but the market suggested he was going to need the run that day and he ran accordingly. He was back and never really looked like winning. I thought watching the replay again though that he actually went through the line quite well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a much improved race here second up. The step up in distance is obviously a big plus here and he also draws nicely to take up a much more prominent position in running. I think he might be over the odds here around that $20 mark and as such happy to be with him. The other runner that I am a bit wary of in the race is Masculino. I naturally thought 1400m would be too short for him but his recent trial was quite sharp and he has been kept pretty safe in early markets but he is the one I am going to risk.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on One More Try here, $30 the win on Spanner Head and $15 the win on Mr Marathon Man!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

11:30am

Suggested

Espinola (No.2) & Kubrick (No.4)

Dangers

Diamond Thunder (No.1) & Hulk (No.3)

Racing in Sydney returns to Rosehill this Saturday for what is also a pretty challenging meeting. There are a few deep races and like Flemington I am playing a fair few of them pretty wide. The rail is in the true position and we will be racing on a good track so I would expect horses up on speed would certainly not be disadvantaged in anyway but given we haven’t raced here for some time it will pay to watch the early races closely. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is over the 1200m for the two year olds. This is an interesting race as there looks to be really good early pressure up front and for that reason I thought it might set it up for a horse sitting just off the pace to be really strong at the end of 1200m. For that reason I ended up siding with Espinola and Kubrick. We had a pretty strong tip for Espinola at Wagga when he won on the first day of their carnival which was the last day of The Bool carnival. The win in my opinion was most impressive. He didn’t begin quickly and was second last into stride. He was able to muster speed though and kick through to get into a good position coming to the home turn. He then was able to ease into clear galloping room and really let down strongly to win running away. The trial prior to that first up win was very good and all the signs are that he has come back a much better horse this time in. He draws nicely here in gate three to again get a good smother in behind the speed and I am hopeful that if a few of the leaders overdo it up front that he will be the one coming at them with the last shot. Around the $7-8 mark I am happy to be with him. Kubrick got the job done impressively on debut at Cranbourne and I respect the Waller decision to now switch him up to Sydney. He sat in behind the speed that night at Cranbourne and wore down a well fancied Mick Price two year old and there was a good gap to the third horse. I liked the way he pinned the ears back late and really charged through the line. He should be suited here by the likely good tempo up front and he looks like he will relish stepping up to the 1200m. He draws to get a good trailing run in behind them for Glyn Schofield and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kubrick and $30 the win on Espinola here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Green Reign (No.6), Plonka (No.10) & Wyendra (No.13)

Dangers

Mick The Hat (No.1) & Elm Court (No.9)

This is an interesting highway here over the 1200m. It looks like we might have a few handy types going around in this race. There are quite a few lightly raced horses showing some good promise and they are the horses I am focusing on here rather than the horses that have been punching around in these highways for a while now. The Highway King Matty Dunn brings a couple of runners down from Murwillumbah and one of those is Green Reign who looks a pretty exciting prospect. He has only had the one start for one win in his career back in December at Ipswich and hasn’t raced since. He started a $1.65 favourite that day and came from off the speed to get the cash. He resumed here as a gelding and has had two trials to get him up to the mark and ready for this first up assignment. The most recent one on his home track at Murwillumbah he easily had his rivals covered and won the trial with plenty in hand. I think he might be pretty smart and with Glyn on from a middle gate he looks hard to hold out. Happy to be with him. Plonka makes the journey down from Coffs Harbour and he also looks to be a promising young galloper given what we have seen of him at his first two starts. He started a heavily backed favourite on debut at Grafton and was just touched off before going to Tamworth and being backed as if unbeatable at his second start and bolting in. Ben Looker stays with him here after riding him at his first two starts and he will no doubt want to have him up on speed and in the firing line for most of the way. If that is the place to be early on this program then Plonka might be pretty hard to run past so I want to be saving on him. The other horse I will have something small on is Wyendra. This lightly raced mare returned from a long break with a dominant win at Canberra first up. She had shown ability in previous campaigns and looks to have come back well. She draws to get a good run just off the speed and if they do go a bit mad up front then she might be the one who can pounce on them late. Around the $15-20 mark I think she is worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

It looks a strong lead for Green Reign with Matty Dunn scratching the stable mate! I will have $60 the win on Green Reign and save with $25 the win on Plonka and $10 the win on Wyendra!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

1:55pm

Suggested

Above And Beyond (No.3), Oxford Tycoon (No.4) & Transmitter (No.8)

Dangers

Call Me Royal (No.6), Hostwin Supreme (No.13) & Burning Crown (No.14)

This is a wide open race here. I actually wrestled a little bit with myself over whether to include this race in the preview or not. Given the horses I have come up with are all pretty decent prices I am going to bet as we shouldn’t have to outlay too much to get a decent return. There are quite a few different form lines coming together and that gives us a pretty wide open race. The runner that certainly intrigues me most is Oxford Tycoon. This is a three year old that has shown good ability in his short career to date. In his debut campaign he was competitive in some of the better two year old races around the likes of Sandbar and Santos. He then resumed later in that season following those two good runs to kick off his career in stakes grade and absolutely walked in at Wyong. That signalled to people that he was a pretty handy horse and at his next start he went around a well supported second favourite in the Rosebud. He just didn’t fire a shot that day and finished last and was immediately spelled. Given we haven’t seen him at the races since that would suggest there was an issue. He has had two trials leading into this first up run and gone nicely at both of them without being spectacular. That was what was holding me back from really launching into him here. The trials just didn’t wow me enough. He has had two of them though which suggests to me that he is going to arrive here pretty close to the mark. He draws ideally for Jay Ford to land on speed and I think if all is well with him and he runs to his best, that $7 is probably going to look a pretty good price. Happy to be with him. Transmitter is first up here and has shown some good ability in her career. She went through her grades quite nicely last campaign winning three of her four starts and she looks to be a filly on the improve. Her first up win to break her maiden at Kembla Grange was quite dominant in fact. She has trialled well leading into this suggesting she has come back well and providing Rachel King can offset that wide draw then I think she will be right in the finish. Happy to keep her on side around the $9-10 mark. She has shown speed in her recent trials but given the abundance of speed engaged here I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ridden quiet from that draw and she might be the one having the last shot at them. Above And Beyond is the horse that might improve sharply here. Not a lot went right for him first up on ANZAC Day. He was heavily backed which suggests he has come back well but didn’t show enough speed out of the gates to cross the leaders and was left wide and working. He stuck on fairly but never really looked like winning. He draws an inside gate here so hopefully he can jump and show enough speed to lead. If that is the case and he can do so without using up too much energy early he might be hard to run down. At double figure odds I think he is worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Oxford Tycoon here pretty confident he starts shorter than $7 so happy to lock that price in! If he drifts it is probably a sign we are in trouble! I will have $20 the win on Transmitter and $15 the win on Above And Beyond!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 6

2:35pm

Suggested

Reelem In Ruby (No.9) & Constellations (No.14)

Dangers

Toryjoy (No.6), Jen Rules (No.10) & Alnaas (No.11)

This race is for the fillies and mares over the 1400m and it looks a pretty good race. Reelem In Rubyhas come up pretty short in the market and it is easy to see why based on the way she has returned this time in. She has only had the five starts but is already building up a very impressive record. Last campaign she won well first up before taking on a hot race second up where she was third behind Zalatte and Baller. Her two runs back this time in have been excellent. She was just touched off first up when giving away a long start and again gave away a pretty long start second up but reeled her rivals in to win running away and landing some big bets. She was backed in from $1.65 to $1.45 on track that day. She didn’t let the punters down. She looks to be a filly on the rise going through her grades. She gets into a bigger field here stepping up to the 1400m and I think that will suit her. I think the race might set up a bit better for her. I am hoping from the middle gate Tommy Berry won’t feel the need to get too far back on her here. If he can lob her midfield one off the fence and have her blending into the race within striking distance before the home turn then she is going to be very hard to hold out. On a day that looks pretty tough she looks the one favourite we can really narrow in on and have a decent bet. I think we will get around the $2.50 mark about her on the day just given that slight question mark of where she will be in the run given her pattern. I think around that price she is a good bet and keen to be with her. The horse I am going to save on in the race is Constellations. This mare has only had the two career starts but has clearly come back a much better horse this time in. She had her first start back in October last year on a heavy track at Kembla Grange and she was easy in the market and ran last and immediately spelled. This campaign she trialled well leading into the first up run, was heavily backed and won accordingly at Newcastle. She was never going to lose that race and while the winning margin was just over a length it could have been far greater as she was eased down over the final stages. I like the way she went about it and Anthony Cummings can bring these horses to town with good effect. She draws a nice middle gate and has no weight on her back after the claim for Brock Ryan and I think she looks a real danger to the favourite. At the double figure odds I think she is a good saving bet. Toryjoy has trialled well and I was on her for a few starts last time in and she let us down. I think she is talented and I am a bit nervous about her here but I think she will probably take this run. Should she run well here though we can certainly follow up with her second up as she looks to have come back well. Let’s just hope not too well to the extent that she wins here.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Reelem In Ruby and save with $20 the win on Constellations locking in the $10 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

2:55pm

Suggested

Newsfan (No.5), Desert Lord (No.13) & Oriental Runner (No.16)

Dangers

Deprive (No.6) & Zonk (No.9)

This is probably the race of the day at Rosehill. There are some very promising horses going around here. The issue or potential issue here is that a lot of them are resuming and coming up against some lesser credentialed but fitter gallopers. That does make the race a little bit of a trap but I am still happy to bet into it. DepriveNewsfan and Desert Lord are the three horses that head the market. They all have considerable talent and all have a bit of a boom on them. Deprive only had the three runs last time in but made a big impression. He was beaten as an odds on favourite first up before stringing two excellent wins together in races that proved to be strong form references. He has had two trials leading into this first up assignment and should be hard to beat. He was beaten first up when last in work and even though that was over 1000m and this race is over 1200m I am just a bit wary of him here first up. He trialled to me like a horse that might be looking more for 1400m this time in potentially and given he come up the shortest price of those three resuming runners I was happy to back around him here. When I say happy, I am pretty nervous but going with those at the better price. Newsfan is a serious racehorse. He is another that just had the two runs when last in work. He was a dominant winner over this course and distance first up last time in before going down by the barest of margins over the 1300m here second up. We haven’t seen him at the races since then but he has had two nice trials to have him right for this first up run. I actually don’t mind him drawn out here. I am hoping he can land in a nice trailing position three wide with cover potentially and providing by this stage of the day it isn’t too much of a disadvantage to come a bit wider on the course then I think he might be able to build full momentum while Deprive is potentially locked up in a pocket. The early market suggests I might have that wrong as all the money has been for Deprive but I don’t think Newsfan should be more than double his price which he currently is so given that happy to be with him. I actually thought Desert Lord trialled the best out of all three. His form is certainly known for being better over a bit further but he has only had the one trial earlier in the week for this first up run so he might have a bit more freshness on his side. I just think this is a horse that is going to continue to improve with more racing. He draws ideally in gate four down in the weights for Tommy Berry here and I am hoping he might be able to hold a position not too far off the speed. If he can do that he should be right in the finish if he can run up to that trial. Happy to be with him. Given we are going on about all these fresh horses it wouldn’t surprise me if a fit horse could run well and cause a bit of a boilover. I thought the one at odds that might run a cheeky race was down the bottom in Oreintal Runner. This bloke doesn’t win out of turn but he is clearly fit and racing well. He looked home in the Wagga Town Plate last start but he probably just got left in front too soon and was a bit of a sitting shot late. He has an excellent 1200m record, he draws well and he gets in with absolutely no weight on his back here with just 50kgs after the claim for Brock Ryan. I just thought if there was to be an upset in the race he might be the one to provide it and at the $30 or thereabouts on offer he was worth a small ticket. Zonk was the other horse worth mentioning. She was really good winning first up and should jump close enough to the lead again here. She typically runs a bit of a flat one though second up after a good first up run so for that reason I am risking her in a very good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Newsfan and Desert Lord here and save with $10 the win on Oriental Runner!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:00pm

Suggested

I’m A Rippa (No.1), Violate (No.4), Ever Loyal (No.9) & Addictive Nature (No.11)

Dangers

Tyzone (No.6) & Chapter And Verse (No.10)

This is a cracking race. It is the BRC Sprint over the 1350m and it brings together quite a number of different form lines and quite a few in form horses. The horse with a bit of a buzz about him at the moment is clearly Chapter And Verse following a dominant win three weeks ago. He was first up that day at Eagle Farm and never ever looked like losing. The key was that he was able to lob relatively close to the speed and once they turned for home and he ambled up to the leaders the race looked as good as over and it was. He bounded clear to win by three lengths seemingly with a bit in hand. It was a dominant first up performance. He is starting to build an imposing record. He was well backed that day which suggested that he had come back well and he clearly has. Despite all that I am going to bet against him here. It is risky as he won so well first up but I think Doomben and this race represent a far bigger challenge to that of what he faced first up. He seems to relish racing at Eagle Farm as opposed to here and he certainly comes up against stiffer opposition in this race. Throw in the fact he has come up under $3 and I am just going to bet around him with a few other runners to hopefully get a result. I’m A Rippa looks ready to fire here third up from a spell. He has taken on a couple of strong races to kick off this campaign and while beaten hasn’t been disgraced. He decided to try and lead Redzel first up at Eagle Farm and tired late before leading into the straight last Saturday in the Doomben 10,000 but was ultimately cut down late and finished tenth. Despite finishing tenth he was only beaten just over three lengths. He comes back a notch or two in grade here, he gets up to his pet trip of 1350m. His record over this trip here at Doomben is excellent and he draws gate four to land on the bunny for Jeff Lloyd. Over this longer trip he should be able to find the lead more comfortably here and there doesn’t look to be too many other speed horses in the race so I think Jeff will be able to assume control in front. If that is the case then I’m A Rippa is going to be very hard to run down. Happy to be with him. I am going to keep the Kiwi raider in Ever Loyal on side. We saw this bloke come out to Australia off some good New Zealand form in early March when he ran at Randwick. He was backed relentlessly in that race. He was backed in early fixed odds markets and then normally you will see that even out a bit on course on the day but they kept coming for him on course and started a clear second favourite. He unfortunately performed poorly and was well beaten by Dreamforce and immediately shipped back to New Zealand. I am going to give him another chance here. He had a trial over there recently which he looked to go particularly well in and we know that Tony Pike has a really good record when bringing horse here to Brisbane. Ever Loyal draws ideally in gate five to get a lovely run just off the speed and around the $15 mark I am happy to be with him. Addictive Nature comes into this race third up after two fair runs this time in for the new stable. Danny O’Brien has been getting everything to win recently but he is seemingly struggling to work this horse out. He looked a bit dour first up over the 1200m behind Haunted before being really well backed at Flemington last start and being touched off by Fastnet Tempest in a race where it was hard to find too many excuses for him. I think the addition of blinkers here for the first time is crucial. I think you will see him ridden pretty positively by McEvoy and I have him coming across and landing outside the leader in I’m A Rippa. If he can do that without exerting too much energy I think there is every chance the two of them can own the race out in front so I am happy to be on Addictive Nature at the double figure odds. The mad roughy bet in the race is Violate. He has been taking on some seriously fast races in recent times against some good horses. That form around Streets Of Avalon from his Flemington win four starts back has been really strong and his last three runs have been in races where he probably hasn’t been suited. He struck wet tracks in his two Sydney runs one of which was the Doncaster and he was forced to lead at Bendigo which isn’t his go. I just think if he runs to his best this race is within his grasp. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and the $40-50 that he has come up in early markets looks a big price so he is worth a bet for mine.

Betting strategy

Well the whole point of this strategy is trying to get Chapter And Verse beat! I will have $40 the win on I'm A Rippa, having half now at the $6 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $15 the win on Addictive Nature and Ever Loyal and I will lock in the $16 about Ever Loyal! I will also have $10 the win on Violate!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - Doomben Cup

3:40pm

Suggested

Shillelagh (No.11), Youngstar (No.13) & Sixties Groove (No.17)

Dangers

Life Less Ordinary (No.2), Archedemus (No.6) & Kenedna (No.12)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Doomben Cup and it is another pretty challenging race. The horse I was most keen to back in the race was Sixties Groove the first emergency. I think he is a really big chance here. While a few of these horses in this race have been up for a while and this race may have been a little bit of an afterthought for them he comes into it still very new in this campaign and on the way up potentially. He hit the line well with the big weight first up in the Hawkesbury Cup behind Archedemus and obviously has a significant weight turnaround on that horse here under the weight for age conditions. He also should be open to plenty more improvement coming into this race second up whereas Archedemus has been up for some time so I am confident he can turn the tables on that galloper. Last campaign he came off a similar first up performance to win the Moe Cup second up. This is certainly a harder race than the Moe Cup but I think he finds a pretty good setup. He is unbeaten over the 2000m, he is twice a winner second up and he draws to land in a gun spot just off the speed from gate seven. I just think he is a great chance and the $12 being bet looks a really good price in a wide open race. Happy to be with him. Following on from that rationale I am happy to be with Youngstar who looks to have targeted this race after missing most of the Sydney autumn. The question mark is probably how well she is going following the bone chip operation after the Melbourne Cup last year. She did enough first up in the All Aged behind Pierata before leaping sharply in trip second up last start in the Hollindale and striking that heavy track. She was a big drifter in the betting that day and while she ran well, she never really looked like winning. She comes into this race third up and should be ready to fire. She raced really well here as a three year old through the winter carnival last year and I would expect her to be peaking her at her third run back. You only have to go back to her spring campaign to see that she wasn’t too far off the best horses we had going around and this is by no means a vintage Doomben Cup. I think if she can find her best form and get the right run in transit she will be hard to hold out so as I said I want to be in her corner. I also can’t let Shillelagh go around without me. She does fit into the afterthought category. She has run second in an Australian Cup back in March and then ran fifth in a Doncaster last month. She comes into this race off a five week break after chasing home Winx last start but clearly has a fair bit of class on her side coming into this race. She draws gate two to get the lovely smother in behind them for James McDonald and if he can replicate his ride on her that he produced on Derby Day at Flemington where she burst up the inside rail to win the big mares race to win she should be in the finish here. I don’t want to be losing on the race should she be winning so happy to have something on her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $20 the win on Sixties Groove locking in the $12 about him! I will also have $20 the win on Shillelagh and $35 the win on Youngstar!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:20pm

Suggested

Scarlet Dream (No.1) & Etana (No.14)

Dangers

Aliferous (No.2) & On The White Turf (No.15)

This is The Roses, the final lead up to the Queensland Oaks over the 2000m to finish the day on here. Not surprisingly we are seeing the Sydney form hold up pretty well through this carnival so far and that would certainly indicate that Scarlet Dream will be very hard to beat here should that trend continue. This is a promising staying filly that looks to have the Oaks written all over her. She resumed from a spell this time in with an excellent second at Rosehill before going to Kembla Grange and chasing home Pohutukawa. At her last two runs she has chased home the star filly Verry Elleegant in the Vinery and Oaks. She ran really well in the Oaks beating all bar that star filly. You would expect that form to hold up here. While it is a big field, it features a lot of fillies trying to make their way up through the grades and she is proven and has the form on the board. She has been kept up to the mark since the Oaks with a solid 1200m trial two weeks ago. She was given a good workout that day and certainly went through the line strongly. Blake Shinn rode like a man possessed around this track last week and if he can produce another gem here from what is potentially an awkward wide draw and give Scarlet Dream the right run in transit then you would think she would be winning. I think she just needs that touch of luck. She is around the $2.50 mark in most markets at the moment which looks a fair price and I am happy to be in her corner to finish the day here. I am going to save on Etana just in case. I am convinced this filly is going really well at the moment, she just isn’t getting the best of luck in running. Since winning at Sale five starts back she has been caught wide at Flemington behind Spanish Whisper when not beaten far and then did plenty of work at The Valley behind Princess Jenni. She then came back in trip at Randwick and hit the line well before just having to go back to what was maybe the slower inside part of the track at the Gold Coast last start behind Winning Ways. She was just held up for a run for a few strides there too while a few other horses were building momentum into the race on that heavy track. I thought she went through the line strongly and should be suited here around Doomben. She draws gate two for Johnny Allen so I would expect her to land right on speed and if the favourite Scarlet Dream ends up getting a bit too far back and this filly is on speed and pouncing then she might be hard to get past. At that $9-10 mark I am happy to be saving on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Scarlet Dream here and save with $20 the win on Etana!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 1

12:31pm

Suggested

Ginny Ann (No.5) & Balaabel (No.7)

Dangers

Absolute Flirt (No.3)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday as their carnival comes to a close with the running of the Goodwood Handicap. The racing has been strong in recent weeks and this looks a good meeting to close the carnival out. The preview is starting to get pretty lengthy so I might try and condense this one a bit as none of you will even make it down here by the time you get through the other races. The weather in Adelaide has also been excellent just like Melbourne and as a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday. Like a few of the other venues around the country I am getting started nice and early and kicking off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1200m. Half of the field comes through the race won by Absolute Flirt here two weeks ago so that certainly looks the key form reference. Balaabel was on debut that day when chasing home Absolute Flirt and I am pretty confident that she will be able to turn the tables here. That debut run was over the 1050m and Absolute Flirt was up on speed right behind the two leaders while Balaabel was further back and trying to run those leaders down. Absolute Flirt was just able to steal a march at the top of the straight and despite Balaabel coming strongly late she just failed. I think she is certainly open to more improvement from that debut run and she gives the impression that the step up to the 1200m will suit. All the form around Absolute Flirt has been standing up so I would expect it to again in this race and expect both to run well but I do have a leaning to Balaabel and at the slightly better price I am happy to be with her to improve off the debut run and turn the tables here. I also want to have something on Ginny Ann who won impressively on debut at Warrnambool in a rich Vobis two year old race. There was a fair spruik around for this horse prior to that debut run off a couple of handy jump outs and she was well backed and won accordingly. I like the way she sat off the speed and really pinned the ears back at the top of the straight to run her rivals down. That was over the 1000m and she also gave the impression that she would be suited by the step up to the 12000m here. She draws out but it is a small field so I am not too concerned about her settling back off the speed and if she is within striking distance I think she is capable of being really strong late and getting over the top of them. As I have mentioned a few times, The Bool form is holding up well and as a result I want to be saving on her here.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Balaabel here and save with $25 the win on Ginny Ann!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 3

1:46pm

Suggested

Rock On (No.1), Chequered Flag (No.3) & Nashville Sound (No.11)

Dangers

Valac (No.5) & Instigator (No.10)

This race is for the stayers over the 2500m and it has drawn together a pretty competitive field. This is typically not the type of race I would normally bet into particularly in Adelaide but I thought there were some good betting opportunities here. Nashville Sound in particular is a horse that I am interested in. He has been pretty good to me in his short career so far and he is racing really well this campaign. He is a horse that has always shown good ability but this campaign he has really gone to a new level and started to put it all together. He resumed with a good run at Warrnambool when first up over the 2000m and heavily backed. He just got pipped in that race before he went to Penola and absolutely bolted in their Cup winning easily. He then went to The Bool and looked one of the better bets of the day on the first day of the carnival and he didn’t let his followers down. It was a good ride from Declan Bates as he offset the wide draw early and had him over and across outside the leader very quickly. He then nearly got himself into a spot of bother as a few horses went around him and I thought he was going to miss the boat for a few strides. It turned out well though as he was able to ease across heels in the straight and I love the way he pinned the ears back and gunned his rivals down late to score an easy victory. He looks the horse in the race that is very much on an upward spiral. He is a four year old having just his ninth career start and he is in really good form. He is reunited with Raquel Clark here who rode him in the Penola Cup with such confidence and from a middle gate I imagine he will be landing up on speed again and pretty hard to get past. I am pretty much obliged to stay with him. I think his main opposition may come from this former New Zealand galloper in Rock On. This galloper had his first run for the Gelagotis stable at Caulfield last Saturday where he was just touched off by Alfarris. He loomed up and looked the winner in the straight there but the other horse was just able to kick back and nose him out. Rock On was over a month between runs into that race and that may have just told in the final stages. I think on the back up here with that run under his belt he is going to come to the races fitter and ready to rumble on Saturday. He is a horse that can take up a position on speed and will be in the firing line for most of the way so for that reason happy to be in his corner. The other horse I am going to have something on in the race is Chequered Flag. This galloper is making his name more as a jumper nowadays but he is still a very competent flat horse. He won strongly at Warrnambool on the final day of the carnival and will no doubt probably be using this race as a stepping stone to some of the stronger jumps races later in the season. Like I said though he does have some decent flat ability and his best flat form would certainly be capable of winning a race of this nature. I think because his recent win was over the jumps the market may be ignoring him a little here and for that reason he has come up over the odds. Dwayne Dunn rides and if the others are paddling late he will be really strong and around the $15-20 mark I think he is well worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Nashville Sound here, $25 the win on Rock On and $15 the win on Chequered Flag!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:26pm

Suggested

Nordic Symphony (No.2) & Elusive Rose (No.5)

Dangers

Rock Dove (No.1) & Etheridge (No.6)

This is the SA Fillies Classic for the three year old fillies over the 2500m. Nordic Symphony does look close to the good thing of the day with even luck. She is really starting to put it together this filly and I would think she just needs to maintain her level and have luck in running to be saluting here. Her last three runs have been where I have started following her. I liked her run at Sandown Hillside four starts back and then she was about four to five weeks between runs for her next start where I had something on her at Sandown Lakeside and she had no luck at all behind Zargos. I then had something on her at Flemington where she shared the spoils with Orcein at massive odds. She then came here for the Schweppes Oaks two weeks ago and was pretty unlucky. She was right alongside Princess Jenni in the run but at the moment Princes Jenni went back inside horses and got the run for Ollie, Nordic Symphony was trying to get to the outside and she just got baulked for a run. She had to be eased across heels and lost a fair bit of momentum while Princess Jenni was building up the revs and driving through the middle. Once Nordic Symphony got out she hit the line strongly but the bird had flown. She gave every impression in that race with how she hit the line that she will relish the 2500m here. She draws a lovely gate for Craig Williams to get a good run just off the speed and I think if she gets the luck in running here she will be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her. I am going to save on Elusive Rose who was one of the heartbreak stories from The Bool. I watched that race on the final day she was in with a couple of people in our Jumps Tipping competition and the obviously asked “have you got a tip in this one for us Baron” and I gave them Elusive Rose at around the $25-30 mark. She went forward early landed in the box seat, the leader rolled off the fence, she slipped up the inside and kicked around the bend and looked all over the winner. We were standing at about the 200m mark and when she ran past us we thought she was home and gave her a decent cheer, they then came to the line and two horses dived at her. We couldn’t tell but thought she might have held on. She ended up not even getting second and running third. It was a brutal loss, capped off by the fact the horse I save on was beaten into second in the three way photo. For those fortunate enough to Mount Gambier form on a Friday last week they would have seen her lob there in a very winnable race and she duly got the job done by a big margin. She is big odds again here but she certainly comes into the race in very good form. She looks certain to run the trip right out and has come up around the $25-30 mark here so happy to save on her at that price.

Betting strategy

I will have $90 the win on Nordic Symphony here and save with $10 the win on Elusive Rose!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 7 - The Goodwood

4:26pm

Suggested

Spright (No.2) & Iconoclasm (No.10)

Dangers

Booker (No.1) & Cool Passion (No.8)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Goodwood Handicap over the 1200m. Look, this isn’t a vintage Goodwood by any stretch of the imagination and I found it a pretty difficult race to decipher. I have to include it in the preview though as last year I didn’t include the race and backed Santa Ana Lane at $30 and he got up. So I better not do that this year. Unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any value to that extent here. Adam Blencowe described the race as being like The Wangoom on twitter earlier in the week and it is hard to argue with him. For that reason I stuck to the obvious. Spright is a genuine Group One mare who has raced against some of our best sprinters and been very competitive with them. She finally broke through for an overdue win in the Sangster last start and I am hoping that breakthrough might lead to more wins for her. She is clearly going very well at the moment. The issue with her is obviously her racing pattern. She just gets too far out of her ground. I think Morphettville as a track though is forgiving to her style of racing. It is a straight that generally allows backmarkers plenty of time to build into their work and hit the line strongly. She went back to last or near enough to it last start and was still able to reel her rivals in and do so quite comfortably. I actually don’t think she is too badly off at the weights here being just a few kilos above the minimum given the standard of her opposition. I don’t mind her drawn wide given her pattern and Ollie will know her well now he has had that one ride on her. I think she is just the obvious and happy to be with her again. Iconoclasm is the horse I am going to save on. This former Darren Weir trained galloper has obviously come back well for Danny O’Brien this campaign. He was just really solidly backed all the way through betting first up at Caulfield over the 1200m. It was an excellent ride by Craig Williams too as he just made sure he stayed close enough to Miss Leonidas in the run and knew he would be strong enough to run over her late. He then showed good tenacity to fight off Miss Vixen. I think he is the lightly raced horse on the up that could run a race here. He draws out for Craig and gets some weight relief and I think he can run well so will save on him. It is a tricky race though and had it not been The Goodwood I probably would have been happy to let it go through to the keeper. I am certainly not as keen as the day Glamour Puss won this race back in 2005, but hopefully Danny O’Brien can have similar luck here with Iconoclasm.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Spright here and save with $25 the win on Iconoclasm!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

11:40am

Suggested

The Pugilist (No.3), Ethical Solution (No.9) & St Edward’s Crown (No.11)

Dangers

Independent Road (No.2) & La Lucciola (No.7)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Flemington this Saturday for what certainly looks to be a pretty challenging winter meeting. The weather has turned it on in Melbourne this week and we will be racing on a dry track with Flemington likely to play perfect as per normal. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1400m. This is an interesting race. I have to admit when I did the form initially I was pretty confident that I had found one that might come up good odds in St Edward’s Crown. This filly ran well on debut at Seymour over the 1200m in a fast race for the day and there was a big gap to the second horse. She comes from the Shane Fliedner stable which with no disrespect to Shane isn’t one of the big stables in the state. There was a big gap to the third horse in that race and I thought “yup, I really might have found one at double figure odds here”. Clearly I wasn’t the only one as when I went and looked at the odds after doing the form she had come up around the $6 mark which is roundabouts where I had her marked. I probably had her a fraction shorter. Like I said, the run on debut was good. The winner was just able to build full momentum rounding the home turn while St Edward’s Crown was baulked for a run and had to wait until they straightened to get fully wound up. I am not sure it would have made a difference to the result, but she still went through the line well suggesting the 1400m will suit here and the big gap to the third horse is a good sign typically. She draws a nice middle to wide gate here for Joe Bowditch to settle off the speed and I think with natural improvement from that debut run she can be very competitive here. Happy to be with her. I am turning to Adelaide form for the other two horses I am backing in the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Pugilist turns out the best horse in this race as he looks to have a fair bit of ability. He was beaten as a short priced favourite on debut and then didn’t have the best of luck last start when held up entering the straight. He had to come across the heels of runners and got to the outside while the leader kicked clear and despite closing late just failed. The slight concern with this horse is that both runs have been over 1050m and he makes a sharp leap to the 1400m here. In saying that though both his runs have contained merit, he draws well here and he gives the impression 1400m will suit. For that reason I am going to keep him on side. Ethical Solution comes through might well be a pretty good race on debut. She box seated there and just got left a little flat footed when they sprinted in front. She seemed to hit her straps late I thought when getting to the outside of runners in clear air. The third horse in that race came out and won well last Saturday and I thought she went through the line just as well. She gives the impression 1400m will suit off that 1200m debut, she draws to take up a good position on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on St Edward's Crown here, $25 the win on The Pugilist and $20 the win on Ethical Solution and I am going to lock int he $10 with QLD TAB Fixed Odds about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:50pm

Suggested

Miss Leonidas (No.3) & Superhard (No.6)

Dangers

Bandipur (No.2), Moonlover (No.5) & Smart Coupe (No.7)

This race is down the straight over the 1000m. This is a pretty deep race. There are a few winning chances here. Miss Leonidas looks to get the right set up here. I am hoping we get $3+ for her on the day and if that is the case I think she represents a good bet. Her three runs this time in have been excellent. She just missed at Mornington first up before landing the prize at good odds at Caulfield second up when defeating the subsequent Wangoom winner in I Am Someone. She then made the leap to the 1200m at Caulfield last start and showed great speed but was just left wanting in the final stages as a couple of strong 1200m horses in Iconoclasm and Miss Vixen got over the top of her. I think back to the 1000m here up the straight drawn wide where she can pretty much just run fast down the outside rail she should prove hard to catch. She was very good in her only run down the straight around this time last year and I think if she can maintain the level of form she has shown this time in here in this race she will be hard to run down. Keen to be with her. I think if she is to be beat it will be because she gets the wobbles up late and something storms over the top of her and Superhard is probably the horse I am most nervous of doing that. For that reason I will keep him on side. He won well for us over this track and distance at good odds first up and then he has just been fair at his last couple at Moonee Valley and Caulfield. That first up win was just so dominant though and the fact he returns to the same set up here, drawn out sitting off a strong speed I think he might be capable of replicating a similar performance. If he does he will be hard to hold out so as I said, I want him on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Miss Leonidas and saving with $30 the win on Superhard!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

1:30pm

Suggested

Seberate (No.2) & Thunderdome (No.11)

Dangers

Big Night Out (No.3), Junipal (No.7) & Zaidin (No.12)

This race is over the 1400m for the three year olds. I am pretty keen on one here in Seberate. On a pretty challenging day at Flemington he was probably the galloper that I most wanted to back on the program. His three runs this time in have all been excellent. He was a dominant winner first up at Bendigo when leading all the way before beating all bar the exciting Tarwin second up at Caulfield. Last start in Adelaide things just didn’t work out for him. He jumped well but had plenty of company kick up inside of him early and as a result he was left working out three wide most of the way while the leader East Indiaman led all the way. That race was run in fast time and he looks well placed three weeks into this run. He draws ideally in gate two to get a gun run on the speed and he just looks extremely well weighted with just 52.5kgs on his back. I think he just needs to ensure he holds a position from that inside gate and then ensure he has clear galloping room on straightening and he will most likely be winning. Around the $4+ mark I think he is an excellent bet and wouldn’t be surprised if he started closer to favourite by the time they jumped. Keen. Thunderdome is the horse I am going to save on in the race. I thought he was good last week. He led the field up and fought on well behind Zoutori over the mile and that followed two good runs prior to kick this campaign off. I just though with that mile run under his belt that Steve Baster might try and test a few of these out and run this along up front. He is on the back up, had the run over the longer trip and Baster is an excellent front running rider so I feel he might make a few of these vulnerable. Around the $9-10 mark I am happy to save on him. Junipal is the one I am nervous about. He showed ability last campaign but I still can’t put my finger on just how good he is. He had a recent Kyneton jump out (thanks to MugLogic for pointing that out) where he went OK but I couldn’t read enough into it to back him. I would watch the market though. If good support arrives on the day following on from the fact that he has been pretty firm since markets open then he is probably worth throwing a saving bet on. I will just wait to see what the market does though before I decide on that. As I said though, I am pretty keen on Seberate here I think he is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $4.40 with BetEasy is as good as you will get about Seberate so will lock that in and have $60 the win on him saving with $15 the win on Thunderdome!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Wham (No.6) & I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.12)

Dangers

Declares War (No.1) & Igniter (No.9)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and it is a tough race. I think Wham looks ready to win. His form this time in has been really strong and he is racing like a horse that is looking for this 2000m trip. He got the job done in good fashion first up at Sale which was the first sign that he was going to be in for a pretty solid campaign. He then went on to run well at huge odds in the Bendigo Guineas where he was arguably unlucky not to win. I would have kicked myself had he run a drum that day or won at $91 as I was going to back him and then stopped myself. He then had a bit of a flat run behind Tarwin at his next start before clearly relishing getting up to the mile last start where again you can argue with different luck in running he could have potentially reversed that result on Tarwin. I just think if Tarwin was in this race he would be close to odds on and we are getting $7 about Wham here. He draws out but that doesn’t concern me here on the big track as he will go back and be given plenty of time to wind into his work and I am actually looking forward to seeing him be able to build full momentum on this big track. I think around that $7 mark he is an excellent bet. Keen to be with him. I had something on I’m Dun Dreamin’ last Saturday in the race won by Zoutori and I thought it was a pleasing return. The way the race was run didn’t give him too much chance back inside horses off the speed but I thought he got through the line quite nicely. He is on the quick back up here and rises sharply in distance but I think on to the bigger track and with the wider draw he gets a better setup. I was pretty surprised at the odds he come up in the race. He is around the $30 mark in the early markets and at that price I think he is well worth a ticket here in what is a wide open race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wham here and save with $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' and will lock in the $26 about the latter ($31 if you can get on with Bet365)!

Race Outlay

$45

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Mr Marathon Man (No.3), One More Try (No.9) & Spanner Head (No.11)

Dangers

Husson Eagle (No.5) & Masculino (No.7)

This race is over the 1400m here and I am very much looking forward to seeing the return of One More Try who is a mare I have quite a bit of time for. In what was a pretty lean spring carnival for me last year, in particular Melbourne Cup week, she was a rare highlight when winning as my best bet on Cup Day. That was her third win from as many starts in that campaign and she really went through her grades nicely. She won well first up at Geelong over the 1500m before going to Bendigo and landing nice bets to win second up there. That was the win that told me she was a good horse. She was back off the speed and really rounded her rivals up with ease for a dominant win. She then went to Flemington and got the job done in trying conditions on Cup Day. She just looks a lightly raced mare that is still very much on an upward spiral. She has won five of ten starts and finds a race with a few well exposed types here. He recent trial at Cranbourne suggests to me she has come back well, she draws well here with no weight on her back to get a lovely smother just in behind the speed and if she has improved again since last campaign we might see a pretty good horse in action on Saturday. Keen to be with her. I think Spanner Head is the danger. She was good first up in that Vobis race behind Twitchy Frank at Caulfield. She was back off the speed in the small field that day while the winner Twitchy Frank really controlled things up on speed. Second up at a track she has performed really well at in the past looks a nice set up. She draws well, she also gets in really light at the weights and looks primed to run a big race so keen to be with her. The other horse I want to have something on at big odds is Mr Marathon Man. This bloke jumped out OK prior to resuming in The Wangoom at Warrnambool but the market suggested he was going to need the run that day and he ran accordingly. He was back and never really looked like winning. I thought watching the replay again though that he actually went through the line quite well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a much improved race here second up. The step up in distance is obviously a big plus here and he also draws nicely to take up a much more prominent position in running. I think he might be over the odds here around that $20 mark and as such happy to be with him. The other runner that I am a bit wary of in the race is Masculino. I naturally thought 1400m would be too short for him but his recent trial was quite sharp and he has been kept pretty safe in early markets but he is the one I am going to risk.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on One More Try here, $30 the win on Spanner Head and $15 the win on Mr Marathon Man!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

11:30am

Suggested

Espinola (No.2) & Kubrick (No.4)

Dangers

Diamond Thunder (No.1) & Hulk (No.3)

Racing in Sydney returns to Rosehill this Saturday for what is also a pretty challenging meeting. There are a few deep races and like Flemington I am playing a fair few of them pretty wide. The rail is in the true position and we will be racing on a good track so I would expect horses up on speed would certainly not be disadvantaged in anyway but given we haven’t raced here for some time it will pay to watch the early races closely. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is over the 1200m for the two year olds. This is an interesting race as there looks to be really good early pressure up front and for that reason I thought it might set it up for a horse sitting just off the pace to be really strong at the end of 1200m. For that reason I ended up siding with Espinola and Kubrick. We had a pretty strong tip for Espinola at Wagga when he won on the first day of their carnival which was the last day of The Bool carnival. The win in my opinion was most impressive. He didn’t begin quickly and was second last into stride. He was able to muster speed though and kick through to get into a good position coming to the home turn. He then was able to ease into clear galloping room and really let down strongly to win running away. The trial prior to that first up win was very good and all the signs are that he has come back a much better horse this time in. He draws nicely here in gate three to again get a good smother in behind the speed and I am hopeful that if a few of the leaders overdo it up front that he will be the one coming at them with the last shot. Around the $7-8 mark I am happy to be with him. Kubrick got the job done impressively on debut at Cranbourne and I respect the Waller decision to now switch him up to Sydney. He sat in behind the speed that night at Cranbourne and wore down a well fancied Mick Price two year old and there was a good gap to the third horse. I liked the way he pinned the ears back late and really charged through the line. He should be suited here by the likely good tempo up front and he looks like he will relish stepping up to the 1200m. He draws to get a good trailing run in behind them for Glyn Schofield and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kubrick and $30 the win on Espinola here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Green Reign (No.6), Plonka (No.10) & Wyendra (No.13)

Dangers

Mick The Hat (No.1) & Elm Court (No.9)

This is an interesting highway here over the 1200m. It looks like we might have a few handy types going around in this race. There are quite a few lightly raced horses showing some good promise and they are the horses I am focusing on here rather than the horses that have been punching around in these highways for a while now. The Highway King Matty Dunn brings a couple of runners down from Murwillumbah and one of those is Green Reign who looks a pretty exciting prospect. He has only had the one start for one win in his career back in December at Ipswich and hasn’t raced since. He started a $1.65 favourite that day and came from off the speed to get the cash. He resumed here as a gelding and has had two trials to get him up to the mark and ready for this first up assignment. The most recent one on his home track at Murwillumbah he easily had his rivals covered and won the trial with plenty in hand. I think he might be pretty smart and with Glyn on from a middle gate he looks hard to hold out. Happy to be with him. Plonka makes the journey down from Coffs Harbour and he also looks to be a promising young galloper given what we have seen of him at his first two starts. He started a heavily backed favourite on debut at Grafton and was just touched off before going to Tamworth and being backed as if unbeatable at his second start and bolting in. Ben Looker stays with him here after riding him at his first two starts and he will no doubt want to have him up on speed and in the firing line for most of the way. If that is the place to be early on this program then Plonka might be pretty hard to run past so I want to be saving on him. The other horse I will have something small on is Wyendra. This lightly raced mare returned from a long break with a dominant win at Canberra first up. She had shown ability in previous campaigns and looks to have come back well. She draws to get a good run just off the speed and if they do go a bit mad up front then she might be the one who can pounce on them late. Around the $15-20 mark I think she is worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

It looks a strong lead for Green Reign with Matty Dunn scratching the stable mate! I will have $60 the win on Green Reign and save with $25 the win on Plonka and $10 the win on Wyendra!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

1:55pm

Suggested

Above And Beyond (No.3), Oxford Tycoon (No.4) & Transmitter (No.8)

Dangers

Call Me Royal (No.6), Hostwin Supreme (No.13) & Burning Crown (No.14)

This is a wide open race here. I actually wrestled a little bit with myself over whether to include this race in the preview or not. Given the horses I have come up with are all pretty decent prices I am going to bet as we shouldn’t have to outlay too much to get a decent return. There are quite a few different form lines coming together and that gives us a pretty wide open race. The runner that certainly intrigues me most is Oxford Tycoon. This is a three year old that has shown good ability in his short career to date. In his debut campaign he was competitive in some of the better two year old races around the likes of Sandbar and Santos. He then resumed later in that season following those two good runs to kick off his career in stakes grade and absolutely walked in at Wyong. That signalled to people that he was a pretty handy horse and at his next start he went around a well supported second favourite in the Rosebud. He just didn’t fire a shot that day and finished last and was immediately spelled. Given we haven’t seen him at the races since that would suggest there was an issue. He has had two trials leading into this first up run and gone nicely at both of them without being spectacular. That was what was holding me back from really launching into him here. The trials just didn’t wow me enough. He has had two of them though which suggests to me that he is going to arrive here pretty close to the mark. He draws ideally for Jay Ford to land on speed and I think if all is well with him and he runs to his best, that $7 is probably going to look a pretty good price. Happy to be with him. Transmitter is first up here and has shown some good ability in her career. She went through her grades quite nicely last campaign winning three of her four starts and she looks to be a filly on the improve. Her first up win to break her maiden at Kembla Grange was quite dominant in fact. She has trialled well leading into this suggesting she has come back well and providing Rachel King can offset that wide draw then I think she will be right in the finish. Happy to keep her on side around the $9-10 mark. She has shown speed in her recent trials but given the abundance of speed engaged here I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ridden quiet from that draw and she might be the one having the last shot at them. Above And Beyond is the horse that might improve sharply here. Not a lot went right for him first up on ANZAC Day. He was heavily backed which suggests he has come back well but didn’t show enough speed out of the gates to cross the leaders and was left wide and working. He stuck on fairly but never really looked like winning. He draws an inside gate here so hopefully he can jump and show enough speed to lead. If that is the case and he can do so without using up too much energy early he might be hard to run down. At double figure odds I think he is worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Oxford Tycoon here pretty confident he starts shorter than $7 so happy to lock that price in! If he drifts it is probably a sign we are in trouble! I will have $20 the win on Transmitter and $15 the win on Above And Beyond!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 6

2:35pm

Suggested

Reelem In Ruby (No.9) & Constellations (No.14)

Dangers

Toryjoy (No.6), Jen Rules (No.10) & Alnaas (No.11)

This race is for the fillies and mares over the 1400m and it looks a pretty good race. Reelem In Rubyhas come up pretty short in the market and it is easy to see why based on the way she has returned this time in. She has only had the five starts but is already building up a very impressive record. Last campaign she won well first up before taking on a hot race second up where she was third behind Zalatte and Baller. Her two runs back this time in have been excellent. She was just touched off first up when giving away a long start and again gave away a pretty long start second up but reeled her rivals in to win running away and landing some big bets. She was backed in from $1.65 to $1.45 on track that day. She didn’t let the punters down. She looks to be a filly on the rise going through her grades. She gets into a bigger field here stepping up to the 1400m and I think that will suit her. I think the race might set up a bit better for her. I am hoping from the middle gate Tommy Berry won’t feel the need to get too far back on her here. If he can lob her midfield one off the fence and have her blending into the race within striking distance before the home turn then she is going to be very hard to hold out. On a day that looks pretty tough she looks the one favourite we can really narrow in on and have a decent bet. I think we will get around the $2.50 mark about her on the day just given that slight question mark of where she will be in the run given her pattern. I think around that price she is a good bet and keen to be with her. The horse I am going to save on in the race is Constellations. This mare has only had the two career starts but has clearly come back a much better horse this time in. She had her first start back in October last year on a heavy track at Kembla Grange and she was easy in the market and ran last and immediately spelled. This campaign she trialled well leading into the first up run, was heavily backed and won accordingly at Newcastle. She was never going to lose that race and while the winning margin was just over a length it could have been far greater as she was eased down over the final stages. I like the way she went about it and Anthony Cummings can bring these horses to town with good effect. She draws a nice middle gate and has no weight on her back after the claim for Brock Ryan and I think she looks a real danger to the favourite. At the double figure odds I think she is a good saving bet. Toryjoy has trialled well and I was on her for a few starts last time in and she let us down. I think she is talented and I am a bit nervous about her here but I think she will probably take this run. Should she run well here though we can certainly follow up with her second up as she looks to have come back well. Let’s just hope not too well to the extent that she wins here.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Reelem In Ruby and save with $20 the win on Constellations locking in the $10 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

2:55pm

Suggested

Newsfan (No.5), Desert Lord (No.13) & Oriental Runner (No.16)

Dangers

Deprive (No.6) & Zonk (No.9)

This is probably the race of the day at Rosehill. There are some very promising horses going around here. The issue or potential issue here is that a lot of them are resuming and coming up against some lesser credentialed but fitter gallopers. That does make the race a little bit of a trap but I am still happy to bet into it. DepriveNewsfan and Desert Lord are the three horses that head the market. They all have considerable talent and all have a bit of a boom on them. Deprive only had the three runs last time in but made a big impression. He was beaten as an odds on favourite first up before stringing two excellent wins together in races that proved to be strong form references. He has had two trials leading into this first up assignment and should be hard to beat. He was beaten first up when last in work and even though that was over 1000m and this race is over 1200m I am just a bit wary of him here first up. He trialled to me like a horse that might be looking more for 1400m this time in potentially and given he come up the shortest price of those three resuming runners I was happy to back around him here. When I say happy, I am pretty nervous but going with those at the better price. Newsfan is a serious racehorse. He is another that just had the two runs when last in work. He was a dominant winner over this course and distance first up last time in before going down by the barest of margins over the 1300m here second up. We haven’t seen him at the races since then but he has had two nice trials to have him right for this first up run. I actually don’t mind him drawn out here. I am hoping he can land in a nice trailing position three wide with cover potentially and providing by this stage of the day it isn’t too much of a disadvantage to come a bit wider on the course then I think he might be able to build full momentum while Deprive is potentially locked up in a pocket. The early market suggests I might have that wrong as all the money has been for Deprive but I don’t think Newsfan should be more than double his price which he currently is so given that happy to be with him. I actually thought Desert Lord trialled the best out of all three. His form is certainly known for being better over a bit further but he has only had the one trial earlier in the week for this first up run so he might have a bit more freshness on his side. I just think this is a horse that is going to continue to improve with more racing. He draws ideally in gate four down in the weights for Tommy Berry here and I am hoping he might be able to hold a position not too far off the speed. If he can do that he should be right in the finish if he can run up to that trial. Happy to be with him. Given we are going on about all these fresh horses it wouldn’t surprise me if a fit horse could run well and cause a bit of a boilover. I thought the one at odds that might run a cheeky race was down the bottom in Oreintal Runner. This bloke doesn’t win out of turn but he is clearly fit and racing well. He looked home in the Wagga Town Plate last start but he probably just got left in front too soon and was a bit of a sitting shot late. He has an excellent 1200m record, he draws well and he gets in with absolutely no weight on his back here with just 50kgs after the claim for Brock Ryan. I just thought if there was to be an upset in the race he might be the one to provide it and at the $30 or thereabouts on offer he was worth a small ticket. Zonk was the other horse worth mentioning. She was really good winning first up and should jump close enough to the lead again here. She typically runs a bit of a flat one though second up after a good first up run so for that reason I am risking her in a very good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Newsfan and Desert Lord here and save with $10 the win on Oriental Runner!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:00pm

Suggested

I’m A Rippa (No.1), Violate (No.4), Ever Loyal (No.9) & Addictive Nature (No.11)

Dangers

Tyzone (No.6) & Chapter And Verse (No.10)

This is a cracking race. It is the BRC Sprint over the 1350m and it brings together quite a number of different form lines and quite a few in form horses. The horse with a bit of a buzz about him at the moment is clearly Chapter And Verse following a dominant win three weeks ago. He was first up that day at Eagle Farm and never ever looked like losing. The key was that he was able to lob relatively close to the speed and once they turned for home and he ambled up to the leaders the race looked as good as over and it was. He bounded clear to win by three lengths seemingly with a bit in hand. It was a dominant first up performance. He is starting to build an imposing record. He was well backed that day which suggested that he had come back well and he clearly has. Despite all that I am going to bet against him here. It is risky as he won so well first up but I think Doomben and this race represent a far bigger challenge to that of what he faced first up. He seems to relish racing at Eagle Farm as opposed to here and he certainly comes up against stiffer opposition in this race. Throw in the fact he has come up under $3 and I am just going to bet around him with a few other runners to hopefully get a result. I’m A Rippa looks ready to fire here third up from a spell. He has taken on a couple of strong races to kick off this campaign and while beaten hasn’t been disgraced. He decided to try and lead Redzel first up at Eagle Farm and tired late before leading into the straight last Saturday in the Doomben 10,000 but was ultimately cut down late and finished tenth. Despite finishing tenth he was only beaten just over three lengths. He comes back a notch or two in grade here, he gets up to his pet trip of 1350m. His record over this trip here at Doomben is excellent and he draws gate four to land on the bunny for Jeff Lloyd. Over this longer trip he should be able to find the lead more comfortably here and there doesn’t look to be too many other speed horses in the race so I think Jeff will be able to assume control in front. If that is the case then I’m A Rippa is going to be very hard to run down. Happy to be with him. I am going to keep the Kiwi raider in Ever Loyal on side. We saw this bloke come out to Australia off some good New Zealand form in early March when he ran at Randwick. He was backed relentlessly in that race. He was backed in early fixed odds markets and then normally you will see that even out a bit on course on the day but they kept coming for him on course and started a clear second favourite. He unfortunately performed poorly and was well beaten by Dreamforce and immediately shipped back to New Zealand. I am going to give him another chance here. He had a trial over there recently which he looked to go particularly well in and we know that Tony Pike has a really good record when bringing horse here to Brisbane. Ever Loyal draws ideally in gate five to get a lovely run just off the speed and around the $15 mark I am happy to be with him. Addictive Nature comes into this race third up after two fair runs this time in for the new stable. Danny O’Brien has been getting everything to win recently but he is seemingly struggling to work this horse out. He looked a bit dour first up over the 1200m behind Haunted before being really well backed at Flemington last start and being touched off by Fastnet Tempest in a race where it was hard to find too many excuses for him. I think the addition of blinkers here for the first time is crucial. I think you will see him ridden pretty positively by McEvoy and I have him coming across and landing outside the leader in I’m A Rippa. If he can do that without exerting too much energy I think there is every chance the two of them can own the race out in front so I am happy to be on Addictive Nature at the double figure odds. The mad roughy bet in the race is Violate. He has been taking on some seriously fast races in recent times against some good horses. That form around Streets Of Avalon from his Flemington win four starts back has been really strong and his last three runs have been in races where he probably hasn’t been suited. He struck wet tracks in his two Sydney runs one of which was the Doncaster and he was forced to lead at Bendigo which isn’t his go. I just think if he runs to his best this race is within his grasp. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and the $40-50 that he has come up in early markets looks a big price so he is worth a bet for mine.

Betting strategy

Well the whole point of this strategy is trying to get Chapter And Verse beat! I will have $40 the win on I'm A Rippa, having half now at the $6 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $15 the win on Addictive Nature and Ever Loyal and I will lock in the $16 about Ever Loyal! I will also have $10 the win on Violate!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - Doomben Cup

3:40pm

Suggested

Shillelagh (No.11), Youngstar (No.13) & Sixties Groove (No.17)

Dangers

Life Less Ordinary (No.2), Archedemus (No.6) & Kenedna (No.12)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Doomben Cup and it is another pretty challenging race. The horse I was most keen to back in the race was Sixties Groove the first emergency. I think he is a really big chance here. While a few of these horses in this race have been up for a while and this race may have been a little bit of an afterthought for them he comes into it still very new in this campaign and on the way up potentially. He hit the line well with the big weight first up in the Hawkesbury Cup behind Archedemus and obviously has a significant weight turnaround on that horse here under the weight for age conditions. He also should be open to plenty more improvement coming into this race second up whereas Archedemus has been up for some time so I am confident he can turn the tables on that galloper. Last campaign he came off a similar first up performance to win the Moe Cup second up. This is certainly a harder race than the Moe Cup but I think he finds a pretty good setup. He is unbeaten over the 2000m, he is twice a winner second up and he draws to land in a gun spot just off the speed from gate seven. I just think he is a great chance and the $12 being bet looks a really good price in a wide open race. Happy to be with him. Following on from that rationale I am happy to be with Youngstar who looks to have targeted this race after missing most of the Sydney autumn. The question mark is probably how well she is going following the bone chip operation after the Melbourne Cup last year. She did enough first up in the All Aged behind Pierata before leaping sharply in trip second up last start in the Hollindale and striking that heavy track. She was a big drifter in the betting that day and while she ran well, she never really looked like winning. She comes into this race third up and should be ready to fire. She raced really well here as a three year old through the winter carnival last year and I would expect her to be peaking her at her third run back. You only have to go back to her spring campaign to see that she wasn’t too far off the best horses we had going around and this is by no means a vintage Doomben Cup. I think if she can find her best form and get the right run in transit she will be hard to hold out so as I said I want to be in her corner. I also can’t let Shillelagh go around without me. She does fit into the afterthought category. She has run second in an Australian Cup back in March and then ran fifth in a Doncaster last month. She comes into this race off a five week break after chasing home Winx last start but clearly has a fair bit of class on her side coming into this race. She draws gate two to get the lovely smother in behind them for James McDonald and if he can replicate his ride on her that he produced on Derby Day at Flemington where she burst up the inside rail to win the big mares race to win she should be in the finish here. I don’t want to be losing on the race should she be winning so happy to have something on her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $20 the win on Sixties Groove locking in the $12 about him! I will also have $20 the win on Shillelagh and $35 the win on Youngstar!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:20pm

Suggested

Scarlet Dream (No.1) & Etana (No.14)

Dangers

Aliferous (No.2) & On The White Turf (No.15)

This is The Roses, the final lead up to the Queensland Oaks over the 2000m to finish the day on here. Not surprisingly we are seeing the Sydney form hold up pretty well through this carnival so far and that would certainly indicate that Scarlet Dream will be very hard to beat here should that trend continue. This is a promising staying filly that looks to have the Oaks written all over her. She resumed from a spell this time in with an excellent second at Rosehill before going to Kembla Grange and chasing home Pohutukawa. At her last two runs she has chased home the star filly Verry Elleegant in the Vinery and Oaks. She ran really well in the Oaks beating all bar that star filly. You would expect that form to hold up here. While it is a big field, it features a lot of fillies trying to make their way up through the grades and she is proven and has the form on the board. She has been kept up to the mark since the Oaks with a solid 1200m trial two weeks ago. She was given a good workout that day and certainly went through the line strongly. Blake Shinn rode like a man possessed around this track last week and if he can produce another gem here from what is potentially an awkward wide draw and give Scarlet Dream the right run in transit then you would think she would be winning. I think she just needs that touch of luck. She is around the $2.50 mark in most markets at the moment which looks a fair price and I am happy to be in her corner to finish the day here. I am going to save on Etana just in case. I am convinced this filly is going really well at the moment, she just isn’t getting the best of luck in running. Since winning at Sale five starts back she has been caught wide at Flemington behind Spanish Whisper when not beaten far and then did plenty of work at The Valley behind Princess Jenni. She then came back in trip at Randwick and hit the line well before just having to go back to what was maybe the slower inside part of the track at the Gold Coast last start behind Winning Ways. She was just held up for a run for a few strides there too while a few other horses were building momentum into the race on that heavy track. I thought she went through the line strongly and should be suited here around Doomben. She draws gate two for Johnny Allen so I would expect her to land right on speed and if the favourite Scarlet Dream ends up getting a bit too far back and this filly is on speed and pouncing then she might be hard to get past. At that $9-10 mark I am happy to be saving on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Scarlet Dream here and save with $20 the win on Etana!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 1

12:31pm

Suggested

Ginny Ann (No.5) & Balaabel (No.7)

Dangers

Absolute Flirt (No.3)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday as their carnival comes to a close with the running of the Goodwood Handicap. The racing has been strong in recent weeks and this looks a good meeting to close the carnival out. The preview is starting to get pretty lengthy so I might try and condense this one a bit as none of you will even make it down here by the time you get through the other races. The weather in Adelaide has also been excellent just like Melbourne and as a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday. Like a few of the other venues around the country I am getting started nice and early and kicking off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1200m. Half of the field comes through the race won by Absolute Flirt here two weeks ago so that certainly looks the key form reference. Balaabel was on debut that day when chasing home Absolute Flirt and I am pretty confident that she will be able to turn the tables here. That debut run was over the 1050m and Absolute Flirt was up on speed right behind the two leaders while Balaabel was further back and trying to run those leaders down. Absolute Flirt was just able to steal a march at the top of the straight and despite Balaabel coming strongly late she just failed. I think she is certainly open to more improvement from that debut run and she gives the impression that the step up to the 1200m will suit. All the form around Absolute Flirt has been standing up so I would expect it to again in this race and expect both to run well but I do have a leaning to Balaabel and at the slightly better price I am happy to be with her to improve off the debut run and turn the tables here. I also want to have something on Ginny Ann who won impressively on debut at Warrnambool in a rich Vobis two year old race. There was a fair spruik around for this horse prior to that debut run off a couple of handy jump outs and she was well backed and won accordingly. I like the way she sat off the speed and really pinned the ears back at the top of the straight to run her rivals down. That was over the 1000m and she also gave the impression that she would be suited by the step up to the 12000m here. She draws out but it is a small field so I am not too concerned about her settling back off the speed and if she is within striking distance I think she is capable of being really strong late and getting over the top of them. As I have mentioned a few times, The Bool form is holding up well and as a result I want to be saving on her here.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Balaabel here and save with $25 the win on Ginny Ann!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 3

1:46pm

Suggested

Rock On (No.1), Chequered Flag (No.3) & Nashville Sound (No.11)

Dangers

Valac (No.5) & Instigator (No.10)

This race is for the stayers over the 2500m and it has drawn together a pretty competitive field. This is typically not the type of race I would normally bet into particularly in Adelaide but I thought there were some good betting opportunities here. Nashville Sound in particular is a horse that I am interested in. He has been pretty good to me in his short career so far and he is racing really well this campaign. He is a horse that has always shown good ability but this campaign he has really gone to a new level and started to put it all together. He resumed with a good run at Warrnambool when first up over the 2000m and heavily backed. He just got pipped in that race before he went to Penola and absolutely bolted in their Cup winning easily. He then went to The Bool and looked one of the better bets of the day on the first day of the carnival and he didn’t let his followers down. It was a good ride from Declan Bates as he offset the wide draw early and had him over and across outside the leader very quickly. He then nearly got himself into a spot of bother as a few horses went around him and I thought he was going to miss the boat for a few strides. It turned out well though as he was able to ease across heels in the straight and I love the way he pinned the ears back and gunned his rivals down late to score an easy victory. He looks the horse in the race that is very much on an upward spiral. He is a four year old having just his ninth career start and he is in really good form. He is reunited with Raquel Clark here who rode him in the Penola Cup with such confidence and from a middle gate I imagine he will be landing up on speed again and pretty hard to get past. I am pretty much obliged to stay with him. I think his main opposition may come from this former New Zealand galloper in Rock On. This galloper had his first run for the Gelagotis stable at Caulfield last Saturday where he was just touched off by Alfarris. He loomed up and looked the winner in the straight there but the other horse was just able to kick back and nose him out. Rock On was over a month between runs into that race and that may have just told in the final stages. I think on the back up here with that run under his belt he is going to come to the races fitter and ready to rumble on Saturday. He is a horse that can take up a position on speed and will be in the firing line for most of the way so for that reason happy to be in his corner. The other horse I am going to have something on in the race is Chequered Flag. This galloper is making his name more as a jumper nowadays but he is still a very competent flat horse. He won strongly at Warrnambool on the final day of the carnival and will no doubt probably be using this race as a stepping stone to some of the stronger jumps races later in the season. Like I said though he does have some decent flat ability and his best flat form would certainly be capable of winning a race of this nature. I think because his recent win was over the jumps the market may be ignoring him a little here and for that reason he has come up over the odds. Dwayne Dunn rides and if the others are paddling late he will be really strong and around the $15-20 mark I think he is well worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Nashville Sound here, $25 the win on Rock On and $15 the win on Chequered Flag!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:26pm

Suggested

Nordic Symphony (No.2) & Elusive Rose (No.5)

Dangers

Rock Dove (No.1) & Etheridge (No.6)

This is the SA Fillies Classic for the three year old fillies over the 2500m. Nordic Symphony does look close to the good thing of the day with even luck. She is really starting to put it together this filly and I would think she just needs to maintain her level and have luck in running to be saluting here. Her last three runs have been where I have started following her. I liked her run at Sandown Hillside four starts back and then she was about four to five weeks between runs for her next start where I had something on her at Sandown Lakeside and she had no luck at all behind Zargos. I then had something on her at Flemington where she shared the spoils with Orcein at massive odds. She then came here for the Schweppes Oaks two weeks ago and was pretty unlucky. She was right alongside Princess Jenni in the run but at the moment Princes Jenni went back inside horses and got the run for Ollie, Nordic Symphony was trying to get to the outside and she just got baulked for a run. She had to be eased across heels and lost a fair bit of momentum while Princess Jenni was building up the revs and driving through the middle. Once Nordic Symphony got out she hit the line strongly but the bird had flown. She gave every impression in that race with how she hit the line that she will relish the 2500m here. She draws a lovely gate for Craig Williams to get a good run just off the speed and I think if she gets the luck in running here she will be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her. I am going to save on Elusive Rose who was one of the heartbreak stories from The Bool. I watched that race on the final day she was in with a couple of people in our Jumps Tipping competition and the obviously asked “have you got a tip in this one for us Baron” and I gave them Elusive Rose at around the $25-30 mark. She went forward early landed in the box seat, the leader rolled off the fence, she slipped up the inside and kicked around the bend and looked all over the winner. We were standing at about the 200m mark and when she ran past us we thought she was home and gave her a decent cheer, they then came to the line and two horses dived at her. We couldn’t tell but thought she might have held on. She ended up not even getting second and running third. It was a brutal loss, capped off by the fact the horse I save on was beaten into second in the three way photo. For those fortunate enough to Mount Gambier form on a Friday last week they would have seen her lob there in a very winnable race and she duly got the job done by a big margin. She is big odds again here but she certainly comes into the race in very good form. She looks certain to run the trip right out and has come up around the $25-30 mark here so happy to save on her at that price.

Betting strategy

I will have $90 the win on Nordic Symphony here and save with $10 the win on Elusive Rose!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 7 - The Goodwood

4:26pm

Suggested

Spright (No.2) & Iconoclasm (No.10)

Dangers

Booker (No.1) & Cool Passion (No.8)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Goodwood Handicap over the 1200m. Look, this isn’t a vintage Goodwood by any stretch of the imagination and I found it a pretty difficult race to decipher. I have to include it in the preview though as last year I didn’t include the race and backed Santa Ana Lane at $30 and he got up. So I better not do that this year. Unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any value to that extent here. Adam Blencowe described the race as being like The Wangoom on twitter earlier in the week and it is hard to argue with him. For that reason I stuck to the obvious. Spright is a genuine Group One mare who has raced against some of our best sprinters and been very competitive with them. She finally broke through for an overdue win in the Sangster last start and I am hoping that breakthrough might lead to more wins for her. She is clearly going very well at the moment. The issue with her is obviously her racing pattern. She just gets too far out of her ground. I think Morphettville as a track though is forgiving to her style of racing. It is a straight that generally allows backmarkers plenty of time to build into their work and hit the line strongly. She went back to last or near enough to it last start and was still able to reel her rivals in and do so quite comfortably. I actually don’t think she is too badly off at the weights here being just a few kilos above the minimum given the standard of her opposition. I don’t mind her drawn wide given her pattern and Ollie will know her well now he has had that one ride on her. I think she is just the obvious and happy to be with her again. Iconoclasm is the horse I am going to save on. This former Darren Weir trained galloper has obviously come back well for Danny O’Brien this campaign. He was just really solidly backed all the way through betting first up at Caulfield over the 1200m. It was an excellent ride by Craig Williams too as he just made sure he stayed close enough to Miss Leonidas in the run and knew he would be strong enough to run over her late. He then showed good tenacity to fight off Miss Vixen. I think he is the lightly raced horse on the up that could run a race here. He draws out for Craig and gets some weight relief and I think he can run well so will save on him. It is a tricky race though and had it not been The Goodwood I probably would have been happy to let it go through to the keeper. I am certainly not as keen as the day Glamour Puss won this race back in 2005, but hopefully Danny O’Brien can have similar luck here with Iconoclasm.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Spright here and save with $25 the win on Iconoclasm!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

11:40am

Suggested

The Pugilist (No.3), Ethical Solution (No.9) & St Edward’s Crown (No.11)

Dangers

Independent Road (No.2) & La Lucciola (No.7)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Flemington this Saturday for what certainly looks to be a pretty challenging winter meeting. The weather has turned it on in Melbourne this week and we will be racing on a dry track with Flemington likely to play perfect as per normal. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1400m. This is an interesting race. I have to admit when I did the form initially I was pretty confident that I had found one that might come up good odds in St Edward’s Crown. This filly ran well on debut at Seymour over the 1200m in a fast race for the day and there was a big gap to the second horse. She comes from the Shane Fliedner stable which with no disrespect to Shane isn’t one of the big stables in the state. There was a big gap to the third horse in that race and I thought “yup, I really might have found one at double figure odds here”. Clearly I wasn’t the only one as when I went and looked at the odds after doing the form she had come up around the $6 mark which is roundabouts where I had her marked. I probably had her a fraction shorter. Like I said, the run on debut was good. The winner was just able to build full momentum rounding the home turn while St Edward’s Crown was baulked for a run and had to wait until they straightened to get fully wound up. I am not sure it would have made a difference to the result, but she still went through the line well suggesting the 1400m will suit here and the big gap to the third horse is a good sign typically. She draws a nice middle to wide gate here for Joe Bowditch to settle off the speed and I think with natural improvement from that debut run she can be very competitive here. Happy to be with her. I am turning to Adelaide form for the other two horses I am backing in the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Pugilist turns out the best horse in this race as he looks to have a fair bit of ability. He was beaten as a short priced favourite on debut and then didn’t have the best of luck last start when held up entering the straight. He had to come across the heels of runners and got to the outside while the leader kicked clear and despite closing late just failed. The slight concern with this horse is that both runs have been over 1050m and he makes a sharp leap to the 1400m here. In saying that though both his runs have contained merit, he draws well here and he gives the impression 1400m will suit. For that reason I am going to keep him on side. Ethical Solution comes through might well be a pretty good race on debut. She box seated there and just got left a little flat footed when they sprinted in front. She seemed to hit her straps late I thought when getting to the outside of runners in clear air. The third horse in that race came out and won well last Saturday and I thought she went through the line just as well. She gives the impression 1400m will suit off that 1200m debut, she draws to take up a good position on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on St Edward's Crown here, $25 the win on The Pugilist and $20 the win on Ethical Solution and I am going to lock int he $10 with QLD TAB Fixed Odds about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:50pm

Suggested

Miss Leonidas (No.3) & Superhard (No.6)

Dangers

Bandipur (No.2), Moonlover (No.5) & Smart Coupe (No.7)

This race is down the straight over the 1000m. This is a pretty deep race. There are a few winning chances here. Miss Leonidas looks to get the right set up here. I am hoping we get $3+ for her on the day and if that is the case I think she represents a good bet. Her three runs this time in have been excellent. She just missed at Mornington first up before landing the prize at good odds at Caulfield second up when defeating the subsequent Wangoom winner in I Am Someone. She then made the leap to the 1200m at Caulfield last start and showed great speed but was just left wanting in the final stages as a couple of strong 1200m horses in Iconoclasm and Miss Vixen got over the top of her. I think back to the 1000m here up the straight drawn wide where she can pretty much just run fast down the outside rail she should prove hard to catch. She was very good in her only run down the straight around this time last year and I think if she can maintain the level of form she has shown this time in here in this race she will be hard to run down. Keen to be with her. I think if she is to be beat it will be because she gets the wobbles up late and something storms over the top of her and Superhard is probably the horse I am most nervous of doing that. For that reason I will keep him on side. He won well for us over this track and distance at good odds first up and then he has just been fair at his last couple at Moonee Valley and Caulfield. That first up win was just so dominant though and the fact he returns to the same set up here, drawn out sitting off a strong speed I think he might be capable of replicating a similar performance. If he does he will be hard to hold out so as I said, I want him on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Miss Leonidas and saving with $30 the win on Superhard!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

1:30pm

Suggested

Seberate (No.2) & Thunderdome (No.11)

Dangers

Big Night Out (No.3), Junipal (No.7) & Zaidin (No.12)

This race is over the 1400m for the three year olds. I am pretty keen on one here in Seberate. On a pretty challenging day at Flemington he was probably the galloper that I most wanted to back on the program. His three runs this time in have all been excellent. He was a dominant winner first up at Bendigo when leading all the way before beating all bar the exciting Tarwin second up at Caulfield. Last start in Adelaide things just didn’t work out for him. He jumped well but had plenty of company kick up inside of him early and as a result he was left working out three wide most of the way while the leader East Indiaman led all the way. That race was run in fast time and he looks well placed three weeks into this run. He draws ideally in gate two to get a gun run on the speed and he just looks extremely well weighted with just 52.5kgs on his back. I think he just needs to ensure he holds a position from that inside gate and then ensure he has clear galloping room on straightening and he will most likely be winning. Around the $4+ mark I think he is an excellent bet and wouldn’t be surprised if he started closer to favourite by the time they jumped. Keen. Thunderdome is the horse I am going to save on in the race. I thought he was good last week. He led the field up and fought on well behind Zoutori over the mile and that followed two good runs prior to kick this campaign off. I just though with that mile run under his belt that Steve Baster might try and test a few of these out and run this along up front. He is on the back up, had the run over the longer trip and Baster is an excellent front running rider so I feel he might make a few of these vulnerable. Around the $9-10 mark I am happy to save on him. Junipal is the one I am nervous about. He showed ability last campaign but I still can’t put my finger on just how good he is. He had a recent Kyneton jump out (thanks to MugLogic for pointing that out) where he went OK but I couldn’t read enough into it to back him. I would watch the market though. If good support arrives on the day following on from the fact that he has been pretty firm since markets open then he is probably worth throwing a saving bet on. I will just wait to see what the market does though before I decide on that. As I said though, I am pretty keen on Seberate here I think he is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $4.40 with BetEasy is as good as you will get about Seberate so will lock that in and have $60 the win on him saving with $15 the win on Thunderdome!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Wham (No.6) & I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.12)

Dangers

Declares War (No.1) & Igniter (No.9)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and it is a tough race. I think Wham looks ready to win. His form this time in has been really strong and he is racing like a horse that is looking for this 2000m trip. He got the job done in good fashion first up at Sale which was the first sign that he was going to be in for a pretty solid campaign. He then went on to run well at huge odds in the Bendigo Guineas where he was arguably unlucky not to win. I would have kicked myself had he run a drum that day or won at $91 as I was going to back him and then stopped myself. He then had a bit of a flat run behind Tarwin at his next start before clearly relishing getting up to the mile last start where again you can argue with different luck in running he could have potentially reversed that result on Tarwin. I just think if Tarwin was in this race he would be close to odds on and we are getting $7 about Wham here. He draws out but that doesn’t concern me here on the big track as he will go back and be given plenty of time to wind into his work and I am actually looking forward to seeing him be able to build full momentum on this big track. I think around that $7 mark he is an excellent bet. Keen to be with him. I had something on I’m Dun Dreamin’ last Saturday in the race won by Zoutori and I thought it was a pleasing return. The way the race was run didn’t give him too much chance back inside horses off the speed but I thought he got through the line quite nicely. He is on the quick back up here and rises sharply in distance but I think on to the bigger track and with the wider draw he gets a better setup. I was pretty surprised at the odds he come up in the race. He is around the $30 mark in the early markets and at that price I think he is well worth a ticket here in what is a wide open race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wham here and save with $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' and will lock in the $26 about the latter ($31 if you can get on with Bet365)!

Race Outlay

$45

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Mr Marathon Man (No.3), One More Try (No.9) & Spanner Head (No.11)

Dangers

Husson Eagle (No.5) & Masculino (No.7)

This race is over the 1400m here and I am very much looking forward to seeing the return of One More Try who is a mare I have quite a bit of time for. In what was a pretty lean spring carnival for me last year, in particular Melbourne Cup week, she was a rare highlight when winning as my best bet on Cup Day. That was her third win from as many starts in that campaign and she really went through her grades nicely. She won well first up at Geelong over the 1500m before going to Bendigo and landing nice bets to win second up there. That was the win that told me she was a good horse. She was back off the speed and really rounded her rivals up with ease for a dominant win. She then went to Flemington and got the job done in trying conditions on Cup Day. She just looks a lightly raced mare that is still very much on an upward spiral. She has won five of ten starts and finds a race with a few well exposed types here. He recent trial at Cranbourne suggests to me she has come back well, she draws well here with no weight on her back to get a lovely smother just in behind the speed and if she has improved again since last campaign we might see a pretty good horse in action on Saturday. Keen to be with her. I think Spanner Head is the danger. She was good first up in that Vobis race behind Twitchy Frank at Caulfield. She was back off the speed in the small field that day while the winner Twitchy Frank really controlled things up on speed. Second up at a track she has performed really well at in the past looks a nice set up. She draws well, she also gets in really light at the weights and looks primed to run a big race so keen to be with her. The other horse I want to have something on at big odds is Mr Marathon Man. This bloke jumped out OK prior to resuming in The Wangoom at Warrnambool but the market suggested he was going to need the run that day and he ran accordingly. He was back and never really looked like winning. I thought watching the replay again though that he actually went through the line quite well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a much improved race here second up. The step up in distance is obviously a big plus here and he also draws nicely to take up a much more prominent position in running. I think he might be over the odds here around that $20 mark and as such happy to be with him. The other runner that I am a bit wary of in the race is Masculino. I naturally thought 1400m would be too short for him but his recent trial was quite sharp and he has been kept pretty safe in early markets but he is the one I am going to risk.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on One More Try here, $30 the win on Spanner Head and $15 the win on Mr Marathon Man!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

11:30am

Suggested

Espinola (No.2) & Kubrick (No.4)

Dangers

Diamond Thunder (No.1) & Hulk (No.3)

Racing in Sydney returns to Rosehill this Saturday for what is also a pretty challenging meeting. There are a few deep races and like Flemington I am playing a fair few of them pretty wide. The rail is in the true position and we will be racing on a good track so I would expect horses up on speed would certainly not be disadvantaged in anyway but given we haven’t raced here for some time it will pay to watch the early races closely. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is over the 1200m for the two year olds. This is an interesting race as there looks to be really good early pressure up front and for that reason I thought it might set it up for a horse sitting just off the pace to be really strong at the end of 1200m. For that reason I ended up siding with Espinola and Kubrick. We had a pretty strong tip for Espinola at Wagga when he won on the first day of their carnival which was the last day of The Bool carnival. The win in my opinion was most impressive. He didn’t begin quickly and was second last into stride. He was able to muster speed though and kick through to get into a good position coming to the home turn. He then was able to ease into clear galloping room and really let down strongly to win running away. The trial prior to that first up win was very good and all the signs are that he has come back a much better horse this time in. He draws nicely here in gate three to again get a good smother in behind the speed and I am hopeful that if a few of the leaders overdo it up front that he will be the one coming at them with the last shot. Around the $7-8 mark I am happy to be with him. Kubrick got the job done impressively on debut at Cranbourne and I respect the Waller decision to now switch him up to Sydney. He sat in behind the speed that night at Cranbourne and wore down a well fancied Mick Price two year old and there was a good gap to the third horse. I liked the way he pinned the ears back late and really charged through the line. He should be suited here by the likely good tempo up front and he looks like he will relish stepping up to the 1200m. He draws to get a good trailing run in behind them for Glyn Schofield and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kubrick and $30 the win on Espinola here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Green Reign (No.6), Plonka (No.10) & Wyendra (No.13)

Dangers

Mick The Hat (No.1) & Elm Court (No.9)

This is an interesting highway here over the 1200m. It looks like we might have a few handy types going around in this race. There are quite a few lightly raced horses showing some good promise and they are the horses I am focusing on here rather than the horses that have been punching around in these highways for a while now. The Highway King Matty Dunn brings a couple of runners down from Murwillumbah and one of those is Green Reign who looks a pretty exciting prospect. He has only had the one start for one win in his career back in December at Ipswich and hasn’t raced since. He started a $1.65 favourite that day and came from off the speed to get the cash. He resumed here as a gelding and has had two trials to get him up to the mark and ready for this first up assignment. The most recent one on his home track at Murwillumbah he easily had his rivals covered and won the trial with plenty in hand. I think he might be pretty smart and with Glyn on from a middle gate he looks hard to hold out. Happy to be with him. Plonka makes the journey down from Coffs Harbour and he also looks to be a promising young galloper given what we have seen of him at his first two starts. He started a heavily backed favourite on debut at Grafton and was just touched off before going to Tamworth and being backed as if unbeatable at his second start and bolting in. Ben Looker stays with him here after riding him at his first two starts and he will no doubt want to have him up on speed and in the firing line for most of the way. If that is the place to be early on this program then Plonka might be pretty hard to run past so I want to be saving on him. The other horse I will have something small on is Wyendra. This lightly raced mare returned from a long break with a dominant win at Canberra first up. She had shown ability in previous campaigns and looks to have come back well. She draws to get a good run just off the speed and if they do go a bit mad up front then she might be the one who can pounce on them late. Around the $15-20 mark I think she is worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

It looks a strong lead for Green Reign with Matty Dunn scratching the stable mate! I will have $60 the win on Green Reign and save with $25 the win on Plonka and $10 the win on Wyendra!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

1:55pm

Suggested

Above And Beyond (No.3), Oxford Tycoon (No.4) & Transmitter (No.8)

Dangers

Call Me Royal (No.6), Hostwin Supreme (No.13) & Burning Crown (No.14)

This is a wide open race here. I actually wrestled a little bit with myself over whether to include this race in the preview or not. Given the horses I have come up with are all pretty decent prices I am going to bet as we shouldn’t have to outlay too much to get a decent return. There are quite a few different form lines coming together and that gives us a pretty wide open race. The runner that certainly intrigues me most is Oxford Tycoon. This is a three year old that has shown good ability in his short career to date. In his debut campaign he was competitive in some of the better two year old races around the likes of Sandbar and Santos. He then resumed later in that season following those two good runs to kick off his career in stakes grade and absolutely walked in at Wyong. That signalled to people that he was a pretty handy horse and at his next start he went around a well supported second favourite in the Rosebud. He just didn’t fire a shot that day and finished last and was immediately spelled. Given we haven’t seen him at the races since that would suggest there was an issue. He has had two trials leading into this first up run and gone nicely at both of them without being spectacular. That was what was holding me back from really launching into him here. The trials just didn’t wow me enough. He has had two of them though which suggests to me that he is going to arrive here pretty close to the mark. He draws ideally for Jay Ford to land on speed and I think if all is well with him and he runs to his best, that $7 is probably going to look a pretty good price. Happy to be with him. Transmitter is first up here and has shown some good ability in her career. She went through her grades quite nicely last campaign winning three of her four starts and she looks to be a filly on the improve. Her first up win to break her maiden at Kembla Grange was quite dominant in fact. She has trialled well leading into this suggesting she has come back well and providing Rachel King can offset that wide draw then I think she will be right in the finish. Happy to keep her on side around the $9-10 mark. She has shown speed in her recent trials but given the abundance of speed engaged here I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ridden quiet from that draw and she might be the one having the last shot at them. Above And Beyond is the horse that might improve sharply here. Not a lot went right for him first up on ANZAC Day. He was heavily backed which suggests he has come back well but didn’t show enough speed out of the gates to cross the leaders and was left wide and working. He stuck on fairly but never really looked like winning. He draws an inside gate here so hopefully he can jump and show enough speed to lead. If that is the case and he can do so without using up too much energy early he might be hard to run down. At double figure odds I think he is worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Oxford Tycoon here pretty confident he starts shorter than $7 so happy to lock that price in! If he drifts it is probably a sign we are in trouble! I will have $20 the win on Transmitter and $15 the win on Above And Beyond!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 6

2:35pm

Suggested

Reelem In Ruby (No.9) & Constellations (No.14)

Dangers

Toryjoy (No.6), Jen Rules (No.10) & Alnaas (No.11)

This race is for the fillies and mares over the 1400m and it looks a pretty good race. Reelem In Rubyhas come up pretty short in the market and it is easy to see why based on the way she has returned this time in. She has only had the five starts but is already building up a very impressive record. Last campaign she won well first up before taking on a hot race second up where she was third behind Zalatte and Baller. Her two runs back this time in have been excellent. She was just touched off first up when giving away a long start and again gave away a pretty long start second up but reeled her rivals in to win running away and landing some big bets. She was backed in from $1.65 to $1.45 on track that day. She didn’t let the punters down. She looks to be a filly on the rise going through her grades. She gets into a bigger field here stepping up to the 1400m and I think that will suit her. I think the race might set up a bit better for her. I am hoping from the middle gate Tommy Berry won’t feel the need to get too far back on her here. If he can lob her midfield one off the fence and have her blending into the race within striking distance before the home turn then she is going to be very hard to hold out. On a day that looks pretty tough she looks the one favourite we can really narrow in on and have a decent bet. I think we will get around the $2.50 mark about her on the day just given that slight question mark of where she will be in the run given her pattern. I think around that price she is a good bet and keen to be with her. The horse I am going to save on in the race is Constellations. This mare has only had the two career starts but has clearly come back a much better horse this time in. She had her first start back in October last year on a heavy track at Kembla Grange and she was easy in the market and ran last and immediately spelled. This campaign she trialled well leading into the first up run, was heavily backed and won accordingly at Newcastle. She was never going to lose that race and while the winning margin was just over a length it could have been far greater as she was eased down over the final stages. I like the way she went about it and Anthony Cummings can bring these horses to town with good effect. She draws a nice middle gate and has no weight on her back after the claim for Brock Ryan and I think she looks a real danger to the favourite. At the double figure odds I think she is a good saving bet. Toryjoy has trialled well and I was on her for a few starts last time in and she let us down. I think she is talented and I am a bit nervous about her here but I think she will probably take this run. Should she run well here though we can certainly follow up with her second up as she looks to have come back well. Let’s just hope not too well to the extent that she wins here.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Reelem In Ruby and save with $20 the win on Constellations locking in the $10 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

2:55pm

Suggested

Newsfan (No.5), Desert Lord (No.13) & Oriental Runner (No.16)

Dangers

Deprive (No.6) & Zonk (No.9)

This is probably the race of the day at Rosehill. There are some very promising horses going around here. The issue or potential issue here is that a lot of them are resuming and coming up against some lesser credentialed but fitter gallopers. That does make the race a little bit of a trap but I am still happy to bet into it. DepriveNewsfan and Desert Lord are the three horses that head the market. They all have considerable talent and all have a bit of a boom on them. Deprive only had the three runs last time in but made a big impression. He was beaten as an odds on favourite first up before stringing two excellent wins together in races that proved to be strong form references. He has had two trials leading into this first up assignment and should be hard to beat. He was beaten first up when last in work and even though that was over 1000m and this race is over 1200m I am just a bit wary of him here first up. He trialled to me like a horse that might be looking more for 1400m this time in potentially and given he come up the shortest price of those three resuming runners I was happy to back around him here. When I say happy, I am pretty nervous but going with those at the better price. Newsfan is a serious racehorse. He is another that just had the two runs when last in work. He was a dominant winner over this course and distance first up last time in before going down by the barest of margins over the 1300m here second up. We haven’t seen him at the races since then but he has had two nice trials to have him right for this first up run. I actually don’t mind him drawn out here. I am hoping he can land in a nice trailing position three wide with cover potentially and providing by this stage of the day it isn’t too much of a disadvantage to come a bit wider on the course then I think he might be able to build full momentum while Deprive is potentially locked up in a pocket. The early market suggests I might have that wrong as all the money has been for Deprive but I don’t think Newsfan should be more than double his price which he currently is so given that happy to be with him. I actually thought Desert Lord trialled the best out of all three. His form is certainly known for being better over a bit further but he has only had the one trial earlier in the week for this first up run so he might have a bit more freshness on his side. I just think this is a horse that is going to continue to improve with more racing. He draws ideally in gate four down in the weights for Tommy Berry here and I am hoping he might be able to hold a position not too far off the speed. If he can do that he should be right in the finish if he can run up to that trial. Happy to be with him. Given we are going on about all these fresh horses it wouldn’t surprise me if a fit horse could run well and cause a bit of a boilover. I thought the one at odds that might run a cheeky race was down the bottom in Oreintal Runner. This bloke doesn’t win out of turn but he is clearly fit and racing well. He looked home in the Wagga Town Plate last start but he probably just got left in front too soon and was a bit of a sitting shot late. He has an excellent 1200m record, he draws well and he gets in with absolutely no weight on his back here with just 50kgs after the claim for Brock Ryan. I just thought if there was to be an upset in the race he might be the one to provide it and at the $30 or thereabouts on offer he was worth a small ticket. Zonk was the other horse worth mentioning. She was really good winning first up and should jump close enough to the lead again here. She typically runs a bit of a flat one though second up after a good first up run so for that reason I am risking her in a very good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Newsfan and Desert Lord here and save with $10 the win on Oriental Runner!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:00pm

Suggested

I’m A Rippa (No.1), Violate (No.4), Ever Loyal (No.9) & Addictive Nature (No.11)

Dangers

Tyzone (No.6) & Chapter And Verse (No.10)

This is a cracking race. It is the BRC Sprint over the 1350m and it brings together quite a number of different form lines and quite a few in form horses. The horse with a bit of a buzz about him at the moment is clearly Chapter And Verse following a dominant win three weeks ago. He was first up that day at Eagle Farm and never ever looked like losing. The key was that he was able to lob relatively close to the speed and once they turned for home and he ambled up to the leaders the race looked as good as over and it was. He bounded clear to win by three lengths seemingly with a bit in hand. It was a dominant first up performance. He is starting to build an imposing record. He was well backed that day which suggested that he had come back well and he clearly has. Despite all that I am going to bet against him here. It is risky as he won so well first up but I think Doomben and this race represent a far bigger challenge to that of what he faced first up. He seems to relish racing at Eagle Farm as opposed to here and he certainly comes up against stiffer opposition in this race. Throw in the fact he has come up under $3 and I am just going to bet around him with a few other runners to hopefully get a result. I’m A Rippa looks ready to fire here third up from a spell. He has taken on a couple of strong races to kick off this campaign and while beaten hasn’t been disgraced. He decided to try and lead Redzel first up at Eagle Farm and tired late before leading into the straight last Saturday in the Doomben 10,000 but was ultimately cut down late and finished tenth. Despite finishing tenth he was only beaten just over three lengths. He comes back a notch or two in grade here, he gets up to his pet trip of 1350m. His record over this trip here at Doomben is excellent and he draws gate four to land on the bunny for Jeff Lloyd. Over this longer trip he should be able to find the lead more comfortably here and there doesn’t look to be too many other speed horses in the race so I think Jeff will be able to assume control in front. If that is the case then I’m A Rippa is going to be very hard to run down. Happy to be with him. I am going to keep the Kiwi raider in Ever Loyal on side. We saw this bloke come out to Australia off some good New Zealand form in early March when he ran at Randwick. He was backed relentlessly in that race. He was backed in early fixed odds markets and then normally you will see that even out a bit on course on the day but they kept coming for him on course and started a clear second favourite. He unfortunately performed poorly and was well beaten by Dreamforce and immediately shipped back to New Zealand. I am going to give him another chance here. He had a trial over there recently which he looked to go particularly well in and we know that Tony Pike has a really good record when bringing horse here to Brisbane. Ever Loyal draws ideally in gate five to get a lovely run just off the speed and around the $15 mark I am happy to be with him. Addictive Nature comes into this race third up after two fair runs this time in for the new stable. Danny O’Brien has been getting everything to win recently but he is seemingly struggling to work this horse out. He looked a bit dour first up over the 1200m behind Haunted before being really well backed at Flemington last start and being touched off by Fastnet Tempest in a race where it was hard to find too many excuses for him. I think the addition of blinkers here for the first time is crucial. I think you will see him ridden pretty positively by McEvoy and I have him coming across and landing outside the leader in I’m A Rippa. If he can do that without exerting too much energy I think there is every chance the two of them can own the race out in front so I am happy to be on Addictive Nature at the double figure odds. The mad roughy bet in the race is Violate. He has been taking on some seriously fast races in recent times against some good horses. That form around Streets Of Avalon from his Flemington win four starts back has been really strong and his last three runs have been in races where he probably hasn’t been suited. He struck wet tracks in his two Sydney runs one of which was the Doncaster and he was forced to lead at Bendigo which isn’t his go. I just think if he runs to his best this race is within his grasp. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and the $40-50 that he has come up in early markets looks a big price so he is worth a bet for mine.

Betting strategy

Well the whole point of this strategy is trying to get Chapter And Verse beat! I will have $40 the win on I'm A Rippa, having half now at the $6 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $15 the win on Addictive Nature and Ever Loyal and I will lock in the $16 about Ever Loyal! I will also have $10 the win on Violate!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - Doomben Cup

3:40pm

Suggested

Shillelagh (No.11), Youngstar (No.13) & Sixties Groove (No.17)

Dangers

Life Less Ordinary (No.2), Archedemus (No.6) & Kenedna (No.12)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Doomben Cup and it is another pretty challenging race. The horse I was most keen to back in the race was Sixties Groove the first emergency. I think he is a really big chance here. While a few of these horses in this race have been up for a while and this race may have been a little bit of an afterthought for them he comes into it still very new in this campaign and on the way up potentially. He hit the line well with the big weight first up in the Hawkesbury Cup behind Archedemus and obviously has a significant weight turnaround on that horse here under the weight for age conditions. He also should be open to plenty more improvement coming into this race second up whereas Archedemus has been up for some time so I am confident he can turn the tables on that galloper. Last campaign he came off a similar first up performance to win the Moe Cup second up. This is certainly a harder race than the Moe Cup but I think he finds a pretty good setup. He is unbeaten over the 2000m, he is twice a winner second up and he draws to land in a gun spot just off the speed from gate seven. I just think he is a great chance and the $12 being bet looks a really good price in a wide open race. Happy to be with him. Following on from that rationale I am happy to be with Youngstar who looks to have targeted this race after missing most of the Sydney autumn. The question mark is probably how well she is going following the bone chip operation after the Melbourne Cup last year. She did enough first up in the All Aged behind Pierata before leaping sharply in trip second up last start in the Hollindale and striking that heavy track. She was a big drifter in the betting that day and while she ran well, she never really looked like winning. She comes into this race third up and should be ready to fire. She raced really well here as a three year old through the winter carnival last year and I would expect her to be peaking her at her third run back. You only have to go back to her spring campaign to see that she wasn’t too far off the best horses we had going around and this is by no means a vintage Doomben Cup. I think if she can find her best form and get the right run in transit she will be hard to hold out so as I said I want to be in her corner. I also can’t let Shillelagh go around without me. She does fit into the afterthought category. She has run second in an Australian Cup back in March and then ran fifth in a Doncaster last month. She comes into this race off a five week break after chasing home Winx last start but clearly has a fair bit of class on her side coming into this race. She draws gate two to get the lovely smother in behind them for James McDonald and if he can replicate his ride on her that he produced on Derby Day at Flemington where she burst up the inside rail to win the big mares race to win she should be in the finish here. I don’t want to be losing on the race should she be winning so happy to have something on her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $20 the win on Sixties Groove locking in the $12 about him! I will also have $20 the win on Shillelagh and $35 the win on Youngstar!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:20pm

Suggested

Scarlet Dream (No.1) & Etana (No.14)

Dangers

Aliferous (No.2) & On The White Turf (No.15)

This is The Roses, the final lead up to the Queensland Oaks over the 2000m to finish the day on here. Not surprisingly we are seeing the Sydney form hold up pretty well through this carnival so far and that would certainly indicate that Scarlet Dream will be very hard to beat here should that trend continue. This is a promising staying filly that looks to have the Oaks written all over her. She resumed from a spell this time in with an excellent second at Rosehill before going to Kembla Grange and chasing home Pohutukawa. At her last two runs she has chased home the star filly Verry Elleegant in the Vinery and Oaks. She ran really well in the Oaks beating all bar that star filly. You would expect that form to hold up here. While it is a big field, it features a lot of fillies trying to make their way up through the grades and she is proven and has the form on the board. She has been kept up to the mark since the Oaks with a solid 1200m trial two weeks ago. She was given a good workout that day and certainly went through the line strongly. Blake Shinn rode like a man possessed around this track last week and if he can produce another gem here from what is potentially an awkward wide draw and give Scarlet Dream the right run in transit then you would think she would be winning. I think she just needs that touch of luck. She is around the $2.50 mark in most markets at the moment which looks a fair price and I am happy to be in her corner to finish the day here. I am going to save on Etana just in case. I am convinced this filly is going really well at the moment, she just isn’t getting the best of luck in running. Since winning at Sale five starts back she has been caught wide at Flemington behind Spanish Whisper when not beaten far and then did plenty of work at The Valley behind Princess Jenni. She then came back in trip at Randwick and hit the line well before just having to go back to what was maybe the slower inside part of the track at the Gold Coast last start behind Winning Ways. She was just held up for a run for a few strides there too while a few other horses were building momentum into the race on that heavy track. I thought she went through the line strongly and should be suited here around Doomben. She draws gate two for Johnny Allen so I would expect her to land right on speed and if the favourite Scarlet Dream ends up getting a bit too far back and this filly is on speed and pouncing then she might be hard to get past. At that $9-10 mark I am happy to be saving on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Scarlet Dream here and save with $20 the win on Etana!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 1

12:31pm

Suggested

Ginny Ann (No.5) & Balaabel (No.7)

Dangers

Absolute Flirt (No.3)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday as their carnival comes to a close with the running of the Goodwood Handicap. The racing has been strong in recent weeks and this looks a good meeting to close the carnival out. The preview is starting to get pretty lengthy so I might try and condense this one a bit as none of you will even make it down here by the time you get through the other races. The weather in Adelaide has also been excellent just like Melbourne and as a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday. Like a few of the other venues around the country I am getting started nice and early and kicking off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1200m. Half of the field comes through the race won by Absolute Flirt here two weeks ago so that certainly looks the key form reference. Balaabel was on debut that day when chasing home Absolute Flirt and I am pretty confident that she will be able to turn the tables here. That debut run was over the 1050m and Absolute Flirt was up on speed right behind the two leaders while Balaabel was further back and trying to run those leaders down. Absolute Flirt was just able to steal a march at the top of the straight and despite Balaabel coming strongly late she just failed. I think she is certainly open to more improvement from that debut run and she gives the impression that the step up to the 1200m will suit. All the form around Absolute Flirt has been standing up so I would expect it to again in this race and expect both to run well but I do have a leaning to Balaabel and at the slightly better price I am happy to be with her to improve off the debut run and turn the tables here. I also want to have something on Ginny Ann who won impressively on debut at Warrnambool in a rich Vobis two year old race. There was a fair spruik around for this horse prior to that debut run off a couple of handy jump outs and she was well backed and won accordingly. I like the way she sat off the speed and really pinned the ears back at the top of the straight to run her rivals down. That was over the 1000m and she also gave the impression that she would be suited by the step up to the 12000m here. She draws out but it is a small field so I am not too concerned about her settling back off the speed and if she is within striking distance I think she is capable of being really strong late and getting over the top of them. As I have mentioned a few times, The Bool form is holding up well and as a result I want to be saving on her here.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Balaabel here and save with $25 the win on Ginny Ann!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 3

1:46pm

Suggested

Rock On (No.1), Chequered Flag (No.3) & Nashville Sound (No.11)

Dangers

Valac (No.5) & Instigator (No.10)

This race is for the stayers over the 2500m and it has drawn together a pretty competitive field. This is typically not the type of race I would normally bet into particularly in Adelaide but I thought there were some good betting opportunities here. Nashville Sound in particular is a horse that I am interested in. He has been pretty good to me in his short career so far and he is racing really well this campaign. He is a horse that has always shown good ability but this campaign he has really gone to a new level and started to put it all together. He resumed with a good run at Warrnambool when first up over the 2000m and heavily backed. He just got pipped in that race before he went to Penola and absolutely bolted in their Cup winning easily. He then went to The Bool and looked one of the better bets of the day on the first day of the carnival and he didn’t let his followers down. It was a good ride from Declan Bates as he offset the wide draw early and had him over and across outside the leader very quickly. He then nearly got himself into a spot of bother as a few horses went around him and I thought he was going to miss the boat for a few strides. It turned out well though as he was able to ease across heels in the straight and I love the way he pinned the ears back and gunned his rivals down late to score an easy victory. He looks the horse in the race that is very much on an upward spiral. He is a four year old having just his ninth career start and he is in really good form. He is reunited with Raquel Clark here who rode him in the Penola Cup with such confidence and from a middle gate I imagine he will be landing up on speed again and pretty hard to get past. I am pretty much obliged to stay with him. I think his main opposition may come from this former New Zealand galloper in Rock On. This galloper had his first run for the Gelagotis stable at Caulfield last Saturday where he was just touched off by Alfarris. He loomed up and looked the winner in the straight there but the other horse was just able to kick back and nose him out. Rock On was over a month between runs into that race and that may have just told in the final stages. I think on the back up here with that run under his belt he is going to come to the races fitter and ready to rumble on Saturday. He is a horse that can take up a position on speed and will be in the firing line for most of the way so for that reason happy to be in his corner. The other horse I am going to have something on in the race is Chequered Flag. This galloper is making his name more as a jumper nowadays but he is still a very competent flat horse. He won strongly at Warrnambool on the final day of the carnival and will no doubt probably be using this race as a stepping stone to some of the stronger jumps races later in the season. Like I said though he does have some decent flat ability and his best flat form would certainly be capable of winning a race of this nature. I think because his recent win was over the jumps the market may be ignoring him a little here and for that reason he has come up over the odds. Dwayne Dunn rides and if the others are paddling late he will be really strong and around the $15-20 mark I think he is well worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Nashville Sound here, $25 the win on Rock On and $15 the win on Chequered Flag!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:26pm

Suggested

Nordic Symphony (No.2) & Elusive Rose (No.5)

Dangers

Rock Dove (No.1) & Etheridge (No.6)

This is the SA Fillies Classic for the three year old fillies over the 2500m. Nordic Symphony does look close to the good thing of the day with even luck. She is really starting to put it together this filly and I would think she just needs to maintain her level and have luck in running to be saluting here. Her last three runs have been where I have started following her. I liked her run at Sandown Hillside four starts back and then she was about four to five weeks between runs for her next start where I had something on her at Sandown Lakeside and she had no luck at all behind Zargos. I then had something on her at Flemington where she shared the spoils with Orcein at massive odds. She then came here for the Schweppes Oaks two weeks ago and was pretty unlucky. She was right alongside Princess Jenni in the run but at the moment Princes Jenni went back inside horses and got the run for Ollie, Nordic Symphony was trying to get to the outside and she just got baulked for a run. She had to be eased across heels and lost a fair bit of momentum while Princess Jenni was building up the revs and driving through the middle. Once Nordic Symphony got out she hit the line strongly but the bird had flown. She gave every impression in that race with how she hit the line that she will relish the 2500m here. She draws a lovely gate for Craig Williams to get a good run just off the speed and I think if she gets the luck in running here she will be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her. I am going to save on Elusive Rose who was one of the heartbreak stories from The Bool. I watched that race on the final day she was in with a couple of people in our Jumps Tipping competition and the obviously asked “have you got a tip in this one for us Baron” and I gave them Elusive Rose at around the $25-30 mark. She went forward early landed in the box seat, the leader rolled off the fence, she slipped up the inside and kicked around the bend and looked all over the winner. We were standing at about the 200m mark and when she ran past us we thought she was home and gave her a decent cheer, they then came to the line and two horses dived at her. We couldn’t tell but thought she might have held on. She ended up not even getting second and running third. It was a brutal loss, capped off by the fact the horse I save on was beaten into second in the three way photo. For those fortunate enough to Mount Gambier form on a Friday last week they would have seen her lob there in a very winnable race and she duly got the job done by a big margin. She is big odds again here but she certainly comes into the race in very good form. She looks certain to run the trip right out and has come up around the $25-30 mark here so happy to save on her at that price.

Betting strategy

I will have $90 the win on Nordic Symphony here and save with $10 the win on Elusive Rose!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 7 - The Goodwood

4:26pm

Suggested

Spright (No.2) & Iconoclasm (No.10)

Dangers

Booker (No.1) & Cool Passion (No.8)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Goodwood Handicap over the 1200m. Look, this isn’t a vintage Goodwood by any stretch of the imagination and I found it a pretty difficult race to decipher. I have to include it in the preview though as last year I didn’t include the race and backed Santa Ana Lane at $30 and he got up. So I better not do that this year. Unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any value to that extent here. Adam Blencowe described the race as being like The Wangoom on twitter earlier in the week and it is hard to argue with him. For that reason I stuck to the obvious. Spright is a genuine Group One mare who has raced against some of our best sprinters and been very competitive with them. She finally broke through for an overdue win in the Sangster last start and I am hoping that breakthrough might lead to more wins for her. She is clearly going very well at the moment. The issue with her is obviously her racing pattern. She just gets too far out of her ground. I think Morphettville as a track though is forgiving to her style of racing. It is a straight that generally allows backmarkers plenty of time to build into their work and hit the line strongly. She went back to last or near enough to it last start and was still able to reel her rivals in and do so quite comfortably. I actually don’t think she is too badly off at the weights here being just a few kilos above the minimum given the standard of her opposition. I don’t mind her drawn wide given her pattern and Ollie will know her well now he has had that one ride on her. I think she is just the obvious and happy to be with her again. Iconoclasm is the horse I am going to save on. This former Darren Weir trained galloper has obviously come back well for Danny O’Brien this campaign. He was just really solidly backed all the way through betting first up at Caulfield over the 1200m. It was an excellent ride by Craig Williams too as he just made sure he stayed close enough to Miss Leonidas in the run and knew he would be strong enough to run over her late. He then showed good tenacity to fight off Miss Vixen. I think he is the lightly raced horse on the up that could run a race here. He draws out for Craig and gets some weight relief and I think he can run well so will save on him. It is a tricky race though and had it not been The Goodwood I probably would have been happy to let it go through to the keeper. I am certainly not as keen as the day Glamour Puss won this race back in 2005, but hopefully Danny O’Brien can have similar luck here with Iconoclasm.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Spright here and save with $25 the win on Iconoclasm!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 1

11:40am

Suggested

The Pugilist (No.3), Ethical Solution (No.9) & St Edward’s Crown (No.11)

Dangers

Independent Road (No.2) & La Lucciola (No.7)

Racing in Melbourne comes from Flemington this Saturday for what certainly looks to be a pretty challenging winter meeting. The weather has turned it on in Melbourne this week and we will be racing on a dry track with Flemington likely to play perfect as per normal. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1400m. This is an interesting race. I have to admit when I did the form initially I was pretty confident that I had found one that might come up good odds in St Edward’s Crown. This filly ran well on debut at Seymour over the 1200m in a fast race for the day and there was a big gap to the second horse. She comes from the Shane Fliedner stable which with no disrespect to Shane isn’t one of the big stables in the state. There was a big gap to the third horse in that race and I thought “yup, I really might have found one at double figure odds here”. Clearly I wasn’t the only one as when I went and looked at the odds after doing the form she had come up around the $6 mark which is roundabouts where I had her marked. I probably had her a fraction shorter. Like I said, the run on debut was good. The winner was just able to build full momentum rounding the home turn while St Edward’s Crown was baulked for a run and had to wait until they straightened to get fully wound up. I am not sure it would have made a difference to the result, but she still went through the line well suggesting the 1400m will suit here and the big gap to the third horse is a good sign typically. She draws a nice middle to wide gate here for Joe Bowditch to settle off the speed and I think with natural improvement from that debut run she can be very competitive here. Happy to be with her. I am turning to Adelaide form for the other two horses I am backing in the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Pugilist turns out the best horse in this race as he looks to have a fair bit of ability. He was beaten as a short priced favourite on debut and then didn’t have the best of luck last start when held up entering the straight. He had to come across the heels of runners and got to the outside while the leader kicked clear and despite closing late just failed. The slight concern with this horse is that both runs have been over 1050m and he makes a sharp leap to the 1400m here. In saying that though both his runs have contained merit, he draws well here and he gives the impression 1400m will suit. For that reason I am going to keep him on side. Ethical Solution comes through might well be a pretty good race on debut. She box seated there and just got left a little flat footed when they sprinted in front. She seemed to hit her straps late I thought when getting to the outside of runners in clear air. The third horse in that race came out and won well last Saturday and I thought she went through the line just as well. She gives the impression 1400m will suit off that 1200m debut, she draws to take up a good position on speed and at double figure odds I am happy to save on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on St Edward's Crown here, $25 the win on The Pugilist and $20 the win on Ethical Solution and I am going to lock int he $10 with QLD TAB Fixed Odds about the latter!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 3

12:50pm

Suggested

Miss Leonidas (No.3) & Superhard (No.6)

Dangers

Bandipur (No.2), Moonlover (No.5) & Smart Coupe (No.7)

This race is down the straight over the 1000m. This is a pretty deep race. There are a few winning chances here. Miss Leonidas looks to get the right set up here. I am hoping we get $3+ for her on the day and if that is the case I think she represents a good bet. Her three runs this time in have been excellent. She just missed at Mornington first up before landing the prize at good odds at Caulfield second up when defeating the subsequent Wangoom winner in I Am Someone. She then made the leap to the 1200m at Caulfield last start and showed great speed but was just left wanting in the final stages as a couple of strong 1200m horses in Iconoclasm and Miss Vixen got over the top of her. I think back to the 1000m here up the straight drawn wide where she can pretty much just run fast down the outside rail she should prove hard to catch. She was very good in her only run down the straight around this time last year and I think if she can maintain the level of form she has shown this time in here in this race she will be hard to run down. Keen to be with her. I think if she is to be beat it will be because she gets the wobbles up late and something storms over the top of her and Superhard is probably the horse I am most nervous of doing that. For that reason I will keep him on side. He won well for us over this track and distance at good odds first up and then he has just been fair at his last couple at Moonee Valley and Caulfield. That first up win was just so dominant though and the fact he returns to the same set up here, drawn out sitting off a strong speed I think he might be capable of replicating a similar performance. If he does he will be hard to hold out so as I said, I want him on side.

Betting strategy

I will have $60 the win on Miss Leonidas and saving with $30 the win on Superhard!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 4

1:30pm

Suggested

Seberate (No.2) & Thunderdome (No.11)

Dangers

Big Night Out (No.3), Junipal (No.7) & Zaidin (No.12)

This race is over the 1400m for the three year olds. I am pretty keen on one here in Seberate. On a pretty challenging day at Flemington he was probably the galloper that I most wanted to back on the program. His three runs this time in have all been excellent. He was a dominant winner first up at Bendigo when leading all the way before beating all bar the exciting Tarwin second up at Caulfield. Last start in Adelaide things just didn’t work out for him. He jumped well but had plenty of company kick up inside of him early and as a result he was left working out three wide most of the way while the leader East Indiaman led all the way. That race was run in fast time and he looks well placed three weeks into this run. He draws ideally in gate two to get a gun run on the speed and he just looks extremely well weighted with just 52.5kgs on his back. I think he just needs to ensure he holds a position from that inside gate and then ensure he has clear galloping room on straightening and he will most likely be winning. Around the $4+ mark I think he is an excellent bet and wouldn’t be surprised if he started closer to favourite by the time they jumped. Keen. Thunderdome is the horse I am going to save on in the race. I thought he was good last week. He led the field up and fought on well behind Zoutori over the mile and that followed two good runs prior to kick this campaign off. I just though with that mile run under his belt that Steve Baster might try and test a few of these out and run this along up front. He is on the back up, had the run over the longer trip and Baster is an excellent front running rider so I feel he might make a few of these vulnerable. Around the $9-10 mark I am happy to save on him. Junipal is the one I am nervous about. He showed ability last campaign but I still can’t put my finger on just how good he is. He had a recent Kyneton jump out (thanks to MugLogic for pointing that out) where he went OK but I couldn’t read enough into it to back him. I would watch the market though. If good support arrives on the day following on from the fact that he has been pretty firm since markets open then he is probably worth throwing a saving bet on. I will just wait to see what the market does though before I decide on that. As I said though, I am pretty keen on Seberate here I think he is the one to beat.

Betting strategy

I reckon the $4.40 with BetEasy is as good as you will get about Seberate so will lock that in and have $60 the win on him saving with $15 the win on Thunderdome!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 7

3:30pm

Suggested

Wham (No.6) & I’m Dun Dreamin’ (No.12)

Dangers

Declares War (No.1) & Igniter (No.9)

This race is over the 2000m for the three year olds and it is a tough race. I think Wham looks ready to win. His form this time in has been really strong and he is racing like a horse that is looking for this 2000m trip. He got the job done in good fashion first up at Sale which was the first sign that he was going to be in for a pretty solid campaign. He then went on to run well at huge odds in the Bendigo Guineas where he was arguably unlucky not to win. I would have kicked myself had he run a drum that day or won at $91 as I was going to back him and then stopped myself. He then had a bit of a flat run behind Tarwin at his next start before clearly relishing getting up to the mile last start where again you can argue with different luck in running he could have potentially reversed that result on Tarwin. I just think if Tarwin was in this race he would be close to odds on and we are getting $7 about Wham here. He draws out but that doesn’t concern me here on the big track as he will go back and be given plenty of time to wind into his work and I am actually looking forward to seeing him be able to build full momentum on this big track. I think around that $7 mark he is an excellent bet. Keen to be with him. I had something on I’m Dun Dreamin’ last Saturday in the race won by Zoutori and I thought it was a pleasing return. The way the race was run didn’t give him too much chance back inside horses off the speed but I thought he got through the line quite nicely. He is on the quick back up here and rises sharply in distance but I think on to the bigger track and with the wider draw he gets a better setup. I was pretty surprised at the odds he come up in the race. He is around the $30 mark in the early markets and at that price I think he is well worth a ticket here in what is a wide open race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Wham here and save with $10 the win on I'm Dun Dreamin' and will lock in the $26 about the latter ($31 if you can get on with Bet365)!

Race Outlay

$45

Race 8

4:10pm

Suggested

Mr Marathon Man (No.3), One More Try (No.9) & Spanner Head (No.11)

Dangers

Husson Eagle (No.5) & Masculino (No.7)

This race is over the 1400m here and I am very much looking forward to seeing the return of One More Try who is a mare I have quite a bit of time for. In what was a pretty lean spring carnival for me last year, in particular Melbourne Cup week, she was a rare highlight when winning as my best bet on Cup Day. That was her third win from as many starts in that campaign and she really went through her grades nicely. She won well first up at Geelong over the 1500m before going to Bendigo and landing nice bets to win second up there. That was the win that told me she was a good horse. She was back off the speed and really rounded her rivals up with ease for a dominant win. She then went to Flemington and got the job done in trying conditions on Cup Day. She just looks a lightly raced mare that is still very much on an upward spiral. She has won five of ten starts and finds a race with a few well exposed types here. He recent trial at Cranbourne suggests to me she has come back well, she draws well here with no weight on her back to get a lovely smother just in behind the speed and if she has improved again since last campaign we might see a pretty good horse in action on Saturday. Keen to be with her. I think Spanner Head is the danger. She was good first up in that Vobis race behind Twitchy Frank at Caulfield. She was back off the speed in the small field that day while the winner Twitchy Frank really controlled things up on speed. Second up at a track she has performed really well at in the past looks a nice set up. She draws well, she also gets in really light at the weights and looks primed to run a big race so keen to be with her. The other horse I want to have something on at big odds is Mr Marathon Man. This bloke jumped out OK prior to resuming in The Wangoom at Warrnambool but the market suggested he was going to need the run that day and he ran accordingly. He was back and never really looked like winning. I thought watching the replay again though that he actually went through the line quite well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a much improved race here second up. The step up in distance is obviously a big plus here and he also draws nicely to take up a much more prominent position in running. I think he might be over the odds here around that $20 mark and as such happy to be with him. The other runner that I am a bit wary of in the race is Masculino. I naturally thought 1400m would be too short for him but his recent trial was quite sharp and he has been kept pretty safe in early markets but he is the one I am going to risk.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on One More Try here, $30 the win on Spanner Head and $15 the win on Mr Marathon Man!

Race Outlay

$85

Race 1

11:30am

Suggested

Espinola (No.2) & Kubrick (No.4)

Dangers

Diamond Thunder (No.1) & Hulk (No.3)

Racing in Sydney returns to Rosehill this Saturday for what is also a pretty challenging meeting. There are a few deep races and like Flemington I am playing a fair few of them pretty wide. The rail is in the true position and we will be racing on a good track so I would expect horses up on speed would certainly not be disadvantaged in anyway but given we haven’t raced here for some time it will pay to watch the early races closely. I am kicking the day off in the first race which is over the 1200m for the two year olds. This is an interesting race as there looks to be really good early pressure up front and for that reason I thought it might set it up for a horse sitting just off the pace to be really strong at the end of 1200m. For that reason I ended up siding with Espinola and Kubrick. We had a pretty strong tip for Espinola at Wagga when he won on the first day of their carnival which was the last day of The Bool carnival. The win in my opinion was most impressive. He didn’t begin quickly and was second last into stride. He was able to muster speed though and kick through to get into a good position coming to the home turn. He then was able to ease into clear galloping room and really let down strongly to win running away. The trial prior to that first up win was very good and all the signs are that he has come back a much better horse this time in. He draws nicely here in gate three to again get a good smother in behind the speed and I am hopeful that if a few of the leaders overdo it up front that he will be the one coming at them with the last shot. Around the $7-8 mark I am happy to be with him. Kubrick got the job done impressively on debut at Cranbourne and I respect the Waller decision to now switch him up to Sydney. He sat in behind the speed that night at Cranbourne and wore down a well fancied Mick Price two year old and there was a good gap to the third horse. I liked the way he pinned the ears back late and really charged through the line. He should be suited here by the likely good tempo up front and he looks like he will relish stepping up to the 1200m. He draws to get a good trailing run in behind them for Glyn Schofield and I am happy to be with him.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Kubrick and $30 the win on Espinola here!

Race Outlay

$70

Race 2

12:05pm

Suggested

Green Reign (No.6), Plonka (No.10) & Wyendra (No.13)

Dangers

Mick The Hat (No.1) & Elm Court (No.9)

This is an interesting highway here over the 1200m. It looks like we might have a few handy types going around in this race. There are quite a few lightly raced horses showing some good promise and they are the horses I am focusing on here rather than the horses that have been punching around in these highways for a while now. The Highway King Matty Dunn brings a couple of runners down from Murwillumbah and one of those is Green Reign who looks a pretty exciting prospect. He has only had the one start for one win in his career back in December at Ipswich and hasn’t raced since. He started a $1.65 favourite that day and came from off the speed to get the cash. He resumed here as a gelding and has had two trials to get him up to the mark and ready for this first up assignment. The most recent one on his home track at Murwillumbah he easily had his rivals covered and won the trial with plenty in hand. I think he might be pretty smart and with Glyn on from a middle gate he looks hard to hold out. Happy to be with him. Plonka makes the journey down from Coffs Harbour and he also looks to be a promising young galloper given what we have seen of him at his first two starts. He started a heavily backed favourite on debut at Grafton and was just touched off before going to Tamworth and being backed as if unbeatable at his second start and bolting in. Ben Looker stays with him here after riding him at his first two starts and he will no doubt want to have him up on speed and in the firing line for most of the way. If that is the place to be early on this program then Plonka might be pretty hard to run past so I want to be saving on him. The other horse I will have something small on is Wyendra. This lightly raced mare returned from a long break with a dominant win at Canberra first up. She had shown ability in previous campaigns and looks to have come back well. She draws to get a good run just off the speed and if they do go a bit mad up front then she might be the one who can pounce on them late. Around the $15-20 mark I think she is worth a small ticket.

Betting strategy

It looks a strong lead for Green Reign with Matty Dunn scratching the stable mate! I will have $60 the win on Green Reign and save with $25 the win on Plonka and $10 the win on Wyendra!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 5

1:55pm

Suggested

Above And Beyond (No.3), Oxford Tycoon (No.4) & Transmitter (No.8)

Dangers

Call Me Royal (No.6), Hostwin Supreme (No.13) & Burning Crown (No.14)

This is a wide open race here. I actually wrestled a little bit with myself over whether to include this race in the preview or not. Given the horses I have come up with are all pretty decent prices I am going to bet as we shouldn’t have to outlay too much to get a decent return. There are quite a few different form lines coming together and that gives us a pretty wide open race. The runner that certainly intrigues me most is Oxford Tycoon. This is a three year old that has shown good ability in his short career to date. In his debut campaign he was competitive in some of the better two year old races around the likes of Sandbar and Santos. He then resumed later in that season following those two good runs to kick off his career in stakes grade and absolutely walked in at Wyong. That signalled to people that he was a pretty handy horse and at his next start he went around a well supported second favourite in the Rosebud. He just didn’t fire a shot that day and finished last and was immediately spelled. Given we haven’t seen him at the races since that would suggest there was an issue. He has had two trials leading into this first up run and gone nicely at both of them without being spectacular. That was what was holding me back from really launching into him here. The trials just didn’t wow me enough. He has had two of them though which suggests to me that he is going to arrive here pretty close to the mark. He draws ideally for Jay Ford to land on speed and I think if all is well with him and he runs to his best, that $7 is probably going to look a pretty good price. Happy to be with him. Transmitter is first up here and has shown some good ability in her career. She went through her grades quite nicely last campaign winning three of her four starts and she looks to be a filly on the improve. Her first up win to break her maiden at Kembla Grange was quite dominant in fact. She has trialled well leading into this suggesting she has come back well and providing Rachel King can offset that wide draw then I think she will be right in the finish. Happy to keep her on side around the $9-10 mark. She has shown speed in her recent trials but given the abundance of speed engaged here I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ridden quiet from that draw and she might be the one having the last shot at them. Above And Beyond is the horse that might improve sharply here. Not a lot went right for him first up on ANZAC Day. He was heavily backed which suggests he has come back well but didn’t show enough speed out of the gates to cross the leaders and was left wide and working. He stuck on fairly but never really looked like winning. He draws an inside gate here so hopefully he can jump and show enough speed to lead. If that is the case and he can do so without using up too much energy early he might be hard to run down. At double figure odds I think he is worth a ticket here.

Betting strategy

I will have $30 the win on Oxford Tycoon here pretty confident he starts shorter than $7 so happy to lock that price in! If he drifts it is probably a sign we are in trouble! I will have $20 the win on Transmitter and $15 the win on Above And Beyond!

Race Outlay

$65

Race 6

2:35pm

Suggested

Reelem In Ruby (No.9) & Constellations (No.14)

Dangers

Toryjoy (No.6), Jen Rules (No.10) & Alnaas (No.11)

This race is for the fillies and mares over the 1400m and it looks a pretty good race. Reelem In Rubyhas come up pretty short in the market and it is easy to see why based on the way she has returned this time in. She has only had the five starts but is already building up a very impressive record. Last campaign she won well first up before taking on a hot race second up where she was third behind Zalatte and Baller. Her two runs back this time in have been excellent. She was just touched off first up when giving away a long start and again gave away a pretty long start second up but reeled her rivals in to win running away and landing some big bets. She was backed in from $1.65 to $1.45 on track that day. She didn’t let the punters down. She looks to be a filly on the rise going through her grades. She gets into a bigger field here stepping up to the 1400m and I think that will suit her. I think the race might set up a bit better for her. I am hoping from the middle gate Tommy Berry won’t feel the need to get too far back on her here. If he can lob her midfield one off the fence and have her blending into the race within striking distance before the home turn then she is going to be very hard to hold out. On a day that looks pretty tough she looks the one favourite we can really narrow in on and have a decent bet. I think we will get around the $2.50 mark about her on the day just given that slight question mark of where she will be in the run given her pattern. I think around that price she is a good bet and keen to be with her. The horse I am going to save on in the race is Constellations. This mare has only had the two career starts but has clearly come back a much better horse this time in. She had her first start back in October last year on a heavy track at Kembla Grange and she was easy in the market and ran last and immediately spelled. This campaign she trialled well leading into the first up run, was heavily backed and won accordingly at Newcastle. She was never going to lose that race and while the winning margin was just over a length it could have been far greater as she was eased down over the final stages. I like the way she went about it and Anthony Cummings can bring these horses to town with good effect. She draws a nice middle gate and has no weight on her back after the claim for Brock Ryan and I think she looks a real danger to the favourite. At the double figure odds I think she is a good saving bet. Toryjoy has trialled well and I was on her for a few starts last time in and she let us down. I think she is talented and I am a bit nervous about her here but I think she will probably take this run. Should she run well here though we can certainly follow up with her second up as she looks to have come back well. Let’s just hope not too well to the extent that she wins here.

Betting strategy

I will have $70 the win on Reelem In Ruby and save with $20 the win on Constellations locking in the $10 about the latter!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 8

2:55pm

Suggested

Newsfan (No.5), Desert Lord (No.13) & Oriental Runner (No.16)

Dangers

Deprive (No.6) & Zonk (No.9)

This is probably the race of the day at Rosehill. There are some very promising horses going around here. The issue or potential issue here is that a lot of them are resuming and coming up against some lesser credentialed but fitter gallopers. That does make the race a little bit of a trap but I am still happy to bet into it. DepriveNewsfan and Desert Lord are the three horses that head the market. They all have considerable talent and all have a bit of a boom on them. Deprive only had the three runs last time in but made a big impression. He was beaten as an odds on favourite first up before stringing two excellent wins together in races that proved to be strong form references. He has had two trials leading into this first up assignment and should be hard to beat. He was beaten first up when last in work and even though that was over 1000m and this race is over 1200m I am just a bit wary of him here first up. He trialled to me like a horse that might be looking more for 1400m this time in potentially and given he come up the shortest price of those three resuming runners I was happy to back around him here. When I say happy, I am pretty nervous but going with those at the better price. Newsfan is a serious racehorse. He is another that just had the two runs when last in work. He was a dominant winner over this course and distance first up last time in before going down by the barest of margins over the 1300m here second up. We haven’t seen him at the races since then but he has had two nice trials to have him right for this first up run. I actually don’t mind him drawn out here. I am hoping he can land in a nice trailing position three wide with cover potentially and providing by this stage of the day it isn’t too much of a disadvantage to come a bit wider on the course then I think he might be able to build full momentum while Deprive is potentially locked up in a pocket. The early market suggests I might have that wrong as all the money has been for Deprive but I don’t think Newsfan should be more than double his price which he currently is so given that happy to be with him. I actually thought Desert Lord trialled the best out of all three. His form is certainly known for being better over a bit further but he has only had the one trial earlier in the week for this first up run so he might have a bit more freshness on his side. I just think this is a horse that is going to continue to improve with more racing. He draws ideally in gate four down in the weights for Tommy Berry here and I am hoping he might be able to hold a position not too far off the speed. If he can do that he should be right in the finish if he can run up to that trial. Happy to be with him. Given we are going on about all these fresh horses it wouldn’t surprise me if a fit horse could run well and cause a bit of a boilover. I thought the one at odds that might run a cheeky race was down the bottom in Oreintal Runner. This bloke doesn’t win out of turn but he is clearly fit and racing well. He looked home in the Wagga Town Plate last start but he probably just got left in front too soon and was a bit of a sitting shot late. He has an excellent 1200m record, he draws well and he gets in with absolutely no weight on his back here with just 50kgs after the claim for Brock Ryan. I just thought if there was to be an upset in the race he might be the one to provide it and at the $30 or thereabouts on offer he was worth a small ticket. Zonk was the other horse worth mentioning. She was really good winning first up and should jump close enough to the lead again here. She typically runs a bit of a flat one though second up after a good first up run so for that reason I am risking her in a very good race.

Betting strategy

I will have $35 the win on Newsfan and Desert Lord here and save with $10 the win on Oriental Runner!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 7

3:00pm

Suggested

I’m A Rippa (No.1), Violate (No.4), Ever Loyal (No.9) & Addictive Nature (No.11)

Dangers

Tyzone (No.6) & Chapter And Verse (No.10)

This is a cracking race. It is the BRC Sprint over the 1350m and it brings together quite a number of different form lines and quite a few in form horses. The horse with a bit of a buzz about him at the moment is clearly Chapter And Verse following a dominant win three weeks ago. He was first up that day at Eagle Farm and never ever looked like losing. The key was that he was able to lob relatively close to the speed and once they turned for home and he ambled up to the leaders the race looked as good as over and it was. He bounded clear to win by three lengths seemingly with a bit in hand. It was a dominant first up performance. He is starting to build an imposing record. He was well backed that day which suggested that he had come back well and he clearly has. Despite all that I am going to bet against him here. It is risky as he won so well first up but I think Doomben and this race represent a far bigger challenge to that of what he faced first up. He seems to relish racing at Eagle Farm as opposed to here and he certainly comes up against stiffer opposition in this race. Throw in the fact he has come up under $3 and I am just going to bet around him with a few other runners to hopefully get a result. I’m A Rippa looks ready to fire here third up from a spell. He has taken on a couple of strong races to kick off this campaign and while beaten hasn’t been disgraced. He decided to try and lead Redzel first up at Eagle Farm and tired late before leading into the straight last Saturday in the Doomben 10,000 but was ultimately cut down late and finished tenth. Despite finishing tenth he was only beaten just over three lengths. He comes back a notch or two in grade here, he gets up to his pet trip of 1350m. His record over this trip here at Doomben is excellent and he draws gate four to land on the bunny for Jeff Lloyd. Over this longer trip he should be able to find the lead more comfortably here and there doesn’t look to be too many other speed horses in the race so I think Jeff will be able to assume control in front. If that is the case then I’m A Rippa is going to be very hard to run down. Happy to be with him. I am going to keep the Kiwi raider in Ever Loyal on side. We saw this bloke come out to Australia off some good New Zealand form in early March when he ran at Randwick. He was backed relentlessly in that race. He was backed in early fixed odds markets and then normally you will see that even out a bit on course on the day but they kept coming for him on course and started a clear second favourite. He unfortunately performed poorly and was well beaten by Dreamforce and immediately shipped back to New Zealand. I am going to give him another chance here. He had a trial over there recently which he looked to go particularly well in and we know that Tony Pike has a really good record when bringing horse here to Brisbane. Ever Loyal draws ideally in gate five to get a lovely run just off the speed and around the $15 mark I am happy to be with him. Addictive Nature comes into this race third up after two fair runs this time in for the new stable. Danny O’Brien has been getting everything to win recently but he is seemingly struggling to work this horse out. He looked a bit dour first up over the 1200m behind Haunted before being really well backed at Flemington last start and being touched off by Fastnet Tempest in a race where it was hard to find too many excuses for him. I think the addition of blinkers here for the first time is crucial. I think you will see him ridden pretty positively by McEvoy and I have him coming across and landing outside the leader in I’m A Rippa. If he can do that without exerting too much energy I think there is every chance the two of them can own the race out in front so I am happy to be on Addictive Nature at the double figure odds. The mad roughy bet in the race is Violate. He has been taking on some seriously fast races in recent times against some good horses. That form around Streets Of Avalon from his Flemington win four starts back has been really strong and his last three runs have been in races where he probably hasn’t been suited. He struck wet tracks in his two Sydney runs one of which was the Doncaster and he was forced to lead at Bendigo which isn’t his go. I just think if he runs to his best this race is within his grasp. He draws to get a good run in behind the speed and the $40-50 that he has come up in early markets looks a big price so he is worth a bet for mine.

Betting strategy

Well the whole point of this strategy is trying to get Chapter And Verse beat! I will have $40 the win on I'm A Rippa, having half now at the $6 and the other half at Top Fluc on the day! I will save with $15 the win on Addictive Nature and Ever Loyal and I will lock in the $16 about Ever Loyal! I will also have $10 the win on Violate!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 8 - Doomben Cup

3:40pm

Suggested

Shillelagh (No.11), Youngstar (No.13) & Sixties Groove (No.17)

Dangers

Life Less Ordinary (No.2), Archedemus (No.6) & Kenedna (No.12)

This is the feature race of the day here. It is the Doomben Cup and it is another pretty challenging race. The horse I was most keen to back in the race was Sixties Groove the first emergency. I think he is a really big chance here. While a few of these horses in this race have been up for a while and this race may have been a little bit of an afterthought for them he comes into it still very new in this campaign and on the way up potentially. He hit the line well with the big weight first up in the Hawkesbury Cup behind Archedemus and obviously has a significant weight turnaround on that horse here under the weight for age conditions. He also should be open to plenty more improvement coming into this race second up whereas Archedemus has been up for some time so I am confident he can turn the tables on that galloper. Last campaign he came off a similar first up performance to win the Moe Cup second up. This is certainly a harder race than the Moe Cup but I think he finds a pretty good setup. He is unbeaten over the 2000m, he is twice a winner second up and he draws to land in a gun spot just off the speed from gate seven. I just think he is a great chance and the $12 being bet looks a really good price in a wide open race. Happy to be with him. Following on from that rationale I am happy to be with Youngstar who looks to have targeted this race after missing most of the Sydney autumn. The question mark is probably how well she is going following the bone chip operation after the Melbourne Cup last year. She did enough first up in the All Aged behind Pierata before leaping sharply in trip second up last start in the Hollindale and striking that heavy track. She was a big drifter in the betting that day and while she ran well, she never really looked like winning. She comes into this race third up and should be ready to fire. She raced really well here as a three year old through the winter carnival last year and I would expect her to be peaking her at her third run back. You only have to go back to her spring campaign to see that she wasn’t too far off the best horses we had going around and this is by no means a vintage Doomben Cup. I think if she can find her best form and get the right run in transit she will be hard to hold out so as I said I want to be in her corner. I also can’t let Shillelagh go around without me. She does fit into the afterthought category. She has run second in an Australian Cup back in March and then ran fifth in a Doncaster last month. She comes into this race off a five week break after chasing home Winx last start but clearly has a fair bit of class on her side coming into this race. She draws gate two to get the lovely smother in behind them for James McDonald and if he can replicate his ride on her that he produced on Derby Day at Flemington where she burst up the inside rail to win the big mares race to win she should be in the finish here. I don’t want to be losing on the race should she be winning so happy to have something on her also.

Betting strategy

I will have $20 the win on Sixties Groove locking in the $12 about him! I will also have $20 the win on Shillelagh and $35 the win on Youngstar!

Race Outlay

$75

Race 9

4:20pm

Suggested

Scarlet Dream (No.1) & Etana (No.14)

Dangers

Aliferous (No.2) & On The White Turf (No.15)

This is The Roses, the final lead up to the Queensland Oaks over the 2000m to finish the day on here. Not surprisingly we are seeing the Sydney form hold up pretty well through this carnival so far and that would certainly indicate that Scarlet Dream will be very hard to beat here should that trend continue. This is a promising staying filly that looks to have the Oaks written all over her. She resumed from a spell this time in with an excellent second at Rosehill before going to Kembla Grange and chasing home Pohutukawa. At her last two runs she has chased home the star filly Verry Elleegant in the Vinery and Oaks. She ran really well in the Oaks beating all bar that star filly. You would expect that form to hold up here. While it is a big field, it features a lot of fillies trying to make their way up through the grades and she is proven and has the form on the board. She has been kept up to the mark since the Oaks with a solid 1200m trial two weeks ago. She was given a good workout that day and certainly went through the line strongly. Blake Shinn rode like a man possessed around this track last week and if he can produce another gem here from what is potentially an awkward wide draw and give Scarlet Dream the right run in transit then you would think she would be winning. I think she just needs that touch of luck. She is around the $2.50 mark in most markets at the moment which looks a fair price and I am happy to be in her corner to finish the day here. I am going to save on Etana just in case. I am convinced this filly is going really well at the moment, she just isn’t getting the best of luck in running. Since winning at Sale five starts back she has been caught wide at Flemington behind Spanish Whisper when not beaten far and then did plenty of work at The Valley behind Princess Jenni. She then came back in trip at Randwick and hit the line well before just having to go back to what was maybe the slower inside part of the track at the Gold Coast last start behind Winning Ways. She was just held up for a run for a few strides there too while a few other horses were building momentum into the race on that heavy track. I thought she went through the line strongly and should be suited here around Doomben. She draws gate two for Johnny Allen so I would expect her to land right on speed and if the favourite Scarlet Dream ends up getting a bit too far back and this filly is on speed and pouncing then she might be hard to get past. At that $9-10 mark I am happy to be saving on her.

Betting strategy

I will have $80 the win on Scarlet Dream here and save with $20 the win on Etana!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 1

12:31pm

Suggested

Ginny Ann (No.5) & Balaabel (No.7)

Dangers

Absolute Flirt (No.3)

Group One racing again comes from Adelaide this Saturday as their carnival comes to a close with the running of the Goodwood Handicap. The racing has been strong in recent weeks and this looks a good meeting to close the carnival out. The preview is starting to get pretty lengthy so I might try and condense this one a bit as none of you will even make it down here by the time you get through the other races. The weather in Adelaide has also been excellent just like Melbourne and as a result we will be racing on a good track on Saturday. Like a few of the other venues around the country I am getting started nice and early and kicking off in the first race which is for the two year olds over the 1200m. Half of the field comes through the race won by Absolute Flirt here two weeks ago so that certainly looks the key form reference. Balaabel was on debut that day when chasing home Absolute Flirt and I am pretty confident that she will be able to turn the tables here. That debut run was over the 1050m and Absolute Flirt was up on speed right behind the two leaders while Balaabel was further back and trying to run those leaders down. Absolute Flirt was just able to steal a march at the top of the straight and despite Balaabel coming strongly late she just failed. I think she is certainly open to more improvement from that debut run and she gives the impression that the step up to the 1200m will suit. All the form around Absolute Flirt has been standing up so I would expect it to again in this race and expect both to run well but I do have a leaning to Balaabel and at the slightly better price I am happy to be with her to improve off the debut run and turn the tables here. I also want to have something on Ginny Ann who won impressively on debut at Warrnambool in a rich Vobis two year old race. There was a fair spruik around for this horse prior to that debut run off a couple of handy jump outs and she was well backed and won accordingly. I like the way she sat off the speed and really pinned the ears back at the top of the straight to run her rivals down. That was over the 1000m and she also gave the impression that she would be suited by the step up to the 12000m here. She draws out but it is a small field so I am not too concerned about her settling back off the speed and if she is within striking distance I think she is capable of being really strong late and getting over the top of them. As I have mentioned a few times, The Bool form is holding up well and as a result I want to be saving on her here.

Betting strategy

I will have $65 the win on Balaabel here and save with $25 the win on Ginny Ann!

Race Outlay

$90

Race 3

1:46pm

Suggested

Rock On (No.1), Chequered Flag (No.3) & Nashville Sound (No.11)

Dangers

Valac (No.5) & Instigator (No.10)

This race is for the stayers over the 2500m and it has drawn together a pretty competitive field. This is typically not the type of race I would normally bet into particularly in Adelaide but I thought there were some good betting opportunities here. Nashville Sound in particular is a horse that I am interested in. He has been pretty good to me in his short career so far and he is racing really well this campaign. He is a horse that has always shown good ability but this campaign he has really gone to a new level and started to put it all together. He resumed with a good run at Warrnambool when first up over the 2000m and heavily backed. He just got pipped in that race before he went to Penola and absolutely bolted in their Cup winning easily. He then went to The Bool and looked one of the better bets of the day on the first day of the carnival and he didn’t let his followers down. It was a good ride from Declan Bates as he offset the wide draw early and had him over and across outside the leader very quickly. He then nearly got himself into a spot of bother as a few horses went around him and I thought he was going to miss the boat for a few strides. It turned out well though as he was able to ease across heels in the straight and I love the way he pinned the ears back and gunned his rivals down late to score an easy victory. He looks the horse in the race that is very much on an upward spiral. He is a four year old having just his ninth career start and he is in really good form. He is reunited with Raquel Clark here who rode him in the Penola Cup with such confidence and from a middle gate I imagine he will be landing up on speed again and pretty hard to get past. I am pretty much obliged to stay with him. I think his main opposition may come from this former New Zealand galloper in Rock On. This galloper had his first run for the Gelagotis stable at Caulfield last Saturday where he was just touched off by Alfarris. He loomed up and looked the winner in the straight there but the other horse was just able to kick back and nose him out. Rock On was over a month between runs into that race and that may have just told in the final stages. I think on the back up here with that run under his belt he is going to come to the races fitter and ready to rumble on Saturday. He is a horse that can take up a position on speed and will be in the firing line for most of the way so for that reason happy to be in his corner. The other horse I am going to have something on in the race is Chequered Flag. This galloper is making his name more as a jumper nowadays but he is still a very competent flat horse. He won strongly at Warrnambool on the final day of the carnival and will no doubt probably be using this race as a stepping stone to some of the stronger jumps races later in the season. Like I said though he does have some decent flat ability and his best flat form would certainly be capable of winning a race of this nature. I think because his recent win was over the jumps the market may be ignoring him a little here and for that reason he has come up over the odds. Dwayne Dunn rides and if the others are paddling late he will be really strong and around the $15-20 mark I think he is well worth a ticket.

Betting strategy

I will have $40 the win on Nashville Sound here, $25 the win on Rock On and $15 the win on Chequered Flag!

Race Outlay

$80

Race 4

2:26pm

Suggested

Nordic Symphony (No.2) & Elusive Rose (No.5)

Dangers

Rock Dove (No.1) & Etheridge (No.6)

This is the SA Fillies Classic for the three year old fillies over the 2500m. Nordic Symphony does look close to the good thing of the day with even luck. She is really starting to put it together this filly and I would think she just needs to maintain her level and have luck in running to be saluting here. Her last three runs have been where I have started following her. I liked her run at Sandown Hillside four starts back and then she was about four to five weeks between runs for her next start where I had something on her at Sandown Lakeside and she had no luck at all behind Zargos. I then had something on her at Flemington where she shared the spoils with Orcein at massive odds. She then came here for the Schweppes Oaks two weeks ago and was pretty unlucky. She was right alongside Princess Jenni in the run but at the moment Princes Jenni went back inside horses and got the run for Ollie, Nordic Symphony was trying to get to the outside and she just got baulked for a run. She had to be eased across heels and lost a fair bit of momentum while Princess Jenni was building up the revs and driving through the middle. Once Nordic Symphony got out she hit the line strongly but the bird had flown. She gave every impression in that race with how she hit the line that she will relish the 2500m here. She draws a lovely gate for Craig Williams to get a good run just off the speed and I think if she gets the luck in running here she will be hard to hold out. Keen to be with her. I am going to save on Elusive Rose who was one of the heartbreak stories from The Bool. I watched that race on the final day she was in with a couple of people in our Jumps Tipping competition and the obviously asked “have you got a tip in this one for us Baron” and I gave them Elusive Rose at around the $25-30 mark. She went forward early landed in the box seat, the leader rolled off the fence, she slipped up the inside and kicked around the bend and looked all over the winner. We were standing at about the 200m mark and when she ran past us we thought she was home and gave her a decent cheer, they then came to the line and two horses dived at her. We couldn’t tell but thought she might have held on. She ended up not even getting second and running third. It was a brutal loss, capped off by the fact the horse I save on was beaten into second in the three way photo. For those fortunate enough to Mount Gambier form on a Friday last week they would have seen her lob there in a very winnable race and she duly got the job done by a big margin. She is big odds again here but she certainly comes into the race in very good form. She looks certain to run the trip right out and has come up around the $25-30 mark here so happy to save on her at that price.

Betting strategy

I will have $90 the win on Nordic Symphony here and save with $10 the win on Elusive Rose!

Race Outlay

$100

Race 7 - The Goodwood

4:26pm

Suggested

Spright (No.2) & Iconoclasm (No.10)

Dangers

Booker (No.1) & Cool Passion (No.8)

This is the big race of the day. It is the Goodwood Handicap over the 1200m. Look, this isn’t a vintage Goodwood by any stretch of the imagination and I found it a pretty difficult race to decipher. I have to include it in the preview though as last year I didn’t include the race and backed Santa Ana Lane at $30 and he got up. So I better not do that this year. Unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any value to that extent here. Adam Blencowe described the race as being like The Wangoom on twitter earlier in the week and it is hard to argue with him. For that reason I stuck to the obvious. Spright is a genuine Group One mare who has raced against some of our best sprinters and been very competitive with them. She finally broke through for an overdue win in the Sangster last start and I am hoping that breakthrough might lead to more wins for her. She is clearly going very well at the moment. The issue with her is obviously her racing pattern. She just gets too far out of her ground. I think Morphettville as a track though is forgiving to her style of racing. It is a straight that generally allows backmarkers plenty of time to build into their work and hit the line strongly. She went back to last or near enough to it last start and was still able to reel her rivals in and do so quite comfortably. I actually don’t think she is too badly off at the weights here being just a few kilos above the minimum given the standard of her opposition. I don’t mind her drawn wide given her pattern and Ollie will know her well now he has had that one ride on her. I think she is just the obvious and happy to be with her again. Iconoclasm is the horse I am going to save on. This former Darren Weir trained galloper has obviously come back well for Danny O’Brien this campaign. He was just really solidly backed all the way through betting first up at Caulfield over the 1200m. It was an excellent ride by Craig Williams too as he just made sure he stayed close enough to Miss Leonidas in the run and knew he would be strong enough to run over her late. He then showed good tenacity to fight off Miss Vixen. I think he is the lightly raced horse on the up that could run a race here. He draws out for Craig and gets some weight relief and I think he can run well so will save on him. It is a tricky race though and had it not been The Goodwood I probably would have been happy to let it go through to the keeper. I am certainly not as keen as the day Glamour Puss won this race back in 2005, but hopefully Danny O’Brien can have similar luck here with Iconoclasm.

Betting strategy

I will have $55 the win on Spright here and save with $25 the win on Iconoclasm!

Race Outlay

$80

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